Chapter Population Growth and Economic Development: Causes, Consequences, and Controversies Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley All rights reserved Estimated World Population Growth Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley All rights reserved 6-2 World Population Growth, 1750-2050 Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley All rights reserved 6-3 World Population Growth Rates and Doubling Times Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley All rights reserved 6-4 World Population Distribution by Region, 2003 and 2050 Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley All rights reserved 6-5 World Population Distribution Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley All rights reserved 6-6 Fertility Rate for Selected Countries 1970 and 2006 Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley All rights reserved 6-7 Population Pyramids • LDCs population pyramid is truly pyramid-shaped with 40% younger than 19 years and less than 5% over 65 Of the youth, billion are 19 and younger and 400 million between 15-19 • MDCs population structure is more like a cylinder with many middle-aged and elderly individuals Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley All rights reserved 6-8 Population Pyramids: Ethiopia vs U.S., 2005 Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley All rights reserved 6-9 Hidden Momentum of Population Growth • Family planning takes many years to achieve two-child family and eventually replacement fertility because today’s children are future parents • In Nigeria, If family planning began in 1990 • Two-child family may achieve in 2035 (45 years) • Replacement fertility would eventually reach in 2150 (115 years) Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley All rights reserved 6-10 The Malthusian Trap • Population grows at a geometric ratio (e.g., 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, etc.) • Food supply increases at an arithmetic ratio • Hence, hunger, starvation, and death shall follow • Remedy is to keep population growth in check (e.g., 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, etc.) Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley All rights reserved 6-15 The Malthusian Trap Income growth rate Growth rate (%) Growth B Population growth rate C Trap Trap A Growth Y0 Y1 Income per capita Y2 -1 © 2009 Pearson AddisonCopyright Wesley All rights reserved Y3 Y4 6-16 Criticism of The Malthusian Trap • Rapid income growth due to technological advancement • Greater food production due to land-intensive technology and application of modern farm inputs • Economic growth faster than population growth, resulting in the rise of per capita income over time Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley All rights reserved 6-17 Criticism of The Malthusian Trap Growth rate (%) Income growth rate Population growth rate -1 Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley All rights reserved Income per capita 6-18 Cross-National Evidence • Many LDCs have been able to lower population growth rate while increasing income per capita (e.g., China, Sri Lanka, Chile, Singapore) • Still, there are countries with low or even negative rate of economic growth, but high rate of population growth (e.g., Kenya Congo, Philippines, Colombia, Venezuela) Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley All rights reserved 6-19 Microeconomic Theory of Fertility Demand for Children Equation Cd = f (Y , Pc, Px, tx ), x = 1, , n Where Cd is the demand for surviving children Y is the level of household income Pc is the “net” price of children Px is price of all other goods tx is the tastes for goods relative to children Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley All rights reserved 6-20 Microeconomic Theory of Fertility Demand for Children Equation Cd = f (Y , Pc, Px, tx ), x = 1, , n Under neoclassical conditions, we would expect: ∂Cd >0 ∂Y ∂Cd >0 ∂Px ∂Cd