The Man-MadeEnvironment:Socioeconomics
14.1ORIGIN
In 1973, the Council on Environmental Quality issued guidelines for a NEPA processthat considered the importance of socioeconomics in an EIS The following key dis-cussion in the CEQ guidelines brought socioeconomics into the picture:
“Secondary or indirect, as well as primary or direct, consequences for the environ-ment should be included in the analysis Many major Federal actions, in particular thosethat involve the construction or licensing of infrastructure investments, e.g., highways,airports, sewer systems, water resource projects, etc., stimulate or induce secondaryeffects in the form of associated investments and changed patterns of social and eco-nomic activities Such secondary effects, through their impacts on existing communityfacilities and activities, through inducing new facilities and activities, or throughchanges in natural conditions, may often be even more substantial than the primaryeffects of the original action itself For example, the effects of the proposed action onpopulation and growth may be among the more significant secondary effects Such pop-ulation and growth impacts should be estimated if expected to be significant and anassessment made of the effect of any possible change in population patterns or growthupon the resource base, including land use, water, and public services, of the area inquestion.”
The 1978 CEQ regulations defined the human environment as follows:
“Human Environment” shall be interpreted comprehensively to include the naturaland physical environment and the relationship of people with that environment Thismeans that economic or social effects are not intended by themselves to require prepa-ration of an environmental impact statement When an environmental impact statementis prepared and economic or social and natural or physical environmental effects areinterrelated, then the environmental impact statement will discuss all of these effects onthe human environment.”
14.2ITEMS INCLUDED IN SOCIOECONOMICS
Socioeconomics covers a wide range of topics Basically, they include those relatingto human relationships and interactions, with the emphasis being on economiceffects
Trang 2The socioeconomic environment in which project planning takes place is largelyaffected by induced growth and changes in existing land-use conditions Growthwithin an area generates changes in population which, in turn, induce changes in theeconomy and how land is used Induced growth also alters the demand for commu-nity services and the use of utilities, transportation facilities, and energy which, inturn, affect changes in the infrastructure of the community.
NEPA studies describe both the social and economic environment as it existsprior to the proposed project, as well as the impacts of the project on that social andeconomic environment Where mitigating measures are feasible, they are included.Examination of the issues and identification of the effects on the social and economicsystems are an integral part of the analysis.
Because socioeconomics is a very broad category, it has been divided in this dis-cussion into the following subsections: • Demography • Economic Base • Local government finances • Land use • Housing • Community services • Recreation • Aesthetics Each of these elements will be discussed on the following pages 14.2.1DEMOGRAPHY
The social makeup of the proposed alternative sites can be described through areview of demographic data Topics to be addressed include population estimates andprojections, the labor force and its employment level, rate, and nature of populationchanges, median age, median household income, age structure, and the proportion ofhouseholds below the poverty level Demographic data may be obtained from theU.S Bureau of the Census, the state, and the local county planning boards
The population estimation and forecast approach provides:
• Estimates of the existing population of the study area and the relevant areaimpacted by the proposed action
• Projections of population changes induced by the proposed action and otheralternatives under consideration
Trang 3• Component and cohort survival analysis • Trend analysis
• Saturation analysis • Ratio analysis • Segment analysis
They all are rather complex and will not be discussed further
In addition to general population projection techniques, a recurrent need formany alternatives is the distribution or disaggregation of larger area projections intosmall units that can be aggregated to the study area level Some of the disaggregationtechniques used in NEPA projects include:
• Aerial photo and segment analysis
• Indirect indicators (e.g., gas and electric meter connections)
When aerial photos can be obtained for the total areas to be disaggregated, seg-ment analysis is utilized to tally and proportion recent developseg-ment in segseg-ments ofthe study area Recent air photos also are extremely useful in the detailed land-useprojection process and the identification of areas where development may beinduced.
For indirect indicators, one may rely on gas and electric meter connections andother utility connections, building permits, and reviews of residential developmentwhen assessing the population growth that has occurred since the most recent popu-lation estimate These techniques should be used cautiously because site plan reviewand the issuance of building permits are not necessarily synonymous with con-structed units and population growth
14.2.2LOCALECONOMICBASE
An economic profile of the project area and its surrounding region includes a descrip-tion of the labor force, employment and unemployment characteristics, economicactivity, and trends in each major economic sector It also may include descriptionsof local and regional income characteristics such as total personal income, per capitaincome, median or average household income, median household effective buyingincome, distribution of household income by income category, and selected salaryand wage data by industry The area income data are compared to regional or stateincome data to assess the relative position of the community residents Primary datasources for the above information are:
• Local and state employment commissions • Chambers of Commerce
• Local council of governments • Bureau of the Census
Trang 4Comparative data can be used to assess the trends for each economic category.An economic base analysis utilizing location quotients determines the extent of eco-nomic diversification, that is, the ratio of basic to nonbasic industries.
The role of basic employment in generating nonbasic employment and thedependence of unemployed or employed persons generates a family of ratios calledemployment multiplier effects.
Data on employment levels and employment projections are considered as partof the development of an EIS Employment types include construction-phaseemployment, plant operations employment, and indirect and induced employment inother economic sectors These three components of employment are used in the EISas inputs to measure traffic generation from the facility, air emissions, noise levels,housing needs, area-wide economic effects, and community stability.
Direct and indirect employment attributed to the project can be calculated usinglocation quotients developed in the economic base analysis This can be calculatedfor the short-term peak construction phase as well as for the long-term operation andmaintenance of a proposed facility Total direct and indirect employment data thencan be used to project total direct and indirect population impacts The inducedemployment resulting from the proposed action may be distributed across majorindustry categories using existing employment ratios and comparisons of past indus-try trends.
Direct income resulting from the proposed facility can be calculated using wageand salary data This is calculated for the short-term construction phase as well as forthe long-term operation and maintenance of the project By using income multipliersfrom regional and state input–output models, the indirect and induced gross incomecan be estimated as well as the gross disposable income that will be spent in the areaeconomy Disposable income projections are used to develop estimates of increasedsales tax revenues Income data also are useful in assessing impacts on existing laborforce conditions and population migration trends.
A key element in this study is the effect of the proposed project on the retail salespotential What is the present situation? Will the project result in an additional mar-ket for the retail sales industry? If so, to what extent? Will additional revenue be gen-erated by sales taxes? How will this affect the overall economy of the area? Thesequestions, not infrequently, are overriding ones in the determination of the impacts ofa proposed project
14.2.3LOCALGOVERNMENTFINANCES
The analysis of local government finances relies on information about the municipalbudget, sources of revenue, categories of expenditures, and tax structure to assess theimpacts of proposed actions on community costs The overall population increaseand induced economic growth directly affect the amount and level of community ser-vices provided by the municipality to the area
Analysis focuses on four main categories of community costs: • community-borne primary costs of a proposed public facility
Trang 5• individual user costs and ability to pay for the service generated by a pub-lic facility when that is the subject of an EIS
• the fiscal capacity of the local government entity funding a proposed pub-lic facility
Because the construction of new facilities may promote residential and nonresiden-tial development, consideration must be given in the EIS to the problems and costsof supplying sufficient community and infrastructure services to meet the induceddemand Four methods of estimating service expansion costs that are variants of fis-cal impact analysis or fisfis-cal capacity analysis may be used:
Per Capita Multiplier Method This is the straightforward means of assigning
local costs to a proposed population change It relies on detailed demo-graphic information (by housing type) and the average cost per person ofmunicipal and school district operating expenses to project an annual costassignable to a particular population change
Service Standard Method This method relies on national or regional standards
for different service categories of municipal and school district operatingand capital expenditures Future costs that will be required as a result ofgrowth are calculated by service category
Proportional Valuation Method This average costing approach differentiates
between residential and nonresidential impacts on local costs and revenues.This method assigns costs attributable to the share of the real property taxbase It has great value for EIS projects in which a new facility is proposedfor large scale areas zoned for industrial and commercial development
Case Study Method This approach relies upon site-specific investigations to
determine categories of excess or deficient public service capacity and thecommunity’s ability to pay for expanded services Population-imposedneeds are projected in terms of future services demand This understandingof where excess or deficient capacity currently exists permits recommenda-tion of service expansion needs and anticipated costs The case studyapproach allows the individualized analysis of the specific service needsand financing capabilities of a particular study area
Fiscal Capacity Analysis This analysis includes evaluation of the budget, both
general fund and departmental budgets in the case of a public facility.Sources of revenues and the tax structure are evaluated Categories ofexpenditures and a statement of bonded indebtedness are provided Thegovernment entity’s ability to float bonds is evaluated within the context ofthe overall capital improvements plan for the community Other fundingsources such as state and federal grants are considered before the finalassessment is made on the government’s ability to pay for the proposedfacility
Trang 614.2.4LANDUSE
Land-use determinations and forecasts are an essential part of EIS work Proposed newfacilities may have significant impacts on land use Often, these facilities are major con-sumers of land and may serve to encourage growth of a similar nature Land-use com-patibility, both present and future, is another concern with activities of this type
The close relationship between land-use development and population growthmandates that the techniques used for estimating and forecasting be consistent andbased on common and realistic assumptions Typically, the development and/orreview of baseline and alternative population projections serve as the basis for land-use forecasting As is the case with population projections, the methodology land-used forland-use forecasting varies significantly from project to project, depending uponlocal characteristics, available information, and the importance of land-use impactsas an EIS issue.
The land-use determination and forecasting approach is designed to producethree major products which correspond with the three major products of the popula-tion estimapopula-tion and projecpopula-tion techniques These are:
• Existing land-use determination of the study area and the relevant areaimpacted by the proposed actions
• Baseline (no action) forecasts of land use in the study and impact areas • Determinations of the land-use changes induced by the proposed action and
other alternatives under consideration
To achieve these desired results, one selects the most appropriate land-use deter-mination and forecasting techniques for the particular study area Methodologies thathave been used to evaluate land-use changes include:
Carrying Capacity Analysis The induced growth caused by new industries
necessitates that the capacity of land-related elements, principal road sys-tems, recreational facilities and open space, water supply, and other utilitysystems be evaluated The capacity of each of these is measured against theprojected use
Land Absorption (Space Loss) Analysis The increase in population that results
from the development of new industries places a demand on open space InEIS work, one identifies probable areas to be converted, measures the extentof the loss, and assesses the consequences of this loss to the community andregion Special emphasis is placed on the loss of recreational space, prime andunique farmlands, environmentally sensitive areas, and aesthetic resources
Land-Use Cover Analysis The construction of a new industrial project can
Trang 7Site Location Analysis The spatial or geographic consequences of the project
on land use are assessed The location of the project can have serious con-sequences on energy consumption, road utilization, accessibility to servicesand other parts of the region, and the compatibility of different land uses
Land Management Analysis An important consideration in the assessment of
land-use changes is the capability of local government agencies to operate aland management system with sufficient regulatory controls and planningtools Evaluations are typically made from zoning ordinances, subdivisionordinances, environmental control ordinances, and comprehensive plans Inreviewing these growth management tools, it is possible to identify areaswhich are likely to be overlooked or inadequately monitored by local regu-latory institutions Beyond control capabilities, the past performances ofthese institutions must be reviewed as indicators of possible future perfor-mances Land-use controls can have their utility greatly reduced if not prop-erly implemented by local officials
Plan Compliance Analysis All alternatives in an EIS are assessed to determine
their conformity with municipal, county, regional, and state plans relevantto the project These plans generally concern land use, open space and recre-ation, area-wide water quality management, water supply, and transporta-tion systems
Per Capita Land Consumption Analysis Based on population projections of
the study area, estimates can be made of the per capita consumption of landrequired for residential, commercial, industrial, open space, transportation,and utility uses Residential acreage required to accommodate the projectedpopulations is determined based on dwelling unit type and density factorsand allocated to the appropriate land areas The level of nonresidentialdevelopment is then determined as a function of population increase on aper capita basis using existing local conditions as a basis for deriving the percapita standards
In many cases, detailed existing and future land-use plans are readily availableand require only an evaluation of the assumptions and methodologies used Of par-ticular concern in these instances is the review of the assumptions used in both theland-use and population forecasts Before they can be used for baseline purposes, itis necessary to ascertain whether the projections are consistent and reflect commongrowth factors, trends, development patterns, and constraints.
Trang 8necessary to meet the requirements mandated by NEPA and other federal regulationsare always included These specific impact evaluations include:
• The primary land-use impacts of facility construction
• Modified rates of development which diverge significantly from thatplanned by governing bodies
• Adverse unavoidable impacts in the form of induced undesirable land-usepatterns • The relationship between short-term uses of the land versus long-term pro-ductivity • Irreversible and irretrievable commitments of land through primary or sec-ondary development
• The development of prime and unique farmlands
In the NEPA study, the existing land use of the areas in the vicinity of the projectsites should be described with emphasis on the sites themselves Commercial andretail establishments, parking lots, housing, etc., in the general area are described.Land-use plans for the study area and zoning designation are documented Land-useand zoning information generally may be obtained from local agencies.
Insofar as preservation of farmland is concerned, several categories of agricul-tural land are recognized by the U.S Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) andthe U.S Department of Agriculture (USDA) as worthy of protection from conversionto nonfarm land uses This includes prime and unique farmlands of national,statewide, or local significance in agricultural production; farmlands within or con-tiguous to environmentally sensitive areas; farmlands that may be used for land treat-ment or organic wastes; and farmlands with significant capital investtreat-ments that helpcontrol soil erosion and nonpoint source water pollution These are pinpointed in theNEPA study The evaluation of prime farmlands was discussed in an earlier chapterin this book
14.2.5COMMUNITYSERVICES
The study of community services begins with an examination of the infrastructure.The infrastructure at the proposed site to serve the project and the staff members whowill live nearby is described in terms of water supply systems, stormwater drainage,wastewater systems, solid waste disposal, and energy utilities The present water sup-ply in the vicinity of the development is described with regard to source of supsup-ply,storage capacity, demand, quality of supplies, and plans for expansion This infor-mation may be obtained from the county utilities agency and the planning agencies Stormwater management is described in terms of existing facilities and futurerequirements Data on facilities, capacities, and expansion plans are obtained fromthe planning agencies and the appropriate county and city agencies.
Trang 9collection and treatment capacity, plans for expansion, service agreements, and thequality of discharged wastewater The necessary data may be collected from the samegroups listed in the preceding two paragraphs.
The existing solid waste disposal systems operated by local jurisdictions aredescribed in terms of the identification of sanitary landfills or incinerators vs pro-jected demand, service areas, average pounds per day per person, and plans forexpansion The appropriate state agency and the EPA should be contacted to deter-mine whether or not any hazardous waste disposal sites are located in the study area.Studies on residential energy use and supply are evaluated through contact withthe local utilities departments and the various planning agencies.
Community services at each proposed site to be examined in the NEPA studyinclude schools, police, fire, recreation, health care, and shopping facilities.Information about schools and universities are obtained from the local school sys-tems and the nearby universities Police, fire, and rescue services are documented.Manpower resources, locations of stations, and standards of service are examined.Data sources include the county fire marshals, the county sheriff’s departments, andthe police and fire departments in the areas studied.
Shopping facilities are described according to the location of major commercialcenters, the sizes of shopping areas, and the distances from the proposed develop-ments Shopping information is collected from the planning boards
14.2.6RECREATION
The construction of industrial or governmental facilities may cause increases in pop-ulation and changes in land use that may have adverse effects on recreationalresources Conversely, opportunities for recreation may be created The nature andimportance of the recreational impact varies greatly with different types of projects.The approach to the evaluation of primary and secondary impacts on recreationalresources generally includes the following steps:
• A literature review to identify the locations, types, and characteristics ofparklands in and adjacent to the project area
• A windshield survey to document current conditions
• A mapping program to show the proximity of existing and proposed park-lands
• An areal estimate of parklands lost or directly affected by the constructionof the proposed project
Trang 1014.2.7AESTHETICS
The potential for off-site aesthetic impacts varies greatly among project types andregional characteristics Typically, those landscapes with extensive current industrialuse are judged less scenic than rural farmscapes or forests, and impacts from newfacilities are likely to be less noticeable or adverse
The aesthetic value of the landscape is being viewed increasingly as a bona fideresource and, therefore, is addressed in many instances as part of an EIS This is espe-cially true in areas where recreation is a major industry and tourism brings in largerevenues Expansive facilities such as surface coal mines have a great potential foraesthetic impacts on scenic landscapes; in some cases they can be avoided (as withvisual buffer strips), while in other cases the adverse impacts are unavoidable.
To assess the primary and secondary impacts of a proposed facility on the aes-thetics of the project area, the character of the existing landscape must be defined.This involves both a literature review of existing information describing the studyarea and a windshield survey Literature is gathered from federal, state, local, and uni-versity libraries; special government programs; state and local agencies; chambers ofcommerce; tourist bureaus; and interest groups
14.2.8HOUSING
Housing in the vicinity of each alternative site is discussed in an EIS with respect toinventory, growth, low and moderate income needs, and needs for persons who workat the project The analysis includes a housing count, housing values, and vacancyrates Low and moderate income needs may be assessed through a review of applic-able local housing assistance plans The hotel and motel situation for visitors alsoshould be assessed Housing data should be available from the U.S Bureau of theCensus and the local planning agencies
14.2.9OTHERS
The list of factors that may be included in the socioeconomic section of an EIS islengthy and is a direct function of both the nature of the projects and of the neigh-borhood Health and social services, availability of utilities, religious buildings, solidand hazardous materials management facilities, availability of medical facilities—any or all of these may prove to be critical elements
14.3IMPACTS
New construction can impact community facilities and the utility and communicationnetworks of a study area in several ways:
• Construction activities may temporarily disrupt the provision of serviceand/or the operation of facilities
Trang 11• Operation may generate a demand for new services or facilities (i.e., chem-ical fire-fighting capabilities)
• Construction and operation may permanently displace certain facilities orutilities
• Location and operation of the project may reduce access to other facilitiesand services
To evaluate these potential impacts, a number of techniques are used to quantifyexisting levels of service and to document impacts which might result from the con-struction of the proposed project The starting point is an inventory of the facilitiesand services in the proposed study area, including such items as police and fire pro-tection, educational institutions, health facilities, government administrative facili-ties, libraries, public utilifacili-ties, and solid waste disposal and water supply facilities.These inventories are completed through the review of community facility plans andcapital improvements budgets, interviews with local officials and facility operators,field surveys, and contact with state, regional and local agencies.
The inventory is then compared to accepted national or local standards for lev-els of service to determine existing capacity Future expansion plans are then evalu-ated in comparison to those standards to determine future capacity levels After theland-use and population projections are completed for the no action and action alter-native proposals, the impacts on community facilities and services are documentedin comparison to these future capacity levels.
Impacts on public services such as the educational system, health care, police andfire protection, utilities, and solid waste management are difficult to measure quanti-tatively When a project induces population or demographic developments in an area,there will be an increased demand for public services The degree to which these ser-vices are affected is closely tied to the existing capacity of the service and requires adetailed demographic analysis of the added population that will affect each service, forexample, number and age of children, number of additional homes, and so on.
Educational systems may be subject to a variety of impacts The EIS generallyconsiders only public elementary and secondary schools Private school effects aredifficult to estimate Local public two and four year colleges are considered, but pri-vate universities are not.
Data and predicted impacts of the new development are best obtained from thelocal school district and the state office of education Baseline conditions shouldinclude not only the existing situation, but also the projected growth of the educa-tional system without the extra load to be imposed by project-related populationincreases.
Trang 12Similar situations prevail for police and fire protection, utilities, and solid wastemanagement The EIS examines the degree of availability of those services before theproject occurs and then estimates the changed requirements based on the increasedpopulation owing to the project as well as the location of that population The abilityof the present services to handle the additional load is determined as well as the extentto which new services will have to be provided and their costs The term utilities heretakes in natural gas, electricity, drinking water, sanitary, and storm sewers and simi-lar activities
14.4MITIGATION MEASURES
In contrast to the natural sciences, mitigation measures for socioeconomic effectsvary greatly and sometimes cannot be accomplished An examination of some of thepossible approaches to mitigation, as presented below, is illustrative of that
Demography may change as a result of a project but cannot and should not bemitigated The economic base of an area may change, more often than not, for the bet-ter Satellite commercial establishments may arise to take advantage of a broadenedcustomer base No mitigating measures are foreseen.
Local government finances may be impacted positively or negatively by a newproject, its taxes, and its requirements for services When the impact is negative, thenthe mitigating measures may consist of additional spending by the local governmentfor the required additional services This, in turn, may lead to increased taxes or feesof one type or another Conversely, a larger tax base owing to the project may lead toa lowering of taxes and/or fees
14.4.1LANDUSE
Land use generally follows established community master plans, although changesmay be made in the master plan because of the size and scope of the project No mit-igating measures are seen here
14.4.2COMMUNITYSERVICES
Mitigating measures consist of the expansion of the appropriate community servicesto fill the added requirements imposed by the project and the new population associ-ated with it
Recreation impacts can be mitigated by the provision of additional recreationalfacilities, either by the community or by the project developer.