lomborg (ed.) - global crisis, global solutions, 2nd ed. (2009)

This page intentionally left blank Global Crises, Global Solutions Second edition The  rst edition of Global Crises, Global Solutions was nominated as one of the books of the year by The Economist in 2004. This new edition is entirely revised and updated but retains the format that made the  rst edition a bestseller and one of the most widely discussed policy books of recent times. If we had more money to spend to help the world’s poorest people, where could we spend it most e ectively? Using a common framework of cost-bene t analysis, a team of leading economists, including  ve Nobel Prize winners, assess the attractiveness of a wide range of policy options for combating ten of the world’s biggest problems: air pollution, con icts, diseases, education, global warming, malnutrition and hunger, sanitation and clean water, subsidies and trade barriers, terrorism, women and development. The arguments are clearly presented and fully referenced so that readers are encouraged to make their own evaluation of the menu of policy options on o er. Whether you agree or disagree with the economists’ conclusions, there is a wealth of data and ideas to discuss and debate! BJØRN LOMBORG is Director of the Copenhagen Consensus Center and Adjunct Professor in the Department of Management, Politics and Philosophy at Copenhagen Business School. He is the author of the controversial bestseller, The Skeptical Environmentalist (Cambridge, 2001), and was named as one of the most globally in uential people by Time magazine in 2004. Global Crises, Global Solutions   Edited by BJØRN LOMBORG    Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo, Delhi Cambridge University Press The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 8RU, UK Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521741224 © Cambridge University Press 2009 This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published 2009 Reprinted 2010 Printed in the United Kingdom at the University Press, Cambridge A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library ISBN 978-0-521-57121-8 hardback ISBN 978-0-52174122-4 paperback Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third-party Internet websites referred to in this publication, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. Information regarding prices, travel timetables and other factual information given in this work are correct at the time of  rst printing but Cambridge University Press does not guarantee the accuracy of such information thereafter. Delhi, Dubai, Tokyo v List of  gures vii List of tables x List of contributors xv Acknowledgements xxiv List of abbreviations and acronyms xxv Introduction 1 Bjørn Lomborg PART I THE CHALLENGES 1 Air pollution 7 Bjørn Larsen, with Guy Hutton and Neha Khanna   1.1 Jitendra Shah 50 2 The security challenge in con ict-prone countries 58 Paul Collier, Lisa Chauvet, and Håvard Hegre   2.1 Ibrahim A. Elbadawi 104 2.2 Andrew Mack 115 3 Disease control 126 Dean T. Jamison, Prabhat Jha, and David E. Bloom   3.1 David Canning 164 3.2 Ramanan Laxminarayan 172 4 The bene ts and costs of alternative strategies to improve educational outcomes 180 Peter F. Orazem, Paul Glewwe, and Harry Patrinos   4.1 Victor Lavy 215 4.2 Lant Pritchett 227 Contents vi Contents 5 Climate change 236 Gary W. Yohe, Richard S.J. Tol, Richard G. Richels, and Geo rey J. Blanford   5.1 Chris Green 281 5.2 Anil Markandya 298 6 Hunger and malnutrition 305 Sue Horton, Harold Alderman, and Juan A. Rivera   6.1 Reynaldo Martorell 334 6.2 Anil B. Deolalikar 347 7 Water and sanitation 355 Dale Whittington, W. Michael Hanemann, Claudia Sado , and Marc Jeuland   7.1 Jennifer Davis 430 7.2 Frank R. Rijsberman and Alix Peterson Zwane 440 8 The challenge of reducing international trade and migration barriers 451 Kym Anderson and L. Alan Winters   8.1 Alan V. Deardor 504 8.2 Anthony J. Venables 511 9 Transnational terrorism 516 Todd Sandler, Daniel G. Arce and Walter Enders   9.1 S. Brock Blomberg 563 9.2 Michael D. Intriligator 577 10 Women and development 585 Elizabeth M. King, Stephan Klasen, and Maria Porter   10.1 Lawrence Haddad 638 10.2 Aysit Tansel 642 PART II RANKING THE OPPORTUNITIES Expert panel ranking 657 Jagdish Bhagwati, Francois Bourgignon, Finn E. Kydland, Robert Mundell, Douglass C. North, Thomas C. Schelling, Vernon L. Smith and Nancy L. Stokey Conclusion 680 Bjørn Lomborg vii 1.1 Annual deaths from household SFU air pollution, 2002 9 1.2 Household SFU prevalence rates and GNI per capita 10 1.3 Deaths from SFU in relation to child mortality rates and life expectancy 11 1.4 Demographic projections, 2005–55 12 1.5 Population weighted exposure to indoor particulates (PM 10) 14 1.6 Stove e ciency and capital costs 16 1.7 Household use of fuel wood, by children’s underweight status 23 1.8 B/C ratio of fuel substitution, relative to ignoring nutritional status 24 1.9 Estimated deaths from urban PM, 2002 26 1.1.1 PM 10 levels in selected cities in Asia, 2005 and 2006 51 1.1.2 Ranking of measures to reduce tra c emissions in Mexico City 55 2.1 Armed con icts by intensity, 1946–2006 61 2.2 Armed con icts, by region, 1946–2006 62 2.3 Number of con icts and of new con icts, 1950–2006 62 2.2.1 Average number of coups per year in SSA, 1946–2006 124 3.1 Age distribution of deaths of children under  ve in low- and middle-income countries, 2001 132 3.2 Changes in GDP and full income per capita in Kenya, 1960–2000 135 3.3 Intervention costs and e ects: a more general view 137 3.4 Under- ve deaths from HIV/AIDs, malaria, and other causes, 1990 and 2001, SSA 140 3.5 Increase in tobacco-related deaths as populations age 149 3.2.1 PHC infrastructure 173 3.2.2 PHC sta ng 173 4.1 Returns to schooling, by high and low values of the Heritage Economic Freedom Index, 1990–2004 183 4.2 Distribution of self-reported literacy by grade attainment for youth aged 15–24, various countries 184 4.3A Proportion of male and female urban population completing grades 1, 5, and 9 in seventy-two developing countries 188 4.3B Proportion of male and female rural population completing grades 1, 5, and 9 in seventy-two developing countries 189 4.4A Proportion of male urban and rural population completing grades 1, 5, and 9 in seventy-two developing countries 190 4.4B Proportion of female urban and rural population completing grades 1, 5, and 9 in seventy-two developing countries 190 5.1 Identifying the signal of anthropogenic warming on continental scales 238 5.2A Emissions distributions over time across the four SRES storylines of economic development 242 5.2B Projections of surface temperatures for the 2020s and 2090s 243 5.3 Potential changes in cereal yields, 2080s 247 5.4A Geographical distribution of vulnerability, 2050 249 Figures viii List of  gures 5.4B Geographical distribution of vulnerability, 2100 249 5.5A Geographical distribution across India of stress from climate change and globalization 250 5.5B Climate change can be its own source of multiple stress 251 5.6 Emissions for alternative policies, 2000–2140 254 5.7 Increases in global mean temperature for alternative policies, 2000–2140 255 5.8 Trajectories of global damages for the  ve alternatives, 2000–2300 257 5.9 Trajectories of global bene ts for the  ve intervention policies, 2000–2300 257 5.10 Trajectories of global bene ts for the alternative approaches, 2000–2300 259 5.11 Trajectories of estimated market damages, 2000–2300 260 5.12 Trajectories of estimated non- market damages, 2000–2300 261 5.13 Trajectories of global bene ts for the four intervention policies, 2000–2100 262 5.14 Cumulative distribution of MPV of mitigation only for the “when  exibility” benchmark 264 5.15 Cumulative distributions of bene ts of mitigation only for the “when  exibility” benchmark, 2050–2300 264 5.1.1 Impact of technology on global carbon emissions, 2000–2100 284 5.2.1 Range of damage estimates in di erent studies 299 5.2.2 Range of studies on climate impacts 300 6.1.1 Prevalence of stunting, underweight, wasting, and obesity in children < ve years in Bolivia 336 6.1.2 Mean Z-scores for height-for-age relative to WHO standards in national data for Peru, 2000 337 6.2.1 The world’s child malnutrition problem: South Asia and SSA 348 6.2.2 Child nutrition rates, by per capita expenditure quintile, 2000 349 6.2.3 Projected decline in percent of underweight children, 1998–2015, India 350 6.2.4 Estimated contributions of factors to reductions in developing- country child malnutrition, 1970–95 351 7.1 Infrastructure coverage as a function of household income, from Komives et al. (2003) 371 7.2 Demand curve for water as a function of collection time, identifying two types of bene ts obtained (time-savings and quantity-related bene ts) 380 7.3 Network water and sanitation services: distribution of bene t–cost ratio outcomes from Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 draws) with uniform parameter distributions, assuming a) 60–90% and b) 100% e ectiveness against diarrheal disease 384 7.4 Network water and sanitation intervention sensitivity analyses: e ect of selected parameters on BCR (90% con dence intervals, holding other parameters at base case values) 385 7.5 Network water and sanitation intervention: the e ect of the VSL parameter on the BCR simulation outcomes 386 7.6 Borehole with public hand pump: distribution of BCR outcomes from Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 draws) with uniform parameter distributions 394 7.7 Comparison of cumulative distribution of BCR outcomes for borehole and public hand pump given assumptions about parameter distributions (uniform or normal) 394 7.8 Deep borehole with public hand pump – sensitivity analyses: e ect of selected parameters on BCR [...]... full global liberalization of goods and services trade Import-weighted average applied tariffs, by sector and country, 2005 Impacts on real income from full liberalization of global merchandise trade, by country/ region, 2015 Regional and sectoral source of gains from full liberalization of global merchandise trade, developing and high-income countries, 2015 Impact of full liberalization of high-income... 55 percent started school but dropped out: 26 million of today’s four-year-olds will not complete five grades of schooling • Global warming: Global warming is by definition a global challenge, which could have a large number of important consequences such as increasing food and water insecurity, threatening ecosystem health and low-lying coastal populations while damaging the world economy • Malnutrition... acronyms VSL VSLY VOC WA WHO value of a statistical life value of a statistical life year volatile organic compound weight-for-age World Health Organization WTO WTP YLD YLL World Trade Organization willingness-to-pay years lived with a disability years of life lost xxvii Introduction BJØRN LOMBORG This book is about doing what is rational instead of what is fashionable It is fashionable to declare that we... sector Examples of projected impacts, by region Global- scale climate impacts by 2080 Regional-scale climate impacts by 2080 MERGE emissions scenarios Policies, costs, benefits, and B/C ratios Costs, benefits, and B/C ratios for dynamically flexible mitigation Electric generation technology assumptions Non-electric energy technology assumptions Emission-reduction wedges required to follow different WRE... benefits, costs, and benefit–cost ratios based on 3% discount rate Estimates of homeland security Activity recorded for the Taliban and al-Qaida The seven impact countries over the five-year post-sample period Economic cost of international cooperation The thirty-nine impact lowincome countries Solutions: benefits, costs, and benefit–cost ratios Causes of maternal mortality and morbidity (%) Fertility... benefit/cost benefit–cost ratio Central African Republic cost-benefit cost-benefit analysis chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear carbon capture and storage conditional cash transfer Centers for Disease Control and Prevention cost-effectiveness case fatality rate computable general equilibrium Commonwealth of Independent States community-led total sanitation chemical mass balance Commission on... fuel in Dakar, Senegal B/C ratios for in-use diesel vehicle retrofit PM control in Dakar, Senegal B/C ratios for low-sulfur diesel and PM control technology in Bogotà, Colombia B/C ratios for vehicle PM emission controls in Lima, Peru Summary of B/C ratios for vehicle PM emission control Examples of B/C studies of outdoor air pollution control in low- and middle-income countries Examples of B/C studies... mortality in the twentieth century Causes of under-five mortality, worldwide, 2005 Causes of death in low- and middle-income countries, age five and older Discounted YLL at different ages of death for several DALY formulations Disease control: key investment priorities Neglected low-cost opportunities and high-cost interventions in South Asia and SSA Sensitivity analysis Provider absence rates, by country... research interests are school-based management, demand-side financing, and public–private partnerships His recent publications are Quality of Schooling, Returns to Schooling and the 1981 Vouchers Reform in Chile (Working Paper, World Bank, 2008) and Empowering parents to improve education: evidence from rural Mexico (Working Paper, World Bank, 2008) Maria Porter is Post-doctoral Fellow, Center for... terrorism, global and regional public goods, and environmental economics He applies theoretical and empirical models of economics to the study of international political economy, defense, environmental issues, and public finance He is particularly interested in the application of game theory (non-cooperative and cooperative) and microeconomics to issues in international relations His publications include Global . blank Global Crises, Global Solutions Second edition The  rst edition of Global Crises, Global Solutions was nominated as one of the books of the year by The Economist in 2004. This new edition. (Cambridge, 200 1), and was named as one of the most globally in uential people by Time magazine in 2004. Global Crises, Global Solutions   Edited by BJØRN LOMBORG . published 2009 Reprinted 2010 Printed in the United Kingdom at the University Press, Cambridge A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library ISBN 97 8-0 -5 2 1-5 712 1-8