A multidimensional approach to child poverty in vietnam

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HCMC VIETNAM – NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS A MULTIDIMENSIONAL APPROACH TO CHILD POVERTY IN VIETNAM A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS By LE THI KIM NHUNG Academic Supervisor: Dr TRAN TIEN KHAI Ho Chi Minh, December 2014 Le Thi Kim Nhung Master’s Thesis VNP19-2015 ABSTRACT In this study, multidimensional child poverty in Vietnam is approached using Young Lives Round dataset In total, 2898 children were analyzed after missing observations were taken out Six dimensions with 16 indicators were selected based on previous researches, public consensus and data availability These dimensions are: Education, Health, Nutrition, Shelter, Child Work and Leisure The Alkire and Foster (2011a) counting approach is applied to create multidimensional child poverty index and break down application is used for measuring the depth and intensity of child poverty When the poverty cut off point is set at level k=0.3, 30% of children were identified to be in multidimensional poor The shelter dimension contributes most deprived indicators to overall multidimensional child poverty rate while child insurance draws slightly attention due to its contribution to overal rate followed the shelter indications With respect to regional disparity, this is specially critical in upland northern region where children are greatly affected by multidimensional poverty Using poverty line from the cut off point, logistic regression model was carried out to determine major factors that causes overall multidimensional poverty Household characteristics including parents’ education, employment and household income have significant impact on poverty rate and effect high transition probabilities for the child moving into and out of multidimensional poor condition Key words: Multidimensional poverty measurement, Child Poverty, Deprivation, Alkire & Foster Methodology, Young Lives Le Thi Kim Nhung Master’s Thesis VNP19-2015 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Completion this thesis is a both painful and enjoyable experience Fortunately, I received a lot of help and support from many people for making this thesis possible I would like to use this opportunity to express my gratitude to all of them First and foremost, I would like to give my special appreciation and thanks to my academic supervisor, Dr Tran Tien Khai, for always being helpful, patient and encouraged His comments and instructive criticism advices helped me a lot in writing this thesis Similarly, I sincerely thank to the VNP Scientific Committee and staffs of Vietnam-Netherlands Programme for their helpfulness and willingness in providing useful information during VNP thesis process Lastly, I am also hugely appreciated to my family and my classmates at VNP K19 who supported me generously for completing this thesis Le Thi Kim Nhung Master’s Thesis VNP19-2015 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES LIST OF TABLES LIST OF APPENDICES ABREVIATIONS CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION Problems Statement Research Objective 10 Main Research Question 11 Research Scope 11 Research Methodology 11 Thesis Structure 11 CHAPTER II: LITERATURE REVIEW 13 Definition 13 1.1 Child Poverty 13 1.2 Measuring Child Poverty 14 Dimensions and Indicators in Multidimensional Child Poverty 16 Child poverty Profile 20 Conceptual framework 22 Le Thi Kim Nhung Master’s Thesis VNP19-2015 Summary 22 CHAPTER III: METHODOLOGY 23 DATA 23 METHODOLOGY 24 2.1 Calculation Multidimensional Child Poverty Index (MPI) 24 2.2 Rationale of dimensions and indicators selection 26 2.3 Weights & Poverty Cutoff 33 2.4 Determinants of child poverty 35 2.4.1 Child Characteristics 35 2.4.2 Household Characteristics 35 2.4.3 Community Characteristics 38 2.5 Econometrics model 38 Summary 42 CHAPTER IV: EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 43 Overview Child Poverty in Vietnam 43 Indicators Deprivation 45 Poverty cut off and MPI estimation 49 Censored Headcount and Related contributions to MPI 51 Determinants of Child Poverty 52 Summary 56 Le Thi Kim Nhung Master’s Thesis VNP19-2015 CHAPTER V: CONCLUSION 58 Conclusion 58 Key Lesson learned and policy options 59 Limitation and future research 61 REFERENCE 62 APPENDICES 67 Le Thi Kim Nhung Master’s Thesis VNP19-2015 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Conceptual Framework 22 Figure 2: Monetary and multidimensional child poverty in Vietnam 2008 divided by Urban, Rural and Ethnics 44 Figure 3: Monetary and Multidimensional child poverty in Vietnam, 2008 divided by Regions 45 Figure 4: Proportion of children deprived in each indicators 46 Figure 5: Indicators deprivation by gender based on Young Lives round 47 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Selected indicators and deprivation threshold (Alkire & Roche, 2012) 18 Table 2: Selected Domains, Indicators and Deprivations Cutoff 33 Table 3: Determinants of child poverty and model specifications 40 Table 4: Multidimensional child poverty estimate on various cut off point 50 Table 5: Contribution of indicators to MPI 51 Table 6: Decomposition of Multidimensional Poverty indices by region 52 Table 7: Descriptive statistics of Child Poverty determinants variables 53 Table 8: Logistic Regression estimates of determinants of child poverty 54 LIST OF APPENDICES Appendix 1: Indicators for measuring multidimensional child poverty 67 Appendix 2: Logistic regression 74 Appendix 3: Regression result with Odds Ratio 75 Appendix 4: Marginal Effect 76 Appendix 5: Wald test 77 Le Thi Kim Nhung Master’s Thesis ABREVIATIONS GSO General Statistics Office HDI Human Development Index MDG Millennium Development Goal MPI Multidimensional Poverty Index VHLSS Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey MOLISA Ministry of Labor, Invalids and Social Affairs UN United Nations UNGA United Nations General Assembly VNP19-2015 Le Thi Kim Nhung Master’s Thesis VNP19-2015 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION Problems Statement Child poverty approach has become an area of focus for last two decades resulting from widely acknowledgement of child focused perspective in poverty eradication (Gordon, 2003; Minujin, Delamonica, González, & Davidziuk, 2005) Major reasons contributed to this increasing acknowledgement include these: Firstly, children are at a higher risk in poverty than adults due to their dependence on distribution of resources from their parents, household and communities in their direct environment (White, Leavy, & Masters, 2003); Secondly, if children grow up in poverty, they seem to be in poor condition in their adulthood as well (Corak, 2006a) Next, children’s basic needs are specific and totally different from adult’s, especially needs for nutrition and education in early stages, and the deprivation of these needs in childhood can cause permanent effect on their later outcome (Duncan & Brooks-Gunn, 1999) As a result, academic and policy makers attempt to target these needs effectively, based on empirical evidence of child poverty’s experiences (Boyden, 2005) and the use of multidimensional approach is necessary to capture these basic needs in identifying indicators for measuring child poverty (UNICEF, 2007b) In Vietnam, the rates of children who are considered in poverty condition remain high despite the rapid economic growth in the last decade since the renovation in late 1980s has large impact on country poverty reduction Hinsdale et al (2013) illustrate that one-third of Vietnamese children, estimated around million children are considered in multidimensional poor In addition, the high deprivation that children, are facing draws attention of further studies on children’s basic needs for effective policy intervention Despite the interest, there have not been comprehensive analyses of poverty towards children, as well as research studies investigating the causes of child poverty, presenting the knowledge gap for policy Le Thi Kim Nhung Master’s Thesis VNP19-2015 implication policy and target directed towards children In fact, numerous studies were conducted towards child poverty and deprivation through multidimensional approach in Vietnam (Roelen, 2013; Roelen & Gassmann, 2012; Roelen, Gassmann, & de Neubourg, 2010; UNICEF, 2008) However, these studies only focused on views of choosing methods measuring child poverty and deprivation through multidimensional approach, rather than investigating the characteristics of children who fall into poverty conditions There are many debates in previous researches on child poverty indicators for measurement in both monetary and multidimensional approach (Gordon, 2003) Therefore, choosing an appropriate methodology to measure child poverty and define factors impacting child poverty may result in effective policy implications and interventions, which better identify specific poverty situations (Roelen, Gassmann, & Neubourg, 2009) In addition, children’s living conditions depend mostly on their parents or caregivers’ well-being, thus it is necessary to understand causes underlying household poor’s conditions, such as economic and demographic factors that drive individual earning capacity The objective of this study is to demonstrate the choices of dimensions, indicators for measuring child poverty in Vietnam through multidimensional approach and estimate probability of a child being poor by using data from Young Lives Survey In particular, this study expects to investigate poverty situation among children aged under 15 in Vietnam and determine factors that decrease or increase the probability of child poverty Research Objective The two research objectives are specified as follows: (i) Identify the dimensions, indicators of child poverty in Vietnam through multidimensional approach (ii) Identify the determinants of child poverty 10 Le Thi Kim Nhung Master’s Thesis VNP19-2015 Boyden, J., Hardgrove, A., & Knowles, C (2005) Continuity and change in poor children's lives: evidence from Young LivesChildren Living in Poverty-A review of child poverty definitions, measurements, and policies (pp 25-27) Bradshaw, T K (2007) Theories of poverty and anti-poverty programs in community development Community Development, 38(1), 7-25 Chadwick, E (1842) Report on the Sanitary Condition of the Labouring Population Og Great: Britain: Supplementary Report on the Results of Special Inquiry Into the Practice of Interment in Towns (Vol 1): HM Stationery Office Chen, W.-H., & Corak, M (2008) Child poverty and changes in child poverty Demography, 45(3), 537-553 Corak, M (2005) Principles and practicalities for measuring child poverty in the rich countries Corak, M (2006a) Do poor children become poor adults? 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Codes are: 00= No, 01= Yes The child is deprived on this indicator if the answer is no Start formal school: STRAGER3 At what age did this child start formal school? The child is deprived on this indicator if the answer is over Nutrition Nutrition: Zbmi BMI-for-age z-score The child is deprived on this indicator if the BMI z score is e region2 region3 region4, nolog Logistic regression Log likelihood = Number of obs LR chi2(15) Prob > chi2 Pseudo R2 -1328.871 h_30p Coef dum_gender f_edu2 f_edu3 f_edu4 m_edu2 m_edu3 m_edu4 f_job2 f_job3 m_job2 m_job3 hhincome region2 region3 region4 _cons 4186772 -.3372687 -.7023784 -.7268297 -.4508913 -.8700003 -1.298306 2493186 1754284 -.24543 -.3359355 -1.391288 -1.652423 -2.340095 -1.516085 9.675436 Std Err .0972455 1187709 1755897 3773167 1154731 2226891 4914164 3969799 3975997 1408641 1651781 1092361 1712846 1639866 172807 7929934 z 4.31 -2.84 -4.00 -1.93 -3.90 -3.91 -2.64 0.63 0.44 -1.74 -2.03 -12.74 -9.65 -14.27 -8.77 12.20 P>|z| 0.000 0.005 0.000 0.054 0.000 0.000 0.008 0.530 0.659 0.081 0.042 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 74 = = = = 2898 806.16 0.0000 0.2327 [95% Conf Interval] 2280795 -.5700554 -1.046528 -1.466357 -.6772143 -1.306463 -2.261464 -.5287476 -.6038528 -.5215184 -.6596786 -1.605387 -1.988135 -2.661503 -1.854781 8.121198 6092749 -.104482 -.3582288 0126974 -.2245682 -.4335377 -.3351473 1.027385 9547095 0306585 -.0121924 -1.177189 -1.316712 -2.018688 -1.17739 11.22967 Master’s Thesis Le Thi Kim Nhung VNP19-2015 Appendix 3: Regression result with Odds Ratio logit h_30p dum_gender f_edu2 f_edu3 f_edu4 m_edu2 m_edu3 m_edu4 f_job2 f_job3 m_job2 m_job3 hhincom > e region2 region3 region4, nolog or Logistic regression Log likelihood = Number of obs LR chi2(15) Prob > chi2 Pseudo R2 -1328.871 h_30p Odds Ratio dum_gender f_edu2 f_edu3 f_edu4 m_edu2 m_edu3 m_edu4 f_job2 f_job3 m_job2 m_job3 hhincome region2 region3 region4 _cons 1.51995 713717 4954056 4834392 6370601 4189514 272994 1.283151 1.191757 7823681 7146692 2487546 191585 0963184 2195698 15921.67 Std Err .1478083 0847688 0869881 1824097 0735633 0932959 1341537 509385 4738421 1102075 1180477 027173 0328156 0157949 0379432 12625.78 z 4.31 -2.84 -4.00 -1.93 -3.90 -3.91 -2.64 0.63 0.44 -1.74 -2.03 -12.74 -9.65 -14.27 -8.77 12.20 = = = = 2898 806.16 0.0000 0.2327 P>|z| [95% Conf Interval] 0.000 0.005 0.000 0.054 0.000 0.000 0.008 0.530 0.659 0.081 0.042 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.256185 5654941 3511548 2307647 5080302 2707761 1041978 5893426 5467013 5936185 5170175 2008118 1369506 0698432 1564872 3365.049 75 1.839097 900791 6989131 1.012778 7988611 6482119 7152328 2.79375 2.597916 1.031133 9878817 3081436 2680151 1328297 3080819 75333.1 Master’s Thesis Le Thi Kim Nhung VNP19-2015 Appendix 4: Marginal Effect margin, dydx(*) atmeans Conditional marginal effects Model VCE : OIM Number of obs = 2898 Expression : Pr(h_30p), predict() dy/dx w.r.t : dum_gender f_edu2 f_edu3 f_edu4 m_edu2 m_edu3 m_edu4 f_job2 f_job3 m_job2 m_job3 hhincome region2 region3 region4 at : dum_gender = 4906832 (mean) f_edu2 = 4755003 (mean) f_edu3 = 1828847 (mean) f_edu4 = 0752243 (mean) m_edu2 = 5141477 (mean) m_edu3 = 1166322 (mean) m_edu4 = 0614217 (mean) f_job2 = 5479641 (mean) f_job3 = 4347826 (mean) m_job2 = 5955832 (mean) m_job3 = 2553485 (mean) hhincome = 6.224982 (mean) region2 = 2229124 (mean) region3 = 4520359 (mean) region4 = 2118703 (mean) dy/dx dum_gender f_edu2 f_edu3 f_edu4 m_edu2 m_edu3 m_edu4 f_job2 f_job3 m_job2 m_job3 hhincome region2 region3 region4 0703483 -.0566696 -.1180173 -.1221257 -.0757611 -.146182 -.2181481 0418918 0294764 -.0412384 -.0564456 -.2337715 -.2776488 -.393195 -.2547405 Delta-method Std Err .0163076 0200508 0294761 0629719 0194425 0370914 0811043 0666911 0668015 0236518 0277701 0177963 030008 0285045 03012 z 4.31 -2.83 -4.00 -1.94 -3.90 -3.94 -2.69 0.63 0.44 -1.74 -2.03 -13.14 -9.25 -13.79 -8.46 P>|z| 0.000 0.005 0.000 0.052 0.000 0.000 0.007 0.530 0.659 0.081 0.042 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 76 [95% Conf Interval] 038386 -.0959684 -.1757893 -.2455484 -.1138677 -.2188798 -.3771097 -.0888204 -.1014522 -.0875951 -.110874 -.2686517 -.3364634 -.4490628 -.3137747 1023106 -.0173709 -.0602453 0012971 -.0376545 -.0734841 -.0591865 172604 1604049 0051182 -.0020173 -.1988913 -.2188341 -.3373271 -.1957064 Master’s Thesis Le Thi Kim Nhung VNP19-2015 Appendix 5: Wald test test dum_gender f_edu2 f_edu3 f_edu4 m_edu2 m_edu3 m_edu4 f_job2 f_job3 m_job2 m_job3 hhincome region > region3 region4, ( 1) ( 2) ( 3) ( 4) ( 5) ( 6) ( 7) ( 8) ( 9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) [h_30p]dum_gender = [h_30p]f_edu2 = [h_30p]f_edu3 = [h_30p]f_edu4 = [h_30p]m_edu2 = [h_30p]m_edu3 = [h_30p]m_edu4 = [h_30p]f_job2 = [h_30p]f_job3 = [h_30p]m_job2 = [h_30p]m_job3 = [h_30p]hhincome = [h_30p]region2 = [h_30p]region3 = [h_30p]region4 = chi2( 15) = Prob > chi2 = 500.07 0.0000 77 ... poverty to create a meaningful and reliable poverty index Basically, data availability is the most considerable issue when dimensions and indicators are selected in multidimensional approach towards... measuring child poverty and deprivation through multidimensional approach, rather than investigating the characteristics of children who fall into poverty conditions There are many debates in. .. UNICEF and the Ministry of Labor, Invalids and Social Affairs (MOLISA) in 2008, a new approach of multidimensional child poverty was suggested and applied in empirical examples using VHLSS and MICS