MacroEcomonics principles, application, and tools 7th edition by sullivan chapter 12

C H A P T E R 12 Investment and Financial Markets Copyright © 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall All rights reserved Copyright © 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall All rights reserved 12-1 CHAPTER Investment and Financial Markets 12 The housing market is a perfect example of the close links between investment and finance PREPARED BY Copyright © 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall All rights reserved Brock Williams C H A P T E R 12 Investment and Financial Markets APPLYING THE CONCEPTS How fluctuations in energy prices affect investment decisions by firms? Energy Price Uncertainty Reduces Investment Spending How can understanding the concept of present value help a lucky lottery winner? Options for a Lottery Winner Why did many homeowners in 2010 owe more to banks than their home was worth? Underwater Homes: Bets Gone Wrong How have recent financial innovations created new risks for the economy? Securitization: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Copyright © 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall All rights reserved 12-3 C H A P T E R 12 Investment and Financial Markets 12.1 AN INVESTMENT: A PLUNGE INTO THE UNKNOWN • accelerator theory The theory of investment that says that current investment spending depends positively on the expected future growth of real GDP  FIGURE 12.1 Investment Spending as a Share of U.S GDP, 1970–2009 The share of investment as a component of GDP ranged from a low of about 10 percent in 1975 to a high of over 18 percent in 2000 The shaded areas represent U.S recessions Copyright © 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall All rights reserved 12-4 C H A P T E R 12 Investment and Financial Markets 12.1 AN INVESTMENT: A PLUNGE INTO THE UNKNOWN (cont’d) • procyclical Moving in the same direction as real GDP • multiplier-accelerator model A model in which a downturn in real GDP leads to a sharp fall in investment, which triggers further reductions in GDP through the multiplier Copyright © 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall All rights reserved 12-5 C H A P T E R 12 Investment and Financial Markets APPLICATION ENERGY PRICE UNCERTAINTY REDUCES INVESTMENT SPENDING APPLYING THE CONCEPTS #1: How fluctuations in energy prices affect investment decisions by firms? One important way volatility of oil prices can hurt the economy is by creating uncertainty for firms making investment decisions Consider whether a firm should invest in an energy-saving technology for a new plant: • If energy prices remain high, it may be profitable to invest in energy-saving technology • If prices fall, these investments would be unwise • If future oil prices are uncertain, a firm may simply delay building the plant until the path of oil prices are clear When firms are faced with an increasingly uncertain future, they will delay their investment decisions until the uncertainty is resolved Copyright © 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall All rights reserved 12-6 C H A P T E R 12 Investment and Financial Markets 12.2 EVALUATING THE FUTURE Understanding Present Value PRESENT VALUE AND INTEREST RATES • present value The maximum amount a person is willing to pay today to receive a payment in the future K present value = (1 + i )t PRINCIPLE OF OPPORTUNITY COST The opportunity cost of something is what you sacrifice to get it The present value—the value today—of a given payment in the future is the maximum amount a person is willing to pay today for that payment As the interest rate increases, the opportunity cost of your funds also increases, so the present value of a given payment in the future falls In other words, you need less money today to get to your future “money goal.” As the interest rate decreases, the opportunity cost of your funds also decreases, so the present value of a given payment in the future rises In other words, you need more money today to get to your money goal Copyright © 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall All rights reserved 12-7 C H A P T E R 12 Investment and Financial Markets APPLICATION OPTIONS FOR A LOTTERY WINNER APPLYING THE CONCEPTS #2: How can understanding the concept of present value help a lucky lottery winner? The lucky winner of a lottery was given an option: • Receive $1 million a year for 20 years • Receive $10 million today Why would anyone take the $10 million today? To determine which payment option is best, our lottery winner would first need to: • Calculate the present value of $1 million for each of the 20 years • Add up the result • Compare it to the $10 million being offered to her today Example: With an percent interest rate, the present value of an annual payment of $1 million every year for 20 years is $9.8 million Best option: If interest rates exceed percent, it is better to take the $10 million dollars Copyright © 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall All rights reserved 12-8 C H A P T E R 12 Investment and Financial Markets 12.2 EVALUATING THE FUTURE (cont’d) Real and Nominal Interest Rates REAL-NOMINAL PRINCIPLE What matters to people is the real value of money or income—the purchasing power—not the face value of money • nominal interest rate Interest rates quoted in the market • real interest rate The nominal interest rate minus the inflation rate real rate = Copyright â 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall All rights reserved 12-9 C H A P T E R 12 Investment and Financial Markets 12.2 EVALUATING THE FUTURE (cont’d) • There are different types of interest investments • Corporate bonds are considered more risky than federal government bonds, so pay a higher interest rate • Long term investments are more risky than short term investments, so again pay a higher interest rate  FIGURE 12.2 Interest Rates on Corporate and Government Investments, 2002–2008 Copyright © 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall All rights reserved 12-10 C H A P T E R 12 Investment and Financial Markets 12.3 UNDERSTANDING INVESTMENT DECISIONS  FIGURE 12.3 The Relationship between Real Interest Rates and Investment Spending As the real interest rate declines, investment spending in the economy increases • neoclassical theory of investment A theory of investment that says both real interest rates and taxes are important determinants of investment Copyright © 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall All rights reserved 12-11 C H A P T E R 12 Investment and Financial Markets 12.3 UNDERSTANDING INVESTMENT DECISIONS (cont’d) Investment and the Stock Market • retained earnings Corporate earnings that are not paid out as dividends to their owners • corporate bond A bond sold by a corporation to the public in order to borrow money • Q-theory of investment The theory of investment that links investment spending to stock prices price of a stock = present value of expected future dividend payments Copyright © 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall All rights reserved 12-12 C H A P T E R 12 Investment and Financial Markets 12.3 UNDERSTANDING INVESTMENT DECISIONS (cont’d)  FIGURE 12.4 The Stock Market and Investment Levels, 1997–2003 Both the stock market and investment spending rose sharply from 1997, peaking in mid-2000 Copyright © 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall All rights reserved 12-13 C H A P T E R 12 Investment and Financial Markets 12.4 HOW FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES FACILITATE INVESTMENT • liquid Easily convertible into money on short notice  FIGURE 12.5 Savers and Investors Copyright © 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall All rights reserved 12-14 C H A P T E R 12 Investment and Financial Markets HOW FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES FACILITATE INVESTMENT (cont’d) 12.4 • financial intermediaries Organizations that receive funds from savers and channel them to investors  FIGURE 12.6 Financial Intermediaries Copyright © 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall All rights reserved 12-15 C H A P T E R 12 Investment and Financial Markets APPLICATION UNDERWATER HOMES: BETS GONE WRONG APPLYING THE CONCEPTS #3: Why Did Many Homeowners in 2010 Owe More to Banks Than Their Home Was Worth? •In early 2010 one quarter of all U.S homes were “underwater”, that is, the homeowners owed more than their home was worth •Homes are highly leveraged; even if you put down 10 percent, that leaves 90 percent borrowed •If the home value falls 20 percent, the homeowner is 10 percent underwater In the Las Vegas area, approximately 70 percent of all homes were underwater Copyright © 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall All rights reserved 12-16 C H A P T E R 12 Investment and Financial Markets HOW FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES FACILITATE INVESTMENT (cont’d) 12.4 • securitization The practice of purchasing loans, re-packaging them, and selling them to the financial markets • leverage Using borrowed funds to purchase assets Copyright © 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall All rights reserved 12-17 C H A P T E R 12 Investment and Financial Markets HOW FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES FACILITATE INVESTMENT (cont’d) 12.4 When Financial Intermediaries Malfunction • bank run Panicky investors simultaneously trying to withdraw their funds from a bank they believe may fail • deposit insurance Federal government insurance on deposits in banks and savings and loans Copyright © 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall All rights reserved 12-18 C H A P T E R 12 Investment and Financial Markets APPLICATION SECURITIZATION: THE GOOD, THE BAD, AND THE UGLY APPLYING THE CONCEPTS #4: How have recent financial innovations created new risks for the economy? •As securitization developed, it allowed financial intermediaries to provide new funds for borrowers to enter the housing market •As the housing boom began in 2002, lenders and home purchasers began to take increasing risks Lenders made “subprime” loans to borrowers with limited ability to actually repay their mortgages •Some households were willing to take on considerable debt because they were confident they could make money in a rising housing market Lenders securitized the subprime loans and financial firms offered exotic investment securities to investors based on these loans Many financial institutions purchased these securities without really knowing what was inside them •When the housing boom stopped and borrowers stopped making payments on subprime loans, it created panic in the financial market Effectively, through securitization the damage from the subprime loans spread to the entire financial market, causing a major crisis Copyright © 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall All rights reserved 12-19 C H A P T E R 12 Investment and Financial Markets KEY TERMS accelerator theory neoclassical theory of investment bank run nominal interest rate corporate bond present value deposit insurance procyclical expected real interest rate Q-theory of investment financial intermediaries real interest rate leverage retained earnings liquid securitization multiplier-accelerator model Copyright © 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall All rights reserved 12-20 ... Copyright © 2 012 Pearson Prentice Hall All rights reserved 12- 12 C H A P T E R 12 Investment and Financial Markets 12. 3 UNDERSTANDING INVESTMENT DECISIONS (cont’d)  FIGURE 12. 4 The Stock Market and Investment... FIGURE 12. 2 Interest Rates on Corporate and Government Investments, 2002–2008 Copyright © 2 012 Pearson Prentice Hall All rights reserved 12- 10 C H A P T E R 12 Investment and Financial Markets 12. 3... rates and taxes are important determinants of investment Copyright © 2 012 Pearson Prentice Hall All rights reserved 12- 11 C H A P T E R 12 Investment and Financial Markets 12. 3 UNDERSTANDING