reinhart & rogoff - this time is different; eight centuries of financial folly (2009)

[...]... CumuJ.tlw frequency of OCCUrT~nce> 182 7-2 003 The run-lIJ' in go"c'ttIm~nt domestic and "",~mal ond l"ar of cri ,is, 18CO-looB C:>n",,,,,,,... 18CO-looB C:>n",,,,,,, prlc bcf", , duri, ,& lind lIhr domestic lind ""tis and year of ;", 18QO .-2 008 Who is CXf"1lP1"i:llcd r~ idc."ts or fur~il:nc,,1 Th< prob.1bility of oon'~"l< nd extt'rrtoJ doofuult, l8OJ-2006 Composite probobHlty of oom.,"k default a a ,h.", of ,Illion Pan IV l:-rooJem our dtscu"ion to in< lude "rt rd"ed to bilnkln~, curr nq, and inllOllon Unrll ""'Y "",~ntly, 11 study of bankln~ crise h" t\l'ic.lly foc", ,-, nI: ,,,rm: All counlric "nd La,in Amc'Tb 191 4-1 959 So",re~ f coomries in dd"uh Of ""tructuring 19OJ -2 008 R.tiO'l public debt to re"~nu~ dulin~ e>t,,,,,,,l dd'.ult: E~hly·ninc "i""",", 182 7-2 001 R.""" of public debllO n,,"< ,ue 00,1, ,& ",,'emal lkfauh: Freq""""y of och of 1929... imkperulc'nce) to 2008 Summary of the incid of this b::x>1: is eonlai",'lj') 'Imple t.bl", and li~ u,,,,, in "'hkh ,he", arc rre"'nt . Folly CARMEN M. REINHART KENNETH S. ROGOFF PtlnUIoR alld Orford Copyrighted malElrlal e- c:> JOO9", fri><.<t"" Uni_", P=o 1'ubUhOO", 1'nn<<<On U""""'''' rrn ~1 Willi>a S<=<, """'"on, ~. J.". F'n,n«.1 L,h<mli::u~'n ('"",i,.1 Flo~ l~~,.n",., C, ,-~ ht o."b, .ftc! A""" I'"co' O'~""I''''''''' Tl.,N-b in rl.e Fin,n<i,llt,d"",l' ~ 161 11 . ~, n", OCDI 1nJ<, l~9 r'~nrn5" Oh'Jl,,1 Fin"" , -& quot;I C,i,;' !60 11>< 50""'''0'''>: ,,( Cru." A I'''''O'H'' 170 5<'''''''",1' !71 ,; Copyrighted maerial e='iJ Wi'll" Hove W,·tx",n<>.l? Z75 " Rcll"",iOru On Early