How Economists Use Theories and Models to Understand Economic Issues

How To Use Volume And Technicals To Improve Reliability And Profitability Of Breakouts By Mark Boucher Investors following a strategy similar to the one I teach here at TradingMarkets.com, as well as those who follow an O'Neil type strategy, are apt to be buying breakouts to new highs frequently. If you're going to be buying breakouts of four-week-plus flags or five-week-plus cup-and-handles, you need to know all the variables that can help you improve the percentage of these trades that are profitable and/or can help you highlight stocks that have a higher likelihood of moving substantially higher following a breakout. Fortunately, there are a number of technicals that can help a trader in this regard. This month, we'll cover five technical tools that our research shows help increase the reliability of a breakout moving in the intended direction. By putting as many of these as possible together, traders can substantially improve their odds of success in trading breakouts of any kind. Here are the top five things we look for on a breakout to help confirm that a substantial move is in the making (in order of importance): 1. Breakout day closes over pivot resistance and occurs on a TBBLBG. The most important variable is the price action made on the day of a breakout. TBBLBG stands for T hrust Breakout, Breakaway Lap, or B reakaway Gap. The day of the breakout (a new four-plus week high in price) should make one of these three runaway price action patterns. These patterns are described in my 10-week trading course. For a quick review, a Thrust is a large-range day where the close is in the top third of the range which occurs on volume higher than the previous day. A Lap up is a day where today's low is greater than yesterday's close. A Gap up is a day where today's low is greater than yesterday's high. (See Figure 1.) Figure 1. 2. Breakout-day closes over pivot resistance and occurs on strong volume (20% over 50-day MA or near record volume since the trading range began.) The second most important variable is the volume action on the day of breakout. You definitely want strong volume on the day of the breakout to show significant demand is coming in. Demand volume at least 20% above the 50-day MA of volume on your breakouts and your odds will improve. Strong volume can also be defined as the very highest volume since the trading range started. (See Figure 2.) Figure 2. 3. Breakout is confirmed by a higher level of relative strength than occurred since the trading range began. When a stock breaks out in price and also in its Relative Strength vs. other stocks, it is much more likely to be a true market leader and is more likely to follow through. (See Figure 3.) Figure 3. 4. Prior to the breakout day, the trading range showed more accumulation days than distribution days. An accumulation day is a day where prices rise on volume higher than the previous day. A distribution day is a day where prices fall on volume higher than the previous day. A strong stock will show more accumulation days than distribution days during its trading-range consolidation prior to breakout. The second chart of ACRT is an example. If you count up-volume days that are more up vs. up-volume days that are down, there are three more up-volume days that are up than down prior to the breakout day. (See Figure 4.) Figure 4. 5. One or more of four volume accumulation indexes breaks out to a new high (new high prior How Economists Use Theories and Models to Understand Economic Issues How Economists Use Theories and Models to Understand Economic Issues By: OpenStaxCollege John Maynard Keynes One of the most influential economists in modern times was John Maynard Keynes (Credit: Wikimedia Commons) John Maynard Keynes (1883–1946), one of the greatest economists of the twentieth century, pointed out that economics is not just a subject area but also a way of thinking Keynes, shown in [link], famously wrote in the introduction to a fellow economist’s book: “[Economics] is a method rather than a doctrine, an apparatus of the mind, a technique of thinking, which helps its possessor to draw correct conclusions.” In other words, economics teaches you how to think, not what to think Watch this video about John Maynard Keynes and his influence on economics 1/5 How Economists Use Theories and Models to Understand Economic Issues Economists see the world through a different lens than anthropologists, biologists, classicists, or practitioners of any other discipline They analyze issues and problems with economic theories that are based on particular assumptions about human behavior, that are different than the assumptions an anthropologist or psychologist might use A theory is a simplified representation of how two or more variables interact with each other The purpose of a theory is to take a complex, real-world issue and simplify it down to its essentials If done well, this enables the analyst to understand the issue and any problems around it A good theory is simple enough to be understood, while complex enough to capture the key features of the object or situation being studied Sometimes economists use the term model instead of theory Strictly speaking, a theory is a more abstract representation, while a model is more applied or empirical representation Models are used to test theories, but for this course we will use the terms interchangeably For example, an architect who is planning a major office building will often build a physical model that sits on a tabletop to show how the entire city block will look after the new building is constructed Companies often build models of their new products, which are more rough and unfinished than the final product will be, but can still demonstrate how the new product will work A good model to start with in economics is the circular flow diagram, which is shown in [link] It pictures the economy as consisting of two groups—households and firms—that interact in two markets: the goods and services market in which firms sell and households buy and the labor market in which households sell labor to business firms or other employees 2/5 How Economists Use Theories and Models to Understand Economic Issues The Circular Flow Diagram The circular flow diagram shows how households and firms interact in the goods and services market, and in the labor market The direction of the arrows shows that in the goods and services market, households receive goods and services and pay firms for them In the labor market, households provide labor and receive payment from firms through wages, salaries, and benefits Of course, in the real world, there are many different markets for goods and services and markets for many different types of labor The circular flow diagram simplifies this to make the picture easier to grasp In the diagram, firms produce goods and services, which they sell to households in return for revenues This is shown in the outer circle, and represents the two sides of the product market (for example, the market for goods and services) in which households demand and firms supply Households sell their labor as workers to firms in return for wages, salaries and benefits This is shown in the inner circle and represents the two sides of the labor market in which households supply and firms demand This version of the circular flow model is stripped down to the essentials, but it has enough features to explain how the product and labor markets work in the economy We could easily add details to this basic model if we wanted to introduce more real-world elements, like financial markets, governments, and interactions with the rest of the globe (imports and exports) Economists carry a set of theories in their heads like a carpenter carries around a toolkit When they see an economic issue or problem, they go through the theories they know to see if they can find one that fits Then they use the theory to derive insights about the issue or problem In economics, theories are expressed as diagrams, graphs, or even as mathematical equations (Do not worry In this course, we will mostly use graphs.) Economists not figure out the answer to the problem first and then draw the graph to illustrate Rather, they use the graph of the theory to help them figure out the answer Although at the introductory level, you can sometimes figure out the right 3/5 How Economists Use Theories and Models to Understand Economic Issues ...[...]... to re-orientate services in a way that is both empowering to service users and embraces much more of a social perspective 12 SOCIAL PERSPECTIVES IN MENTAL HEALTH Finally, in Chapter 12, I draw together some of the key strands that have emerged from the preceding chapters, and look at how to start putting social perspectives into practice SPN (2003) Start Making Sense… Developing Social Models to Understand. .. Understand and Work with Mental Distress London: Social Perspectives Network CHAPTER 1 Core Themes of Social Perspectives Jerry Tew Over recent years, there has been a resurgence of interest in the social aspects of mental health, both in terms of seeking to understand what may contribute to mental distress, and what forms of support and intervention may be most helpful in assisting people to reclaim... beginning to challenge dominant medicalised understandings of distress, and draws parallels with the disability movement’s campaign to redefine disability from a social perspective Duncan Double gives an insider perspective on competing models and traditions of practice within psychiatry in Chapter 3, showing how more INTRODUCTION 11 holistic and socially oriented models have played, and continue to. .. Psychiatry and the Future of Mental Health Services Ross on Wye: PCCS Books 30 SOCIAL PERSPECTIVES IN MENTAL HEALTH Karban, K (2003) Social work education and mental health in a changing world.’ Social Work Education 22, 2, 191–202 Laing, R (1965) The Divided Self Harmondsworth: Penguin Langan, J and Lindow, V (2004) Living with Risk: Mental Health Service User Involvement in Risk Assessment and Management... the social model of disability to mental health · mental health user networks – understanding ‘symptoms’ as having meaning, and valuing people’s own strategies for resolving or managing their distress · recovery movement – proposing that recovery is more about claiming (or reclaiming) a socially valued lifestyle than becoming ‘symptom-free’ However, although there may be a groundswell of interest in social. .. important role within the development of practice In Chapter 4, I explore aspects of social theory which may be relevant to developing social understandings of mental distress – in particular, frameworks for understanding how both distress itself, and social responses to it, may be shaped by the operation of power relations This may be at the micro-scale of interpersonal interactions, and also in terms of... findings (Social Perspectives Network, 2004) Such a social perspectives approach may be seen as explicitly emancipatory in its purpose, aiming to support a practice of working together that enables people to recover a meaningful degree of control over their lives, live in greater safety and participate more Simpo PDF Merge and Split Unregistered Version - http://www.simpopdf.com Flash XML Applications Prelims-K80917.qxd 8/16/07 2:13 PM Page i Simpo PDF Merge and Split Unregistered Version - http://www.simpopdf.com This page intentionally left blank Simpo PDF Merge and Split Unregistered Version - http://www.simpopdf.com Flash XML Applications Use AS2 and AS3 to Create Photo Galleries, Menus, and Databases Joachim Schnier, Ph.D. AMSTERDAM • BOSTON • HEIDELBERG • LONDON • NEW YORK OXFORD • PARIS • SAN DIEGO • SAN FRANCISCO • SINGAPORE SYDNEY • TOKYO Focal Press is an imprint of Elsevier Prelims-K80917.qxd 8/16/07 2:13 PM Page iii Simpo PDF Merge and Split Unregistered Version - http://www.simpopdf.com Acquisitions Editor: Paul Temme Publishing Se rvices Manager: George Morrison Project Manager: Mónica González de Mendoza Assistant Editor: Dennis McGonagle Marketing Manager: Christine Degon Veroulis Cover Design: Alan Studholme Focal Press is an imprint of Elsevier 30 Corporate Drive, Suite 400, Burlington, MA 01803, USA Linacre House, Jordan Hill, Oxford OX2 8DP, UK Copyright © 2008, Joachim Schnier, Ph.D. Published by Elsevier, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher. Pe rmissions may be sought directly from Elsevier’s Science & Technology Rights Department in Oxford, UK: phone: (ϩ44) 1865 843830, fax: (ϩ44) 1865 853333, e-mail: permissions@elsevier.co.uk. You may also complete your request online via the Elsevier homepage (http://elsevier.com), by selecting “Customer Support” and then “Obtaining Permissions.” Recognizing the importance of preserving what has been written, Elsevier prints its books on acid- free paper whenever possible. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Schnier, Joachim. Flash XML applications: use AS2 and AS3 to create photo galleries, menus, and databases / Joachim Schnier. p. cm. Includes index. ISBN 978-0-240-80917-5 (pbk. : alk. Paper) 1. Computer animation. 2. Flash (Computer file) 3. Web sites— Design. 4. Action Script (Computer program language) I. Title. TR897.7.S3755 2007 006.7Ј86—dc22 2007022353 British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. ISBN: 978-0-240-80917-5 080910111213 10987654321 Typeset by Charon Tec Ltd (A MacMillan Company), Chennai, India www.charontec.com Printed in the United States of America For information on all Focal Press publications visit our website at: www.focalpress.com Prelims-K80917.qxd 8/16/07 2:13 PM Page iv This eBook does not include ancillary media that was packaged with the printed version of the book. Simpo PDF Merge and Split Unregistered Version - http://www.simpopdf.com v Contents Acknowledgements vii Introduction ix Section 1 Introduction to XML Applications and ActionScript 2 1 Chapter 1 XML Introduction 3 Chapter 2 ActionScript 2 Revisited 10 Chapter 3 XML and XMLNode Classes 20 Chapter 4 Tutorial: Creating a Universal XML Load/onload Class 38 Chapter 5 Parsing XML with AS2 46 Chapter 6 Tutorial: Creating a Universal XHTML Parser 53 Chapter 7 XML Server-Side 63 Section 2 Components 73 Chapter 8 The Menu, MenuBar, and Tree Components 75 Chapter 9 The ComboBox Component 85 Chapter 10 Connector Components 90 Chapter 11 Creating an RSS Feed Reader 102 Section 3 Creating a Real Estate Web Site 111 Chapter 12 Creating Your Own Menu Bar 113 Chapter 13 Creating the Database (Part 1) 121 Prelims-K80917.qxd 8/16/07 2:13 PM Page v Original article The effects of ectomycorrhizal status on carbon dioxide assimilation capacity, water-use efficiency and response to transplanting in seedlings of Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb) Franco JM Guehl J Garbaye 1 INRA Centre de Recherches de Nancy, Laboratoire de Bioclimatologie et d’Écophysiologie Forestières, 54280 Champenoux; 2 INRA Centre de Recherches de Nancy, Laboratoire de Microbiologie Forestière, F 54280 Champenoux, France (Received 30 March 1990; accepted 5 December 1990) Summary — One year-old Douglas fir seedlings, mycorrhizal with Laccaria laccata or with Thele- phora terrestris and grown at two levels of phosphorus in the nutrient solution (10 and 40 mg·l -1 P), were compared for water relations and gas exchange before and after transplanting in non-limiting water conditions. The results show that i), L laccata is more efficient than T terrestris in increasing photosynthesis and water use efficiency, ii), phosphorus deficiency reduces photosynthesis and wa- ter use efficiency, iii), the stimulating effect of L laccata on photosynthesis and water use efficiency is, at least partly, due to the improvement of phosphorus nutrition, iv), the photosynthesis reduction resulting from transplanting is due to a non-stomatal mechanism, and v), the recovery of photosyn- thesis involves the regrowth of the external mycelium of mycorrhizas. These results are discussed from the viewpoint of the plant-fungus relationships. ectomycorrhizae / phosphorus nutrition / CO 2 assimilation / water-use efficiency / transplant- ing Résumé — Effets du statut mycorhizien sur la capacité d’assimilation de CO 2, l’efficience d’utilisation de l’eau et la réponse à la transplantation de semis de Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb) Franco. Des semis de 1 an de douglas, mycorhizés par Laccaria laccata ou Thelephora ter- restris ont été élevés durant une saison de croissance à 2 niveaux de phosphore dans la solution nutritive (10 et 40 mg·l -1 P) et ont été comparés du point de vue des relations hydriques et des échanges gazeux avant et après transplantation (à 2 dates différentes, en octobre et en février) en conditions hydriques non limitantes. A faible niveau de phosphore, les plants inoculés par L laccata avaient une surface foliaire plus importante que les plants mycorhizés par T terrestris (tableau 1) et étaient également caractérisés par des taux d’assimilation de CO 2 et d’efficience photosynthétique d’utilisation de l’eau plus élevés (tableau II et fig 1). La carence en phosphore réduit la photosyn- thèse et l’efficience d’utilisation de l’eau (tableau II, fig 1). L’effet stimulant de L laccata sur l’effi- cience de l’eau est dû, au moins en partie, à l’amélioration de la nutrition en phosphore (fig 7 et 9). La réduction de la photosynthèse consécutive à la transplantation (fig 2), bien qu’accompagnée par une fermeture stomatique (fig 3), est dûe essentiellement à un mécanisme non stomatique (fig 4) et n’est pas liée à une altération de l’état hydrique et nutritionel (fig 7 et 8) des plants. Le rétablissement de la photosynthèse après transplantation est concomitant à la régénération racinaire (fig 5), mais son déterminisme implique également la reprise d’activité du champignon (fig 6). Ces résultats sont discu- tés du point de vue des relations plante-champignon. ectomycorhize / nutrition phosphatée / assimulation de CO 2 / efficience de l’eau / transplanta- tion INTRODUCTION Ectomycorrhizal symbiosis is essential for nursery-grown conifer seedlings and is BioMed Central Open Access Page 1 of 9 (page number not for citation purposes) Implementation Science Study protocol Using theories of behaviour to understand transfusion prescribing in three clinical contexts in two countries: Development work for an implementation trial Jill J Francis* 1 , Alan Tinmouth 2,3 , Simon J Stanworth 4 , Jeremy M Grimshaw 2 , Marie Johnston 5 , Chris Hyde 4 , Charlotte Stockton 6 , Jamie C Brehaut 7 , Dean Fergusson 2 and Martin P Eccles 8 Address: 1 Health Services Research Unit, University of Aberdeen, UK, 2 Clinical Epidemiology Programme, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute and Department of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Canada, 3 Canadian Blood Services, Ottawa, Canada, 4 NHS Blood & Transplant, John Radcliffe Hospital, Headington, Oxford, UK, 5 Department of Psychology, University of Aberdeen, UK, 6 Centre for Medical Statistics and Health Evaluation, University of Liverpool, UK, 7 Clinical Epidemiology Programme, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute and Department of Epidemiology and Community Medicine, University of Ottawa, Canada and 8 Institute of Health and Society, Newcastle University, UK Email: Jill J Francis* - j.francis@abdn.ac.uk; Alan Tinmouth - Atinmouth@Ottawahospital.on.ca; Simon J Stanworth - simon.stanworth@nhsbt.nhs.uk; Jeremy M Grimshaw - jgrimshaw@ohri.ca; Marie Johnston - m.johnston@abdn.ac.uk; Chris Hyde - Christopher.Hyde@nbs.nhs.uk; Charlotte Stockton - c.stockton@liv.ac.uk; Jamie C Brehaut - jbrehaut@ohri.ca; Dean Fergusson - dafergusson@ohri.ca; Martin P Eccles - Martin.Eccles@newcastle.ac.uk * Corresponding author Abstract Background: Blood transfusion is an essential part of healthcare and can improve patient outcomes. However, like most therapies, it is also associated with significant clinical risks. In addition, there is some evidence of overuse. Understanding the potential barriers and enablers to reduced prescribing of blood products will facilitate the selection of intervention components likely to be effective, thereby reducing the number of costly trials evaluating different implementation strategies. Using a theoretical basis to understand behaviours targeted for change will contribute to a 'basic science' relating to determinants of professional behaviour and how these inform the selection of techniques for changing behaviour. However, it is not clear which theories of behaviour are relevant to clinicians' transfusing behaviour. The aim of this study is to use a theoretical domains framework to identify relevant theories, and to use these theories to identify factors that predict the decision to transfuse. Methods: The study involves two steps: interview study and questionnaire study. Using a previously identified framework, we will conduct semi-structured interviews with clinicians to elicit their views about which factors are associated with waiting and further monitoring the patient rather than transfusing red blood cells. Interviews will cover the following theoretical domains: knowledge; skills; social/professional role and identity; beliefs about capabilities; beliefs about consequences; motivation and goals; memory, attention, and decision processes; environmental context and resources; social influences; emotion; behavioural regulation; nature of the behaviour. The interviews will take place independently in Canada and the UK and involve two groups of physicians in each country (UK: adult and neonatal intensive care physicians; Canada: intensive care physicians and orthopaedic surgeons). We will: analyse interview transcript content to select Published: 24 October 2009 Implementation Science 2009, 4:70 doi:10.1186/1748-5908-4-70 Received: 12 March 2009 Accepted: 24 October 2009 This article is available from: http://www.implementationscience.com/content/4/1/70 © 2009 Francis et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution ... introductory level, you can sometimes figure out the right 3/5 How Economists Use Theories and Models to Understand Economic Issues answer without applying a model, if you keep studying economics,... goods and services market in which firms sell and households buy and the labor market in which households sell labor to business firms or other employees 2/5 How Economists Use Theories and Models. . .How Economists Use Theories and Models to Understand Economic Issues Economists see the world through a different lens than anthropologists,