Applied drought modeling, prediction, and mitigation

Applied Drought Modeling, Prediction, and Mitigation Applied Drought Modeling, Prediction, and Mitigation By Zek^ai S ¸en King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia AMSTERDAM • BOSTON • HEIDELBERG • LONDON • NEW YORK • OXFORD PARIS • SAN DIEGO • SAN FRANCISCO • SINGAPORE • SYDNEY • TOKYO Elsevier Radarweg 29, PO Box 211, 1000 AE Amsterdam, Netherlands The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford OX5 1GB, UK 225 Wyman Street, Waltham, MA 02451, USA © 2015 Elsevier Inc All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher Details on how to seek permission, further information about the Publisher’s permissions policies and our arrangements with organizations such as the Copyright Clearance Center and the Copyright Licensing Agency, can be found at our website: www.elsevier.com/permissions This book and the individual contributions contained in it are protected under copyright by the Publisher (other than as may be noted herein) Notices Knowledge and best practice in this field are constantly changing As new research and experience broaden our understanding, changes in research methods, professional practices, or medical treatment may become necessary Practitioners and researchers must always rely on their own experience and knowledge in evaluating and using any information, methods, compounds, or experiments described herein In using such information or methods they should be mindful of their own safety and the safety of others, including parties for whom they have a professional responsibility To the fullest extent of the law, neither the Publisher nor the authors, contributors, or editors, assume any liability for any injury and/or damage to persons or property as a matter of products liability, negligence or otherwise, or from any use or operation of any methods, products, instructions, or ideas contained in the material herein British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress For information on all Elsevier publications visit our website at http://store.elsevier.com/ ISBN: 978-0-12-802176-7 Dedication Noah phenomenon—(great flood, wet spell) Joseph phenomenon—(drought, dry spell) There is sensitive balance in nature as a sequence of dry and wet periods, which needs care for their preservations without destroying the balance in the environment This book is dedicated to those who care for such a balance by logical, rational, scientific, and ethical applications for the sake of other living creatures’ rights viii Preface The sustainability of any society is dependent on different precious material resources such as water, energy, and technology, which must be traced by modern scientific research work outputs application so as not to meet with any restrictive, shortage, stress, or scarcity situations Among the natural hazards phenomena, the most effective one for the long run is the continuation of dry spells (water demand deficiency), which occurs in the form of drought and leaves different imprints on the society at large Droughts have a gradual “creeping” feature, with slow developments and prolonged effects on the daily activities of human life In general, settlers in humid regions have high confidence in their water resources supply and, therefore, they may not feel water scarcity impacts in time Consequently, droughts may be more harmful in humid regions than arid regions Accordingly, especially agricultural investments may be inflicted at maximum harm rates as a result of unexpected drought periods Among the primary drought hazards are crop yield, animal husbandry, hydroelectric energy generation, reductions and decrease in industrial products, and navigation problems in low river flows On the other hand, secondary effects include soil erosion, dust storms, forest fires, increase in plant diseases, insect hurdle, decrease in social and individual health, pollution concentration increase, deterioration in water quality, and so forth In the literature simple drought descriptors are presented based on a single or few hydrometeorological variables such as rainfall, precipitation, solar irradiation, and wind speed Rather than their individual applications, their joint assessments are given for the first time in this book by statistical ensemble averages and fuzzy inference system approaches All of these indicate the importance of drought preparedness, early warning, proper drought modeling, and appropriate predictions In this book the list of economic, environmental, and social drought impacts are explained in detail, and it gives the impression that there is no sector that may be safe from drought implications The most significant part of drought identification, assessment, and prediction studies is the modeling procedures that furnish the foundation for proper strategic planning, management, application, and implementation of output principles in a society prior the next drought occurrence This book presents innovative drought modeling procedures by taking into consideration the inherent uncertainty feature in drought evolution To account objectively for the uncertainty, probabilistic, statistical, stochastic, and fuzzy methodologies are employed with a set of simplifying assumptions The necessary ix x Preface formulations and their quantitative applications through numerical solution approaches are presented for temporal and spatial drought durations, total end average deficits, and intensity with the necessary areal coverage extension formulations Drought events are explained in the last two chapters from the climate change and mitigation points of view with an emphasis on water resources supply and demand patterns, rainfall and runoff harvestings, groundwater recharge possibilities, and proper risk and hazard management points of view As one of the mitigation procedures, weather modification and its application in Istanbul City, Turkey, is explained with some new formulations and it is recommended that at its present scientific level the weather modification (cloud seeding) procedures are not successfully applicable; therefore, cloud seeding must remain in the scientific research domain without practical, fruitful outputs Different engineering structural drought combat procedures are explained and a list of recommendations for drought mitigation is provided The author has gained vast experience during a long stay as a staff member at the King Abdulaziz University Faculty of Earth Sciences and recently at the Faculty of Meteorology and Arid Lands, Excellency Center for Climate Change Research, Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia He became acquainted with different desertification, drought, groundwater recharge, water harvesting, and hydrogeological water management procedures and strategies and published numerous papers in top scientific journals Another part of his extensive experience comes from meteorology, hydrology, and hydraulic studies at the Technical University of Istanbul, Turkey, in addition to the Turkish Water Foundation concerning the conjunctive and separate surface and groundwater resources under uncertainty principles and scientific modeling studies leading to predictions His long experience for about years in the workgroup of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), as the freshwater resources chapter lead author provided a global picture and scientific views about possible climate change impacts on precious water resources including vulnerability, combat, and mitigation Most of the content of this book includes experience gained during the stay of the author in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; hence, he would like to extend his cordial appreciation to his colleagues at different faculties at the King Abdulaziz University and to its high-level administrators The author would like to extend his appreciation to the Saudi Geological Survey (SGS), Jeddah, and Prince Sultan Research Center for Environment, Water, Desert, King Saud University, Riyadh, where he also gained experience Similar gratefulness is also extended to the Turkish Water Foundation and Istanbul Technical University, and to those who made constructive suggestions during the preparation of this book I wrote several books in Turkish, English, and Arabic and many scientific papers, but nothing gives me the happiness as being at the service of people who seek scientific knowledge and information Any fruitful impact of this Preface xi book will make the author spiritually very content and happy Finally, whatever my achievements, under their foundations is the patience and continuous support of my wife Fatma S¸en, who deserves thanks from the bottom of my heart Zek^ai S¸en Erenk€oy, Istanbul, Turkey March 13, 2015 Chapter | ONE Introduction CHAPTER OUTLINE 1.1 General 1.2 Historical View .5 1.3 Atmospheric Composition and Drought 1.4 Drought Definitions 13 1.5 Droughts, Aridity, and Desertification 15 1.6 Drought Impacts 18 1.7 Drought Regions 20 1.8 Drought Types and Their Impacts 21 1.8.1 1.8.2 1.8.3 1.8.4 1.8.5 1.8.6 Meteorological Drought 25 Hydrological Drought 26 Agricultural Drought 30 Socioeconomic Drought 33 Famine 34 Water Shortages and Effects 35 1.9 Significant Drought Mitigation Points 37 References 39 1.1 GENERAL Water is a major essential commodity for the survival of all living creatures Life sustainability is not possible without it Abundance of water brings comfort, whereas in its scarceness life becomes miserable Human beings are dependent on water in almost every activity within the environment If water is scarce or not available in sufficient quantities at a location, then human beings migrate to better water resources locations, which are riverbanks, lakes, seashores, oases, or shallow groundwater reservoirs Evolution and development of any civilization has roots in water-related management activities Such activities are the starts of social gatherings, cultures, and civilizations The history of civilizations indicates that even in dry lands groundwater resources had dominant roles through shallow wells or natural springs Any civilization is under the pressure of internal and external impacts and urges for food security, which cannot be achieved without water security Water resources have been and still are under internal and external pressures The foundation of any civilization Applied Drought Modeling, Prediction, and Mitigation © 2015 Elsevier Inc All rights reserved Introduction includes irrigation and agriculture, land use, seeding, and the quality control of products through technological developments, all of which drive the economic system of the society Mismanagement of water resources, acid rains pollution, overexploitation, and other human activities play roles in the appearance, continuity, areal extent, and severity of droughts Even though the selection of settlement locations are made by humans, natural events such as droughts, floods, earthquakes, and others are among the external hazards that may affect societies at any time without preparedness against the final consequences For instance, extreme water events such as droughts and floods should be managed in such a way that extra amounts of water should be stored in some way so as to be of benefit during future dry spells when the water supply may fall short of meeting the demand Otherwise, the society may go through a water stress period until a suitable supply is either found from an engineering point of view or by the reoccurrence of abundant rainfall events These days, water scarcity and stress increase day after day Among the main reasons for water scarcity are the following points: Increase in world population Burst in urbanization Increase in the needs of industrial production Differences in water distribution, movement, contamination, pollution, and deteriorations may result in undesirable ecological consequences During the last 25–30 years, due to global warming, greenhouse effects, and as a result of climate change, exploitable water resource quantities are bound to decrease in many parts of the world The most important effect of climate change on water resources is increase in the overall uncertainty associated with the management and supply of freshwater resources Significant hydrological components such as storms, rainfall, stream flow, soil moisture, and evaporation are substantially random in their behavior and, accordingly, hydrologists or water specialists try to quantify them in terms of uncertain scientific methodologies; namely, probability, statistics, and at-large stochastic approaches (“see chapters: Temporal Drought Analysis and Modeling; Regional Drought Analysis and Modeling; Spatiotemporal Drought Analysis and Modeling”) and, most recently, as chaotic and fuzzy systems (“see chapter: Basic Drought Indicators”) These scientific approaches provide predictions on the bases that the surrounding environmental effects and the climatic change are all stationary Hence, classical approaches assume that the pattern of the local environmental and global climatic changes in the recent past will be repeated in the near future It must not be forgotten at this stage that, certainly, the future pattern of climatic change and its consequences will not look like the past behaviors It is, therefore, necessary to try and manage water supply systems with more care about the undesirable possible future extreme drought cases This brings into the equation the concept of risk and management under a risky environment with probabilistic assessments and modeling (“see chapter: Climate Change, Droughts, and Water Resources”) 1.1 General Avalanche and land slide 6% Drought 9% Storms 28% Earthquake 8% Heat waves 5% Volcanic eruptions 2% Fires 5% Floods 37% FIG 1.1 Natural disaster percentages (WMO, 2005) Water-related disasters (droughts, floods, hurricanes, typhoons, tsunamis) inflict a terrible toll on human life and property, far greater than earthquake damages (Fig 1.1) About 90% of natural hazards are related to air, climate, and water Human activities should be planned in such a way that significant reduction of vulnerability can be made prior to drought occurrence (“see chapters: Climate Change, Droughts, and Water Resources; Drought Hazard Mitigation and Risk”) Nowadays, there is extensive knowledge, information, and capacity to disperse warnings even to the remotest places on the Earth, which help to alert people to take the necessary precautions against any natural disaster danger, in general, and drought effects, in particular On a global scale, very intensive and extensive drought distribution was observed during 1982–84 The most vulnerable parts of the world were West Africa, Sudan-Sahel, east and southeast Africa, southern and southeastern parts of Asia, the western Pacific and Australia, and southern parts of the United States Among the secondary effects of droughts are soil erosion, and consequent dust storms, forest fires, plant diseases, insect plagues, decrease of personal and public hygiene, increased concentration of pollutants, degradation of water quality, harmful effects on wildlife, and deterioration in the quality of the visual landscape While floods, earthquakes, and cyclones are disasters associated with extreme events, droughts are the result of the low extremes such as unavailability of sufficient water They seldom cause dramatic losses of human life except through famine Generally, drought assessments at any point in a region can be achieved by taking into consideration time series records of the concerned variable The first studies by Gumbel (1958) considered the probability of the lowest records during fixed periods They are point wise instantaneous evaluations and, therefore, neither the drought coverage nor the areal extent can be modeled Rather uncertain temporal and areal drought extensiveness must be modeled and predicted by quantitative methodologies such as probabilistic, statistical, stochastic, and (recently) fuzzy logic rule approaches (S¸en, 2010) The first quantitative drought definition and studies by considering the threshold levels were References 457 Gabriel, K.R., Baras, M., 1970 The Israeli rainmaking experiment 1961–67 Final statistical tables and evaluation Technical report Department of Statistics, The Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel, 47 pp Gabriel, K.R., Rosenfeld, D., 1990 The second Israeli rainfall stimulation experiment: analysis of rainfall on both target area J Appl Meteorol 29, 1055–1067 Geringer, J., 2003 The future of drought management in the states Spectrum J State Gov 23–28 Gleick, P.H (Ed.), 1993 Water in Crisis: A Guide to the World’s Fresh Water Resources Oxford University Press, New York Godschalk, D.R., 2003 Urban hazard mitigation: creating resilient cities Nat Hazards Rev (3), 136–143 Grant, L.O., Mielke Jr., P.W., 1967 A randomized cloud seeding experiment at climax, Colorado 1960–1965 In: Proceedings of the Fifth Berkeley Symposium in Mathematical Statistics and Probability, vol University of California, California Gupta, K.K., 1973 Eigen problem solution by a combined storm sequence and inverse iteration technique Int J Numer Methods Eng 7, 17–42 Gupta, A.K., Tyagi, P., Sehgal, V.K., 2011 Drought disaster challenges and mitigation in India: strategic appraisal Curr Sci 100, 1795–1806 Hayes, S.C., Wilson, K.G., Gifford, E.V., Bissett, R., Piasecki, M., Batten, S.V., Byrd, M., Gregg, J., 2004 A preliminary trial of twelve-step facilitation and acceptance and commitment therapy with polysubstance-abusing methadone-maintained opiate addicts Behav Ther 35 (4), 667–688 Henderson, T.J., 1966 A ten year non-randomized cloud seeding program on the Kings river in California J Appl Meteorol 5, 697–702 Hobbs, P.V., Rangno, A.L., 1978 A reanalysis of the Skagit cloud seeding project J Appl Meteorol 17, 1661–1666 IPCC, 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Working Group I Report “The Physical Science Basis” Cambridge University Press, New York Kates, R.W., Kasperson, J.X., 1983 Comparative risk analysis of technological hazards (a review) Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 80, 7027–7038 Kenney, D.S., Klein, R.A., Clark, M.P., 2004 Use and effectiveness of municipal water restrictions during drought in Colorado J Am Water Resour Assoc 40 (1), 77–87 Knutson, C.L., 2008 The role of water conservation in drought planning J Soil Water Conserv 63 (5), 154–160 Knutson, C., Hayes, M., Phillips, T., 1998 How to Reduce Drought Risk A guide prepared by the Preparedness and Mitigation Working Group of the Western Drought Coordination Council Lincoln, Las Vegas, USA Lahlou, S., 2001 Functional aspects of social representations In: Deaux, K (Ed.), Representations of the Social: Bridging Theoretical Traditions Blackwell, Oxford, UK, pp 131–146 Lloyd, J.W., 1986 A review of aridity and groundwater Hydrol Process (1), 63–78 Lohani, V.K., Loganathan, G.V., 1997 An early warning system for drought management using the palmer drought index J Am Water Resour Assoc 33 (6), 1375–1386 Mooney, M.L., Lunn, G.W., 1969 The area of maximum effect resulting from the Lake Almanour randomized cloud seeding experiment J Appl Meteorol 66, 264–273 Naginders, S.S., Kundzewich, Z.W., 1997 Sustainability of water resources under increasing uncertainty In: Proceedings of Rabat Symposium S1, April 1997, IAHS Publication Number 240 Nelson, A.C., French, S.P., 2002 Plan quality and mitigating damage from natural disasters: a case study of the Northridge earthquake with planning policy considerations J Am Plan Assoc 68 (2), 194–207 Newkirk, R.T., 2001 The increasing cost of disasters in developed countries: a challenge to local planning and government J Conting Crisis Manag (3), 159–170 Neyman, J., Scott, E.L., 1967 Planning an experiment with cloud seeding In: Proceedings of the Fifth Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, Berkeley, CA, pp 327–350 458 Drought Hazard Mitigation and Risk O’Brien, L.V., Berry, H.L., Coleman, C., Hanigan, L.C., 2014 Drought as a mental health exposure Environ Res 131, 181–187 Omay, E., Incecik, S., S¸en, O., 1993 Istanbul rainfall increment project Final report (in Turkish) Rangno, A.L., 1979 A reanalysis of the Wolf Creek Pass cloud seeding experiments J Appl Meteorol 18, 579–605 Rockstrom, J., 2003 Resilience building and water demand management for drought mitigation Phys Chem Earth Parts A/B/C 28 (20–27), 869–877 Schmidt, D.H., Garland, K.A., 2012 Bone dry in Texas: resilience to drought on the upper Texas gulf coast J Plan Lit 1–12 S¸en, Z., 1995 Applied Hydrogeology for Scientists and Engineers Taylor and Francis Group, CRC Press, Boca Raton, 496 pp S¸en, Z., 2008 Wadi Hydrology Taylor and Francis Group, CRC Press, Boca Raton 347 pp S¸en, Z., 2013 Philosophical, Logical and Scientific Perspectives in Engineering Springer, New York, 260 pp S¸en, Z., 2014 Practical and Applied Hydrogeology Elsevier, Amsterdam, 406 pp S¸en, Z., Al-Subai, K., 2002 Hydrological considerations for dams sitting in arid regions: a Saudi Arabian study Hydrol Sci J 47 (2), 173–186 (Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques) S¸en, Z., Al Al-Sheikh, A., Al-Turbak, A.S., Al-Bassam, A.M., Al-Dakheel, A.M., 2011 Climate change impact and runoff harvesting in arid regions Arab J Geosci (1), 287–295 Smith, E J., 1967 Cloud seeding experiments in Australia In: Berkeley Symp on Math Statist and Prob Proc Fifth Berkeley Symp on Math Statist and Prob., vol 5, Univ of Calif Press, pp 161–176 Smith, K., Petley, D.N., 2009 Environmental Hazards: Assessing Risk and Reducing Disaster, fifth ed Routledge, New York Steinemann, A.C., Hayes, M.J., Cavalcanti, L.F.N., 2005 Drought indicators and triggers In: Drought and Water Crises: Science, Technology, and Management Issues, vol 86, CRC Press, p 71 Steinemann, A.C., Cavalcanti, L.F.N., 2006 Developing multiple indicators and triggers for drought plans J Water Resour Plann Manag 132 (3), 164–174 Tang, Z., Lindell, M.K., Prater, C.S., Brody, S.D., 2008 Measuring tsunami planning capacity on U.S Pacific Coast Nat Hazards Rev (2), 91–100 Tannehill, I.R., 1947 Drought, its causes and effects Soil Sci 64 (1), 83 United Utilities, 2008 Report on adaptation under the Climate Change Act Water PLC, pp 126–135 Vickers, A., 2001 Handbook of water use and conversion: Homes, Landscapes, Bussiness, Industries, Farms Amherst, Massachusetts., USA: WaterPlow Press Vickers, A., 2005 Managing demand: water conservation as a drought mitigation tool In: Wilhite, D.A (Ed.), Drought and Water Crises: Science, Technology, and Management Issues Dekker/CRC Press, New York Wade, B., 2000 Tapping into water shortage solutions Am City County http:// americancityandcounty.com/mag/government_tapping_water_shortage/ Wardekker, J.A., de Jong, A., Knoop, J.M., van der Sluijs, J.P., 2010 Operationalising a resilience approach to adapting an urban delta to uncertain climate changes Technol Forecast Soc Change 77, 987–998 Warner, J., Twomey, S., 1956 The use of silver iodide for seeding individual clouds Tellus 8, 453–459 Wilhelmi, O.V., Wilhite, D.A., 2002 Assessing vulnerability to agricultural drought: a Nebraska case study Nat Hazards 25 (1), 37–58 Wilhite, D.A., 2000 Drought preparedness and response in the context of Sub-Saharan Africa J Conting Crisis Manag (2), 81–92 Wilhite, D.A., 2005 Drought and Water Crises: Science, Technology, and Management Issues CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group, Boca Raton, 406 pp References 459 Wilhite, D.A., Knitson, C.L., 2008 Drought management planning: conditions for success Options Mediterr Ser A 80, 141–148 Wilhite, D.A., Smith, M.B., 2005 Drought as hazard: understanding the natural and social contex In: Wilhite, D.A (Ed.), Drought and Water Crises Science, Technology and Management Taylor and Francis, Boca Raton, pp 3–29 Wilhite, D.A., Svoboda, M.D., 2000 Early warning Systems for Drought Preparedness and Drought Management (Proc Expert Group Meeting, Lisbon) World Meteor Organiz., Geneva, pp 1–21 Wilhite, D.A., Beadle, C.L., Worledge, D., 1996 Leaf water relations of Eucalyptus globulus ssp globulus and E nitens: seasonal, drought and species effects Tree Physiol 16, 469–476 Wilhite, D.A., Hayes, M.J., Knutson, C., Smith, K.H., 2000 Planning for drought from crisis to risk management J Am Water Resour Assoc 36, 697–710 Wilhite, D.A., Svoboda, M.D., Hayes, M.J., 2007 Understanding the complex impacts of drought: a key to enhancing drought mitigation and preparedness Water Resour Manag 21 (5), 763–774 WMO, World Meteorological Organization, 2006 Drought monitoring and early warning: concepts, progress and future challenges WMO-No 1006 Woodley, W.L., Solak, M.E., 1990 Results of operational seeding over the watersheds of San Angelo, Texas J Weather Modif 22, 1–17 Yeh, W.-G., 1970 Reservoir management and operations models: a state-of-the-art review Water Resour Res 21 (12), 1797–1818 Yevjevich, V., Da Cunha, L., Vlachos, E., 1983 Coping with Droughts Water Resources Publications, Littleton, CO Index Note: Page numbers followed by f indicate figures, b indicate boxes and t indicate tables A Acceptable risk, 396 ACP See Areal coverage probabilities (ACP) Agricultural drought, 22–24f, 128, 208–210 agricultural products, impact on, 32 in agricultural societies, 31 CMI, 50, 51t, 68–69 crop yield predictions, 31 ecological drought, 31 economic losses, 30–31 harvest reduction, 31 implications of, 31 large-scale hazardous effects, 30–31 livestock, impact on, 31 mitigation strategies drought hazard reduction measure, 412 irrigation projects, 408 water demand management, 412 moisture deficits, 21–22 plant transpiration, reduction in, 32 precipitation and evapotranspiration, reduction in, 32 soil water and moisture availability, 30 sustainability of society, 32 Air pollution, 334 Albedo feedback, 12 Annual flow totals, temporal drought analysis conditional expectation, 187 Danube River annual flow series, 191, 191f deficit PDF calculations, 188b independent processes, 189–195 logarithmic normally distributed processes, 192–195 marginal PDF, 186 normally distributed independent processes, 190–192 symmetrical PDF, 185–186 unconditional expectation, 187–188 water deficit summation variance, 188 Annual maximum/minimum series (AMS) model, 117–118, 118t Areal coverage probabilities (ACP) conditional, 314 definition, 311 heterogeneous, 315, 316f Areal drought coverage, 208 Areal joint drought PDF, 224–227 Areal maximum probability coverages, 271 Areal precipitation coverage probability binomial PDF, 311 numerical application, 315–317 PoP, 311–312 probability derivation conceptual model, 312–313, 312f RF, 311–312 theoretical treatment, 312–315 Aridity index (AI), 74–76, 76f, 76b Arithmetic average, 110, 277, 312 Artificial droughts, 19 At-Taif station, Saudi Arabia average monthly temperature, 75, 75f location, 75 monthly aridity indexes, 76f, 76b Australian Drought Watch System, 66–68 Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) stochastic models, 120, 129 Autorun–autocorrelation parameter relationships, 134, 134f Average areal drought coverage variation, 284, 285f Average areal probability, 311–312 B Basic time interval, 110 Bhalme and Mooly drought index (BMDI), 50, 51t Binomial PDF, 311, 315 Budyko–Lettau drought ratio indicator (DRBL) annual average precipitation, 73 aridity belts, 73, 74t classification, 73, 74t solar irradiation, 73 water evaporation, latent heat for, 73 461 462 C Index Climate change adaptation strategies, 338–340 atmospheric composition and pollution artificial and anthropogenic effects, 324, 329–330, 337 chemical composition, 323–324 CO2 cycle, 331–333, 333f development of life, 324 economic losses, 329, 330f free oxygen, 324, 331 global warming, 329 hydrological cycle, 333–334, 334f hydrosphere, 333 inspection and control, 324 natural events, 323–324 natural/man-made pollution, 333–334, 334f negative and positive changes, 329 nitrogen (N) cycle, 330–331, 331f oxygen cycle, 331, 332f troposphere, 328–329 climate/hydrological extremes, 328 climate models (see Climate models) cost-effectiveness of, 385 desertification process, impacts on (see Desertification) disaster risk management, 328 drought disasters, 340–342 drought mitigation exposure and vulnerability, 414, 416–417 plan convenient planting patterns, 403–404 public awareness on impacts, 394 exposure, 328 flash flood appearances, arid and semiarid regions, 386 future studies, 386–387 healthy life, recommendations for, 324–325 hydrometeorological variability change in standard deviation, 326, 326f change on trend, 326, 326f shift in mean value, 326, 326f living organisms and creatures, appearance of, 322–323 major cities, impacts on air quality deteriorations, 363 chlorofluorocarbon emissions, increase in, 362–363 climate belt shifts, 362–363 environmental risk and health problems, 363 Climate change (Continued) extraordinary hydrological phenomena, 363 extreme events, increase in, 363 global temperature increase, 362–363 greenhouse gas emissions, increase in, 362–363 heat trapping, 363 hotter weather conditions, 363 Istanbul City, Turkey (see Istanbul area meteorology station) mitigation activities, 363 risk of flooding, 363 water conservation approaches, 363–364 natural climate changes, 322 Paleolithic era, 5–6 Pleistocene era, 5–6 pollen records, poor harvests, 325 Precambrian era, 5, 322–323 regional drought analysis, 207 resilience, 328 shifts of dry climate belts, 336, 336f socioeconomic differences, 328 in subtropical areas, 325 sun irradiation, 323 temperature and precipitation records, 322, 325 transformation, 328 troposphere thickness at equator, 334, 335b at polar regions, 334, 335b types of droughts, 337 water resources, effects on arid wadi concept, 386 drought and flood, 338, 376–377 engineering systems, 382–385 evaporation rates, increase in, 369–370 freshwater resources, 337–338, 337f, 386 global mean temperature, 373 groundwater recharge (see Groundwater recharge) infiltration capacity, 386 rainfall rates and frequencies, 374 regional water resources management, 386 role of CO2, 369 snow melt process, 338, 374 uncertain scientific methodologies, water availability, 373, 375–376 water cycle, variability in, 374 water demand, 370–371 Index Climate change (Continued) water resources management, 369–370 water supplies, 370–371 water shortages, 325 weather events, 322 world climate, historical cycles of, 6, 7t Climate models, 354–356 adaptation process, 352 computer models, 348–349 drought prediction models, 348–349 field models, 353 future behavior predictions, 349 GCM coupled GCMs, 349–350 local (national) model, 353–354, 355f model developing structure, 353, 354f outputs, 352–353 Riyadh station, Arabian Peninsula (see Riyadh City, Arabian Peninsula) solutions, 348–352 greenhouse gas emissions, 352 mathematical models, 349–350 RegCM, 348 SDM, 353 short-term weather changes, impact of, 349 SRES scenarios, 353 white Markov process, 353 Climatically appropriate for existing conditions (CAFEC), 54 Cloud seeding See Weather modification Conditional ACP, 314 Continuity curve (CC) method, 100–102, 101f, 102b Corn drought index, 50 Crisis management, 396 Critical drought duration definition, 112 dependent Bernoulli trials, 157–160, 158f, 160t, 160–161f first-order Markov process, 140–147, 141–142f, 143b, 144t, 145–147f, 145b, 147b independent Bernoulli trials, 154–157, 155f, 157b, 157f Rhine River, 153, 153f seasonal Bernoulli trials, 164–174, 169b, 170t, 171b, 171f second-order Markov process, 161–164, 162f, 164b, 165f, 166t, 167f Crop moisture index (CMI), 50, 51t, 68–69 463 Crop-specific drought index (CSDI) corn and soybean, 50 variables, time scales, and concepts, 50, 51t Cumulative distribution function (CDF), 79–82 Cumulative monthly precipitation (CMP), 366–368, 367–368f D Danube River annual flow series analysis, 191, 191f critical drought duration, 179, 179f maximum total deficit variation, 153, 154f Decile indicator (DI) Australian Drought Watch System, 66–68 classification, 67b, 68f domains, 66–68, 67f dry and wet period classification, 66–68, 67t variables, time scales, and concepts, 50, 51t Dependent Bernoulli trials critical drought duration, 157–160, 158f, 160t, 160–161f MATLAB software, 198–199 Dependent process maximum total deficit, 151–153 Desertification, 16, 18–19, 21 climate change impacts areal drought coverage, increases in, 343 biodiversity loss, 344 crop yields, decrease in, 343 drought, 346–348 environmental degradation, 343 evapotranspiration, increase in, 344 factors, 344 global climate change, 344–345 global warming, 343 groundwater level drops, 343 initial phases, 345–346 local hydrological cycle, 344–345 precipitation decrease, 343 rainfall amounts, decrease in, 343–344 regional climate change, 344–345 satellite images, study based on, 343, 346 solar radiation, 343 surface runoff, increase, 344 surface water extensions, decrease in, 343 temporal temperature increase, 343 464 Index Desertification (Continued) urban area expansion and sedimentation, 343 vegetation cover area reduction, 343–344 water resources depletion, 343 water scarcity, 344 drought, 16, 18–19, 21 Disasters definition of, 396 risk management average annual loss damages, 433t, 433b climate change, 328 communication, 429 definition, 397 exceedance probability (EP) curve, 434b, 435f expected opportunity loss, 432b, 433t integrated drought approach, 430–431 proactive drought mitigation approach, 431–432 probabilistic risk analysis, 430 reactive approach steps, 431 return period and expected loss, 432b risk analysis, 429 scenario analyses, 430–431 risk reduction, 397 Diyarbakir meteorology station location, 94, 122f monthly total rainfall, 122, 122f Double-logarithmic method, 246–254 Double ranking procedure, 211 Double ratio method (DRM) drawbacks, 449–450 frequency distribution daily cloud seeding data, 450 for desired period, 450 effectivity coefficient, 450–451 global deviation, 451–453 Istanbul City, Turkey (see Istanbul area meteorology station) net effect of seeding, 451–453 pitfalls, 451 total rainfall amount, 450–451 Israeli II project, analysis of, 449–450 DRM See Double ratio method (DRM) Drought, 22f agricultural drought (see Agricultural drought) in arid and semiarid regions, 15–18 and atmospheric composition atmospheric subsidence, 10–11 Drought (Continued) average temperature, CO2 concentrations, 8, 9f, 12–13 drought belts, 11–12 El Nin˜o episode, 13 greenhouse gas effect, 6–7, 12–13 humidity deficit, 8–10 oceanic circulations, 13 physical maximum precipitation, precipitation deficiency, small-scale hydrological cycle, 8, 9f storm production, energy for, 6–7 sun brightness, 8, 9f sun irradiation, 6–7 surface absolute temperature, 8, 9f temperature variations, 12–13, 13f triggering mechanism, 11 water moisture, 8, 10f causes of, 43–44 climate change (see Climate change) components, 22f conceptual droughts, 44–45 contingency plan, 397 definitions of, 4, 13–15, 45, 394–395 deserts, 20 drought event definition, drought index, definition of, dry lands, 20 environmental impacts, 20 famine, 21–22, 22f, 34–35 groundwater withdrawal, 401 in humid regions, 16 hydrologic drought (see Hydrologic droughts) impact assessment, 397 definition of, 397 desertification, 16, 18–19, 21 economic impacts, 8, 19 environmental impacts, 20 on food production, 418 on human activities and resources, 394 on nation security, 418 socioeconomic impacts, 16, 18–20 water shortage, 18, 35–37 mental exposure, 397 meteorological droughts (see Meteorological droughts) mitigation (see Drought mitigation) moisture deficiency, 21–22 operational droughts, 44–45 precipitation deficiency, 394–395 predrought mitigation strategies, 3–5 rainfall deficiency, 394 regional numerical definition, 207–208 Index Drought (Continued) secondary effects of, 3–4 socioeconomic drought, 22f, 24f, 33–34 temporal numerical definition, 110–115 water scarcity, reasons for, water stresses, 21 Drought analysis critical (see Critical drought duration) serially correlated time series, 174–179 Drought area coverage percentage, 282, 282f Drought coverage area, 208, 208f Drought duration, 129 Drought factor calculations, 114b Drought features software, 195–197 Drought indicators aridity indicator (AI), 74–76, 76f, 76b Budyko–Lettau drought ratio indicator (DRBL), 73 continuity curve (CC) method, 100–102, 101f, 102b crop moisture index (CMI), 50, 51t, 68–69 DI (see Decile indicator (DI)) environmental indicators, 44 Erinc¸ drought indicator (EDI), 69, 70t fuzzy logic approach, 96–100 K€oppen drought indicator, 70–71 MDI (see Martonne drought indicator (MDI)) PDSI (see Palmer drought severity index (PDSI)) PNI (see Percent of normal indicator (PNI)) simple drought indicators, 45–50 SPI (see Standardized precipitation index (SPI)) SWSI (see Surface water supply index (SWSI)) TDI (see Triple drought indicator (TDI)) and triggers percentiles for, 88–90 problems with, 86–88 water balance indicators, 69–70 water resource indicators, 44 Drought mitigation, 37–39 adaptation, definition of, 396 in agricultural sectors, 400 alert-based preparedness, 408 building and landscape standards, 407–408 capacity, definition of, 396 465 Drought mitigation (Continued) climate change plan convenient planting patterns, 403–404 public awareness on impacts, 394 and combat activities, 403–404, 408–409 community’s water sources, identification of, 407 country drought mitigation plans, 410, 413 crisis management activities, 401 definition of, 396 disaster risk management (see Disasters) drought duration-safety curves, 443–447, 444t, 445–447f, 446–447b drought hazard reduction measure, 412 drought progression identification, 407 drought-related alternative criteria, 402 early warning system, 394, 400 challenges, 404–405 components, 402 factors for recognizing drought, 405 precautions, 405–406 goals and objectives, 399–401 government policy, 395–396 hazard identification, 407 individual/joint drought mitigation plans, 413 international support, 419 land-use concerns, 407 long-term measures, 402–403 planning area, factual basis for, 406–407 plan preparation, 410–411 predrought preparedness, 401 preparedness, definition of, 398 priorities in, 406 proactive approach, 403 programmatic strategies, 413 public education programs, 408 reactive approaches, 413 regional drought mitigation plan, 410, 413 reservoir operation, resilience, 395–396 resilience, definition of, 398 response, definition of, 398 risk analysis management (see Risk) risk assessment, 395, 407 scientific activities, 393–394 short-term measures, 402–403 support-by awareness campaigns, 419 466 Index Drought mitigation (Continued) transformation, definition of, 399 vulnerability management (see Vulnerability) water conservation methods (see Water conservation) water scarcity, 409 weather modification (see Weather modification) Dry and wet spell calculations, 115b Dry and wet spell time percentage curves, 114f Dry spells, 112, 212, 276 Dry state, 112 Dry subareas, 208, 208f E Early warning system, 394, 400 challenges, 404–405 components, 402 factors for recognizing drought, 405 precautions, 405–406 El Nin˜o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, 13, 119–120 Empirical models, 120 Erinc¸ drought indicator (EDI), 69, 70t Exceedance probability (EP) curve, 434b, 435f F Famine, 21–22, 22f, 34–35 First-order Markov chain drought model, 128 autorun–autocorrelation parameter relationships, 134, 134f vs Bernoulli trials, 130 conditional probabilities, 131–133 critical drought duration, 140–147, 141–142f, 143b, 144t, 145–147f, 145b, 147b dependent process maximum total deficit, 151–153 drought duration, 135–140 drought length probability, 134, 135f identical and independent normal PDF, 131 maximum deficit summation, 147–151, 148b, 149t, 150–151f multidimensional probability function, 131 standard truncation level, 134 Flood analysis, 211, 214–215 G General circulation model (GCM), 12 Global circulation model (GCM) coupled GCMs, 349–350 Istanbul City, Turkey, 365–366 Global circulation model (GCM) (Continued) local (national) model, 353–354, 355f model developing structure, 353, 354f outputs, 352–353 Riyadh station, Arabian Peninsula (see Riyadh City, Arabian Peninsula) solutions, 348–352 Greenhouse gas effect, 6–7, 12–13, 332–333 Gross deficit, 112 Groundwater recharge climate change impacts aquifer regions, 377 arid and semiarid regions, 381, 386 artificial groundwater recharge, 386 climate variability, 377–379 coastal aquifers, 380 coastal saltwater intrusion, 381 in cold areas, 381 confined/shallow aquifers, 379–380 crop pattern changes, 382 evapotranspiration, increase in, 377, 382 fractured carbonate aquifer systems, 380, 382 freshwater resources, 379 global warming, 380 groundwater levels, decline in, 378, 381 groundwater quality, 379–381 groundwater salinization, 381 groundwater supplies, 378 human-induced climate change, 379 in humid regions, 381 increased flood events, 382 karstic aquifers, 382 in mountainous areas, 379 precipitation, decline in, 377, 379 sea level rise, 380, 382 soil organic carbon, changes in, 382 spring recharge, 382 summer and winter precipitation, 381 surficial aquifers, 379 temperature rise, 377–379 vegetation changes, 381–382 mitigation aquifer storage enrichment, 418 local and small dam construction, 402–403 rainwater and RH, 415–416, 421–422 Index H Hazard definition of, 397 drought mitigation (see Drought mitigation) Heterogeneous areal coverage probabilities, 315, 316f Heterogeneous regional binomial PDF calculation software, 318 Homogeneous PoPs, 314 Homogeneous random fields, 213 Hydrologic droughts, 22–24f agricultural production, impact on, 27 definition, 27 engineering solutions, 27 groundwater recharge, 30 hydroelectric power generation, impact on, 27 irrigation systems, effects on, 29 Istanbul City evaporation losses, 27–29, 28t long-distance water transportation, 29, 29f surface water reservoirs, operation rules, 27–29 water distribution systems, 27, 28f watershed characteristics, 27, 28t moisture deficits, 21–22 PHDI (see Palmer hydrological drought index (PHDI)) precipitation deficit uncertainty, 27 surface/subsurface dams, construction of, 29 water consumption, reduction of, 30 water demands, 26 water quantity and quality deteriorations, 27 Hydrometeorological time series, 111 simulation, 130 Hydrometeorological variables, 108–109, 111, 130–132, 147–148, 161–162, 164, 184–185 I Identically and independently distributed variable crossing probabilities, 179–183 software, 199–200 Independent Bernoulli trials critical drought duration, 154–157, 155f, 157b, 157f MATLAB software, 197–198 Intensity, 129 of dry spell, 113 of wet spell, 113 Isohyetal mapping method, 277 467 Istanbul area meteorology station climate change CMP graphs, 366–368, 367–368f extreme events, increase in, 363 GCM output rainfall scenario data, 365–366 hotter weather conditions, 363 Istanbul Water Consensus Local and Regional Authorities Declaration, 364–365 Markov stochastic process, 366 SDFs, 365–366, 366f SDM, 365–366 cloud seeding experiment, DRM confidence limits, 454–455, 455t daily rainfall stations, characteristics of, 453, 453t global deviations, 455–456, 455t natural deviation, subsample lengths, 454–455, 454t single value, 452 static cloud seeding, 452 target and control areas, 452–453, 453f hydrologic drought evaporation losses, 27–29, 28t long-distance water transportation, 29, 29f surface water reservoirs, operation rules, 27–29 water distribution systems, 27, 28f watershed characteristics, 27, 28t multiseasonal drought model areal coverage vs cumulative probability, 309–310, 309f location map, 306–307, 307f probability calculations, 307, 307t regional and temporal dry spell probabilities, 308, 308f representative subareas, 308, 308f subarea probabilities, 309–310, 309–310t wet coverage probabilities, 317, 317f J Jeddah station, Saudi Arabia average monthly temperature, 75, 75f location, 75 monthly aridity indexes, 76f, 76b K K€oppen drought indicator, 70–71 L Linear discriminant method, 210 Linear regression models, 120 468 Index Longest drought spell length, analytical derivation of, 174–179 Long-term drought forecasting, 119–120 Multivariate run drought models n-fold run statistics, 287–295 twofold run-lengths, 286–287, 287f M N Magnitude of dry spell, 113 of wet spell, 113 Martonne drought indicator (MDI), 71–72, 72t frequency classification, 73, 73t Thorthwaite classification, 72, 72t Maximum deficit intensity, 214–215, 223–224, 225f Maximum deficit summation first-order Markov process, 147–151, 148b, 149t, 150–151f Maximum dry amount, 113 Maximum likelihood principle, 79–80 Maximum surplus value, 113 Meteorological droughts, 23–24f components and definitions, 23, 24f durations, 25–26 impacts, 26 normal duration threshold values, 23, 23f PDSI (see Palmer drought severity index (PDSI)) rainfall deficits, 25 Minor droughts, 111, 111f Mitigation definition of, 398 drought (see Drought mitigation) Moisture anomaly index, 54–55 Monte Carlo simulations regional drought analysis, 211–212, 216 temporal drought analysis and modeling, 109–110, 160 Multiseasonal regional drought model, 278–280, 280f, 301–310 conditional probability, 279 heterogeneous probability occurrences, 301–307 Istanbul area meteorology station areal coverage vs cumulative probability, 309–310, 309f location map, 306–307, 307f probability calculations, 307, 307t regional and temporal dry spell probabilities, 308, 308f representative subareas, 308, 308f subarea probabilities, 309–310, 309–310t probability distribution functions, 280, 281f National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), 358 National rainfall index (NRI), 50 Natural disaster, 3–4, 3f Nearest neighbor analysis, 210 n-fold negative run-sums, 292–293 n-fold run-lengh drought models integration approach, 287–288 serially and mutually dependent, 295 serially and mutually independent, 288–293 serially dependent and mutually independent, 294–295 serially independent and mutually dependent, 293–294 Nonoverlapping consecutive half (NCH) periods, 257, 261–262, 263–267f, 268, 270f P Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), 50, 119–120, 128 benefits of, 58 CAFEC precipitation value, 54 climatological stage, 54 computational complexities, 52 drought categories and cumulative frequencies, 59–60, 59t drought severity, 55–56 hydrological stage, 52–53 limitations of, 58–59 moisture anomaly/Z-index, 54–55 moisture status categories, 56–57, 56t moisture supply, measurement of, 52 PHDI (see Palmer hydrological drought index (PHDI)) positive characteristics, 58–59 probability correspondences, 57–58, 57f variables, time scales, and concepts, 50, 51t Palmer hydrological drought index (PHDI), 49, 59–60, 59t, 99–100, 100f Partial duration series (PDS) model, 117, 128 Pattern recognition techniques, 128–129, 209–210 Percent of normal indicator (PNI) actual and normal precipitation, 62–63 benefits of, 63 Index Percent of normal indicator (PNI) (Continued) drawbacks of, 63–64 Istanbul monthly rainfalls, 63–64, 64f Seyhan River flow records, 64b, 65t, 66f variables, time scales, and concepts, 50, 51t Persistence regional drought model, 277–279, 300–301 heterogeneous probability occurrences, 300–301 Polya statistical method, 128 Polygon method, 277 PoP See Precipitation occurrence probability (PoP) Potential evaporation (PE), 52–54 Potential loss (PL), 52–54 Potential recharge (PR), 52–54 Potential runoff occurrence (PRO), 53–54 Power law procedure, regional drought analysis, 255–270 data preparation, 257–260 graphical analysis, 262–270 methodology, 261–262 Precipitation, 206, 277, 296–297 Precipitation occurrence probability (PoP), 311–312 Probabilistic analysis, 210 Probability derivation conceptual model, 312–313, 312f Q Quadrangle downscaling model (QDM) See Riyadh City, Arabian Peninsula R Rainfall anomaly ndex (RAI), 50, 51t Rainfall deficiency, 394 Rainwater harvesting, 400–401, 415–416, 420–422 Rainy vs nonrainy days, 110, 227–246 agricultural planning, 207 daily rainfall data statistics, 229–238 spatial variation, 242–246 temporal variation, 238–242 Random drought coverage areas, 212–215 Random fields (RFs), 212–213, 214f, 311–312 Reclamation drought index (RDI), 50 Regional climate model (RegCM), 348, 358 Regional drought analysis, 109, 277 analytical models, 215–222 areal drought features, 210–212 469 Regional drought analysis (Continued) areal joint drought PDF, 224–227 climate change impacts, 207 double-logarithmic method, 246–254 vs flood analysis, 211 joint drought occurrences, 210–211 linear discriminant method, 210 maximum deficit intensity, 223–224 Monte Carlo simulations, 211–212, 216 nearest neighbor analysis, 210 pattern recognition, 209–210 power law procedure, 255–270 data preparation, 257–260 graphical analysis, 262–270 methodology, 261–262 precipitation, 206, 212 rainy vs nonrainy days, 227–246 agricultural planning, 207 daily rainfall data statistics, 229–238 spatial variation, 242–246 temporal variation, 238–242 random drought coverage areas, 212–215 single-station investigations, 211 soil moisture content, 206, 212 spatial extensiveness, 206–207 statistical regression, 208–209 stochastic/probabilistic analysis, 210 vs temporal drought analysis, 112 theory of extremes, 211 time series analysis, 209 total areal deficit, 222–223, 223f water supply deficits, 206, 212 Regional water exchange, 285–286 Resilience climate change, 328 definition of, 398 reservoir operation, 395–396 RFs See Random fields (RFs) Rhine River critical drought duration, 153, 153f maximum total deficit variation, 153, 154f upcrossing numbers, 152–153, 152f Risk acceptable risk, 396 analysis, definition of, 398 definition, 398 management and adaptation, 424–425 cooperation between stakeholders, 424 cost-benefit analysis, 425 definition of, 399 drought hazard assessments, 427–429 470 Index Risk (Continued) drought risk predictions, 425–426 drought-triggering causes, identification of, 424 information collection, 424 national planning, 425 principles of, 426 social protection programs, 425 water stress, coping strategies, 425 probabilistic risk and safety calculations, 439b definition, 436 design variable magnitude, 438f, 438b first-order Markov process, 436–439 return period, 439–443, 440–442t simple risk calculation, 437b, 438f and vulnerability, 395, 423–424 Riyadh City, Arabian Peninsula annual average rainfall, 357 climate, 356–357 GCM nodal points, 356, 356f locations, 356, 356f monthly rainfall records, 356, 357f quadrangle downscaling model (QDM) NCAR-SRES-A2 scenario, 358–359, 360f observed annual rainfall amounts, 361–362, 361f RegCM, 358 scenario annual rainfall amounts, 361–362, 362f scenario monthly rainfall amounts, 360–361, 360–361f SDF value, 358–359, 359f total annual rainfall amount, 356 water harvesting, 362 Runoff harvesting (RH), 400–401, 415–416, 420–422 Runoff occurrence (RO), 53 Runs, definition of, 129–130 S Seasonal Bernoulli trials, critical drought duration, 164–174, 169b, 170t, 171b, 171f Sea surface temperature (SST), 119–120 Second-order Markov process, 161–164, 162f, 164b, 165f, 166t, 167f Severity of drought, 109, 127–128 Socioeconomic drought, 22f, 24f, 33–34 Soil moisture content, 206, 212 Soil moisture drought index (SMDI), 50, 51t Southern oscillation index (SOI), 119–120 Soybean drought index, 50 Space–time distribution, 311 Spatial dependence function (SDF), 353 Istanbul (Florya) station, 365–366, 366f Riyadh City, Arabian Peninsula, 358–359, 359f Spatiotemporal drought models areal precipitation coverage probability binomial PDF, 311 numerical application, 315–317 PoP, 311–312 probability derivation conceptual model, 312–313, 312f RF, 311–312 theoretical treatment, 312–315 multiseasonal regional model, 278–280, 280f conditional probability, 279 heterogeneous probability occurrences, 301–307 Istanbul area meteorology station, 306b, 307–308f multivariate runs n-fold run statistics, 287–295 twofold run-lengths, 286–287, 287f precipitation calculation methodologies, 277 regional persistence model, 277–279, 300–301 regional water exchange, 285–286 wet and dry period areal coverage probabilistic modeling heterogeneous subareal probabilities, 297–298, 298–299b homogeneous subareal probabilities, 298–299 occurrence patterns, 296–297, 297f Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), 353 Standardized precipitation index (SPI), 121 advantages of, 50, 77, 82–83 CDF, 79–82 classification of, 76–77, 77t, 83–84 cumulative probability values, 78, 79t fuzzy SPI categorizations, 99–100, 100f Gamma PDF, 78–80, 80f limitations, 84–86 precipitation records, 76–78 standard normal PDF, 77, 78f theoretical Gamma CDF, SPI CDF and time variation forty-eight-month observation, 87f Index Standardized precipitation index (SPI) (Continued) ® MATLAB program, 81–82 monthly observation, 81–82, 81f six-month observation, 84f three-month observation, 83f twenty-four-month observation, 86f variables, time scales, and concepts, 50, 51t Statistical downscaling model (SDM), 353, 365–366 Statistically homogeneous and isotropic random fields, 213 Statistical regression, 208–209 Statistical theory of runs, 129–130 Stochastic/probabilistic analysis, 210 Streamflow deficits, 116 Surface water supply index (SWSI), 50 benefits, 61–62 drought categories, 61, 61t limitations, 62 mountain water dependent, 60–62 rainfall, runoff, and reservoir storage, 60–61 snow accumulation, 60–62 variables, time scales, and concepts, 51t T Teleconnections, 120 Temporal drought analysis annual flow totals conditional expectation, 187 Danube River annual flow series, 191, 191f deficit PDF calculations, 188b independent processes, 189–195 logarithmic normally distributed processes, 192–195 marginal PDF, 186 normally distributed independent processes, 190–192 symmetrical PDF, 185–186 unconditional expectation, 187–188 water deficit summation variance, 188 characteristics, 129 critical drought duration dependent Bernoulli trials, 157–160, 158f, 160t, 160–161f independent Bernoulli trials, 154–157, 155f, 157b, 157f seasonal Bernoulli trials, 164–174, 169b, 170t, 171b, 171f second-order Markov process, 161–164, 162f, 164b, 165f, 166t, 167f 471 Temporal drought analysis (Continued) drawback, 112 first-order Markov process autorun–autocorrelation parameter relationships, 134, 134f vs Bernoulli trials, 130 conditional probabilities, 131–133 critical drought duration, 140–147, 141–142f, 143b, 144t, 145–147f, 145b, 147b dependent process maximum total deficit, 151–153 drought duration, 135–140 drought length probability, 134, 135f identical and independent normal PDF, 131 maximum deficit summation, 147–151, 148b, 149t, 150–151f multidimensional probability function, 131 standard truncation level, 134 forecasting, 119–129 models agricultural drought, 128 binomial model, 128 early models, 127 Polya statistical method, 128 reservoir design, 127 severity aspect, 127–128 Monte Carlo simulation studies, 109–110, 160 vs regional drought analysis, 112 severity, 109, 127–128 statistical analysis approach, 109 threshold level method AMS model, 117–118, 118t annual low flows vs Gamma PDF, 119, 119f crossing theory, 116–117 monthly window, 117b normal period, 115–116 PDS model, 117 selection, 116–117 variable threshold, 117 Theory of extremes, 211 Thorthwaite classification, 72, 72t Threshold level method AMS model, 117–118, 118t annual low flows vs Gamma PDF, 119, 119f crossing theory, 116–117 monthly window, 117b normal period, 115–116 PDS model, 117 selection, 116–117 variable threshold, 117 472 Index Time series analysis models regional drought analysis, 209 temporal drought analysis, 120 Total areal deficit definition, 112 regional drought analysis, 214–215, 222–223, 223f MATLAB program, 223, 271 Triple drought indicator (TDI) Adana station, 91f, 92t, 94, 94f Ankara station, 91f, 92t, 93, 93f benefits, 90–91 Diyarbakir station, 91f, 92t, 94, 95f Istanbul station, 91–92f, 92–93, 92t Izmir station, 91f, 92t, 96, 97f Trabzon station, 91f, 92t, 94–95, 95f Van station, 91f, 92t, 95–96, 96f Twofold run-length drought models, 286–287, 287f U Un-identically and independently distributed variables crossing probabilities, 184–185 MATLAB software, 200–201 V Variance of drought hit area, 283, 284f Vulnerability, 429–430 agricultural sector, reduction in, 419 assessment, 399 crop types, 414–415 definition of, 399 exposure, climate change impacts, 414, 416–417 public education, 400 risk reduction, 416 safe yield management, 422–423 strategic preparedness, 415 water resources management additional water supply sources development, 418 components, 415 engineering structures and management, 419–420 government intervention, 417, 418 long-term water supply plans, 417 public water supply storage, 415–416 rainwater and RH, groundwater recharge, 415–416, 418, 420–422 W Water audits, 408 Water availability models, 121 Water balance indicators, 69–70 Water conservation, 413 human behavior-dependent activities, 400–401 large-scale technologies, 414 technological aids, 400–401 water audits, 408 water consumption reductions, 400 water demand management, 412 water restrictions, 400–401 water reuse, 400–401 water shortage reduction activities, 411–412 water supply management, 412, 414 in wet periods, 414 Water harvesting (WH), 362, 420–422 Water resources system analysis annual flow totals, 185–195 drought definition, 211 Water supply deficits, 206, 212 Weather modification DRM (see Double ratio method (DRM)) dynamic seeding, 448 external effects, statistical analysis, 448 for rainfall augmentation, 447–448 randomized seeding technique, 449 regression technique drawbacks of, 448–449 target and control area rainfall amounts, 448, 449f research type cloud seeding operations, 447–448 static seeding, 448 Weighted averaged polygon method, 277 Western Canada Wheat Yield Model, 208–209 Wet and dry period areal coverage probabilistic modeling heterogeneous subareal probabilities, 297–298, 298–299b homogeneous subareal probabilities, 298–299 multiseasonal model (see Multiseasonal regional drought model) occurrence patterns, 296–297, 297f regional persistence model, 300–301 Wet spells, 112, 212, 276 Wet state, 112 WH See Water harvesting (WH) Z Z-index, 54–55 ... available and the political will is effective (“see chapters: Climate Change, Droughts, and Water Resources; Drought Hazard Mitigation and Risk”) 1.8 DROUGHT TYPES AND THEIR IMPACTS Drought, as... security Water resources have been and still are under internal and external pressures The foundation of any civilization Applied Drought Modeling, Prediction, and Mitigation © 2015 Elsevier Inc... statistics, and at-large stochastic approaches (“see chapters: Temporal Drought Analysis and Modeling; Regional Drought Analysis and Modeling; Spatiotemporal Drought Analysis and Modeling”) and, most