IMPACTS OF RCEP ON RICE EXPORT OF VIETNAM

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING FOREIGN TRADE UNIVERSITY DISSERTATION IMPACTS OF RCEP ON RICE EXPORT OF VIETNAM Major: Master of International Trade Policy and Law Trịnh Thị Tuyết Nhung Ha Noi - 2016 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING FOREIGN TRADE UNIVERSITY DISSERTATION Impacts of RCEP on Rice Export of Vietnam Major: Master of International Trade Policy and Law Full Name: Trịnh Thị Tuyết Nhung SUPERVISOR: Assoc Prof Dr Từ Thúy Anh Ha Noi - 2016 DECLARATION I, Trịnh Thị Tuyết Nhung, hereby declare that the work presented herein is the original work done by me and has not been published or submitted elsewhere to the best of my knowledge Any literature date or work done by another and cited within this thesis has given due acknowledgement and listed in the reference section The work was done under the guidance of Assoc Prof Dr Từ Thúy Anh, at the Foreign Trade University, Hanoi Hanoi, 30 November 2016 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my deep gratitude to Assoc Prof Dr Từ Thúy Anh , my research supervisor for her professional guidance, valuable support and useful recommendations of this research work My grateful thanks are also extended to Ms Lê Thanh Thủy and Ms Nguyễn Thu Hà for their support to keep my progress on schedule I would also like to thank other lectures of MITPL program for their sharing of knowledge that very useful in my research Finally, I wish to thank my family, my friends for their support and encouragement throughout my study TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES LIST OF TABLES LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW ON RCEP AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK TO ASSESS IMPACT OF RCEP ON RICE EXPORT OF VIETNAM 13 1.1 Overview on RCEP 13 1.1.1 The context 13 1.1.2 The issues of the RCEP 15 1.1.2.1 Market accesses issues 16 1.1.2.2 Other matters in the RCEP 18 1.2 Theoretical framework to assess impact of RCEP on rice export of Vietnam 22 1.2.1 Approach 22 1.2.2 The effects of removing tariff on international trade 22 1.2.3 Research Methods 25 1.2.3.1 Partial equilibrium method (SMART model) 25 1.2.3.2 Method identifying factors affecting rice production and characteristic of an industry 26 1.2.3.3 Synthesis method, comparison of data 27 1.2.3.4 Classification method 27 1.2.3.5 SWOT analysis method 27 CHAPTER 2: IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF RCEP ON RICE EXPORT OF VIETNAM 29 2.1 Current situation of RCEP rice export market 29 2.1.1 The role of RCEP members with rice export market 29 2.1.1.1 The importers 29 2.1.1.2 The exporters 30 2.1.2 Trade barriers of six important importers in RCEP area 31 2.1.3 Situation of Vietnamese rice exports in recent years 39 2.1.4 The scale of RCEP members‟ demand with rice export of Vietnam 41 2.2 Impact assessment results of RCEP on rice export of Vietnam 45 2.2.1 Increasing quantity of Vietnam‟s rice export 45 2.2.1.1 China and the Philippines, two largest rice importers 47 2.2.1.2 Japan and Korea, two most restriction countries 49 2.2.1.3 Indonesia and Malaysia 52 2.2.2 The rise of competition in the area 56 2.2.2.1 Rice quality 60 2.2.2.1.1 Milling rate 60 2.2.2.1.2 Diversity of rice types 61 2.2.2.2 Brand identity 64 2.2.2.3 Production ability 66 2.2.3 Attract FDI – big challenge 70 2.2.4 Other factors relevant to impact - assessment of RCEP on rice export of Vietnam 76 CHAPTER 3: RECOMMENDATIONS TOWARD RICE EXPORT OF VIETNAM TO RCEP 78 3.1.Create and improve the brand of Vietnamese rice 78 3.2 Improve rice quality 82 3.2.1 Choose the rice variety 82 3.2.2 Make regulations in the process of taking care of rice variety, guidance for farmers 84 3.2.3 Improve division of grain production 86 3.2.4 Improve science, techniques 88 3.2.5 Improve land quality, limit the impact of climate change 89 3.3 Attract FDI in the rice industry 90 3.3.1 Make sustainable development strategy for rice industry in long term 90 3.3.2 Create big production area, improve infrastructure in the rice industry 91 3.3.3 Improve labour quality 91 3.3.4 Restrict corruption and non-transparency in FDI project 92 3.4 Build relevant strategy for each market 93 3.4.1 China and the Philippines 93 3.4.2 Japan, South Korea 94 3.4.3 Indonesia, Malaysia 95 4.2.5 Take advantage of the incentives on Vietnam in RCEP 95 CONCLUSION 96 REFERENCES 98 LIST OF FIGURES Figure Impact of joining RCEP on Vietnam‟s rice export 23 Figure Impact of big scale demand on rice export 24 Figure Rice imports from Vietnam to Japan 37 Figure Rice exports of Vietnam in period 2007 – 2015 39 Figure Vietnamese rice price from Jan-16 to Oct-16 (USD/ton, FOB) 40 Figure Main exporting markets of Vietnam's rice in 2015 42 Figure Rice import from Vietnam, selected countries 43 Figure Rice imports of Malaysia by exporting country in 2015 55 Figure Rice export of India, Thailand and Vietnam from 2007 to 2015 57 Figure 10 Rice (HS 1006): Major global trade flows, 2011–13 (1,000 mt) 58 Figure 11 Rice price of high quality rice (5% rice broken) 63 Figure 12 Rice price of low quality rice 64 Figure 13 Yield of rice production, selected countries, 2015 68 Figure 14 Rice production area of Vietnam 73 Figure 15 Rice production area of Thailand 74 LIST OF TABLES Table Tariff elimination coverage by country under some ASEAN+1 FTA (%) 17 Table Ranking of RCEP members as rice importer on Global rice importer 29 Table Top ten rice exporters in the world, 2015 31 Table Tariff on rice import, selected countries 33 Table Non-tariff barriers, selected countries 34 Table Matrix level of restriction 38 Table The rice export changes of Vietnam due to RCEP 45 Table Rice exports from RCEP members to China change due to RCEP 47 Table Rice exports from RCEP members to the Philippines change due to RCEP 48 Table 10 Rice exports from RCEP members to Japan change due to RCEP 49 Table 11 Rice exports from RCEP members to Korea changes due to RCEP 50 Table 12 Rice exports from RCEP members to Indonesia change due to RCEP 52 Table 13 Rice exports from RCEP members to Malaysia change due to RCEP 53 Table 15 Milling rate, selected countries 60 Table 16 Milling Rate, selected countries, period 2006 - 2015 61 Table 17 Export price quotes 61 Table 18 Area Harvested of India, Thailand and Vietnam 66 Table 19 Rough Production, selected countries, 2015 69 Table 20 Milled Production, selected countries, 2015 69 Table 21 Top five foreign investors of Vietnam 70 Table 22 Foreign direct investment projects licensed by kinds of economic activity 71 Table 23 SWOT analysis 75 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AANZFTA ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Area Agreement ACFTA ASEAN-China Free Trade Area AITIG ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement AJCEP ASEAN-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement AKFTA ASEAN-Korea Free Trade Area ASEAN Association of South East Asian Nations COMTRADE Statistics about trade of United Nations ERS Economic Research Service EU European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FTA Free Trade Agreement GDP Gross Domestic Product MUTRAP European Trade Policy and Investment Support Project PSD online Production, Supply and Distribution Online RCEP Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership RCEP area The area includes countries participate RCEP ROO Rules of Origin SMART Software for Market Analysis and Restrictions on Trade SPS Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures SWOT Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats TBT Technical Barriers to Trade TPP Trans-Pacific Partnership TRAINS Trade Analysis and Information System U.S The United States of America USD US dollar USDA United States Department of Agriculture USITC United States International Trade Commission WITS World Integrated Trade Solution WTO World Trade Organization 86 Box Rice produced process Source: (USITC 2015) 3.2.3 Improve division of grain production Like the other FTAs, RCEP will set off demands for the traceability of goods, particularly agricultural commodities like rice However, the traders make the purchase of rice from various sources and then mix them up, so the traceability is very low One of the causes leading to indiscriminate purchase status is that Vietnamese farmers often choose the rice variety with high price to produce, but they not care about whether 87 that rice variety conform with local natural conditions or not, and what is the demand of the market Thus, when the need for the purchase of rice arises, traders must buy from many sources and in many different localities, so they are not aware of the origin of the rice This is also the reason why Vietnamese rice is underestimated and faces many difficulties when exported to countries with high standards such as Japan, South Korea The improvement of division of grain production is the essential requirement for easy management and traceability of the goods Moreover, it also makes the big production area that is useful when apply the modern technology To it efficiently, the regulatory and management role of government is very important In addition to focusing on the production line of products with high quality brands (aromatic rice line), Vietnam also still have to maintain the production line and lower - medium quality rice to meet the demands of the current market, where the taste of the people does not require so high However, if farmers not desire to cultivate the kind of low-price rise, they should be given the high yield rice varieties so as to their total income is guaranteed Step 1: Research natural conditions and market demand for rice From which type of rice would produce where, how much amount of rice would produce? Step 2: Division of production The division of production to make sure the scale is large enough to be able to apply modern farming techniques and material areas are concentrated; No division into the too small plots Step 3: Provide confirmed rice seed suitable to each region of production Although the medium quality rice line still have to use the confirmed rice seed to ensure the quality of the rice is evenly, not be mixed Step 4: Confirm the origin The origin of product of finished rice must be confirmed and the place of manufacture must be stated prior to coming into trade Rice from the different production materials must be stamped to different origins could easy traceability 88 To increase the efficiency of the division of production, recommend the establishment of farmers‟ Association in the local area The farmers' Association is responsible for purchasing products directly from farmers, confirming the origin (place of manufacture, the manufacturer) When traders need to purchase rice will come directly to this Association to buy rice So, farmers not have to worry about the output, businesses are also assured about the source of rice and it is easy traceability Then, the farmers will be assured to follow Government's division 3.2.4 Improve science, techniques Backward production technique is one of the factors attributable to the low quality of Vietnamese rice As mentioned in Section 3.2.1.1, milling rate of Vietnamese rice is the lowest among the famous rice exporting countries in the world The large amount of rice broken in the manufacturing process led to higher rice yields, but the total quantity of rice is much lower In addition, due to backward farming techniques, it is very difficult to control the quality of rice produced Rice production also has inconsistent quality, due to the traditional production of the farmers does not ensure the required quality in the production of rice Below are some of the recommendations to reform the science and techniques in rice production to be effective: - Having to choose technique conform to characteristic of rice production with reasonable costs and can apply on a wide scale - In addition to manufacturing techniques; also need to develop technology for preservation, packaging, and transportation - Science and technique innovation in agriculture are based on production scale big enough to maybe put the modern production line, automatic into the production process (The improvement of division of grain production in Section 3.2.3 is an important basis to be able to apply modern techniques into rice production) 89 - Farmers must also be trained to be able to use the modern equipment proficient and get used to producing by the method of modern production technique - In addition, one of the most important factors is sufficient capital to improve the science, techniques synchronously The farmers would be able to afford to pay for these modern machines Consequently, the financial solution is an urgent requirement Using FDI or ODA sources in this case is a smart choice - Finally, the science and technique innovation to ensure no pollution of the environment or a negative effect on the soil environment and natural resources 3.2.5 Improve land quality, limit the impact of climate change Natural resource is the competitive advantage of Vietnamese rice today However, the increase in the number of crops and use of pesticides indiscriminately causing reducing fertility, polluting water sources; this fact indirectly reduces rice quality Therefore, to provide sustainable development and ensure the quality of rice, improvement of land quality is an urgent need Firstly, the number of crops should be reduced so that the land is not overloaded Secondly the implementation of measures to improve soil and remove drug residues in the soil in stock from the previous season is crucial Researching ways to increase the fertility of the soil in an active way by scientific methods rather than relying on the silt of rivers is another solution Ensuring water security service of the production is also very important Vietnam is vulnerable to climate change, such as in Ca Mau province, 15 meter depth transgression every year, Ca Mau might lose 56% of the total area square in 2100 (Minh 2016) The storm surges with high intensity caused damage to rice production Sea water intrusion, changing weather and irregular seasonal are affecting farming and the quality of rice Therefore, limiting its impact on rice production is an important job to now To this, some important action have to be conducted: 90 Firstly, reduce environmental pollution; reduce the negative impact on the environment At the same time, improve the quality of the environment Secondly, assess the impact of climate change on rice production The assessment is specific to each locality, each type of rice Thirdly, conduct measures to deal with climate change Technical innovations to reduce the dependence of rice production on climate weather conditions 3.3 Attract FDI in the rice industry Attracting FDI is one of the solutions to improve the infrastructure of the Vietnamese rice industry As referred in chapter 3, the reasons why the rice industry of Vietnam is unattractive are the characteristic of this industry and the inconsequential policy of government Therefore, to attract FDI into rice industry, measures should be made to change these factors 3.3.1 Make sustainable development strategy for rice industry in long term The development strategy of an industry is an essential basis that helps foreign investors makes a decision whether or not to invest in this industry Nevertheless, the Vietnamese rice industry still lacks of sustainable development strategy in the long term The fact that Vietnam does not have a clearly, specific orientation for rice industry make foreign investors not believe in the development in the future of this industry At the same times, this face might also increase risk for investors because they cannot predict the change in policies of government for this industry Therefore, the first slot in to - list right now of Vietnamese government is building a sustainable development strategy for rice industry in the long term This strategy should include development orientation, clearly targets, specific schedule and fields of industry that should encourage for foreign investors to invest in Basing on that, investors can easily plan for their investments project 91 3.3.2 Create big production area, improve infrastructure in the rice industry The characteristics of FDI projects are big scale and huge capacity Therefore, to ensure that these projects can operate in an effective way, Vietnam needs to create production areas with big enough scale For this reason, the production partition logically will create opportunities for the rice production industry to attract large FDI In addition, one of the most important factors to attract FDI is improving infrastructure to upgrade production conditions However, in many years, Vietnam just focuses on improving infrastructure for the industry sector and in urban area Vietnamese government lost its attention on the agriculture sector and rural sector despite of the fact that Vietnamese rice industry, which developed and exported to foreign countries in decades, has enormous contributions to the Vietnamese economy Therefore, from now on, Vietnamese government need to set up policies to improve infrastructure of agriculture sector to fit in with the rice industry production level present and its potential in the future Thereby, Vietnam can attract more FDI inflow to the rice industry 3.3.3 Improve labour quality To enhance the attractiveness of labour in the rice industry to foreign investors, Vietnamese government needs to set up an education program for staff working on the FDI project This program includes training about agricultural knowledge, international language and professional ethics Besides, training for local labour is also necessary, especially, vocational training system in rural areas – the main production of the rice industry They need knowledge in both economic and technological perspective In addition, this is necessary, making a chance for the foreign investor to direct contact with the farmer who is the main producers of rice industry This chance will help they understand each other, through which, finding the effective method to work together Provide information for farmers about FDI project and change the awareness in production with modern methods The farmers who work on FDI project need to 92 engage their responsibility to ensure the product quality for an investor and building the reputation of Vietnamese industry Because of the split of production area, the labour does not demonstrate in the same area Therefore, it is difficult to training for all farmers at the same time To overcome this situation, the role of local government and public organization is significant Their responsibility is managing farmers who work on FDI project, making course for training farmers and connecting between them and investor To that, improving the quality of official is the first step 3.3.4 Restrict corruption and non-transparency in FDI project Rice industry has high natural risk more than other industry Therefore, other risks are needed to restrict at maximum level Corruption and non-transparency is two types of risk that foreign investor most afraid of Especially, Vietnam is one of the most corrupted countries in the world Corruption perspective index (CPI) of Vietnam from 2012 to 2015 scored 31and it was ranked 112 in the world (CPI 2015) Therefore, to attract FDI, restrict corruption and non-transparency in FDI project is very important for Vietnam 3.3.5 Encourage policy for foreign investors that invest in the rice industry Encouraging policy support for rice industry and comply with provisions of the WTO and other FTAs Some suggestions are: - Simple, fast investment procedures - Tax incentives for FDI companies in rice industry - Create the insurance fund to offset losses in case of plague, market fluctuations - Support for FDI companies that invest in technology research and infrastructure of rice industry such as financial support, fast and convenient procedure 93 - Increase research on climate change and restrict its impact on rice production Improve the effect of weather forecast activity to help farmer actively prevent the negative impact of bad weather on production This policy will limit the natural risk of the rice industry 3.4 Build relevant strategy for each market As discussed in Chapter 3, rice importing market of Vietnam has its own characteristics It is needed to have separate strategies suitable for each market in order to enhance export growth of Vietnamese rice Some recommendations for each type of market are: 3.4.1 China and the Philippines Features: - The most import markets of Vietnamese rice export - They share a boundary on land, and at sea with Vietnam - The political relationship is complicated by the South China Sea issue - China is an unpredictable market, imported rice by the unofficial way with large number - The Philippines is an ASEAN Member State Strategy: - Promote the brand in these two markets, trying to maintain the market by keeping orders with these countries - Take advantage of a close relationship with the Philippines in the ASEAN - Communicating to restrict the export of rice traders at the boundary by the unofficial way because it is an act of tax evasion and is prohibited under Chinese law Export rice by the unofficial way at the boundary is exported without export 94 contracts should be a very high risk Moreover, it brings a bad reputation for the Vietnamese rice - Continue to maintain cooperative relations with China to maintain the market, but should reduce dependence on the Chinese market by expanding import market to other potential countries - Caution in RCEP negotiations, the issues related to China must consider carefully before making a decision 3.4.2 Japan, South Korea Features: - They are countries with large demand for imported rice, are a potential market for Vietnam's rice exports - Standards for imported rice are very high, complex and tight processes - The level of protection for agriculture is very high - They are countries with large FDI flow into Vietnam in recent years - They are the countries with science, technology are developed Strategy: - Ensure quality of rice; tight and strict control the quality of rice export - Invite expert from these countries for technical support for Vietnam's rice industry, research support for limiting the impact of climate change on Vietnam's rice industry - In the process of negotiating RCEP, try to reduce the barriers on imported rice - Use FDI source from these countries, focusing on the agricultural sector, especially rice industry 95 - Promoting the brand, particularly focusing on the quality of Vietnamese rice is guaranteed 3.4.3 Indonesia, Malaysia Features: - The large rice importer of Vietnam - The level of protection is not high - They are countries with many Muslims Strategy: - Maintain close relationships with two these countries, to maintain and expand market share - Research eating habits of Muslims to provide rice products suitable with their habits about quality, taste and packaging 4.2.5 Take advantage of the incentives on Vietnam in RCEP Vietnam as a least developed country in the region will have some incentives in RCEP Also, RCEP also support less developed countries in technique, technology transfer to better integration Vietnam needs to take advantage of these incentives to raise the level and efficiency of rice production Some things to are: - Recommending the countries have high standards for rice such as Japan, South Korea supports the production technique for Vietnamese rice industry to be able to meet their requirements, while improving the production level of Vietnam - Inviting the experts from the member of the RCEP in the form of professional support to improve the ability to assess the impact of climate change and restrict this impact on rice production in Vietnam - Attracting investment in the infrastructure sector and the development of science and technology for the rice industry 96 CONCLUSION In summary, this study assessed the impacts of the RCEP on rice exports of Vietnam In particularly, RCEP helps increase the number of Vietnam's rice exports, with an increase of over 245 million dollars (19.34%), including more than 201 million dollars due to trade creation China and the Philippines are the countries with the highest growth rate in rice import from Vietnam In addition to that, Vietnam is also benefited from the Agreement by expanding market share in great potential export markets such as Japan and Korea The amount of Vietnam‟s rice imported in these two countries is about 26 million and 15 million dollars respectively Moreover, RCEP increases the level of competition in the export of rice in the region It is known that, the two main rivals of Vietnam in the region due to RCEP are India and Thailand, but Vietnam still reveals many weaknesses compared to the others that make it loses the market share on rice section, especially in terms of quality Last but not least, RCEP creates opportunities to attract FDI for the rice industry, but Vietnamese rice will face many difficulties in the process of attracting investment The reasons are the specificities of the rice industry and the illegitimate policies of the Vietnam government According to this assessment, some recommendations of the authors for the Government of Vietnam are: building Vietnamese rice brand with a clear process; improving the quality of Vietnamese rice by the impact of the factors affecting rice production; changing policies to attract investment; taking advantage of the incentives on Vietnam in RCEP However, this research 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Trade Solution, Custom Query, SMART, https://wits.worldbank.org ... and long-term strategies for Vietnamese rice industry 29 CHAPTER 2: IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF RCEP ON RICE EXPORT OF VIETNAM 2.1 Current situation of RCEP rice export market 2.1.1 The role of RCEP. .. assessment of RCEP on rice export of Vietnam 76 CHAPTER 3: RECOMMENDATIONS TOWARD RICE EXPORT OF VIETNAM TO RCEP 78 3.1.Create and improve the brand of Vietnamese rice. .. of Vietnam as a rice exporter RCEP impacts? ?? evaluation based on the benefits and risks it brings to Vietnamese rice exports To assess the impact of the RCEP on rice export of Vietnam, this study