C3 Economic risk Financing risk Commercial risk Political risk Business environment risk Euler Hermes Economic Research 2 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14e 15f Vietnam ASEAN 0 5 10 15 20 25 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Inflation y/y % Policy rate 3 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Latin America plus Mexico Mexico Colombia Venezuela 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% General gov. gross debt (right scale) General gov. net lending (left scale) -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Foreign debt (% GDP, left scale) Current account (% GDP, right scale) GDP growth (y/y, 4 qtrs cumulated %) Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Venezuela World Latin America -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real domestic credit growth (y/y growth rate) 15 000 16 000 17 000 18 000 19 000 20 000 21 000 22 000 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14