Kaplan China Intl Development Syllabus Summer 14

SCHOOL OF ADVANCED INTERNATIONAL STUDIES Johns Hopkins University CHINA AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT: RETHINKING ECONOMIC REFORM AND TRANSFORMATION Professor Seth Kaplan Office hours by appointment Email: seth@sethkaplan.org Summer 2014 600-800PM* COURSE DESCRIPTION China’s success since the late 1970s challenges Western thinking about development in a number of significant ways Yet, the development field rarely attempts to learn from the country’s experience This course will examine why China has succeeded in transforming its economy when most developing countries have not, and explicitly seek lessons from the comparison It highlights a number of specific strategies that guided China’s approach to development and modernization, and shows how these differ from Western orthodoxy Readings and lectures combine material on China with material from the development field Where relevant, the course will bring in readings about other countries in East Asia that have shared a similar record of achievement The course won’t whitewash the difficulties the Chinese model currently faces, but will maintain a focus on its three decades of success The course will leverage the instructors’ seven years experience running businesses in China (and eleven years working in Asia) and his intimate knowledge of the country and society in offering a unique perspective on its lessons for the rest of the developing world His experience working on fragile states issues will provide ample material for comparison The course will appeal to two distinct audiences: 1) anyone interested in development and economic transformation and why most of the developing world has failed to achieve these things; 2) people who want to better understand contemporary China and how it has achieved its great gains since the late 1970s Understanding China and how countries modernize is invaluable for a wide range of careers, whether working for international agencies, multilateral organizations, non-profit organizations, corporations, or governments COURSE WORK All students will be a “reader” responsible for part of the homework reading one time during the course During their assigned week, readers will be expected to give a 15-20 minute presentation on the indicated readings and lead a 10-15 minute question and answer session (30 minutes total time) that engages and involves their colleagues Readers should come prepared with three or four discussion questions I will help you develop a sound agenda if necessary, and will act as co-discussion leader in class if requested All students will be expected to come to each session with their own questions based on the reading and knowledge about different countries around the world They should actively engage in class discussions and raise their own issues Participation is highly valued Two classes are set aside towards the end of the term for student presentations Assuming the class size is not too large, each student will make a 15-20 minutes presentation of a topic from his or her research paper during one of these classes This will be followed by questions and discussion (30 minutes total time) If necessary, a number of the last few classes may be extended up to 30 minutes to accommodate all presentations (* in such cases, the class may end as late as 830pm) Each student must write an original research paper on an approved topic related to China or inclusive development Final papers must be 6000 to 8000 words long, submitted as hard copies, and use 12 point Times Roman fonts, normal margins, single-spacing for the lines, but six point spacing after each paragraph Footnotes should be cited according to http://www.oberlin.edu/faculty/svolk/citation.htm Papers must be supported by proper attribution of sources In developing the papers, you must observe the following schedule: 1) Identification of paper topic and one paragraph statement of thesis (which require approval) are due no later than the end of class #7; 2) An outline, including major organizational plan of paper and bibliography of primary sources, are due no later than the end of class #10; 3) Papers are due on the final exam date There will be a take home midterm exam, but no final exam Grading will be based on the midterm (15%), reader’s presentation (15%), paper presentation (15%), paper (40%), and class participation (15%) The midterm will be evaluated based on (in order or importance): 1) how well the student makes use of the concepts learned in class and the readings; 2) the quality of the argument; 3) the quality of the writing The final paper will be evaluated based on (in order or importance): 1) the quality of the argument; 2) the quality of the research; 3) the ability to make use of the concepts learned in class and the readings; 4) the quality of the writing Students are encouraged to ask the instructor if any of this is unclear Late papers will be penalized a grade increment (e.g A- to B+) per day A failure to attribute sources will have adverse consequences on the grade of the paper HONOR CODE Enrollment at SAIS obligates each student to conduct all activities in accordance with the rules and spirit of the school’s Honor Code The Honor Code governs student conduct at SAIS It covers all activities in which students present information as their own, including written papers, examinations, oral presentations and materials submitted to potential employers or other educational institutions It requires that students be truthful and exercise integrity and honesty in their dealings with others, both inside SAIS and in the larger community While the Honor code goes well beyond plagiarism, it is important that each student understand what is and what is not plagiarism The Turnitin software is available to faculty in detecting plagiarism Plagiarism will definitely result in failure of the paper or exam and may result in failing the course depending on the judgment of the professor REQUIRED READING Seth Kaplan, Betrayed: Politics, Power, and Prosperity (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2013) Barry Naughton, Growing Out of the Plan: Chinese Economic Reform, 1978-1993 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995) Fragile States Resource Center http://www.fragilestates.org/ SUPPLEMENTAL READING Seth Kaplan, Fixing Fragile States: A New Paradigm for Development (Westport, CT: Praeger Security International, 2008) Barry Naughton, The Chinese Economy: Transitions and Growth (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2007) World Bank, The East Asian Miracle: Economic Growth and Public Policy (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1993) Henry Rowen (ed.), Behind East Asian Growth: The Political and Social Foundations of Prosperity (New York: Routledge, 1998) China-DAC Study Group, “Economic Transformation and Poverty Reduction: How It Happened in China, Helping it Happen in Africa,” Volume One: Main Findings and Policy Implications (Paris: OECD, 2011) Robert Wade, Governing the Market: Economic Theory and the Role of Government in East Asian Industrialization (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2004) Douglass North, John Wallis, Steven Webb, and Barry Weingast (ed.), In the Shadow of Violence (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013) Contemporary popular nonfiction books on China: http://www.chinalawblog.com/2013/02/a-new-china-book-list.html Contemporary Chinese novels: http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2012/10/15/found-in-translation-five-chinese-booksyou-should-read/ Wall Street Journal China Real Time http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/ SCHEDULE Week Introduction Required Readings (about 150 pages): • Michael Elliott, “Thirty Years After Deng: The Man Who Changed China,” Time, December 10, 2008, http://content.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1865539,00.html#ixzz2oWXfO ULE • Damien Ma, “After 20 Years of 'Peaceful Evolution,' China Faces Another Historic Moment,” The Atlantic, January 23, 2012, www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/01/after-20-years-of-peacefulevolution-china-faces-another-historic-moment/251764/ • James Fallows, “China Makes, The World Takes,” The Atlantic, July/August 2007, http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2007/07/china-makes-theworld-takes/305987/ • “Deng’s Southern Tour,” Special Coverage, Global Times (China), January 2012, http://www.globaltimes.cn/SPECIALCOVERAGE/Dengssoutherntour.aspx • Loren Brandt and Thomas Rawski, “China’s Great Economic Transformation,” in China’s Great Economic Transformation, ed Brandt and Rawski (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008), 1-8 • Barry Naughton, Growing Out of the Plan: Chinese Economic Reform, 19781993 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995), 26-55, 59-64, and 94-96 • Barry Naughton, The Chinese Economy: Transitions and Growth (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2007), 3-12, 17-30, and 79-83 [55-79 optional] • Chenggang Xu, “The Fundamental Institutions of China’s Reforms and Development,” Journal of Economic Literature 49 no (2011): 1076-1081 • Yingyi Qian, “How Reform Worked in China,” William Davidson Working Paper no 473, The William Davidson Institute, University of Michigan Business School, June 2002, 1-7, http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/39858/wp473.pdf • Douglass North, John Wallis, Steven Webb and Barry Weingast, “Limited Access Orders in the Developing World: A New Approach to the Problems of Development”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper #4359, September 2007, 2-44 (double spaced) • Samuel Huntington, Political Order in Changing Societies (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1968), 1-12 and 28-39 • Seth Kaplan, Betrayed: Politics, Power, and Prosperity (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2013), chapter Supplemental Readings (to better understand the Chinese political system) • Susan Lawrence, Understanding China’s Political System (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 2013) Questions: • How does China’s performance compare to other developing countries since the late 1970s? • • • • • How did China’s situation in the late 1970s compare to other developing countries? What led China’s leaders to embark on reform? What was the role of leadership? Does China follow the East Asian Model? How does China’s institutions compare with other developing countries? How does China’s rise challenge development orthodoxy? Week Aim for economic transformation and inclusive growth Required Readings (about 145 pages): • Seth Kaplan, Betrayed: Politics, Power, and Prosperity (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2013), chapters and • World Bank, The East Asian Miracle: Economic Growth and Public Policy (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1993), 1-48 and Box 1.3 (page 59) • Jose Edgardo Campos and Hilton Root, The Key to the Asian Miracle: Making Shared Growth Credible (Washington: The Brookings Institution, 1996), 50-75 • “Economic Transformation and Development,” Economics and Private Sector PEAKS e-bulletin, December 2013, http://us3.campaign-archive2.com/? u=18393a2d78fa6e1a10fbbab34&id=969832be54 • Dirk Willem te Velde, “Shifting the Development Debate to Jobs, Productivity Change and Structural Transformation,” Overseas Development Institute Blog, March 18, 2013, http://www.odi.org.uk/opinion/7322-shifting-developmentdebate-jobs-productivity-change-structural-transformation • Dani Rodrik “Africa’s Structural Transformation Challenge,” Project Syndicate, December 12, 2013, http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/dani-rodrikshows-why-sub-saharan-africa-s-impressive-economic-performance-is-notsustainable • Richard Dowden, “Africa’s Rising Rage: The Middle Classes Call for Revolution,” African Arguments, February 7, 2012, http://africanarguments.org/2013/02/07/africa%E2%80%99s-rising-rage-themiddle-classes-call-for-revolution-%E2%80%93-by-richard-dowden/ • African Center for Economic Transformation, “Growing Rapidly—Transforming Slowly,” Preview of the 2013 African Transformation Report (Accra, Ghana: ACET, 2013), http://www.thebrokeronline.eu/content/download/56269/504798/version/1/file/A CET+Africa+Transformation+combined+low-res+0524.pdf • “The Service Elevator: Can Poor Countries Leapfrog Manufacturing and Grow Rich on Services?, Economist, May 19, 2011, http://www.economist.com/node/18712351 • “India’s Demographic Challenge: Wasting Time,” Economist, May 11, 2013, http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21577373-india-will-soon-have-fifthworlds-working-age-population-it-urgently-needs-provide • Victor Mallet, “India’s Growth Hides Stagnant Jobs Market,” Financial Times, November 29, 2012 • Chandrahas Choudhury, “India's Economy Leaves Job Growth in the Dust,” Bloomberg World View, March 14, 2013, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013- • • 03-14/india-s-economy-leaves-job-growth-in-the-dust.html Kristin Lord, “A New Millennium of Knowledge? The Arab Human Development Report on Building a Knowledge Society, Five Years On,” Executive Summary (Washington: The Brookings Institution, 2008), http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2008/04/arab-human-developmentlord Adeel Malik and Bassem Awadallah, “The Economics of the Arab Spring,” Middle East Insights 46 (Singapore: Middle East Institute, November 23, 2011), http://www.mei.nus.edu.sg/publications/mei-insights/the-economics-of-the-arabspring Questions: • What is economic (or structural) transformation? • What is the role of manufacturing in transformation? • What is the relationship between transformation and the state? • How does a country’s ability to transform affect development outcomes? • Can we diagnose why most developing countries have failed achieve transformation on anywhere near the scale of East Asia countries? • What are the political consequences of a failure to transform? Week Leverage social cohesion and/or ideology to advance state building Required Readings (about 150 pages and one video): • Martin Jacques, “Civilization State Versus Nation-State,” Süddeutsche Zeitung, January 15, 2011, http://www.martinjacques.com/articles/civilization-stateversus-nation-state-2/ • Martin Jacques, “Understanding the Rise of China,” TED Talk, TED Salon, London, October 2010, http://www.ted.com/talks/martin_jacques_understanding_the_rise_of_china.html • Jerry Muller, “Us and Them: The Enduring Power of Ethnic Nationalism,” Foreign Affairs 87, no (March/April, 2008): 18-35 • Henry Rowen, “The Political and Social Foundations of the Rise of East Asia: An Overview,” in Behind East Asian Growth: The Political and Social Foundations of Prosperity, ed Rowen (New York: Routledge, 1998), 1-31 and 341-47 • Seth Kaplan, Betrayed: Politics, Power, and Prosperity (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2013), chapter • William Easterly, Jozef Ritzen, and Michael Woolcock, Social Cohesion, Institutions, and Growth, Working Paper No 94 (Washington, DC: Center for Global Development, August 2006), 1-16 • Laura Routley, “Developmental States: A Review of the Literature,” ESID Working Paper no (Manchester, UK: Effective States and Inclusive Development Research Centre, February 2012), 4-38 • Seth Kaplan, Fixing Fragile States: A New Paradigm for Development (Westport, CT: Praeger Security International, 2008), chapter • Jeffrey Herbst and Greg Mills, “Introduction: Managing Fault Lines in the Twenty-first Century” in On the Fault Line: Managing Tensions and Divisions • • • • Within Societies, ed Herbst, Terence McNamee, and Mills (London: Profile Books, 2012), 1-16 Seth Kaplan, “Development with Chinese Characteristics: Ten Lessons for Policymakers,” presented at “The State in Asia: Power, Citizenship and the Rule of Law” conference organized by Leiden University (Leiden, Netherlands, December 12-14, 2012), introduction and lesson #8 Jean Dreze and Amartya Sen, An Uncertain Glory: India and its Contradictions (London: Allen Lane, 2013), excerpt, http://www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=16791 Seth Kaplan, “Horizontal Versus Vertical Social Cohesion: Why the Differences Matter,” Fragile States Resource Center, March 12, 2012, http://www.fragilestates.org/2012/03/12/horizontal-versus-vertical-socialcohesion-why-the-differences-matter/ Harith Hasan al-Qarawee, “Iraq — Exclusionary State Building Naturally Leads to Violence,” Fragile States Resource Center, July 4, 2013, http://www.fragilestates.org/2013/07/04/iraq-exclusionary-state-buildingnaturally-leads-to-violence/ Readers: Discuss how the past informs how leaders behave Questions • What is the connection between nationalism and development? • How is China similar to and different from other nation states? • What is a developmental state? • How does ideology affect the decisions of leaders? • How stark social divisions hold back development and inclusive growth? • What affects how elites and leaders think about development? Week Create a stable political coalition committed to development Required Readings (about 150 pages): • Jacques deLisle, “Politics and Governance in the People’s Republic of China: From “A Revolution is not a Dinner Party” to “To Get Rich is Glorious” to Creating a “Harmonious Society,” Footnotes 16, no 7, Foreign Policy Research Institute, August 2011, http://www.fpri.org/footnotes/1607.201108.delisle.china.html (11 pages) • Andrew Walder, “The Party Elite and China’s Trajectory of Change,” in Kjeld Erik Brodsgaard and Zheng Yongnian (ed.), The Chinese Communist Party in Reform (New York: Routledge, 2006), 15-31 • Reza Hasmath, “The Secret to the Chinese Communist Party’s Success,” The Conversation, November 13, 2012, http://theconversation.com/the-secret-to-thechinese-communist-partys-success-10675 • Minxin Pei, “How Beijing Kept its Grip on Power,” Financial Times, June 2, 2009, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c815b624-4fa9-11de-a69200144feabdc0.html#axzz2oWCFtIvx • Peter Lewis, Growing Apart: Oil, Politics, and Economic Change in Indonesia and Nigeria (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2007), 1-21 [worth • • • • • • • • reading: 28, 42-53, 77-85, 256-67, and 268-95] Seth Kaplan, Fixing Fragile States: A New Paradigm for Development (Westport, CT: Praeger Security International, 2008), chapter Lindsay Whitfield and Ole Therkildsen, “What Drives States to Support the Development of Productive Sectors? Strategies Ruling Elites Pursue for Political Survival and Their Policy Implications,” Danish Institute for International Studies Working Paper 2011:15 (Copenhagen: Elites, Production and Poverty Program, September 2011), 7-30 “Coalition Building in a Divided Society: Bihar State, India, 2005-2009,” Rohan Mukherjee, ISS-Princeton, July 2010, http://www.princeton.edu/successfulsocieties/content/focusareas/DC/policynotes/ view.xml?id=128, 1-10 Tim Kelsall and David Booth, Developmental Patrimonialism? Questioning the Orthodoxy on Political Governance and Economic Progress in Africa, Working Paper No (London: Africa Power and Politics Programme, July 2010), 1-27 Gareth Williams, Alex Duncan, Pierre Landell-Mills, and Sue Unsworth, “Politics and Growth,” Development Policy Review 29 no S1 (January 2011), S29-53 Adrian Leftwich, “Thinking and Working Politically: What Does It Mean, Why Is It Important and How Do You Do It?,” in Politics, Leadership, and Coalitions in Development: Policy Implications of the DLP Research Evidence, Developmental Leadership Program Research and Policy Workshop Background Papers, Frankfurt, Germany, March 2011, 3-11 David Booth, APPP Policy Brief, Development as a Collective Action Problem: Addressing the Real Challenges of African Governance, October 2012, 1-4 Seth Kaplan, “Creating Legitimacy in Weak States: Inclusiveness and Impartiality,” Fragile States Resource Center, October 4, 2013, http://www.fragilestates.org/2013/10/04/creating-legitimacy-in-weak-statesinclusiveness-and-impartiality/ Readers: Discuss China’s ruling coalition and their incentives to promote development Questions: • What incentivizes ruling groups to promote development? • Why is coalition building so important to this process? • What makes the CCP so oriented towards developing the country? • What makes the CCP so strong and cohesive a ruling party? • Why can’t most developing countries replicate the CCP’s track record? • What political changes might improve their performance? Week Build an effective, institutionalized government committed to inclusive development Required Readings (about 150 pages): • Francis Fukuyama, The Origins of Political Order (New York: Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 2011), 290-317 • Francis Fukuyama, “What is Governance?,” American Interest Democracy, • • • • • • • • • • • Development, and the Rule of Law Blog, January 31, 2012, http://www.theamerican-interest.com/fukuyama/2012/01/31/what-is-governance/ Francis Fukuyama, “What is Governance?,” Governance 26, no (July 2013): 366-67 [whole article worth reading] Francis Fukuyama, “The Patterns of History,” Journal of Democracy 23, no (January 2012): 14-26 Kjeld Erik Brødsgaard, “Governing Capacity and Institutional Change in China in the Reform Era,” The Copenhagen Journal of Asian Studies 28, no (2010): 2033 Peter Evans, “Transferable Lessons? Re-examining the Institutional Prerequisites of East Asian Economic Policies,” Journal of Developmental Studies 34, no (August 1998): 66-83 Hilton Root, “The Search for Good Governance,” Small Countries Big Lessons: Governance and the Rise of East Asia (Hong Kong: Oxford University Press, 1996), 145-77 Mushtaq Khan, Governance, Economic Growth, and Development Since the 1960s,” United Nations Department of Economics and Social Affairs, Working Paper 54, August 2007, 1-21 Tony Blair, Not Just Aid: How Making Government Work Can Transform Africa (public address at the Center for Global Development, Washington, D.C., December 16, 2010), 1-16 Seth Kaplan, Betrayed: Politics, Power, and Prosperity (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2013), chapter Lant Pritchett and Frauke de Weijer, Fragile States: Stuck in a Capability Trap? World Development Report 2011: Background Papers, 2010 [scan main points] Seth Kaplan, “Development with Chinese Characteristics: Ten Lessons for Policymakers,” presented at “The State in Asia: Power, Citizenship and the Rule of Law” conference organized by Leiden University (Leiden, Netherlands, December 12-14, 2012), lesson #3 Seth Kaplan, “What Have We Learned About Institutional Change?,” Fragile States Resource Center, July 18, 2013, http://www.fragilestates.org/2013/07/18/what-have-we-learned-aboutinstitutional-change/ Readers: What is effective governance? Questions: • How does effective governance differ from good governance? Why is the former so important? • Why is it important that states are institutionalized? • What institutions underpin East Asian developmental states? • What explains the effectiveness of the Chinese state? • How institutionalized is the Chinese state? • Why institutional reforms produce little change in many less developed countries (LDCs)? Week Focus on reworking incentives, removing obstacles to growth, and increasing competition / Experiment with new policies first, implement reforms gradually Required Readings (about 150 pages): • Loren Brandt and Thomas Rawski, “China’s Great Economic Transformation,” in China’s Great Economic Transformation, ed Brandt and Rawski (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008), 8-26 • Barry Naughton, Growing Out of the Plan: Chinese Economic Reform, 19781993 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995), 7-24 and 309-320 • Yingyi Qian, “How Reform Worked in China,” William Davidson Working Paper no 473, The William Davidson Institute, University of Michigan Business School, June 2002, 7-25, 36-43, 49-51 [scan the rest], http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/39858/wp473.pdf • Chenggang Xu, “The Fundamental Institutions of China’s Reforms and Development,” Journal of Economic Literature 49 no (2011): 1081-1100 (end of carry over paragraph) and 1107-1144 • Mushtaq Khan, “Bangladesh: Economic Growth in a Vulnerable LAO,” in Douglass North, John Wallis, Steven Webb, and Barry Weingast (ed.), In the Shadow of Violence (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013), 24-26 (top), 27, 30-31, 50-59 [whole chapter worth reading] • Andrew Wedeman, “Looters, Rent-Scrapers, and Dividend-Collectors: Corruption and Growth in Zaire, South Korea, and the Philippines,” Journal of Developing Areas 31 no (Summer 1997), 457-475 • Seth Kaplan, “Development with Chinese Characteristics: Ten Lessons for Policymakers,” presented at “The State in Asia: Power, Citizenship and the Rule of Law” conference organized by Leiden University (Leiden, Netherlands, December 12-14, 2012), lessons and Readers: How have China’s leaders reworked incentives to promote growth? Questions: • How does China’s approach to reform to differ from others? • How does an incentive-based approach to reform differ from a policy-based approach? • What is the role for experimentation in reform? • What is the role of “transitional institutions” in reform? • How does China’s fragmented authoritarian structure affect reform? • How might reform be approached differently in less developed countries (LDCs)? Week Start with small farmers and rural areas (Submission of paper topic and statement of thesis / Midterm assigned) Required Readings (about 140 pages): • Barry Naughton, Growing Out of the Plan: Chinese Economic Reform, 19781993 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995), 137-158 • • • • • • • • • • • John Bruce and Zongmin Li, “‘Crossing the River While Feeling the Rocks’: Incremental Land Reform and Its Impact on Rural Welfare in China,” International Food Policy Research Institute Discussion Paper 926 (Washington, DC, 2009), 1-44, http://www.ifpri.org/publication/crossing-river-while-feelingrocks Jamil Anderlini, “Rural Investment Pays Off in China,” Financial Times, September 11, 2012, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8a576f22-fbd0-11e1-af3300144feabdc0.html#axzz26FipTzjx Shenggen Fan, Bella Nestorova, and Tolulope Olofinbiyi, “China’s Agricultural and Rural Development: Implications for Africa,” China-DAC Study Group on Agriculture, Food Security and Rural Development, Bamako, April 27–28, 2010, 1-12, http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/chinaafricadac pdf Yasheng Huang, “China's True Economic Miracle: Is Rural Entrepreneurship the Backbone of China’s Economy?,” The Globalist, January 6, 2009, http://www.theglobalist.com/chinas-true-economic-miracle/ “Investing in Agriculture Key to Ending Extreme Rural Poverty in South Asia – UN,” UN News Centre, April 19, 2011, http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp? NewsID=38149&Cr=asia-pacific&Cr1#.UrsAc4227dU Colin Poulton, “Democratisation and the Political Economy of Agricultural Policy in Africa,” Future Agricultures Consortium Working Paper 43, July 2012, 2-22, http://www.future-agricultures.org/publications/research-and-analysis/workingpapers/doc_download/1579-democratisation-and-the-political-economy-ofagricultural-policy-in-africa Jan Kees van Donge, David Henley, and Peter Lewis, “Tracking Development in Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa: The Primacy of Policy,” Draft Version, 1-14 David Henley, “Agrarian Roots of Industrial Growth: Rural Development Policy in Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, Particularly Indonesia and Nigeria,” 115, Paper prepared for the first plenary meeting of Tracking Development, Leiden, 25-28 June 2008 Seth Kaplan, Betrayed: Politics, Power, and Prosperity (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2013), 174-177 India Knowledge@Wharton, “MNCs in Rural India: At a Turning Point,” Wall Street Journal, May 6, 2010, http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB127296168752486467 Seth Kaplan, “Development with Chinese Characteristics: Ten Lessons for Policymakers,” presented at “The State in Asia: Power, Citizenship and the Rule of Law” conference organized by Leiden University (Leiden, Netherlands, December 12-14, 2012), lesson #1 Readers: Contrast China’s rural strategy versus most other developing countries Questions: • Why start with farmers? • • • • • How does China’s approach to rural development differ from others? Why did rural areas play a crucial role in industrialization in China? What can we learn from China about rural reform? Why have countries in Africa and South Asia performed worse than China? Why has democracy not increased government support in these places? Week Invest heavily in learning and physical infrastructure / Use urbanization to promote development Required Readings (about 150 pages): • World Bank, The East Asian Miracle: Economic Growth and Public Policy (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1993), 191-203 • Harold Stevenson, “Human Capital: How the East Excels,” Behind East Asian Growth: The Political and Social Foundations of Prosperity, ed Rowen (New York: Routledge, 1998), 147-164 • Sam Dillon, “Top Test Scores From Shanghai Stun Educators,” New York Times, December 7, 2010, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/07/education/07education.html? pagewanted=all&_r=0 • Andreas Schleicher, “Opinion: What Asian Schools Can Teach the Rest of the World,” CNN.com, December 3, 2013, http://www.cnn.com/2013/12/03/opinion/education-rankings-commentaryschleicher/ • Charles Kenny, Learning about Schools in Development, Working Paper 236 (Washington, DC: Center for Global Development, 2010), 1-22 • Andres Oppenheimer, “Latin America in Denial about the Quality of Its Schools,” Miami Herald, September 26, 2010, http://www.cleveland.com/opinion/index.ssf/2010/10/latin_america_in_denial_ab out.html • Geeta Anand, “India Graduates Millions, But Too Few Are Fit to Hire,” Wall Street Journal, April 5, 2011, http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052748703515504576142092863 219826 • Yojana Sharma, “CHINA: Ambitious 'Innovation Society' Plan,” University World News, October 3, 2010, http://www.universityworldnews.com/article.php? story=20101002093207698 • Yojana Sharma, “Shift to Strategic International Research Collaboration,” University World News, October 15, 2013, http://www.universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20131015152042488 • Kirsten Bound, Tom Saunders, James Wilsdon, and Jonathan Adams, China’s Absorptive State: Research, Innovation and the Prospects for China-UK Collaboration (London: NESTA, 2013), 4, 6-9, 11-18 • Juro Osawa and Paul Mozur, “The Rise of China's Innovation Machine,” Wall Street Journal, January 16, 2014 • Shahid Yusuf, “China Urbanizes: Consequences, Strategies, and Policies,” China Urban Development Quarterly, Issue (July – September, 2008), 8-10, • • • • • • • • • • http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2008/09/9870786/china-urbandevelopment-quarterly-issue-5 Seth Kaplan, Betrayed: Politics, Power, and Prosperity (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2013), chapter Seth Kaplan, “What Makes Lagos a Model City,” New York Times, January 8, 2014, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/08/opinion/what-makes-lagos-a-modelcity.html Jeremy Smith, “The Key Policy Issue for China's Leadership – Urbanization,” Prime Economics Blog, June 20th, 2013, http://www.primeeconomics.org/? p=1910 [read Prime Minister Li Keqiang’s speech if you have time] Stephen Berrisford, “How to Make Planning Law Work for Africa,” Counterpoints (London: Africa Research Institute, November, 2013), http://www.africaresearchinstitute.org/newsite/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/ARICounterpoint-How-to-make-planning-law-work-for-Africa.pdf Pranab Bardhan, Awakening Giants, Feet of Clay: Assessing the Economic Rise of China and India (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2010), 54-64 China-DAC Study Group, “Economic Transformation and Poverty Reduction: How It Happened in China, Helping it Happen in Africa,” Volume One: Main Findings and Policy Implications (Paris: OECD, 2011), 47-60 Knowledge@Wharton, “Punj Lloyd’s Atul Punj: Why Fixing Rural Infrastructure Is India’s Top Priority,” India Knowledge@Wharton (August 15, 2010), http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/punj-lloyds-atul-punj-why-fixingrural-infrastructure-is-indias-top-priority/ Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), “Sub-Saharan Africa Economy: Closing the Infrastructure Gap,” EIU Viewswire, June 28, 2011, http://viewswire.eiu.com/index.asp? layout=VWPrintVW3&article_id=888249073&printer=printer Seth Kaplan, Betrayed: Politics, Power, and Prosperity (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2013), 165-74 and 178-84 Seth Kaplan, “Development with Chinese Characteristics: Ten Lessons for Policymakers,” presented at “The State in Asia: Power, Citizenship and the Rule of Law” conference organized by Leiden University (Leiden, Netherlands, December 12-14, 2012), lessons and Questions: • Why have Northeast Asian countries excelled in upgrading human capital? • How has China been able to rapidly upgrade its technological capabilities? • How has China used infrastructure investment strategically? • What explains China’s historical cost advantage in manufacturing? • How has China used urbanization strategically? • Might an urban-based governance model improve incentives in LDCs? Week Direct government policy to upgrade economy, build international competitiveness, and enhance stability Required Readings (about 160 pages): • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Robert Wade, Governing the Market: Economic Theory and the Role of Government in East Asian Industrialization (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2004), xliii-liv, 345-81 Barry Naughton, “China’s Distinctive System: Can It Be a Model for Others?,” in in S Philip Hsu, Yu-Shan Wu and Suisheng Zhao (ed.), In Search of China's Development Model: Beyond the Beijing Consensus (New York: Routledge, 2011), 67-83 Justin Yifu Lin, “New Structural Economics: A Framework for Rethinking Development,” Policy Research Working Paper no 5197 (Washington: World Bank, February 2010), 1-30 Justin Yifu Lin, “Why ‘Securing Transformation’ Matters in Development Economics,” October 4, 2010, http://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/whysecuring-transformation-matters-in-development-economics Justin Yifu Lin, “The Development Debate: A Rejoinder,” May 7, 2012, http://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/the-development-debate-a-rejoinder Justin Yifu Lin, “Africa Means Never Saying Goodbye,” March 22, 2012, http://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/africa-means-never-saying-goodbye Justin Yifu Lin, “Youth Bulge: A Demographic Dividend or a Demographic Bomb in Developing Countries?,” January 5, 2012, http://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/youth-bulge-a-demographicdividend-or-a-demographic-bomb-in-developing-countries “Entrepreneurship in China: Let a Million Flowers Bloom,” Economist, March 10, 2011, http://www.economist.com/node/18330120 Justin Lin, “Economics Focus: Walk, Don’t Run,” Economist, July 9, 2009, http://www.economist.com/node/13986299 Barry Naughton, The Chinese Economy: Transitions and Growth (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2007), 401-10, 416-423 Claire Melamed, Renate Hartwig, and Ursula Grant, “Jobs, Growth, and Poverty: What Do We Know, What Don’t We Know, What Should We Know?” Background Note (London: Overseas Development Institute, May 2011), 1-5 United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), Making the Most of Africa’s Commodities: Industrializing for Growth, Jobs and Economic Transformation (Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, UNECA), 4-14, http://www.uneca.org/publications/economic-report-africa-2013 China-DAC Study Group, “Economic Transformation and Poverty Reduction: How It Happened in China, Helping it Happen in Africa,” Volume One: Main Findings and Policy Implications (Paris: OECD, 2011), 61-69 Seth Kaplan, “Development with Chinese Characteristics: Ten Lessons for Policymakers,” presented at “The State in Asia: Power, Citizenship and the Rule of Law” conference organized by Leiden University (Leiden, Netherlands, December 12-14, 2012), lesson #7 Vijaya Ramachandran, Alan Gelb, and Manju Kedia Shah, “Africa’s Private Sector: What’s Wrong with the Business Environment and What to Do About It,” CGD Brief, Center for Global Development, March 2009, 1-3, http://www.cgdev.org/publication/9781933286280-africas-private-sector-whats- • • wrong-business-environment-and-what-do-about-it Alan Gelb, Christian Meyer, and Vijaya Ramachandran, “Does Poor Mean Cheap? A Comparative Look at Africa’s Industrial Labor Costs,” Working Paper 325, Center for Global Development, May 2013, 12-16, http://www.cgdev.org/publication/does-poor-mean-cheap-comparative-lookafricas-industrial-labor-costs Vijaya Ramachandran, “On Our Way to Beijing! (To Talk about African Economics),” Global Development: Views from the Center Blog, December 3, 2013, http://www.cgdev.org/blog/our-way-beijing-talk-about-african-economics Readers: African industrial development Questions: • What is the role of the state in economic transformation? • How can countries strategically advance industrial upgrading? • What is the role of the financial sector in a developmental state? • What is the role of foreign capital in economic transformation? • How does the neoliberal paradigm hold back economic transformation? • Why are most LDCs uncompetitive in manufacturing? Week 10 Be pragmatic and flexible / Build on local know-how and models / Promote self-reliance as the cornerstone of development strategy (Submission of organizational plan and bibliography of paper) Required Readings (about 135 pages and one presentation): • Timothy Lim, “Why is East Asia Rich? Rational Choice Approach” California State University, Los Angeles, POLS 373 Foundations of Comparative Politics (Spring 2012) Week 6/7 Slides, http://instructional1.calstatela.edu/tclim/S12_Courses/Lecture%20notes/373rich_rc.pdf • China-DAC Study Group, “Economic Transformation and Poverty Reduction: How It Happened in China, Helping it Happen in Africa,” Volume One: Main Findings and Policy Implications (Paris: OECD, 2011), 2-17 • Embassy of the People's Republic of China in the Republic of Rwanda, “Africa: China/Africa - Development Lessons, 1,” September 7, 2011, http://rw.chinaembassy.org/eng/rdzt/t856394.htm (about 10 pages) • “The Dragon’s New Teeth: China’s Military Rise,” The Economist, April 7, 2012, http://www.economist.com/node/21552193 • John McKay, “The Asian ‘Miracle’ After the Global Financial Crisis: Some Lessons For Africa,” Brenthurst Foundation Discussion Paper 2010/07, December 2010, 3-23 • Justin Yifu Lin, “Let’s Be Pragmatic: My Final Post as World Bank Chief Economist,” World Bank, Let’s Talk Development Blog, May 31, 2012, http://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/let-s-be-pragmatic-my-final-post-asworld-bank-chief-economist • Ha-Joon Chang, Kicking Away the Ladder: Development Strategy in Historical • • • • • • • • • Perspective (London: Anthem Press, 2003), 69-71, 110-21, 129-35 Seth Kaplan, Betrayed: Politics, Power, and Prosperity (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2013), chapter 13 Lindsay Whitfield, “Reframing the Aid Debate: Why Aid Isn’t Working and How It Should be Changed,” DIIS Working Paper 2009:34, Danish Institute for International Studies, 2009, 9-13 The Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy (WRR), Less Pretension, More Ambition Development Aid that Makes a Difference (The Hague: 2010) See summary and conclusions at http://www.thebrokeronline.eu/en/Magazine/articles/WRR-report-Lesspretension-more-ambition.-Development-aid-that-makes-a-difference and http://www.thebrokeronline.eu/en/Articles/Conclusion-Less-pretension-moreambition Degol Hailu and Admasu Shiferaw, " What Determines Exit from Aiddependence?," One Pager No 139, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth, 2012, http://ideas.repec.org/p/ipc/opager/139.html Todd Moss, Gunilla Pettersson, and Nicolas van de Walle, “An Aid-Institutions Paradox? A Review Essay on Aid Dependency and State Building in Sub-Saharan Africa,” Working Paper 74, Center for Global Development, January 2006, 2-20, http://www.cgdev.org/publication/aid-institutions-paradox-review-essay-aiddependency-and-state-building-sub-saharan Paul Farmer, “Partners in Help: Assisting the Poor Over the Long Term, Foreign Affairs, July 29, 2011, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68002/paulfarmer/partners-in-help Vijaya Ramachandran and Julie Walz, “Getting Greater Value from Post-Quake Aid to Haiti,” Center for Global Development, Rethinking U.S Foreign Assistance Blog, May 14, 2012, http://www.cgdev.org/blog/getting-greater-valuepost-quake-aid-haiti Dani Rodrik, One Economics, Many Recipes: Globalization, Institutions, and Economic Growth (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007), 1-12 Seth Kaplan, “Development with Chinese Characteristics: Ten Lessons for Policymakers,” presented at “The State in Asia: Power, Citizenship and the Rule of Law” conference organized by Leiden University (Leiden, Netherlands, December 12-14, 2012), lessons #9 and 10 Questions • Why have East Asians so focused on building national strength? • How can a country promote self-reliance while increasing interdependence? • How will a state strengthening regime differ from Western models? • What is the role of local models and know-how in this process? • How might foreign aid undermine development? • How can foreign assistance be better leveraged? Week 11 Presentations Week 12 Presentations Week 13 Going forward – challenges to the Chinese model; why middle-income countries face different challenges than low income countries Required Readings (about 160 pages): • Martin Dimitrov, “Understanding Communist Collapse and Resilience,” in Dimitrov (ed.), Why Communism Did Not Collapse: Understanding Authoritarian Regime in Asia and Europe (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2013), 19-39 • Bruce Dickson, “Who Consents to the ‘Beijing Consensus’: Crony Communism in China,” in S Philip Hsu, Yu-Shan Wu and Suisheng Zhao (ed.), In Search of China's Development Model: Beyond the Beijing Consensus (New York: Routledge, 2011), 189-202 • Yasheng Huang, Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics: Entrepreneurship and the State (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2008), 24-45 [scan main points] • Hugo Restall, “The Lessons From 30 Years of Chinese Reform,” Wall Street Journal, December 16, 2008, http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB122939170030209305 • Bob Davis, “How Real is China’s Growth? GDP Alternative Sheds Light,” Wall Street Journal China Real Time, December 18, 2013, http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2013/12/18/how-real-is-chinas-growth-gdpalternatives-shed-light/?mod=WSJBlog • Carl Walter and Fraser Howie, Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China's Extraordinary Rise (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2011), 195-214 • Dinny McMahon, “A Micro Reading of China’s Local Government Audit,” Wall Street Journal China Real Time, January 9, 2014, http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2014/01/09/a-micro-reading-of-chinas-localgovernment-audit/ • Jerome Cohen, “Struggling for Justice: China's Courts and the Challenge of Reform,” World Politics Review, January 14, 2014, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/13495/struggling-for-justice-chinascourts-and-the-challenge-of-reform • Andrew Browne, “Left-Behind Children of China's Migrant Workers Bear Grown-Up Burdens,” Wall Street Journal, January 17, 2014, http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304173704579260900849 637692 • Beina Xu, “China’s Environmental Crisis,” Backgrounder, Council on Foreign Relations, February 5, 2014, http://www.cfr.org/china/chinas-environmentalcrisis/p12608 • Ligang Song and Huw McKay, “Rebalancing the Chinese economy to sustain long-term growth,” East Asia Forum, July 3, 2012, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2012/07/03/rebalancing-the-chinese-economy-tosustain-long-term-growth/ • David Dollar, “Poverty, Inequality and Social Disparities During China’s • • • • • • • • Economic Reform” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4253, June 2007, 6-19, http://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/1813-9450-4253 Russell Leigh Moses, “China Reform Plan Leaves Political Battles Unresolved,” Wall Street Journal China Real Time, November 20, 2013, http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2013/11/20/china-reform-plan-leavespolitical-battles-unresolved/ Ian Bremer, “China: Superpower or Superbust?,” The National Interest, November/December 2013, http://nationalinterest.org/article/china-superpoweror-superbust-9269 The World Bank and the Development Research Center of the State Council, the People’s Republic of China, China 2030: Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative Society (Washington, DC: The World Bank, 2013), 4-24 Homi Kharas and Harinder Kohli, “What Is the Middle Income Trap, Why Countries Fall into It, and How Can It Be Avoided?,” Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 3, no (September 2011): 281-289 “Beware the Middle-income Trap,” The Economist, June 23, 2011, http://www.economist.com/node/18832106 Seth Kaplan, Betrayed: Politics, Power, and Prosperity (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2013), chapter 14 Seth Kaplan, “Development with Chinese Characteristics: Ten Lessons for Policymakers,” presented at “The State in Asia: Power, Citizenship and the Rule of Law” conference organized by Leiden University (Leiden, Netherlands, December 12-14, 2012), from “Remaining Challenges” to the end Ruchir Sharma, “The Ever-Emerging Markets,” Foreign Affairs 93, no.1 (January/February 2014): 52-56 Questions • Why has the CCP been so resilient? Will it continue to be so? • How has the role of the state in the economy changed during the reform era? • What are the major challenges that China faces? • Why is it so hard for China to improve its rule of law and regulatory regime? • Why have so few middle-income countries become fully developed? • What are possible scenarios for China’s future? ... China Real Time, January 9, 2 014, http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2 014/ 01/09/a-micro-reading-of-chinas-localgovernment-audit/ • Jerome Cohen, “Struggling for Justice: China'' s Courts and the Challenge... in China, ” Financial Times, September 11, 2012, http://www.ft.com /intl/ cms/s/0/8a576f22-fbd0-11e1-af330 0144 feabdc0.html#axzz26FipTzjx Shenggen Fan, Bella Nestorova, and Tolulope Olofinbiyi, ? ?China? ??s... http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/chinaafricadac pdf Yasheng Huang, ? ?China'' s True Economic Miracle: Is Rural Entrepreneurship the Backbone of China? ??s Economy?,” The Globalist, January 6, 2009, http://www.theglobalist.com/chinas-true-economic-miracle/