DK2949_half 2/10/05 7:49 AM Page 1 Drought and Water Crises Science, Technology, and Management Issues Copyright 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group DK2949_title 2/10/05 7:48 AM Page 1 Drought and Water Crises Science, Technology, and Management Issues Edited by Donald A. Wilhite Boca Raton London New York Singapore A CRC title, part of the Taylor & Francis imprint, a member of the Taylor & Francis Group, the academic division of T&F Informa plc. Copyright 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group Published in 2005 by CRC Press Taylor & Francis Group 6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300 Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742 © 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group CRC Press is an imprint of Taylor & Francis Group No claim to original U.S. Government works Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper 10987654321 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-8247-2771-1 (Hardcover) International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-8247-2771-0 (Hardcover) Library of Congress Card Number 2004061861 This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources. Reprinted material is quoted with permission, and sources are indicated. A wide variety of references are listed. Reasonable efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author and the publisher cannot assume responsibility for the validity of all materials or for the consequences of their use. 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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Drought and water crisis : science, technology, and management issues / Donald A. Wilhite. p. cm. — (Books in soils, plants, and the environment ; v. 86) 1. Droughts. 2. Water-supply—Risk assessment. I. Wilhite, Donald A. II Series. ISBN 0-847-2771-1 (alk. paper) QC929.24.D75 2005 363.34'9297—dc22 2004061861 Visit the Taylor & Francis Web site at http://www.taylorandfrancis.com and the CRC Press Web site at http://www.crcpress.com Taylor & Francis Group is the Academic Division of T&F Informa plc. DK2949 disclaimer Page 1 Friday, February 11, 2005 11:36 AM Copyright 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group To Myra, Addison, Shannon, Suzanne, Benjamin, and my grandson, Gabriel DK2949_book.fm Page v Friday, February 11, 2005 11:25 AM Copyright 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group vii Contents PART I Overview Chapter 1 Drought as Hazard: Understanding the Natural and Social Context 3 Donald A. Wilhite and Margie Buchanan-Smith PART II Drought and Water Management: The Role of Science and Technology Chapter 2 The Challenge of Climate Prediction in Mitigating Drought Impacts 33 Neville Nicholls, Michael J. Coughlan, and Karl Monnik Chapter 3 Drought Monitoring: New Tools for the 21st Century 53 Michael J. Hayes, Mark Svoboda, Douglas Le Comte, Kelly T. Redmond, and Phil Pasteris DK2949_book.fm Page vii Friday, February 11, 2005 11:25 AM Copyright 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group viii Drought and Water Crises Chapter 4 Drought Indicators and Triggers 71 Anne C. Steinemann, Michael J. Hayes, and Luiz F. N. Cavalcanti Chapter 5 Drought Preparedness Planning: Building Institutional Capacity 93 Donald A. Wilhite, Michael J. Hayes, and Cody L. Knutson Chapter 6 National Drought Policy: Lessons Learned from Australia, South Africa, and the United States 137 Donald A. Wilhite, Linda Botterill, and Karl Monnik Chapter 7 Managing Demand: Water Conservation as a Drought Mitigation Tool 173 Amy Vickers Chapter 8 The Role of Water Harvesting and Supplemental Irrigation in Coping with Water Scarcity and Drought in the Dry Areas 191 Theib Y. Oweis Chapter 9 Drought, Climate Change, and Vulnerability: The Role of Science and Technology in a Multi-Scale, Multi-Stressor World 215 Colin Polsky and David W. Cash PART III Case Studies in Drought and Water Management: The Role of Science and Technology Chapter 10 The Hardest Working River: Drought and Critical Water Problems in the Colorado River Basin 249 Roger S. Pulwarty, Katherine L. Jacobs, and Randall M. Dole DK2949_book.fm Page viii Friday, February 11, 2005 11:25 AM Copyright 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group Contents ix Chapter 11 Drought Risk Management in Canada–U.S. Transboundary Watersheds: Now and in the Future 287 Grace Koshida, Marianne Alden, Stewart J. Cohen, Robert A. Halliday, Linda D. Mortsch, Virginia Wittrock, and Abdel R. Maarouf Chapter 12 Drought and Water Management: Can China Meet Future Demand? 319 Zhang Hai Lun, Ke Li Dan, and Zhang Shi Fa Chapter 13 A Role for Streamflow Forecasting in Managing Risk Associated with Drought and Other Water Crises 345 Susan Cuddy, Rebecca Letcher, Francis H. S. Chiew, Blaire E. Nancarrow, and Tony Jakeman Chapter 14 Droughts and Water Stress Situations in Spain 367 Manuel Menéndez Prieto PART IV Integration and Conclusions Chapter 15 Drought and Water Crises: Lessons Learned and the Road Ahead 389 Donald A. Wilhite and Roger S. Pulwarty DK2949_book.fm Page ix Friday, February 11, 2005 11:25 AM Copyright 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group xi Editor’s Preface When I began my professional career at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln in 1979, I intended to direct my research and outreach program at the emerging field of climate impact science. It was fortuitous that a large portion of the United States, including the Great Plains, Upper Midwest, and Pacific Northwest, had recently come out of an intense but somewhat short-lived drought during 1976-1977. This drought spawned a research-oriented work- shop held at the University of Nebraska in 1979 that focused on drought impacts and the development of agricultural drought strat- egies for that area and similar regions. I was given the opportunity to work with the project team to design the workshop content and develop pre-workshop materials. Although I had focused my grad- uate studies on climate variability and the climatology of drought, my intent was for drought to be only one of several climate-related subject areas I would address in my career. The workshop led to two follow-up drought projects directed at an evaluation of govern- mental drought response policies. Twenty-five years later, I am still researching and writing about drought. There must be something fascinating about this subject to capture my imagination for the past quarter century. As I became DK2949_book.fm Page xi Friday, February 11, 2005 11:25 AM Copyright 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group xii Drought and Water Crises more engaged in the subject, both as a climate scientist and a geographer, I became more and more intrigued by its complexity and the challenges of detecting, responding to, and preparing for this “natural” hazard. Why was drought such a poorly understood concept? What was the role of the science community in addressing this issue? Why were governments so poorly prepared for drought? Why were governmental policies for dealing with drought nonexist- ent? From both a scientific and a policy perspective, we have made considerable progress in addressing many of the issues associated with improving how society manages drought. Much remains to be done, however; especially with drought’s interconnections to issues of integrated water management, sustainable development, climate change, water scarcity, environmental degradation, transboundary water conflicts, population growth, and poverty, to name just a few. Drought and Water Crises: Science, Technology, and Management Issues is an attempt to explain the complexities of drought and the role of science, technology, and management in resolving many of the perplexing issues associated with drought management and the world ’ s expanding water crises. Tremendous advances have been made in the past decade in our ability to monitor and detect drought and communicate this information to decision makers at all levels. Why are decision makers not fully using this information for risk mitigation? Better planning and mitigation tools are also available today to help governments and other groups develop drought miti- gation plans. How can we make these methodologies more readily available and adaptable? In the agricultural and urban sectors, new water-conserving technologies are being applied that allow more efficient use of water. How can we promote more widespread adop- tion of these technologies and their use during non-drought periods? Progress is being made on improving the reliability of seasonal drought forecasts to better serve decision makers in the manage- ment of water and other natural resources. How can these seasonal forecasts be made more reliable and expressed in ways to better meet the needs of end users? These and other questions are addressed by the contributors to this volume. The information herein will better equip the reader with the knowledge necessary to take action to reduce societal vulnerability to drought. In the past, most regions possessed a buffer in their water supply so periods of drought were not necessarily associated with water shortages, although impacts were often quite severe. The crisis management approach to drought management, although ineffec- tive in reducing societal vulnerability, allowed societies to muddle DK2949_book.fm Page xii Friday, February 11, 2005 11:25 AM Copyright 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group Editor’s Preface xiii through to the next drought episode. That buffer no longer exists for most locations. Water shortages are widespread in both devel- oping and developed countries and in more humid as well as arid climates—even in years with relatively normal precipitation. Drought only serves to exacerbate these water shortages and con- flicts between users. Droughts of lesser magnitude are also resulting in greater impacts—a clear sign that more people and sectors are at greater risk today than in the past. When societies are faced with a long-term drought, such as has been occurring in the western United States over the past 6 years, governments are desperate to identify longer term solutions. Unfortunately, this interest often quickly wanes when precipitation returns to normal—a return to the “hydro-illogical” mentality. All drought-prone nations should adopt a more risk-based, pro- active policy for drought management. To make progress, we must first recognize that drought has both a natural and a social dimen- sion. Second, we must involve natural, biological, and social scien- tists in the formulation and implementation of drought prepared- ness plans and policies. This book collates considerable information from diverse disciplines with the goal of furthering drought pre- paredness planning and reducing societal vulnerability to drought. DK2949_book.fm Page xiii Friday, February 11, 2005 11:25 AM Copyright 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group [...]... Page 1 Friday, February 11 , 2005 11 :25 AM Part I Overview Copyright 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group DK2949_book.fm Page 3 Friday, February 11 , 2005 11 :25 AM 1 Drought as Hazard: Understanding the Natural and Social Context DONALD A WILHITE AND MARGIE BUCHANAN-SMITH CONTENTS I II Introduction 4 Drought as Hazard: Concepts, Definition, and Types 5 A Types of Drought 7 B Characterizing Drought. .. Drought and Its Severity 11 III Drought as Disaster: The Social/Political Context 12 IV The Challenge of Drought Early Warning 16 V Examples of the Interaction of Drought with the Wider Social/Political Context 19 A Southern Africa Food Crisis of 2002–2003 19 B Drought and War in South Sudan in 19 98 20 C Recent Drought Years in the United States, 19 96–2004 22 VI Drought- Vulnerable vs Drought- Resilient... Francis Group DK2949_book.fm Page 11 Friday, February 11 , 2005 11 :25 AM Drought as Hazard: Understanding the Natural and Social Context 11 extent expands and contracts A comprehensive drought early warning system is critical for tracking these changes in spatial coverage and severity, as explained below B Characterizing Drought and Its Severity In technical terms, droughts differ from one another in... groundwater levels, res- Copyright 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group DK2949_book.fm Page 17 Friday, February 11 , 2005 11 :25 AM Drought as Hazard: Understanding the Natural and Social Context 17 ervoir and lake levels, and soil moisture in order to assess drought and water supply conditions (see Chapter 3) These physical indicators and climate indices must then be combined with socioeconomic indicators in order... phenomenon of drought and the term disaster to describe its negative human and environmental impacts Copyright 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group DK2949_book.fm Page 5 Friday, February 11 , 2005 11 :25 AM Drought as Hazard: Understanding the Natural and Social Context II 5 DROUGHT AS HAZARD: CONCEPTS, DEFINITION, AND TYPES Drought differs from other natural hazards in several ways First, drought is a slow-onset... of and governmental response to drought For a sigCopyright 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group DK2949_book.fm Page 7 Friday, February 11 , 2005 11 :25 AM Drought as Hazard: Understanding the Natural and Social Context 7 nificant portion of the northeast region, he indicated that drought occurred 81 10 0% of the time Much of this region is arid, and drought is an inevitable feature of its climate However, drought. .. in both water- short and water- surplus regions where conflicts within and between countries are growing Reducing the impacts of future drought events is paramount as part of a sustainable development strategy, a theme developed later in this chapter and throughout this volume Drought must be considered a relative, rather than absolute, condition It occurs in both high- and low-rainfall areas and in virtually... Friday, February 11 , 2005 11 :25 AM Drought as Hazard: Understanding the Natural and Social Context 9 terms of the departure of surface and subsurface water supplies from some average condition at various points in time Like agricultural drought, no direct relationship exists between precipitation amounts and the status of surface and subsurface water supplies in lakes, reservoirs, aquifers, and streams... DK2949_book.fm Page xxi Friday, February 11 , 2005 11 :25 AM Contributors xxi serves as one of the principal authors of both the U.S Drought Monitor and the North American Drought Monitor Amy Vickers is an engineer, water conservation consultant, public policy advisor, and author of the Handbook of Water Use and Conservation: Homes, Landscapes, Businesses, Industries, Farms (WaterPlow Press) She is president... eruption Landslide Drought Virus and pests Copyright 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group 13 Figure 2 “Pressures” that result in disasters: the progression of vulnerability (Source: At Risk: Natural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability, and Disasters, P Blaikie, T Cannon, I Davis, and B Wisner, London: Routledge, 19 94, Figure 2 .1, p 23.) DK2949_book.fm Page 13 Friday, February 11 , 2005 11 :25 AM ROOT CAUSES 2 Drought . paper 10 9876543 21 International Standard Book Number -1 0 : 0-8 24 7-2 77 1- 1 (Hardcover) International Standard Book Number -1 3 : 97 8-0 -8 24 7-2 77 1- 0 (Hardcover) Library of Congress Card Number 20040 618 61 This. DK2949_half 2 /10 /05 7:49 AM Page 1 Drought and Water Crises Science, Technology, and Management Issues Copyright 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group DK2949_title 2 /10 /05 7:48 AM Page 1 Drought and Water. February 11 , 2005 11 :25 AM Copyright 2005 by Taylor & Francis Group viii Drought and Water Crises Chapter 4 Drought Indicators and Triggers 71 Anne C. Steinemann, Michael J. Hayes, and