Global Economic Prospects Realizing the Development Promise of the Doha Agenda phần 9 ppsx

[...]... last season’s 2.85 million tons (table A2.2) All of Table A2.2 Beverages global balances Annual growth rates (percent) 197 0 198 0 199 0 199 9 2000 2001 197 0–80 198 0 90 199 0–00 Coffee (Thousand bags) Production Consumption Exports 64,161 71,536 54,186 86,174 79, 100 60 ,99 6 100,181 96 ,300 76,163 116,581 106,343 90 , 394 110,104 108,186 86,823 122,7 59 110,750 88 ,97 4 2.1 1.0 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.4 1.2 0.2 1.7 Cocoa (Thousand... 262 Jan 199 9 Jan 2000 Jan 2001 onal Sugar Organization Jan 2002 Jan 2003 G L O B A L C O M M O D I T Y P R I C E P R O S P E C T S Table A2.6 Foods global balances (million tons) Annual growth rates (percent) 197 0 198 0 199 0 2000 2001 2002 197 0–80 198 0 90 199 0–00 Grains Production Consumption Exports Stocks 1,0 79 1,114 1 19 193 1,430 1,451 212 3 09 1,7 69 1,717 206 490 1,8 39 1,862 233 536 1,872 1 ,90 2 237... in 2002 (figure A2.5) They are exilogram Table A2.5 Global grain stocks-to-use percentages (excluding China) Maize 199 7 98 199 8 99 199 9–00 2000–01 2001–02 2002–03 2003–04 90 s Low Rice Wheat Total grains 10.1 11.5 11.4 11.6 10.4 6.3 8 .9 6.1 9. 3 10.2 11.8 13.6 13.1 10.0 10.2 8.6 16.5 18.0 17.1 18.6 20.4 15.8 16 .9 13 .9 13.0 14.0 13.6 14.4 14 .9 12.0 12.5 9. 8 Note: Data for 2003–04 is the USDA’s May 2003... Jan 2003 199 0 199 5 2000 2001 2002 Argentina Brazil United States World 11.5 12.4 27.8 30.0 35.0 15.8 24.2 39. 0 43.5 51.0 52.4 59. 2 75.1 78.7 74.3 104.1 124 .9 175.1 184.3 194 .0 Note: Argentina, Brazil, and the U.S account for about 83 percent of global production Source: USDA 261 G L O B A L E C O N O M I C P R O S P E C T S Table A2.4 Palm oil production (million tons) Year 198 0 198 5 199 0 199 5 2000 2001... well below the historical highs of the 197 0s and more recent highs of the mid- 199 0s By 2015, real arabica and robusta prices are projected to increase about 50 and 70 percent, respectively, over their 2002 levels Prices would still be only about half of their 199 0s peaks 2 59 G L O B A L E C O N O M I C P R O S P E C T S Table A2.1 Coffee production in selected countries (million bags) 199 8 Brazil Colombia... appendix tables A2.14–16 The forecasts do not reflect the effects of a multilateral trade agreement because of the uncertainty of such an agreement.) 19 Figure A2.1 Commodity price trends 19 E C O N O M I C ᮡ G L O B A L G L O B A L Figure A2.3 Beverage prices US cents per kilogram 600 ᮡ Arabica coffee 500 400 300 Tea ᮡ 200 ᮡ 100 Cocoa ᮡ Robusta coffee 0 Jan 199 7 Jan 199 8 Jan 199 9 Jan 2000 Jan 2001 Jan... 91 .1 27.6 19. 5 1 09. 4 106.8 34.1 19. 3 130.4 130.3 37.7 37.3 134.7 134 .9 40.7 34.0 143.3 136.6 46.6 32.2 2.80 3.30 3.26 3 .96 1. 59 1.40 0.83 –0.77 3.26 3.00 3.12 4.52 Fats and oils Production Consumption Exports Stocks 39. 8 39. 8 8.8 5.2 58.1 56.8 17.8 9. 3 80.8 80 .9 26 .9 12.2 117.2 116.8 38.3 14.8 120.1 120 .9 41.0 13.6 121.8 123.8 42.2 12.1 3.68 3.55 7.05 7. 09 3.54 3. 69 4. 19 2.44 3.70 3.64 3. 39 0. 69 Notes:... This is below the average of the diversified exporters during the 199 0s, where GDP growth achieved annual growth of 4.2 percent The lackluster investment climate in these countries requires further attention in the reform process Long-term prospects Reducing unemployment through higher GDP growth remains the key challenge for the re- E C O N O M I C P R O S P E C T S gion, particularly given the very high... rubber, whose prices increased considerably because of high crude oil prices (crude oil is a major cost component of synthetic rubber) Natural rubber prices are expected to remain above US$0 .90 /kg for the next two to three years Over the longer term, real prices are projected to increase slightly over the 2002 levels 100 90 80 70 60 Jan 199 7 Jan 199 8 Jan 199 9 Jan 2000 Jan 2001 Jan 2002 Jan 2003 Source: World... economies, particularly Russia, the projected softening of oil prices—to an average nominal price of about $ 19 per barrel for the 2005–10 period, in the underlying forecast—implies a ratcheting down of the subregion’s growth from recent high rates Risks There are three main risks to the forecast: • Global trade and growth prospects: More sluggish than anticipated world growth prospects, and/or a delayed . for the time being. Most of the economic impacts of the outbreak were the re- sult of public perceptions and fears about the disease, and from precautions taken against it, rather than from the. 15 Jan. 199 8 July 199 8 Jan. 199 9 July 199 9 Jan. 2000 July 2000 Jan. 2001 July 2001 Jan. 2002 July 2002 Jan. 2003 Bangladesh India Pakistan ᮡ ᮡ ᮡ budget deficit down slightly to 5.1 percent of GDP just over 50 percent of total merchandise exports, respectively). Given the importance of the agricultural sector to the region, the threat of REGIONAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS 2 39 severe weather conditions