kepler swiss seminar 2010 bernhard a fuchs head investor relations marco knuchel investor relations holcim ltd

© Holcim Ltd 2010 Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010 Bernhard A. Fuchs – Head Investor Relations Marco Knuchel – Investor Relations March 24, 2010 St. Genevieve plant 2 © Holcim Ltd 2010 March 2010 Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010 Agenda 1 Results 2009 and outlook 2010 2 Strategy geared to growth areas 3 Value-driven investment criteria 4 Attractiveness of Holcim’s capex program 5 Conclusions 3 © Holcim Ltd 2010 March 2010 Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010 Results 2009 • Full market impact from the economic crises; volume loss in all main products in Europe and North America > -20% • Geographical positioning mitigated cement volume reduction to only -7% • Prices held up well in all segments • Significant efforts on fixed cost reductions CHF 857 million • Op. EBITDA like for like (lfl) -5.1%, margin up +1.2 pp • Strong cash flow (lfl +12%) and lower CAPEX allowed to reduce NFD by 1.2 bn, while maturity was extended • Dividend payout ratio one third maintained; CHF 1.50 per share 4 © Holcim Ltd 2010 March 2010 Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010 Key financial figures – 2009 1 Includes a capital gain on the sale of a stake in Holcim South Africa of CHF 1,110 million and a special dividend of CHF 150 million, net 2 Includes a special dividend of CHF 150 million, net related to the sale of a stake in Holcim South Africa 3 Calculated on the weighted average number of shares outstanding retrospectively restated in accordance with IAS 33 4 Paid as a stock dividend 5 Proposed by the Board of Directors LFL CIS FX Total Sales volumes - Cement (mt) 149.6 143.4 131.9 -6.8% -1.2% -8.0% - Aggregates (mt) 187.9 167.7 143.4 -19.6% 5.1% -14.5% - Ready-mix (mm 3 ) 45.2 48.5 41.8 -17.5% 3.7% -13.8% Net sales 27,052 25,157 21,132 -10.0% 0.8% -6.8% -16.0% Operating EBITDA 6,930 5,333 4,630 -5.1% -0.7% -7.4% -13.2% Operating profit 5,024 3,360 2,781 -7.3% -2.1% -7.8% -17.2% Net income before minorities 4,545 1 2,226 1,958 -5.8% -1.0% -5.2% -12.0% Net income attr. to Holcim shareholders 3,865 1 1,782 1,471 -11.2% -1.7% -4.6% -17.5% Cash flow 5,323 2 3,703 3,888 12.0% 1.6% -8.6% 5.0% EPS CHF 3 9.21 6.27 4.93 -21.4% Dividend/share CHF 3.30 2.25 4 1.50 5 -33.3% Million CHF (if not otherwise stated) +/- 2007 2008 2009 5 © Holcim Ltd 2010 March 2010 Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010 Outlook 2010 • Europe: the markets will only recover slowly • North America: no rapid recovery on the construction market • Latin America: construction industry will remain solid • Africa Middle East: a stable economic environment • Asia Pacific: markets will continue to grow • Acquisition in Australia will make a solid contribution • The cost advantages realized will be retained • Focus remains on process efficiency and strengthening competitiveness • Holcim will start the next upturn from a stronger position 6 © Holcim Ltd 2010 March 2010 Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010 Agenda 1 Results 2009 and outlook 2010 2 Strategy geared to growth areas 3 Value-driven investment criteria 4 Attractiveness of Holcim’s capex program 5 Conclusions 7 © Holcim Ltd 2010 March 2010 Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010 Holcim strategy… …effective execution is the base for success 1 Reported as per 12M 2009 YTD Product Focus Geographic Diversification Local Management Global Standards • Two basic resources • Cement • Aggregates • Value-adding products and services • Ready-mix concrete • Asphalt • Concrete products • Business – strongly anchored in local markets • Supported by global standards • Policies & directives • Exchange of know how & best practices / benchmarking • Truly global • Balanced between • regions • mature / emerging markets 34% 16 % 15 % 6% 29% 25% 8% 22% 8% 37% Latin America Africa Middle East Asia Pacific Europe North America Net sales 1 Op. EBITDA 1 8 © Holcim Ltd 2010 March 2010 Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010 1970 2000 2030 2050 0 5 10 1.3 2.4 2.9 3.2 5.0 3.3 6.4 2.8 urban rural 1970 2000 2030 2050 0 5 10 1.3 2.4 2.9 3.2 5.0 3.3 6.4 2.8 urban rural 0 5 10 2050 1970 2000 2030 0 5 10 Emerging markets Mature markets 0 5 10 2050 1970 2000 2030 0 5 10 0 5 10 2050 1970 2000 2030 0 5 10 Emerging markets Mature markets Demand drivers – population growth and urbanization World population • Likely little or even no population growth in most developed countries while population growth in emerging countries will continue • In emerging and mature countries migration from rural areas into urban agglomerations will continue Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, March 2009 – in billion Population in rural and urban areas 9 © Holcim Ltd 2010 March 2010 Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010 34% 66% Demand driver – GDP growth rates in emerging markets are expected to be higher Continued and growing importance of emerging countries – the place where best growth opportunities will be found World GDP growth (% per year) 44% 56% GDP share 2008 vs. 2020E Emerging markets Mature markets 2008 2020 • Global GDP growth of 3.5 to 4% on average p.a. expected in the next decade Source: Global Construction 2020, Global Construction Perspectives, Oxford Economics, November 2009 2005 2010 2015 2020 Emerging markets Mature markets World 0 5 10 -5 2005 2010 2015 2020 Emerging markets Mature markets World 0 5 10 -5 10 © Holcim Ltd 2010 March 2010 Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010 Global construction outlook Holcim – very well positioned to capture growth opportunities USA 1 China 2 Japan 3 Germany 4 Spain 5 France 6 Italy 7 South Korea 8 India 9 UK 10 Canada 11 Brazil 12 Australia 13 Russia 14 Indonesia 15 China 1 USA 2 India 3 Japan 4 South Korea 5 Germany 6 Spain 7 Russia 8 UK 9 Canada 10 France 11 Italy 12 Indonesia 13 Brazil 14 Australia 15 Largest construction markets 2009E Largest construction markets 2020E Global ranking Global ranking Source: Global Construction 2020, Global Construction Perspectives, Oxford Economics, November 2009 [...]... Construction Materials and Services © Holcim Ltd 2010 Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010 March 2010 Agenda 1 Results 2009 and outlook 2010 2 Strategy geared to growth areas 3 Value-driven investment criteria 4 Attractiveness of Holcim s capex program 5 Conclusions 13 © Holcim Ltd 2010 Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010 March 2010 We invested at the right time Holcim expansion capex vs consolidated capacity (in CHF... forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise 20 © Holcim Ltd 2010 Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010 March 2010 Contact information and event calendar Contact information Event calendar Bernhard A Fuchs Marco Knuchel Binit Sanghvi May 4, 2010 Results for the first quarter 2010 May 6, 2010 General meeting of shareholders August 19, 2010 Half-year results for 2010 November... and value creation • Expansion activities and acquisitions have positioned Holcim in the fastest growing emerging and resilient mature markets • Stringent investment criteria are the cornerstone for our capital allocation Holcim s investments will generate an estimated CHF 2.3bn in additional op EBITDA 19 © Holcim Ltd 2010 Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010 March 2010 Disclaimer Cautionary statement regarding... 2007 Actual1 2009 Actual 49 143 42 2007 Actual1 2009 Actual 75 80 30 50 2007 Actual1 2009 Actual • Prime asset base and locations with solid long term demand drivers • High quality aggregates with over 70 years of reserves Existing assets can generate an additional CHF 1bn op EBITDA on a like-for-like basis 1 Adjusted for change in structure to show like-for-like comparison © Holcim Ltd 2010 Kepler – Swiss. .. EBITDA Eastern Europe Mature markets (Western Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand) op EBITDA (% of Group): Capacity expansion 2007/2011: op EBITDA (% of Group): Capacity expansion 2007/2011: ~8% 6.6 Mt ~30% 4.7 Mt Asia Pacific (w/o AUS, NZL) op EBITDA (% of Group): Capacity expansion 2007/2011: ~32% 12.3 Mt Latin America Construction output forecast CAGR 2010/ 2020 op EBITDA (% of Group): Capacity... million) (Mtpa) Expansion capital expenditures Cement Capacity • Expansion capital expenditure peaked in 2008 while commissioning of cement capacity is peaking now The capacity expansion adds 28 million tonnes between 2007 to 2011 and will generate additional > CHF 900m 14 © Holcim Ltd 2010 Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010 March 2010 Holcim exposure is geared towards emerging markets which account for ~70%... services • 249 plants • Sales 2008: 6.3 million m3 • 16 pipe and precast plants Australia will generate an additional > CHF 400m op EBITDA 1 Cement Australia is a joint venture owned 75% by Holcim and 25% by HeidelbergCement © Holcim Ltd 2010 Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010 16 March 2010 We are well positioned to capitalize on the recovery Cement volumes sold Aggregates volumes sold Ready-mix volumes sold... Swiss Seminar 2010 17 March 2010 Agenda 1 Results 2009 and outlook 2010 2 Strategy geared to growth areas 3 Value-driven investment criteria 4 Attractiveness of Holcim s capex program 5 Conclusions 18 © Holcim Ltd 2010 Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010 March 2010 Conclusions • Solid results in 2009 given the challenging environment • Sound strategy and effective execution are the prerequisites for success and... results for 2010 November 10, 2010 Press and analyst conference for the third quarter 2010 March 2, 2011 Press and analyst conference for the annual results for 2010 Investor Relations Phone +41 58 858 87 87 Fax +41 58 858 80 09 investor. relations@ holcim. com www .holcim. com/investors Mailing list: www .holcim. com/subscribe 21 © Holcim Ltd 2010 Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010 March 2010 ...Agenda 1 Results 2009 and outlook 2010 2 Strategy geared to growth areas 3 Value-driven investment criteria 4 Attractiveness of Holcim s capex program 5 Conclusions 11 © Holcim Ltd 2010 Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010 March 2010 Holcim investment criteria – set to secure long-term above average returns Product Focus • Strategic fit • Position taking in line with maturity profile of the market: • . © Holcim Ltd 2010 Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010 Bernhard A. Fuchs – Head Investor Relations Marco Knuchel – Investor Relations March 24, 2010 St. Genevieve plant 2 © Holcim Ltd 2010 March 2010 Kepler. 6 Italy 7 South Korea 8 India 9 UK 10 Canada 11 Brazil 12 Australia 13 Russia 14 Indonesia 15 China 1 USA 2 India 3 Japan 4 South Korea 5 Germany 6 Spain 7 Russia 8 UK 9 Canada 10 France 11 Italy. share 4 © Holcim Ltd 2010 March 2010 Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010 Key financial figures – 2009 1 Includes a capital gain on the sale of a stake in Holcim South Africa of CHF 1,110 million and a special