Table of Contents ABOUT THE AUTHOR Title Page Copyright Page Dedication PART ONE - THE OLD WAR ENDS Chapter - THINGS FALL APART Chapter - HOW TO FIGHT THIS WAR Chapter - KEANE TAKES COMMAND Chapter - A STRATEGY IS BORN PART TWO - A NEW WAR BEGINS Chapter - IF YOU’RE SO SMART Chapter - GAMBLING ON A “SHITTY HAND” Chapter - SIGNS OF LIFE IN BAGHDAD Chapter - THE DOMESTIC OPPOSITION COLLAPSES PART THREE - WAR WITHOUT END Chapter - THE TWILIGHT ZONE Chapter 10 - BIG WASTA Chapter 11 - AFTER THE SURGE Chapter 12 - OBAMA’S WAR EPILOGUE AFTERWORD APPENDIXES NOTES Acknowledgements INDEX Praise for The Gamble “In his absorbing, impressively researched new book, The Gamble, Ricks examines how U.S goals in Iraq changed in late 2006 Through his impressive access to military and political leaders, Ricks demonstrates that what fueled this change was the lack of any recognizable progress in Iraq.” —The Boston Globe “[A] grim forecast [by] the nation’s best-known defense correspondent.” —Mike Allen, Politico “It is Ricks’ look forward that gives this book its tremendous value, not the who-did-what-when chronicle of the surge.” —Tony Capaccio, Bloomberg “Thomas E Ricks eavesdrops on the high-ranking squabble over The Gamble (Penguin), General Petraeus’s plan to launch the surge in Iraq.” —Vanity Fair “[The Gamble] suggests there may be a light at the end of the tunnel, but if there is, it’s flickering—and a long way off.” —Time “If you enjoyed Fiasco, thrilled to have your prejudices about the clueless Bush administration confirmed, it’s your responsibility to read The Gamble.” —Salon.com “Rich in both vignettes and interviews.” —The Economist “The principle value of Mr Ricks’ book beyond being a historical chronicle is the light it may shed on the future course of events in Afghanistan.” —The Washington Times “A journalistic achievement of high order.” —The Second Pass.com “Commendable.” —The Weekly Standard “The Gamble details the intriguing story of the U.S military in Iraq from 2006 to 2008 from a fresh and credible perspective Ricks’ book is a wake-up call for any neoconservative who remains too optimistic about the war’s progress This book is a must read for any member of the U.S military or informed American who wants to know what really took place in Iraq in the last few years.” —Baltimore Republican Examiner “The Gamble is the most remarkable book I’ve read in ages.” —Macleans ABOUT THE AUTHOR Thomas E Ricks is a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, the only Washington think tank led by veterans of our current wars He also writes the blog The Best Defense for Foreign Policy magazine Previously he was a reporter for twenty-six years at The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal A member of two Pulitzer Prize-winning teams for national reporting, he has reported on U.S military activities in Somalia, Haiti, Korea, Bosnia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Kuwait, Turkey, Afghanistan, and Iraq He is the author of Fiasco, Making the Corps, and A Soldier’s Duty PENGUIN BOOKS Published by the Penguin Group Penguin Group (USA) Inc., 375 Hudson Street, New York, New York 10014, U.S.A Penguin Group (Canada), 90 Eglinton Avenue East, Suite 700, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M4P 2Y3 (a division of Pearson Penguin Canada Inc.) Penguin Books Ltd, 80 Strand, London WC2R 0RL, England Penguin Ireland, 25 St Stephen’s Green, Dublin 2, Ireland (a division of Penguin Books Ltd) Penguin Group (Australia), 250 Camberwell Road, Camberwell, Victoria 3124, Australia (a division of Pearson Australia Group Pty Ltd) Penguin Books India Pvt Ltd, 11 Community Centre, Panchsheel Park, New Delhi - 110 017, India Penguin Group (NZ), 67 Apollo Drive, Rosedale, North Shore 0632, New Zealand (a division of Pearson New Zealand Ltd) Penguin Books (South Africa) (Pty) Ltd, 24 Sturdee Avenue, Rosebank, Johannesburg 2196, South Africa Penguin Books Ltd, Registered Offices: 80 Strand, London WC2R 0RL, England First published in the United States of America by The Penguin Press, a member of Penguin Group (USA) Inc 2009 This edition with a new afterword published in Penguin Books 2010 Copyright © Thomas E Ricks, 2009, 2010 All rights reserved eISBN : 978-1-101-19206-1 The scanning, uploading and distribution of this book via the Internet or via any other means without the permission of the publisher is illegal and punishable by law Please purchase only authorized electronic editions, and not participate in or encourage electronic piracy of copyrighted materials Your support of the author’s rights is appreciated http://us.penguingroup.com FOR MY WIFE, WITH LOVE AND GRATITUDE Hagel, Chuck Haggis, Paul Haiti Haji Abu Abed Hakim, Abdul Aziz alHalloran, Joseph Hallums, James Hammes, T X Hammond, Jeffrey Hanna, Michael Hannah, John Hartson, Joshua Harvey, Derek Harvey, Francis Hassan, Walid Hatch, Orrin Hatley, John Health Ministry, Iraqi Heinl, Mark Herrington, Stuart Hezbollah Hill, Command Sgt Hilterman, Joost Hoffman, Bruce Hollopeter, Josiah Holshek, Christopher Hoover, J Edgar Horton, Alex Horvath, Jan House of Representatives, U.S Armed Services Committee of Foreign Affairs Committee of Housey, Freddie “How All This Ends” (Fastabend) Howard, Michael “How to Win the War in Al Anbar, by CPT Trav.” Huck, Richard Hull, Jeanne Hungary Hurriyah (Baghdad neighborhood) Hussein, Saddam Imad, Sheikh information dominance Interior Ministry, Iraq International Criminal Court International Crisis Group In the Valley of Elah (film) Iran Iranian Revolution Guard Iran-Iraq war Iraq: civil war in constitution of corruption in economy of elections in electricity in ethnic cleansing in IEDs, and roadside and car bombs in occupation of police in “postoccupation” force in reconstruction of security contractors in withdrawal schedule from Iraq, insurgents in in alliance with U.S Iraqi army Iraqi Ground Forces Command Iraqi National Police Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) Iraq Study Group Iraq war: American abuses in; see also Abu Ghraib; Haditha, Iraq basic assumptions of casualties in cost of “Desert Crossing” plan for fifth anniversary of goals of military recruits affected by news coverage of posttraumatic stress disorder in Senate hearing on strategic changes in see also surge, Iraq war ISCI Islamic Army Islamic State of Iraq Israel Ivey, Tim Jabouri, Najim Abed alJanabi, Nazar Japan Jasim, Muhanned Jassim, Abdul Qadir Muhammed Jassim, Abu Ali Jassim, Sa’d Jayih, Ghasan Jaysh al-Mahdi (JAM) Jensen, Sterling Johnson, Karlton Johnson, Lyndon B Joint Chiefs of Staff Joint Security Stations Jokinen, Shawn Jordan Jumayli, Mishan alJustice Ministry, Iraqi Kagan, Fred Kahl, Colin Kallop, William Kaplan, Robert Karbala, Iraq Katrina, Hurricane Keane, Jack Pace admonished by Rumsfeld’s meetings with surge and Keegan, John Keirsey, Jim Kellogg, Joseph, Jr Kelly, John Kennedy, Chris Kenya Kerbouly, Ziad Khalaf alKhafif, Younis Salim Khalilzad, Zalmay Khamis, Sheik Khatami, Muhammed Kilcullen, David top ten rules of Killebrew, Bob King, Alan Kinnard, Douglas Kirkuk, Iraq Kissinger, Henry Klein, Gary Korea Kosovo Krepinevich, Andrew Kristol, William Kubaisat, Abdul Qadir alKubasi, Omar Kuehl, Dale Kufa, Iraq Ku Klux Klan Kulmayer, Jeffrey Kurds Kuwait Laurence, John Lawrence, T E Leahy, Michael Lebanon Lechner, James Lehr, Jon Lemons, Alexander Levin, Carl Lewis, Jeremy Libby, Dustin Libby, Scooter Lincoln, Abraham Lindsay, Jon Lions or Lambs (film) Lloyd George, David local militias Long, Austin Lubna, Abu Lugar, Richard Luti, William Lynch, Marc Lynch, Rick McCaffrey, Barry McCain, John McChrystal, Stanley McClellan, George McClung, Megan McConnell, Mitch McCreary, John McDonald, Mark McDougall, Jeff MacFarland, Sean McGinnis, Ross McGovern, Rory McGurk, Brett Mackesy, Piers McMaster, H R McNally, Liz McNamara, Robert Mahdi, Adel Abdul Mahdi Army, see Jaysh al-Mahdi (JAM) Mahmudiyah (Baghdad suburb) Makay, Don Makky, Alaa Malaya Maliki, Nouri alAmerican opposition to and Basra campaign on Iraqi reconciliation as overconfident Pelosi and Murtha’s meeting with Petraeus’s meetings with Malkasian, Carter Malouki mosque Mansoor, Peter Mansour Hotel Mariner, Rosemary Markwardt, Albert Marshall, George Marston, Daniel Martin, John Martin, Zachary Mashoot, Asad Amer Mason, Bradley Mattis, James “Meanwhile, Back at the Ranch” Meese, Michael Mendelson, David Merkley, Jeff “Mesopotamian Stampede, The,” Metz, Steven Michael, Stephen Michaelis, Patrick Military Review Miller, Austin Miller, Charlie Miller, James Miska, Steven Mohan, General Monsoor, Michael Moore, Solomon Mora, Omar Moran, James P., Jr Mosul, Iraq MoveOn.org Mubarak, Hosni Muhammed, Saleh mukthar Mullen, Michael Multi-National Forces Muqdadiyah, Iraq Murtha, John Musaid, Jabar Muttalibi, Saad Yousef alMyers, Richard Myers, Roy Nagl, John Najaf, Iraq Napoleon I, emperor of France Nasr, Vali National Security Council (NSC) “National Strategy for Victory in Iraq,” nation building NATO Naval Criminal Investigative Service neoconservatism Newbold, Gregory Newland, Jan New York Times Nielsen, Suzanne Nineveh, Iraq Niva, Steve Northwest Baghdad Regional Security Summit Nukisa, Iraq Nunez, Ocatavio Obama, Barack Odierno, Anthony Odierno, Raymond Bridging Strategy and in change of command in departure from Iraq Gates’s meeting with heavy-handedness of on Iraqi military commanders Petraeus’s relationship with postelection concerns of on “postoccupation” force on pulling out troops “reconciliation cell” established by response to detainee abuse Sky’s relationship with surge plans and principles of surge pressed by Office of Management and Budget oil Ollivant, Douglas Operation Close Encounters Othman, Mahmoud Othman, Sadi Pace, Peter Pacific Command Pakistan Parliament, Iraqi Partlow, Joshua Paschal, David Pasquarette, James Patriquin, Travis Pelosi, Nancy Perkins, Davis Perkins, Jeremy Perle, Richard Perry, William Peshmerga Petraeus, David background of Basra campaign and in charge of Fort Leavenworth congressional testimony of counterinsurgency manual and critics of determination of doctoral dissertation of final letter to troops by Gates’s offer of command to House Foreign Affairs Committee testimony of at insurgency manual conference on Iraqi elections Iraq team formed by in “light infantry,” local militias set up by made head of Central Command Maliki’s talks with in meetings with Bush Mosul campaign of Obama’s meeting with Petraeus, David (cont.) Odierno’s relationship with optimism of personality of on rumor of JAM deal shooting of surge and timetables and Petraeus, Holly Petraeus, Sixtus Phillips, Andrews Poirier, David Poland Pomante, Vincent Pool, Jeffrey S Porter, Patrick Powell, Colin Powell, James Press, Elliott “Producing Victory,” Project for the New American Century Qatar Quayle, Chad Quds Force Raeford Drop Zone Raghavan, Sudarsan Rahman, Abel Rainey, James Ramadi, Iraq RAND Corporation rapid decisive operations Rapp, Bill Rasheed, Mamoun Sami Rayburn, Joel Reagan, Ronald Reconstruction Redacted (film) Reed, Jack Reese, Timothy Reid, Harry Remington, Frederic Republican Guard Republicans “revolt of the generals,” Ribat, Khadem alRice, Condoleezza Riggs, John Risha, Sittar albuRodriguez, Robert Rohrabacher, Dana Rome Roosevelt, Franklin D Rose, Michael Rove, Karl Rubaie, Mowaffak alRubin, Alissa Rumsfeld, Donald Keane’s meetings with removal of and “revolt of the generals,” as wary of making changes Russia Ryndych, Yevgeniy Sabah, Lt Col Sab al-Bor, Iraq Sadr, Moqtada al- in Basra campaign cease-fire declared by Sadr, Muhammed Bakr Sadr City (Baghdad neighborhood) Salahuddin Provinces Salem, Aisha Salem, Safah Yunis Salem, Zainab Salih, Barham Salmani, Abu Mohammed Salman Pak, Iraq Samarra, Iraq Sanchez, Ricardo Sassaman, Nathan Saville, Jack Scales, Robert, Jr Schmitt, Gary School of Advanced Military Studies Schoomaker, Peter Scowcroft, Brent Scranton, Deborah “Security Now” Senate, U.S.: Armed Service Committee of Foreign Relations Committee of Sepp, Kalev September 11 attacks Sewall, Sarah Shadid, Anthony Shama, Hassan Shammar tribe Sharratt, Justin Sheehan, John Shelton, Hugh Sherman, William T Shiite militias Shiites Shiloh, battle of Shining Path Shinseki, Eric Shorja market Showman, Lee Shultz, George Silverman, Adam Simon, Steven Sistani, Ayatollah Sky, Emma Small Wars Journal Smith, Gordon Snowe, Olympia Somalia Sons of Iraq Southern Command Stampede, The (Remington) Stanton, Edwin Stanton, Martin Starr, Ann Exline State Department, U.S Stavridis, James Steele, Michael Stone, Douglas Strachan, Hew Strader, Kent Strmecki, Marin Struck, Doug Sunnis Sunni Triangle Supreme Command (Cohen) surge, Iraq war accomplishments of AEI conference on Biden on council of colonels’ push for counteroffensive against five brigades for future of initiation of Iraq military training in Keane and low point of McCain’s support for mental health of soldiers and minisurge in Odierno’s plans and principles for Odierno’s pressing of opposition to Pace’s version of pessimism about Petraeus’s congressional testimony on psychological impact of “Security Now” plan for as tactical success Sutherland, David Swan, Guy Swannack, Charles Syria Tall Afar, Iraq Tamariyah, Iraq Tarmiyah, battle of Tarsa, Mike Tatum, Stephen Tenet, George Terrazas, Miguel Tertulien, Yvenson Thomson, J T Thurman, James Tikrit, Iraq Together Forward Together Forward torture Tovo, Kenneth Townsend, Steve Triangle of Death “Twenty-Eight Articles” (Kilcullen) Umm Qasr, Iraq United Iraqi Alliance United Nations Vang, Pao Veterans of Foreign Wars Vickers, Michael Vietnam War Visser, Reidar Voinovich, George Von Plinsky, Anthony Voorhies, David Wald, Charles Wallace, Cassandra Wallace, Cory Wallace, William Walter Reed Army Medical Center War for America, The (Mackesy) Ware, Michael War Managers, The (Kinnard) Warner, John War Tapes, The (film) War Within, The (Woodward) Washington Institute for Near East Policy Washington Post Webb, James Webb, Jimmy Weber, Gregory Weber, Vin Webster, Nathan West, Francis “Bing” White, Jeffrey White, Wayne Whitney, Matt Wicker, Roger Wilbraham, Andy Williams, Lee Williamson, Dan Williamson, Schuyler Wilson, Austin Wilson, Martin Wink, Jay Winnefeld, James “Sandy,” Jr Wisme, Sarhan Hassan Wolfowitz, Paul Woodward, Bob Work, Robert World War I World War II Wright, Andrew Wuterich, Frank Yemen Yezidi people Yingling, Paul Yusifyah, Iraq Zaganiyah, Iraq Zarqawi, Abu Musab alZawahiri, Ayman alZelikow, Philip Zinni, Anthony Zobaie, Faisal Ismail al- ... we are there now is because of the Petraeus surge, which shifted the balance so that reasonable people could say there might be a better alternative than chaos.” In a Middle Eastern restaurant... —Baltimore Republican Examiner The Gamble is the most remarkable book I’ve read in ages.” —Macleans ABOUT THE AUTHOR Thomas E Ricks is a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, the. .. isolated bases that the military termed “Super FOBs.” That move was arguably simply a retreat in place Casey may have been under the sway of the view popular in the military that the American