Australia information technology report q3 2010

Q3 2010 www.businessmonitor.com aUStraLIa information technology Report INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2014 ISSN 2041-7160 Published by Business Monitor International Ltd. AUSTRALIA INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY REPORT Q3 2010 INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2014 Part of BMI’s Industry Report & Forecasts Series Published by: Business Monitor International Publication Date: July 2010 Business Monitor International Mermaid House, Puddle Dock, London, EC4V 3DS, UK Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: subs@businessmonitor.com Web: http://www.businessmonitor.com © 2010 Business Monitor International. All rights reserved. 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All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 CONTENTS Executive Summary . SWOT Analysis . Australia IT Sector SWOT . Australia Political SWOT Australia Economic SWOT Australia Business Environment SWOT . IT Business Environment Ratings 10 Asia IT Business Environment Ratings 10 Table: Asia Pacific IT Business Environment Ratings . 10 Asia Regional IT Markets Overview 13 Australia Market Overview 20 Government Authority 20 Background 20 Hardware . 20 Software . 22 IT Services . 24 Industry Developments 25 Table: Computers For Schools Programme, Phase Two – Planned Spending By State . 27 Industry Forecast Scenario . 28 Table: Australia’s IT Sector (US$mn Unless Otherwise Stated) 30 Internet . 31 Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts 31 Macroeconomic Forecast . 32 Table: Australia – Economic Activity 34 Competitive Landscape . 35 Computers 35 Software . 36 IT Services . 38 Internet Competitive Landscape 40 Table: Australia Dial-up And Broadband Internet Subscriptions (’000) . 40 Company Profiles . 46 HP Australia 46 SAP (Australia) 47 Country Snapshot: Australia Demographic Data . 48 Section 1: Population . 48 Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 48 Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2012 . 49 Section 2: Education And Healthcare 49 Table: Education, 2002-2005 49 Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 49 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 50 Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 50 Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 50 Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 51 BMI Methodology . 52 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 52 IT Industry . 52 IT Ratings – Methodology 53 Table: IT Business Environment Indicators . 54 Weighting . 55 Table: Weighting Of Components 55 Sources 55 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 Executive Summary Market Overview Australia’s IT market should continue to provide opportunities in consumer, government and business sectors in 2010, following a relatively robust performance in 2009. The size of the domestic IT market is projected by BMI to increase from US$19.1bn in 2010 to around US$23.7bn in 2014. 2010 should see IT spending a boost from systems upgrades deferred from last year, although much will depend on business confidence. In H110, vendors reported a pick-up in demand with the revival of a number of IT projects that had been shelved in 2009. Australian organisations implementing major IT projects included retail giant Harvey Norman. A number of factors underpin our forecast of a 5% 2010-2014 compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the Australian IT market. Government tenders will drive considerable spending in years to come. Regulatory compliance will continue to need spending by banks and intense competition in the retail sector is spurring spending on customer relationship management (CRM) and back-office systems. Competition and new service platforms in the telecoms sector is a driver for that key IT spending segment. Industry Developments Government IT spending was estimated at above US$4bn in FY2008/09. In 2010, government projects in sectors such as e-government, healthcare and education will drive significant opportunities for IT vendors. In mid-2010, the Australian government is expected to launch a standardised reporting system scheme. The National E-Health Transition Authority has the goal to create a paperless environment in Australia’s health sector, including public hospitals. While most government IT programmes were relatively immune to the global slowdown, the financial downturn encouraged the government to seek greater efficiency in IT procurement. There were reports in 2009 that the government was considering centralising the procurement of desktop computers, with the appointment of a single supplier. The Australian Information Industry Association expressed concerns about the implications for smaller companies. In 2010, national and state governments will continue to roll out new initiatives, with the Victoria government investing more than US$150mn in IT in schools. Around 1,400 high schools were expected to benefit from phase two of the government’s computers for schools project, announced in 2009. By the end of 2009, the programme was to have provided almost AUD260mn of computers. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 Company News In 2010, the release of Apple’s iPad is expected to open a new competitive battleground in tablet notebooks, with rival vendors planning to release their own rival products. The iPad was officially launched in Australia in May, with local telecoms companies Telstra and Optus offering what were claimed to be some of the cheapest data rates in the world for iPad users. In February 2010, Microsoft Australia received a boost when Qantas, one of the largest corporate users of Lotus Notes in Australia, announced that it had dumped the IBM email system in favour of Microsoft Outlook. A long-time user of Notes, Qantas announced that it would migrate 20,000 workers to Outlook by the end of 2010, with the project being managed by Fujitsu. Vendors in the Australian market are investing in infrastructure to provide cloud computing services locally. IT services group CSC Australia planned to launch both infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) and a range of Microsoft software-as-a-service (SaaS) from its local data centres. Meanwhile, Japanese IT giant Fujitsu announced in April that it would deploy a second IaaS offering from an Australian data centre. Computer Sales Australian computer hardware sales are projected at US$8.0bn in 2010 and, following a deceleration in 2009, are forecast to grow at a 2010-2014 CAGR of around 4% to reach US$9.3bn by 2014. The main drivers of growth in the PC market will be government programmes, growing broadband penetration and greater affordability. The fastest-growing segment is notebooks, which already accounts for more than 50% of the market by value. The main drivers of growth in the PC segment will be government programmes, growing broadband penetration and greater affordability. More than 90% of Australian households now have a PC, but consumers appear willing to spend on upgrading their notebook computers and it is also becoming more popular to purchase a second household PC. Small business comprise more than 99% of all Australian businesses and slightly more than 50% of business PC sales. Software Software is expected to account for about 18% of the Australian IT market in 2010, with estimated spending of US$3.4bn. As the focus moves from hardware to services and solutions, the share of the market accounted for by software is forecast to rise to 20% by 2014, with businesses seeking greater leverage from their investments. Software sales are forecast to have a CAGR of around 8%, rising to US$4.6bn by 2014. Given the focus of many businesses of controlling costs, cloud computing models have also grown in popularity and spread beyond initial core application areas. Over the forecast period, enterprise resource planning (ERP), CRM and other e-business products will be increasingly popular with the small and © Business Monitor International Ltd Page Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 medium-sized enterprise (SME) market, as companies look to enhance productivity through automating essential functions. IT Services IT services are expected to account for about 40% of the domestic IT market in 2010 with spending of US$7.7bn, up from US$7.2bn in 2009. CAGR for the segment is estimated at 8% over 2010-2014. IT services are forecast to be one of the most dynamic sectors of the Australian IT market. In 2010, sectors such as government, telecoms, healthcare and banking should continue to supply demand for implementation, consulting and managed services. Regulatory compliance will continue to need spending by banks and intense competition in the retail sector is spurring spending on CRM and backoffice systems. E-Readiness A number of alternative Australian internet service providers (ISPs) are in the process of expanding the coverage of their ADSL networks. Other broadband service providers, including Unwired, are rolling out WiMAX networks, which will help to ensure greater choice and flexibility in the type of broadband connection available. Australia is above the OECD average in terms of businesses purchasing online (49% versus 33%) and selling online (27% versus 17%). The central component of the Rudd government’s ICT strategy and overall domestic economic policy is the construction of a National Broadband Network. The programme is expected to drive economic growth and foster the creation of a digital economy. The government has projected GDP gains of 1.4% after five years from the broadband project. Tenders for the construction of the network were lodged in November 2008. Despite these investment commitments, our outlook for Australian broadband growth continues to be cautious. This is based partly on delays that have characterised government and operator efforts to address the problem of low broadband coverage in rural parts of Australia. Meanwhile, fixed penetration rates in urban areas are already very high. Our newly revised broadband forecast envisages broadband penetration rising to just over 37% at the end of 2009. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 SWOT Analysis Australia IT Sector SWOT Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats ! Strong government support for ICT programmes. ! IT-literate population. ! Strong financial sector. ! Relatively unaffected by global economic crisis compared with Europe and the US. ! Australia has a relatively mature domestic market, with relatively slow growth rates. ! Sensitive to volatility in the global economy. ! The National Broadband Network programme will have many direct and indirect benefits for the IT market. ! Phase two of the computers for schools project is expected to generate an additional US$800mn of spending. ! Other major IT projects in areas such as healthcare and smart cards. ! Green IT as companies look to make power savings. ! The biggest threat is slowdown the global economic slowdown affecting Australia’s economic activity and leading to a scaling back of IT budgets. ! The cheaper Australian dollar will affect consumer and business demand in the import-dependent IT market. Australia Political SWOT ! Australia is a mature democracy with a broadly stable party system. ! Economic stability over recent years supports the current political system and radical groups are unlikely to gain substantial support. ! Despite enjoying general political stability over the years, the ruling party’s lack of a clear majority in the upper house of parliament (senate) occasionally creates difficulty in the passage of policy. ! As one of the region’s largest and most stable states, the country attracts many refugees and economic migrants. The issue is a key source of domestic tension and one that is unlikely to disappear over the medium term. Opportunities ! Australia has historically enjoyed close military ties with the US. However, with the rise of regional economic powers like China, it will need to balance competing military and economic ties. Threats ! Australia’s early support for the US ‘war on terror’, among other things, has made Australians abroad a target for Islamic extremists. ! Australia’s close alliance with the US, particularly under John Howard, has left a lingering feeling among some Asian governments that Canberra is Washington’s ‘deputy sheriff’ in the region. Strengths Weaknesses © Business Monitor International Ltd Page Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 Australia Economic SWOT Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats ! A modern economy supported by a sound financial system and a highly educated workforce. ! Continuity in policymaking. This lowers risks for investors and reduces the economy’s vulnerability to governmental change. ! The persistent current account deficit, which increases vulnerability to capital flows and, by extension, currency volatility. ! The export basket is highly concentrated in commodities with the consequence that the economy and currency remain vulnerable to fluctuations in world prices for metals, coal and agricultural goods. ! The rapid expansion of Asian economies in recent years – notwithstanding the current global recession – offers new opportunities for diversifying trading ties from core European markets. ! A low level of government debt has provided a certain amount of flexibility in fiscal policy to support domestic demand through the downturn. ! The currency’s vulnerability to commodity prices – and risk appetite in general – complicates exchange rate forecasting over the near term. ! Australia is vulnerable to droughts, which have become increasingly severe in past years as a result of global climate change. Australia Business Environment SWOT ! A highly educated workforce and comparatively modern transport infrastructure underpin economic prospects. ! The economy is very open, with the IMF awarding Australia its highest rating in the index of trade restrictiveness. ! Despite its openness, Australia requires the Foreign Investment Review Board to approve any commercial real estate investment by a foreign company or individual valued at US$5mn or more. ! With a population of just under 22mn, the domestic consumer base is small by regional standards. Opportunities ! Australia has opened talks with China, ASEAN, Malaysia, the Gulf Co-operation Council, Japan and South Korea regarding a free trade agreement (FTA), and is also considering FTAs with India and Indonesia. Threats ! Corporate taxes for foreign investors in Australia are higher than in other states. ! Recent investment proposals by Chinese firms regarding the resource extraction sector have raised fears that strategic assets will be lost to foreign players. Strengths Weaknesses © Business Monitor International Ltd Page Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 Total Internet Subscriptions By Technology December 2008 (%) Source: ABS Broadband Internet Subscriptions By Technology December 2008 (%) Source: ABS The largest share of total internet subscriptions at the end of 2008 comprised xDSL connections, accounting for 52.6% of the total. Meanwhile, just 16.2% of internet subscriptions were dial-up connections based on analogue/PTSN infrastructure. Meanwhile, mobile wireless connections accounted for a further 16.2% of total internet subscriptions. The ABS defines mobile broadband as a broadband internet connection based either on a WiMAX network, or where a laptop is used to connect to the internet via a 3G datacard or USB modem; 3G mobile phone handsets are not included. In terms of the number of broadband internet subscriptions at the end of 2008, xDSL accounted for the majority, at 62.9%. According to ABS, there were 4.208mn xDSL connections at the end of 2008, up by 10.3% from 3.815mn at the end of 2007. Meanwhile, at 19.4% of the total, mobile wireless connections accounted for the next greatest share of Australian broadband connections at the end of 2008. Cablebased broadband connections also accounted for a sizeable share of the market at 13.7%. Fixed-wireless services accounted for 2.5% of the broadband market at the end of 2008 while satellite services accounted for 1.2% of total connections. Telstra continued to dominate the broadband sector at the end of 2008, with its retail and wholesale units accounting for a combined 81% share of the market. Based on figures published by Telstra and the Australian telecoms regulator, the incumbent’s overall share of the broadband market fell from 89.5% at the end of 2007. The number of Telstra wholesale broadband connections fell by 4.2% in the 12 months ending December 2008. Meanwhile, Telstra expanded its retail broadband subscriber base by just over 28% during the same period. Telstra’s 3.737mn retail customers at the end of 2008 gave the operator a 55.9% share of the Australian retail broadband market. Telstra’s largest rival, Optus, had 933,000 broadband subscribers at the end of 2008, up by 4.5% from 893,000 a year earlier. Optus’s on-net broadband subscribers (ie those served via the operator’s own © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 41 Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 infrastructure) increased by 25.4% in 2008, while off-net subscribers (ie those that are served via the wholesale product of another service provider – typically Telstra’s) decreased by 51.4% during the same period. Meanwhile, in Q109, Optus’s on-net customers rose to 848,000, a 20.3% y-o-y increase. The number of off-net customers was down by 49% y-o-y at 101,000. The overall number of broadband subscribers grew by 4.9% in Q109 to reach 951,000. The steady increase in the number of on-net broadband customers and the associated decrease in the number of off-net customers illustrate the extent to which Optus has become less dependent on Telstra’s wholesale service for the provision of its own broadband service offering. Other Australian broadband internet service providers include Primus, Internode, Pacnet, iiNet, engin, Austar Broadband and Telecom New Zealand’s Australian subsidiary, AAPT. In addition to ISPs that operate nationally, there are a large number of regional services providers operating in specific states. Collectively, these alternative operators saw the most rapid broadband subscriber growth in the 12 months ending December 2008. By the end of the year, broadband service providers other than Telstra and Optus accounted for over 30% of the broadband market, up from 27% a year earlier. In March 2009, it was announced that one of Australia’s largest alternative broadband operators, Primus Telecommunications, had been declared bankrupt. Internet Service Revenues Strong broadband customer growth at Telstra has continued to have a positive impact on the operator’s retail broadband revenues. In the first half of its 2009 financial year (ending December 2008), Telstra reported a 20.4% increase in fixed broadband revenue, which grew to AUD783mn. Telstra noted that subscriber growth was increasingly weighted to its cable network, with 15,000 new cable broadband customers gained in the six months to December. As Australia’s fixed broadband services market matures, Telstra has noted a slowdown in the growth of fixed broadband revenue and fixed broadband subscribers. However, the operator’s fixed broadband average revenue per user (ARPU) continued to grow. In the six months to December 2008, Telstra’s fixed broadband ARPU was up 6.1% on the prior corresponding period to AUD57.32. The higher ARPU reflected the migration of customers to higherspeed broadband plans. Meanwhile, in its full-year results for the 12 months ending March 2009, Optus reported a significant increase in revenues from on-net broadband customers. Optus’s on-net broadband revenues grew by 41.5% to reach AUD367mn, up from AUD259mn in its previous financial year. In the financial year ending March 2009, ARPU from Optus’s on-net broadband customers was up 6.9% y-o-y to AUD43. ADSL2+ One of the most significant developments shaping Australia’s broadband market is the move by a number of operators towards much higher-speed services. In announcing its results for the first half of its 2009 financial year, Telstra reported that it had experienced a 114.6% increase in the number of subscribers on © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 42 Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 plans with speeds of 20Mbps or greater. The operator reported having around 210,000 customers in this category at the end of December 2008. Telstra has embarked on a transformation of its business, putting its BigPond high-speed broadband service at the centre of its strategy. The incumbent can deliver fixed-line broadband access to over 90% of Australian consumers, from about 360 ADSL2+ exchanges (higher speeds of 20Mbps) and 2,400 ADSL exchanges (normal speeds of 8Mbps). However, Telstra is only allowed to offer its faster speed service in regions where competitors such as Optus, Primus Telecom and iiNet are also able to offer ADSL2+ residential connections. Telstra had previously refused to activate ADSL2+, except in exchanges where its competitors were already operating. It claimed it did not have regulatory certainty from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) that it would not be forced to re-sell the service to its competitors. This was despite several public statements from the ACCC that ADSL2+ would not be made a declared service. The move will provide broadband speeds of up to 20Mbps for up to 2.4mn homes and businesses across the country. After a stand-off with the government, which had lasted for more than a year, Telstra activated its ADSL2+ broadband network in February 2008. In March 2009, Telstra announced that it would invest more than AUD300mn (US$191.4mn) in 2009 to upgrade its hybrid fibre coaxial network to offer downlink speeds of up to 100Mbps. According to reports, the initial phase was expected to be completed in Melbourne by Christmas. Telstra will install DOCSIS 3.0 software across its network in the Victoria capital, and it is understood that download speeds will range between 70-100Mbps, while average upload speeds will be 2Mbps; the comparatively slow speed of latter rate is understood to be due to technical limitations. Also in March, broadband provider Internode launched its ‘Extreme’ symmetric high speed digital subscriber line services in Adelaide, targeting medium-sized businesses. The new service offers uplink and downlink speeds of 5-40Mbps; the price for a 5Mbps service with a 25GB download limit is AUD700 (US$450) per month, while a 40Mbps connection with unlimited usage will cost AUD4,000 per month. Internode has said it plans to roll out the service to business districts in other cities, with Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane expected to be next to receive the increased speeds. In January 2009, Internode revealed it was planning to enhance and upgrade its international and domestic networks. The operator has announced that it would quadruple the capacity of its bandwidth linking Sydney, Canberra, Melbourne and Adelaide, increasing it from multiple 2.5Gbps links to multiple 10Gbps links. It claims the move comes as it looks to ‘meet growing demand from customers’. Internode has also revealed that, under a separate project, it plans to add an alternative fibre path to Asia by using the Sea-Me-We cable, which connects Perth with countries in South East Asia, the Middle East and Western Europe. Currently it uses the Southern Cross Cable and Australia-Japan Cable, which lands in Sydney. The new links were set to be in service by March 2009. It plans to form peering relationships in London and Amsterdam for direct connectivity with European ISPs and content providers. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 43 Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 In April 2009, Primus Telecom, which offers services under the iPrimus banner, announced that it would abandon plans to build new Digital Subscriber Line Access Multiplexers (DSLAMs), following the government’s announcement that it would build the NBN as a public-private partnership. Instead, Primus announced a resale deal with Telstra for the incumbent’s ADSL2+ services at approximately 1,500 exchanges. The agreement will effectively quadruple Primus’s ADSL2+ coverage area, having previously rolled out its own ADSL2+ services in 286 exchanges. Primus offers ADSL2+ plans from its own exchanges from AUD32.95 (US$23.35) per month, but will offer resold Telstra ADSL2+ services from AUD69.95 per month. Naked DSL In March 2009, Australia’s second largest broadband operator, Optus, unveiled plans to start offering naked DSL subscription plans, allowing customers to have a broadband connection without having to rent a traditional telephone line. Optus says the service, which includes a 7GB data download cap, is priced at AUD59.99 (US$38.30) or AUD49.99 when bundled with an Optus mobile plan. The company also announced plans allowing for month-to-month subscriptions as opposed to a standard 24-month contract. Internode and iiNet were the first ISPs to offer the service in Australia. Following a four-month trial, Internode launched its ‘Naked ADSL2+’ service at 450 exchanges in March 2008. Internode’s service launch followed the conclusion of a network sharing agreement with Optus Wholesale, which increased Internode’s network footprint of 100 ADSL2+ equipped telephone exchanges to 450 across Australia. Internode is investing AUD3.5mn in the expansion of high-speed internet services across rural Australia. WiMAX Although xDSL services still account for by far the greatest number of broadband connections – and the bulk of new broadband subscriber growth – there are signs that alternative technologies such as WiMAX are set to gain greater prominence. Some analysts have suggested that the total market for WiMAX services in Australia could be worth US$123.6mn by 2012. Key players in the WiMAX sector include Unwired, whose WiMAX network provides coverage in Sydney and Melbourne. In October 2008, it was reported that Unwired had shortlisted three potential hardware suppliers, Huawei, Alcatel-Lucent Technologies and Motorola, for its WiMAX network rollout. The announcement came as Unwired prepared to upgrade from its current pre-WiMAX infrastructure that was supplied by Navini Networks. According to reports, Unwired’s older network equipment will not be decommissioned when the WiMAX roll-out takes place. Unwired is thought to have over 75,000 subscribers and the operator has spectrum for a planned deployment in other Australian cities including Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Geelong, Newcastle and along the central Australian coastline. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 44 Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 Other WiMAX broadband operators in Australia include Allegro, which claims to cover 16% of Australia’s population with its network; BigAir, which operates in a number of major cities; and Austar Broadband, the broadband internet arm of pay TV company Austar. In January 2009, BigAir launched its WiMAX network in Perth, Western Australia. The deployment covers 30km around the central business district, or approximately 2,000km2. According to the operator, the new network delivers symmetric broadband speeds of to up 1,000Mbps. BigAir is understood to be looking for new ISPs and channel partners in the west to re-sell services across the new network. BigAir launched its first WiMAX services across Sydney and Melbourne in August 2007 and has since expanded to Brisbane, the Gold Coasts and, most recently, Perth. The point-to-point service is based on Airspan Networks’ 802.16d technology using 5.8GHz MicroMAX base stations. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 45 Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 Company Profiles HP Australia Services Technology services, consulting and integration. Recent Developments In 2008, HP acquired fellow US giant EDS, which subsequently announced that it would cut around 75 staff from its Australian workforce of more than 6,000. By December 2008, EDS Australia claimed that planned staff cuts had basically been completed locally. In the same year, HP bought one of Australia’s most successful software groups, Tower Software, for AUD55.9mn. HP was the combined PC market leader in 2008 and also leader in the server segment. The company is continuing to focus on winning its share of government contracts. In H208, the company was boosted by a new AUD900mn federal government programme to provide schools with laptops over a three-year period. Meanwhile, as a result of a consolidation process involving its IT suppliers by the New South Wales education department, HP will now be the sole supplier of laser printers to the agency, as well as schools and colleges under its jurisdiction. Future Plans In November 2008, HP Australia confirmed that it would cut around 7.5% of jobs locally. The projected layoffs will be spread over three years in relation to operational requirements. Local Market HP Australia’s revenues in 2008 rose only 1.8% over the previous year to reach AUD3.27bn. Performance Profits were down 45% to AUD44.3mn. Presence Fully owned subsidiary. As of 2008, HP Australia had 3,028 staff, up from 2,464 in 2007 and close to 2006 levels of 3,063. HP employs more than 32,000 people across the Asia Pacific. Sectors Hewlett-Packard is aiming to push its managed services business across the Asia Pacific region to take advantage of the growing demand for IT outsourcing. Another item on HP’s current agenda is to push HP branded services delivered by its channel partners – beyond just warranty services – and about 25% of resellers in Asia have this capability. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 46 Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 SAP (Australia) Services Enterprise software, support and services. Recent Developments Despite the economic slowdown, SAP continued to win major tenders in 2009. SAP software was selected for a contact worth tens of millions of dollars from Origin Energy. SAP was also the selected software supplier for a major project by leading superannuation funds administrator Superpartners – the AUD70mn IT overhaul included new software to replace legacy systems that had become increasingly error-prone. Superpartners hired new IT staff with specific knowledge of SAP solutions. In 2009, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia was one year into a AUD580mn banking modernisation project, intended to replace 1960s-era software with new technology from SAP. Meanwhile, Woolworths announced in March 2009 that SAP would supply the software for its key merchandising systems. Other local clients in 2008 included 7-Eleven and Adelaide Brighton Limited. Future Plans Australia will remain an important market in the Asia Pacific for SAP. Due to language and cultural factors, less localisation is generally required of products already launched in the US and Western European markets, and so Australia (and New Zealand) is often an introductory point for products SAP would like to introduce in Asia Pacific. In 2009, SAP has said that it will work on overhauling its partnership plans with a more customer focused ‘ecosystem strategy’. According to SAP, the new strategy has led to a restructuring and innovation in partner relations. Local Market SAP Australia and New Zealand reported a record growth year in 2008. Overall Australian Performance market revenue growth was 36%, with 79% growth in software licence revenues. Presence In 2009, SAP laid off around 40 people from its local staff of about 500. However, SAP has several hundred software partners, 1,300 service partners as well as a number of channel partners and technology partners in Australia. Sectors In 2008, SAP reported particularly strong growth in the retail, utilities and mining industries. Other key sectors for SAP include banking and retail. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 47 Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 Country Snapshot: Australia Demographic Data Section 1: Population Population by age, 2005:2030 (total) Population by age, 2005 75+ 75+ 70-74 70-74 65-69 65-69 60-64 60-64 55-59 55-59 50-54 50-54 45-49 45-49 40-44 40-44 35-39 35-39 30-34 30-34 25-29 25-29 20-24 20-24 15-19 15-19 10-14 10-14 5-9 5-9 0-4 0-4 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 Male 0.5 1.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 2030 Female 1.0 2.0 2005 Figures in millions. Source: UN Population Division Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 2005 2010f 2020f 2030f Dependent population, % of total 32.1 32.1 35.5 38.5 Dependent population, total, ’000 6,501 6,765 8,323 9,758 67.8 67.8 64.4 61.4 13,695 14,282 15,095 15,530 19.6 18.6 17.7 17.2 Youth* population, total, % of total 3,960 3,926 4,147 4,372 Pensionable population, % of total 12.5 13.4 17.8 21.3 Pensionable population, total, % of total 2,541 2,839 4,176 5,386 Active population, % of total Active population, total, % of total Youth* population, % of total f = forecast. * Youth = under 15. Source: UN Population Division © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 48 3.0 Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 Section 2: Education And Healthcare Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2012 2005 2010f 2020f 2030f Urban population, % of total 92.7 94.0 90.6 91.9 Rural population, % of total 7.3 6.0 9.4 8.1 Urban population, total, ’000 18,679 19,927 21,217 23,239 Rural population, total, ’000 1,476 1,274 2,201 2,048 20,155 21,201 23,418 25,287 Total population, ’000 f = forecast. Source: UN Population Division Table: Education, 2002-2005 2002/03 2004/05 Gross enrolment, primary 103 104 Gross enrolment, secondary 149 149 72 73 Gross enrolment, tertiary Gross enrolment is the number of pupils enrolled in a given level of education regardless of age expressed as a percentage of the population in the theoretical age group for that level of education. Source: UNESCO Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 2005 2010f 2020f 2030f Life expectancy at birth, males (years) 77.6 78.5 80.6 82 Life expectancy at birth, females (years) 82.8 83.4 84.8 85.9 Life expectancy estimated at 2005. f = forecast. Source: UNESCO © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 49 Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 9,796 9,943 10,067 10,207 10,492 10,665 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.3 2.8 1.6 50.6 50.8 51.0 51.2 51.6 51.9 9,063 9,248 9,459 9,636 9,957 10,154 1.2 2.0 2.2 1.8 3.3 1.9 – male 5,035 5,135 5,227 5,338 5,486 5,582 – female 4,028 4,113 4,232 4,298 4,471 4,572 — female, % of total 44.4 44.4 44.7 44.6 44.9 45.0 Total employment, % of labour force 92.5 93.0 93.9 94.4 94.9 95.2 Unemployment, ’000 667 637 607 571 535 526 – male 384 364 330 309 287 284 – female 283 273 277 262 248 242 – unemployment rate, % 6.9 6.4 6.0 5.6 5.1 5.0 Economically active population, ’000 – % change y-o-y – % of total population Employment, ’000 – % change y-o-y Source: ILO Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 2000 2007e 2008f 2009f 2010f 2012f 11,934.8 23,776 24,218 23,877 23,636 24,075 Poorest 20%, expenditure per capita 3,520.8 7,014 7,144 7,044 6,973 7,102 Richest 20%, expenditure per capita 24,645.4 49,097 50,010 49,305 48,808 49,715 Richest 10%, expenditure per capita 30,314.4 60,390 61,513 60,647 60,035 61,150 Middle 60%, expenditure per capita 10,502.6 20,922 21,312 21,011 20,800 21,186 14,987.1 19,531 20,505 na na na Poorest 20%, expenditure per capita 4,421.2 5,762 6048.9 na na na Richest 20%, expenditure per capita 30,948.3 40,332 42,343 na na na Richest 10%, expenditure per capita 38,067.1 49,609 52,083 na na na Middle 60%, expenditure per capita 13,188.6 17,187 18,044 na na na Consumer expenditure per capita Purchasing power parity Consumer expenditure per capita e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. na = not available. Source: World Bank, country data; BMI calculation © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 50 Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 2000 2007e 2008f 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f Non-agricultural, AUD 41,309 55,812 58,644 61,460 64,448 66,076 69,273 Manufacturing, AUD 37,773 55,181 57,981 60,765 63,720 65,329 68,490 Non-agricultural, US$ 23,959 45,844 46,704 45,922 45,406 44,145 45,213 Manufacturing, US$ 21,908 45,326 46,176 45,403 44,892 43,646 44,702 e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: ILO, BMI © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 51 Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 BMI Methodology How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts BMI’s industry forecasts are generated using the best-practice techniques of time-series modelling. The precise form of time-series model we use varies from industry to industry, in each case being determined, as per standard practice, by the prevailing features of the industry data being examined. For example, data for some industries may be particularly prone to seasonality, i.e. seasonal trends. In other industries, there may be pronounced non-linearity, whereby large recessions, for example, may occur more frequently than cyclical booms. Our approach varies from industry to industry. Common to our analysis of every industry, however, is the use of vector autoregressions. Vector autoregressions allow us to forecast a variable using more than the variable’s own history as explanatory information. For example, when forecasting oil prices, we can include information about oil consumption, supply and capacity. When forecasting for some of our industry sub-component variables, however, using a variable’s own history is often the most desirable method of analysis. Such single-variable analysis is called univariate modelling. We use the most common and versatile form of univariate models: the autoregressive moving average model (ARMA). In some cases, ARMA techniques are inappropriate because there is insufficient historic data or data quality is poor. In such cases, we use either traditional decomposition methods or smoothing methods as a basis for analysis and forecasting. It must be remembered that human intervention plays a necessary and desirable part in all of our industry forecasting techniques. Intimate knowledge of the data and industry ensures we spot structural breaks, anomalous data, turning points and seasonal features where a purely mechanical forecasting process would not. IT Industry Forecasts There are a number of criteria that drive our forecasts for each IT variable. IT forecasting is complicated due to the fragmented nature of the market, with little transparency of vendor data and low apparent agreement between many sets of figures in terms of market definition, base and methodology. In addition, forecasts are naturally affected by consideration of a variety of internal and external political and economic factors. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 52 Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 Within best-practice techniques of time-series modelling, BMI’s quarterly updated forecasts are improved substantially by intimate knowledge of the prevailing features of each local market. Individual variables taken into account in creating each forecast include: ! Overall economic context, and GDP and demographic trends; ! Underlying ‘information society’ trends; ! Projected GDP share of industry; ! Maturity of market structure; ! Regulatory developments and government policies; ! Developments in key client sectors such as telecommunications, banking and e-government; ! Technological developments, and diffusion rates; ! Exogenous events. Estimates are calculated using BMI’s own macroeconomic and demographic forecasts. IT Ratings – Methodology Our approach in BMI’s IT Business Environment Ratings is threefold. First, we seek accurately to capture the operational dangers to companies operating in this industry globally. Second, we attempt, where possible, to identify objective indicators that may serve as proxies for indicators that were traditionally evaluated on a subjective basis. Finally, we include aspects of BMI’s proprietary Country Risk Ratings (CRR) that are relevant to the IT industry. Overall, the ratings system, which integrates with those of all 16 industries covered by BMI, offers an industry-leading insight into the prospects/risks for companies across the globe. Ratings System Conceptually, the ratings system divides into two distinct areas: Limits of potential returns: Evaluation of sector’s size and growth potential in each state, and also broader industry/state characteristics that may inhibit its development. Risks to realisation of those returns: Evaluation of industry-specific dangers and those emanating from the state’s political/economic profile that call into question the likelihood of anticipated returns being realised over the assessed time period. Indicators The following indicators have been used. Overall, the rating uses three subjectively measured indicators, and 41 separate indicators/datasets. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 53 Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 Table: IT Business Environment Indicators Indicator Rationale Limits to potential returns Market structure IT market value, US$bn Sector value growth, % year-onyear (y-o-y) Denotes breadth of IT market. Large markets score higher than smaller ones Denotes sector dynamism. Scores based on annual average growth over five-year forecast period Government initiatives and spending Denotes spending boost provided by public sector, which can be a crucial determinant of sector development Hardware, % of total sales Denotes maturity of market. A high proportion of hardware sales – compared to services/software – indicates that the overall IT market is immature Country structure Urban-rural split GDP per capita, US$ Urbanisation is used as a proxy for development. Predominantly rural states therefore score lower A high GDP per capita supports long-term industry prospects. Overall score for country structure is also affected by the coverage of the power transmission network across the state Risks to potential returns Market risks Intellectual property (IP) laws ICT policy Markets with fair and enforced IP regulations score higher than those with endemic counterfeiting Subjective evaluation of official policy towards IT development, as enshrined in statute and tax code Country risk Short-term external risk Rating from CRR evaluates the vulnerability to external shock, which is the principal cause of economic crises. Such a crisis would cut investment Short-term financial risk Rating from BMI’s CRR, to denote risk of currency crisis and stability of banking sector. The former would hit revenues in hard currency, while the latter would curtail investment funding Trade bureaucracy Legal framework Bureaucracy Corruption Rating from CRR to denote ease of trading with the state Rating from CRR denotes the strength of legal institutions in each state – security of investment can be a key risk in some emerging markets Rating from CRR denotes ease of conducting business in the state Rating from CRR denotes the risk of additional illegal costs/possibility of opacity in tendering/business operations affecting companies’ ability to compete Source: BMI © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 54 Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 Weighting Given the number of indicators/datasets used, it would be wholly inappropriate to give all subcomponents equal weight. Consequently, the following weight has been adopted. Table: Weighting Of Components Component Weighting Limits of potential returns 70% – IT market 65% – Country structure 35% Risks to realisation of potential returns 30% – Industry risks 40% – Country risk 60% Source: BMI Sources Additional sources used in IT reports include national ministries and ICT regulatory bodies, national industry associations, and international industry organisations such as the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), officially released company results and figures, and international and national industry news agencies. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 55 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. [...]... deployment of a Wi-Fi network covering more than 200 public venues © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 14 Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 IT Growth And Drivers 2010 IT Market Sizes Most Asian IT markets are expected to US$mn* report stronger growth in 2010 Across the region, 2010 should see IT spending a boost from systems upgrades deferred from the previous year, although much will... Page 25 Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 E-Government In addition to computers in schools, a number of e-government projects continued to be rolled out last year, despite the economic uncertainty In mid -2010, the Australian government is expected to launch a standardised reporting system scheme The programme will involve implementation of a platform allowing business to submit reports... Hardware Australian computer hardware sales are projected at US$8.0bn in 2010 and, following a deceleration in 2009, are forecast to grow at a 2010- 2014 CAGR of around 4% to reach US$9.3bn by 2014 The main drivers of growth in the PC segment will be government programmes, growing broadband penetration and © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 20 Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 greater... particularly in the second half of 2010, from computer hardware tenders delayed from 2009 Sales of Microsoft’s Windows 7 operating system and new Intel core technology also has the potential to help trigger a new cycle of hardware upgrades in 2010, although much will depend on business confidence © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 21 Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 A number of government... Page 13 Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 A similarly broad range is found with respect to internet penetration The highest levels of internet penetration are found in South Korea, Hong Kong and Australia, with estimated 2010 narrowband penetration rates of 74.3%, 73% and 67.7% respectively Singapore has by far the highest rate of broadband penetration, which was estimated at 134% in 2010. .. to 37 secondary schools 2,041 State New South Wales Victoria South Australia Source: Official figures, BMI © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 27 Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 Industry Forecast Scenario Australia s IT market should continue to provide opportunities in consumer, government and business sectors in 2010, following a better-than-expected performance in 2009 The total... demand for Australian raw materials Indeed, Chinese consumption for Australian exports makes up approximately 5% of GDP, © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 33 Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 given that it accounts for about one-quarter of all exports In a worst case scenario, a 50% collapse in export demand – returning to pre-boom levels – would be sufficient to pull Australia s... improved trading conditions for IT vendors India and Malaysia were the gained most in our rankings for Q31 0, but many markets recorded stronger than expected year-on-year growth in computer shipments in Q110 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 10 Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 Australia retains its top regional rating this quarter In Q110, a number of IT projects delayed from 2009... Expo Source: BMI in 2010 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 15 Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 The long-term potential of India’s IT market is plain: less than 3% of people in India own a computer (about one-fifth of the level in China), meaning particular potential in the lower-end product range India’s IT market appears to be positioned for a strong recovery in 2010 thanks to improving... education programmes were to have provided almost AUD260mn of computers Market Drivers A number of factors underpin our forecast of a 5% 2010- 2014 CAGR for the Australian IT market First, © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 28 Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 ambitious government ICT programmes, such as the National Broadband Network project, are already budgeted and well established . Publication Date: July 2010 Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 2 Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 © Business. Expo in 2010. 2010 IT Market Sizes US$mn* *estimates. Source: BMI IT Market Sizes As % Of National GDPs 2010- 2014 Source: BMI Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 . verticals, but in 2010, Market Structure (% Of Total IT Market) 2010f 2014f f = forecast. Scores out of 100. Source: BMI Australia Information Technology Report Q3 2010 © Business