Free ebooks ==> www.Ebook777.com www.Ebook777.com Free ebooks ==> www.Ebook777.com UNDERSTANDING SEA-LEVEL RISE AND VARIABILITY EDITED BY JOHN A CHURCH CENTRE FOR AUSTRALIAN WEATHER AND CLIMATE RESEARCH, A PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN CSIRO AND THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, HOBART, AUSTRALIA PHILIP L WOODWORTH PROUDMAN OCEANOGRAPHIC LABORATORY, LIVERPOOL, UK THORKILD AARUP INTERGOVERNMENTAL OCEANOGRAPHIC COMMISSION, UNESCO, PARIS, FRANCE AND W STANLEY WILSON NOAA SATELLITE & INFORMATION SERVICE, SILVER SPRING, MARYLAND, USA A John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Publication www.Ebook777.com UNDERSTANDING SEA-LEVEL RISE AND VARIABILITY Free ebooks ==> www.Ebook777.com In Memoriam: M.B Dyurgerov The Editors and Authors of this volume wish to honor the memory of Dr Mark B Dyurgerov and acknowledge his valuable contributions to it He will be missed by the glaciological and sea-level communities as an honest broker and an excellent scientist www.Ebook777.com UNDERSTANDING SEA-LEVEL RISE AND VARIABILITY EDITED BY JOHN A CHURCH CENTRE FOR AUSTRALIAN WEATHER AND CLIMATE RESEARCH, A PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN CSIRO AND THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, HOBART, AUSTRALIA PHILIP L WOODWORTH PROUDMAN OCEANOGRAPHIC LABORATORY, LIVERPOOL, UK THORKILD AARUP INTERGOVERNMENTAL OCEANOGRAPHIC COMMISSION, UNESCO, PARIS, FRANCE AND W STANLEY WILSON NOAA SATELLITE & INFORMATION SERVICE, SILVER SPRING, MARYLAND, USA A John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Publication This edition first published 2010, © 2010 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd Blackwell Publishing was acquired by John Wiley & Sons in February 2007 Blackwell’s publishing program has been merged with Wiley’s global Scientific, Technical and Medical business to form Wiley-Blackwell Registered office: John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex, PO19 8SQ, UK Editorial offices: 9600 Garsington Road, Oxford, OX4 2DQ, UK The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex, PO19 8SQ, UK 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030-5774, USA For details of our global editorial offices, for customer services and for information about how to apply for permission to reuse the copyright material in this book please see our website at www wiley.com/wiley-blackwell The right of the author to be identified as the author of this work has been asserted in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, except as permitted by the UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, without the prior permission of the publisher Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats Some content that appears in print may not be available in electronic books Designations used by companies to distinguish their products are often claimed as trademarks All brand names and product names used in this book are trade names, service marks, trademarks or 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Premedia Limited Printed in Singapore 2010 Contents Editor Biographies List of Contributors Foreword Acknowledgments Abbreviations and Acronyms Introduction Philip L Woodworth, John A Church, Thorkild Aarup, and W Stanley Wilson References Impacts of and Responses to Sea-Level Rise Robert J Nicholls 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Climate Change and Global/Relative Sea-Level Rise 2.3 Sea-Level Rise and Resulting Impacts 2.4 Framework and Methods for the Analysis of Sea-Level-Rise Impacts 2.5 Recent Impacts of Sea-Level Rise 2.6 Future Impacts of Sea-Level Rise 2.7 Responding to Sea-Level Rise 2.8 Next Steps 2.9 Concluding Remarks Acknowledgments References A First-Order Assessment of the Impact of Long-Term Trends in Extreme Sea Levels on Offshore Structures and Coastal Refineries Ralph Rayner and Bev MacKenzie 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Design Considerations 3.3 Impact of Long-Term Trends in Extreme Sea Levels 3.4 Evaluating the Economic Impact 3.5 Conclusions References x xi xvii xix xxii 15 17 17 18 22 25 27 30 37 40 41 43 43 52 52 54 55 57 58 59 vi Contents Paleoenvironmental Records, Geophysical Modeling, and Reconstruction of Sea-Level Trends and Variability on Centennial and Longer Timescales Kurt Lambeck, Colin D Woodroffe, Fabrizio Antonioli, Marco Anzidei, W Roland Gehrels, Jacques Laborel, and Alex J Wright 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Past Sea-Level Changes 4.3 Sea-Level Indicators 4.4 Geophysical Modeling of Variability in Relative Sea-Level History 4.5 Regional Case Studies 4.6 Discussion and Conclusions Acknowledgments References Modern Sea-Level-Change Estimates Gary T Mitchum, R Steven Nerem, Mark A Merrifield, and W Roland Gehrels 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Estimates from Proxy Sea-Level Records 5.3 Estimates of Global Sea-Level Change from Tide Gauges 5.4 Estimates of Global Sea-Level Change from Satellite Altimetry 5.5 Recommendations Acknowledgments References Ocean Temperature and Salinity Contributions to Global and Regional Sea-Level Change John A Church, Dean Roemmich, Catia M Domingues, Josh K Willis, Neil J White, John E Gilson, Detlef Stammer, Armin Köhl, Don P Chambers, Felix W Landerer, Jochem Marotzke, Jonathan M Gregory, Tatsuo Suzuki, Anny Cazenave, and Pierre-Yves Le Traon 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Direct Estimates of Steric Sea-Level Rise 6.3 Estimating Steric Sea-Level Change Using Ocean Syntheses 6.4 Inferring Steric Sea Level from Time-Variable Gravity and Sea Level 6.5 Modeling Steric Sea-Level Rise 6.6 Conclusions and Recommendations Acknowledgments References 61 61 62 73 84 88 95 105 105 122 122 123 126 133 137 138 138 143 143 145 152 154 156 166 168 168 Free ebooks ==> www.Ebook777.com Contents 10 Cryospheric Contributions to Sea-Level Rise and Variability Konrad Steffen, Robert H Thomas, Eric Rignot, J Graham Cogley, Mark B Dyurgerov, Sarah C.B Raper, Philippe Huybrechts, and Edward Hanna 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Mass-Balance Techniques 7.3 Ice-Sheet Mass Balance 7.4 Mass Balance of Glaciers and Ice Caps 7.5 Glacier, Ice-Cap, and Ice-Sheet Modeling 7.6 Summary and Recommendations References Terrestrial Water-Storage Contributions to Sea-Level Rise and Variability P.C.D (Chris) Milly, Anny Cazenave, James S Famiglietti, Vivien Gornitz, Katia Laval, Dennis P Lettenmaier, Dork L Sahagian, John M Wahr, and Clark R Wilson 8.1 Introduction 8.2 Analysis Tools 8.3 Climate-Driven Changes of Terrestrial Water Storage 8.4 Direct Anthropogenic Changes of Terrestrial Water Storage 8.5 Synthesis 8.6 Recommendations References Geodetic Observations and Global Reference Frame Contributions to Understanding Sea-Level Rise and Variability Geoff Blewitt, Zuheir Altamimi, James Davis, Richard Gross, Chung-Yen Kuo, Frank G Lemoine, Angelyn W Moore, Ruth E Neilan, Hans-Peter Plag, Markus Rothacher, C.K Shum, Michael G Sideris, Tilo Schöne, Paul Tregoning, and Susanna Zerbini 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Global and Regional Reference Systems 9.3 Linking GPS to Tide Gauges and Tide-Gauge Benchmarks 9.4 Recommendations for Geodetic Observations Acknowledgments References Surface Mass Loading on a Dynamic Earth: Complexity and Contamination in the Geodetic Analysis of Global Sea-Level Trends Jerry X Mitrovica, Mark E Tamisiea, Erik R Ivins, L.L.A (Bert) Vermeersen, Glenn A Milne, and Kurt Lambeck 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Glacial Isostatic Adjustment www.Ebook777.com vii 177 177 178 180 192 200 210 214 226 226 229 236 241 246 248 249 256 256 263 274 279 281 281 285 285 290 414 John A Church et al Syvitski et al 2009) As shown in Chapter 2, rising sea levels will result in a number of impacts including (1) more frequent coastal inundation/submergence (Figure 1.12), (2) ecosystem change, such as salt-marsh and mangrove loss, (3) increased erosion of beaches (70% of which have been retreating over the past century with less than 10% prograding; Bird 1993) and soft cliffs (Figure 1.3), and (4) salinization of surface and ground-waters Low-lying islands and deltaic regions are especially vulnerable Indicative estimates suggest that about 200 million people, and infrastructure worth several trillion dollars, are threatened by coastal floods today; the actual exposure may be larger (Chapters and 3; Nicholls et al 2007a) This exposure continues to grow at a rapid rate, primarily due to socioeconomic trends, and in the absence of adaptation, risks are growing as sea levels rise To effectively manage these increasing risks, appropriate information on how and why sea level is changing and will change during the 21st century and beyond is essential Appropriate adaptation can significantly reduce the impact of sea-level rise Planned adaptation will range from retreat from rising sea levels, through planning and zoning of vulnerable coastal regions (Figure 13.7a), accommodation through modification of coastal infrastructure, and the construction of facilities like the cyclone centers used so effectively in Bangladesh (Figure 13.7b), to protection of highly valued coastal regions through highly sophisticated barriers like the Thames Barrage protecting London and the Maeslantkering storm-surge barrier protecting Rotterdam (Figures 13.7c and d) Planned adaptation is more costeffective and less disruptive than forced adaptation in response to the impacts of extreme events For example, the estimated cost of strengthening the levees protecting New Orleans, while large, was substantially less than the cost of the damage caused by Hurricane Katrina Science has an important role to play in assisting societies to respond to sea-level rise Improved understanding and narrowing of the uncertainties of projected rise at both the global and regional/local level and its impacts are critical elements in assisting society The broad range of current projections of global averaged sealevel rise for the 21st century is primarily the result of model uncertainty, and there is currently inadequate understanding of the factors controlling the globalaveraged sea-level rise and its regional distribution Improving monitoring, understanding, and modeling of the global oceans, of glaciers and ice caps, and of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets, and detecting early signs of any growing ice-sheet contributions, are critical to informing decisions about the required level of greenhouse gas mitigation and for adaptation planning Quantifying how the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets will contribute to sea-level rise during the 21st century and beyond is currently the largest single uncertainty Today, planning for and early warning of extreme events, through improved storm-surge modeling and its operational application, are important aspects of coastal zone management in some regions This approach goes hand-in-hand with the building and operation of storm surge barriers and cyclone centers (Figure 13.7b) Coastal planning as well as warning systems need to be improved and applied in regions where they not currently exist and where substantial Synthesis and Outlook for the Future Figure 13.7 Examples of adaptation to sea-level variability and rise (a) Retreat Managed realignment at Wallasea, Essex, UK, on the estuary of the River Crouch where a defense line was deliberately breached in 2006 – a planned retreat of the shoreline often reduces protection costs and also allows the development of intertidal habitat as intended here (www.abpmer net/wallasea/) This is likely to become a widespread response to sea-level rise across Europe (b) Accommodate Khajura Cyclone Center, Kalapara, Patuakhali, Bangladesh, on June 3, 2007 The Cyclone Center is also used as a school building (c) Protect The Thames Barrage protecting the City of London from storm surges (d) Protect The Maeslantkering storm-surge barrier for protecting the City of Rotterdam from storm surges (a, © Department of Environment Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), London; b, © Shehab Uddin/Drik/Red Cross; c, © UK Environment Agency; d, photo credit: Rijkswaterstaat, Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management.) 415 416 John A Church et al loss of life and damage to infrastructure and the environment has occurred or is likely to occur in the future As a minimum, the coastal planning effort and the warning systems will require significant improvements in bathymetric, near-shore topographic and forecast meteorological information (including surface waves) for storm-surge modeling and detailed inundation mapping The understanding of sea-level rise and variability has progressed considerably over the last decade, largely as a result of dramatically improved in situ and satellite observational systems and improved models of the climate system These observing systems need to be completed, improved and sustained, as described in the plans of the Global Climate Observing System, if we are to continue to reduce uncertainties Another critical component is the development and maintenance of an accurate International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) based on an ongoing Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS; Chapter 9) The 2006 Paris WCRP sea-level workshop which led to this book identified the research and observational needs and they were documented in the summary statement from the workshop (see http://wcrp.wmo.int/AP_SeaLevel.html) These needs are documented in each of the chapters of this book with the observational priorities brought together in Chapter 12 Ensuring that nations have access to the necessary information for adaptation planning is dependent on continued progress in the implementation of these observing systems and improvement of models of the climate system This requires implementation of needed local observing systems by individual nations, international cooperation, and exchange of data, including an open-data policy with timely and unrestricted access for all Finally, the scientific information must be translated into practical adaptation plans and this requires the development and strengthening of partnerships between science, different levels of governments, business, and the public References Alley R.B., Clark P.U., Huybrechts P and Joughin I (2005) Ice-sheets and sealevel changes Science 310, 456–60 Bamber J.L., Riva R.E.M., Vermeersen B.L.A and LeBrocq A.M (2009) Reassessment of the potential sea-level rise from a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Science 334, 901–3 Bird, E.C.F (1993) Submerging Coasts: the Effects of a Rising Sea Level on Coastal Environments John Wiley and Sons, Chichester Bromirski P.D., Flick R.E and Cayan D.R (2003) Storminess variability along the California coast: 1858–2000 Journal of Climate 16, 982–93 Cazenave A., Dominh K., Guinehut S., Berthier E., Llovel W., Ramillien G., Ablain M and Larnicol G (2009) Sea level budget over 2003–2008: a reevaluation from GRACE space gravimetry, satellite altimetry and Argo Global Planetary Change 65, 83–8 Synthesis and Outlook for the Future 417 Church J.A and White N.J (2006) A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise Geophysical Research Letters 33, L01602 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Increasing rates of ice mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets revealed by GRACE Geophysical Research Letters 36, L19503 von Storch H., Zorita E and Gonzáles-Rouco J.F (2008) Relationship between global mean sea-level and global mean temperature and heat-flux in a climate simulation of the past millennium Ocean Dynamics 58, 227–36 Willis J.K., Chambers D.T and Nerem R.S (2008) Assessing the globally averaged sea level budget on seasonal to interannual time scales Journal of Geophysical Research 113, C06015 Index Note: page numbers in italics refer to figures; those in bold refer to tables; n indicates information in a note Aceh-Andaman earthquake, Sumatra 310, 310 associated co-seismic sea-level change 308–9, 309 adaptation and sea-level rise 21–2, 26–7, 35, 36, 40, 41 adaptation, can reduce impacts 31 appropriate timing for an adaptation response 27, 39 planned adaptation options 23, 38–9, 38, 414, 415 airborne laser altimetry 182, 393, 394, 394 airborne surveys, Greenland 182 Alaska 212 calving glaciers 197 Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) 31 altimetry 398 additional uncertainties in mass-balance estimates 183–4 see also airborne laser altimetry; satellite altimetry analysis tools, for terrestrial water-storage contributions 229–36 models of water storage 234–6 satellite observations 230–4 in situ gauging networks 229–30 Antarctic Circumpolar Current 163 Antarctic Ice Sheet 102, 178, 184, 205, 404, 407, 410 Amundsen Sea, thinning of small ice shelves 190, 212 definition of 198 evolution reconstruction following the LGM 296 fingerprint of recent melting 307–8, 307 ice-sheet mass balance 187–9, 187 mass-balance uncertainty 180 melting, sensitive to choice of GIA model 306 signs of a dynamic response 411 thinning 211 Antarctic Peninsula ice-shelf breakup along 212 Larsen B ice-shelf fragmentation 190, 191 southward-progressing loss of ice shelves 190–1 Antarctica 91, 392, 393 evidence against excessive post-LGM melt 296 mass balance of peripheral glaciers 196 anthropogenic changes in terrestrial water storage 241–6 AOGCMs 145, 201 coupled AOGCMs 156, 162–3 progress in development of 166 archaeological sea-level indicators 63, 65, 81–4 coastal settlements and ports constructed in antiquity 81 see also Mediterranean Sea Arctic 392 Argo profiling float system 8, 8, 380–1, 382, 407 Argo Project 144, 145, 152, 166–7 ocean thermal expansion since 2003 228 salinity measurements 167 free and open data access fundamental 380 ice-covered regions, obtaining profiles in 390–2 provision of complementary data for 318 sampling to determine long-term variability and trends 392 sub-Argo-depth ocean 392–3 atmospheric storms and their drivers, observed changes 338–41 analysis of hurricane variability and trends (1983–2005) 340 increasing numbers of category and storms 340 natural variability of Northern Hemisphere storm tracks 338–9 power dissipation index 339–41 increases in SSTs in tropical storm regions 339 atmospheric water mass 246 Australia, use of collected wave data 334 Australian region, case study 353–4 Bass Strait, change in extreme water levels 353 Cairns region, surge events driven by tropical cyclones 353 Corner Inlet, inundation levels under a 2070 worst-case scenario 354, 354 Baltic Sea sea-level oscillations, past 7000 years, records of 101 Baltic Sea, ice margin sites, case study 94–5 Blekinge 95, 95 crustal rebound and falling sea levels 94 isolation basin studies 94 Jæren, SW Norway 94, 101–2 Littorina data, Baltic basin 94–5, 95 rising sea levels beyond the ice margin 94 Bay of Bengal, case study 350–3 increase in frequency of intense cyclones 353 northern part contains megadelta undergoing rapid changes 350, 352 storm surges, effects of 350, 351 use of barotropic surge models 352–3 celestial reference frame (CRF) 259 CLASIC project 352–3, 353 climate change 190 flooding in the Maldives 337 and global/relative sea-level rise 18–22, 18 and increased melting in Greenland and Antarctic coastal regions 184 limited experience of adaptation 40 resulting in environmental refugees 35, 36 see also global warming climate risk, and climate change scenarios 18–19 climate and socioeconomic impacts 30–1 climate system, sensitivity to increased greenhouse gas concentrations 152 climate variability, experience of adapting to 40 co-seismic uplift 63, 65 coastal areas abandonment, triggered by disasters (adaptation failure) 42 developments in, acceleration over past 50 years 1, Understanding Sea-Level Rise and Variability, 1st edition Edited by John A Church, Philip L Woodworth, Thorkild Aarup & W Stanley Wilson © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd 422 Index coastal areas (cont.): ensuring protection of life and property 53 erosion extreme sea level in 333 impacts of sea-level change 1–2, 25, 25–6, 326 management response to sea-level rise 39–40 most densely populated and economically active 18 responses to rising sea levels 17 subsidence and RSLR 20, 21, 28–9, 61 twentieth-century change 3, 401 wetlands 36–7 coastal flooding 34–6, 53, 412 numbers flooded will change (SRES scenarios) 35, 35 numbers of people living on floodplains (1990) 34 people and infrastructure threatened by 414 regions vulnerable to 30, 30 risk increased on English side of the Channel 329 coral islands 337 Maldives, 1987 flooding 337 corals 76–8 banding within 78 fossil corals can be indicative of sea-level position 76, 77 microatolls 75, 76–7, 77, 91, 100 banding 78 caution needed in reconstructing sea level from 78 E Australia 89–90, 89 fixed biological sea-level indicators 77 not related to mean sea level 78 raised coral reefs 63, 65, 68 CryoSat-2 393 Cyclone see Hurricane cyclone shelters, Bangladesh 414, 415 dam building 10, 11 data archaeology 166, 358 see also Global Oceanographic Data Archaeology and Rescue Project data sets and modeling 97–104 bridging the geological and instrumental data sets 100 longer tide-gauge records 67, 100 possible use of coral microatolls 100 salt-marsh proxy records 80, 100 high-precision, high-resolution data 99–100 accretionary biological constructions of coralline algae 99–100 isolation basin analyses from slowly uplifting areas 93, 99 improving resolution for past ice volume changes 97 local, regional and global variations 101 evidence for sea-level oscillations, past 7000 years 101 ocean-volume model assumes continuous increase in ocean volume 96, 101 modeling improvements 102–4 Last Interglacial shorelines 63, 64, 102–3 major limitations in present models 104 publicly available sea-level solution code 103 pure ocean-volume sea-level markers 97–8, 98 sea-level data addressing specific questions about past ice sheets 101–2 separating contributions to sea-level change 98–9, 99 summary of recommendations 104–5 deltas human-induced subsidence 21 RSLR more rapid than global-mean trends 19, 20, 21 significant impacts of RSLR 20, 21, 28 developed countries, many threatened by global sea-level rise 37 DORIS 6, 131, 268, 269, 379, 386, 387 drivers of change, increasing mechanistic understanding of 359–60 Earth, angular velocity (rotation) vector 260 Earth, changes measured using satellite altimetry 134, 260–1, 261, 262 earthquakes, subocean 308–10 Aceh-Andaman earthquake, Sumatra 308–9, 309, 310 mean-sea-level signal at PSMSL tide-gauge stations 309 Earth’s geopotential, secular trends in longwavelength coefficients 289 Earth’s gravitational field, high-resolution information from GOCE satellite 11, 12, 383 Earth’s gravity, GRACE measurements of temporal variations in 182–3 East Anglia, UK, optimum response to sealevel rise 33 East Siberian Ice Sheet 296 Eastern Australia, case study 88–91 eastern Connecticut, USA, accretion rate of salt marsh 124, 125 eastern North Pacific, wave height during last 20–30 years 334 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 66, 133, 147, 150, 408 relationships of mean significant wave height to 334 ocean-mass variations associated with 156 Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) project 274 European Shelf Region, case study 349–50 storm surges in surrounding shelf seas 349–50 STOWASUS study 349 extreme events, changes in 412 changes in intensity and frequency 13–14, 412 extreme sea level: changes in atmospheric drivers 337–46 an introduction to storms 337–8 future changes in mid latitude storms 341–2 in tropical storms 343–6 observed changes in atmospheric storms and their drivers 338–41 extreme sea levels 17, 19, 41 devastating impacts 53 influenced by changes in storm characteristics 24 extreme sea levels, past changes in 327–32 Camargue, rise in maximum annual sea levels 329 during the 20th century 14 effects of river flow 332–3 extreme sea levels due to ocean eddy activity 329 long data set, Liverpool, UK 328–9 modeling considerations 331–2 observational considerations 330–1 past changes in wave characteristics 333–7 quasi-global investigation of 327–8, 328 San Francisco, study of nontidal residuals 329 Venice, increased flood risk 329 extreme sea levels and waves, past and future changes 326–61 evidence for changes in the recent past 327–37 future extreme water levels 346–57 future research needs 357–61, 358 mid-latitude and tropical storms, changes in atmospheric drivers 337–46 study of extremes important 326, 327 extreme water levels, future 346–57 case studies 349–57 Australian region 353–4 Bay of Bengal 350–3 European Shelf region 349–50 Index contribution of waves to future coastal extremes 355–7 tools for simulation of 346–9 tsunamis 357 uncertainty in storm-surge projections 355 fingerprint analysis 13 fingerprinting GIA-corrected sea-level trends 286 global sea-level rise 288 fingerprints 131, 302–8, 311 from melting ice sheets 286 and uncertainty in the GIA signal 311 GFDL hurricane model 344–5, 345 GFDL simulations, comparison with historic intensity trends 345–6 geodesy, understanding Earth processes relevant to sea-level variation 257, 259 geodesy and the choice of a Cartesian coordinate system 266 geodetic observations and analysis 259 science and technology 257–9, 258 geodetic networks, current distribution 269, 270 geodetic observations basis for a global reference frame 256 of crustal rebound 102 geodetic observations, recommendations for 279–80 geodetic observations, sea-level measurements and uncertainties 260–3, 261 geodetic techniques 102 for realizing the ITRF 268–71 underpin progress in sea-level change observations 11 geoid accuracy of 383 sea level, sea-surface and 300–2 geological and biological indicators 74–81 cave deposits 75, 76 combination into a single sea-level curve 73 coral microatolls 75, 76–7, 77, 78, 100 dating indicators erosional notches and tidal notches 63, 74 fossil corals indicative of sea-level position 76–7, 77 Galeolaria caespitosa, fixed biological indicator 76 surf benches 74 zonation dependent on tidal and wave characteristics 75 geological factors, local, importance of GEOSS see Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) 65, 155, 285–6, 290–300 associated vertical land movements 12, 13 and GRACE ocean mass trends estimates 156 inversions for mantle viscosity 294–5 modeling of TPW 297–300 recent improvements in sea-level theory 291–3 viscoelastic Love number theory and GIA studies 290–1 glacier, ice-cap and ice-sheet modeling 200–10 glacier and ice-cap modeling, summary of uncertainties 204–5, 205 glaciers 201–5 ice sheets 205–10 modeling contemporary ice-sheet evolution 200–1 glaciers 201–5 acceleration cause by thinning ice shelves 191 flow characteristics and factors governing flow 395 increased basal lubrication 191–2 modeling of glacier ice dynamics 204 fast changes due to changed glacier dynamics 212 modeling of surface mass balance 202–4 observations of small glaciers summarized 194, 195, 212–13 outside Greenland and Antarctica, losing more ice 386 remote sensing of density profiles 394 shrinking 210 SRALT-derived elevation changes 181 uncertainties in observed mass balances 202 uncertainty of ice area and volume 201–2 glaciers and ice caps addition to sea-level equivalent 201 cryospheric contributions to sea-level rise 178, 211, 211 many currently retreating 177n recent accelerated retreat 227 glaciers and ice caps, mass balance of 192–200 geodetic measurement 192 measurements 179, 192–6 potential improvements 199–200 uncertainties 196–200 glaciers, modeling of 201–5 modeling of glacier ice dynamics 204 Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) 14–15, 131, 132, 269, 377 contributing infrastructure levels 387 423 Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) 280, 376 10-year implementation plan Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) 259–60, 387, 416 global mean gravity field, continuing improvement in accuracy 389 global mean sea-level change determination of 262, 262 increasing rates 52 reasons for change 122–3 rise over last 50 years 177 Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) 262 GNSS satellites 268, 271 plans for expansion and deployment 388 global ocean changes in wave height 334–5 Global Oceanographic Data Archaeology and Rescue Project 144 Global Positioning System (GPS) 6, 262–3, 262, 268 linking to tide gauges and tide-gauge benchmarks 274–9 positions in a Cartesian system 266 used to position Earth orbiting satellites in the ITRF 269 global and regional reference systems 263–73 challenges and future requirements 273 errors related to reference systems and their effects 271–3 error in tie of reference frame to Earth’s center of mass 264, 272–3 geodetic techniques for realizing the ITRF 268–71 terminology defining a reference system and frames 265–8, 258 uncertainty in the TRF 263–4, 264 global and regional sea-level change 143–68 recommendations 167–8 global sea level, uncertainties over past and future changes 13–14 global sea-level change, estimates from satellite altimetry 133–8 10-day estimates of global mean sea level 133, 134 dedicated in situ calibration sites 134–5, 135 IPCC consensus report 135–6 Jason-1 and Jason-2 satellites 133, 136 plans for Jason-3 mission 136 polar regions, fingerprints from melting ice sheets 136 preliminary discussion on subsequent missions 136–7 secular trend, accounting for GIA 133–4 424 Index global sea-level change, estimates from tide gauges 126–33 importance of precise vertical landmovement information 131–3, 132 spatial variability in trends 129–31 tide-gauge data and main findings 126–9, 127 Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) 276, 359, 378–9, 379 global sea-level rise “commitment to sea-level rise” in 21st century and beyond 21–2 “enigma” of interpretation of 289, 298–9, 299 progress in resolution 405–6 exacerbates existing coastal pressures and problems 39–40 individual meltwater contributions 288 likely to accelerate through 21st century 18 need for long-term forecasts resultant impact on the coastal zone Global Soil Wetness Project 236 Global Temperature-Salinity Profile Program 153 Global Terrestrial Network for Glaciers (GTN-G) 386 global warming 341–2 possible future changes in storminess 341–3 progressive rise in mean sea-level projected 52 GLOSS see Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) GOCE satellite 11, 12, 300, 383, 386, 398 GPS see Global Positioning System (GPS) GRACE 183, 227, 236, 261, 289, 308 continuation and improvement of gravity measurements 389 improvement in mean Earth’s gravity field 389 measurements/estimates, temporal variation in Earth’s gravity 182–3 planning for a GRACE-II mission 383–4 space-based gravity data, recent analysis 411 use of GRACE space gravimetry 238 GRACE, ocean-mass estimates 154–6, 155 GRACE space gravity data, allows inference of mass changes 230–3 estimate of accuracy of GRACE water-mass determinations 231 ocean mass estimates need correcting for GIA effects 233 other studies focused on sea-level change 231–2, 232 time-variable gravity 231 used to measure mass balance of ice sheets 233 year-to-year fluctuations of total landwater storage 232, 232 gravity field variability and long-term polar motion 288–90 greenhouse gas concentrations, inadequate understanding of sea-level response to greenhouse gas emissions, mitigation of 1, 411 Greenland ice sheet 9, 10, 40, 181, 184–7, 205, 209, 385, 393, 407, 410, 413 breakup of Jakobshavn ice tongue 190 estimates of mass loss for 398, 399 ice loss doubled in last decade 177–8 increased basal lubrication 191–2 isolation basin analyses 102 mass balance 184–7 estimates affected by interannual variability 189–90 independent studies show accelerating losses 185 pattern of thickening/thinning 185, 186, 187 peripheral glaciers 196 runoff an important component of 206 shift to slow increase in surface mass balance 184 thickening at high elevations 185 uncertainty 180 more amenable to analyses of sea-level data 102 results of airborne laser surveys 182 sea-level fingerprint of present-day melting 304, 304 signs of a dynamic response 411 Southern, ice dome may reach a tipping point 212 surface mass balance reconstructed for 1958–2007 206–7 susceptible to continued warming 189 thinning 178, 211 update of estimated runoff and surface mass balance 189 groundwater dam-affected 242–3 deep and terrestrial water storage 238–9 lake-affected 240–1 groundwater mining 10, 243–4, 247–8 Hurricane Ike 14 Hurricane Katrina 4, 42, 53, 55, 56, 332, 357 damage of combined impacts 326 flooding in New Orleans exacerbated 28 impact on New Orleans 17, 538 Hurricane (Cyclone) Nargis 4, 24, 350 Hurricane Rita 53, 53, 54, 55, 56 Hurricane (Cyclone) Sidr 4, 350 Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) 181 ice sheets 179, 205–10, 408, 408 accelerating flow from outlet glaciers 211 biggest long-term concern for sea-level rise 411 changes in mass, influence of 408–9 flow rate of outlet glaciers and ice streams 395 Greenland and Antarctica 177n, 205–8 growth, decay and relative sea-level change 65 increasing contributions to sea-level rise 407 InSAR, study of data 395 modeling of ice dynamics 208–10, 209 modeling of surface mass balance 205–8, 207 need for in situ verification of remote observations 386 slow thickening at height 211 thinning near coasts 211 ice shelves 190–1 ice velocity 395–6 ice-sheet and glacier volume 384–6, 393–4 ice-sheet mass balance 180–92 causes of changes 189–92 Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets 8–9, 184–9 mass balance 180–4 new estimates based on InSAR and GRACE 228 summary 183–4 ice-sheet reconstructions, first-order uncertainties remaining unsolved 296–7 ice-shelf break-up, dynamic response 190–1 Iceland, salt-marsh proxy records 124–6, 125 ICESat 182, 393–4 interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) 180, 227, 268, 398 ice-sheet mapping 396 maturity of technique 395 provides 2-D mapping views of Earth surface changes 263 International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) 268, 269 determining the ITRF 387 implementation of ITRF based on multitechnique combination 269–70 Index International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) 259, 268, 386, 386–7, 398, 416 aim to improve accuracy of 388 coordinated through GGOS 11 geocenter drift, effects of 389 geocenter stability 270 geodetic techniques contributing to realization of 269 gravity-field measurements 388 incorporating individual TRF solutions 269–70 ITRF2005 271 likely accuracy 387 origin, the geocenter 388 satellite contributions to a better definition of 387 stability of the ITRF2000 geocentric origin estimated over a decade 270 network degradation over time 270, 271 uncertainties in determination of the geocenter 388 updating of 268 IPCC AR4 406, 409 conclusions concerning future climate models 343 model projections 409, 410 sea-level budget as summarized in 227–8, 227 assessments comparison of TAR and AR4 projections 410 Third Assessment Report impact of global warming 341–2 projected sea-level rise for 21st century 52, 409, 409 irrigation 244–5 isostatic response 103 isostatic uplift, recognition of 64 see also glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) Kara Sea Ice Sheet 296 lakes, and terrestrial water storage 239–40 Late Pleistocene ice histories, reconstructions of 295–7 Lidar Surface Topography (LIST) mission 394 Love numbers 290 low-earth-orbiting (LEO) satellite missions 387 lunar laser ranging (LLR) 387 mantle flow, consequence of 310 mass-balance measurements, database limitations 198 measurement errors 197–8 calving of icebergs, source of uncertainty 197, 213 global mass-balance estimates, uncertainty in total area 198 neglect of internal accumulation 197 uncertainties in geodetic measurements of mass balance 197–8 Mediterranean Sea 81–4 flooded paintings of Cosquer cave (S France) 81 reconstructions of historical sea-level change 81 Roman fish tanks 81, 82 data from stable areas, accurate estimates of paleo-sea levels 93 elements bearing on sea level at time of construction 82, 83–4 slipways found at various locations 83 Mediterranean Sea, case study 91–4 megacities 1, 402 coastal, subsiding 21, 21, 22 mid-latitude storms, future changes 341–3 Milankovitch and astronomical theory of ice ages 64 Mississippi delta, large rates of subsidence, impact from RSLR 28 modern sea-level-change estimates 122–38 climate model simulations, placing constraints on 122 enhanced flood risks, major implications 122 estimates from proxy sea-level records 123–6 estimates of global sea-level change from satellite altimetry 133–8 from tide gauges 126–33 Northern Hemisphere storm tracks, natural variability of 338–9 New Zealand, evidence for 20th century acceleration in sea-level rise 126 North Atlantic 344 increase in wave height 333 relationship between wave heights and storm tracks 334 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) 147, 331 and current climate models 346–7 North Atlantic sub-tropical gyre, apparent warming 130 North Pacific 335 North Sea area, simulations of almost 50 years of water levels 331 northeast Atlantic climate, WASA group study 333 northern Spain, proxy information from salt marshes 126 425 northwest Atlantic, 40 years of tides and surges modeled 331–2 use of Digital Elevation Models 332 Nova Scotia, salt-marsh proxy records 124–6 observing systems 416 adherence to GCOS observing principles 14–15 concern for continuity of space-based and in situ systems 14 improved, development of 390–7 new and improved systems need developing 398–9 observing systems, sustained and systematic 377–89 ice sheet and glacier volume 384–6 ocean, terrestrial water and ice mass 381–4 ocean volume 380–1 reference frame 386–9 sea level 377–80 ocean mass changes 156 inferred changes from changes in ocean salinity 149 Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM) 378 ocean, terrestrial water and ice mass 381–4 ocean thermal expansion 9, 143, 144, 177, 411 global averaged 158–9, 158 revised estimates 405–6 ocean volume 380–1, 390–3 changes driven by global factors 62 extending Argo-type capability 390 oceans and the climate system 143–5 offshore structures and coastal refineries 52–9, 58 orbital theory 64 OSTM/Jason-2, extending the Jason series 378 Pacific Decadal Oscillation 147 paleo-sea-level data/indicators 73, 93, 105, 404 past sea-level changes 62–73 permafrost 241 Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) 123, 275, 379 Phased Array L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) 396 polar wander, true see true polar wander (TPW) power dissipation index (PDI) 339–41 Pozzuoli 62, 63 marine borings in Roman columns 63, 92 radiocarbon dating of in situ Lithophaga, results 92–3 426 Index prediction, improvement of 360–1 protection, benefit-cost approach to 42 proxy sea-level records, estimates from 80, 100, 123–6, 125 PRUDENCE project 350 Quaternary sea-level fluctuations 68–9 reference frame 386–9 maintenance and improvement 386 terrestrial (TRF) and celestial (CRF) 259 and tide gauges 274–5 see also International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) regional atmospheric models 206 Regional Storm, Wave and Surge Scenarios for the 21st century (STOWASUS) 349, 356 relative sea level and causes of sea-level change 65–7 relative sea-level change, today and future 61 relative sea-level history, geophysical modeling of variability in 84–8 relative sea-level rise (RSLR) ability to protect against 29 falling due to GIA (high latitudes) 19 more rapid than global-mean trends on subsiding coasts 19, 20 produced by withdrawal of groundwater in susceptible city areas 21, 21, 22 response to climate change and other factors 19, 19 reservoirs, artificial 241–2 river flow, effects of 332–3 RSLR see relative sea-level rise (RSLR) sampling errors, temporal and spatial, glaciers 198–9 satellite altimetry 6, 149–50, 151, 233–4, 396–7 accurate measurements of changes in sealevel, ice elevations and lake/river levels 260–1, 261 accurate sea-level measurement 226 for changes in ocean and ice-sheet volume 11 conventional altimetry, limitation over land 233 data shows significant regional variations in sea-level rise 408, 408 estimates of global sea-level change 133–8 GIA corrections to significant 287–8 GPS used to position altimeters in space relative to GPS land stations 262–3 and improved understanding of sea-level budget since 2003 407 need to connect observations in a common, precise reference frame 261 space-based measurement of surface-water elevation 233–4 water-level times series available 233 satellite laser ranging (SLR) 268–70, 386, 387, 388 satellite observations GRACE space gravity data 230–3 satellite altimetry 233–4 satellite radar altimetry (SRALT) 181–2, 185, 188, 233–4, 384–5 sea level 377–80 globally averaged 122, 123 ice-sheet and glacier contributions to 398 regional, influence of great earthquakes 308–9 why is sea level rising? 405–8 sea level, eustatic, changes over last 6000– 7000 years 96–7, 96 sea level, sea-surface and the geoid 300–2 sea level and society 412–16 sea levels extreme 333 rising and coastal development 402 impacts of 13–14, 14 sea surface temperatures (SSTs) 339 sensitivity of storm intensity to 345 sea and terrestrial water levels, ice-sheet and glacier topography 396–7 sea-level change additional contributions, water storage on land 407 collection of direct observations of 377 historical 403–5 main processes responsible for see steric sea-level changes present-day climatic conditions during Last Interglacial 404 need to identify and quantify causes result of changes in relative sea level slow rise up to 18th century 404 understanding of 386–7 sea-level changes continuation of 62 regional, mantle flow and evolution of plate boundaries 310 see also past sea-level changes sea-level fingerprints and rapid melting 302–8, 303, 304, 305 sea-level indicators 73–84 sea-level reconstructions, updated 405, 410 sea-level rise 4, 15, 404–5 20th-century contributions to 8–9, approximate closure of sea-level budget 406, 406, 407 attempts to develop parameterizations of 410–11 in coastal zones may be accentuated relative to open ocean 288 consider full ocean depth when estimating 152 disinvestment from coastal areas could be triggered 42 distribution of 408–9 satellite altimeter data 408, 408 faster in 20th century 125, 134, 404 future disproportionate impact of ice-sheet contribution 408–9 in response to global warming 61–2 impacts of, and responses to 17–43 human responses difficult to document 28 next steps 40–1 improved understanding of contributions to 407–8 of regional distribution 41 non-climate components 41 observations of relative to IPCC projections 410 optimistic and pessimistic views of importance 41–2 over two time spans (1961–2003 and 1993–2003) land-ice contributions 227 sea-level budget for 227–8, 227 thermal expansion 227 projections for 21st century and beyond 409–12, 160, 164 recent impacts 27–9, 23 regional distribution 408–9 seen as major threat to low-lying coastal areas 17 sensitivity to greenhouse-gas emissions 413 significant acceleration of 52 two main causes 227 why is sea level rising? 405–8 will continue long after 2100 411 sea-level rise, future impacts 30–7 minimizing future coastal impacts 1–2 national-scale assessments 23, 31–3, 32 will depend on a range of factors 30 see also past sea-level changes sea-level rise, responding to 37–40 adaptation involves responding to mean and extreme RSLR 38 adaptation RSLR 39 appropriate timing for an adaptation response 27, 39 Index mitigation can reduce commitment to sea-level rise 42 planned adaptation options 23, 38–9, 38, 414, 415 potential responses, mitigation and adaptation 37 sea-level rise and resulting impacts 22–5, 23, 24 sea-level rise and variability 256–81 geodesy: science and technology 257–8 geodetic observations as a foundation 260–3 GEOSS activities 376 GGOS 259–60 global and regional reference systems 263–73 linking GPS to tide gauges and tide-gauge benchmarks 274–9 need for an open data policy 376–7 observing systems needed 376–99 purpose and scope 256–7 recommendations for geodetic observations 279–80 sustained, systematic observing systems (existing capabilities) 377–89 synthesis and outlook for the future 402–16 sea-level rise and variability, cryospheric contributions to 177–214 glacier, ice-cap and ice-sheet modeling 200–10 Greenland and Antarctica, summary of recent mass balance 177, 178 ice-sheet mass balance 180–92 mass balance of glaciers and ice caps 192–200 mass-balance techniques 178–80 measurements of the cryosphere not straightforward recommendations 213–14 summary 210–13 sea-level rise and variability, terrestrial water-storage contributions 226–49 analysis tools 229–36 climate-driven changes of terrestrial water storage 236–41 external constraints on contribution to present-day sea-level change 226–8 major domains of terrestrial water storage 228–9 major drivers of variations in terrestrial water storage 229 purpose and scope 226 recommendations 247–9 sea-level theory, recent improvements in 291–3, 292 sea-level trends and variability, regional case studies 88–95 Eastern Australia (far-field) 88–91 ice margin sites, the Baltic Sea 94–5 the Mediterranean Sea 91–4 sea-level variability, modern analyses of 286 sea-level variation, constraints on 285 sea-level variations since the LGM 69–73, 69 sea-level-rise impacts, framework and methods for analysis 25–7, 25 sea-level-rise impacts and responses 40–1 sedimentary indicators of sea level 78–81, 80 salt-marsh analyses, important and recent source of information 100 seismic deformation 286 Shuttle Radar Topography Mission 397 Simple Ocean Data Model (SODA) 152–3 small island regions low oceanic islands 1, 2, 414 some populations face forced abandonment 31 very vulnerable to flooding 31, 337 see also coral islands snow pack, soil water and shallow groundwater 9–10, 237–8 snowfall and surface melting, changes in 189–90 solid Earth deformation field 286 space geodesy, can resolve Earth’s gravity sufficiently 389 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) 30–1, 34–6, 35, 42, 350 steric sea-level changes 6–8 steric sea-level changes, estimating using ocean syntheses 152–3, 154 steric sea-level, inferred from time-variable grav ty and sea level 154–6, 155 steric sea-level rise, direct estimates of 145–52 “era of satellite altimetry” 149–50, 151 progress and gaps in the ocean-observing system 151–2 second half of the 20th century 145–9, 146 sparse sampling, questions about accuracy 147 steric sea-level rise, modeling of 156–66 comparison of observed and modeled global averaged rise 158–9, 147, 158 coupled AOGCMs, simulation of 20th century and projected 21st-century climates 156 higher-resolution model estimates 160–2, 160, 162 ocean processes of sea-level change 162–6, 164, 165 427 projections of steric sea-level changes 159–60 recent AOGCM simulations 157 storm surges 4, 337, 412 and wave heights, uncertainty, and future changes in extremes 52 storm-surge barriers 414, 415 storm-surge projections, uncertainty 355 storms, an introduction 337–8 subocean earthquakes, capable of triggering tsunamis 308 surface mass loading on a dynamic earth 285–313 constraints 288–90 emphasis on data collection and analysis 312–13 essential conclusions 311 forefront questions for research 312 GIA 290–300 great earthquakes 308–10 rapid melting and sea-level fingerprints 302–8 tide-gauge record 286–8 Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission 397 sustained, systematic observing systems 377–89 ice sheet and glacier volume 384–6 ocean, terrestrial water and ice mass 381–4 ocean volume 380–1 reference frame 386–9 sea level 377–80 Terrestrial Reference System (TRS) 258, 265 conventions of the reference system 267 datum 266–7 reference frame 267–8 terrestrial water, external constraints on contribution to present day sea-level change 226–8 terrestrial water storage 398 climate-driven changes of 236–41 atmospheric water mass 246 direct anthropogenic changes 241–6 fluctuations and uncertainties in 10 major domains of 228 major drivers of variations in 229 see also water-storage models tide gauges 266 estimates summarized 405 with GPS or DORIS stations nearby 379 improvements in observation of sea level 6, measurements, immune to reference frame problems 273 and the reference frame 274–5 Free ebooks ==> www.Ebook777.com 428 Index tide gauges and tide-gauge benchmarks, linking GPS to 274–9 tide-gauge analyses 287 tide-gauge benchmarks 275 tide-gauge estimates, summarized 405 tide-gauge measurements historical perspective 275–6 ground truth for altimetry 276 tide-gauge record 286–8, 311 San Francisco Bay 14 TOPEX/Poseidon radar altimeter satellite 133, 144, 368 TPW see true polar wander (TPW) tropical cyclones, Atlantic 339–41 tropical storms, future change in 343–6 TRS see Terrestrial Reference System (TRS) true polar wander (TPW) 288–90, 311 modeling of 297–300, 311 tsunamis 357 triggered by subocean earthquakes 308 UK, future probability of combined surge and river flooding 350 uniformitarianism principle, and Pozzuoli 62, 63 urbanization and deforestation 246 effects of removal of forest 246 urbanization, strong impact on water balance 246 USA East Coast 28 potential cost of sea-level rise 33, 33 vertical crustal motion determination 274–5 very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) 267, 268, 269, 270, 386, 388 water, redistribution of 286 water-storage models 234–6 water surface heights, high-resolution spatial mapping needed 397 wave characteristics, past changes in 333–7 waves, changes on a global basis, suitable database 335, 337 waves, contribution to future coastal extremes 355–7 www.Ebook777.com Waves and Storms in the North Atlantic (WASA) group 332, 333, 356 West Antarctic ice sheet 40, 209 adjusting to Holocene temperature and sea level 96 west North Pacific, increase in summertime extreme wave heights 334 wetland drainage 245–6 wide-swath altimeter, development needed 399 WOCE see World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) 402 WCRP workshop (2006), aims of workshop and new research programs 402–3 World Glacier Monitoring Service, survey of available material 192–3, 194, 195 World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) 144, 151, 378 World Ocean Database (WOD) 147, 153 ... Change and Global/Relative Sea- Level Rise 2.3 Sea- Level Rise and Resulting Impacts 2.4 Framework and Methods for the Analysis of Sea- Level- Rise Impacts 2.5 Recent Impacts of Sea- Level Rise 2.6... 13 Sea Level, Sea Surface, and the Geoid Rapid Melting and Sea- Level Fingerprints Great Earthquakes Final Remarks Acknowledgments References Past and Future Changes in Extreme Sea Levels and. .. ==> www.Ebook777.com UNDERSTANDING SEA- LEVEL RISE AND VARIABILITY EDITED BY JOHN A CHURCH CENTRE FOR AUSTRALIAN WEATHER AND CLIMATE RESEARCH, A PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN CSIRO AND THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY,