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Bộ nông nghiệp phát triển nông thôn trờng đại học thủy lợi Báo cáo tổng kết đề tài hợptác theo nghị định th với italia hợptácNghiêncứuxâydựngcôngnghệdựbáolũtrunghạnkếtnốivớicôngnghệđiềuhànhhệthốngcôngtrìnhphòngchốnglũchođồngsônghồng-sôngtháibình Chủ nhiệm đề tài: pgs, ts vũ minh cát 6735 24/2/2008 hà nội- 2007 B KHOA HC V CễNG NGH ********** B NễNG NGHIP V PHT TRIN NễNG THễN ********** TRNG I HC THU LI ============================================================= BO CO KT QU TI NGHIấN CU KHOA HC CễNG NGH CP NH NC Hp tỏc nghiờn cu xõy dng cụng ngh d bỏo l trung hn kt ni vi cụng ngh iu hnh h thng cụng trỡnh phũng chng l cho ng bng sụng Hng sụng Thỏi Bỡnh BO CO TNG KT C quan qun lý: B Khoa hc Cụng Ngh B nụng nghip v phỏt trin nụng thụn C quan ch trỡ: Trng i hc Thu li Ch nhim ti: PGS.TS V Minh Cỏt H ni thỏng 11 - 2007 B KHOA HC V CễNG NGH ********** B NễNG NGHIP V PHT TRIN NễNG THễN ********** TRNG I HC THU LI ============================================================ BO CO KT QU TI NGHIấN CU KHOA HC CễNG NGH CP NH NC Hp tỏc nghiờn cu xõy dng cụng ngh d bỏo l trung hn kt ni vi cụng ngh iu hnh h thng cụng trỡnh phũng chng l cho ng bng sụng Hng sụng Thỏi Bỡnh GIAI ON 2006 - 2007 BO CO TNG KT C quan qun lý: B nụng nghip v phỏt trin nụng thụn B Khoa hc Cụng Ngh C quan ch trỡ: Trng i hc Thu li Ch nhim ti: PGS.TS V Minh Cỏt Nhng ngi thc hin: PGS.TS V Minh Cỏt, HTL PGS.TS Lờ Vn Nghinh, HTL TS Nguyn Lan Chõu, TTDBKTTVTW Ths L Thy, TTDBKTTVTW Ths Hong Thanh Tựng Ths Nguyn Hong Sn Ths Phm Xuõn Ho NCS Ngụ Lờ An V nhng cng tỏc viờn khỏc H Ni Thỏng 11 - 2007 MC LC CHNG I: M U .1 1.1 M u 1.2 Mc tiờu v ni dung nghiờn cu 1.3 Phm vi ca ti .3 1.4 Ni dung v cỏc phng phỏp nghiờn cu 1.4.1 D bỏo ma trung hn 1.4.2 D bỏo l trung hn 1.4.3 Tớch hp d bỏo ma l trung hn iu hnh h thng h cha 1.5 Tng quan tỡnh hỡnh nghiờn cu thuc lnh vc ca ti 1.5.1 Tỡnh hỡnh nghiờn cu nc 1.5.2 Tỡnh hỡnh nghiờn cu ngoi nc 11 1.6 úng gúp ca mi bờn ti hp tỏc nghiờn cu 13 1.6.1 Phớa i tỏc Italy 14 1.6.2 Phớa i tỏc Vit Nam 15 CHNG II: TNG QUAN V LU VC SễNG HNG THI BèNH THU THP, PHN TCH V QUN Lí CC TI LIU C BN 19 2.1 Tng quan v lu vc sụng Hng Thỏi Bỡnh 19 2.1.1 Tng quan chung 19 2.1.2 c im a hỡnh 20 2.1.3 c im a cht, th nhng v thc vt .21 2.1.4 c im khớ hu .22 2.1.5 c im h thng sụng ngũi 25 2.1.6 c im dõn sinh kinh t 28 2.2 Thu thp v phõn tớch ti liu c bn 28 2.2.1 S liu khớ tng 28 2.2.1.1 Mng li trm o khớ tng 28 2.2.1.2 ỏnh giỏ chung v ti liu khớ tng 29 ii 2.2.1.3 Mt s c im chung v khớ tng trờn h thng 30 2.2.2 S liu thy 31 2.2.2.1 Mng li trm o c thy .31 2.2.2.2 ỏnh giỏ chung v ti liu khớ tng thu .31 2.2.2.3 c im thy trờn lu vc sụng Hng Thỏi Bỡnh 32 2.2.3 S liu thy cỏc h cha 35 2.2.4 Ti liu a hỡnh h thng sụng Hng -Sụng Thỏi Bỡnh 36 2.2.4.1 Ti liu a hỡnh cỏc h cha 36 2.2.4.2 Bn s DEM thuc lu vc sụng Hng 36 2.2.4.3 Ti liu a hỡnh h thng sụng Hng .36 2.2.4.4 Ti liu a hỡnh cỏc khu phõn chm l 36 2.2.5 Ti liu v thm ph thc vt v bn t lu vc sụng Hng .37 2.3 Xõy dng c s d liu 37 2.3.1 C s s liu bn 38 2.3.2 C s s liu KTTV 40 2.3.2.1 Gii thiu phn mm WRDB 41 2.3.2.2 Xõy dng c s d liu KTTV s dng phn mm WRDB 42 2.3.2.3 Khai thỏc c s d liu KTTV ó xõy dng 58 CHNG III: NGHIấN CU XY DNG CễNG NGH D BO MA TRUNG HN 65 3.1 D bỏo ma Vit Nam 65 3.1.1 c im s hỡnh thnh ma v t hp cỏc kiu hỡnh thi tit gõy ma ln lu vc sụng Hng 65 3.1.1.1 Cỏc hỡnh th in hỡnh 65 3.1.1.2 c im hỡnh th thi tit gõy ma l ln trờn lu vc sụng Hng66 3.1.2 ỏnh giỏ hin trng cỏc phng phỏp d bỏo ma Vit nam 69 3.2 Th nghim mụ hỡnh BOLAM ca Italia 70 3.2.1 Gii thiu mụ hỡnh BOLAM 70 iii 3.2.1.1 ng lc hc v phng phỏp s 71 3.2.1.2 Vt lý v cỏc s tham s húa vt lý 73 3.2.1.3 iu kin ban u v iu kin biờn .74 3.2.1.4 Tin x lý v hu x lý mụ hỡnh BoLAM 76 3.2.2 Nghiờn cu ng dng mụ hỡnh BoLAM cho Vit Nam 76 3.2.2.1 Thay i cu trỳc th mc mụ hỡnh BoLAM 79 3.2.3 D bỏo th nghim bng mụ hỡnh BOLAM l 2007 83 3.3 Mt s kt qa so sỏnh mụ hỡnh BoLAM v mụ hỡnh HRM 95 3.4 Kt lun v kin ngh 102 CHNG IV: NGHIấN CU XY DNG CễNG NGH D BO L 103 4.1 Cỏc phng phỏp d bỏo thy thng dựng Vit Nam 103 a Cỏc phng phỏp thng dựng d bỏo thy 103 Phng phỏp xu th 103 2.Phng phỏp lu lng v mc nc tng ng 104 Phng phỏp lng tr 104 Nhúm cỏc phng phỏp phõn tớch thng kờ 105 Phng phỏp mng N ron thn kinh Mng trớ tu nhõn to (Artificial Neural Network) 105 Phng phỏp s dng cỏc mụ hỡnh thy v thy lc .106 Phng phỏp k thut s .106 b.Tng kt cỏc phng phỏp thng dựng d bỏo ngn hn, trung hn v di hn Vit Nam 107 Cỏc phng phỏp d bỏo ngn hn 108 Cỏc phng phỏp d bỏo trung hn .108 Cỏc phng phỏp d bỏo di hn 109 4.2 Phõn tớch c im ma l trờn h thng sụng Hng 109 4.2.1 c im ca ma gõy l trờn lu vc h thng sụng Hng .109 4.2.2 Vai trũ ca tr lng nc trờn lu vc i vi s hỡnh thnh l 113 iv 4.2.3 T hp l sụng , Lụ, Thao 116 c im ma gõy l lu vc sụng Thao: .117 Dũng chy l sụng Lụ .121 4.3 Xõy dng cụng ngh d bỏo l ngn hn h thng sụng Hng 125 4.3.1 Phng phỏp hi quy a bin 128 a C s ca phng phỏp Hi quy a bin 128 b Cỏc gi thit ca phng phỏp v quy trỡnh thc hin phng phỏp 128 c Xõy dng ma trn tng quan .129 d Phng trỡnh d bỏo v cỏc phộp th 130 a Cu trỳc mng ANN 138 b Quỏ trỡnh quột xuụi 139 c Hm kớch hot 139 d Chun hoỏ (Normalization) 140 e La chn s mng n ron thn kinh ban u 141 f Phng phỏp quột ngc (Back Propagation Method) 141 g Mt s yu t nh hng n quỏ trỡnh hc theo phng phỏp lan truyn ngc sai s .143 h Vn hc cha v hc quỏ thuc ca mng 144 i Mt s gii phỏp cho hc quỏ ca mng: 144 j Gii thiu phn mm neuroSolutions .145 4.3.3 Xõy dng cỏc phng ỏn d bỏo l ngn hn cho cỏc v trớ khỏc trờn h thng sụng Hng 147 4.3.3.2 Kt qu d bỏo l cho sụng Thao: 150 4.3.3.3 Kt qu d bỏo l cho sụng Lụ- Gõm: 160 4.3.3.2 Kt qu d bỏo l cho sụng : 166 4.4 Xõy dng cụng ngh d bỏo l trung hn h thng sụng Hng 176 4.4.1 ng dng mụ hỡnh ca i tỏc ngh DIMOSHONG 176 4.4.1.1 Gii thiu mụ hỡnh DIMOSHONG 176 v 4.4.1.2 Xõy dng mụ hỡnh DIMOSHONG cholu vc h thng sụng Hng 178 4.4.1.3 Kt qu mụ phng mụ hỡnh DIMOSHONG cho cỏc trn l ln cho h thng sụng Hng 186 4.4.2 ng dng mụ hỡnh HEC-HMS .191 4.4.2.1 Gii thiu mụ hỡnh HEC-HMS 191 4.4.2.2 Xõy dng mụ hỡnh HEC-HMS cholu vc h thng sụng Hng.192 b Kt ni d liu liu ma vo d bỏo dũng chy 193 c Túm tt mt s kt qu tớnh toỏn v d bỏo dũng chy t ma .196 4.5 Xõy dng cụng ngh d bỏo l cho h thng sụng Hng 197 4.5.1 Lp trỡnh kt ni v xõy dng cụng ngh 197 4.5.2 S dng cụng ngh d bỏo ngn hn .198 4.5.3 S dng cụng ngh d bỏo trung hn bng mụ hỡnh DIMOSHONG 199 4.5.4 S dng cụng ngh d bỏo trung hn bng HEC-HMS 201 4.6 Th nghim cụng ngh d bỏo l trung hn cho l 2007 207 4.6.1 D bỏo th nghim s dng mụ hỡnh DIMOSHONG 207 4.6.2 D bỏo th nghim s dng mụ hỡnh HEC-HMS 210 CHNG V: CễNG NGH KT NI D BO MA VI D BO L TRUNG HN 213 5.1 Xõy dng phn mm kt ni gia d bỏo ma vi d bỏo l .214 5.1.1 Lp trỡnh c v ghi kt qu d bỏo t BOLAM file PPF file s liu vo cho DIMOSHONG 214 5.1.2 Lp trỡnh giao din x lý s liu u vo v hin th kt qu 224 1) Chng trỡnh Nhp d liu 224 2) Chng trỡnh hin th kt qu chy mụ hỡnh DIMOSHONG 236 CHNG VI: KT NI Mễ HèNH D BO MA L TRONG IU HNH H THNG H CHA PHềNG CHNG L 257 6.1 Xõy dng mụ hỡnh kt ni d bỏo ma l vi iu hnh h thng h cha phũng l 257 6.1.1 Gii thiu túm tt mụ hỡnh HEC-HMS v kh nng iu tit h cha .257 vi 6.1.2 Mụ phng h thng sụng Hng phc v iu hnh h thng h cha bng HEC-HMS .261 6.2 La chn h thng kch bn v ma v dũng chy l phc v iu hnh th nghim theo mụ hỡnh d bỏo l trung hn 265 6.2.1 Nhng cn c thit lp h thng kch bn 265 6.2.2 La chn kch bn ma l 266 6.3 Phng ỏn hnh h thng h cha phũng l theo thi gian d kin ca d bỏo hn trung (t n ngy) 268 6.3.1 iu tit cỏc h thi k l sm 268 6.3.2 iu tit cỏc h thi k l chớnh v .269 6.3.3 iu tit cỏc h thi k l mun 270 6.3.4 Vn hnh m bo an ton cụng trỡnh .271 6.4 Kt qu hnh th nghim h thng h cha theo cỏc kch bn 272 Trn l lch s nm 1971 xy thi k l sm t 15 thỏng n 15 thỏng 272 Trn l lch s nm 1971 xy thi k l chớnh v t 16 thỏng n 25 thỏng 275 Trn l lch s nm 1971 xy thi k l mun t 26 thỏng n 15 thỏng 279 6.5 Th nghim mụ hỡnh hnh l 2007 283 CHNG VII: KT LUN V KIN NGH 287 7.1 Kt lun 287 a V khoa hc cụng ngh 287 b V mt hp tỏc quc t 290 c V mt o to .290 d V phc v sn xut .291 7.2 Kin ngh 291 TI LIU THAM KHO 293 vii MC LC HèNH V Hỡnh 2.1: V trớ a lý lu vc sụng Hng Thỏi Bỡnh lónh th Vit Nam 19 Hỡnh 2.2: Giao din trang u ca Chng trỡnh qun lý c s d liu 38 Hỡnh 2.3: CSDL qun lý bn DEM cú phõn gii khỏc ca c nc 39 Hỡnh 2.4: CSDL qun lý ton b bn quột t l 1:50.000 ca c nc 39 Hỡnh 2.5: S cu trỳc CSDL WRDB 42 Hỡnh 2.6: S mng li trm khớ tng thy trờn h thng sụng Hng Thỏi Bỡnh 43 Hỡnh 2.7: Giao din bng support 48 Hỡnh 2.8: Cỏc yu t o 49 Hỡnh 2.9: Phõn nhúm cỏc yu t o 50 Hỡnh 2.10: Phõn nhúm cỏc yu t o 50 Hỡnh 2.11: S nhp d liu cho CSDL KTTV 57 Hỡnh 2.12: Vớ d nhp d liu mc nc v lu lng trm Sn Tõy 58 Hỡnh 2.13: D liu mc nc v lu lng trm Sn Tõy bng Import 58 Hỡnh 2.14: Bng thng kờ theo trm v thụng s 59 Hỡnh 2.15: Lc d liu mc nc trm cú mó trm l 74165 60 Hỡnh 2.16: Sp xp d liu t ln n nhh theo mó trm v theo kt qu 60 Hỡnh 2.17 La chn d liu mc nc trm Sn Tõy bng QBE Query 61 Hỡnh 2.18: ng quỏ trỡnh mc nc trm Mng Tố v Lai Chõu trờn cựng mt trc ta 61 Hỡnh 2.19: Mi tng quan mc nc ti trm Mng Tố v Lai Chõu 62 Hỡnh 2.20: ng dn chn cỏc vựng d liu quan tõm 62 Hỡnh 2.21: Chn cỏc vựng d liu quan tõm 63 Hỡnh 2.22: Kim tra vựng d liu c chn 63 Hỡnh 3.1: Biu quy trỡnh chy mụ hỡnh BoLAM trờn mỏy tớnh PC-Linux 78 Hỡnh 3.2: Cu trỳc th mc mi ca mụ hỡnh BoLAM 80 viii Drofa, O., P.Malguzzi, G Fioravanti, A Buzzi, 2003: Modelling of the thermal and water exchange in the vegetated soil and interaction with the atmosphere Proceeding of the conference of "Associazione Italiana di Agrometeorologia" (Italian Agrometeorological Association) 2003, Bologna May 29-30 2003 (in Italian) Emmett, W., W., 1970 The hydraulics of overland flow on hillslopes, Geological Survey Professional Paper 662-A Georgelin, M., P Bougeault, T Black, N Brzovic, A Buzzi, J Calvo, V Cassộ, M Desgagnộ, R ElKhatib, J F Geleyn, T Holt, S.-Y Hong, T Kato, J Katzfey, K Kurihara, B Lacroix, F Lalaurette, Y Lemaitre, J Mailhot, D Majewski, P Malguzzi, V Masson, J Mcgregor, E Minguzzi, T Paccagnella and C Wilson, 2000: The second COMPARE exercise: a model 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Global Land Cover Characterisation, V.2.0, on website http://edcsns17.cr.usgs.gov/glcc/ Vu Minh Cat, Le Van Nghinh, Ngo Le An, L sụng Hng v d bỏo l ti H Ni Red River Flood and its forecasting at Hanoi Station, Workshop on Natural environment, sustainable protection and conservation: Italy Vietnam cooperation perspectives, 2004 Zampieri, M., P Malguzzi and A Buzzi, 2005: Sensitivity of quantitative precipitation forecasts to boundary layer parameterization: a flash flood case study in theWestern Mediterranean Natural Hazard Earth System Sci., 5, 603-612 Zonn SV, Tropical and Subtropical Soil Science, MIR, Moscow, 1986 81 Annexes A Hydrometic stations Vector Layer Name Vector Layer Type Reference System Reference Units Unit Distance ID/Value Type Number of Features : : : : : : : HYDROMETRICSTATIONS SONGHONG Text utm-48n m Integer 20 Feature Number ID or Value Coordinates (X,Y) Caption Style Rotation Justification X Justification Y : : : : : : : : 1 538406.773606 Hoa Binh 90 0.5 Feature Number ID or Value Coordinates (X,Y) Caption Style Rotation Justification X Justification Y : : : : : : : : 2 528750.119081 Lo@Tuyen Quang 90 0.5 Feature Number ID or Value Coordinates (X,Y) Caption Style Rotation Justification X Justification Y : : : : : : : : 3 528750.119081 Thao@Phu Tho 90 0.5 Feature Number ID or Value Coordinates (X,Y) Caption Style Rotation Justification X Justification Y : : : : : : : : 4 559329.525077 Hong@Son Tay 90 0.5 Feature Number ID or Value Coordinates (X,Y) Caption Style Rotation Justification X Justification Y : : : : : : : : 5 593932.537125 Hong@Ha Noi 90 0.5 Feature Number ID or Value Coordinates (X,Y) Caption : : : : 6 485777.848246 Thao@Yen Bai 2304165.419501 2415066.099773 2367652.040816 2339525.056689 2321845.238095 2400058.526536 82 Style Rotation Justification X Justification Y : : : : 135 0.5 Feature Number ID or Value Coordinates (X,Y) Caption Style Rotation Justification X Justification Y : : : : : : : : 7 393458.118225 Thao@Lao Cai 90 0.5 Feature Number ID or Value Coordinates (X,Y) Caption Style Rotation Justification X Justification Y : : : : : : : : 8 538650.0 @Na Hang 90 0.5 Feature Number ID or Value Coordinates (X,Y) Caption Style Rotation Justification X Justification Y : : : : : : : : 9 537650.0 @Bac Me 90 0.5 Feature Number ID or Value Coordinates (X,Y) Caption Style Rotation Justification X Justification Y : : : : : : : : 10 10 528650.0 2439050.0 @Chiam Hoa 90 0.5 Feature Number ID or Value Coordinates (X,Y) Caption Style Rotation Justification X Justification Y : : : : : : : : 11 11 497650.0 @Ha Giang 90 0.5 Feature Number ID or Value Coordinates (X,Y) Caption Style Rotation Justification X Justification Y : : : : : : : : 12 12 488650.0 @Vinh Tuy 90 0.5 Feature Number ID or Value Coordinates (X,Y) Caption : : : : 13 13 505650.0 @Ham Yen 2488970.771270 2471050.0 2516050.0 2521050.0 2464050 2441050.0 83 Style Rotation Justification X Justification Y : : : : 90 0.5 Feature Number ID or Value Coordinates (X,Y) Caption Style Rotation Justification X Justification Y : : : : : : : : 14 14 502650.0 @Thac Ba 90 0.5 Feature Number ID or Value Coordinates (X,Y) Caption Style Rotation Justification X Justification Y : : : : : : : : 15 15 526650.0 2389050.0 Lo@Vu Quang 90 0.5 Feature Number ID or Value Coordinates (X,Y) Caption Style Rotation Justification X Justification Y : : : : : : : : 16 16 545650.0 2348050.0 Lo@Viet Tri 90 0.5 Feature Number ID or Value Coordinates (X,Y) Caption Style Rotation Justification X : : : : : : : 17 17 251650.0 @Muong Te 90 Justification Y : 0.5 Feature Number ID or Value Coordinates (X,Y) Caption Style Rotation Justification X Justification Y : : : : : : : : 18 18 337650 2441050.0 @Lai Chau 90 0.5 Feature Number ID or Value Coordinates (X,Y) Caption Style Rotation Justification X Justification Y : : : : : : : : 19 19 377650 Ban Cung 90 0.5 Feature Number ID or Value Coordinates (X,Y) : 20 : 20 : 407650.0 2406050.0 2490050 2409050.0 2371050.0 84 Caption Style Rotation Justification X Justification Y : : : : : @Ta Bu 90 0.5 Vector Layer Name Vector Layer Type Reference System Reference Units Unit Distance ID/Value Type Number of Features : : : : : : : RAINGAUGE2002_NEW Text utm-48n m Integer 55 Feature Number ID or Value Coordinates (X,Y) Caption Style Rotation Justification X Justification Y : : : : : : : : 1 246111.861024 PacMa (Da) 90 0.5 Feature Number ID or Value Coordinates (X,Y) Caption Style Rotation Justification X Justification Y : : : : : : : : 2 276922.865923 MuongTe (Da) 90 0.5 Feature Number ID or Value Coordinates (X,Y) Caption Style Rotation Justification X Justification Y : : : : : : : : 3 343896.812438 TamDuong (Da) 90 0.5 Feature Number ID or Value Coordinates (X,Y) Caption Style Rotation Justification X Justification Y : : : : : : : : 4 318030.142797 SinHo (Da) 90 0.5 Feature Number ID or Value Coordinates (X,Y) Caption : : : : 5 330826.878313 PaTan (Da) Style Rotation Justification X Justification Y : : : : 90 0.5 B Raingauge stations 2503560.609169 2476864.291886 2479735.319627 2468943.745566 2538934.820948 85 Feature Number ID or Value Coordinates (X,Y) Caption Style Rotation Justification X Justification Y : : : : : : : : 6 310213.133802 NamGiang (Da) 90 0.5 Feature Number ID or Value Coordinates (X,Y) Caption Style Rotation Justification X Justification Y : : : : : : : : 7 250671.524285 NamPo (Da) 90 0.5 Feature Number ID or Value Coordinates (X,Y) Caption Style Rotation Justification X Justification Y : : : : : : : : 8 322619.741693 NamMuc (Da) 90 0.5 Feature Number ID or Value Coordinates (X,Y) Caption Style Rotation Justification X Justification Y : : : : : : : : 9 357520.433906 BinhLu (Da) 90 0.5 Feature Number ID or Value Coordinates (X,Y) Caption Style Rotation Justification X Justification Y : : : : : : : : 10 10 293455.589500 ThanUyen (Da) 90 0.5 Feature Number ID or Value Coordinates (X,Y) Caption Style Rotation Justification X Justification Y : : : : : : : : 11 11 401845.524521 2418372.058035 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hành hệ thống công trình phòng chống lũ cho đồng sông Hồng – sông Thái Bình Dự báo. .. HỌC CÔNG NGHỆ CẤP NHÀ NƯỚC Hợp tác nghiên cứu xây dựng công nghệ dự báo lũ trung hạn kết nối với công nghệ điều hành hệ thống công trình phòng chống lũ cho đồng sông Hồng – sông Thái Bình BÁO