KINH TẾ VĨ MÔ_CHƯƠNG 2: SỐ LIỆU KINH TẾ VĨ MÔ docx

1 kinh t v mô bn th nm N. Gregory Mankiw Bài ging ca Phm Th Anh pham.theanh@yahoo.com (dch và sa theo bài ging ca Ron Cronovich) CHNG 2 S liu Kinh t V mô macro © 2002 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 1 Mc tiêu ca chng Mc tiêu ca chng    !"#  $%&' (")#  *+,-, CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 2 Tng Sn phm Quc ni Tng Sn phm Quc ni ./01 23 45%4&0 46'7-8 93 :;</=>% ?7-8 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 3 Ti sao chi tiêu = thu nhp Ti sao chi tiêu = thu nhp @&0A BCD :BCE%3 !4:AEF48 :3 @&0A @&0A BCD BCD :BCE%3 :BCE%3 !4:AEF48 !4:AEF48 :3 :3 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 4 Dòng Chu chuyn Dòng Chu chuyn Thu nhp Lao ng Hàng hoá Chi tiêu H gia ình Doanh nghip CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 5 Giá tr gia tng Giá tr gia tng /01 B&,+ %0B >/ %0B%% &,G&6/H7- /I3 2 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 6 Bài tp: Bài tp: ( ( Câu Câu 2 2 , , trang 38 trang 38 ) )  JK&?LEM4E% %748%2ANNO3  P%7H+MEM4E% C+E%48%QANNO3  PC+E%G&6EM/H+ E%4E%;R48%SANNO3  PC;RTE%3 .UV W %0TXYK/X7- W !" CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 7 Hàng hoá cui cùng, giá tr gia tng, và Hàng hoá cui cùng, giá tr gia tng, và GDP GDP  !"Z%0B@%'/= 7- Z%0TB-%K /X7-  %0B%'/UEL%0 B%A &4:4,V%4 !" &[/<\V'V9+]#3 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 8 Các thành phn chi tiêu ca GDP Các thành phn chi tiêu ca GDP ^ &' ^ /] ^ VB ^ 7-;_ CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 9 Tiêu dùng ( Tiêu dùng (   ) ) ^  G&6C;` &7aA/L &'/M ^   G&6C b+ \A]% ^  c4,646 C&' d+A;K3 /01 %0B@ e &4/=ED% /M3 fL CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 10 Tiêu dùng ca M, Tiêu dùng ca M, 2001 2001 $ O g !" &' h3NSiAj SkA9 l?E5 mjmAQ mAi nK+?E5 93NjjA2 9NA2 !046 i32j2A2 iNAh CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 11 u t u t ( (   ) ) o01245E p?7-q3 o019%646 6/VG&6+3 fL   !" 7D4%I& ,G&6/H7-e&4;%   # 45DEDC&'4B/-  $ \/%0L;B&, 3 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 12 u t ca M, u t ca M, 2001 2001 $ O g !" o ]  O23SQQAk 2SAN ( /0 B !P 239iSAN 29A9 ( /0 B &? iiSAQ iAi .L ; rjmAi rNAS CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 13 u t và T bn u t và T bn  E+c? -3 X@C/HA5;<I+= E-/03  o]+45E83 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 14 u t và T bn u t và T bn sV&6 G;KI_#   2t2t9NN9 5;<I+=E0%jNN$O  T 9NN9 /] ZQh$O  2t2t9NNQ 5;<I+=E0%jQh$O CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 15 Lng và Dòng Lng và Dòng % & BC <;,BC CI C8 EF/X@ ,/X@ =VB ?6?% Dòng Lng sV&6;% CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 16 Chi tiêu chính ph Chi tiêu chính ph ( (   ) )  EL-%;45 %4&046BVB3   ;KEL%;% H 4V&6 EH-,#A ED4M ;K/X&,45%4 &0463 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 17 Chi tiêu chính ph, Chi tiêu chính ph, 2001 2001 $ O g !" (V B 23mQkAj 2mAN  S2jAh SAN "?\ r 92SAS 9A2 u?\ QkkAN QAk o0  2399QAm 29AN 4 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 18 Xut khu ròng Xut khu ròng ( ( '()*( '()*( + + , , ) ) /01 %0B7-;*(# >/%0B:;,# Xut khu ròng ca M, 1960-2000 -400 -350 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 t $ CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 19 Mt ng nht thc quan trng Mt ng nht thc quan trng - Z v v v'( /I - Z !"Z%0B  v v v'( Z CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 20 Câu hi: Câu hi: G&,  7-%'0%2N ,O  $E%48%k,O3 l,/5I4X /L-Z:w CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 21 Ti sao sn lng = chi tiêu Ti sao sn lng = chi tiêu  xE%/=V4L ;A4/=V+y/]L;z {E-;H\TL;+IB /V;K3  \-//0& ,E%/=B V@3 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 22 GDP: GDP: Mt khái nim quan trng và d thay i Mt khái nim quan trng và d thay i (E<F !"/+C  :  +=    %0TB-% K/X7-% ' CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 23 GNP GNP và GDP và GDP  x .  P"# :XED%?7-B AE-;HD/?3  x . /  !"# :XED%?7- 8A E-;H5Dc3  P"W !"#Z:?:>8# W :?8# 5 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 24 Câu hi tho lun: Câu hi tho lun: |8A !"  P"+8 wXw CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 25 (GNP (GNP – – GDP) GDP) theo % GDP theo % GDP  mt s n c,  mt s n c, 1997. 1997. }3x3~3 NA2 f+&a QAQ f•+ r9AN (& rQA9 (+a rmAm )a+& r2SA9 n€ 9NAm Ja7 rQA9 x&~E QAQ xa iA9  CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 26 (GNP (GNP – – GDP) GDP) theo %GDP theo %GDP  mt s n c,  mt s n c, 1997. 1997. }3x3~3 NA2g  f+&a QAQ f•+ r9AN (& rQA9 (+a rmAm )a+& r2SA9 n€ 9NAm Ja7 rQA9 x&~E QAQ xa iA9  CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 27 GDP Th!c t và Danh ngha GDP Th!c t và Danh ngha  !"%0 B-%%4 &046'/=7-3  012/+Cc%0 a%,3  0134/+Cc%0 a%BTD3 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 28 GDP th!c t và lm phát GDP th!c t và lm phát x\/B !"&1IH+&  \/B%  \/B+= x\/B !" $ IH&\/ B+=A ED4M !"\</=Va%/0 BTD3 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 29 Thc hành, phn Thc hành, phn 1 1  V !"&1BYT  V !"\<BYTa% BTD9NN23 9NNQ9NN99NN2 9NjO2NN9NNO2N92k9O2NN f 23NjNOQS23NNNOQ2kNNOQN ~ u"u"u" 6 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 30 áp án ca phn 1 áp án ca phn 1  !"&1 ?" euB'T 9NN2OiS39NN ZOQN× kNNvO2NN × 2k9 9NN9Oj23iNN 9NNQOjm3QNN  !"\< ?uBYT48%DT 9NN2 9NN2OiS3QNN 9NN9OjN3NNN 9NNQOj93NNN ZOQN× 2NjNvO2NN × 9Nj CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 31 !"\<4&1BJ1A !"\<4&1BJ1A 2kSh 2kSh r r 9NN2 9NN2 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 (t" ôla M) NGDP (billions of $) RGDP (billions of 1996 $) CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 32 Ch s i#u chnh GDP Ch s i#u chnh GDP  56!78" +]TT B%3  J8/B%+9:  901A /=V × !" !"& ! Z2NN !"a CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 33 Thc hành, Thc hành, phn phn 2 2  xG&6/%%B]8/HV$/5 $ !"BYT3  xG&6$/5$ !"/HV*+,+X% >9NN2 /< 9NN9A4>9NN9 /<9NNQ3 j93NNN jN3NNN OiS39NN !"\ < ! !" jm3QNN9NNQ j23iNN9NN9 rrr OiS39NN9NN2 *+,+X % !"& 1 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 34 áp án ca phn áp án ca phn 2 2 j93NNN jN3NNN OiS39NN !"\ < 229A2 2N9Am 2NNAN ! !" k32gjm3QNN9NNQ 93mgj23iNN9NN9 rrr OiS39NN9NN2 *+,+X % !"& 1 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 35 Ch s i#u chnh GDP Ch s i#u chnh GDP sV&648Q% % i Z2A9AQ " it Z%0CB% i %  u it Z+=B% i 7-%  !" t Z !"&1B%  !" t Z !" \<B%  7 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 36 Ch s i#u chnh GDP Ch s i#u chnh GDP = ×  !"  !" !  !" 100 2 2 9 9 Q Q  " u " u " u • !" + + = ×100         = × + +                   2 9 Q 2 9 Q    u u u " " " !" !" !" 100 ($/5$ !" +EMI@B%3 @BY+X%%]@ /B%/I !"3 (‚F@IH/aC3 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 37 Tính phn trm thay i Tính phn trm thay i s& P<5+aCBEXTjg 4C+4,T hgA M:5+T7-7$29g3 (%2 s8E-;`E<( 4 - A ]T/B ( × - # ≈ ]T/B ( v]T/B - (%2 (%2 s8E-;`E< s8E-;`E< ( ( 4 4 - - A A ]T/B ]T/B ( ( × × - - # # ≈ ≈   ] ]   T T   / /   B B   ( ( v v ]T/B ]T/B - - CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 38 Tính phn trm thay i Tính phn trm thay i s& ! !" Z2NN× !"  t !"  3 P< !"  T kg4 !"  T igA M*+,+X%7-7$ jg3 (%9 ]T/B (t- # ≈ ]T/B ( − −− − ]T/B - (%9 (%9 ]T/B ]T/B ( ( t t - - # # ≈ ≈ ]T/B ]T/B ( ( − −− − − −− −   ] ]   T T   / /   B B   - - CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 39 GDP th!c t theo chu$i GDP th!c t theo chu$i  aC%//A&4:T D/=::C;`3  s5EA y !"\<aYz::T DYT3  o5+ !"\<aYV7%  !"a%/03  8/I/A4 4,V !"\<a%/0&ƒ&{  {&4:G&6 !"\<Va %/03 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 40 Ch s giá tiêu dùng Ch s giá tiêu dùng (CPI) (CPI)  l8/45%  o=KEED5;5 < =>#  o=G&6/H W a&„\/BVX BC&'/HM W /5$%=/La+X% W %c;5D%T ;% CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 41 GSO xây dng CPI nh th nào GSO xây dng CPI nh th nào 23 o5/M/H7%/0 ]B…%/HM 93 .%:+,45%B >d…†VVVB … Q3 (")%EF48 × (& 2NN (; 8 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 42 Bài tp: Bài tp: Tính Tính CPI CPI …L 9N%42N/1(!3 a % (! 9NNN O2N O2j 9NN2 O22 O2j 9NN9 O29 O2S 9NNQ O2Q O2j YTUV  VB…  (")G&6T 9NNN+TD#  *+,+X%48 T8 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 43 V *+, … (") +X% 9NNN OQjN 2NNAN rrr 9NN2 QhN 2NjAh jAhg 9NN9 iNN 22iAQ mA2g 9NNQ i2N 22hA2 9Ajg áp án: áp án: CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 44 Thành phn ca gi hàng tính CPI (ca M) Thành phn ca gi hàng tính CPI (ca M) 16.2% 40.0% 4.5% 17.6% 5.8% 5.9% 2.8% 2.5% 4.8% Thc phm và  ung Nhà  qun áo i li Chm sóc y t Gii trí Giáo dc Liên lc HH & DV khác CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 45 Ch s giá Ch s giá CPI CPI sV&648Q% .% i Z2A9AQ ( i Z+=% i …(") " it Z%% i %  ‡  ZVB… (")%  ‡ E ZVB…C;`D CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 46 Ch s giá CPI Ch s giá CPI = ×  E ‡ (") ‡ 100   2 2 9 9 Q Q E " ( v " ( v " ( ‡ = ×100 Q 2 9 2 9 Q E E E ( ( ( " " " ‡ ‡ ‡         = × + +                   100 (")+EMI@B%+X%3 @BY+X%%]@ /B%/I… (")3 (‚F@/0aC3 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 47 Nhng lý do ti sao CPI Nhng lý do ti sao CPI có th phóng i lm phát có th phóng i lm phát  ?!@4 (")G&6@/0A &4:I ;KH%;TC&'H &'c%I%/3  =3AB!8C x\7-,% 8+C&'U4A\- ++T%0\B/L53 I;K +(")AED4M(")G&6@/03  DE%:3@;B% x\<-+=+T%0/L5A IC;K/=V/<%/]/B3 9 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 48  lch ca CPI  lch ca CPI  f;"a+8V (")I/X\TBV X2A2gYT3  n< 6;J1/U/5 $%V(")F++, 3  PCF/+,(")- 2gT3 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 49 Ch # tho lun: Ch # tho lun:  P<EBEX:/==-7UA E0DMED/+,(")w  (VB+-5D/?/H=- 7Uw  P<EX<:4EH7U A/+,(")ID< /<EXw  l,IVB%5= -7UEBEXw  …%&'BEEXIM ;%48…%&'/HV(")w CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 50 CPI CPI và ch s i#u chnh và ch s i#u chnh GDP GDP %%E ^ /=%! !" </=7- 8# ^ ;K/=%(") %&':; ^ /=%(") ^ ;K/=%! !" …% ^ (")/0 ^ ! !"  /T CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 51 Hai th c o lm phát Hai th c o lm phát 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 - 2 % thay i 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 Nm 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 CPI D GDP CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 52 Các thành phn trong tng dân s Các thành phn trong tng dân s  F!8 \,K4,/=  B!" ;KI4,/M4,  3%/ +=+/ˆ7-% 4&046†-cCI4, -,  G83%/ ;KI4,A;KM4,3 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 53 Hai khái nim quan trng v# Hai khái nim quan trng v# l!c lng lao ng l!c lng lao ng  6!B!" ]T+\+=+/;KI 4,+  6!83%/ ]&?4+\+=+ / 10 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 54 Bài tp: Bài tp: Tính nhng thng kê v lc Tính nhng thng kê v lc lng lao ng lng lao ng 0: H#,2"IF8J K8 LMML (I4,+ Z 2QiAN ++ -, Z mAS ++ !?D Z 92QAj ++ xG&6+,/HV ^ +\+=+/ ^ C;KT+\+=+/ ^ *+,4+\+=+/ ^ *+,-, CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 55 áp án: áp án:  +, * Z2QiANA N ZmASA 1>1 Z92QAj  +\+=+/ ? Z * v N Z2QiAN vmAS Z2i9AS  ;KF+\+=+/ '?O Z 1>1 W ? Z92QAj W 2i9AS ZhNAk  *+,-, NP? ZmASt2i9AS ZNANS  SANg  *+,4+\+=+/ ?P1>1 Z2i9ASt92QAj ZNASSm  SmAmg CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 56 Bài tp: Bài tp: Tính phn trm thay i ca Tính phn trm thay i ca các thng kê v lc lng lao ng các thng kê v lc lng lao ng GF  &?T 2g  +\+=+/T Qg  C-,T 9g V]T/B *+,4+\+=+/ LQ *+,-,+ RQ CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 57  l/I4,+7- !"A_+/;KI4,+M ;K3 !4:&\/% ,0c-, 4 !"\<3  J,/=$„ +,{ Quy lut Okun Quy lut Okun CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 58 Quy lut Okun Quy lut Okun 1951 1984 1999 2000 1993 1982 1975 Thay i ca t l tht nghip 10 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 43 8 6 4 2 0 -2 Phn trm thay i ca GDP thc t Quy lut Okun cho rng mt phn trm gim ca tht nghip tng ng vi hai phn trm tng ca GDP thc t Quy lut Okun cho rng mt phn trm gim ca tht nghip tng ng vi hai phn trm tng ca GDP thc t CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics The Data of Macroeconomics slide 59 Tóm t%t chng Tóm t%t chng 23 xu !"#/+C :445%4&046 B5;<3 93 !"&1/0%+=a%, † !"\</0%+= a% /03x\/B+=ID/< 8/A\/B% $D/< !"&13 Q3 !"+&'A/]AVBA 47-;_3 . 1 kinh t v mô bn th nm N. Gregory Mankiw Bài ging ca Phm Th Anh pham.theanh@yahoo.com (dch và sa theo bài ging ca Ron Cronovich) CHNG 2 S liu Kinh t V mô macro ©