World energy consumtion 1970 2020

Oil Market Outlook Guy Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration Petroleum Stockpiling in the 21st Century November 30, 2004 Houston, TX Major Events and World oil Prices 1970-2004 45 Strong Demand Growth 40 Iran-Iraq War Saudis abandon "swing producer" role Nominal Dollars per Barrel 35 Operation Desert Storm Venezuela Unrest 30 OPEC cutbacks 25 20 Arab Oil Embargo 15 10 Iraq Invades Kuwait Iranian Revolution 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 9/11 attacks Asian economic crisis; Iraq oil-for-food 1995 Refiner Acquisition Cost of Imported Crude Oil (Saudi Light Official Price for 1970-73) Oil prices fluctuate widely over past three decades 2000 2004 Crude Oil Price Projections 60 West Texas Intermediate 40 30 20 Projections OPEC Basket 10 Monthly Crude oil prices rise again in 2004 Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2004 Sep-05 May-05 Jan-05 Sep-04 May-04 Jan-04 Sep-03 May-03 Jan-03 Sep-02 May-02 Jan-02 Sep-01 May-01 Jan-01 Sep-00 May-00 Jan-00 Sep-99 May-99 Jan-99 Dollars per Barrel 50 World Oil Demand Growth Million Barrels per Day 3.0 2.5 2.0 China 1.5 1.0 US 0.5 0.0 -0.5 19911999 Avg 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 World oil demand growth currently surging at very high rates Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2004 U.S Petroleum Products Demand Growth (Change from Year Ago) 800 History Thousand Barrels per Day 700 Projections 600 500 400 300 200 100 -100 -200 -300 -400 2002-2003 Total Motor Gasoline 2003-2004 Jet Fuel 2004-2005 Fuel Oil * Other * Sum of distillate and residual fuel U.S demand growth likely to slow in 2005 under high prices Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2004 Million Barrels per Day Non-OPEC Supply (Change from Year Ago) 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Proj 19911997 Average 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Former Soviet Union accounts for large share of projected growth Yearly OPEC Crude Oil Production Million Barrels per Day 40.0 Proj 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 OPEC currently producing at record levels World Oil Spare Production Capacity Million Barrels per Day 6.0 Proj 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 19911997 Average 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Spare global capacity at lowest level in 30 years OECD* Commercial Petroleum Stocks 3.00 Previous 5-year min/max range 2.90 2.70 2.60 2.50 2.40 End-of-month Inventories 2.30 Projection OECD oil stocks remain in low range Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2004 Nov-05 Sep-05 Jul-05 May-05 Mar-05 Jan-05 Nov-04 Sep-04 Jul-04 May-04 Mar-04 Jan-04 Nov-03 Sep-03 Jul-03 May-03 Mar-03 Jan-03 Nov-02 Sep-02 Jul-02 May-02 Mar-02 2.20 Jan-02 Billion Barrels 2.80 U.S Commercial Crude Oil Stocks 400 380 Previous 5-yr Min/Max Range 360 Million Barrels 340 320 300 280 260 Base Case F t Actual 240 220 Jul-05 Jan-05 Jul-04 Jan-04 Jul-03 Jan-03 Jul-02 Jan-02 200 Monthly US crude oil stocks likely to remain tight (again) this winter Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2004 The World’s 15 Largest Oil Suppliers, 2004 Saudi Arabia Russia United States Iran Mexico China Norway Canada Venezuela UAE Kuwait Nigeria UK Iraq Brazil 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 Million Barrels per Day Saudi Arabia and Russia remain leading world oil suppliers Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 2004) World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region, 1970-2015 History Projections 300 48% Quadrillion Btu 250 200 Industrialized 150 39% Share of World Total Developing 100 11% 50 EE/FSU 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 World energy consumption expected to grow 1.8% annually through 2015 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004 World Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, 1970-2015 History Projections 250 39% Quadrillion Btu 200 Oil 150 100 24% 23% Share of World Total Coal 50 Natural Gas Renewables Nuclear 8% 6% 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Oil remains the dominant energy source through 2015 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004 World Energy Use in the Transportation Sector, 2001-2015 120.0 Transportation Total Oil 100.5 Million Barrels per Day 100.0 91.4 77.1 80.0 60.0 54.7 49.3 41.2 40.0 20.0 0.0 2001 2010 2015 Transportation sector remains large share of total oil use Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004 World Oil Prices in Three Cases, 1970-2015 History Projections 2002 U.S Dollars per Barrel 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 1970 1975 1980 Low Oil Price Case 1985 1990 1995 Reference Case 2001 2010 2015 High Oil Price Case Oil price assumptions influence forecasts Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004 World Oil Consumption and Production 2001, 2010, and 2015 Consumption 120.0 Million Barrels per Day 100.0 80.0 Production Other Developing Asia Industrialized 100.5 91.4 77.1 Other EE/FSU OPEC 100.2 91.1 77.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 2001 2010 2015 2001 2010 2015 Developing Asia drives oil consumption growth Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004 U.S Dependence on Imported Oil 2002, 2010, and 2015 20.0 Million Barrels per Day 17.3 14.8 15.0 11.3 10.0 5.0 0.0 2002 Middle East OPEC 2010 2015 Non-Middle East OPEC US reliance on oil imports rises Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004 Non-OPEC World Oil Reserves by Country, as of January 1, 2004 Saudi Arabia Canada Iran Iraq UAE Kuwait Venezuela Russia Libya Nigeria United States China Mexico Qatar Algeria Norway Kazakhstan Brazil Azerbaijan Oman Rest of World World Total: 1,266 Billion Barrels 50 100 150 200 250 300 Billion Barrels Resources are adequate to meet expected demand Source: "Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production."Oil & Gas Journal, Vol 100, No 49 (December 22, 2003), pp 46-47 Nonconventional Oil Production in Three Price Cases, 2001-2015 7.0 Reference Low Oil Price Case High Oil Price Case Million Barrels per Day 6.0 5.7 5.0 4.6 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.0 1.4 1.0 0.0 2001 2010 2015 Nonconventional oil production on the rise Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004 Net Additions in World Oil Productive Capacity, 2001-2015 Saudi Arabia 4.2 Canada 1.8 Iraq 1.6 Kazakhstan 1.5 Kuwait 1.3 Russia 1.3 United Arab Emirates 1.2 Brazil 1.2 Venezuela 1.1 Mexico 0.9 Azerbaijan 0.9 Angola 0.9 Other 0.0 1.7 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Million Barrels per Day A number of countries are expected to add capacity Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004 Middle East Oil Productive Capacity by Country, 2001 and 2015 10.2 Saudi Arabia 3.7 4.3 Iran Iraq 2.8 United Arab Emirates 2.7 2.4 Kuwait Qatar Other Middle East 0.0 14.4 4.4 3.9 2001 2015 3.7 0.6 0.7 2.0 2.5 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 Million Barrels per Day The Middle Eastern share of world oil production capacity grows through 2015 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004 Summary • In the short-term, tight markets and political tensions keep world oil prices high • Through 2015, oil remains the dominant source of worldwide energy use (39% of total energy consumption) • The U.S and developing Asia (including China) account for 60% of the growth in world oil demand in the midterm • Transportation will account for much of the growth in oil use in the industrialized world; in the developing world, oil demand grows in all end-use sectors • U.S dependence on Persian Gulf OPEC will increase, but other OPEC and non-OPEC producers will remain important U.S suppliers [...]... Industrialized 150 39% Share of World Total Developing 100 11% 50 EE/FSU 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 World energy consumption expected to grow 1.8% annually through 2015 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004 World Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, 1970- 2015 History Projections 250 39% Quadrillion Btu 200 Oil 150 100 24% 23% Share of World Total Coal 50 Natural Gas... Eastern share of world oil production capacity grows through 2015 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004 Summary • In the short-term, tight markets and political tensions keep world oil prices high • Through 2015, oil remains the dominant source of worldwide energy use (39% of total energy consumption) • The U.S and developing Asia (including China) account for 60% of the growth in world oil demand... total oil use Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004 World Oil Prices in Three Cases, 1970- 2015 History Projections 2002 U.S Dollars per Barrel 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1970 1975 1980 Low Oil Price Case 1985 1990 1995 Reference Case 2001 2010 2015 High Oil Price Case Oil price assumptions influence forecasts Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004 World Oil Consumption and Production 2001,...The World s 15 Largest Oil Suppliers, 2004 Saudi Arabia Russia United States Iran Mexico China Norway Canada Venezuela UAE Kuwait Nigeria UK Iraq Brazil 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 Million Barrels per Day Saudi Arabia and Russia remain leading world oil suppliers Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 2004) World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region, 1970- 2015 History Projections... Projections 250 39% Quadrillion Btu 200 Oil 150 100 24% 23% Share of World Total Coal 50 Natural Gas Renewables Nuclear 8% 6% 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Oil remains the dominant energy source through 2015 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004 World Energy Use in the Transportation Sector, 2001-2015 120.0 Transportation Total Oil 100.5 Million Barrels per Day 100.0 91.4... UAE Kuwait Venezuela Russia Libya Nigeria United States China Mexico Qatar Algeria Norway Kazakhstan Brazil Azerbaijan Oman Rest of World World Total: 1,266 Billion Barrels 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Billion Barrels Resources are adequate to meet expected demand Source: "Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production."Oil & Gas Journal, Vol 100, No 49 (December 22, 2003), pp 46-47 Nonconventional Oil Production... International Energy Outlook 2004 Net Additions in World Oil Productive Capacity, 2001-2015 Saudi Arabia 4.2 Canada 1.8 Iraq 1.6 Kazakhstan 1.5 Kuwait 1.3 Russia 1.3 United Arab Emirates 1.2 Brazil 1.2 Venezuela 1.1 Mexico 0.9 Azerbaijan 0.9 Angola 0.9 Other 0.0 1.7 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Million Barrels per Day A number of countries are expected to add capacity Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook... Asia drives oil consumption growth Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004 U.S Dependence on Imported Oil 2002, 2010, and 2015 20.0 Million Barrels per Day 17.3 14.8 15.0 11.3 10.0 5.0 0.0 2002 Middle East OPEC 2010 2015 Non-Middle East OPEC US reliance on oil imports rises Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004 Non-OPEC World Oil Reserves by Country, as of January 1, 2004 Saudi Arabia... and developing Asia (including China) account for 60% of the growth in world oil demand in the midterm • Transportation will account for much of the growth in oil use in the industrialized world; in the developing world, oil demand grows in all end-use sectors • U.S dependence on Persian Gulf OPEC will increase, but other OPEC and non-OPEC producers will remain important U.S suppliers