Q4 2015 www.bmiresearch.com INDONESIA INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY REPORT INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2019 ISSN 1750-5070 Published by:BMI Research Indonesia Information Technology Report Q4 2015 INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2019 Part of BMI’s Industry Report & Forecasts Series Published by: BMI Research Copy deadline: July 2015 BMI Research Senator House 85 Queen Victoria Street London EC4V 4AB United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: subs@bmiresearch.com Web: http://www.bmiresearch.com © 2015 Business Monitor International Ltd All rights reserved. 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All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International Ltd makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. Indonesia Information Technology Report Q4 2015 INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2019 Part of BMI’s Industry Report & Forecasts Series Published by: BMI Research Copy deadline: July 2015 BMI Research Senator House 85 Queen Victoria Street London EC4V 4AB United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: subs@bmiresearch.com Web: http://www.bmiresearch.com © 2015 Business Monitor International Ltd All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International Ltd, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any means graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omissions affecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International Ltd makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. Indonesia Information Technology Report Q4 2015 CONTENTS BMI Industry View . SWOT IT SWOT Political . 11 Economic . 13 Operational Risk . 15 Industry Forecast 17 Table: IT Industry - Historical Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2012-2019) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Macroeconomic Forecasts . 24 Indonesia - Economic Growth Unlikely To Rebound Significantly . 24 Industry Risk Reward Index . 27 Table: Asia Pacific IT Risk/Reward Index - Q415 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Market Overview . 31 Hardware . Software . Cloud Computing . IT Services 31 39 43 47 Industry Trends And Developments 51 Regulatory Development 56 Table: Key Ministers And Departments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 Competitive Landscape 61 International Companies . 61 Table: Lenovo Indonesia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 Table: Intel Indonesia Corporation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 Table: Microsoft Indonesia PT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 Table: IBM Indonesia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 Table: Foxconn Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 Local Companies . 66 Table: Performance PT Multipolar Technology Tbk (MLPT) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 Table: Walden Global Services (WGS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 Table: Aprisma Indonesia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 Table: ALTiUS ERP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 Regional Overview 69 Demographic Forecast . 72 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page Indonesia Information Technology Report Q4 2015 Demographic Outlook 72 Table: Population Headline Indicators (Indonesia 1990-2025) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 Table: Key Population Ratios (Indonesia 1990-2025) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (Indonesia 1990-2025) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 Table: Population By Age Group (Indonesia 1990-2025) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 Table: Population By Age Group % (Indonesia 1990-2025) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 Methodology 77 Industry Forecast Methodology 77 Sources 78 Risk/Reward Index Methodology . 79 Table: It Risk/Reward Index Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 Table: Weighting Of Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page Indonesia Information Technology Report Q4 2015 BMI Industry View BMI View: Low PC penetration rate, enterprise and public service modernisation and an emerging middle class coupled with strong economic growth will be driving the Indonesian IT sector growth. GDP growth of CAGR 6.5% over the next four years will outweigh depreciation of rupiah. Boosted by a number of key drivers, IT spending will increase to IDR289.7trn in 2019. BMI believes that retail hardware, enterprise software and cloud computing in particular would provide strong growth opportunities. Headline Expenditure Projections ■ Computer Hardware Sales: IDR100.5trn in 2015 to IDR142.0trn in 2019, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.5% in local currency terms. Even after strong growth in recent years a high hardware spending growth rate should be maintained in Indonesia with plenty of spare capacity due to new entrants to the market 2015-2019 as household incomes rise. ■ Software Sales: IDR29.18trn in 2015 to IDR56.64trn in 2019, at a CAGR of 18.5% in local currency terms. Piracy is a major drag on software market growth, but new legislation could help reduce the drag from 2015, pushing the software growth rate higher as enterprise modernisation initiatives gather pace. ■ IT Services Sales: IDR46.63trn in 2015 to IDR91.12trn in 2019, at a CAGR of 18.7% in local currency terms. Improvements in network infrastructure and increased awareness among local enterprises will ensure strong growth in cloud service adoption, which we expect to be a key demand driver for IT services 2015-2019. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page Indonesia Information Technology Report Q4 2015 Services Subsector To Outperform In IT Sector Indonesia IT Sector Growth, 2012-2019, IDRbn Source: BMI © Business Monitor International Ltd Page Indonesia Information Technology Report Q4 2015 SWOT IT SWOT SWOT Analysis Strengths ■ Large potential market with population of 252mn at the end of 2013, and forecast to reach almost 290mn in 2019. ■ The market may be entering a faster stage of 'catch-up' growth. It is expected to grow quicker than most other Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) markets over the forecast period. ■ Local presence of major global vendors in terms of sales and production, providing linkages for local start-ups and entrepreneurs. Weaknesses ■ Underdeveloped telecommunications infrastructure, due to years of government control and slow progress in deregulation. ■ History of recent political instability. ■ High piracy rate continues to be a drag on the software market, with the highest piracy rate in the region and slow progress in reducing incidence of unlicensed software. ■ Indonesia overtook China as the largest source of cyber attack traffic in 2013, with cyber threats becoming an increasingly important issue for domestic users as well. Opportunities ■ Booming mobile and e-commerce market, creating demand for devices and enterprise retail solutions. ■ Investment in telecoms and datacentre infrastructure should lay the foundations for rapid growth of cloud computing services, with small- and medium-sized enterprises considering a particularly attractive target group. ■ New copyright law in 2015 should help reduce incidence of software piracy. ■ Computer ownership is low, but rising incomes and wider internet access will enable period of rapid 'catch-up growth'. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page © Business Monitor International Page 75 Indonesia Information Technology Report Q4 2014 Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) - Continued 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013e 2015f 2020f 75-79 years 1,221 1,330 1,585 1,791 1,987 2,328 2,556 2,900 80-84 years 579 687 761 1,100 1,349 1,235 1,196 1,569 85-89 years 179 233 282 319 470 564 592 540 90-94 years 35 46 61 75 87 112 132 171 95-99 years 12 12 14 22 100+ years e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, World Bank, UN Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013e 2015f 2020f 0-4 years 12.26 11.11 10.06 10.13 10.42 9.55 8.92 8.20 5-9 years 12.37 11.17 10.24 9.98 10.00 9.97 9.75 8.42 10-14 years 11.78 11.37 10.35 9.89 9.41 9.36 9.38 9.23 15-19 years 10.98 10.77 10.52 9.56 8.63 8.68 8.80 8.85 20-24 years 9.95 9.96 9.91 9.03 8.21 8.03 8.03 8.27 25-29 years 8.63 9.01 9.13 9.00 8.82 8.07 7.63 7.54 30-34 years 7.27 7.81 8.26 8.26 8.21 8.31 8.21 7.16 35-39 years 5.58 6.56 7.15 7.46 7.67 7.64 7.64 7.70 40-44 years 4.36 5.00 5.98 6.48 6.86 7.04 7.12 7.16 45-49 years 4.04 3.88 4.52 5.25 5.83 6.15 6.33 6.63 50-54 years 3.66 3.54 3.46 4.17 4.80 5.12 5.33 5.84 55-59 years 3.01 3.14 3.10 3.34 3.58 4.01 4.32 4.85 60-64 years 2.31 2.50 2.66 2.59 2.56 2.86 3.13 3.83 65-69 years 1.60 1.83 2.01 1.99 1.95 2.03 2.15 2.67 70-74 years 1.08 1.16 1.36 1.41 1.44 1.48 1.52 1.71 75-79 years 0.68 0.69 0.76 0.80 0.83 0.93 1.00 1.08 80-84 years 0.32 0.35 0.36 0.49 0.56 0.49 0.47 0.58 85-89 years 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.14 0.20 0.23 0.23 0.20 90-94 years 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.06 95-99 years 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 © Business Monitor International Page 76 Indonesia Information Technology Report Q4 2014 Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) - Continued 100+ years 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013e 2015f 2020f 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, World Bank, UN Table: Indonesia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 Dependent ratio, % of total working age Dependent population, total, '000 Active population, % of total Active population, total, '000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013e 2015f 2020f 67.3 60.8 54.6 53.5 53.5 51.7 50.3 47.4 71,844 73,413 73,807 78,280 83,848 85,201 85,603 86,665 59.8 62.2 64.7 65.1 65.2 65.9 66.5 67.8 106,790 120,700 135,132 146,201 156,828 164,665 170,106 182,749 Youth population, % of total working age 60.9 54.1 47.4 46.1 45.8 43.8 42.2 38.1 65,054 65,316 64,060 67,351 71,792 72,183 71,728 69,660 Pensionable population, % of total working age 6.4 6.7 7.2 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.2 9.3 Pensionable population, total, '000 6,789 8,097 9,747 10,929 12,057 13,018 13,875 17,005 Youth population, total, '000 e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, World Bank, UN Table: Indonesia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013e 2015f 2020f Urban population, % of total 30.6 35.6 42.0 45.9 49.9 52.2 53.7 57.2 Rural population, % of total 69.4 64.4 58.0 54.1 50.1 47.8 46.3 42.8 Urban population, total, '000 54,633 69,015 87,758 103,120 120,155 130,453 137,400 154,123 Rural population, total, '000 124,000 125,098 121,180 121,361 120,521 119,412 118,309 115,290 e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, World Bank, UN © Business Monitor International Page 77 Indonesia Information Technology Report Q4 2014 Methodology Industry Forecast Methodology BMI's industry forecasts are generated using the best-practice techniques of time-series modelling and causal/econometric modelling. The precise form of model we use varies from industry to industry, in each case being determined, as per standard practice, by the prevailing features of the industry data being examined. Common to our analysis of every industry is the use of vector autoregressions. They allow us to forecast a variable using more than its own history as explanatory information. For example, when forecasting oil prices, we can include information about oil consumption, supply and capacity. When forecasting for some of our industry sub-component variables, however, using a variable's own history is often the most desirable method of analysis. Such single-variable analysis is called univariate modelling. We use the most common and versatile form of univariate models: the autoregressive moving average model (ARMA). In some cases, ARMA techniques are inappropriate because there is insufficient historic data or data quality is poor. In such cases we use either traditional decomposition methods or smoothing methods as a basis for analysis and forecasting. We mainly use OLS estimators and in order to avoid relying on subjective views and encourage the use of objective views, BMI uses a 'general-to-specific' method. BMI mainly uses a linear model, but simple nonlinear models, such as the log-linear model, are used when necessary. During periods of 'industry shock', for example poor weather conditions impeding agricultural output, dummy variables are used to determine the level of impact. Effective forecasting depends on appropriately selected regression models. BMI selects the best model according to various different criteria and tests, including but not exclusive to: ■ R2 tests explanatory power; adjusted R2 takes degree of freedom into account; ■ Testing the directional movement and magnitude of coefficients; ■ Hypothesis testing to ensure coefficients are significant (normally t-test and/or P-value); ■ All results are assessed to alleviate issues related to auto-correlation and multi-collinearity;. © Business Monitor International Page 78 Indonesia Information Technology Report Q4 2014 BMI uses the selected best model to perform forecasting. Human intervention plays a necessary and desirable role in all of BMI's industry forecasting. Experience, expertise and knowledge of industry data and trends ensure analysts spot structural breaks, anomalous data, turning points and seasonal features where a purely mechanical forecasting process would not. Sector-Specific Methodology A number of criteria drive our forecasts for each IT variable. IT forecasting is complicated due to the fragmented nature of the market, with little transparency of vendor data and low apparent agreement between many sets of figures in terms of market definition, base and methodology. In addition, forecasts are affected by consideration of a variety of internal and external political and economic factors. Within best-practice techniques of time-series modelling, our quarterly updated forecasts are improved substantially by intimate knowledge of the prevailing features of each local market. Individual variables taken into account in creating each forecast include: ■ Overall economic context, and GDP and demographic trends; ■ Underlying 'information society' trends; ■ Projected GDP share of industry; ■ Maturity of market structure; ■ Regulatory developments and government policies; ■ Developments in key client sectors such as telecommunications, banking and e-government; ■ Technological developments and diffusion rates; ■ Exogenous events. Estimates are calculated using our own macroeconomic and demographic forecasts. Sources Additional sources used in IT reports include national ministries and ICT regulatory bodies, national industry associations, and international industry organisations such as the International Telecommunication © Business Monitor International Page 79 Indonesia Information Technology Report Q4 2014 Union (ITU), officially released company results and figures, and international and national industry news agencies. Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology BMI's Risk/Reward Ratings (RRR) provide a comparative regional ranking system evaluating the ease of doing business and the industry-specific opportunities and limitations for potential investors in a given market. The RRR system divides into two distinct areas: Rewards: Evaluation of sector's size and growth potential in each state, and also broader industry/state characteristics that may inhibit its development. This is further broken down into two sub categories: ■ Industry Rewards (an industry-specific category taking into account current industry size and growth forecasts, the openness of market to new entrants and foreign investors, to provide an overall score for pote [...]... Ltd Page 30 Indonesia Information Technology Report Q4 2015 Market Overview Hardware BMI has not changed its outlook for Indonesia in the Q41 5 update, but we continue to highlight the squeeze on growth from rupiah depreciation against the US dollar, which will erode Indonesian purchasing power in global markets We forecast local currency growth of 11.2% for the Indonesian hardware market in 2015 to a... netbooks had declined to a peripheral device category in the Indonesian market in terms of sales © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 35 Indonesia Information Technology Report Q4 2015 PC Volume Forecast (2012-2019) 7,500 5,000 2,500 0 2012 2013 2014e Indonesia - Desktop sales, '000 Indonesia - Tablet sales, '000 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f Indonesia - Notebook sales, '000 e/f = BMI estimate/forecast... volatility and weakness ahead (see 'Further Volatility Likely For The Embattled Rupiah', June 8 2015) © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 24 Indonesia Information Technology Report Q4 2015 Recovery To Remain Weak Indonesia - GDP At Constant Prices, % chg 7 6.5 6 5.5 5 4.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f Indonesia - Real GDP growth, % y-o-y BMI/IMF Meanwhile, the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) gave... development © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 28 Indonesia Information Technology Report Q4 2015 Indonesia is one market that currently scores ahead of India, and the gap widened in Q4 with an upward revision to the former's score based on our household income forecast, which points to robust retail hardware spending growth over the medium term In 2015 Indonesia remains a highly price sensitive market,... Page 17 Indonesia Information Technology Report Q4 2015 2015 Outlook BMI forecast IT market growth of 15.1% in 2015 in local currency terms, with total market value expected to reach a value of IDR176.3trn The strong economic outlook is fundamental to our IT market forecast as Indonesian consumers remain optimistic about job, finance and spending prospects We forecast real GDP growth of 5.3% in 2015 and... Ltd Page 19 Indonesia Information Technology Report Q4 2015 market However, strong income growth for the middle 60% and richest 20% of the population - with forecast CAGR of 10.5% and 12.2% respectively 2015- 2019 - will broaden the addressable market We have added an analysis of household income trends in Indonesia to provide additional context to the income stratification forecast In 2015 Indonesia. .. and USD5,000-10,000 bands to the USD5,000-10,000 and USD10,000-25,000 bands respectively Indonesia Household Income Distribution (%) LHS And Change ('000) RHS 2015 & 2015- 2019f f = BMI forecast Source: National sources, BMI © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 20 Indonesia Information Technology Report Q4 2015 A more active approach by the government to encourage IT development, including the... unrest, or at least a political backlash Additionally, Indonesia' s population is extremely young, with more than 50% of Indonesians younger than 30 Younger populations have historically been a predictor of political instability © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 12 Indonesia Information Technology Report Q4 2015 Economic SWOT Analysis Strengths ■ Indonesia' s strategic location between the Indian... Business Monitor International Ltd Page 26 Indonesia Information Technology Report Q4 2015 Industry Risk Reward Index BMI's IT Risk/Rewards Index (RRI) for Asia Pacific in Q4 2015 draws on the latest macroeconomic and industry data, as well as technological and regulatory trends, to provide a snapshot of regional IT markets The APAC RRI remains stable in Q4, with no change in positions, but several... should make the SME market a hard-fought battleground among vendors over the medium term © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 23 Indonesia Information Technology Report Q4 2015 Macroeconomic Forecasts Indonesia - Economic Growth Unlikely To Rebound Significantly BMI View: Indonesia' s real GDP growth will likely recover versus the Q115 level over the coming quarters, but significant headwinds stemming . Q4 2015 www.bmiresearch.com INDONESIA INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY REPORT INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2019 ISSN 1750-5070 Published by:BMI Research Indonesia Information Technology Report Q4 2015 INCLUDES. contained. Indonesia Information Technology Report Q4 2015 INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2019 Part of BMI’s Industry Report & Forecasts Series Published by: BMI Research Copy deadline: July 2015 BMI. driver for IT services 2015- 2019. Indonesia Information Technology Report Q4 2015 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 7 Services Subsector To Outperform In IT Sector Indonesia IT Sector Growth,