Climate and the Effects of Global Climate Change

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i The Effects of Land Use on the Mobility of Elderly and Disabled and Their Homecare Workers, and the Effects of Care on Client Mobility: Findings from Contra Costa, California by Anne Orelind Decker B.A. (Harvard University) 1996 A thesis submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of Master in City and Regional Planning in the GRADUATE DIVISION of the UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, BERKELEY Committee in charge: Professor Martin Wachs Professor Elizabeth Deakin Professor Paola Timeras Summer 2005 1 1 Note that a few typographical errors were corrected in December 2005, so this version differs slightly from the one submitted as a master’s thesis. ii Abstract The Effects of Land Use on the Mobility of Elderly and Disabled and Their Homecare Workers, and the Effects of Care on Client Mobility: Findings from Contra Costa, California This study looks at the relationships among land use; the mobility of disabled and elderly recipients of public home healthcare; the mobility of their homecare workers; and how much care those homecare workers provide. The findings are based on nearly 1,300 survey responses from clients and homecare workers in the In-Home Supportive Services (IHSS) program in Contra Costa County, California, a publicly funded program for individuals with disabilities who have low incomes. The homecare workers I surveyed belong to the Service Employees International Union (SEIU). The qualitative data and descriptive statistics paint a portrait of both populations’ transportation habits and challenges. Regression analyses, controlling for variables such as car ownership, disability level, gender, age, and race, tested the interactions between the variables of interest in six hypotheses. The results are complex and occasionally conflicting, yet patterns appear. For example, the IHSS clients have car-use rates far lower than average, with only 10% driving themselves when they leave home, and almost half live alone; these facts, combined with their low incomes and disabilities, mean that IHSS clients are sensitive to how much transportation assistance they receive in terms of how often they leave home and what destinations they are able to reach. They also respond to land use characteristics, especially when measured at the neighborhood scale, with those living in higher density and accessibility areas generally experiencing greater mobility. The homecare workers similarly have low incomes and use alternative modes of iii transportation more often than do Contra Costa commuters on average. Unlike their clients, homecare workers living in higher density and accessibility areas generally experienced increased travel challenges. But living closer to their clients was associated with being able to provide more effective care, as was having an easier commute measured by other variables. The more care provided, the greater mobility their clients experienced. The populations of care recipients and professional homecare workers are growing as, Climate and the Effects of Global Climate Change Climate and the Effects of Global Climate Change Bởi: OpenStaxCollege All biomes are universally affected by global conditions, such as climate, that ultimately shape each biome’s environment Scientists who study climate have noted a series of marked changes that have gradually become increasingly evident during the last sixty years Global climate change is the term used to describe altered global weather patterns, including a worldwide increase in temperature, due largely to rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide Climate and Weather A common misconception about global climate change is that a specific weather event occurring in a particular region (for example, a very cool week in June in central Indiana) is evidence of global climate change However, a cold week in June is a weather-related event and not a climate-related one These misconceptions often arise because of confusion over the terms climate and weather Climate refers to the long-term, predictable atmospheric conditions of a specific area The climate of a biome is characterized by having consistent temperature and annual rainfall ranges Climate does not address the amount of rain that fell on one particular day in a biome or the colder-than-average temperatures that occurred on one day In contrast, weather refers to the conditions of the atmosphere during a short period of time Weather forecasts are usually made for 48-hour cycles Long-range weather forecasts are available but can be unreliable To better understand the difference between climate and weather, imagine that you are planning an outdoor event in northern Wisconsin You would be thinking about climate when you plan the event in the summer rather than the winter because you have long-term knowledge that any given Saturday in the months of May to August would be a better choice for an outdoor event in Wisconsin than any given Saturday in January However, you cannot determine the specific day that the event should be held on because it is difficult to accurately predict the weather on a specific day Climate can be considered “average” weather 1/10 Climate and the Effects of Global Climate Change Global Climate Change Climate change can be understood by approaching three areas of study: • current and past global climate change • causes of past and present-day global climate change • ancient and current results of climate change It is helpful to keep these three different aspects of climate change clearly separated when consuming media reports about global climate change It is common for reports and discussions about global climate change to confuse the data showing that Earth’s climate is changing with the factors that drive this climate change Evidence for Global Climate Change Since scientists cannot go back in time to directly measure climatic variables, such as average temperature and precipitation, they must instead indirectly measure temperature To this, scientists rely on historical evidence of Earth’s past climate Antarctic ice cores are a key example of such evidence These ice cores are samples of polar ice obtained by means of drills that reach thousands of meters into ice sheets or high mountain glaciers Viewing the ice cores is like traveling backwards through time; the deeper the sample, the earlier the time period Trapped within the ice are bubbles of air and other biological evidence that can reveal temperature and carbon dioxide data Antarctic ice cores have been collected and analyzed to indirectly estimate the temperature of the Earth over the past 400,000 years ([link]a) The °C on this graph refers to the long-term average Temperatures that are greater than °C exceed Earth’s long-term average temperature Conversely, temperatures that are less than °C are less than Earth’s average temperature This figure shows that there have been periodic cycles of increasing and decreasing temperature Before the late 1800s, the Earth has been as much as °C cooler and about °C warmer Note that the graph in [link]b shows that the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has also risen and fallen in periodic cycles; note the relationship between carbon dioxide concentration and temperature [link]b shows that carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have historically cycled between 180 and 300 parts per million (ppm) by volume 2/10 Climate and the Effects of Global Climate Change Ice at the Russian Vostok station in East Antarctica was laid down over the course 420,000 years and reached a depth of over 3,000 m By measuring the amount of CO2 trapped in the ice, scientists have determined past atmospheric CO2 concentrations Temperatures relative to modern day were determined from the amount of deuterium (an isotope of hydrogen) present [link]a does not show the last 2,000 years with enough detail to compare the changes of Earth’s temperature during the last 400,000 years with the temperature change that has occurred in the more recent ... IndustryThe structure of industrial production and the service industries is characterized by the prevalence of smarkforce, 30% beingll and medium-sized companies (94% and 5.6% according to 100 workers) thoug981 data), employing, however, only 70% of the workforce, 30% being monopolized by large c ompanies (more than 100 workers) though these comprise only 0.4% of the total. This means that companies are widely dispersed over the whole country, obviously with significant location and concentration of industry, and more than half the industrial comp anies operate at little more than workshop level, as is seen by the small workforce in each production unit.On the other hand, the small number of large companies is explained by increased concentration, at that level also indicated by the high number of employees.There is only a limited number of cooperative companies (food sector and the transformation of agricultural products), while large companies tend to become multinational. The presence of companies with foreign capital monopolizing specific commodity secto rs (pharmaceuticals, photographic materials, electronics, cosmetics etc.) is far from rare.One particular kind of development regards medium-sized companies, frequently derivations of small family-run businesses with a specialized production, which as a result of management flexibility have succeeded in reconverting production and using technol ogical innovations which, with increased competitivity, enable them to penetrate international markets, in this way contributing to the consolidation of the Italian image and presence throughout the world.The Industrial SectorsThe steel and metalworking industriesThe country's economic revival in the immediate postwar period was essentially sustained by development and expansion of the basic industries, particularly the steel industry, itself conditioned by the importation of raw materials such as ores, scrap iron and coal.Membership of ECSC enabled the Italian steel industry, which had installed the integral processing cycle, to attain extremely high levels of production thus satisfying increasingly greater domestic demand, such as that of the engineering industry, as well as the export market. Following plant reconversion steel and metal production is now stagnating due to the international economic situation dominated by strong competition from Japanese industries and plastics, leading to overproduction in the principal European countries.The engineering industriesMechanical engineering production is extremely varied and includes companies such as shipbuilding, aerospace, carbuilding etc. with complex work cycles, together with the manufacturers of simple tools. Component manufacturing is also well developed and cl osely allied to companies producing durable goods not easily classified in any one sector (for example, non-metallic materials used in the car industry: rubber, glass, plastics etc).In practice, mechanical engineering with its diversification and multiple relationships with other industries is considered the mainstay of the national productive system also in terms of the large workforce employed (over 2,2 million according to the 198 1 census, including small workshops). Apart from cars and other vehicles, the most highly developed industries are tools, household appliances, electronic equipment, precision instruments etc. The industrial machinery sector is particularly active with ex tensive overseas markets, and includes components for This page intentionally left blank Economics and the Challenge of Global Warming Economics and the Challenge of Global Warming is a balanced, rigorous, and comprehensive analysis of the role of economics in confronting global warming, the central environmental issue of the twenty-first century. It avoids a technical exposition to reach a wide audience and is up to date in its theoretical and empirical underpinnings. It is addressed to all who have some knowledge of economic concepts and a serious interest in how economics can (and cannot) help in crafting climate policy. The book is organized around three central questions. First, can cost-benefit analysis guide us in setting warming targets? Second, what strategies and policies are cost-effective? Third, and most difficult, can a global agreement be forged between rich and poor, the global North and South? Although eco- nomic concepts are foremost in the analysis, they are placed within an accessible ethical and political matrix. The book serves as a primer for the post-Kyoto era. Charles S. Pearson is Senior Adjunct Professor of International Economics and Environment at the Diplomatic Academy of Vienna and Professor Emeritus at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, Washington, DC. During his tenure at SAIS, he directed the International Economics Program for seventeen years and taught at all three campuses in Washington, Bologna, and Nanjing. His teaching and research reflect a deep interest in international environ- mental economics. He pioneered seminars on trade and environment, the role of multinational corporations, and environmental cost-benefit anal- ysis. His books reflect these interests, with research on global warming published as early as 1978. They include Environment: North and South, International Marine Environment Policy, and Economics and the Global Environment (Cambridge University Press, 2000). He has been Adjunct Senior Associate at World Resources Institute and the East-West Center, and consultant to the U.S. government, international organizations, and industrial, financial, and legal organizations in the private sector. He received his Ph.D. in economics from Cornell University. Economics and the Challenge of Global Warming Charles s. Pearson Diplomatic Academy of Vienna and Emeritus, Johns Hopkins University c a m b r i d g e u n i v e r s i t y p r e s s Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo, Delhi, Tokyo, Mexico City Cambridge University Press 32 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10013-2473, USA www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9781107649071 © Charles S. Pearson 2011 This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published 2011 Printed in the United States of America A catalog record for this publication is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Pearson, Charles S. Economics and the challenge of global warming / Charles S. Pearson. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-107-01151-9 – ISBN 978-1-107-64907-1 (pbk.) A S E A N B I O D I V E R S I T Y 1 A SEAN SEAN C C ENTRE ENTRE B B IODIVERSITY IODIVERSITY FOR FOR www.aseanbiodiversity.org Conserve Biodiversity, Save Humanity! ASEAN Region’s Rich Biodiversity Despite occupying only three percent of the earth’s surface, the ASEAN region hosts 20 percent of all known species that live deep in the region’s mountains, jungles, rivers, lakes and seas. The region includes three mega-diverse states (Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines); several bio-geographical units (e.g., Malesia, Wallacea, Sundaland, Indo-Burma and the Central Indo-Pacific); and numerous centers of concentration of restricted-range bird, plant and insect species. ASEAN has one-third, translating to 284,000 square kilometers, of all coral reefs, which are among the most diverse in the world. Common land and water borders have allowed the ASEAN states to share many species that are biologically diverse from the rest of the world. All these make the ASEAN region significant to global diversity. The Threat The region’s rich biodiversity is heavily under threat. Out of 64,800 known species, two percent or 1,312 are endangered. Seven of the world’s 34 recognized biodiversity hotspots are in the ASEAN region. If the rate of deforestation continues, the region will lose up to three-fourths of its forests, and up to 42 percent of its biodiversity by 2100. Some 80 percent of coral reefs are at risk due to destructive fishing practices and coral bleaching. Forest conversion, forest fires, shifting cultivation, large-scale mining, wildlife hunting and trading, population growth and poverty, climate change, and lack of conservation resources greatly contribute to biodiversity loss. Biodiversity loss could trigger enormous effects on food security, health, shelter, medicine, and aesthetic and other life-sustaining resources. Without a concerted effort to protect and conserve biodiver- sity, the ASEAN region’s 567 million people and the entire human race would be in danger. ASEAN’s Response: ASEAN Centre for Biodiversity As an intergovernmental regional organization, the ASEAN Centre for Biodiversity (ACB) facilitates cooperation and co- ordination among the members states of ASEAN, and with relevant national governments, regional and international organizations, on the conservation and sustainable use of bio- logical diversity guided by fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising from the use of such biodiversity in the ASEAN region. ACB aims to contribute to the reduction of the current rate of loss of biological diversity by enhancing regional cooperation, capacitating stakeholders, promoting awareness for biodiver- sity conservation, and maintaining the regional biodiversity database. To contribute to the achievement of socially respon- sible access, equitable sharing, use and conservation of natural ecosystems and the biodiversity these contain, ACB builds stra- tegic networks and partnerships geared to mobilize resources towards optimally augmenting effective programmes on biodi- versity conservation. Contact Us ACB Headquarters 3F ERDB Bldg., Forestry Campus College, Laguna 4031,Philippines Tel/fax: +632.534-4247, +6349.536-2865 Website: www.aseanbiodiversity.org General Inquiry: contact.us@aseanbiodiversity.org A S E A N B I O D I V E R S I T Y 3 Inside Vol. 8, No. 2  May - August 2009 Message from the Final address Genetics of oak species and the spectre of global climate change FT Ledig Institute of Forest Genetics, Pacific Southwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service, PO Box 245, Berkeley, CA 94701, USA Summary — Information on the population genetics of oaks is important in designing conservation strategies. If the threat of global warming materializes as projected, it will be necessary to actively in- tervene to conserve the genetic resources of oaks and other wildland plants. What has been learned about the genetic structure of oak species and gene flow within and among species will guide sam- pling efforts and the management of in situ reserves. However, it will be necessary to provide a backup for natural reserves by propagating oaks ex situ in provenance tests, clone banks or tissue cuiture. climate change / population genetics / conservation Résumé — Génétique des chênes et le spectre du changement climatique. L’information rela- tive à la génétique des populations des chênes est un préalable nécessaire à l’adoption d’une straté- gie de conservation de ces espèces. Si la menace du réchauffement global se concrétise, des me- sures concrètes devront être prises pour sauvegarder les ressources génétiques des chênes et d’autres espèces sauvages. Les connaissances acquises à propos de la structure génétique des chênes et des flux géniques à l’intérieur et entre espèces seront valorisées dans l’échantillonnage et la gestion in situ des réserves. En outre il sera sans doute nécessaire d’attribuer des moyens com- plémentaires à cette conservation en multipliant ex situ les chênes en tests de provenances, banques de clones ou par la culture in vitro. changement climatique / génétique des populations / conservation In closing the IUFRO Symposium on the Genetics of Oak Species, I would like to draw a connection between what we have learned about the population biology of oaks and the dilemma of conservation in the face of global warming. In his welcoming address, B Chevalier, Sous-Directeur des Forêts au Ministère de l’Agriculture, introduced the topic of global warming in his reference to the Strasbourg Conference of 1990. He stressed the im- portance of genetic resources in an era of environmental change. However, we gen- erally failed to follow Mr Chevalier’s lead and largely neglected the implications of our research to the management of genet- ic resources threatened by global warm- ing. Recently, two groups (Davis and Zabin- ski, 1992; Botkin, 1991) modeled the effect of a 2.5 °C change on the ranges of some North American forest trees. Though no oaks were included in their simulations, Davis and Zabinski (1992) did model the effect of climate change on the range of another Fagaceae, American beech (Fa- gus grandifolia Ehrh). An increase in mean annual temperature of 2.5 °C will eliminate beech from most of its range in the south- ern and central United States (fig 1). Changes in forest composition will occur very rapidly, in less than 50 years, as pro- jected by Botkin et al (1991) forest growth simulator. Where will the genetic resources come from to replace the species lost as a result of climate change? Perhaps, southern species can be moved north. Mark Cog- gleshall may no longer have to worry about winter injury to his southern red oak (Quercus falcata Michx) in Indiana. And the rich genetic resources that Kevin Nixon described in Mexico may find a place in the southern United States or Europe, if Mexican .. .Climate and the Effects of Global Climate Change Global Climate Change Climate change can be understood by approaching three areas of study: • current and past global climate change •... and 3.4 mm per year A variety of factors affect the volume of water in the ocean, including the temperature of the water (the density of water 8/10 Climate and the Effects of Global Climate Change. .. predictable changes in the Earth’s climate associated with changes in the Earth’s orbit at a minimum of every 19,000 years 4/10 Climate and the Effects of Global Climate Change The variation in the sun’s