DELPHI RESEARCH AND INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION Dušan Drbohlav Zdeněk Čermák Dagmar Dzúrová Eva Janská Dita Čermáková Lenka Lachmanová RESEARCH PROJECT: International Migration and Migrants´ Illegal/Irregular Economic Activities: The Czech Republic in a Broader European Context International workshop, October 10, 2005, Budapest/Hungary THE DELPHI METHOD • Developed in the late 1940´s for military purposes • Method for structuring group communication • Based on questionnaires with controlled opinion feedback submitted to experts in several rounds • Anonymity • Often used for future forecasts in industry, environment, transportation, business, health care or education THE DELPHI METHOD • Conditions that support applying the Delphi: a) Complexity of the research problem b) Lacking adequate data c) Creation of common future scenario FORMS OF THE DELPHI METHOD • Conventional Delphi - Basic principles of the Delphi + statistical presentation of answers - Used for predicting future development based on consensus among experts • Policy Delphi - Instrument to analyse policy problems - Often used systematic rating of feasibility, desirability and importance of policy or strategical measures OWN EXPERIENCE: 1) THE 1993 DELPHI SURVEY ON EAST-WEST EUROPEAN MIGRATION • Research project for the Belgian Ministry of Science • Main aims – the probable future development of European East-West migration + testing applicability of Delphi on international migration issues • 70 experts from Eastern and Western Europe • Predictions largely for the period 1993 – 1998 MAIN RESULTS vis-à-vis REALITY • Results - Above all „push“ determinants of movements - Increasing role of short- term, circulatory migration - 57 % of experts predicted increase in volumes - Not massive inflows - Creation of a buffer zone • Reality - Very important but also growing importance of „pull“ factors - As predicted - Slow decrease in volumes - As predicted - As predicted MAIN RESULTS vis-à-vis REALITY • Results - Main target countries: Germany, Austria, France, Italy, Sweden, Finland - Main source countries: Yugoslavia, Albania, Romania - Low emigration from the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary or Baltic states • Reality - Almost as predicted, except Great Britain - As predicted, except Poland - As predicted MAIN RESULTS vis-à-vis REALITY • Results - Anxiety about potential increase in antagonism and hostility towards immigrants in Western Europe - Growing restrictions and harmonisation in migration policy in Western Europe - Application of restrictive measures in more developed countries of CEE • Reality - Increase in preferences of anti-immigrant political parties (in Austria, the Netherlands or France) - As predicted - As predicted but with a short time delay OWN EXPERIENCE: 2) THE 2003 DELPHI SURVEY ON EAST-WEST EUROPEAN MIGRATION • Small-scale research (15 experts from Czechia) • Conventional + Policy Delphi methods • Two rounds of questionnaires • Three time periods • Future scenarios with some detailed information • Migration policy objectives CONCLUSION • Only time will verify accuracy of the predictions • Delphi survey is just a piece of mosaic of methods as to how to predict the future migration development – anyways, found useful • Must to stick to „Delphi methodical rules“ . DELPHI RESEARCH AND INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION Dušan Drbohlav Zdeněk Čermák Dagmar Dzúrová Eva Janská Dita Čermáková Lenka Lachmanová RESEARCH PROJECT: International Migration and Migrants´. future development of European East-West migration + testing applicability of Delphi on international migration issues • 70 experts from Eastern and Western Europe • Predictions largely for. of feasibility, desirability and importance of policy or strategical measures OWN EXPERIENCE: 1) THE 1993 DELPHI SURVEY ON EAST-WEST EUROPEAN MIGRATION • Research project for the Belgian