Essays in international migration

ESSAYS IN INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION AMARENDU NANDY (M.Sc., University of Burdwan, West Bengal, India) THESIS SUBMITTED IN FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY LEE KUAN YEW SCHOOL OF PUBLIC POLICY NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE 2009 ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT It is a pleasure and a privilege to be able to acknowledge the contributions of a long list of people and organizations that have made invaluable contributions at the various stages of the thesis. First, I would like to express my gratitude to the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (LKYSPP) for providing me an opportunity to pursue my Ph.D. degree at this esteemed university, and also for their help in providing me financial assistance during my candidature. I am greatly indebted to my supervisors Professor Mukul G. Asher and Assoc. Professor Dodo J. Thampapillai for their useful comments, support, and encouragement during the entire period of writing this thesis. Without their guidance and assistance, this dissertation would not have been completed. Both the supervisors gave their precious time very generously in supervising my research and made innumerable insightful comments and suggestions on the drafts reviewed. Professor Asher has always been a guiding light to me, in academic as well as in personal matters. I can never repay the intellectual debt and generosity that he has bestowed on me at all times. I would also like to thank Dr. Pundarik Mukhopadhaya, my other thesis committee member, who provided constant encouragement and inspiration at every step of my research. I would also like to express my sincere thanks and gratitude to Professor S. Irudaya Rajan at the Centre for Development Studies (CDS), Trivandrum for sharing the survey data for one of my essays of this thesis, and invaluable insights in his capacity as a leading expert in the area. Special thanks are due to Salim Sir and Ganapati Sir, under whom I gathered the interest and inspiration to pursue the study of Economics at the undergraduate level. Thanks are also due to all my teachers at the LKYSPP (Professor Bhanoji Rao, Professor M. Ramesh, Professor Wu Xun, iii Professor Lee Chung Min, and Professor Scott Fritzen) whose teachings and guidance have been invaluable, and will shape my professional thinking in the future. Among my family members, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my parents, who always encouraged me to pursue higher studies, earlier in Economics, and now in and Public Policy. They have always provided their affection, love, and active support during various stages of my life, including these crucial years of my Ph.D. research. Strong support and encouragement for this research has also been provided by my sister Pom, my brother-in-law Sumit, and my very close cousin, Papuda. All members of my extended family, both on paternal and maternal side, have always been a source of strength for me. I would specially like to express my thanks to my fiancé, Shampa, for always believing in me. She has been an inspiration and source of support throughout the period of my work. Among my fellow research scholars and friends, I wish to express my thanks to Rahul, Sadhana, Subir, Palash, Satya, Pradipto, Gautam (Kole), Tanay, Animesh, Sadananda, Sandip, Michael, Gurpreet, Biswajit, Joy, Gautam (Dalapati), Amitendu, Parama, Manjula, and Suvi for their help, support, and encouragement. Above all, I am thankful to God Almighty for providing me the strength and abilities to work on this thesis. He has always been generous in bestowing his blessings at every stage of my life. Although all the above have contributed one way or the other in the writing of this thesis, it goes without saying that I am solely responsible for any errors and omissions that might be still remaining in the thesis. AMARENDU NANDY May 28, 2009. iv CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ii CONTENTS iv LIST OF TABLES ix LIST OF FIGURES xii LIST OF APPENDICES xiv LIST OF ACRONYMS xv INTRODUCTION 1.1 The Migration Phenomenon 1.2 Broad Demographic Trends 17 1.3 The Intellectual Debates on International Migration 1.4 – A Brief Overview 26 Objectives and Organization of the Thesis 30 ESSAY GLOBALIZATION, DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGES, AND PUBLIC POLICIES TOWARDS MIGRATION 2.1 Migration in the Context of Globalization 39 2.2 Global Demographic Trends and Migration Implications 48 2.2.1 Size of the Population and Its Growth 50 2.2.2 Levels and Trends in Fertility and Mortality 56 2.2.3 International Migration Trends 61 v 2.2.4 Global Population Ageing 64 2.2.5 Urbanization 71 2.3 Globalization, Demographic Trends, and International Migration: Interrelationships and Policy Implications 75 2.3.1 Effects of Immigration 76 2.3.2 Effects of Demographic Trends (Population Ageing) 82 2.3.3 Global Demographic Transition: Policy Imperatives 88 2.4 Immigration, Population Ageing, and Migration Policies: Their Interrelationships in the Era of Globalization 96 2.5 Implications for Migration Management 107 2.6 Concluding Observations 111 ESSAY THE RETURN MIGRATION PHENOMENON: THE CASE OF KERALA 3.1 Introduction 125 3.2 Return Migration: Different Theoretical Paradigms 129 3.2.1 Neoclassical Economics and the New Economics of Labor Migration Frameworks 129 3.2.2 The Structural Approach to Return Migration 131 3.2.3 Transnationalism and Return Migration 134 3.2.4 Social Network Theory and Return Migration 135 3.3. The State of Kerala: An Overview 138 3.4 Studies on Kerala’s Emigration and Return Migration Experience 145 3.5 Research Questions 151 3.6 Data Sources and Research Methodology 152 3.6.1 Data Sources 152 vi 3.6.2 Methodology 155 3.7 Descriptive Statistics and Data Analysis 158 3.7.1 Return Migration: Magnitude, Rate, Origin, and Trends 158 3.7.2 Demographic Characteristics of Return Emigrants 163 3.7.3 Socio-Economic Characteristics of Return Emigrants 167 3.7.4 Occupational Distribution of Emigrants Before Emigration, at Destination, and after Return 172 3.7.5 Occupational Mobility of Return Emigrants 179 3.8 Potential Areas of Policy Intervention in the Emigration and Return Emigration Process in Kerala 186 3.8.1 Factors Impacting Emigration in Kerala 187 3.8.2 Information Channels 190 3.8.3 Costs of Emigrating 191 3.8.4 Sources of Financing 193 3.8.5 Working Conditions Abroad 195 3.8.6 Reasons for Return 196 3.8.7 Returns from Emigration 196 3.8.8 Perceptions on Rehabilitation among Return Emigrants 199 3.9 Past Policy Intiatives and Future Imperatives 203 3.10 Concluding Remarks 209 ESSAY REMITTANCES AND DEVELOPMENT: PUBLIC POLICY IMPERATIVES 4.1 Introduction 232 4.2 Remittances: Conceptual and Data Issues 236 4.2.1 Nature and Importance of Remittances 236 vii 4.2.2 Remittance Data: Issues and Challenges 239 4.3 Trends in Global Remittance Flows 243 4.3.1 Contemporary Trends in Remittance Flows 243 4.3.2 The Global Economic Crisis and Its Impact Migration Policies and Future Remittance Flows 250 4.4 Remittance and Development 254 4.4.1 Main Channels of Impact of Remittances on Recipient Countries 254 4.4.2 Brief Overview of Theoretical Approaches 258 4.4.3 Factors Impacting on Decision to Remit 260 4.4.4 Remittance and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence 263 4.4.5 Remittance and Macro-economic Stability 265 4.4.6 Remittance and Exchange Rate 267 4.4.7 Remittance as a Source of Foreign Exchange 268 4.4.8 Remittance and Their Impact on Health and Education Outcomes 269 4.4.9 Impact of Remittance on Poverty 271 4.4.10 Impact of Remittance on Inequality 273 4.5 Remittance and Development: The Indian Context 275 4.5.1 Measuring Worker’s Remittances in India 275 4.5.1.1 Mode and Remittances – Compensation of Employees 278 4.5.1.2 Data Issues – Some Policy Imperatives 279 4.5.2 Trends in Private Transfers (Worker’s Remittances) in India and Its Role in Macroeconomic Management 4.5.2.1 Current Trends in Composition of Remittances in India 282 282 viii 4.5.2.2 Role of Remittances in India’s Macroeconomic Management 287 4.5.2.3 India’s Comparative Position on Remittances 292 4.5.2.4 Primary Source Regions 294 4.5.2.5 Utilization Pattern of Remittances in India: Evidence from RBI Survey 299 4.6 Remittance Policy Imperatives for India 302 4.7 Concluding Remarks 310 CONCLUDING REMARKS 319 REFERENCES 324 ix List of Tables Table No. Page Introduction Table 1.1: Trends in International Migration Stock, Their Distribution, and Share in the Population, 1990-2005 Table 1.2: Top 10 Countries/Areas with Highest Number of International Migrants, 1990 and 2005 Table 1.3: Share of Female Migrants in Total International Migrants – 1960, 1990 and 2005 Table 1.4: Factors Impacting Migration – By Migrant Type 12 16 Essay Table 2.1: Population and Its Distribution in 1950, 1975, 2009 and 2050 (By Global, Major Development Group, and Major Areas) 51 Table 2.2: Countries and Areas Where Population is Expected to Decline Between 2000-2050 52 Table 2.3: Total Fertility for the World and Major Areas, 1965-1970, 2005-2010 and 2045-2050 57 Table 2.4: Life Expectancy at Birth for Sexes Combined, By Major Area, Selected Periods 59 Table 2.5: International Migrants, Their Percentage Distribution By Major Areas and Gender, 1990-2010 62 Table 2.6: Distribution of the Population of the World and Major Areas By Broad Age Groups, 2010 and 2050 (Medium Variant) 65 Table 2.7: Macroeconomic Impact of Demographic Changes: Evidence From Panel Instrumental Variable Regressions 85 Essay Table 3.1: Stocks of Indian Migrant Population in the Gulf Countries – 1975, 1991, 2001 146 Table 3.2: Labor Outflows from India to the Gulf and Other Countries, 2000-2005 Table 3.3: Workers Granted Emigration Clearance By Government of 148 x India, By Major Indian States, 1995-2005 149 Table 3.4: Kerala Migration Study (KMS): Survey Details 154 Table 3.5: District-Wise Distribution of Return Migrants in Kerala, 1998 159 Table 3.6: Countries from Which Emigrants Return 160 Table 3.7: Return Emigrants By Year of Return 161 Table 3.8: Proportion of Females Among Emigrants and Return Emigrants By District 164 Table 3.9: Age Distribution of Emigrants and Return Emigrants 165 Table 3.10: Marital Status of Emigrants and Return Migrants By Sex 166 Table 3.11a: Distribution of Return Emigrants by Community, 2001 168 Table 3.11b: Distribution of Return Emigrants by Community, 1998 168 Table 3.12: Educational Attainment of Return Emigrants, 2001 171 Table 3.13: Occupational Distribution of Emigrants and Return Emigrants Before Migration, at Destination, and After Return 173 Table 3.14: Economic Sector Among Employed Persons Before Emigration in Kerala, in the Gulf, and After Return to Kerala Table 3.15: Annual Income of return Emigrants Before Emigration, 2001 176 177 Table 3.16: Economic Sector of Activity of Return Emigrants Before Emigration and in the Gulf 180 Table 3.17: Economic Sector of Activity of Return Emigrants Before Emigration and in Kerala After Return 181 Table 3.18: Percent of Return Emigrants in an Economic Sector Who Moved to Other Sectors before Emigration and After Return To Kerala 183 Table 3.19: Proportion of Workers Who Retained Their Sector of Activity Before Emigration and After Return to Kerala 185 Table 3.20: Determinants of Migration in Kerala: Results of the Multi-level Model 188 Table 3.21: Average Cost of Emigration from Kerala to the Gulf, 1998 And 2001 192 Table 3.22: Sources of Financing of Emigration of the Returned 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[...]... of the increase in the number of international migrants between 1990 and 2005 (33 out of 36 million) In developing countries, the migrant stock stagnated during the period It declined in 1990-1995 and increased slowly from 1995 to 2005 The increase in the number of international migrants in certain developing countries was counterbalanced by declines in the number of migrants in other developing 7 Between... percent in 1990 to 33.5 percent in 2005 Therefore, international migrants have increasingly concentrated in the United States in the post-Cold war period, but destinations other than the United States have diversified (UN DESA, 2009) 11 The drop in the number of refugees is one of the main reasons for the slow increase in the number of migrants in most developing regions and the decline observed in Latin... contemporary international migration is unambiguously increasing in scale and diversifying in scope Currently, almost all countries participate in the migration system as countries of origin, transit, or destination, and many play all three roles The phenomenon of migration has become intertwined with the process of globalization, which may be characterized as the widening, deepening, and speeding up of... 1.1 for a note on issues and challenges relating to collection and dissemination of international migration statistics 5 Table 1.1 Trends in International Migration Stock, Their Distribution, and Share in the Population, 1990-2005 Number of international migrants (millions) Increment (millions) Percentage distribution of international migrants (millions) International Migrants as percentage of total... the world witnessed an upsurge in international migration, particularly in skilled labor migration The upsurge in international labor movements in the recent decades reflects among others the changing policy dynamics in countries across the globe following the fall of the Iron Curtain5 (Lemaitre, 2005), in conjunction with the growing globalization of economic activity In addition, demographic imbalances... Database ILO International Labor Organization IMF International Monetary Fund IOM International Orgnanization for Migration KMS Kerala Migration Study LDC Less Developing Countries LIBOR London Interbank Offered Rate MERCOSUR Mercado Común del Sur (Southern Common Market) MOIA Ministry of Overseas Indian Affairs MOM Ministry of Manpower (Singapore) MoU Memorandum of Understanding MPR Migration Prevalence... for International Migration GDP Gross Domestic Product GNI Gross National Income GNDI Gross National Disposable Income HMR Household Migration Rate HTA Home-Town Associations IADB Inter-American Development Bank IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development xvi IIM Indian Institute of Management IT Information Technology ICT Information and Communication Technology ILM International Labor Migration. .. migrants living outside of their countries of birth Since then, the share of female migrants among all international migrants has been rising steadily, to reach 49 percent in 1990 and nearly 50 percent in 2005 Although this trend is consistent with an increasing ‘feminization’ of international migration (Zlotnik, 2003), the increase recorded is relatively small compared to the high level of feminization... disintegrated in 1991, the former Yugoslavia split in 1992, and the former Czechoslovakia was divided in 1993 (UN DESA, 2006) 7 countries The repatriation of refugees, in particular, counterbalanced the increases in economically-motivated migration in Asia and in other parts of the developing world (UN DESA, 2006) (iv) As a result of the above trends, there has been an increasing concentration of international. .. population has declined in these three regions since 199011 (Table 1.1) Table 1.2 provides a list of the top 10 countries with the highest number of international migrants in 1990 and 2005 The Table provides an insight into an important facet of contemporary international migration It suggests that a relatively small majority of countries host the bulk of all international migrants In 1990, the top 10 . ILO International Labor Organization IMF International Monetary Fund IOM International Orgnanization for Migration KMS Kerala Migration Study LDC Less Developing Countries LIBOR London Interbank. on the more recent trends in international migration. This is followed by a brief overview of the intellectual debates on international migration in Section 1.2. The final section sets out the. Emigration Process in Kerala 186 3.8.1 Factors Impacting Emigration in Kerala 187 3.8.2 Information Channels 190 3.8.3 Costs of Emigrating 191 3.8.4 Sources of Financing 193 3.8.5 Working Conditions