Final project course business organization and management topic vietnam's situation in the green energy trend

With the above five scenarios, the energy industry can improve energy efficiency and efficiency, reduce energy consumption in production, transportation, trade and industrial activities,

TOPIC: Vietnam's situation in the green energy trend

Table of Contents

2 Contextualization 06

4, RANK & RANGE H

5 Name & Frame: Develop plausible sC€f4TÏOS .s-55 555 s5 ss5< <5 12

8 Validation and refinement 16

9 Interpretation and implementation 18

I Executive summary

Solar, wind, and hydropower are examples of non-fossil natural resources that may be used to create green energy natural gas and marine energy After usage, these sources of energy are renewable Although many nations are already implementing the trend of utilizing green energy, even industrialized nations have significant challenges when it comes to the usage of green energy external issues with varying degrees of influence, such as those related to politics, culture, the environment, and the economy When the trend toward green energy moved to Vietnam, the team

as a whole synthesized and developed a scenario by incorporating both internal and external trends

In order for Vietnam to keep up with the trends, there are five situations and technologies that may

be used

+ case 1: Vietnam meets the net-zero target

+ case 2: Vietnam meets the net-zero target and also drives economic growth

+ case 3: Vietnam achieved net-zero but made a disparities in development

+ case 4: Some external driver ruins the project pace

+ case 5: A tragedy happens that hinders Vietnam's goal and strains the economy

With the above five scenarios, the energy industry can improve energy efficiency and efficiency,

reduce energy consumption in production, transportation, trade and industrial activities, and ensure

energy security

pg 3

as a basis for strategic dialogue within the organization These scenarios act as a launching pad for continuous learning and adaptation, allowing organizations to refine decisions so that if anything happens in the future, we are not caught off guard and always have the optimal solution to deal with it

Furthermore, scenario planning equips us with important information, prepares us with directions, and prepares resources and human resources Although the future may bring some unpredictable situations, we can still take the initiative and face it with more confidence This advanced thinking approach not only helps organizations predict and mitigate risks but also empowers them to seize new opportunities, ensuring that they remain sustainable and competitive in an ever-changing world, helping organizations grow stronger

We have always known that economic growth and development depend on natural resources, advanced technology, and human resources However, in the context of an increasingly changing global climate, the pressure on environmental protection is becoming more intense The transition

to green energy is emerging as a key factor in shaping the economic future of countries There are many studies and policies showing that, in addition to protecting the environment, the trend of shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy is also an opportunity for innovation, sustainable growth, and improving a country's competitive position in the energy sector

According to reports from the International Energy Agency (IEA), countries leading this trend are making economically and environmentally significant progress Vietnam, with its abundant natural resources and strong economic development potential, has set a target of achieving net zero emissions by 2050 as committed at the COP26 Climate Change Conference This commitment has

In this paper, our team will discuss the trend of 'Vietnam in the Green Energy Transition,’ using the scenario planning framework as a primary tool The drivers of the trend, potential scenarios, along with reflections on how these scenarios can be interpreted and applied in practice, will be analyzed

in detail throughout the report These analyses will not only shed light on the path Vietnam may take to achieve its net-zero emissions target by 2050 but also propose strategies to maximize opportunities arising from the green energy trend

H Main body heading

1 Determine the question

The market for the green energy sector is still expanding and growing at the moment By 2022, solar capacity in the European Union (EU) will manage to nearly double for developed nations due

to the EU's frantic push for nuclear and renewable energy investments; "wind and solar power together produce more electricity (22%) than natural gas for the first time in history Europe" (Jayanti, 2023) According to the IEA ( International Energy Agency), two major powers—the US and Russia—are pushing the trade of natural gas Russia, on the other hand, encourages the rerouting of energy exports to Asia Russian crude oil transportation by sea to Asian partners is still going strong, accounting for more than 71% of Russia's total crude oil exports in 2023 with mainly

to India at 1 million barrels a day

However, the market still has many countries that desire to jump in, Vietnam itselfas a significant player in the green energy trend, with the commitment to net zero and ambitious renewable energy goals set by its Power Development Plan VIII (PDP8) The country aims to decarbonize its power sector by approximately 78 percent, leveraging its natural suitability for developing wind and solar energy, which has a technical potential of 1,000 gigawatts Despite an initial surge in renewable projects, driven by favorable feed-in tariffs, Vietnam faces challenges in making these projects economically viable due to regulatory and market constraints also with the lack of technical advantage

From here, we can see that Vietnam's green energy industry is very promising but at the same time has many risks, so the question is how will Vietnam's situation progress in the future?

2 Contextualization

Vietnam is one of the fastest-growing economies in Southeast Asia, which may result in rising energy consumption When urbanization and industrialization expand, this creates pressures on the existing energy infrastructure The energy sector is heavily reliant on fossil fuels, particularly coal, which contributes to high greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution Coal-fired power plants dominate the energy mix, though oil and natural gas also play significant roles

To solve the problem Vietnam has set ambitious goals for renewable energy in its National Power Development Plan The country aims to diversify its energy mix and reduce reliance on coal by increasing the share of renewable energy sources This plan outlines specific targets for renewable energy, including a significant increase in wind and solar power capacity It aims to enhance energy efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions

Recently Vietnam has seen a dramatic rise in solar power installations, due to policies and incentives The country has become a leading market for solar photovoltaic (PV) projects in Southeast Asia Also Vietnam is investing in wind energy, with several large-scale onshore and offshore wind farms planned or under construction The government has introduced supportive regulations and financial mechanisms to attract investment in this sector

Improving energy efficiency is a key focus of the government strategy, with efforts to modernize infrastructure, promote energy-saving technologies, and encourage energy-efficient practices

across industries and households

While policies are in place, there are ongoing challenges in implementing and enforcing regulations Streamlining the regulatory process and providing clear financial incentives can help attract more investment in green energy projects

In summary, Vietnam is making significant strides toward a greener energy future, driven by policy support and growing investments in renewable energy However, achieving these goals will require overcoming various challenges and continuing to adapt and innovate in the face of evolving energy

needs and environmental considerations

2 Government policies The government has implemented numerous policies and initiatives to promote the development of the energy industry such as Resolution 29-NQ/TW and the Power Development Plan (PDP) that can set ambitious targets for the industry and guide investment

3 International Relations and Agreements Vietnam has played a role in the green energy sector in the world More specifically the government of Vietnam Committed to international climate agreements, such as the net-zero emission, the Paris Agreement This requires Vietnam to be a more sustainable energy source These commitments can lead to increased support and funding from international partners

2 The global target The development of the world energy industry in recent years shows that there has been a restructuring of the energy industry with changes in policies, structures and technologies: from the production and consumption of traditional fossil fuel sources (coal, oil, natural gas) to sustainable renewable energy sources (wind, solar, biomass, etc.)

3 The exist of new business Many individuals who have solar energy facilities are choosing to sell the product to the government, this requires a bigger budget to manage the trading along with the production

4 Cost of technology The cost that Vietnam pays for renewable energy technologies such as solar panels and wind turbines is influenced by global market conditions and local economic factors With the growth

of the economy of Vietnam, the country now can purchase power and lower costs through economies of scale and technological advancements Conversely, economic challenges might make it harder to afford or import these technologies

2 Temperature

While Viet Nam has experienced a substantial increase in solar power plants connected to the grid in 2020, the country still has a vast remaining potential for deployment of renewable energy technologies

3 Land With a coastline of 3,260 km, Viet Nam has large potential for

offshore wind power On land, the country has already proved to be ready to tap into the potential of solar PV Rooftop solar is prioritized previously to reduce peak load and grid impact

4 Resource Viet Nam has a large onshore wind resource, which requires much

less land use than solar energy There is currently around 4 GW of onshore wind power installed The summary of green energy (Except biomass) and large pumped hydro storage potentials Small hydro is defined to be no larger than 30 MW and is mostly run-of- river (RoR) where large- and medium-scale hydro is larger than 30

MW and mostly connected to a reservoir

Technology 1 Green energy technology

Vietnam is very close to having nuclear technology with the Memorandum of Understanding on the roadmap for the implementation of the Nuclear Science and Technology Center Project in the territory of Vietnam between the Ministry of Science and Technology and Rosatom Atomic Energy Group

2 Energy efficiency technology With the Building Management System (BMS) Vietnam can automate and optimize the management of heating, ventilation, air conditioning, lighting,etc

Legal

The legal environment in Vietnam is the most supportive factor for

the renewable energy industry There are supportive policies and incentive designs to promote green energy such as Feed-in Tariffs (FiTs), which guarantee a fixed payment rate for energy generated from renewable sources over a specific period Besides, renewable energy projects need to take licensing steps including investment licensing, building permits, and operating permits This process can include checks and approvals from various authorities that need to spend lot of time

4 Rank & Rage

Relevancy

The renewable energy industry belongs

to the government, any changes in the industry are made directly by the government

The economy in the country can highly affect the industry, especially with the industry that sticks with the government If the financial situation can not attract investment, there is not enough budget to develop the industry

or pay for the employee salary, etc

To produce renewable energy it is very essential to rely on the environment, it needs a large installation space that is

not shaded by trees, buildings, or mountains Furthermore, with energy

like Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) which is only found in a specific place requires much geological exploration

Technology is central to the evolution

of the energy industry, driving advancements in renewable energy,

storage solutions, smart grids, and

efficiency improvements These

Immediacy Uncertainly

technological innovations are crucial for addressing energy challenges, reducing environmental impacts, and transitioning to a more sustainable energy future

Legal factors are integral to the energy industry, shaping its operation, growth, and sustainability From regulatory compliance and environmental protection to financial incentives and international agreements, the legal landscape influences every aspect of

Vietnam continues to pursue its goal of achieving net zero emissions

by 2050 at a fairly steady pace Green energy transition policies are being implemented gradually and cautiously The country has steadily increased the share of renewable energy in its energy mix but still relies

on fossil fuels to ensure energy security Renewable energy projects, such as wind and solar power, are being implemented with the support Gradual progress of foreign investment and advanced technology This scenario predicts

that Vietnam will achieve its net zero emissions target, but will face

significant challenges related to finance and infrastructure development In addition, the need to deploy green energy quickly must

be balanced with the realities of current energy demand and economic

constraints, which may slow the transition but ultimately maintain

progress

By 2050, Vietnam is on track to achieve net zero emissions, becoming one of the leading countries in renewable energy The government has implemented policies effectively, successfully attracting domestic and foreign investment Advanced technology is increasingly developed and widely applied, helping to significantly reduce production costs and improve the efficiency of green energy projects, promoting sustainable economic growth, and creating millions of new jobs in the thriving green economy Moreover, Vietnam's leading position in the field of renewable energy supports innovation in many fields, making the country a model for other countries in the region and strengthening its global position in the fight against climate change