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Q3 2011 www.businessmonitor.com UNIteD StateS information technology Report INCLUDES BMI'S FORECASTS ISSN 2041-7101 Published by Business Monitor International Ltd. UNITED STATES INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY REPORT Q3 2011 INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2015 Part of BMI’s Industry Report & Forecasts Series Published by: Business Monitor International Copy deadline: July 2011 Business Monitor International 85 Queen Victoria Street London, EC4V 4AB UK Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: subs@businessmonitor.com Web: http://www.businessmonitor.com © 2011 Business Monitor International. All rights reserved. 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All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. UNITED STATES INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY REPORT Q3 2011 INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2015 Part of BMI’s Industry Report & Forecasts Series Published by: Business Monitor International Copy deadline: July 2011 Business Monitor International 85 Queen Victoria Street London, EC4V 4AB UK Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: subs@businessmonitor.com Web: http://www.businessmonitor.com © 2011 Business Monitor International. All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any means graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omissions affecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 CONTENTS Executive Summary . Market Overview . Industry Developments Competitive Landscape Computer Sales Software . IT Services . SWOT Analysis . US IT Sector SWOT . US Political SWOT US Economic SWOT US Business Environment SWOT . IT Business Environment Ratings 10 Americas 10 Table: Regional IT Business Environment Ratings 10 Americas IT Markets Overview . 14 IT Penetration 14 United States Market Overview . 22 Government Authorities . 22 Overview 23 Hardware . 25 Software . 29 Services 33 Industry Developments 35 Industry Forecast Scenario . 37 Table: US IT Sector Overview, 2007-2014 39 Internet . 40 Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts 40 Macroeconomics Forecast 42 United States – Economic Activity . 45 Competitive Landscape . 46 Hardware . 46 Software . 49 Company Profiles . 55 HP 55 Dell 57 Microsoft 59 IBM 60 BMI Methodology . 61 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 61 IT Industry . 61 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 IT Ratings – Methodology 62 Table: IT Business Environment Indicators . 63 Weighting . 64 Table: Weighting Of Components 64 Sources 64 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 Executive Summary Market Overview US spending on IT products and services is forecast to reach US$643bn by 2015. US spending on IT products and services is forecast to reach US$529bn in 2011. PC sales contracted again in Q111, after strong growth in the first half of 2010. The commercial segment showed signs of vitality, but consumers were spending less. Overall moderate growth in IT spending is expected in 2011, with the public sector in retrenchment mode and the private sector relatively stronger. In 2011, an increase in project spending is expected. A major demand driver will be private and public sector organisations looking for help to utilise efficiencies from cloud computing models such as Software-as-a-Service and Infrastructure-as-a-Service. 2010 saw a number of government agencies at federal and local level launch cloud strategies and pilot programs. Other key market drivers are expected to include: Growing fixed and mobile broadband penetration. Data centre consolidation and virtualisation Product innovation such as tablets, e-readers and feature-rich netbooks. Technology innovation such as GPS and services. Economic recovery. Industry Developments GSA first federal agency to move all email to a cloud-based system In December 2010, the US General Services Administration (GSA) became the first federal agency to move email to a cloud based system for its entire organisation. As the first transition of its kind, the GSA's move is seen as a landmark that could influence other agencies who have previously held back from similar moves due to security or service concerns. In 2010, budgeted federal IT spending was set to rise to US$78.4bn, from US$74.2bn in 2009.In 2010, the Obama administration called on federal agencies to develop strategies to simplify and where possible © Business Monitor International Ltd Page United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 combine often sprawling IT operations so as to reduce costs. Guidelines published in 2010 by the Office of Management and Budget called for agencies to initiate data centre consolidation programs to help cut US$3bn from the federal budget. Competitive Landscape The US PC competitive landscape is dominated by two large domestic vendors, Dell and HP, which together account for at least 50% of the US market. In the first quarter of Q11 several vendors suffered from the sharp slowdown in the US market, which was caused by lacklustre consumer demand. Acer, whose traditional strength is in the consumer segment, was hit the hardest by the market contraction. Meanwhile Apple continued to profit at the expense of the number one and two PC vendors 2010 saw increasing competition between vendors for a growing number of public sector cloud contracts. The GSA picked web-based Google Apps to replace IBM Lotus Notes as the provider of email and collaboration software for its 17,000 full-time employees and contractors. In October 2010, New York City announced an initiative to bring Microsoft's BPOS (Business Productivity Onine Suite) to around 30,000 city employees. Computer Sales The US addressable market for PCs and accessories is estimated by BMI at US$121.3bn in 2011, with single-digit growth compared with 2010. US PC sales contracted in Q111 but BMI estimated that the market was on course for full-year total shipments of around 85mn units. US PC sales had slipped into negative y-o-y growth territory in the final quarter of 2010, dragging down the growth rate for the year as a whole. The commercial refresh segment showed signs of vitality, with steady growth in replacement purchases, but consumers were spending less. One additional driver of increased sales and lower prices is the move of telecoms operators into the PC retail space. Notebooks are the fastest-growing PC market segment and are estimated to have accounted for more than 60% of unit sales in 2010. However, netbooks and notebooks face competition from other formats such as tablets, which appear to have growing traction in the enterprise segment. Software The US software market is estimated at US$152.4bn in 2011, with single-digit growth from 2009. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 Software CAGR for 2011-2015 is projected at around 5.9%, as the addressable market grows to around US$191.7bn. A combination of enterprise objectives such as cost reduction and greater efficiency should combine to encourage the adoption of cloud services in 2011. Drivers of demand for enterprise software include increasing operational efficiency, coordinating global supply chains and modernising logistics and warehouse functions. More investment can be expected to be in utility software and serviced-oriented architectures rather than traditionally packaged PC software. IT Services The US IT services market is forecast at US$224bn in 2011, with vendors reporting a more stable market. IT services spending is expected to grow by 5% in 2011, building on a stabilisation of the market in the previous year. Spending on IT services is quite closely correlated with GDP growth, which is bad news in a recession but better news in a recovery. In 2011, unlike in 2010 when hardware refreshes drove IT spending, services is expected to be the fastest-growing segment. One opportunity will be organisations looking for help to utilise efficiencies from cloud computing such as SaaS and IaaS, as organisations look to save money on IT investments. National and local government is one vertical where strong interest in cloud services is being expressed. In H111, Microsoft's dominance with its Windows software appeared to be under threat of erosion from the surge in demand for non-Windows tablets. Analysts have long worried about Microsoft's potential over-reliance on Windows to drive its revenues, and the vendor's Q111 sales of Windows fell short of expectations. However Microsoft's overall revenues actually rose 13% in Q311, thanks mainly to strong sales of Microsoft Office © Business Monitor International Ltd Page United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 SWOT Analysis US IT Sector SWOT The largest IT market in the world, with spending forecast to pass US$552bn in 2011. Despite the challenging trading conditions, overall IT spending is still expected to remain in positive growth territory. Weaknesses During the recession in 2009, customers postponed projects and reduced short-term spending, particularly in areas such as consulting and software development. Opportunities Demand for new IT strategies to take advantage of innovations such as virtualisation, data centre consolidation, and cloud computing As economic woes ease, IT vendors should see more growth from traditional bigspending sectors such as banks, financial services, retail and manufacturing. The growing popularity of mobile broadband networks is driving netbook sales. New business models such as SaaS and virtualisation will continue to make progress. There is a risk that recovery could be anaemic in 2011, in which case spending on technology could have another hard year. A large federal budget deficit could lead to pressures on public sector IT spending. Strengths The US is an undisputed superpower, and therefore occupies centre stage in most international diplomacy. Long-standing democracy with vigorous and open political debate; the US continues to attract large numbers of immigrants committed to citizenship and self-advancement. Weaknesses Political debate between Republicans and Democrats has historically shown a tendency to become more polarised and divisive. As today's superpower, the US attracts the enmity of a wide range of political groups opposed to the current international status quo. Opportunities The changing political mood (as evidenced by the popularity of unconventional candidates in the 2008 presidential election, including Obama's), and the widespread dissatisfaction of the voting public, may encourage both major parties to experiment with more consensual approaches to certain policy areas. The current budget debates will provide a pertinent test of the degree to which bipartisan cooperation is possible. Threats The perception of inflexibility and bias in US foreign policy, particularly in the Middle East, may stiffen opposition and at worst provide fertile recruiting ground for radical anti-US groups such as al-Qaeda. Partly as a reaction to foreign policy difficulties, US public opinion may return to isolationist and protectionist modes. Strengths Threats US Political SWOT © Business Monitor International Ltd Page United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 more likely that they will purchase tablets and other mobile devices as alternatives. This poses a challenge to vendors with a particular strength in netbooks, such as Acer and Asus, to adjust their strategies. Software Operating Systems Microsoft is dominant in the operating system segment. However, in H111, the company's dominance with its Windows software appeared to be under threat of erosion from the surge in demand for nonWindows tablets. Analysts have long worried about Microsoft's potential over-reliance on Windows to drive its revenues, and in Q111 sales of Windows fell short of expectations. Microsoft has a lot riding on its Windows software, given perceived problems with its previous operating system Windows Vista and also because of the continuing global challenge from open source. Windows Vista ran into problems when business users found that many of their business applications could not run on the Vista operating system. There were also complaints from both business and household users about performance defects, due to the large amount of processing power and memory required by Vista. Regarding the compatibility problem, Microsoft has tackled this with a free extension to Windows called XP Mode. This allows users to run Windows XP applications on Windows 7. Windows will also use less processing power and memory than Windows Vista. Meanwhile, Microsoft has received credit for a much smoother launch of Windows compared with its previous operating system, due in large part to better cooperation with other players in the software value chain, including PC vendors and end-users. A wave of new PCs were released in Q409 with the new operating system, while Acer and Dell said that, as of launch date, there was zero inventory of Vista machines going into stores. BMI projected that Windows would provide a boost to the operating system software market in 2010. The new system will likely attract more support from businesses than Vista, largely because XP is now getting old. Many businesses that declined to upgrade from XP to Vista, due to reported problems with the latter, may now go straight to Windows 7. Microsoft will still offer reduced support for XP until 2015, but hardware manufacturers will start to wind down their support from about 2012. This will be a key factor that should drive business upgrades to Windows 7. Microsoft also argues that Windows can help businesses to save costs, enabling IT departments to be run more efficiently. In particular, Windows is better suited to virtualisation than either XP or Vista. Virtualisation look sets to become an important trend in IT spending in the next few years, as it allows businesses to simplify the management of desktop PCs by running desktop applications and storing user data within the datacentre. Given the current economic climate, however, IT directors will need to justify any upgrade in terms of cost savings. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 49 United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 Despite the disappointing results for Windows, Microsoft's overall revenues actually rose 13% to US$13.4bn in Q311, thanks mainly to strong sales of Microsoft Office. Sales for Microsoft's business division, which makes Office, rose 21% year-on-year, to US$5.3bn. Going forward, a revival in corporate IT spending should help Microsoft by boosting spending on Windows PCs. However, interest in open source is growing in the public sector. In 2010, an increasing number of government IT managers and service providers were looking at open source software stacks as part of a drive to consolidate datacentres. Virtualisation has become a major trend in the datacentre, and open source virtual machine products are becoming popular. Meanwhile, open source tools such as the LAMP stack, which consists of Linux, Apache Web server, MySQL database and Perl/PHP/Python, are being used in government. A key issue and precondition for the more widespread adoption of open source will be the development of a support infrastructure. Customers are increasingly looking for vendors to offer support for open source software. BMI expects this trend to continue with the development of more support infrastructure for the most important open source applications. Business Software The US business software market is competitive with tier-2 vendors, including some industry specialists, having around a more than 25% share of this market. There is room for smaller companies to compete alongside the major players such as SAP, Oracle and Microsoft. Manufacturing And Distribution In 2010, demand for software rebounded. 2009 Leading business software vendor SAP reported a number of new American clients in Q410, including Glazer's Wholesale Distributors and American Family Life Assurance Co. In 2009, a survey by Panorama Consulting Group showed that SAP had the leading ERP software market share in the manufacturing and distribution industries, followed by Oracle and Microsoft. SMEs The main enterprise software vendors are Source: Panorama Consulting Group, April 2009 increasingly focused on the small and mediumsized enterprise (SME) segment, rolling out a succession of product lines and software packages previously only available to larger companies. New releases were tailored to SMEs' smaller budgets and © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 50 United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 particular organisational needs. Key application areas include security, enterprise communications, network and server virtualisation, and business intelligence. HP has targeted this segment with solutions that allow businesses to operate with fewer staff and less capital and technology resources. Solutions meeting this need include storage, virtualisation, remote access and consolidation solutions. Oracle Sun Acquisition Oracle reported strong results in its third quarter of 2011. The company achieved around 29% year-onyear growth in new software license revenues as it continued to gain market share from German rival SAP in the applications space. SAP also reported strong hardware sales boosted by its acquisition of Sun Microsystems. Business software vendors have increasingly looked to expand through strategic acquisitions. This process is driven largely by demand for more targeted applications. Back in 2009, Oracle purchased Sun Microsystems for US$7.4bn. Oracle's acquisition came after IBM dropped its own bid to buy one of the most famous names in IT. Although not Oracle's largest ever acquisition, it was certainly one of the most significant in strategic terms, as it was Oracle's first hardware acquisition. Other Industries By adding hardware to the mix, the deal fits 2009 into Oracle's strategic plan to become a technology one-stop-shop for its global customer base. However, Oracle can also get leverage from synchronicities with Sun software. Sun's Java platform, used to write platforms for websites and mobile phones, will be a major asset for Oracle. Sun's Solaris is a major platform for Oracle's database software. The deal was just the latest in a string of recent acquisitions for Oracle that are estimated to have cost more than US$40bn. The acquisition Source: Panorama Consulting Group, April 2009 will have an impact on the business software competitive landscape as rival vendors work out how they are affected. IBM, in particular, which many thought a natural fit for a Sun acquisition, will have to redefine its relationship with Oracle. Meanwhile Oracle is also pushing into the cloud computing space through cooperation with Amazon.com. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 51 United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 Software-as-a-Service Cloud computing has emerged as one of the key growth areas of the worldwide software market, including in the US. In the first quarter of its 2012 fiscal year, leading segment player Salesforce.com has now exceeded a US$2bn annual run rate. The company claimed a strong fiscal position with revenues of US$504mn, up 34% from the previous year. As result, the company increased its 2012 revenues guidance to US$2.17bn from US$2.15bn. Major Salesforce.com accounts include Dell, with 40,000 total subscribers, Japan Post, Cisco and Spring. These are all large customers that use multiple applications on the on-demand platform, instead of buying products from Microsoft, Oracle and other traditional vendors. Popular SaaS applications include sales force automation, marketing automation, partner relationship management, service and support, and content management. Salesforce.com aims to expand by providing an entire application development and deployment platform and on-demand operating platform as part of the infrastructure. The global economic crisis gave what may prove to be a significant boost to the SaaS model, with vendors such as Google and Salesforce.com reporting continued growth. In its fiscal 2010, Salesforce.com reported revenues of US$1.66bn, up 27% from fiscal 2009. Meanwhile in H111, IBM unveiled new financing programmes for cloud application providers that wish to offer IBM software. Two financing and pricing programmes were available to help IBM business partners build their own cloud applications with IBM technology. IBM offered a rnage of low-rate financing and dferred payment terms to qualifying partners. IT Services The US IT services market is relatively fragmented with potential for consolidation. IT services vendors such as Accenture reported new revenues momentum in 2010 after a sharp deceleration in the previous year. Accenture reported growth in both consulting and outsourcing across a broad base of clients and industries. Consulting revenues, which had been most affected by the recession, bounced back in 2010, with companies looking for IT strategies around datacentre consolidation, virtualisation and cloud computing, that could help them to reduce costs. Most IT vendors anticipated improved revenues in 2010 as clients ramped up spending. HP reported Q110 revenues for the Americas region of US$13.6bn, up 9% on the same period of 2009. In the second half of 2009, the market had picked up, and HP reported solid fiscal Q409 results on the back of its services business. The company said that services had generated revenues of US$8.9bn for the quarter, up 8% on the same period of the previous year. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 52 United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 Meanwhile European IT services giant Cap Gemini reported 4% growth for its operations in North America in 2010. This was despite the fact that outsourcing, which comprises 43% of the company's local business, was down 20%, due in part to reductions of scope on many contracts. Cap Gemini remained optimistic, describing cyclical activities as very good and showing the rebound of the market. The global financial crisis had a sharp impact on IT services vendors in 2009. However, the impact seemed to have been relatively greater on Indian vendors such as Infosys and Tata Consulting Services (TCS), due to their generally greater proportionate exposure to the US financial services industry. The fall of Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch was ominous for Indian outsourcers that were highly exposed to the US market and financial services. Share of these companies had fallen by more than half by mid2009. US segment leaders such as Accenture and IBM generally saw revenues down between 10-15% in the first half of the year compared with 2008. The industry was looking to diversify away from financial services into more focus on opportunities in other sectors such as telecoms, healthcare, utilities and manufacturing. Globally, financial services accounts for about 20% of IT services spending, ahead of government, which is about 18%, and similar to manufacturing at around 22% according to market research firm IDC. In recent years there have been a number of acquisitions and merger deals. According to IDC there were about 230 such deals globally in 2007 in the software and IT services space. In October 2009, a computer hardware leader Dell made a US$3.9bn purchase of Perot Systems, while Xerox followed later in the month with its US$6.4bn acquisition of Affiliated Computer Services. One year into its Perot acquisition, Dell claimed that things were going well, with Dell's overall strength complementing Perot's specialisation in particular verticals. Key vertical targets for the combined business include healthcare, where Perot had 15 years of experience. The acquisition has resulted in Dell becoming one of the biggest global providers of healthcare IT, and Dell has subsequently moved to consolidate this position with some additive acquisitions. Dell is also targeting Education, where it sees strong growth potential, and in February 2011 the company reported an outsourcing deal with the Keller Independent School District. Meanwhile, HP said that its integration of EDS was ahead of schedule. In September 2009 HP changed the name of the EDS unit to HP Enterprise Services, and following the integration of the companies, sought to cut costs by slashing 19,000 jobs. In the month of the name change, HP's EDS unit won a US$30mn contract from the US Department of the Treasury's Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to provide and maintain end-user computing resources and mobility services. Another factor set to shape the IT services market over BMI's five-year forecast period is the trend for leading niche IT market players to seek to evolve into full IT service companies such as HP and IBM. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 53 United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 Business software major Oracle and networking equipment leader Cisco are both moving on separate but parallel paths towards this end. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 54 United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 Company Profiles HP Services Technology services, consulting and integration. HP is organised into three main divisions: Personal Systems Group (PSG): Business and consumer PCs, mobile computing devices and workstations. Recent Developments Printing and Imaging Devices; Inkjet, Laser Jet and commercial printing. Technology Solutions: Software and managed services, EDS, storage and servers. In September 2009, HP changed the name of its EDS unit, created following the acquisition of fellow IT services leader EDS, to HP Enterprise Services. In the same month, the EDS unit won a US$30mn contract from the US Department of the Treasury. HP's third and fourth quarter positive performance was driven largely by services revenues, which in Q309 were up 93% compared with the same period of the previous year, reaching US$8.5bn. This was primarily due to HP's acquisition of EDS. In Q309, HP said that its business was stabilising, making the company confident that it would be an early beneficiary of an economic turnaround. In H109 HP continued to contest with Dell for leadership position in the US computer market. In Q209, HP slipped into second place behind Dell, according to market research firm IDC, with 26% of the market to Dell's 26.3%. Gartner put HP's US market share at 25.7% in Q309, once again behind Dell. However, HP had previously dethroned Dell as the market leader in Q109, driven largely by the consumer notebook segment. In 2009 HP was particularly successful in using the low-price notebook trend to bolster its position. In July 2009 the company was selling a US$298 laptop at Wal-Mart stores, while a rival Dell product, also produced for Wal-Mart, retailed for US$398. Following the success of its Wal-Mart product, HP continued with its low-price strategy for the back-to-school season. In the software segment, HP is targeting SMEs with solutions that allow businesses to operate with fewer staff and less capital and technology resources. Solutions offered by HP to meet this need included storage, virtualisation, remote access and consolidation solutions. Future Plans For FY10, HP expects revenue of around US$117.0bn to US$118.0bn. The company has said that it sees significant opportunities to invest in innovation and sales to expand its portfolio and market coverage. HP also plans to improve margins in 2010 and to increase margins by leveraging a leaner cost structure, while continuing to invest for growth. Revenues In Q110, HP reported revenues of US$31.2bn, up by 8% y-o-y. Revenues from the Americas grew by an annualised 9% to US$13.6bn. In Q409, HP reported revenues of US$30.8bn, down 8% on the same period of the previous year, but up 12% on Q309. Income was up y-o-y from US$2.1bn in Q408 to US$2.4bn in Q409. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 55 United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 In Q309, HP reported net revenues of US$27.5bn, down 2% from the same period of the previous year and up 4% in constant currency. The US accounted for 38% of global revenues in the quarter. In FY08 HP reported revenues of US$118.4bn, up 13%. Presence 321,000 employees worldwide as of 2008. Sectors In Q308, HP attributed record profit in services, double-digit revenue growth in China and solid cash flow as driving its bottom line growth. Services revenue increased 93% to US$8.5bn due primarily to the EDS acquisition. HP Software revenue declined by 22% to US$847mn. Personal Systems Group (PSG) posted an increase of unit shipments of 2% and maintained the leading market position in PCs worldwide. PSG revenue declined by 18% to US$8.4bn. Imaging and Printing Group (IPG) revenue declined by 20% to US$5.7bn. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 56 United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 Dell Services Manufacture, marketing and sales of computer systems and services worldwide. In December 2008, Dell announced that it was reorganising itself into four global business units: Recent Developments Large Enterprise. Public. SMEs. Consumer. In October 2009, Dell made an offer to acquire IT services company Perot Systems. Dell expected the acquisition to close in Q409. The purchase should position Dell to grow by expanding its offering of IT services and solutions. Perot Systems will in effect become Dell's IT services unit. In Q309, Dell narrowly pipped HP for the market leader position, according to market research firm Gartner, taking 26.2% of the market to HP's 25.7%. In Q209, Dell beat HP into the US PC market leader position, according to market research firm IDC, taking 26.3% of the market to HP's 26.0%. However, Dell reported disappointing profits in Q309 of US$727mn, down from US$15.2bn in the same period of the previous year as margins came under pressure. Globally Dell has suffered in the US downturn from the deep cuts in corporate spending, as well as the transition away from desktops. Dell Americas revenues from the corporate segment declined 17% in value terms (and 23% in units) in fiscal 2009. These trends have reinforced the logic of the company's largely successful global transition towards a more retailfocused approach. In Q209, IDC reported that Dell achieved negative 18.9% shipments growth in the US market, compared with just -2.3% for major domestic rival HP. Dell has mounted a strong global comeback in the past couple of years, from declining unit sales, by moving aggressively into the retail segment. The company has thus moved away from its 'direct Dell' strategy of selling direct to customers. In the US the company has done this by developing partnerships with leading retailers such as Best Buy. This strategy has provided with a fresh source of growth during a slowing market, enabling it to recover some of the market share that it had lost to HP, as well as Asian challengers such as Acer, Lenovo and Toshiba. Revenues Dell reported revenues of US$61.6bn for FY09, unchanged from 2008. Net income, however, was US$2.5bn, down 16% from US$2.9bn in the previous year. Presence 76,500 employees. Sectors Dell's commercial business serves large corporations, public customers such as government, education, healthcare and SMEs. In Q309, Dell continued to report a slowdown in most business segments. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 57 United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 In Q309, Dell's global consumer business reported a 10% y-o-y increase in revenues on a 32% increase in shipments. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 58 United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 Microsoft Services Software licences, support and services. Microsoft has five major business divisions: Recent Developments Client, which includes the Windows product family. Server and tools, which includes software server products, services and solutions. Online business services. Microsoft Business Division, which includes Microsoft Office and Microsoft Dynamics. Entertainment and Devices, which includes the Xbox video game system. Microsoft suffered a deceleration in sales of PCs bundled with its software in H109 owing to the economic slowdown. In July 2009, Microsoft posted declines in profits and sales for the fourth 2009 fiscal quarter, blaming the weakness in global PC and server sales. However, the fourth quarter brought some significant product milestones including the release of Windows Server 2008 R2, and the search engine Bing. BMI projects that the release of Windows will provide a boost to Microsoft. The launch of Microsoft's Windows operating system was the most significant event for Microsoft since the launch of Windows 95. Microsoft has a lot riding on the new operating release, given perceived problems with its previous operating system Windows Vista, and also because of the continuing global challenge from open source. Windows Vista ran into problems when business users found that many of their business applications could not run on the Vista operating system. Microsoft has taken a couple of steps to fix perceived problems with Vista. Regarding the compatibility problem, Microsoft has tackled this with a free extension to Windows called XP Mode. This allows users to run Windows XP applications on Windows 7. Secondly, Windows will use less processing power and memory than Windows Vista. Revenues Microsoft's Q409 revenues were down by 17% y-o-y to US$13.1bn. In the fiscal year ending June 2009, Microsoft reported net revenues of US$58.44bn, down by 3% y-o-y. Presence As of June 2009, Microsoft had 92,736 employees, with 55,843 working in the US. Sectors Microsoft dominates the operating system segment but was threatened in 2007 with the emergence of the popularity of netbook computers. Most netbook computers originally came with open source Linux operating systems due to the heavy systems requirement of Windows Vista. Netbooks were therefore seen as a threat to Microsoft's revenues. However, Microsoft has fought back by allowing netbooks to ship Windows XP, bringing its market share back up In the enterprise software segment, Microsoft competes with its Microsoft Dynamics suite of products. In April 2009, a survey by Panorama Consulting Group ranked Microsoft third in the manufacturing and distribution industry's ERP segment, with a market share of around 14%. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 59 United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 IBM Services Manufacturer, distributor and provider of advanced IT solutions including hardware, software, peripherals and data processing equipment. IBM has three main business segments: Recent Developments Global Technology Services. Global Business Services. Software. In 2008, IBM reported revenues growth of 5%, despite the economic slowdown, while pre-tax income also rose. Over 90% of segment profits in 2008 came from software, services and financing. Around 65% of IBM's 2008 revenues were generated outside the US. In 2008 the company invested US$6.3bn for 15 acquisitions, 10 of them in software. IBM also invested US$6.3bn in R&D. In 2009, IBM said that it had prioritised strategic investments in service-oriented architectures, business analytics and next generation datacentres, relying on these areas to drive growth in 2010. IBM expected 2009 pre-tax income for its software segment to grow at a double-digit rate to around US$8bn. Future Plans The company's goal is earnings per share of US$10-11 in 2010. Revenues In the second quarter of 2010, IBM reported total revenues of US$23.7bn, up by 2% y-o-y. Revenus for the Americas region, which includes the US, were up by 3% y-o-y. Presence 410,097 employees. Sectors In 2008, IBM reported the following results by division: Technology services revenues were up by 9% (6% adjusting for currency), pre-tax income up by 30%. Global business services revenues up by 9% (5% adjusting for currency), pre-tax income up by 30%. Software revenues up by 11% (8% adjusting for currency), pre-tax income up by 18%. Software pre-tax profits doubled over the five years to 2008, when they were US$7bn. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 60 United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 BMI Methodology How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts BMI’s industry forecasts are generated using the best-practice techniques of time-series modelling. The precise form of time-series model we use varies from industry to industry, in each case being determined, as per standard practice, by the prevailing features of the industry data being examined. For example, data for some industries may be particularly prone to seasonality, i.e. seasonal trends. In other industries, there may be pronounced non-linearity, whereby large recessions, for example, may occur more frequently than cyclical booms. Our approach varies from industry to industry. Common to our analysis of every industry, however, is the use of vector autoregressions. Vector autoregressions allow us to forecast a variable using more than the variable’s own history as explanatory information. For example, when forecasting oil prices, we can include information about oil consumption, supply and capacity. When forecasting for some of our industry sub-component variables, however, using a variable’s own history is often the most desirable method of analysis. Such single-variable analysis is called univariate modelling. We use the most common and versatile form of univariate models: the autoregressive moving average model (ARMA). In some cases, ARMA techniques are inappropriate because there is insufficient historic data or data quality is poor. In such cases, we use either traditional decomposition methods or smoothing methods as a basis for analysis and forecasting. It must be remembered that human intervention plays a necessary and desirable part in all of our industry forecasting techniques. Intimate knowledge of the data and industry ensures we spot structural breaks, anomalous data, turning points and seasonal features where a purely mechanical forecasting process would not. IT Industry Forecasts There are a number of criteria that drive our forecasts for each IT variable. IT forecasting is complicated due to the fragmented nature of the market, with little transparency of vendor data and low apparent agreement between many sets of figures in terms of market definition, base and methodology. In addition, forecasts are naturally affected by consideration of a variety of internal and external political and economic factors. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 61 United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 Within best-practice techniques of time-series modelling, BMI’s quarterly updated forecasts are improved substantially by intimate knowledge of the prevailing features of each local market. Individual variables taken into account in creating each forecast include: Overall economic context, and GDP and demographic trends; Underlying ‘information society’ trends; Projected GDP share of industry; Maturity of market structure; Regulatory developments and government policies; Developments in key client sectors such as telecommunications, banking and e-government; Technological developments, and diffusion rates; Exogenous events. Estimates are calculated using BMI’s own macroeconomic and demographic forecasts. IT Ratings – Methodology Our approach in BMI’s IT Business Environment Ratings is threefold. First, we seek accurately to capture the operational dangers to companies operating in this industry globally. Second, we attempt, where possible, to identify objective indicators that may serve as proxies for indicators that were traditionally evaluated on a subjective basis. Finally, we include aspects of BMI’s proprietary Country Risk Ratings (CRR) that are relevant to the IT industry. Overall, the ratings system, which integrates with those of all 16 industries covered by BMI, offers an industry-leading insight into the prospects/risks for companies across the globe. Ratings System Conceptually, the ratings system divides into two distinct areas: Limits of potential returns: Evaluation of sector’s size and growth potential in each state, and also broader industry/state characteristics that may inhibit its development. Risks to realisation of those returns: Evaluation of industry-specific dangers and those emanating from the state’s political/economic profile that call into question the likelihood of anticipated returns being realised over the assessed time period. Indicators The following indicators have been used. Overall, the rating uses three subjectively measured indicators, and 41 separate indicators/datasets. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 62 United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 Table: IT Business Environment Indicators Indicator Rationale Limits to potential returns Market structure IT market value, US$bn Sector value growth, % year-onyear (y-o-y) Denotes breadth of IT market. Large markets score higher than smaller ones Denotes sector dynamism. Scores based on annual average growth over five-year forecast period Government initiatives and spending Denotes spending boost provided by public sector, which can be a crucial determinant of sector development Hardware, % of total sales Denotes maturity of market. A high proportion of hardware sales – compared to services/software – indicates that the overall IT market is immature Country structure Urban-rural split GDP per capita, US$ Urbanisation is used as a proxy for development. Predominantly rural states therefore score lower A high GDP per capita supports long-term industry prospects. Overall score for country structure is also affected by the coverage of the power transmission network across the state Risks to potential returns Market risks Intellectual property (IP) laws ICT policy Markets with fair and enforced IP regulations score higher than those with endemic counterfeiting Subjective evaluation of official policy towards IT development, as enshrined in statute and tax code Country risk Short-term external risk Rating from CRR evaluates the vulnerability to external shock, which is the principal cause of economic crises. Such a crisis would cut investment Short-term financial risk Rating from BMI’s CRR, to denote risk of currency crisis and stability of banking sector. The former would hit revenues in hard currency, while the latter would curtail investment funding Trade bureaucracy Legal framework Bureaucracy Corruption Rating from CRR to denote ease of trading with the state Rating from CRR denotes the strength of legal institutions in each state – security of investment can be a key risk in some emerging markets Rating from CRR denotes ease of conducting business in the state Rating from CRR denotes the risk of additional illegal costs/possibility of opacity in tendering/business operations affecting companies’ ability to compete Source: BMI © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 63 United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 Weighting Given the number of indicators/datasets used, it would be wholly inappropriate to give all subcomponents equal weight. Consequently, the following weight has been adopted. Table: Weighting Of Components Component Weighting Limits of potential returns 70% – IT market 65% – Country structure 35% Risks to realisation of potential returns 30% – Industry risks 40% – Country risk 60% Source: BMI Sources Additional sources used in IT reports include national ministries and ICT regulatory bodies, national industry associations, and international industry organisations such as the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), officially released company results and figures, and international and national industry news agencies. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 64 [...]... Monitor International Ltd Page 20 United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 Market Structure (% Of Total IT Market) 2011e 2015f e/f = estimate/forecast Source: BMI © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 21 United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 United States Market Overview Government Authorities Government Authority National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA),... rebuilding began apace in H210 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 17 United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 The largest IT market in the region is, vastly, the United States, with spending estimated at US$529.3bn in 2011, while Canada is a distant second with US$44.7bn Brazil is estimated at US$27.8bn in 2011, making it the largest IT market in the Latin American region, and a major... implement ICT for local SMEs, and similar initiatives have been seen in Mexico and elsewhere © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 15 United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 Market Growth And Drivers IT Market Sizes Across the Americas, in 2011, a greater 2011e (US$mn) range of financing options for consumers and more flexible terms from retailers will be the main drivers of consumer IT.. .United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 IT Business Environment Ratings Americas Table: Regional IT Business Environment Ratings Risks To Realisation Of Returns Limits Of Potential Returns IT Market Country Structure Limits Market Risks Country Risk Risks IT BE Rating Regional Ranking United States 83 90 85 50 59 56 76.3 1 Canada 68 90 75... vendors have reported that large companies have been the most enthusiastic early adopters of cloud solutions Usage of the cloud for information storage appears relatively low in the US and Canada compared with some other mature markets However, 2010 saw a number of US government agencies at federal and © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 19 United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 local... 2011, of 42.8%, which should rise to 58.5% by e/f = estimate/forecast Source: BMI 2015 Broadband penetration in the United States was estimated at 28.1% in 2010, and is forecast to reach 32.5% by 2015 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 14 United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 Meanwhile, in Latin American markets, broadband penetration is on course to reach as high as 23.1% in Argentina... itself are major purchasers of IT products and services © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 22 United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 The US Treasury is in charge of tax issues affecting the US industry, including such issues as R&D tax subsidies The Office of E-Government and Information Technology within the Office of Budget Management is responsible for monitoring federal IT spending... government's 2007-2012 economic plan has a key role for technology in development and various public bodies are launching e-infrastructure projects Meanwhile, the government's affordable computer programmes have encouraged more local production of computers © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 13 United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 Americas IT Markets Overview IT Penetration A mixed... provincial levels were expected to be bid on ahead of October's presidential elections The © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 16 United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 Brazilian government's US$344mn modernisation strategy should mean enhanced IT spending in 2011 and over the next few years Some structural risks pertain to our forecast scenario Many Latin American markets, from Argentina... pushing © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 26 United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 prices of notebooks into the under US$500 range Average PC selling prices were estimated to have fallen by around 20% between 2008 and H109 However, prices were more stable in 2010 Drivers Total PC sales are estimated at around 85mn units in 2011 One additional driver of increased sales and lower . deadline: July 2011 United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 2 United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 © Business. US$152.4bn in 2011, with single-digit growth from 2009. United States Information Technology Report Q3 2011 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 7 Software CAGR for 2011- 2015 is. information hereto contained. UNITED STATES INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY REPORT Q3 2011 INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2015 Part of BMI’s Industry Report & Forecasts Series Published
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