The New Energy Crisis: Climate, Economics and Geopolitics

The worldwide energy scene is facing a triple crisis. First of all, there is a crisis of supply: the existing and foreseeable capacity cannot assure the supply of energy under all circumstances, taking into account the growth of random phenomena, whether they are technical, accidental, politi cal or meteorological. Secondly, there is the climate crisis: the present tendencies of consumption and production of energy lead inevitably to the emission of greenhouse gases which would amount, in 2050, to five times more than the IPCC – a consensus of the world’s scientists – considers acceptable. And finally, there is the economic crisis: the spec tacular increase in and the volatility of energy prices contribute to a slowing down of worldwide economic activity and drive the poorest countries into desperate circumstances. An effort to remain analytic has often led to the treatment of these three crises independently, or even in mutual opposition. It has often been said that one must choose between economic growth and combat ing climate change, or that the liberalisation of the European electricity and gas markets could only compromise environmental security. TheNewEnergyCrisisoffersanalternative. Beyondtheobservationthat supplies are uncertain, that the emissions of CO 2 are skyrocketing and that prices are increasing, JeanMarie Chevalier and other contributors study the causes and propose remedies. And here we discover that the causes are similar and, therefore, the remedies are largely the same

[...]... share the same diagnostic, while the urgency and the need for action are global 2 Geopolitics of energy: wealth, money and power The geopolitics of energy concerns the balance of power among nations and companies for access to energy resources and, within each nation, the management of energy issues and resources In oil and gas exporting countries, the geopolitics of energy is closely associated with the. .. given at the initial moment For example, the structure of the current energy systems, with their inertia and rigidities, the structure of the energy industry, the amount of available energy resources (under present knowledge and conditions), and the current state of energy technologies can all be considered as predetermined elements Other predetermined elements are demographic evolution and the assumptions... forms of energy, between their physical forms and their financial forms, between the present and the future, and between energy consumption and CO2 emissions It has also contributed to create volatility which might be a source of fragility In the last chapter we examine how it is possible to overcome the new energy crisis What can be expected from energy technologies such as nuclear and renewables?... for the economic development of the poorest while maintaining a sustainable planet? This first chapter is about the world’s economic and energy dynamics It raises the question 8 The New Energy Crisis of human energy needs and available resources Then, we will try to analyse, from the present situation, the driving forces that are shaping the future How strong are the current historical trends and what... comes from economics, politics and culture • Economic dynamics divide the rich and the poor (within each nation and worldwide): resource scarcity and prices; short-term profit and long-term benefits; public goods (such as the climate) and private goods; the physical flows (the quiet coal barges on the river as described by Fernand Braudel) vs the exuberance of financial derivatives • Politics and geopolitics. .. it, meaning that most places in the world are interconnected through the internet and associated technologies 1 The world energy balance: an unsustainable evolution The world energy balance describes the contribution of each energy source to world primary energy demand.2 At the beginning of the twentyfirst century, the main characteristic of the world energy situation is the overwhelming dominance of... to the exhaustion of oil and gas reserves The new crisis comes from the recent intrusion of climate change issues into energy economics and geopolitics The reality of climate change has been hidden and long denied Today the warming of the climate is a proven reality and acknowledged by the international scientific community, but no one knows exactly what will be the physical, economic, geopolitical and. .. the entire annual oil production of the Middle East This is just impossible Two other planets would be needed 1 2 The New Energy Crisis On the one hand, millions of people need to increase their energy consumption to feed their economic development On the other hand, GHG emissions must be reduced to keep the planet clean and acceptable for the coming generations The situation is aggravated if we take... interests, or their perceptions of them, in the fight against climate change, using energy as a diplomatic weapon, without excluding the possibility that it may become a weapon in the real sense Certainly politicians talk about energy a great deal But do they listen to each other? Do they try to understand the difficulties and the specific challenges that each of them must face up to? One can suspect and fear... Gas 23% Nuclear Hydro 3% Biomass and waste Other renewables 7% 22% 31% Figure 1.1 The world primary energy balance Source: CGEMP based on data available from IEA (2007) (6 per cent), hydro (2 per cent) and other renewables (Figure 1.1) From the current energy balance, the IEA is building scenarios In the reference scenario, there is no change in energy policies and the projection for 2030 is just unsustainable . ix Notes on the Contributors xi Foreword by Claude Mandil xiv Introduction 1 Jean-Marie Chevalier 1. The New Energy Crisis 6 Jean-Marie Chevalier 2. The Questioned Sustainability of the Carbon-Dependent Asian. w0 h0" alt="" The New Energy Crisis: Climate, Economics and Geopolitics Also by Jean-Marie Chevalier: (co-editor Gallimard) LES GRANDES BATAILLES DE L’ ÉNERGIE The New Energy Crisis Climate,. Director, International Energy Agency (IEA) This page intentionally left blank Introduction Jean-Marie Chevalier This book is about the new energy crisis. The new energy crisis is not related