The Challenges of Unsustainable Growth

The Challenges of Unsustainable Growth http://gapminder.org/ José L FernándezSolís Modules 04 & 05 Green Infrastructure and Sustainable Communities XX-1 On Technology / Sobre la tecnología “The essence of modern technology starts human beings upon the way of THAT revealing through which reality everywhere, more or less distinctly, becomes resource” Heidegger (1954) “toda realidad se converte en recurso” A new Paradigm: Numbers and Time / un nuevo paradigma: números y tiempo Very Large Numbers Billions Millions Thousan ds Years Decades Centurie s Long Tern Horizon Forces Behind Construction / las fuerzas detrás de la construcción POPULATION 20.0 AFFLUENCE 10.0 Theoretical scenario of population demographics moving from needs to wants 2050 2100 year 2000 5.0 tc= 35 approx 2.5 6.5 B / 2005 1950 Population Growth ? Exponentials Population Dynamicshttp://www.gapminder.org/downloads/presentations Growth in Income, Population and Technology / crecimiento en entradas, poblacion y technologia 6,000 Population (Millions) 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Sustainability and Exponential Growth / Sostenibilidad y el crecimiento exponencial Exponentialoid Unsustainable Growth to be restrained by Artificial sustainability forces Natural Sustainability -Negated by human intervention Natural Sustainability – restrained growth 1000 800 600 400 300 200 Figura China Construction Floor Space Thompson Datastream FT 5/31/08 2010 2007 2005 2000 100 1996 Millions of square meters per year China Construction Activity Growth / actividad de la construcción en la China tc = doubling times / tiempo para duplicar • Exponential growth: – Population – Affluence (tc = 35 yrs) (tc = 10 – 15 yrs) triple by 2030 • Container shipment (International, 06) double in 10 yrs – Construction in general (as of 2006) • Global trends (tc = 15 yrs) • Air passengers (Boeing, 07) • USA trends – Resource consumption – Total Emissions generation (tc = 25 yrs) (tc = yrs) (tc = yrs) Per Capita Consumption (2003) / consumo de electricidad por capita (Approx population) / kilowatt hour • USA (300M) 14,057.0 kWh (1.0) • France 7,585.5 kWh (0.5) • Germany 6,900.0 kWh (0.4) • China (1,600M) 1,378.5 kWh (0.1) • Bangladesh 594.0 kWh (0.05) http://www.gapminder.org/ Human development trends/carbon Dioxide/Population/Size carbon dioxide/select Affluence: Evolution of Global GDP and Per Capita GDP GDP per capita ($,000) GDP levels ($,000 Billions) 1990 international PPP dollars A.D 1000 1500 1600 1700 1820 1900 1950 2000 per capita GDP Source: Data from: Maddison, Angus 2001 The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective Paris: OECD From Fig 4.3 & 4.4 POPULATION AFFLUENCE Demand Loop / Circulo de demanda Fig 4.5 World-view: Building Demand and Emissions, Resource Consumption, Climate Change EoI exponential growth Elements that influence exponential growth Global Population Estimates 80% Ratios 20% - 10 % Migration Needs Wants 20% Consumption 80% What is projected / Projecciones Climate models predict increasing emissions will cause a temp increase Source : IPCC AR4t Taming the Exponentialoid / domando la exponencial C A B A New Design Paradigm What happens when we something in extremely large number? Quantity = Magnitude Extremely large numbers i.e billions ≈ ∞ What happens when we something for an indefinite period of time? Long term horizon i.e hundreds of years ≈ ∞ Time Line = Direction Can we increase numbers indefinitely and for an indefinite time? Energ y Natural World Un -li m d ite Un Su limi pp ted ly Fact m Li Assumptio n ite d Framework of Assumptions and Facts shared between the Artificial and Natural Worlds Li Su mit pp ed ly Capit al Artificial World Need: A common currency Assumptio n Yesterday: Independent resources waste INDEPENDENT Today: Grid resources waste GRID DEPENDENT Future: Hybrid Rebates Photo-voltaic Subsidies Hydrogen power generation Carbon Trading Schemes Bio-gas Day Night waste & resources waste & resources HYBRID From Independent to Grid to Hybrid Option Small Numbers Option Option small numbers / very large scale waste & resources waste & resources Option small scale / very large numbers Very Large Numbers Small Scale Very Large Scales HYBRID The Car Paradigm New Paradigm? Situation / el principio precaucionario “Situations in life often permit no delay; and when we cannot determine the method which is certainly best, we must follow the one which is probably the best… if the method selected is not indeed a good one, at last the reasons for selecting it are excellent.” Rene Descartes quoted by Koen, 2003, “Discussion of THE method,” all-is-heuristics Q&A/ conclusiones, preguntas y respuestas Our current form of economic development is not sustainable This situation will likely reach crisis proportions in 10-20 years Issues of sustainability are changing the way business and government operate What needs to change to tame exponential growth?