Table of Contents PENGUIN BOOKS Title Page Copyright Page Dedication Epigraph PART ONE - MODERN MONTANA CHAPTER - Under Montana’s Big Sky PART TWO - PAST SOCIETIES CHAPTER - Twilight at Easter CHAPTER - The Last People Alive: Pitcairn and Henderson Islands CHAPTER - The Ancient Ones: The Anasazi and Their Neighbors CHAPTER - The Maya Collapses CHAPTER - The Viking Prelude and Fugues CHAPTER - Norse Greenland’s Flowering CHAPTER - Norse Greenland’s End CHAPTER - Opposite Paths to Success PART THREE - MODERN SOCIETIES CHAPTER 10 - Malthus in Africa: Rwanda’s Genocide CHAPTER 11 - One Island, Two Peoples, Two Histories: The Dominican Republic CHAPTER 12 - China, Lurching Giant CHAPTER 13 - “Mining” Australia PART FOUR - PRACTICAL LESSONS CHAPTER 14 - Why Do Some Societies Make Disastrous Decisions? CHAPTER 15 - Big Businesses and the Environment: Different Conditions, CHAPTER 16 - The World as a Polder: What Does It All Mean to Us Today? AFTERWORD Acknowledgements FURTHER READINGS INDEX ILLUSTRATION CREDITS PENGUIN BOOKS COLLAPSE Jared Diamond is a professor of geography at the University of California, Los Angeles He began his scientific career in physiology and expanded into evolutionary biology and biogeography He has been elected to the National Academy of Arts and Sciences and the American Philosophical Society Among Dr Diamond’s many awards are the National Medal of Science, the Tyler Prize for Environmental Achievement, Japan’s Cosmos Prize, a MacArthur Foundation Fellowship, and the Lewis Thomas Prize honoring the Scientist as Poet, presented by the Rockefeller University He has published more than two hundred articles in Discover, Natural History, Nature, and Geo magazines His previous books include The Third Sex and The Third Chimpanzee His most recent book, Guns, Germs, and Steel, was awarded the Pulitzer Prize Chosen as Best Book of the Year by The Washington Post, The Boston Globe, the Los Angeles Times, the San Francisco Chronicle, The Economiser, and Discover Praise for Collapse “Extraordinary in erudition and originality, compelling in [its] ability to relate the digitized pandemonium of the present to the hushed agrarian sunrises of the far past.” —The New York Times Book Review “Readers learn on page that they are in for quite a ride No reader may carp that Diamond has provided a set of examples that is too limited chronologically or geographically Diamond has been to most of the lands cited, often staying for months or even years, and what he writes about them and their populations is informed and engagingly colored by personal observation The Icelanders learned to face up to reality and adapt to living within the limits of their environments Jared Diamond has written a book to help us the same.” —Los Angeles Times “With Collapse, Jared Diamond has written a fascinating account of the collapse of civilizations around the world A reader cannot help but leave the book wondering whether we are following the track of these other civilizations that failed Any reader of Collapse will leave the book convinced that we must take steps now to save our planet.” —The Boston Globe “In a world that celebrates live journalism, we are increasingly in need of big-picture authors like Jared Diamond, who think historically and spacially—across an array of disciplines—to make sense of events that journalists may seem to be covering in depth, but in fact aren’t Thank heavens there is someone of the stature of Diamond willing to say so.” —Robert D Kaplan, The Washington Post “Diamond looks to the past and present to sound a warning for the future.” —Newsweek “Rendering complex history and science into entertaining prose, Diamond reminds us that those who ignore history are bound to repeat it.” —People (four stars) “Taken together Guns, Germs, and Steel and Collapse represent one of the most significant projects embarked upon by any intellectual of our generation They are magnificent books: extraordinary in erudition and originality, compelling in their ability to relate the digitized pandemonium of the present to the hushed agrarian sunrises of the far past I read both thinking what literature might be like if every author knew so much, wrote so clearly and formed arguments with such care.” —The New York Times “Essential reading for anyone who is unafraid to be disillusioned if it means they can walk into the future with their eyes open.” —Nature “On any short list of brilliant minds in the world today, Diamond makes the cut.” —San Jose Mercury News “Read this book It will challenge you and make you think.” —Scientific American PENGUIN BOOKS Published by the Penguin Group Penguin Group (USA) Inc., 375 Hudson Street, New York, New York 10014, U.S.A Penguin Group (Canada), 90 Eglinton Avenue East, Suite 700, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M 4P 2Y3 (a division of Pearson Penguin Canada Inc.) Penguin Books Ltd, 80 Strand, London WC2R 0RL, England Penguin Ireland, 25 St Stephen’s Green, Dublin 2, Ireland (a division of Penguin Books Ltd) Penguin Group (Australia), 250 Camberwell Road, Camberwell, Victoria 3124, Australia (a division of Pearson Australia Group Pty Ltd) Penguin Books India Pvt Ltd, 11 Community Centre, Panchsheel Park, New Delhi - 110 017, India Penguin Group (NZ), 67 Apollo Drive, Rosedale, North Shore 0632, New Zealand (a division of Pearson New Zealand Ltd) Penguin Books (South Africa) (Pty) Ltd, 24 Sturdee Avenue, Rosebank, Johannesburg 2196, South Africa Penguin Books Ltd, Registered Offices: 80 Strand, London WC2R 0RL, England First published in the United States of America by Viking Penguin, a member of Penguin Group (USA) Inc 2005 Published in Penguin Books 2006 This edition with a new afterword published 2011 Copyright © Jared Diamond, 2005, 2011 All rights reserved M aps by Jeffrey L Ward Collapse : how societies choose to fail or succeed / Jared Diamond p cm Includes index eISBN : 978-1-101-50200-6 Social history—Case studies Social change—Case studies Environmental policy—Case studies I Title HN13.D5 2005 304.2’8—dc22 2004057152 The scanning, uploading, and distribution of this book via the Internet or via any other means without the permission of the publisher is illegal and punishable by law Please purchase only authorized electronic editions, and not participate in or encourage electronic piracy of copyrighted materials Your support of the author’s rights is appreciated http://us.penguingroup.com To Jack and Ann Hirschy, Jill Hirschy Eliel and John Eliel, Joyce Hirschy McDowell, Dick (1929-2003) and Margy Hirschy, and their fellow Montanans: guardians of Montana’s big sky I met a traveler from an antique land Who said: “Two vast and trunkless legs of stone Stand in the desert Near them, on the sand, Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown, And wrinkled lip and sneer of cold command, Tell that its sculptor well those passions read, Which yet survive, stampt on these lifeless things, The hand that mockt them and the heart that fed: And on the pedestal these words appear: ‘M y name is Ozymandias, king of kings: Look on my works, ye M ighty, and despair!’ Nothing beside remains Round the decay Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare The lone and level sands stretch far away.” “Ozymandias,” by Percy Bysshe Shelley (1817) PROLOGUE A Tale of Two Farms Two farms ■ Collapses, past and present ■ Vanished Edens? ■ A five-point framework ■ Businesses and the environment ■ The comparative method ■ Plan of the book ■ A few summers ago I visited two dairy farms, Huls Farm and Gardar Farm, which despite being located thousands of miles apart were still remarkably similar in their strengths and vulnerabilities Both were by far the largest, most prosperous, most technologically advanced farms in their respective districts In particular, each was centered around a magnificent state-of-the-art barn for sheltering and milking cows Those structures, both neatly divided into opposite-facing rows of cow stalls, dwarfed all other barns in the district Both farms let their cows graze outdoors in lush pastures during the summer, produced their own hay to harvest in the late summer for feeding the cows through the winter, and increased their production of summer fodder and winter hay by irrigating their fields The two farms were similar in area (a few square miles) and in barn size, Huls barn holding somewhat more cows than Gardar barn (200 vs 165 cows, respectively) The owners of both farms were viewed as leaders of their respective societies Both owners were deeply religious Both farms were located in gorgeous natural settings that attract tourists from afar, with backdrops of high snowcapped mountains drained by streams teeming with fish, and sloping down to a famous river (below Huls Farm) or fjord (below Gardar Farm) Those were the shared strengths of the two farms As for their shared vulnerabilities, both lay in districts economically marginal for dairying, because their high northern latitudes meant a short summer growing season in which to produce pasture grass and hay Because the climate was thus suboptimal even in good years, compared to dairy farms at lower latitudes, both farms were susceptible to being harmed by climate change, with drought or cold being the main concerns in the districts of Huls Farm or Gardar Farm respectively Both districts lay far from population centers to which they could market their products, so that transportation costs and hazards placed them at a competitive disadvantage compared to more centrally located districts The economies of both farms were hostage to forces beyond their owners’ control, such as the changing affluence and tastes of their customers and neighbors On a larger scale, the economies of the countries in which both farms lay rose and fell with the waxing and waning of threats from distant enemy societies The biggest difference between Huls Farm and Gardar Farm is in their current status Huls Farm, a family enterprise owned by five siblings and their spouses in the Bitterroot Valley of the western U.S state of Montana, is currently prospering, while Ravalli County in which Huls Farm lies boasts one of the highest population growth rates of any American county Tim, Trudy, and Dan Huls, who are among Huls Farm’s owners, personally took me on a tour of their high-tech new barn, and patiently explained to me the attractions and vicissitudes of dairy farming in Montana It is inconceivable that the United States in general, and Huls Farm in particular, will collapse in the foreseeable future But Gardar Farm, the former manor farm of the Norse bishop of southwestern Greenland, was abandoned over 500 years ago Greenland Norse society collapsed completely: its thousands of inhabitants starved to death, were killed in civil unrest or in war against an enemy, or emigrated, until nobody remained alive While the strongly built stone walls of Gardar barn and nearby Gardar Cathedral are Marquesan Islands: language of and outlying islands social structure of stone structures of Maya agriculture cenotes (sinkholes) of Chichén Itzá Classic period of and climate collapse of society complex society of Copán deforestation by diet and droughts European conquest of lessons from Long Count calendar of map Mayapán and Mesoamerican culture population of power cycling of Tikal warfare of water management written records of McDonald’s Corporation McGovern, Thomas McIntosh, Bill McVeigh, Timothy Medieval Warm Period Mediterranean fruit fly Mesoamericans Mesopotamia methane Mid-Atlantic Ridge Miller, Chris Milltown Dam, Montana Mimbres society mining: in Australia bankruptcy proceedings in borax cleanup in coal industry in Colorado cyanide heap-leach method economic factors for hardrock insurance bonds in in Japan legacy problems in in Montana in New Guinea overburden component of platinum/palladium public attitudes toward regulation of social license to operate tailings from titanium toxic wastes in waste rock in and water quality Minoan Crete, collapse of MMSD (Mining Minerals and Sustainable Development) project Moche civilization, collapse of Montana agriculture in anti-government attitudes in author’s story bottom-up management in climate of Cook’s story economic history of environmental problems of Falkow’s story fishing in five themes illustrated in forests in Huls Farm hunting in as ideal case study Laible’s story map militias in mining in native and non-native species in Pigman’s story polarization in population in quality of life in schools in soil of taxes in water in Montana Land Reliance motor vehicles Mt Tambora, eruption of Mulloy, William Murray/Darling river system, Australia Mycenean Greece National Forest Service, U.S Native Americans: in Canada decimated by disease disappearing societies of Dorset people exploitation of Inuit, see Inuit Mesoamericans in Montana as slaves in Southwestern U.S.; see also Anasazi Tainos in Vinland natural experiment method natural gas Nature Conservancy, The Navajo people neighbors, hostile Netherlands, polders in Nettles, Bill Nevada, gold mines in Newfoundland New Guinea agriculture of and Australia landmass bottom-up management in deforestation of and El Niño government of indicator species of Kutubu oil field mining in plant domestication in population growth of settlement of silviculture in volcanic ashfall on wood supplies on Nordrseta hunting ground Norfolk Island Norse Greenland abandonment of agriculture in burial customs in climate in communal cooperation in conservative society of decline of deforestation of environment of Erik the Red in Eurocentrism in food in fuel in Gardar Cathedral Gardar Farm hunting in Hvalsey Church integrated economy of Inuit in iron poverty in isolation of native species in population of religion in Sandnes Farm settlement of social stratification in soil quality in starvation in survival of trade with tree shortage in turf cutting in Viking colony in violence in North Atlantic: map sea ice in North Sea, oil/gas in Norway, see Scandinavia nutrients, recycling of Nygaard, Georg Ogowila tephra oil industry disasters in double-hulled tankers in government regulation of Kutubu oil field long-range outlook in natural gas in Point Arguello and public opinion on Salawati Island technology in Oil Search Limited Ok Tedi copper mine Olaf I, king of Norway Olafsson, Thorstein Olav the Quiet, king of Norway Olmecs Ord River Scheme, Australia O’Reilly, David Orkney Islands Orliac, Catherine overgrazing ozone layer, destruction of “Ozymandias” (Shelley) Pacific islands: deforestation of disappearance of societies in Polynesian expansion in sustainable food production on Pacific Ocean: Andesite Line garbage transport to map Packard Foundation packrat midden analysis palynology (pollen analysis) Panguna Copper Mine Pa Nukumara Papua New Guinea, see New Guinea PCBs Peary, Robert Pegasus Gold Inc Pennsylvania, forests in per-capita environmental impact in Australia in China defined in Dominican Republic in Polynesia in Tikopia Pérez Rancier, Juan Bautista Perry, Matthew Pertamina pesticides Peters, Thomas Phelps-Dodge Corporation photosynthesis Picts Pigman, Chip Piper Alpha oil platform Pitcairn Island collapse of and Easter Island evacuation of H.M.S Bounty survivors on human impact on isolation of maps population of settlement of stone structures on trading partners of Platteau, Jean-Philippe Plum Creek Timber Company Point Arguello oil field polders political trouble spots (map) pollution-intensive industries (PII) Polynesia: ancestors of colonizing expansion of diet of human impact on interisland voyages in Lapita-style pottery of plants of “rocker jaw” of ropes of settlement of social divisions in Southeast, see Southeast Polynesia stone structures of see also specific islands population control population growth autocatalytic and available resources and complexity of society Malthusian problems of poverty Powell, Steve prisoner’s dilemma Procter and Gamble Proposition, California protein sources Prunier, Gérard Pueblo Indians racism Rainforest Action Network rainforests rational behavior Redford, Robert religious values Rennell Island Rio Tinto mines Roggeveen, Jacob Rolett, Barry Roman Empire, fall of Royal Dutch Shell Oil Company ruins, romance of Russia, population in Rwanda agriculture in civil wars in collapse in deforestation and erosion in economic crisis in environmental problems in famines in genocide in Hutu and Tutsi people in independence of inequality in Kanama commune in land disputes in population in Twa people in violence and crime in Salawati Island Salim, Emil saline seep salinization and agriculture and climate change and desalinization dryland and irrigation processes of and water quality San Nicolas Island Santa Barbara Channel, oil spill Scandinavia: agriculture in Black Death (plague) in bog iron in fuel in natural advantages in navigation in population growth in religion in trade with unification of Viking, see Vikings written accounts of Schwab, Charles Scientific Certification Systems Sea Peoples, invasions by selfishness Selling, Olof sheep: and forest fires overgrazing by and wool production Shetland Islands silviculture: in Australia in Japan in New Guinea Simon, Julian SmartWood Smyrill, John Arnason societies: archaeological studies of comparative studies of ice core studies of packrat midden studies of responses of tree ring studies of soil: acidification/alkalinization in Australia composting earthworms in and fisheries and glacier activity in Greenland in Iceland loss of, see erosion in Montana nutrient depletion salinization of, see salinization and turf cutting uplift of crust volcanic ashfall Sokkason, Einar solar energy Solomon Islands: British colonial government of collapse of illegal logging in Somalia, collapse in South Africa Southeast Polynesia collapse in habitability of Henderson human impact on interisland trade Mangareva metaphor of Pitcairn Southern California Southwestern U.S.: agriculture in Anasazi in arroyo cutting in bottom-up management in cannibalism in deforestation in disappearing cultures in dry climate of first humans in housing in prehistory studies of regional integration in water management in Soviet Union, collapse of species, introduced vs native Stamford Bridge, Battle of starvation Steadman, David Stephens, John Stevenson, Chris Stiller, David Stillwater Mining Company Stonehenge sunk-cost effect sunlight: as energy source and greenhouse gases Sustainable Fisheries Fund Tahiti Taino people Tainter, Joseph technology in oil industry pollution-intensive industries side effects of Teller Wildlife Refuge Tembec timber company Teotihuacán terrorism Third World: cleanup costs in collapsing societies in disease in emigration from environmental problems of exploited by First World nations First World goals in and fisheries food distribution to and forests per-capita impact in population growth in Thomas, Jack Ward Three Gorges Dam, China Thucycides Tibito tephra Tiffany & Co Tikopia Island bottom-up management in clans on food production on human impact on environment in isolation of land ownership on Lapita people of population density of population management on rainforest of settlement of sustainable economy of timber industry, see forests Tin Cup Dam, Montana Tiwanaku collapse Tokugawa era, see Japan Tonga top-down environmental management China Dominican Republic Inca Empire Tokugawa-era Japan and tragedy of the commons Totman, Conrad toxic chemicals toxic wastes, in mining industry trade, friendly partners in tragedy of the commons tree ring studies (dendrochronology) trouble spots (map) Trout Unlimited Trujillo, Rafael Tuamotu Archipelago Tuchman, Barbara turf cutting Tutsi people Ulfsson, Gunnbj��rn Unilever Corporation Union Carbide, Bhopal Union Oil, oil spill by United Nations Conference on the Human Environment values: clashes of moral in problem-solving undermining of Van Devender, Tom Van Tilburg, Jo Anne Varangians Vargas, Patricia Venezuela, natural gas from Vikings agriculture of archaeological studies of comparative studies of cultural legacy of deforestation by emergence of expansion waves of iron used by North Atlantic colonies of North Atlantic map as raiders religion of social system of written accounts of Vinland: abandonment of Indian populations of natural resources of Viking colony in warfare cannibalism in false analogy in water: aquifers and dams desalinization of desertification and drought and global warming for irrigation, see irrigation management of osmotic pressure of overallocated plankton in quality of reservoirs river flow stoppages of saline seep of; see also salinization from snowmelt temperatures of uses of in wells wetland destruction water cycle Waterman, Robert Jr water table Webster, David weeds Weisler, Marshall whirling disease William the Conqueror wind generators Wisconsin, hunting industry in Woolsey, Vern world map World Trade Organization (WTO) World War I World War II World Wildlife Fund (WWF) Wyoming, methane extraction in Yahi Indians Yangtze River, China Yellow River, China Yellowstone National Park Yen, Douglas Young, Mike Zapotecs, writing of Zero Population Growth Zortman-Landusky Mine Zuni pueblo ILLUSTRATION CREDITS Plates 1, 2, and 3: © Michael Kareck; Plate 4: Courtesy of Earthworks/Lighthawk; Plate 5: Courtesy of Chris Donnan, © Easter Island Statue Project, Cotsen Institute of Archaeology, UCLA; Plates and 7: Photographs by David C Ochsner, © Easter Island Statue Project; Plate 8: Photograph by Jo Anne Van Tilburg, © Easter Island Statue Project; Plate 9: Jim Wark/Air Photo North America; Plate 10: Nancy Carter/North Wind Picture Archives; Plate 11: Courtesy of the National Park Service, photograph by Dave Six; Plates 12 and 13: © Steve MacAulay; Plate 14: © 2000 Bonampak Documentation Project, courtesy of Mary Miller, painting by Heather Hunt with Leonard Ashby; Plate 15: © Jon Vidar Sigurdsson/Nordic Photos; Plate 16: © Bill Bachmann/Danita Delimont.com; Plate 17: © Irene Owsley; Plate 18: © Staffan Widstrand; Plate 19: Spencer Collection, nla.pic.an2270347, National Library of Australia; Plate 20: © Jon Arnold/DanitaDelimont.com; Plates 21 and 22: Corinne Dufka; Plate 23: UN/DPI; Plate 24: AP Photo/Daniel Morel; Plate 25: Reuters/Bobby VIP/Landov; Plate 26: Courtesy of George Leung, University of Massachusetts Dartmouth; Plate 27: Reuters/ Landov; Plate 28: © John P Baker; Plate 29: © G R “Dick” Roberts/National Science Image Library, New Zealand; Plate 30: National Archives of Australia, A1200, L44186; Plate 31: Courtesy of Dr Kerry Britton/USDA Forest Service; Plate 32: Cecil Stoughton, White House/John Fitzgerald Kennedy Library, Boston; Plate 33: AP Photo/Dave Cauklin; Plate 34: © Pablo Bartholomew/Liaison; Plate 35: C Mayhew & R Simmon (NASA/GSFC), NOAA/NGDC, DMSP Digital Archive; Plate 36: Courtesy of FAAC USA; Plate 37: Jim Wark/Air Photo North America; Plate 38: © David R Frazier Photolibrary, Inc.; Plate 39: Keystone/Getty Images; Plate 40: Photograph © Alex J de Haan; Plate 41: © Ancient Art and Architecture/DanitaDelimont.com; Plate 42: Reuters/Chor Sokunthea/Landov ... afterword published 2011 Copyright © Jared Diamond, 2005, 2011 All rights reserved M aps by Jeffrey L Ward Collapse : how societies choose to fail or succeed / Jared Diamond p cm Includes index eISBN... limits of their environments Jared Diamond has written a book to help us the same.” —Los Angeles Times “With Collapse, Jared Diamond has written a fascinating account of the collapse of civilizations... in somewhat different ways, while many societies didn’t collapse at all The risk of such collapses today is now a matter of increasing concern; indeed, collapses have already materialized for