21st Century Manufacturing Part 15 pot

414 Future Aspects of Manufacturing Chap. 10 , 0.1.1 Maintaining a System Perspective between QA and Time-to-Market As a note concerning "the big picture," there will always be an inherent trade-off between total quality assurance and time-to-market (see Cole, 1991,1999).This isnot a new phenomenon. In Chapter 1, it was mentioned that Eli Whitney was first criti- cized by his customers for slow delivery. Later he was congratulated for the quality and repairability of his guns. But along the way there must have been some tense negotiations! In today's era of shrinking product cycles in many high-tech markets, the rewards of being first to market are very high in terms of market share and profit. Furthermore, the latter provides the source for funds for the next generation of technology. This often occurs when a producer such as Intel or Microsoft can make orders of magnitude of improvement over earlier products and versions of the same product. If these performance improvements are highly valued by cus- tomers-such as high-speed computing for certain customers-some quality prob- lems will be overlooked. Increasingly, this implicit bargain is institutionalized in beta testing. The most dramatic example is Microsoft 2000, which had 500,000 prerelease customers participating in its beta testing. This broader view of customer awareness shows that if the right bargain is struck between supplier and consumer, then the best possible product can be delivered at the right time. 10.8 LAYER III: AESTHETICS IN DESIGN Engineers and technologists tend -to be a little disparaging toward discussions that involve art and aesthetics. But a question worth pondering is: if miniaturized elec- tronics are destined to be a part of our everyday life,much like clothing and housing, why can't technology be softened to suit the human desire for comfort, elegance, and fine design? One major way to maintain a competitive advantage over the next few years will be to acknowledge the importance of artistry and design aesthetics in con- sumer products. This may seem a rash prediction; however, it is supported by an examination of the following three companies that have pulled ahead of their respective competition by devoting more attention to the artistic aspects of common products: •Ford has reintroduced some of the excitement seen in its older designs to the new car business. Perhaps the Mustang is a good example. The seminal Amer- ican sports car has returned to the sculpted look of the 1900s rather than the functional, boxy look of the early 19808.Ford also seems to have hit the exact needs of today's consumer markets with its Explorer . •Motorola and Nokia have continued to miniaturize and stylize the cellular phone. The Nokia exchangeable face plate in different jazzy colors is aimed at the teenage market of "on-the-move-but-let's-keep-in-touch." For maturer 10.9 Layer IV: Bridging Cultures to Create Leading Edge Products 415 fashion victims, the Motorola StarTAC can conveniently be worn under a Georgia Armani suit and not ruin the line. Even with jeans, Motorola products aim to be worn with style and not just provide communication ability. The StarTAC's size and elegance appeal to the fashion sensibilities of Wall Street investors and Silicon Valley computer programmers alike. •Nike and, more recently, Hilfiger, continue to entice a huge number of people to buy $10()+ running shoes because their designs have an "edge" that stands out. "Edge" does not get measured by one obvious factor. It is a combination of shape, material, color, and feel, backed up by effective advertising and sports-hero endorsement. Nevertheless it is a property that teenagers sense immediately. At the time of this writing, it seems that Nike and Hilfiger have tapped into it and Levi's has lost it. But again, things change quickly. These are intuitive issues that are best discussed informally in the classroom. For further reading, a charming monograph by Jim Adams called Conceptual Blockbusting (1974) is a good place to start. In addition, most large cities have a museum of modern art where inspirations for the shape of future products can often be found. 10.9 LAVER IV: BRIDGING CULTURES TO CREATE LEADING EDGE PRODUCTS Future products will be cross-disciplinary and involve synergy between mechanical, electrical, biotechnical, and other disciplines. The following discussion will show that this confluence of different technologies creates a spiral of increasing capability where all technologies drive each other to higher achievements. This trend will cer- tainly continue to be a central aspect of 21st century manufacturing. The reader is first invited to study Taniguchi's Table 10.1 grouped under the headings of (m) mechanical, (e) electrical, and (0) optical. • Normal manufacturing delivers the precision needed for (m) automobile man- ufacturing, (e) switches, and (0) camera bodies. • Precision manufacturing delivers the precision needed for (m) bearings and gears, (e) electrical relays, and (0) optical connectors. • Ultraprecision manufacturing delivers the precision needs for (m) u1trapreci- sian x-y tables, (e) VLSl manufacturing support, and (0) lenses, diffraction gratings, and video discs. The data emphasize that the precision at any level has been more easily achieved as the last few decades have gone by. The greatest benefit has probably come from CNC control, where the axes of factory-floor machines have been driven by servo-mechanisms consisting of appropriate transducers, servomotors, and amplifiers with increasing sophistication of control (Bollinger and Duffie, 1988). This closed loop control of the machinery motions has probably bad the biggest impact on the improvements in precision and accuracy over the last SO 416 Future Aspects of Manufacturing Chap. 10 TABLE 10.1 Products Manufactured with Different levels of Precision tccurtesv of Taniguchi, 1994). Examples of Precision Manufactured Products Tolerance bMd Electronic Optical 200j,l-m Normal domestic General purpose Camera, telescope, appliances, electricalparts.e.g., binocular bodies automotive fittings, switches, motors, and etc. connectors Normal 50f.l.m General purpose Transistors, diodes, Camera shutters, manufacturing mechanical parts for magnetic heads for lens holders for typewriters, engines, tapereoorders cameras and etc. microscopes S.m Mechanical watch Electrical relays, Lenses, prism, parts, machine tool condensers, silicon optical fiber and bearings, gears, wafers, TV color connectors baUscrews,rotary masks {multimode] compressor parts Precision O.Sj.l.m Ball and roller Magnetic scales, Precisionlenses, manufacturing bearings.precision CCD,quartz optical scales, IC drawn wire, hydraulic oscillatorsmagnetic exposure masks servo-valves, memory bubbles, (phoro.Xcray), aerostatic gyro magnetron, IC line laser mirrors, bearings width, thin film X-ray mirrors, pressure elastic deflection transducers, thermal mirrors,monomode printer heads, thin optical fiber and film head discs connectors O.OS",m Gauge blocks, ICmemories, Optical flats, diamond indentor top electronic video discs, precision Fresnel radius, microtome LSI lenses.optical cutting edge radius, diffraction gratings, uitraprecision optical videodiscs X-Ytables Ultraprecislon O.OO5Ilm Vl.Sf super-lattice Ultraprecision manufacturing thin films diffraction gratings Notes: CCD charge couple device IC-integratedcircuit LSI-largescale integration VLSI-very large scale integration years (Figure 10.2). Important advances in machine tool stiffness have also occurred. Advances in this field have especially been the focus of the research work by TIusty and colleagues (1999). It is valuable to compare Figure 10.2 with Figure 10.3.In semiconductor manu- facturing, the minimum line widths in today's semiconductor logic devices are typically 0.25 to 0.35 micron-wide. These line widths have been decreasing rapidly since the 10.9 layer IV:Bridging Cultures to Create leading Edge Products 417 Machining accuracy urn 100 111,000' or I "thou"-, 10 1 micron 0] 1microinch 0.01 0.001 Ultrapreciston manufacturing 0.3 nm t ~boEk~~~~~ 0.0001 1940 19611 1980 2000 Achievable "machining" accuracy with year (after Nerio Taniguchi) Figure 10.2 Variations over time in machining accuracy. introduction of the integrated circuit around 1960. A large number of technological improvements in VLSI design, lithography techniques, deposition methods, and clean room practices have maintained the size reduction shown in Figure 10.3 over time. The semiconductor industry is concerned that today's optical lithography tech- niques are not accurate enough to maintain the trend in Figure 10.3. Chapter 5 shows a diagram of the projection printing technique used during lithography. The UV light source is focused through a series of lenses. Any distortions in these lenses might cause aberrations in the lighting paths. Furthermore, when the minimum feature size is comparable with the wavelength of the light used in the exposure system, some dif- fraction of the UV rays limits the attainable resolution.' The dilemma being faced is clear: designers are demanding smaller transistors and circuits, but UV lithography is reaching its limits. The natural limit of UV-lithography semiconductor manufacturing today is generally cited to be line widths of 0.13 to 0.18 micron (see Madden and Moore, 1998). This has prompted major research programs in advanced lithography, spon- sored by alliances of semiconductor manufacturing companies (see Chapter 5). Intel, Lucent, and "IBM each have their own alliance, each with its own preferred solution 3 For reference: 0.35 down to 0.25 micron lines make use of UV systems witb wavelengths of 365 down to 248 nanometers (deep UV). Line widths of 0.18 down to 0.13 require a 193-nanometer laser. I Normal j manufacturing Precision manufactu 418 Future Aspects of Manufacturing Chap. 10 • ••• •• • •• • • -0.25-0.35 • -0.15-0.18 -0.03 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 F1pre 10.3 Trends in the precision of semiconductor transistor logic devices. Today typical values are 0.25 to 0.35 micron falling to 0.13 to 0.18 micron as the book goes to press. Research projects are aiming for below 0.1 micron and possibly 0.03 micron by the year 2010. More information on such research is given in the Semiconductor Association Roadmap (see SIA Semiconductor Industry Association <http://www.llemkbips.orp) to the lithography challenge. One example is the alliance between Intel, three national laboratories, and semiconductor equipment suppliers (Peterson, 1997). Using extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography and magnetically levitated stages, the project has the goal of achieving line widths below 0.1 micron, perhaps eventually reaching 0.03 micron. While such technologies are not expected to be commercially available soon, they represent examples of how the trend in Figure 10.3 can continue to be satisfied. In general, as might be expected, cost increases with desired accuracy and pre- cision. For Ie wafer fabrication, the ion implantation devices cost $1 to $2 million. Step-and-repeat lithography systems are several million dollars. The equipment for all aspects of Ie manufacturing is extraordinarily expensive, leading to the projected 10.9 Layer IV: Bridging Cultures to Create Leading Edge Products 4'9 costs of $2.5 billion fabs for the 3OO-mmwafers and 0.13 to 0.18 micron feature sizes. The fabrication of such machines in tum demands highly accurate machine tools and metrology equipment. Thus, while a standard Scaxis CNC milling machine might cost only $60,000 to $150,000 depending on size and performance, the machine tools for the ultraprecision machining of products listed at the bottom of Table 10.1 could cost an order of magnitude more, requiring air-conditioned rooms and frequent calibra- tion by skilled technicians. As mentioned in Chapter 2,Ayres and Miller (1983) provides the succinct def- inition of computer integrated manufacturing (CIM) as "the confluence of the supply elements (such as new computer technologies) and the demand elements (the consumer requirements of flexibility, quality, and variety)." Many examples of this confluence are shown in Table 10.1. Improvements in one technology can be the suppliers to the demands of another complementary tech- nology. In particular, the pressing demands of the semiconductor industry for nar- rower line widths spur all sorts of innovations in the machining of magnetically levitated tables (see Trumper et al., 1996), precision lenses, optical scales, and dif- fraction gratings shown on the bottom right of Table 10.1. Likewise, the complement is true: improved microprocessors have created vastly more precise factory-floor robots and machine tools. In summary, the precision mechanical equipment allows the precision VLSI and optical equipment to be made, which in tum allows the mechanical equipment to be better controlled and even more precise. This is a spiral of increasing capability where all technologies drive each other to higher achievements. How might this spiral be extended to a broader set of disciplines, especially biotechnology? Predicting the future is a dangerous game, especially in a textbook, but some synergies might include the following topics: •The use of computers to decode the human genome and participate in biotechnology is a safe bet for an important area of synergy,where the "needs" of genetic discovery make "demands" on the computer techniques. • Another safe bet for predicting important synergies is the creation of biosen- sors for monitoring and diagnosis. Such sensors combine biology, IC design, and IC microfabrication technologies, with a biological element inside a sensor. Biosensors work via (1) a biological molecular recognition element and (2) physical detectors such as optical devices, quartz crystals, and electrodes. • Specifically, biosensors may well find their most successful applications in the synergy between silicon-based chips and molecular devices. Such a device embedded in the skin could monitor chromosome and cell health. Then, if small deleterious changes were detected, the sensor could essentially prompt the wearer to go to a doctor for some kind of health booster or medicine. To some extent, the wristwatch-like devices that contain insulin and an epidermal patch for penetration through the skin are examples of devices that are a syn- ergy between mechanical design, electronics, and biotech. In principle, this syn- ergy is an extension of wearable computing to biological implants and monitoring devices. 420 Future Aspects of Manufacturing Chap. 10 10.10 CONCLUSIONS TO THE LAYERING PRINCIPLE 1. In any company, sustained growth will depend on the day-to-day implementa- tion of quality assurance, time-to- market, design aesthetics, and an awareness of new cross-disciplinary opportunities. 2. In idle moments, everyone dreams that he or she can invent and develop a fan- tastically new product and become "filthy rich." Nevertheless, the story behind most of today's new products shows many ups and downs over a long period before the product becomes an apparent "overnight success.v'Ihe Palm Pilot is such a story. And even when a product is a clear market leader, such as Apple's original iconic desktop for the Macintosh, there is no guarantee that the product can stay ahead without attention to all the issues listed here. 3. The principle of layering has thus been advocated in this book so that today's students, destined to be the technology managers of the future, do not graduate believing that a "one-of-a-kind miracle solution" will lead to fame and fortune. 10.11 REFERENCES Adams.J. L. 1974. Conceptual hlockhusting:A guide to better ideas. San Francisco and London: Freeman. Ayres, R. u.,and S. M. Miller. 1983. Robotics: Applications and social implications. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Press. Berners-Lee, T. 1997. World-wide computer. Communications oftheACM 40 (2): 57-58 Black, 1.T.1991. The design of a factory with a future. New York: McGraw-Hill. Bollinger, J. 0., and N. A. Duffie. 1988. Computer control of machines and processes. Reading, MA: Addison Wesley. Borrus, M., and 1. Zysman, 1997. Globalization with borders: The rise of Wintelism as the future of industrial competition. Industry and Innovation 4 (2). Also see Wintelism and the changing terms global competition: Prototype of the future. 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P., and G. Moore. 1998. The lawgiver-An interview with Gordon Moore. Red Her- ring Magazine. April,64-69. 10.12 Bibliography 421 Peterson, I. 1997. Pine lines for chips. Science News 152 (November 8): 302-303. Plumb, J. H.1905. England in the eighreenrh century. Middlesex, UK.: Penguin Becks, Rosenberg, N.1967. Perspectives on technology. UK.: Cambridge, England: Cambridge Uni- versity Press. Shapiro, c., and H. R Varian. 1999. tnformouon rules: Boston: Harvard Business School. Spear, S., and H. K. Bowen. 1999. Decoding the DNA of the Toyota production system. Har- vard Business Review, September/October, 97-106. Symonds, M.1999. The Net imperative. Economist, 26 June. Taniguchi,N.1994. Precision in manufacturing. Precision Engineering 16 (1): 5-12. Tanzer,A. Warehouses that fly. Forbes October 18, 120-124. Taylor, F.W. 1911. Principles of scientific management. New York: Harper & Bros. Tlusty, G. 1999. Manufacturing processes and equipment. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall. Trurnper.D, L., W. Kim, and M. E. Williams. 1996. Design and analysis framework for linear permanent-magnet machines. IEEE Transactions on Industry Applications 32 (2): 371-379 Waldo, J. 1999. The Jini architecture for network-centric computing. Communication of the ACM 42 (7): 76-82. Wang, F-C, B. Richards, and P. K. Wright. 1996. A multidisciplinary concurrent design envi- ronment for consumer electronic product design. Journal of Concurrent Engineering: Research and Applications 4 (4): 347-359. 10.12 BIBLIOGRAPHY Bessant.L 1991. MafUlging advanced manufacturing technology: The challenge of the fifth wave. Manchester, UK.: NCC Blackwell. Betz, F. 1993. Strategic technology management. New York: McGraw-Hill. Busby,1. S.1992. The value of advanced manufacturing technology: How to assess the worth of computers in industry Oxford, UK.: Butterworth-Heinemann. Chacko, G. K. 1988. Technology management: Applications to corporate markets and military missions, New York: Praeger. Compton, W. D.1997. Engineering management. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall. Dussauge, P., D. Hart, and B. Ramanantsoa. 1987. Strategic technology management. Chich- ester, UK.: John Wiley & Sons. Edosomwan, 1.A., ed. 1989. People and product management in manufacturing. Amsterdam: Elsevier. Edosomwan, 1.A. 1990. Integrating innovation and technology management. New York: John Wlley&Sons. GaUiker, U E.1990. Technology management in organizations. Newbury Park, CA: Sage Pub- lications. Gattiker, U E., and L. Larwood, eds. 1998. Managing technological development: Strategic and human resource issues. Berlin: Walter deGruyter. Gaynor, G. H 1991. Achieving the competitive edge through integrated technology manage- ment. New York: McGraw-Hili. Gerelle, E. G. R., and 1. Stark. 1988. Integrated manufacturing: Strategy, planning, and imple- mentation. New York: McGraw-Hili. 422 Future Aspects of Manufacturing Chap. 10 Lee, E. A., and D. G. Messerschmitt. 1999. A highest education in the year 2049. 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Lexington, MA: D.C. Heath and Com- pany, Lexington Books. Susman, G. L, ed. 1992. Integrating design and manufacturing for competitive advantage. New York: Oxford University Press. Suzaki, K. 1987. The new manufacturing challenge: Techniques for continuous improvement. New York: Macmillan. Szakonyi, R., ed.1988. Managing new product technology. New York-American Management Association. Szakonyi,R., ed. 1992. Technology management: Case studies in innovation. Boston:Auerbach. Warner, M., W. Wobbe, and P. Bradner, eds. 1990. New technology and manufacturing man- agement: Strategic choices for flexible production systems. Chichester, UK.; John Wiley & Sons. A.I WHO WANTS TO BE AN ENTREPRENEUR] A.1.1 Essential Attitudes: The Creative and Strategic Sid. The key characteristics of a successful entrepreneur include: • An ability to read market trends and consumers' wants, needs, or desires • A blend of creativity in both product design and business operation • The willingness to take financial risks while remaining emotionally balanced • A passion for success combined with an overwhelming drive to succeed •The desire to "change the world" rather than-in a blatant sense-"get rich" A.1.2 Essential Attitudes: The Mundane Side Also, there are mundane, day-to-day activities that any entrepreneur should consider: • Mission statements •Retreats that build communication and integrity while instilling a sense of urgency to satisfy the mission statement • Performance parameters that are clear to all personnel • Display boards to keep the organization focused on the mission and sales record • Daily meetings as a "learning organization" to track deadlines • Interactions between subproject groups via time lines and formal PERT charts • Market scanning methods to track competitors • The ability to circulate and share ideas without criticism • Rewards for the know-how and problem-solving ability of people, acknowl- edging that no amount of expensive equipment and software can substitute for creativity • Integrating knowledge on "downstream" manufacturing (internal and outsourced) • Openness to outside ideas and emerging technologies ••• ApPENDIX: A "WORKBOOK" OF IDEAS FOR PROJECTS, TOURS, MHO B"S1t'p'-;pLANS [...]... product Technical invention Who is the customer? Potential new synergies Business plans Market analysis System assembly Conceptual design phase Detailed design phase Plastic-products manufacturing Metal-products manufacturing / Rapid prototyping and design changes Computer " . aspect of 21st century manufacturing. The reader is first invited to study Taniguchi's Table 10.1 grouped under the headings of (m) mechanical, (e) electrical, and (0) optical. • Normal manufacturing. Technical product invention Potential new synergies Market analysis System assembly 424 Metal-products manufacturing Computer "<, manufacturing Semiconductor manufacturing Who is the customer? Business plans Conceptual design phase Detailed design phase /. require a 193-nanometer laser. I Normal j manufacturing Precision manufactu 418 Future Aspects of Manufacturing Chap. 10 • ••• •• • •• • • -0.25-0.35 • -0 .15- 0.18 -0.03 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000