Heinberg peak everything; waking up to the century of declines (2010)

Table of Contents Praise Title Page Join the Conversation Acknowledgements Foreword Preface Introduction ON TECHNOLOGY, AGRICULTURE, AND THE ARTS Chapter - Tools with a Life of Their Own Classy Tools It’s the Energy, Silly Peak Oil and the Limits of Technology Staring at Techno-Collapse Chapter - Fifty Million Farmers Intensifying Food Production The 21 Century: De-Industrialization Examples and Strategies The Key: More Farmers! If We Do This Well Chapter - (post-) Hydrocarbon Aesthetics Designing for the Tragic Interlude of Cheap Abundance Hydrocarbon Style: Big, Fast, and Ugly Oh, To Be Hip Again Manifesto for a Post-Carbon Aesthetic ON NATURE’S LIMITS AND THE HUMAN CONDITION Chapter - Five Axioms of Sustainability History and Background Five Axioms Evaluation Chapter - Parrots and Peoples Chapter - Population, Resources, and Human Idealism THE END OF ONE ERA, THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER Chapter - The Psychology of Peak Oil and Climate Change Explaining Our Incomprehension Acceptance and Beyond: Peak Oil Grief Collective PTSD A Model for Explanation and Treatment: Addiction and Dependency Proactive Application: Social Marketing Chapter - Bridging Peak Oil and Climate Change Activism Differing Perspectives Differing Recommendations Supply Side, Demand Side Common Ground Chapter - Boomers’ Last Chance? What Made the “Greatest Generation” Great The “Me” Generation The Boomers’ Defining Moments The Path Taken Another Fork in the Road Chapter 10 - A Letter From the Future Chapter 11 - Talking Ourselves to Extinction Language and Religion Grammar, Reason, Logic, and Evidence Language and the Ecological Dilemma Can Language Help Us Now? Resources for Action Notes Index About the Author Copyright Page Praise for PEAK EVERYTHING Richard Heinberg brings important news that few will want to hear — the limits we’ve been hearing about for four decades are really upon us He also brings a pretty good hint of the directions we might take to escape the tightening knot An important book from an important thinker — Bill McKibben, author of Deep Economy: the Wealth of Communities and the Durable Future If humans survive the ongoing catastrophe that is this culture, it will be in great measure due to people like Richard Heinberg, who have the courage to directly face our predicament and the honesty to clearly yet gently describe our alternatives Heinberg’s work is always both inspirational and educational, and Peak Everything is no exception This book should be required reading at all high schools and colleges, for all activists, and for all policy-makers — Derrick Jensen, author of Endgame There are few harder questions than the ones Richard Heinberg takes on in Peak Everything Fortunately, he addresses them with his customary fearlessness, intellectual rigor and good sense More than anyone else I’ve encountered, Heinberg has an answer to the most fundamental question of all; “How shall we go on from here.” Reading this, I can believe there is hope that we can — Sharon Astyk, author of Depletion and Abundance: Life on the New Home Front and Independence Days: A Guide to Sustainable Food Storage and Preservation Once again — and with eyes as peeled to the task as a Buddha’s — Richard Heinberg jumps into the cauldron of global resource de- cline This is his most integrated report from the social, economic, and ecological contraction now unfolding, which he delivers with mindfulness, compassion, and a view to humanity’s strengths — Chellis Glendinning, author of My Name Is Chellis and I’m in Recovery from Western Civilization Peak Oil is a great threat to our way of life, and Richard Heinberg is one of the world’s best-known writers and analysts of the subject In Peak Everything, Heinberg gives us a series of provocative essays about the profound individual and global implications of Peak Oil — Albert A Bartlett, Professor Emeritus of Physics, University of Colorado at Boulder With Peak Everything, Richard Heinberg is once again on the cutting edge We are all indebted to him for helping us understand our 21st cenury world — Lester R Brown, President, Earth Policy Institute, and author of Plan B 2.0: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble Join the Conversation Visit our online book club at www.newsociety.com to share your thoughts about Peak Everything Exchange ideas with other readers, post questions for the author, respond to one of the sample questions or start your own discussion topics See you there! Acknowledgments It would be impossible to thank everyone who has helped with this book in some way The chapters herein developed over many months, during which I was traveling a great deal and speaking to audiences large and small about the problem of oil depletion, its likely consequences, and what we can to wean our societies from our collective addiction to fossil fuels I met hundreds of people during these travels whose words and pioneering actions are reflected in these pages Once again, I must acknowledge an enormous debt of gratitude to my wife Janet Barocco, who supports and balances me in so many ways as I pursue the rather lopsided life of a writer-lecturer This is the fourth book project on which I have had the pleasure of working with Chris and Judith Plant of New Society Publishers A note of appreciation must also go to Ingrid Witvoet, who shepherded the book through the production process, and Murray Reiss, who copy-edited the manuscript My thanks to Jennifer Bresee for research assistance, and to Susan Williamson for general assistance As in the past, my students and co-faculty at New College deserve mention for their ongoing support, as the subscribers to my monthly MuseLetter Finally, I would like to voice both appreciation and thanks to Julian Darley and Celine RichDarley — founders of Post Carbon Institute, and catalysts in the global response to the twin crises of fossil fuels (climate change and resource depletion) Foreword By James Howard Kunstler Back in 2005, Richard Heinberg and I both published books on peak oil and its implications for everyday life in technologically “advanced” societies We saw the general situation very similarly but expressed our views of it differently I hugely admired Richard’s version of the story, The Party’s Over, especially the trenchant title He brought tremendous kinetic clarity to a set of terrifying issues that the best technical guys had previously only been able to present in mind-numbing charts and sludge-like prose I think both of us set out to shock the general reading public with news that had left us both, personally, deeply shocked as the implications revealed themselves and we realized that the age of Cruisin’ for Burgers was coming to an end Mostly since then, the public has proved to be unshockable by the news that we’re entering a historical period of hardship, that many of the familiar touchstones of daily life — from square meals to daily commutes to the simple confidence that the lights will go on when you flick a switch — will not be with us much longer I think there was an assumption by Richard and myself and lots of other people thoughtfully observing the scene by then, that our society would take the message, spread it virally (and rapidly!), and that our leaders in business, politics, science, and the media would marshal our people’s best efforts to meet these challenges — at least to formulate some kind of consensus for action No such thing happened Some people on the margins took note, but the general public got distracted and deluded We all know how denial works at the macro level now Not only was the peak oil predicament broadly misunderstood (as Richard points out, it was never just about running out of oil), but a mini-industry of delusion generators sprouted up to refute peak oil, folks like the espousers of so-called “abiotic oil” theory — the idea that the earth has a creamy nougat center of oil that continuously refills producing oil fields (for which there is no evidence whatsoever, by the way) Worse, the organs of legitimate governance, such as the US Department of Energy, refused to even acknowledge that a) we had a big problem with future oil supplies, and not too far out, either, and b) it had awful implications For most of the first decade of this century, the federal government was run by the George W Bush gang, and it was understood that they operated on a strange ethos of faith-based-Babbittry in which the highest-and-best version of civilization was thought to be credit-card consumerism accessorized by endless happy motoring (all lavishly garnished with Christian prayer) In other words, they had a deep vested interest in keeping all the usual rackets running: suburbia, derivatives-trading, highwaybuilding, strip-mining… Fittingly, this operating system foundered utterly at the climax of the 2008 presidential election That’s when the Frankenstein monster of innovative finance keeled over on Wall Street from an infarction of its mutant heart (the engine of debt), taking down the Lehman Brothers investment bank, the AIG insurance company (insurers to the alternative universe of fraudulent bond derivatives), the two notorious government sponsored enterprises behind the housing bubble, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and threatening more generally to absolutely wreck the entire global financial system What an autumn that was! Trillions of dollars were dropped by helicopters Chapter Energy Watch Group Coal: Resources and Future Production energy watchgroup.org/files/Coalreport.pdf (cited June 11, 2007) David Fleming The Lean Guide to Nuclear Energy: A Life-Cycle in Trouble The Lean Economy Connection, 2006 See also: Energy Watch Group Uranium Resources and Nuclear Energy energiekrise.de/news/docs/specials2006/REO-Uranium_5-12-2006pdf (Cited June 12, 2007) Index A adaptation advertising agriculture: after techno-collapse; Cuba’s Special Period; and environmental damage; factors leading to famine; genetic engineering of new crops; intensification through history; level of land cultivation; and numbers of farmers; and Peak Oil; plan for de-industrialization; in pre-history; in US; and use of fossil fuels; world grain production airplanes All Consuming Images: On the Politics of Style in Contemporary Culture (Ewen) alternative energy sources: in agriculture; as savior after Peak Oil; as substitutes for non-renewable resources Aptekar, Lewis architecture Art Deco Art Nouveau arts, preservation of Arts and Crafts movement Ashbee R Asimov, Isaac B Baby Boom generation: defining moments; development; disillusionment; future; politics; wastefulness banking Bartlett, Albert A Behrens, Peter Bellamy, Edward Bernays, Edward biofuels biointensive farming Bittner, Mark Blood and Oil (Klare) boom-and-bust cycles brain, development of Braudel, Fernand Brokaw, Tom Brundtland Report Burne-Jones, Edward Bush, George H.W Bush, George W business economics C Calkins, E E Campbell J Campbell, Joseph carbon dioxide emissions see also greenhouse gas emissions carbon trading Carlowitz, Hanns Carl von cars Carter, Jimmy “Century of Self ” (Curtis) China CIA (Central Intelligence Agency) cities civilization (see also industrialization): basis of; development; and emergent phenomena, garbage from; v wild societies climate Climate Change (see also psychology of peak oil/climate change; techno-collapse): after technocollapse; benefits of cooperation with Peak Oil; from burning fossil fuels (see also greenhouse gas emissions); concerted campaign for; conflict with Peak Oil; consequences of; experts in; peak levels of; possible strategies for; psychological theories on; scientific agreement on; strategies for psychologically coping with Clinton, Bill coal: “clean,” future role; and greenhouse gases; production levels Cold War The Collapse of Complex Societies (Tainter) Colodzin, Benjamin community building computers conures Cornwall, England corporations Crane, Walter CTL (coal-to-liquids) Cuba’s Special Period culture, preservation of see also arts, preservation of currency collapse Curtis, Adam D Damasio, Antonio democracy design: industrial; and industrialized society; in a techno-collapsed world developing countries Diamond, Jared Diamond, Stanley dignity E Earth Day economic inequality economics: after techno-collapse; free market; of future agriculture; and idea of steady growth- and industrial revolution education egalitarianism Ehrlich, Paul emergent phenomena energy see also alternative energy sources; fossil fuels; non-renewable resources Energy and Equity (Illich) environmental damage (see also Climate Change): after techno-collapse; from agriculture; by invasive species; and language barrier environmental movement EROEI (energy returned on energy invested) ethanol Ewen, Stuart ExxonMobil F famine: in early history; prediction of feedback loops, reinforcing fish harvests food production (see also agriculture): after techno-collapse; as key to human society; and Malthus; in pre-history; and rationing; in US; and use of fossil fuels forests fossil fuels (see also coal; natural gas; oil; tar sands): and agriculture; and concentrations of greenhouse gases (see also greenhouse gas emissions); consequences of continuing use of; earliest technology run on; and feedback loops; future of; and hippie aesthetic- and industrial revolution; and level of happiness; modern problems connected to; and modern technology; predictions on how long they will last; scenarios of running out of; strategies for dealing with depletion of; substitutes for Fostering Sustainable Behavior (MacKenzie-Mohr and Smith) France Frank, Justin Freud, Sigmund G Gage, Phineas GDP (Gross Domestic Product) generation gap genetic engineering genetically modified crops Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) Gini index Glendinning, Chellis global warming see also Climate Change Gore, Al government: after techno-collapse; and beginnings of political organization; and democracy; environmental legislation; and language; reaction to disaster; reaction to Peak Oil; and sustainability measures GPI (Genuine Progress Indicator) grain Great Britain The Greatest Generation (Brokaw) greenhouse gas emissions: from coal; concentrations by source; from fossil fuels; how much they need to be reduced; peak levels; strategies for reducing Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth v sustainability H Haber-Bosch process Hansen, James happiness Harris, Marvin Hawkins, Louis W Heather, Peter heavy oil Herman, Judith hippies Hirsch, Robert Holmgren, David Hopkins, Rob horticulture Hubbard, Elbert Hubbert, M King Huebner, Jonathan human rights Human Scale (Sale) hydrocarbons see fossil fuels I ideological changes: away from fossil fuels; away from industrialization; from perpetual growth to sustainability; role of language in Illich, Ivan An Inconvenient Truth (Gore) Indian Line Farm industrial design industrialization (see also fossil fuels; techno-collapse): adapted to disasters; and crafts; history of; how it’s changed humans; and industrial revolution; modern criticism of; plan for de-industrialization; as savior; weeding ourselves off inventions Iroquois Irving, Judy J Jackson, Wes Jeavons, John K Kelly, R C Klare, Michael Kübler-Ross, Elisabeth L labor Lahontan, Baron de The Land Institute land use language: and belief in symbols; development; and economics; and environmental damage; and politics; and reason; and religion; role in civilization; and societal change leisure time Lerro, Bruce lifestyle choices The Limits to Growth (Club of Rome) local economies logic Looking Backward: 2000-1887 (Bellamy) love M MacKenzie-Mohr, Doug Macy, Joanna magical thinking Malthus, Thomas Mandil, Claude marketing see also advertising McLuckie, Benjamin media Mexico Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Mollison, Bill money trading morality Morris, William Moyers, Bill Müller, Max Mumford, Lewis The Myth of the Machine (Mumford) mythology N natural gas The Natural Step nature Nelson, Gaylord Nixon, Richard non-renewable resources see also fossil fuels nuclear power O oil (see also Peak Oil): as bulwark of US economy; level of dependency on; production levels; substitutes for; sustainability; and wars Oil Depletion Protocol oil shale Oman Ornstein, Robert P parrots Pauli, Wolfgang Peak Oil (see also psychology of peak oil/climate change; techno-collapse): benefits of cooperation with Climate Change; concerted campaign for; conflict with Climate Change; definition; depletionists’ and their views; effects of; experts in; possible strategies for; predictions of when it will happen; psychological theories on; strategies for psychologically coping with; in US Pepperberg, Irene permaculture petrochemicals politics (see also government): after techno-collapse; beginnings of political organization; in a de- industrialized society; and greenhouse gas emissions; and the industrial revolution; and population explosion; and quasi-religious ideologies; role in changing society; and success of technology; and sustainability measures; in US pollution Poon, Wing-Chi population: and A Bartlett and I Asimov; level through history; methods of controlling; and politics; and sustainability; and T Malthus; and W Stanton post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) poverty see also economic inequality Prince, Samuel progress as an idea psychological maturity psychology of peak oil/climate change: described as addiction and dependency; and mass behavior change; and post-traumatic stress disorder; and response to crisis; treated like grief R The Rapid Growth of Human Populations, 1750-2000 (Stanton) Rayner, Lisa Reagan, Ronald The Real Work (Snyder) Rees, William religion: after techno-collapse; development; in politics renewable resources see also alternative energy sources Robèrt, Karl-Henrik Rockefeller, John D Rolfe, Douglas Roosevelt, Eleanor Roycrofters Ruskin, John Russia (Soviet Union) S Sale, Kirkpatrick Sasol Saving Private Ryan science, preservation of scientific method, development of September 11th, 2001 sequestration Smith, William Snyder, Gary social marketing social welfare societal change (see also ideological changes; techno-collapse): and language; and politics solar power Soviet Union specialization species extinction spirituality see also religion Stanton, William starlings Stephenson, George Strauss, Leo sustainability: axioms of; definition of; history of concept; and politics; v growth symbolism T Tainter, Joseph tar sands techno-collapse: aesthetic of; anger and violence during- and communications; description of; and environment; and government; J Tainter’s view of; and politics; severity of; suggestions for survival technology see industrialization; techno-collapse Terkel, Studs U United States: agriculture; Baby Boom generation; energy production; envir¶nmental movement; food production; and Gross Domestic Product; hours spent on the job in; oil as bulwark of economy; politics uranium Urinetown V Victory Gardens Vietnam War violence see also war W war: after techno-collapse; in civilized society; and connection to fossil fuels; Vietnam; World War II, water: after techno-collapse; arctic ice melt; consumption levels; and glacier retreat; scarcity of fresh Weber, Max The Wild Parrots of Telegraph Hill (Bittner) women World War II Wright, Frank Lloyd Z Zerzan, John About the Author RICHARD HEINBERG is the author of seven previous books including The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies (New Society, 2003, 2005), Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World (New Society, 2004), and The Oil Depletion Protocol (New Society, 2006) He is an educator, editor, lecturer, a Core Faculty member of New College of California’s Campus for Sustainable Living, and a Fellow of the Post Carbon Institute He is widely regarded as one of the world’s foremost Peak Oil educators He has also authored scores of essays and articles, which have appeared in journals such as The American Prospect, Quarterly Review, Public Policy Research, Resurgence, The Futurist, European Business Review, Earth Island Journal; and on web sites such as GlobalPublicMedia.com, Alternet.org, EnergyBulletin.net, ProjectCensored.com, and Counterpunch.com In 2005, Powerdown received Fore Word magazine’s Bronze Environmental Award In 2007, The Oil Depletion Protocol won ForeWord’s Gold Environmental Award as well as the Independent Publishers Book of the Year (IPPY) Bronze Award in the category of Current Events His books have been translated into eight languages Since 2002, he has given over three hundred lectures on oil depletion (“Peak Oil”) to a wide variety of audiences, including members of the European Parliament He is the recipient of the M King Hubbert Award for Excellence in Energy Education (2006) Heinberg appears prominently in the documentary films 11th Hour (produced and narrated by Leonardo diCaprio, 2007); Asleep in America (2007); The History Channel’s Megadisasters series, episode on Peak Oil (2007); What a Way to Go: Life at the End of Empire (2007); Escape from Suburbia (2007); Crude Impact (2006); the nationally televised PBS documentary Ripe for Change (2006); The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil (2006); and The End of Suburbia (2004) He is currently working with Discovery Channel on the upcoming sustainability series, Final Hour For more information on Richard and his current work, go to www.richardheinberg.com CATALOGING IN PUBLICATION DATA: A catalog record for this publication is available from the National Library of Canada Copyright © 2010 by Richard Heinberg All rights reserved Inquiries regarding requests to reprint all or part of Peak Everything should be addressed to New Society Publishers at the address below To order directly from the publishers, please call toll-free (North America) 1-800-567-6772, or order online at www.newsociety.com Any other inquiries can be directed by mail to: New Society Publishers P.O Box 189, Gabriola Island, BC VoR 1Xo, Canada (250) 247-9737 Heinberg, Richard Peak everything : waking up to the century of declines/Richard Heinberg Includes bibliographical references and index eISBN : 978-1-550-92469-5 Human ecology Social history 21st century Sustainable agriculture Energy conservation I Title GF41.H.2 C2010-901621-1 ... was coming to an end Mostly since then, the public has proved to be unshockable by the news that we’re entering a historical period of hardship, that many of the familiar touchstones of daily life... planet If the increased availability of cheap energy has historically enabled unprecedented growth in the extraction rates of other resources, then the coincidence of Peak Oil with the peaking... summon up This is one of the reasons I turned to fiction after publishing The Long Emergency, with the novel World Made By Hand and, in the fall of 2010, its sequel, The Witch of Hebron I wanted to