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Tiêu đề The Financial Situation and Performance Analysis of Four Vietnamese Banks: LPBank, TPBank, Seabank and VIBank
Tác giả Le Thuy Trang
Người hướng dẫn Prof. Dr. Tran Manh Ha
Trường học University of West of England
Chuyên ngành Finance
Thể loại dissertation
Năm xuất bản 2023
Thành phố UK
Định dạng
Số trang 66
Dung lượng 2,18 MB

Cấu trúc

  • 1. CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION (10)
    • 1.1. An overview on banking industry (10)
    • 1.2. Area of the study (10)
    • 1.3. Study objectives (11)
    • 1.4. Methods of the study (11)
    • 1.5. Organisation of the dissertation (12)
  • 2. CHAPTER 2: MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS (13)
    • 2.1. Political (13)
    • 2.2. Economic (13)
      • 2.2.1. Monetary Policy (13)
      • 2.2.2. Fiscal Policy (13)
      • 2.2.3. Vietnamese regulation (14)
      • 2.2.4. GDP Growth (14)
      • 2.2.5. Exchange rates (15)
      • 2.2.6. Inflation (16)
    • 2.3. Social (16)
      • 2.3.1. Demographics (16)
      • 2.3.2. Cultural lifestyles (17)
    • 2.4. Technology and Innovation (17)
      • 2.4.1. Technology (17)
      • 2.4.2. Innovation (17)
  • 3. CHAPTER 3: INDUSTRY ANALYSIS (19)
    • 3.1. Banking Industry Performance (19)
    • 3.2. Porter's five forces (20)
      • 3.2.1. Bargaining power of suppliers (20)
      • 3.2.2. Bargaining power of Buyers (20)
      • 3.2.3. Threat of new entrants (21)
      • 3.2.4. Threat of substitutes (21)
      • 3.2.5. Industry Rivalry (21)
  • 4. CHAPTER 4: LPBANK (22)
    • 4.1. Business Description (23)
    • 4.2. Shareholder structure (23)
    • 4.3. Business Strategy and plan (23)
      • 4.3.1. Business Strategy (23)
      • 4.3.2. Business Plan (23)
    • 4.4. SWOT Analysis (24)
      • 4.4.1. Strengths (24)
      • 4.4.2. Weaknesses (24)
      • 4.4.3. Opportunities (24)
      • 4.4.4. Threats (24)
    • 4.5. Financial Statement Analysis (24)
      • 4.5.1. Revenue & Profit (24)
      • 4.5.2. Balance sheet (25)
    • 4.6. Financial ratios (28)
    • 4.7. Risk (29)
      • 4.7.1. Credit risk (29)
      • 4.7.2. Payment risk (29)
      • 4.7.3. Interest rate risk (30)
      • 4.7.4. Foreign currency risk (30)
      • 4.7.5. Operational risk (30)
    • 4.8. Company Valuation (30)
    • 4.9. Recommendation (30)
  • 5. CHAPTER 5: TPBANK (31)
    • 5.1. Business Description (31)
    • 5.2. Shareholder structure (32)
    • 5.3. Business Strategy and plan (33)
      • 5.3.1. Business Strategy (33)
      • 5.3.2. Business Plan (33)
    • 5.4. SWOT Analysis (33)
      • 5.4.1. Strengths (33)
      • 5.4.2. Weaknesses (33)
      • 5.4.3. Opportunities (34)
      • 5.4.4. Threats (34)
    • 5.5. Financial Statement Analysis (34)
      • 5.5.1. Revenue & Profit (34)
      • 5.5.2. Balance sheet (35)
    • 5.6. Financial ratios (38)
    • 5.7. Risk (39)
      • 5.7.1. Credit risk (39)
      • 5.7.2. Capital securities risk (39)
      • 5.7.3. Liquidity risk (39)
      • 5.7.4. Interest rate risk (40)
      • 5.7.5. Foreign currency risk (40)
      • 5.7.6. Operational risk (40)
    • 5.8. Company Valuation (40)
    • 5.9. Recommendation (40)
  • 6. CHAPTER 6: SEABANK (41)
    • 6.1. Business Description (42)
    • 6.2. Shareholder structure (42)
    • 6.3. Business Strategy and plan (42)
      • 6.3.1. Business Strategy (42)
      • 6.3.2. Business Plan (43)
    • 6.4. SWOT Analysis (43)
      • 6.4.1. Strengths (43)
      • 6.4.2. Weaknesses (43)
      • 6.4.3. Opportunities (43)
      • 6.4.4. Threats (44)
    • 6.5. Financial Statement Analysis (44)
      • 6.5.1. Revenue & Profit (44)
      • 6.5.2. Balance sheet (45)
    • 6.6. Financial ratios (48)
    • 6.7. Risk (49)
      • 6.7.1. Credit risk (49)
      • 6.7.2. Capital securities risk (49)
      • 6.7.3. Liquidity risk (49)
      • 6.7.4. Interest rate risk (49)
      • 6.7.5. Foreign currency risk (49)
  • 7. CHAPTER 7: VIBANK (50)
    • 7.1. Business Description (51)
    • 7.2. Shareholder structure (51)
    • 7.3. Business Strategy and plan (51)
      • 7.3.1. Business Strategy (51)
      • 7.3.2. Business Plan (51)
    • 7.4. SWOT Analysis (52)
      • 7.4.1. Strengths (52)
      • 7.4.2. Weaknesses (52)
      • 7.4.3. Opportunities (52)
      • 7.4.4. Threats (52)
    • 7.5. Financial Statement Analysis (52)
      • 7.5.1. Revenue & Profit (52)
      • 7.5.2. Balance sheet (53)
    • 7.6. Financial ratios (57)
    • 7.7. Risk (58)
      • 7.7.1. Credit risk (58)
      • 7.7.2. Liquidity risk (58)
      • 7.7.3. Interest rate risk (58)
      • 7.7.4. Operational risk (58)
    • 7.8. Company Valuation (58)
    • 7.9. Recommendation (0)
  • 8. CHAPTER 8: CONCLUSION (59)
  • 9. REFERENCES (60)
  • Chart 1: GDP Growth (14)
  • Chart 2: Exchange rates – VND/USD (15)
  • Chart 3: Vietnamese Inflation (0)
  • Chart 4: Lending market shares (19)
  • Chart 5: Deposits market shares (19)
  • Appendix 1: Industry average P/E and P/B rate (62)
  • Appendix 2.1: LPB’s share valuation using the multiple price methods (63)
  • Appendix 2.2: LPB’s share valuation using the residual income valuation methods (63)
  • Appendix 3.1: TPB’s share valuation using the multiple price methods (64)
  • Appendix 3.2: TPB’s share valuation using the residual income valuation methods (64)
  • Appendix 4.1: SSB’s share valuation using the multiple price methods (65)
  • Appendix 4.2: SSB’s share valuation using the residual income valuation methods (65)
  • Appendix 5.1: VIB’s share valuation using the multiple price methods (66)
  • Appendix 5.2: VIB’s share valuation using the residual income valuation methods (66)

Nội dung

Secondly, I would like to thank my colleagues at Lien Viet Post Commercial Joint Stock Bank for supporting me in the research and analysis process.. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The dissertation fo

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION

An overview on banking industry

The complex global political and economic landscape has significantly affected the Vietnamese economy, with rising inflation and recession leading to increased operating rates by central banks and tighter monetary policies Rapid fluctuations in exchange rates have diminished purchasing power, while geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and US-China disagreements, have driven up raw material prices and disrupted supply chains Additionally, domestic economic challenges, including bond issuance violations and stock price manipulation, have prompted the government to implement new regulations aimed at stabilizing the economy.

The banking industry plays a crucial role in supporting and regulating the economy by assisting the State Bank in implementing monetary policies It serves as the primary channel for capital in production and business, significantly contributing to the national GDP In 2022, financial, banking, and insurance activities accounted for 4.76% of Vietnam's GDP, highlighting the sector's importance to the country's economic health (General Statistics Office of Vietnam, 2022).

Vietnam's banking sector is comprised of four state-owned commercial banks, 31 joint-stock banks, nine wholly foreign-owned banks, two joint-venture banks, two policy banks, and one cooperative bank, along with 48 foreign bank branches operating in the country (Austrade, 2020) The state-owned banks play a crucial role in guiding interest rates and providing liquidity support to smaller banks during challenging trading periods Amidst these difficulties, medium-sized banks such as LPBank, TPBank, Seabank, and VIBank are implementing various strategies to sustain their operations This dissertation will analyze the activities of these four banks in the current economic climate.

Area of the study

This dissertation analyzes the performance of banks with identical total asset sizes but varying profit levels over the past five years By examining different business strategies employed by these banks, the study reveals distinct outcomes for each institution This analysis aims to identify optimal operating models and strategies suitable for banks at various economic stages Additionally, the research includes a bank valuation assessment to determine which banks may be overvalued or undervalued in the current market.

Study objectives

This dissertation provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomics in Vietnam and its impact on the banking industry It highlights the current challenges faced by the banking sector amid a struggling economy, emphasizing the significant efforts required by banks to sustain operations and ensure their survival.

This article evaluates the performance of four medium-sized commercial banks in Vietnam amid a volatile economic landscape It analyzes asset size and quality, focusing on key business activities and overall profitability Additionally, the article examines each bank's strengths, weaknesses, and associated risks, highlighting the strategies employed by management to address these challenges effectively.

Last but not least, the dissertation evaluates the intrinsic value of each bank by some common valuation methods used to value financial institutions, thereby making appropriate investment recommendations.

Methods of the study

This dissertation employs top-down analysis methods to evaluate the performance of individual banks, beginning with an examination of macroeconomic factors affecting the banking industry It then explores how the banking sector influences each bank's performance, followed by a detailed assessment of specific performance evaluation criteria for the banks.

This essay conducts a macroeconomic analysis using the PEST model, focusing on key aspects such as political factors, social demographics and lifestyle trends, technological advancements, and macroeconomic indicators including GDP, exchange rates, inflation, and the policies of the Vietnamese government and State Bank.

Regarding industry analysis, Porter's five forces model is used to analyze the impact of factors on the banking industry

This article analyzes the bank's business activities using the SWOT model, drawing data from publicly audited financial statements and reputable Vietnamese financial information websites like Vietstock and CafeF.

To evaluate banks and provide sound investment recommendations, we utilize the Residential Income and Price Multiple methods The Residential Income method is ideal for businesses that do not distribute cash dividends, serving as an effective alternative to the Dividend Discount Model In contrast, the Price Multiple method is well-suited for businesses with numerous highly liquid assets, such as banks Consequently, these two valuation methods are appropriate for assessing the four banks discussed.

Organisation of the dissertation

This dissertation comprises eight chapters, beginning with an overview that outlines its purpose, methodology, and scope Chapter 2 delves into the analysis of the Vietnamese macroeconomy, while Chapter 3 reviews the performance of Vietnam's banking industry over the past five years The subsequent four chapters conduct an in-depth analysis of four selected banks, aimed at research evaluation and investment decision-making The final chapter presents a comprehensive evaluation of the entire dissertation.

CHAPTER 2: MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Political

The Covid-19 pandemic, US-China strategic competition, and the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict have led to rapid, complex, and unpredictable changes in the global landscape, as noted by Associate Professor Dr Thai Van Long (2023).

As the world gradually returns to normalcy following the Covid-19 pandemic, many countries are lifting lockdowns and travel restrictions In line with this trend, China has also started to ease its epidemic prevention measures in preparation for reopening.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has unexpectedly disrupted global peace, stability, and security, impacting not only Europe but the entire world This crisis has led to rising food and energy prices, as Russia curtailed supplies to Europe in response to sanctions Additionally, tensions between the US and China regarding Taiwan have escalated, prompting the US to advocate for competition without conflict and the importance of maintaining open communication Meanwhile, China is rapidly enhancing its military capabilities, while the US is bolstering defense partnerships in the region to strengthen allied nations.

Economic

In 2022 and early 2023, the global financial market faced significant challenges due to a sharp increase in inflation, prompting central banks to implement stricter monetary policies to ensure financial stability In the United States, the Federal Reserve responded by raising interest rates multiple times over the past year to combat rising inflation effectively.

The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has adeptly implemented monetary policies to navigate challenging economic conditions In response to high inflation, the SBV utilized open market operations to withdraw liquidity and raised operating interest rates to maintain elevated interest levels However, in April 2023, the SBV shifted its approach by initiating interest rate cuts to stimulate economic growth As the economy began to stabilize mid-2023, the SBV further reduced operating interest rates while injecting liquidity through the maturity of State Treasury deposits at the major state-owned banks Currently, interest rates are sustained at low levels, comparable to those during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.

The State's tax exemption policy has effectively fostered the growth of production and business, leading to increased demand for goods and services and subsequently boosting state revenue Additionally, the Ministry of Finance has advanced the national and ASEAN single-window mechanism and developed an automatic customs clearance system, which reduces costs for individuals and businesses Furthermore, the State has intensified revenue management by rigorously inspecting and addressing cases of tax evasion and commercial fraud In a significant development, the Ministry of Finance launched a cross-border e-portal in 2022, resulting in 42 foreign suppliers declaring and paying taxes, totaling VND 3.44 trillion (baochinhphu.vn, 2023).

In recent years, the Vietnamese government has implemented flexible policies to safeguard the economy, notably responding to global inflation by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) increasing operating interest rates three times to combat rising prices.

The Ministry of Finance has introduced several policies to amend and tighten corporate bond issuance in response to scandals involving non-transparent bonds in Vietnam While these policies aim to cleanse the bond market, unclear guidance on their initial implementation has led businesses and banks to postpone capital raising through bond issuance.

A policy has been implemented to adjust the short-term capital ratio for medium and long-term loans, with a roadmap established in 2020 to gradually lower this ratio to 30% by October 2023 This adjustment aims to reduce credit risk by encouraging banks to limit their reliance on short-term deposits for funding medium and long-term loans.

In 2022, Vietnam's economy experienced a robust growth of 8.02%, marking the strongest increase in recent years, largely attributed to the low comparison base from the heavily impacted 2021 due to Covid-19 This impressive GDP growth was driven by a significant rise in domestic consumption, exports, and foreign direct investment (FDI) disbursement Notably, total retail sales of consumer goods and services surged by 19.8% compared to 2021, with a 15.6% increase when adjusted for price factors (VnExpress, 2022) Additionally, Vietnam's exports benefited from the economic recovery of its key trading partners, while the continued influx of FDI highlighted the country's attractiveness for foreign investment.

Chart 2: Exchange rates – VND/USD

Table 3: Exchange rates – VND/USD

The recent increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve has led to a significant rise in the value of the dollar in global financial markets Concurrently, the VND/USD exchange rate faces pressure from heightened demand for foreign currencies Additionally, the trade deficit remains substantial, primarily driven by a surge in import activities.

When the US raises interest rates, capital is likely to flow from emerging markets to USD-denominated assets, leading to heightened demand for the US dollar and resulting in the depreciation of other currencies.

In 2022, despite the dollar experiencing significant growth, bank-listed prices remained below the established ceiling This situation arose because the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) intervened by selling substantial amounts of foreign currency to stabilize the rising exchange rate.

From 2016 to 2020, Vietnam maintained a stable inflation rate of 2.7% to 3.5% due to strict economic regulations (baochinhphu.vn, 2022) In 2021, despite challenges posed by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and global supply chain disruptions from the Covid-19 pandemic, Vietnam successfully controlled its inflation, recording a rate of just 1.84% This positioned Vietnam as a notable exception to the worldwide trend of rising inflation However, in 2022, the inflation rate rose to 3.21%.

High inflation continues to exert significant pressure on the prices of strategic materials and supplies, driven by a global upward price trend The costs of transportation, logistics, and raw materials have surged due to disruptions in the supply chain However, inflationary pressures are somewhat alleviated by measures such as tax and fee exemptions, along with a plentiful supply of consumer goods available in the market.

Social

Vietnam's rapidly growing population is set to make the labor force the majority demographic, driving economic development while simultaneously exerting pressure on essential sectors such as health, education, and employment.

17 development means that the demand for banking services will increase This can be seen as a positive point for the banking industry

According to the United Nations' 2004 projections, the country's population is expected to peak at 130-140 million by 2050, resulting in a significantly aging population This demographic shift poses significant long-term challenges for the economy as a whole, with the banking industry being particularly vulnerable to the potential consequences of an aging population.

The younger population is increasingly shifting away from traditional cash payments, opting instead for card transactions and QR code payments This trend presents significant development opportunities for banks, which should prioritize enhancing their digital technology to facilitate convenient transactions without the need for in-person visits Additionally, Vietnamese consumers are showing a preference for credit cards over debit cards, attracted by benefits such as refunds, interest-free periods, and exclusive vouchers In response, many banks are expanding their range of credit card products to capture a larger customer base.

Technology and Innovation

Successfully digitising, many banks have risen to the top in a short time such as TPBank,

In recent times, banks such as MB, VIB, OCB, and Techcombank have actively pursued digital transformation initiatives As these banks enhance their digital capabilities, consumers are increasingly inclined to adopt non-cash payment methods This shift facilitates the digital execution of commercial activities, including purchasing, product promotion, and service delivery According to the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), significant growth has been observed in these digital transactions.

In the first half of 2022, non-cash payment transactions surged by 77.2% in quantity and 29.8% in value compared to the same period in 2021 Notably, internet transactions rose by 63.2% in quantity and 32.3% in value, while mobile transactions experienced a remarkable increase of 98.3% in quantity and 84.3% in value Additionally, QR code payments saw substantial growth, with a 86% increase in quantity and a striking 127% increase in value (Vnbusiness, 2022).

To remain competitive in a rapidly evolving market, banks must prioritize innovation across various sectors This includes enhancing product offerings by diversifying deposit and loan products based on maturity, interest rates, and repayment methods Additionally, introducing innovative card solutions, such as non-physical and hybrid cards, can help banks cater to a broader range of customer needs, ultimately aiding in customer retention and attraction.

To enhance operational efficiency, banks must prioritize process innovation by streamlining internal operations and expediting customer service delivery Additionally, they should adopt and continually evolve new marketing strategies to effectively attract and retain customers.

CHAPTER 3: INDUSTRY ANALYSIS

Banking Industry Performance

Between 2017 and 2023, the banking industry in Vietnam experienced significant fluctuations due to global economic and political events, as well as inflationary pressures From 2017 to 2021, the banking sector saw a sharp increase in profits, with net interest margins (NIM) reaching historic highs in 2021 and early 2022 However, these margins faced downward pressure in the latter half of 2022 as the State Bank of Vietnam raised operating interest rates The growth rate slowed in 2022 due to credit growth limits, rising interest rates, and increasing bad debts, with many banks hitting their credit growth ceilings since mid-2022 Credit activities are now tightly controlled, focusing on efficient capital allocation Meanwhile, rising interest rates and liquidity challenges hinder small banks from attracting savings deposits Although commercial joint-stock banks have expanded their credit and profit scales rapidly, state-owned banks continue to dominate the lending and deposit markets in Vietnam.

Source: Financial statements 2022 of banks

The banking industry faces significant challenges in 2023, as highlighted by Hoang Lan High interest rates, particularly for deposit mobilization, are pressuring net interest margins (NIM) and affecting investment income due to rising government bond yields Additionally, the real estate market, which constitutes about 20% of total credit, is struggling, leading to increased pressure on lending and creating liquidity issues The cost of provisioning for credit risks is also on the rise, as many real estate loans are at risk of becoming bad debts if credit continues to tighten Furthermore, the corporate bond sector is experiencing increased bad debt risks, exacerbated by high interest rates and legal challenges facing numerous projects, which negatively impacts the outlook for the real estate industry and contributes to defaults on bond obligations.

Porter's five forces

High supplier pressure significantly impacts a bank's liquidity and operations, primarily stemming from the challenge of raising capital at low costs Banks rely on diverse funding sources, including customer deposits, interbank market deposits, state bank loans, and debt or capital securities However, selecting cost-effective input sources remains a critical issue for bank managers This pressure intensifies during periods of tight liquidity, forcing banks to resort to high-cost mobilization from all available sources to maintain operational liquidity.

Moderate pressure exists for banks to identify profitable output sources for their funds This pressure is manageable, as banks can strategically select the most effective avenues for maximizing profit For instance, if lending becomes challenging due to high interest rates or limited credit availability, banks can pivot to investing in bonds or lending to other financial institutions Regardless of market conditions, banks can always find suitable and effective sources for their capital.

In Vietnam, the pressure to establish new banks is minimal due to the complex procedures involved Following the rapid rise of commercial banks in 2008, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has tightened the criteria for bank establishment, resulting in no new joint stock commercial banks being created since then.

The competitive pressure from substitute products in the banking sector is relatively low, as bank offerings typically show minimal differentiation Variations in service fees, incentives, features, terms, and targeted customer segments exist, but overall, the competition remains mild Customers' choices largely hinge on their individual risk appetites, influencing their selection of banking products.

The competitive landscape for banks is intense, with pressure stemming from various fronts such as credit activities, capital mobilization, and trading operations Despite offering similar products and services, banks continuously strive to innovate and enhance their offerings to attract more customers for deposits and loans Key competitive factors include interest rates and bank reputation for loans and deposits, while service fees and incentives play a crucial role in service-related competition Additionally, banks engage in the interbank market to trade currencies, securities, and foreign currencies, where competition remains fierce, resulting in a dynamic environment with clear winners and losers.

CHAPTER 4: LPBANK

Business Description

Lien Viet Post Commercial Joint Stock Bank (LPB) has established a strong reputation over its 15 years of operation, building trust with customers The year 2022 marked a successful period for the bank in terms of both scale and quality As of June 30, 2023, LPBank's charter capital reached VND 17,291 billion, supported by a robust network that includes 1 head office, 3 representative offices, 80 branches, 481 transaction offices, and 581 post office transaction offices.

Shareholder structure

No Name of shareholder Ownership rate

2 Nguyen Duc Thuy - Chairman of the Board of Directors of LPBank 2.76%

VNPost is the largest shareholder of LPB, holding 8.13% of the shares, followed by Chairman Nguyen Duc Thuy, who owns 2.76% with 47.8 million shares State ownership stands at 9.86%, while foreign ownership is at 4.86% Earlier this year, VNPost attempted to divest its shares in LPB through an auction with a starting price of VND 22,908, but the effort was unsuccessful due to the high price relative to the current market value.

Business Strategy and plan

LPB's strategy for the upcoming years centers on four key objectives: enhancing retail development by leveraging its extensive network, advancing digital transformation to elevate customer service quality, boosting revenue through non-credit activities like insurance and consulting, and prioritizing bad debt recovery with the principle that recovering capital is more crucial than generating profit.

Criteria Results for 2022 Target for 2023 %Target for 2023/Results for 2022

In its 2023 plan, LPB aims to boost its charter capital by 19% through the issuance of 328.5 million shares for dividend payments The bank anticipates a 17.8% growth in deposits and a 16% increase in credit Additionally, LPB projects total assets to rise to VND 375,000 billion, marking a 14.4% increase, with profits expected to reach VND 6,000 billion, reflecting a 5.45% growth compared to the previous year.

SWOT Analysis

- The first bank follows the model of Bank – Post Office linkage

- Having a network and branch system across 63 provinces and cities in Vietnam

- Service fee is cheaper than other banks

- New technologies have not been applied yet Data aggregation and storage are mainly paperwork; the core banking system has not been completed

- Young staff and high turnover rate

- Opportunity to expand the customer base and develop the retail segment due to the large size of the transaction office

- VNPost divestment may change the existing model of Bank – Post Office, which will take time for the bank to adjust

- Change of leadership makes LPB take time to readjust the organizational structure and stabilize personnel

Financial Statement Analysis

1 Net interest income/Total operating income 89.74% 86.24% 87.43%

2 Net service income/Total operating income 8.53% 12.04% 7.12%

3 Net foreign exchange/Total operating income 1.37% 0.07% 4.54%

4 Net income from trading securities and investment securities/Total operating income 0.03% 2.48% 1.26%

5 Income from buying and selling other long-term investments/Total operating income 0.00% 0.38% 0.00%

6 Other income/Total operating income 0.33% 1.46% -0.35%

7 Operating expenses/Total operating income 50.66% 38.46% 42.36%

9 Provision expense for credit risks (VND billion) 1,322 3,173 234

10 Profit after tax (billion VND) 2,873 4,510 1,243

In 2022, LPB achieved impressive business results, with earnings before tax (EBT) soaring by 56% to VND 5,689 billion The total operating income rose by 37.31% to VND 13,797 billion, driven primarily by a 31.96% increase in net interest income, which accounted for 86.24% of total income, reaching VND 11,899 billion Additionally, net service income surged by 93.82% to VND 1,661 billion, representing 12.04% of the total While operating expenses saw a modest increase of 4.24%, the provision for credit risk expenses rose significantly by 140%, totaling VND 4,510 billion.

In the first quarter of 2023, EBT fell by 12.8% year-over-year to VND 1,565 billion, primarily due to a 3.51% decline in net interest income, which constituted 87.43% of total income, totaling VND 2,774 billion Conversely, net service income, making up 7.12%, rose by 15.21% to VND 318 billion Operating expenses surged by 16.56% to VND 1,344 billion, while provisions for credit risk saw a significant decrease of 28.29%, amounting to VND 223 billion.

Table 4.3: LPB - Asset, Liabilities and Equity

Criteria Value (billion VND) % Total assets

Criteria Value (billion VND) % Total assets

Money deposited at and lent to other financial institutions 22,438 31,967 31,948 7.76% 9.75% 9.47%

Derivatives and other financial assets 84 0 360 0.03% 0.00% 0.11%

TOTAL ASSETS 289,193 327,745 337,196 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% Debts to the Government and the SBV 1,702 3,076 765 0.59% 0.94% 0.23%

Deposits and loans from other financial institutions 46,281 39,660 26,405 16.00% 12.10% 7.83% Customer's deposit 180,276 215,888 227,283 62.34% 65.87% 67.40% Derivatives and other financial assets 0 42 0 0.00% 0.01% 0.00%

Funds of financial institutions and other capital 2,183 2,860 2,860 0.75% 0.87% 0.85%

By the end of 2022, LPB's total assets amounted to VND 327,745 billion, reflecting a 13.33% increase from the previous year In the first quarter of 2023, total assets rose to VND 337,196 billion, marking a 2.88% growth Loans to customers represented the largest share at 70.64%, followed by investment securities at 14.36% The primary drivers behind the asset growth were significant increases in money-making activities, loans to other financial institutions, customer loans, investment securities, and receivables.

In 2022, LPB enhanced its charter capital through three key methods: issuing 225.5 million shares for a 15% dividend from the undistributed after-tax profit of 2021, conducting a private placement of nearly 96 million shares to foreign investors with a maximum foreign ownership limit of 9.99%, and distributing 300 million shares to existing shareholders at a rate of 16.44%.

Table 4.4: LPB - Customer deposit mobilization

Customer deposits have shown significant growth, reaching VND 215,888 billion in 2022, which marks a 20.91% increase from 2021 The positive trend continued into Q1 2023, with LPB achieving a 3.81% rise in deposits compared to the previous year.

Table 4.5: LPB - Loans to customers

Loans to customers (billion VND) 208,954 235,507 12.79% 253,392 7.59%

LPBank has demonstrated consistent credit growth, achieving a rate of 12.79% in 2022 In the first quarter of 2023, credit growth continued positively at 7.59%, totaling VND 253,392 billion Despite this progress, LPBank's average credit growth rate in 2022 was below the industry average of 15.4%.

Government Bonds and Government Guaranteed Bonds 25,003 27,915 29,679

Debt securities issued by domestic financial institutions 13,196 14,091 18,740

Debt securities issued by domestic corporate institutions 75,800 0 0

The debt securities portfolio of LPB experienced significant growth, increasing by 9.97% in 2022 to reach VND 42,007 billion, and further rising by 15.26% in Q1 2023 to VND 48,419 billion This growth was driven by a substantial rise in government bonds, which increased by 11.65% in 2022 and 6.32% in Q1 2023, totaling VND 26,679 billion Additionally, bonds from financial institutions saw a 6.78% increase in 2022 and a remarkable 33% increase in Q1 2023, reaching VND 18,740 billion Notably, LPB ceased trading corporate bonds in 2022 due to tightened regulations from the SBV.

Table 4.7: LPB - Transactions with other financial institutions

1 Deposits and loans to other financial institutions (VND billion) 22,438 31,967 31,948

Receiving deposits and borrowing from other financial institutions (VND billion)

Interbank net deposit/Total debt -8.75% -2.53% 1.67%

In 2022, deposits and loans to other financial institutions surged by 42.47%, totaling VND 31,967 billion, but saw a slight decline of 0.06% to VND 31,948 billion in Q1 2023 Conversely, the reception of deposits and borrowing from other financial institutions dropped by 14.31% to VND 39,660 billion in 2022, followed by a significant decline of 33.42% to VND 26,405 billion in Q1 2023 This shift transformed LPB from a borrower to a lender in the interbank market during Q1 2023, indicating a reduced reliance on interbank transactions.

In 2022, LPB borrowed VND 7,693 billion, accounting for 2.53% of its total outstanding loans By Q1 2023, LPB had lent VND 5,543 billion in the interbank market Despite the low interest rates in the interbank market at the start of 2023, LPB has not fully capitalized on the opportunity to access inexpensive funding.

Financial ratios

2 The ratio of short-term funds for medium and 29.38% 29.83% 33.19%

3 The ratio of highly liquid assets to total liabilities 11.54% 16.00% 12.79%

4 The loan to deposit (LDR) 79.99% 80.88% 81.20%

As of March 30, 2023, LPB's Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) stood at 11.16%, a decrease from 12.36% at the end of 2022 and slightly up from 11.26% in 2021, positioning it at an average level among similarly sized commercial banks The proportion of short-term funds allocated for medium and long-term loans rose significantly from 29.83% at the end of 2022 to 33.19% in Q1 2023, necessitating an adjustment before the regulatory threshold drops below 30% in October 2023 Additionally, LPB has consistently maintained a strong ratio of highly liquid assets to total liabilities.

As of Q1 2023, the Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (LDR) has risen to 81.2%, up from 80.88% at the end of 2022, indicating a consistent upward trend over the years However, the bank is facing challenges with an increasing bad debt ratio, which sharply escalated to 2.23% in the first quarter of 2023, prompting an alert regarding potential risks associated with bad debts.

About profitability ratios, the business performance indicators in 2022 tended to increase compared to 2021, with ROA 1.46%; ROE 22.08%; NIM 3.50% Business performance indicators in 2023 are ROA 0.37%; ROE 5.04%; NIM 3.40%

About investor-related ratios, EPS increased sharply in 2022, from 2,543 to 3,291 (up 29.41%), but decreased slightly at the beginning of 2023, to only 2,853 P/E halved in 2022, from 8.76 to 4.07 but improved in early 2023 (reaching 5.4)

Risk

Bad debt has increased sharply year by year and has not shown any positive signs This bank is actively implementing a series of strategies to promote bad debt recovery

Customer deposit mobilization has seen significant growth, with deposits consistently exceeding the demand for customer loans Despite this, the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) remains elevated at approximately 80-81%, surpassing the State Bank of Vietnam's (SBV) regulatory limits Additionally, the proportion of short-term funds allocated for medium and long-term loans is notably high and requires adjustment ahead of the impending regulation that will lower this threshold to below 30% by October 2023.

LPB is increasingly utilizing customer deposits to finance investments and loans in the interbank market, as customer deposit rates surpass those offered in the interbank market.

LPB relies heavily on foreign currency loans in the interbank market and mainly in USD

Changing senior leadership makes LPB take a long time to stabilize the personnel apparatus

Company Valuation

To value LPB, we use the Price Multiple method and the Residual income valuation method

Using Price Multiple methods, the selected multiples for calculation are the P/E and P/B ratios, with industry averages of 7.32 and 1.23, respectively (see Appendix 1) By applying these average multiples to LPB and considering the outstanding shares of 1,729,105,369, the expected share price is VND 18,604 (detailed calculations in Appendix 2.1).

The Residual Income Valuation Method estimates the price of LPB shares by determining the present value of residual income, factoring in a stable annual growth rate of 3% and a cost of capital of 13.70%, as derived from the CAPM model (for detailed calculations, refer to Appendix 2.2).

We get the expected price of VND 16,801/share

Recommendation

LPB is currently priced at VND 15,400, with a target price set at VND 16,801 per share, indicating a potential upward trend in the near future Given these factors, LPB stock is viewed positively, and a BUY recommendation is advised for investors.

CHAPTER 5: TPBANK

Business Description

Tien Phong Commercial Joint Stock Bank (TPB), established in 2008, has rapidly grown over its 14 years of operation, now boasting 1 representative office, 53 branches, and 71 transaction offices, with a charter capital of VND 15,818 billion as of March 31, 2023 Despite facing significant challenges in 2011, when it was classified among weak banks due to high bad debts and accumulated losses, TPB successfully underwent restructuring after receiving capital support from Doji Group, leading to its swift development and stabilization within the banking system.

TPB demonstrates a strong growth rate and favorable financial ratios relative to its peers in the commercial banking sector However, its aggressive risk appetite is evident as it frequently borrows from the interbank market to capitalize on low capital costs, which facilitates its investment in long-term assets.

Shareholder structure

On 31/03/2023, information about the Bank's main shareholders is as follow:

No Name of shareholder Ownership rate

2 DOJI Jewelry Group Joint Stock Company 5.93%

3 SBI Ven Holdings Pte Ltd 4.51%

4 Vietnam National Reinsurance Corporation (Vinare) 4.01%

5 Mr Do Minh Phu and related people 4.91%

6 Mr Do Anh Tu and related people 10.21%

7 Ms Nguyen Thi Thu Nguyet and related people 15.49%

TPB's shareholder structure is notably concentrated, with the top three shareholders—FPT, DOJI, and Vinare—being prominent companies with significant financial strength and leadership in their respective industries Additionally, the International Finance Company (IFC), a member of the World Bank, holds 2.89% of TPB shares and provides advisory support in banking governance, risk management, and capacity building.

TPB has a concentrated shareholder structure primarily among internal stakeholders and related individuals The Chairman of the Board, Mr Do Minh Phu, holds 10.84% of TPB shares, both directly and through DOJI Additionally, Vice Chairman Mr Do Anh Tu and his family collectively own 10.21% of the company's shares.

(Member of the Supervisory Board) owns a total of 15.49% shares of TPB through 04 subsidiaries where she is the Chairman.

Business Strategy and plan

TPB is implementing two key strategies to advance its position in Vietnam's retail banking sector Firstly, the bank is emphasizing retail lending products, which currently have low market penetration in the country Secondly, TPB is leading the way in digital transformation, offering simplified and efficient lending processes that enhance its competitive edge These initiatives are aimed at attracting a younger customer base and increasing deposit mobilization in the near future.

Criteria Results for 2022 Target for 2023 %Target for

The most notable is TPB's plan to increase charter capital by 39% to VND 22,016 billion

In addition, credit is expected to increase by 18%, while deposits are expected to increase by 8% Profit before tax is expected to increase by 11%, equivalent to VND 8,700 billion.

SWOT Analysis

- Shareholders have strong financial potential and good support for the bank's operations

- Apply modern technology to banking services and products

- Bad debt ratio is actually low

- Large dependence on the interbank market and the mobilization from securities causes imbalance in terms of asset term structure

- Potential risks affecting the bank's liquidity when the general market falls into a state of shortage of supply

- Focusing on strongly developing the retail segment helps NIM grow

- TPB has solid premium income from the insurance business

- High competition from the retail loan segment (car loans, home purchases ) when many banks focus on converting to retail instead of wholesale.

Financial Statement Analysis

1 Net interest income/Interest income 57.07% 52.21% 40.76%

2 Net interest income/Total operating income 73.58% 72.91% 74.80%

3 Net service income/Total operating income 11.41% 17.24% 19.01%

4 Net foreign exchange/Total operating income 2.76% 2.63% 4.13%

5 Net income from trading securities and investment securities/Total operating income 10.43% 2.73% 0.94%

6 Income from buying and selling other long- term investments/Total operating income 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

7 Other income/Total operating income 1.82% 4.50% 1.13%

8 Operating expenses/Total operating income 33.81% 38.07% 43.16%

10 Provision expense for credit risks (VND billion) 2,908 1,844 315

11 Profit after tax (billion VND) 4,830 6,261 1,413

TPB is a bank that has always maintained high profit growth TPB's pre-tax profit in 2022 increased by 30% to VND 7,828 billion

TPB's total operating income in 2022 reached VND 15,617 billion, up 15.5% compared to

2021 The bank's profit comes from many sources of revenue Firstly, net interest income accounted for 73% of the bank's profit, up 14.5% to VND 11,387 billion Second, revenue from

In 2021, 35 services, representing 17% of total revenue, experienced remarkable growth of 75%, reaching VND 2,692 billion Additionally, revenue from other activities surged by 185%, although investment securities trading saw a decline of nearly VND 1,000 billion due to adverse market conditions.

Operating expenses in 2022 will increase by 30% to VND 5,945 billion Meanwhile, TPB reduced provision expenses for credit risks by 36% to VND 1,844 billion to boost profit

In Q1 2023, the pre-tax profit reached VND 1,765 billion, reflecting a 9% increase compared to the same period last year This growth was influenced by a 3% decline in net profit, attributed to a 2% rise in interest expenses, totaling VND 4,304 billion, which exceeded interest income due to elevated deposit interest rates at year-end Additionally, while net interest from services and securities increased, operating expenses surged by 28%, and provisions for credit losses saw a decrease of 12%.

Table 5.3: TPB - Asset, Liabilities and Equity

Criteria Value (billion VND) % Total assets

Money, gold deposited and lent to other financial institutions

Derivatives and other financial assets - 203 282 0.00% 0.06% 0.08

Loans to customers 140,423 159,341 170,774 47.95% 48.49% 49.71 Investment securities 62,405 74,377 78,680 21.31% 22.63% 22.9

Debts to the Government and the SBV 564 433 413 0.19% 0.13% 0.12%

Deposits and loans from other financial institutions 87,016 73,496 82,742 29.72% 22.36% 24.09% Customer's deposit 139,562 194,960 200,998 47.66% 59.32% 58.51% Derivatives and other financial assets 78 - - 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%

Criteria Value (billion VND) % Total assets

Funding, investment trust, loans that financial institutions bear risks

Funds of financial institutions and other capital 10,170 16,421 17,845 3.47% 5.00% 5.19%

As of December 31, 2022, TPB's total assets reached VND 328,634 billion, marking a 12% increase from 2021, with a further growth of 4.5% to VND 343,522 billion in the first quarter of 2023 The bank's asset composition includes customer loans at 48.5%, investment securities at 22.6%, and interbank loans at 16%, indicating a strong focus on debt securities and interbank financing Additionally, the capital structure shows an increase in customer deposits from 48% to 59%, while interbank loans decreased from 29% to 22%, and the issuance of debt securities fell from 12% to 6%.

In 2022, TPB aimed to raise its charter capital from VND 15,818 billion to VND 21,142 billion but was unable to achieve this due to unfavorable market conditions For 2023, TPB plans to increase its charter capital to VND 21,016 billion by issuing stock dividends at a rate of 39.19%.

Table 5.4: TPB - Customer deposit mobilization

Customer deposits grew well by 40%, reaching VND 196,960 billion at the end of 2022, continuing to increase 3%, reaching VND 200,998 billion in Q1/2023

TPB's mobilization structure is quite stable with individual customers accounting for about 47% of total deposits CASA's capital, in spite of decreasing from 22% to 17% in 2022, is still at a good level

Table 5.5: TPB - Loans to customers

Loans to customers (billion VND) 142,196 161,175 13.34% 172,869 7.25%

As of 31/12/2022, customer loans increased by 13.35% compared to the end of 2021 to reach VND 161,175 billion and continued to increase by 7.3% to VND 172,869 billion in Q1/2023

Government Bonds and Government Guaranteed Bonds 18,849 24,327 26,202

Debt securities issued by domestic financial institutions 25,129 21,190 31,961

Debt securities issued by domestic corporate institutions 18,621 21,668 20,517

As of the end of 2022, the total debt securities portfolio rose by 7% to VND 67,185 billion, with a further increase of 17% to VND 78,680 billion in Q1 2023 Government bonds represent 36% of this portfolio and 7.4% of total assets However, a significant portion of these government bonds is likely pledged for loans in the interbank market, which may limit their ability to enhance TPB's liquidity in times of risk.

In 2022, TPB was one of eight commercial banks scrutinized for its corporate bond investment activities, which raised concerns due to the significant increase in these investments over the past year, highlighting potential hidden risks.

Table 5.7: TPB - Transactions with other financial institutions

1 Deposits and loans to other financial 48,753 53,365 56,286

No Criteria 2021 2022 Q1.2023 institutions (VND billion)

Receiving deposits and borrowing from other financial institutions (VND billion)

Interbank net deposit/Total debt -14.34% -6.79% -8.54%

In recent years, TPB has maintained strong activities on the interbank market In 2022, TPB's lending side increased by 9.5% to VND 53,365 billion, borrowing side decreased by 15.5% to VND 73,496 billion

As of December 31, 2022, TPB's net borrowing value decreased by 47% from 2021, totaling VND 20,131 billion, which represents 6.79% of its total liabilities While access to inexpensive funds on the interbank market has contributed to strong business performance, this strategy is unsustainable and carries a significant risk of exchange rate fluctuations in a volatile market.

TPB holds a significant demand deposit account with various financial institutions, indicating a strategy to enhance the appearance of its highly liquid assets.

Financial ratios

2 The ratio of short-term funds for medium and long-term loans 23.28% 20.46% 15.94%

3 The ratio of highly liquid assets to total liabilities 28.71% 27.38% 26.17%

4 The loan to deposit (LDR) 58.22% 58.78% 59.41%

TPB's capital adequacy ratio remains robust, surpassing the Basel II requirements The bank has successfully met Basel III standards and is actively advancing its implementation Additionally, TPB is focused on increasing its capital to strengthen its financial position.

In 2023, the support for Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) and liquidity ratios is expected to facilitate the bank's operational expansion By the end of 2022, the CAR stood at 12.6%, while the ratio of short-term funds allocated for medium and long-term loans was 20.46% Additionally, the ratio of highly liquid assets to total liabilities reached 27.38%.

The bank's financial leverage has remained at a relatively safe level for the past 3 years, with the equity/total assets ratio at only 9.8% in Quarter 1/2023

TPB demonstrates strong asset quality control, with a low bad debt ratio of 0.81% in 2021, 0.84% in 2022, and an increase to 1.44% in Q1 2023 The bank maintained a robust NPL coverage ratio of 135% at the end of 2022, indicating a solid capacity to manage credit risks However, as of March 31, 2023, TPB experienced a notable rise in credit risk, with the bad debt ratio climbing to 1.44% and the NPL coverage ratio declining to 84%, reflecting the broader industry's trend of increasing bad debt.

TPB's profitability ratios remained at a good level in the system with ROA of 2.01%; ROE 21.5%; NIM 3.98% in 2022 In Q1/2023, profitability indicators decreased slightly: ROA 1.68%; ROE 17.16%; NIM 3.54%

EPS is stable over the years while P/E has a sharp decrease in 2022 and stays at 5.51 in Q1/2023.

Risk

Bad debt levels are declining and remain lower than the industry average, indicating effective credit management Additionally, the high bad debt coverage ratio reflects a strong capacity to mitigate credit risk.

Equity securities account for a small proportion in the asset structure

Customer deposits grew well in 2022 LDR is only 58.78% (2022), which is a low threshold in the system, showing that mobilized capital from customers has always met the lending demand

TPB regularly maintains a net loan of the interbank market to take advantage of cheap, flexible short-term capital to invest in long term assets in order to optimize profits

Besides, the ratio of short-term funding for medium and long-term loans stayed at a good level compared to the industry average

Interest rate sensitive spreads are mainly in short terms, less than 1 month and from 3 to 6 months

Because banks mobilize foreign currencies from foreign institutions, foreign currency risks are mainly in USD

The shareholder structure has strong financial potential and good support for the bank's operations.

Company Valuation

Using Price Multiple methods, we focus on two key multiples: the P/E and P/B ratios, which have industry averages of 7.32 and 1.23, respectively (see Appendix 1 for details) By applying these average multiples to TPB and considering the outstanding shares of 2,201,635,009, we calculate an expected share price of VND 19,872 (for calculation specifics, refer to Appendix 3.1).

Using the Residual Income Valuation method, we determine the price of TPB shares by calculating the present value of residual income, with an assumed stable annual growth rate of 3% and a cost of capital of 10.60% based on the CAPM model This analysis yields an expected share price of VND 25,120 (for detailed calculations, see Appendix 3.2).

Recommendation

The current market price of TPB is VND 19,600, but two calculation methods reveal a significant discrepancy Given TPB's strong business performance, the suggested target price is VND 19,872, leading to a BUY recommendation for this stock.

CHAPTER 6: SEABANK

Business Description

Southeast Asia Commercial Joint Stock Bank (SSB) is a medium-sized bank within the BRG Group ecosystem, showing strong performance in 2022 with financial indicators surpassing those of similar-sized banks As of August 2, 2023, SSB's charter capital reached VND 20,403 billion, supported by a robust network of 49 branches and 132 transaction offices, employing 5,505 staff members.

SeaBank was upgraded by Moody's to develop SeABank's development prospect from Stable to Positive while maintaining SeABank's credit rating at B1 for the third consecutive year.

Shareholder structure

Information about the Bank's main shareholders:

No Name of shareholder Ownership rate

1 Phu My Investment One Member Co., Ltd 5,22%

2 Individual shareholders related to Ms Nguyen Thi Nga (chairman of

3 Vuong Tien Trading Co., Ltd 3,95%

4 Van Loc Trading Investment and Construction One Member Co., Ltd 3,06%

5 Duc Thinh Trading Investment and Construction One Member Co.,

As of the end of 2021, Phu My Investment One Member Company remains the major shareholder with a 5.22% stake in the bank, alongside various institutional shareholders, though limited information is available about these entities Additionally, individual shareholders associated with Ms Nguyen Thi Nga hold approximately 9.9% of the bank's capital.

SeaBank is currently under the near-total control of Ms Nguyen Thi Nga, the Chairman of BRG Group, which primarily focuses on real estate and boasts significant projects like Legend Hill Golf Resort, King’s Island Golf Course, and Hilton Hanoi Opera Hotel.

Business Strategy and plan

SSB is committed to a sustainable development strategy centered around five key objectives: Risk Management, Technology Investment, Customer Development, and Human Resource Development The company leverages artificial intelligence (AI) in digital banking and employs cloud computing for secure customer data storage In risk management, SSB invests in advanced technology systems to enhance automation and comply with rigorous standards like Basel II and Basel III Additionally, SSB is focused on human resource development by refining salary and bonus structures, implementing capacity measurement frameworks, and creating comprehensive training programs for all employees.

Criteria Results for 2022 Target for 2023 %Target for

In its 2023 plan, SSB targets a 10% growth in total assets, aiming for VND 256,389 billion The bank anticipates a 10.52% increase in customer deposits and a 12.34% rise in customer loans Pre-tax profit is projected to reach VND 5,633 billion, reflecting an 11.13% increase, while maintaining bad debt levels below 3%.

SWOT Analysis

SSB's business activities have grown strongly in profit in the past year Asset quality, capital adequacy ratios, and liquidity have been significantly improved

The bank faces a significant concentrated credit risk, with 70% of its total outstanding loans directed towards economic organizations Furthermore, its reliance on the financial stability of the BRG group, which is closely linked to the bank's management, heightens this risk.

Applying developed technology, SSB has many opportunities to leapfrog in size and business results in the coming time

Young staff and high turnover rate.

Financial Statement Analysis

1 Net interest income/Interest income 43.93% 46.24% 36.59%

2 Net interest income/Total operating income 73.71% 72.62% 79.33%

3 Net service income/Total operating income 16.29% 14.17% 5.24%

4 Net foreign exchange/Total operating income 2.12% 2.32% 1.70%

5 Net income from trading securities and investment securities/Total operating income 5.18% 8.80% 11.73%

6 Income from buying and selling other long-term investments/Total operating income 0.14% 0.08% 0.35%

7 Other income/Total operating income 2.57% 2.00% 1.65%

8 Operating expenses/Total operating income 35.95% 35.28% 36.70%

10 Provision expense for credit risks (VND billion) 1,238 1,175 363

11 Profit after tax (billion VND) 2,607 4,053 854

In 2022, SSB maintained relatively good business performance with EBT increased by 55% to VND 5,069 billion Total operating income reached VND 9,647 billion, up 37% compared to

In 2021, net interest income surged by 35%, totaling VND 7,006 billion, while service revenue, comprising 5% of total income, rose by 19% to VND 1,367 billion Additionally, SSB's foreign exchange trading, securities trading, and investment activities experienced significant growth in 2022 compared to the previous year.

Operating expenses in 2022 increased by 35% to VND 3,404 billion, besides that, SSB slightly reduced provision expenses for credit risks by 5% to VND 1,174 billion

In Q1 2023, EBT totaled VND 1,070 billion, reflecting an 18% decline This downturn was primarily driven by a 15% rise in net interest income to VND 1,796 billion, overshadowed by a more significant increase in interest expenses due to a heightened interest base at year-end Additionally, net profits from services, foreign exchange, and securities experienced declines or recorded losses, further impacting overall performance.

45 expenses increased more than 26% increase in income, only provision expense for credit risk increased by 1.4%

Table 6.3: SSB - Asset, Liabilities and Equity

Criteria Value (billion VND) % Total assets

Money, gold deposited and lent to other financial institutions

Loans to customers 125,807 151,523 156,605 59.44% 65.47% 63.88% Investment securities 16,820 8,647 12,688 7.95% 3.74% 5.18% Capital contribution, long- term investment 85 61 61 0.04% 0.03% 0.03%

Debts to the Government and the SBV 2,173 3,839 2,132 1.03% 1.66% 0.87%

Deposits and loans from other financial institutions 58,366 59,720 68,338 27.57% 25.81% 27.87% Customer's deposit 109,785 115,547 117,695 51.87% 49.93% 48.01% Derivatives and other financial assets 48 15 348 0.02% 0.01% 0.14%

Authorized capital 14,785 20,403 20,403 6.99% 8.82% 8.32% Funds of financial institutions and other capital 3,878 5,829 6,684 1.83% 2.52% 2.73%

SSB is a medium-sized commercial bank with total assets amounting to VND 245,169 billion In 2022, loans to customers constituted 65.47% of the bank's total assets, while this figure decreased slightly to 63.88% in Q1 2023 Additionally, interbank lending plays a significant role in the bank's asset structure.

2023 accounted for 19.47% of total assets; in Q1/2023 accounted for 22.4% of total assets Investment securities in 2022 accounted for 3.74% of total assets; in Q1/2023 accounted for 5.18% of total assets

In 2022, SSB successfully increased its charter capital from VND 14,785 billion to VND 20,403 billion by issuing shares to employees through the ESOP Program This strategic move has enhanced the equity/assets ratio, which rose from 8.82% in 2021 to 11.34% in 2022, maintaining a ratio of 11.05% in Q1 2023.

Table 6.4: SSB - Customer deposit mobilization

In 2022, deposits from customers reached VND 115,547 billion, up 5.24% in 2022 and up 1.85% to VND 117,695 billion in Q1/2023 In which, individual customers still accounted for a relative proportion of over 61% (on 31/12/2022)

SSB's deposit structure is predominantly influenced by the science and technology sector, which constitutes over 61% of total customer deposits This group is highly sensitive to interest rate changes, leading to significant term differences between loans and deposits Consequently, fluctuations in interest rates can significantly impact the bank's overall business performance.

Table 6.5: SSB - Loans to customers

VND) % Change Loans to customers (billion VND) 127,588 153,956 20.66% 159,281 3.5%

On 31/12/2022, customer loans increased by 20.66% to VND 153,956 billion and continued to increase by 3.5% to VND 159,281 billion in Q1/2023

The customer base remains predominantly centered around financial institutions, which introduces a potential risk of credit concentration, particularly concerning the credit financing of major shareholders of the BRG Group Additionally, SSB has adjusted its loan structure by increasing the share of medium and long-term loans while simultaneously decreasing the proportion of short-term loans.

Government Bonds and Government Guaranteed Bonds 15,250 6,239 12,574 Debt securities issued by domestic financial institutions 7,001 5,367 3,720 Debt securities issued by domestic corporate institutions 7,624 965 624

SSB's debt securities portfolio has seen a significant decline of 58%, dropping from VND 29,875 billion to VND 12,572 billion Government bonds decreased by 59%, now totaling VND 6,239 billion, which constitutes 50% of the portfolio but only 2.7% of total assets Bonds from financial institutions fell by 23% to VND 5,367 billion, while corporate bonds experienced a drastic 87% reduction, plummeting from VND 7,624 billion to VND 965 billion Amid the State Bank's tightening regulations on corporate bonds, many financial institutions have been compelled to repurchase corporate bonds or restructure them into loans.

SSB possesses VND 5,367 billion in government bonds, yet has a net loan amounting to VND 14,651 billion Consequently, these government bonds serve as collateral for interbank market loans, limiting their ability to enhance the bank's liquidity during times of risk.

Table 6.7: SSB - Transactions with other financial institutions

1 Deposits and loans to other financial institutions

2 Receiving deposits and borrowing from other financial institutions (VND billion) 58,366 59,720 68,338

Interbank net deposit/Total debt -8.17% -7.14% -6.15%

In 2022, SSB deposits and loans to other financial institutions rose by 5.8% to reach 45,068 billion VND, with a significant increase of 22% to 54,926 billion VND in Q1 2023 Additionally, borrowing from other financial institutions grew by 2.3% in 2022, totaling 59,720 billion VND, and surged by 14% to 68,338 billion VND in the first quarter of 2023.

As of December 31, 2022, SSB reported a net loan value of VND 14,651 billion, representing 7.14% of its total liabilities The bank relies significantly on the interbank market for funding, with interbank loans making up 28% of its total liabilities This heavy dependence on interbank loans poses sustainability challenges and exposes SSB to high exchange rate risks amid market fluctuations.

In 2022, Seabank continued to utilize liquidity beautification techniques, evidenced by an unsigned cross-deposit with financial institutions exceeding VND 7,000 billion.

Financial ratios

2 The ratio of short-term funds for medium and long-term loans 18.46% 14.03% 14.52%

3 The ratio of highly liquid assets to total liabilities 21.2% 19.85% 18.15%

5 The loan to deposit (LDR) 78.20% 85.30% 83.99%

As of December 31, 2022, the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) stood at 14.66%, positioning it favorably against other banks adhering to Basel II standards, such as TPB at 12.6%, EIB at 14.64%, and MSB at 12.33% By the first quarter of 2023, the CAR slightly decreased to 14.09% Additionally, the proportion of short-term funds allocated to medium and long-term loans fell from 18.46% in 2021 to 14.03% in 2022, reflecting a strong performance compared to the industry average.

49 increased long-term bond issuance The ratio of highly liquid assets to total liabilities reached 19.83%, which is a good level

The ratio of equity/assets has improved relative to previous years, from 8.82% (in 2021) to 11.34% (in 2022) LDR remained in a high level, which is nearly 84% in Q1/2023

Bad debt ratio is relatively low compared to the system, around 1.6% NPL coverage ratio has been gradually increased and is at a good average level in the industry (2021: 84.65%; 2022: 98.9%; Q1/2023: 105.1%)

Profitability ratios of SSB improved compared to 2021 with ROA 1.83%; ROE 18.05%; NIM 3.29% in 2022 In Q1/2023, profit decreased, leading to a decrease in profitability indicators: ROA 1.43%; ROE 12.81%; NIM 3.16%

EPS in the first quarter of 2023 reached 1,996, a slight decrease compared to the end of

2022 P/E dropped sharply in 2022 (down 35%), reached 14.68 and increased slightly to 15.75 in early 2023.

Risk

Actual bad debt tends to decrease over the years Outstanding loans focused on financial institutions account for 77% of the total outstanding loans with potential for concentrated credit risk

Equity securities and long-term investments account for a small proportion of total assets

The ratio of highly liquid assets tends to decrease over years but is still higher compared to other banks of the same size such as: MSB: 15.12%, OCB: 16.93%

The bank regularly borrows in the interbank market However, net borrowing in interbank market on debt ratio tends to increase again

Deposits from individual customers account for 60% and are sensitive to high interest rates

The amount of outstanding loans in foreign currencies is low, which does not materially affect SeABank's business activities

CHAPTER 7: VIBANK

Business Description

Vietnam International Commercial Joint Stock Bank (VIB) has been a prominent financial institution for 25 years, boasting a network that includes 1 Head Office, 57 branches, and 121 transaction offices, along with a subsidiary and a workforce of 10,030 employees as of March 31, 2023 As of the same date, VIB's charter capital stands at VND 21,076 billion.

Shareholder structure

Data on VIB's shareholders as of December 31 st 2022 is as follows:

No Name of shareholder Ownership rate

1 Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) 20.34%

2 Mr Dang Khac Vy & related person 14.81%

3 Mr Do Xuan Hoang & related person 12.62%

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), holding a 20.34% stake in Vietnam International Bank (VIB), is the second-largest bank in Australia by total assets CBA's robust support significantly contributes to VIB's strong reputation in the banking sector However, there are concerns regarding potential conflicts of interest among the Eastern European shareholder group, which includes individuals such as Mr Dang Khac Vy, Mr Han Ngoc Vu, Mr Dang Van Son, and Mr Do Xuan Hoang.

Mr Tran Nhat Minh) has a high ownership rate and can indirectly own VIB through other legal entities

Business Strategy and plan

VIB is committed to retail and digital transformation, with a strategy centered on digital banking, digitization, and data utilization The bank aims to maintain its leadership in the card sector by enhancing credit card identity through improved quality, features, and technology, ultimately enriching customer experience Additionally, VIB plans to diversify its card offerings and enhance the "talking" card feature by integrating AR/VR technology into the QR code on the back of the cards.

Criteria Results for 2022 Target for 2023 %Target for

In 2023, VIB aims to boost its charter capital by 20%, distributing 35% of dividends to shareholders, which includes up to 15% in cash dividends and 20% in bonus shares By the end of the year, VIB's charter capital is projected to reach VND 25,368 billion.

VIB also set a growth target of 15.3% for total assets, 25% for customer deposits and customer loans VIB expects pre-tax profit in 2023 to reach VND 12,200 billion, up 26.2%.

SWOT Analysis

- Strong support from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia

- Disproportionate term between deposit and lending

- Highly dependent on interbank sources

- The bank has built a good image and reputation in the market and has a loyal and stable customer base

VIB distinguishes itself in the market by offering a wide range of credit card products that cater to diverse customer needs This focus on promoting varied credit card options is a key strategy for VIB, enhancing customer satisfaction and engagement.

- Many technologies have not been applied in business operation, the internal working process is still cumbersome and there is a lot of paperwork

- HR apparatus tends to age

Financial Statement Analysis

1 Net interest income/Interest income 56.33% 54.39% 47.36%

2 Net interest income/Total operating income 79.35% 82.86% 87.31%

3 Net service income/Total operating income 18.41% 17.66% 12.55%

4 Net foreign exchange/Total operating income -0.58% -1.52% -0.56%

5 Net income from trading securities and investment securities/Total operating income 1.32% -0.97% -0.21%

6 Income from buying and selling other long- term investments/Total operating income 0.01% 0.02% 0.00%

7 Other income/Total operating income 1.48% 1.97% 0.92%

8 Operating expenses/Total operating income 35.47% 34.32% 31.80%

10 Provision expense for credit risks (VND billion) 1,598 1,280 668

11 Profit after tax (billion VND) 6,410 8,469 2,155

The bright spot in VIB's business is that it has always maintained high profit growth VIB's pre-tax profit in 2022 increased by 32% to VND 10,581 billion

VIB's total operating income in 2022 reached VND 18,058 billion, up 21% compared to

In 2021, the bank's profit was driven by diverse revenue streams, with net interest income representing 83% and rising by 27% to VND 14,963 billion Additionally, service revenue accounted for 18% and experienced a 16% growth, reaching VND 3,188 billion However, in 2022, VIB faced losses in its foreign exchange, securities trading, and investment activities.

Operating expenses in 2022 increased by 17% to VND 6,197 billion In the context of increasing bad debt, VIB reduced provision expenses for credit risks by 20% to VND 1,280 billion to boost profits

In Q1 2023, the pre-tax profit surged to VND 2,694 billion, marking an 18% increase compared to the same period last year Net interest income rose by 22% to VND 4,304 billion; however, interest expenses outpaced income growth due to rising deposit interest rates at year-end Additionally, net profits from services and trading securities either declined or incurred losses Operating expenses saw a modest increase of 7%, while provisions for credit losses escalated significantly by 68%.

Table 7.3: VIB - Asset, Liabilities and Equity

Criteria Value (billion VND) % Total assets

Money, gold deposited and lent to other financial institutions

Góp vốn, đầu tư dài hạn 70 69 69 0,02% 0,02% 0,02%

Bất động sản đầu tư 3 3 3 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%

Deposits and loans from other financial institutions 64.456 71.166 86.316 20,82% 20,76% 24,16% Customer's deposit 173.565 200.124 199.267 56,08% 58,38% 55,78% Issuing valuable papers 42.298 31.775 31.496 13,67% 9,27% 8,82%

Funds of financial institutions and other capital

On 31/12/2022, VIB's total assets reached VND 342,799 billion, up 10.8% compared to

As of the first quarter of 2023, the bank's assets rose by 4.2% compared to 2021, totaling VND 347,247 billion The asset structure is primarily composed of customer loans, which represent 67%, followed by interbank market loans at 15%, and investment securities at 12%.

VIB has significantly increased its charter capital in recent years, rising from VND 15,531 billion in 2021 to VND 21,076 billion in 2022, marking a 36% growth The bank plans to further enhance its capital, with a target to reach VND 25,368 billion in 2023, thereby improving its capital adequacy.

55 ratios while reducing financial pressure on equity Equity/total asset ratio increased from 7.85%

Table 7.4: VIB - Customer deposit mobilization

As of December 31, 2022, VIB experienced a 15.3% increase in customer deposits, reaching VND 200,124 billion, although this figure slightly decreased to VND 199,267 billion by March 31, 2023 The majority of VIB's deposit structure is derived from the science and technology sector, with 70% of total deposits coming from a customer group characterized by high repeatability and sensitivity to interest rates, which can significantly influence the bank's business operations amid interest rate fluctuations.

The bank's CASA demand deposit ratio decreased from 16.11% to 13.64% in 2022, affecting NIM

Table 7.5: VIB - Loans to customers

Loans to customers (billion VND) 201,677 232,048 15% 229,278 -1.2%

On December 31 st 2022, customer loans increased, reaching the SBV's credit room by 14.5% Customer loans increased by 15% to VND 232,048 billion and decreased by 1.2% to VND 229,278 billion on 31/03/2023

VIB's loan portfolio is predominantly comprised of individual customers, who represent 90% of outstanding loans, while institutional customers account for only 10% The majority of these loans are home loans, which increases vulnerability to risks associated with a potential freeze in the real estate market.

VIB emphasizes a loan structure primarily composed of medium and long-term loans, which represent 71% of its portfolio, while short-term loans make up only 29% This focus on longer-term lending enhances the bank's interest income; however, it also introduces potential liquidity risks associated with the repayment of short-term capital sources.

Government Bonds and Government Guaranteed Bonds 6,851 5,888 27,243 Debt securities issued by domestic financial institutions 35,277 32,533 45,038 Debt securities issued by domestic corporate institutions 2,628 1,872 1,497

As of December 31, 2022, VIB's investment securities experienced a 10% decline, totaling VND 40,293 billion Within this portfolio, government bonds represented 15%, decreasing by 14% to VND 5,888 billion, which is 1.72% of total assets Bonds from financial institutions accounted for VND 32,533 billion, making up 81% of the portfolio, while corporate bonds saw a significant drop of 29%, falling to VND 1,872 billion, which constitutes 5% of the total portfolio.

On March 31, 2023, the investment portfolio underwent a significant transformation, marked by a reduction in corporate bond holdings and an increased focus on financial institutions and government bonds This strategic shift led to a notable rise in the proportion of government bonds within total assets, escalating from 1.7% to 7.6%.

Table 7.7: VIB - Transactions with other financial institutions

1 Deposits and loans to other financial institutions (VND billion) 27.985 51.900 43.216

2 Receiving deposits and borrowing from other financial institutions (VND billion) 64.456 71.166 86.316

Interbank net deposit/Total debt -12,79% -6,21% -13,27%

As of December 31, 2022, VIB experienced significant growth in its interbank market operations, with deposits and loans to other financial institutions rising by 85.46% to VND 51,900 billion Additionally, borrowing from other financial institutions increased by 10%, totaling VND 71,166 billion.

As of December 31, 2022, VIB's net borrowing value fell by 47% from 2021, reaching VND 19,267 billion, which constitutes 6.21% of its total liabilities The bank relies significantly on interbank market capital for customer lending and investment activities, indicating a potential vulnerability in its funding strategy.

57 dependence on the interbank market is characterized by unsustainable characteristics and high exchange rate risk when the market fluctuates.

Financial ratios

2 The ratio of short-term funds for medium and long-term loans 21.94% 30.00% 38.02%

3 The ratio of highly liquid assets to total liabilities 17.66% 17.59% 19.96%

5 The loan to deposit (LDR) 79.53% 83.60% 77.19%

The liquidity ratios indicate that the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) has stabilized around 12% Notably, the proportion of short-term funds allocated to medium and long-term loans has surged from 21.94% to 30%, approaching the State Bank's regulatory requirements By Q1 2023, this figure rose significantly to 38.02% Additionally, the ratio of liquid assets to total liabilities stands at 17.6%, bolstered by virtual capital injections via VIB, which sustains demand deposits at other financial institutions, making up 42% of the highly liquid assets.

The equity/total assets remain at a stable level It reached 9.12% in Q1/2023 LDR hit a high of 83.6% in 2022 but improved in Q1/2023, to only 77.19%

The bad debt ratio rose from 2.32% to 2.45%, with asset quality deteriorating as overdue debt increased from 6.83% to 9.07% by March 31, 2023 Total bad debt surged by 46%, pushing the bad debt ratio up to 3.64%, positioning SSB among the banks with the highest bad debt ratios in the industry Additionally, the non-performing loan (NPL) coverage ratio fell to a concerning low of just 38% in Q1 2023.

VIB's profitability ratios remained at a good level in the system with ROA 2.60%; ROE 29.75%; NIM 4.72% in 2022 In 2023, profitability indicators remained high: ROA 2.46%; ROE 26.43%; NIM 5.02%.

Risk

Since 2022, VIB has experienced a steady decline in asset quality, leading to its classification among banks with the highest bad debt ratios as of March 31, 2023 Furthermore, the bank's credit risk provision ratio has dropped significantly from 54% to just 38%, indicating a concerning weakness in VIB's risk tolerance.

VIB's credit on deposit ratio at 101% is high in the system, showing that liquidity is quite tight VIB relies heavily on interbank loans

VIB primarily emphasizes large medium and long-term loans, whereas its medium and long-term deposits are merely average This reliance on a substantial medium and long-term loan structure can obscure liquidity risks, particularly when short-term capital sources require repayment.

Deposits from individual customers account for 90% and are sensitive to high interest rates

The shareholder structure has strong financial potential and good support for the bank's operations.

Company Valuation

Using Price Multiple methods, the industry average P/E and P/B ratios are determined to be 7.32 and 1.23, respectively With VIB having 2,529,207,534 outstanding shares, the expected price per share is calculated to be VND 20,248.

Using the Residual Income Valuation method, we project SSB's stable annual growth at 3% while determining the cost of capital through the CAPM model at 15% This analysis yields an expected share price of VND 30,605, with detailed calculations available in Appendix 5.2.

VIB's current market price stands at VND 21,400, which is significantly lower than the valuation derived from the Residual Income method In contrast, this price exceeds the valuation obtained through Price Multiple methods We recommend further observation of VIB shares for potential insights.

CHAPTER 8: CONCLUSION

The article highlights how Vietnam's financial, economic, and social landscape is influenced by global trends, illustrating the significant effects of these factors on the country's banking sector.

This article analyzes the performance of four banks within a challenging economic environment, offering valuable insights for bank managers on navigating and overcoming these difficulties.

The article provides investment recommendations for banks, suggesting a buy for LPB and TPB, while advising to sell SSB Additionally, VIB is identified as a volatile option that requires closer monitoring for informed decision-making.

GDP Growth

In 2022, Vietnam's economy experienced a robust growth of 8.02%, marking the strongest increase in recent years, largely due to the low comparison base set by the pandemic-affected 2021 This growth was driven by significant domestic consumption, a surge in exports, and increased foreign direct investment (FDI) disbursement Notably, total retail sales of consumer goods and services rose by 19.8% compared to 2021, with a real increase of 15.6% when adjusted for price factors (VnExpress, 2022) The rebound of key partner economies further boosted Vietnam's export performance, while its ability to attract foreign investment continues to position it as a favorable destination for international capital.

Exchange rates – VND/USD

Table 3: Exchange rates – VND/USD

The dollar experienced a significant increase in global financial markets following the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike Concurrently, the VND/USD exchange rate faces upward pressure driven by heightened demand for foreign currencies Additionally, the ongoing trade deficit remains substantial, primarily attributed to a surge in import activities.

When the US raises interest rates, capital flows tend to move from emerging markets to USD-denominated assets, leading to a higher demand for the US dollar and resulting in the depreciation of other currencies.

In 2022, despite the dollar's notable rise, bank-listed prices remained below the established ceiling This situation arose because the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) intervened by selling substantial amounts of foreign currency to control the increase in the exchange rate.

From 2016 to 2020, Vietnam maintained a stable inflation rate of 2.7% to 3.5% due to strict economic regulations (baochinhphu.vn, 2022) In 2021, despite challenges from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and global supply chain disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, Vietnam managed to keep its inflation rate at a low 1.84%, standing out against a backdrop of rising global inflation However, in 2022, the inflation rate rose to 3.21%.

High inflation continues to exert significant pressure on the prices of strategic materials and supplies, driven by a global upward price trend Additionally, rising transportation, logistics, and raw material costs are exacerbated by disruptions in the supply chain However, factors such as tax and fee exemptions, along with a plentiful supply of consumer goods in the market, help alleviate some of the inflationary pressures.

Vietnam's rapidly growing population is set to create a predominantly labor-focused demographic, which will drive economic development However, this growth also poses significant challenges, placing increased pressure on essential sectors such as health, education, and employment.

17 development means that the demand for banking services will increase This can be seen as a positive point for the banking industry

By 2050, our country's population is expected to reach a staggering 130 to 140 million, leading to its classification as a super-aged nation (The United Nations, 2004) This demographic shift poses significant challenges for the economy as a whole, with particular implications for the banking sector.

The younger generation is increasingly moving away from traditional cash payments in favor of cards and QR code transactions, presenting significant growth opportunities for banks As consumers prioritize digital banking solutions that facilitate convenient transactions without the need to visit physical branches, banks are urged to enhance their digital technology offerings Additionally, Vietnamese consumers show a preference for credit cards over debit cards, attracted by benefits such as refunds, interest-free periods, and exclusive vouchers In response, many banks are expanding their range of credit card products to capture a larger customer base.

Successfully digitising, many banks have risen to the top in a short time such as TPBank,

In recent times, banks such as MB, VIB, OCB, and Techcombank have made significant strides in digital transformation, leading to increased consumer trust in non-cash payment methods This shift has facilitated the rise of digital platforms for commercial activities, including buying and selling orders, product introductions, and service deliveries According to the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), this trend reflects a broader movement towards digital financial solutions, enhancing efficiency and convenience in transactions.

In the first half of 2022, non-cash payment transactions surged by 77.2% in quantity and 29.8% in value compared to the same period in 2021 Notably, transactions conducted via the Internet rose by 63.2% in quantity and 32.3% in value, while mobile transactions experienced an impressive increase of 98.3% in quantity and 84.3% in value Additionally, QR code payments saw significant growth, with a 86% rise in quantity and a remarkable 127% increase in value (Vnbusiness, 2022).

To stay competitive in a rapidly evolving market, banks must prioritize innovation to attract and retain customers This involves a comprehensive approach across various areas, with a strong emphasis on product innovation Banks should diversify their offerings by expanding deposit and loan products with varied maturities, methods, and interest rates, as well as introducing innovative card solutions, such as non-physical and hybrid cards, to cater to diverse customer needs.

Banks must prioritize process innovation by streamlining internal operations and enhancing customer service efficiency Additionally, they should develop and continuously adapt new marketing strategies to effectively attract and retain customers.

Between 2017 and 2023, the banking industry in Vietnam experienced significant fluctuations due to various global economic and political events, as well as inflationary pressures (VietstockFinance, 2023) While the banking sector saw a sharp increase in profits from 2017 to 2021, net interest margins (NIM) reached historic highs in 2021 and early 2022, before facing downward pressure from rising operating interest rates set by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) In 2022, growth slowed due to credit growth limits, increasing interest rates, and rising bad debts, with many banks hitting the credit growth ceiling by mid-year Credit activities have been tightly regulated, focusing on areas that require efficient capital use The rise in interest rates and liquidity challenges have hindered smaller banks' ability to attract savings deposits Despite these challenges, commercial joint-stock banks have continued to expand their credit and profit more rapidly than state-owned banks, which still dominate the lending and deposit markets in Vietnam.

Source: Financial statements 2022 of banks

In 2023, the banking industry faces significant challenges, as highlighted by Hoang Lan High interest rates, particularly for deposit mobilization, exert pressure on maintaining net interest margins (NIM) This environment is mirrored in government bond yields, which have risen by 80-100 basis points, impacting investment income Additionally, the real estate market, accounting for about 20% of total credit, is struggling, creating further pressure to increase lending amidst economic liquidity issues The cost of provisioning for credit risks is also rising, as many real estate loans are at risk of becoming non-performing due to tightened credit Furthermore, the corporate bond market poses a risk of increased bad debt, as high interest rates and legal challenges affect many projects, leading to defaults on bond obligations and further straining bank credit.

High supplier pressure significantly impacts a bank's liquidity and operations, primarily due to the challenge of raising capital at low costs Banks obtain capital from various sources, including customer deposits, interbank market deposits, loans from state banks, and the issuance of debt or capital securities Despite this diversity, bank managers face the critical challenge of selecting cost-effective input sources This pressure intensifies during periods of tight liquidity, compelling banks to mobilize funds from all available sources, often at elevated prices, to maintain necessary liquidity.

Deposits market shares

Source: Financial statements 2022 of banks

The banking industry faces significant challenges in 2023, as highlighted by Hoang Lan (2023) High interest rates, particularly for deposit mobilization, are pressuring the maintenance of net interest margins (NIM) Government bond yields have also risen by 80-100 basis points, impacting investment income Additionally, the real estate market, which constitutes about 20% of total credit, is struggling, leading to increased pressure on lending and liquidity The rising costs of provisioning for credit risks are concerning, as many real estate loans may turn into bad debts if credit restrictions persist Furthermore, the risk of bad debt from corporate bonds is escalating due to high interest rates and legal challenges faced by numerous projects, resulting in a bleak outlook for the real estate sector and an uptick in defaults on bond obligations.

High pressure from suppliers significantly impacts a bank's liquidity and operations, primarily due to the challenge of raising capital at low costs The bank's capital originates from various sources, including customer deposits, interbank market deposits, loans from state banks, and the issuance of debt or capital securities Despite this diversity, bank managers face difficulties in selecting the most cost-effective input sources This pressure intensifies during periods of tight liquidity, compelling banks to mobilize funds from all available sources, often at elevated prices, to maintain necessary liquidity.

Moderate pressure exists for banks to identify profitable output sources for their funds This pressure is manageable, as banks can strategically select the most effective avenues for generating profit For instance, if lending becomes challenging due to high interest rates or limited credit availability, banks can pivot to investing in bonds or providing loans to other financial institutions Regardless of market conditions, banks can always find suitable and effective sources for their money.

In Vietnam, the pressure to establish new banks is minimal due to the complex procedures involved Following the rapid rise of commercial banks in 2008, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has revised and tightened the criteria for bank establishment, resulting in no new joint stock commercial banks being created since then.

The impact of substitute products on banks is relatively low, as their offerings often show minimal differentiation While bank products can vary in service fees, incentives, features, terms, and target customer profiles, the overall competition remains mild Ultimately, customers' choices are primarily influenced by their individual risk appetites.

The competitive landscape in the banking sector is intense, driven by various factors aimed at attracting customers, including credit activities and capital mobilization Despite offering similar products and services, banks continuously strive to innovate and enhance their offerings to entice more depositors and borrowers Key competitive elements include interest rates and bank reputation for loan and deposit products, while service fees and incentives play a crucial role in service offerings Additionally, banks actively engage in the interbank market to trade currencies, securities, and foreign currencies, where competition is fierce and outcomes vary significantly, leading to both winners and losers.

(All the information and data are taken from VietstockFinance (2023) and LPBank’s financial statement)

30/07/2023 Banking Industry Vietnam BUY VND 16,801

We suggest to BUY this stock as the expected price is VND 16,801 LPB shares are considered to have a tendency to increase in price in the near future

Lien Viet Post Bank is a mid-sized bank operating in the field of finance and banking, with 15 years of operation and development

LPB's pre-tax profit in 2022 recorded a significant increase, reaching VND

5,690 billion, up 56% over the same period and completing 118% of the year plan

In 2022, the bank experienced a significant rise in bad debt, with the balance increasing by 19.7% from VND 2,863 billion to VND 3,427 billion, which now represents 1.46% of the total outstanding loans to customers.

On the stock market, LPB shares closed at 15,400 VND/share At this price,

LPB has returned to the price range in

April 2022, even nearly doubled the bottom recorded in mid-November

Growth rate (%) Total asset 289,193 327,745 13.33 Total equity 16,801 24,055 43.17 Net interest income 9,017 11,900 31.97 Total operating income 10,051 14,170 40.98 Profit after tax 2,873 4,510 56.97

12m high/low 16,100/6,300 Price as of 30/07/2023 15,400

Lien Viet Post Commercial Joint Stock Bank (LPB) has established a strong

No Name of shareholder Ownership rate

2 Nguyen Duc Thuy - Chairman of the Board of Directors of LPBank 2.76%

VNPost is the largest shareholder of LPB, holding 8.13% of the shares, followed by Chairman Nguyen Duc Thuy with 2.76% (47.8 million shares) State ownership stands at 9.86%, while foreign ownership is at 4.86% Earlier this year, VNPost attempted to divest from LPB by auctioning its shares at a starting price of VND 22,908, but the effort was unsuccessful due to the price being too high compared to the current market value.

LPB's strategic plan for the upcoming years centers on four key objectives: enhancing retail development by leveraging its extensive network, advancing digital transformation to elevate customer service quality, boosting revenue from non-credit activities like insurance and consulting, and prioritizing bad debt recovery, emphasizing that recovering capital is more crucial than generating profit.

Criteria Results for 2022 Target for 2023 %Target for 2023/Results for 2022

In its 2023 plan, LPB aims to boost its charter capital by 19% through the issuance of 328.5 million shares for dividend payments The bank anticipates a 17.8% growth in deposits and a 16% increase in credit Additionally, LPB expects to raise its total assets to VND 375,000 billion, marking a 14.4% increase The profit target is set at VND 6,000 billion, reflecting a 5.45% rise compared to the previous year.

- The first bank follows the model of Bank – Post Office linkage

- Having a network and branch system across 63 provinces and cities in Vietnam

- Service fee is cheaper than other banks

- New technologies have not been applied yet Data aggregation and storage are mainly paperwork; the core banking system has not been completed

- Young staff and high turnover rate

- Opportunity to expand the customer base and develop the retail segment due to the large size of the transaction office

- VNPost divestment may change the existing model of Bank – Post Office, which will take time for the bank to adjust

- Change of leadership makes LPB take time to readjust the organizational structure and stabilize personnel

1 Net interest income/Total operating income 89.74% 86.24% 87.43%

2 Net service income/Total operating income 8.53% 12.04% 7.12%

3 Net foreign exchange/Total operating income 1.37% 0.07% 4.54%

4 Net income from trading securities and investment securities/Total operating income 0.03% 2.48% 1.26%

5 Income from buying and selling other long-term investments/Total operating income 0.00% 0.38% 0.00%

6 Other income/Total operating income 0.33% 1.46% -0.35%

7 Operating expenses/Total operating income 50.66% 38.46% 42.36%

9 Provision expense for credit risks (VND billion) 1,322 3,173 234

10 Profit after tax (billion VND) 2,873 4,510 1,243

In 2022, LPB achieved impressive business results, with earnings before tax (EBT) rising by 56% to VND 5,689 billion Total operating income increased by 37.31%, reaching VND 13,797 billion, driven primarily by a 31.96% rise in net interest income, which accounted for 86.24% of total income at VND 11,899 billion Additionally, net service income surged by 93.82% to VND 1,661 billion, while operating expenses saw a modest increase of 4.24% However, provisions for credit risk expenses escalated significantly by 140%, totaling VND 4,510 billion.

In the first quarter of 2023, EBT fell by 12.8% year-on-year to VND 1,565 billion, primarily due to a 3.51% decline in net interest income, which accounted for 87.43% of total income, totaling VND 2,774 billion Conversely, net service income rose by 15.21%, reaching VND 318 billion, representing 7.12% of total income Operating expenses surged by 16.56% to VND 1,344 billion, while provisions for credit risk saw a significant decrease of 28.29%, amounting to VND 223 billion.

Table 4.3: LPB - Asset, Liabilities and Equity

Criteria Value (billion VND) % Total assets

Criteria Value (billion VND) % Total assets

Money deposited at and lent to other financial institutions 22,438 31,967 31,948 7.76% 9.75% 9.47%

Derivatives and other financial assets 84 0 360 0.03% 0.00% 0.11%

TOTAL ASSETS 289,193 327,745 337,196 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% Debts to the Government and the SBV 1,702 3,076 765 0.59% 0.94% 0.23%

Deposits and loans from other financial institutions 46,281 39,660 26,405 16.00% 12.10% 7.83% Customer's deposit 180,276 215,888 227,283 62.34% 65.87% 67.40% Derivatives and other financial assets 0 42 0 0.00% 0.01% 0.00%

Funds of financial institutions and other capital 2,183 2,860 2,860 0.75% 0.87% 0.85%

By the end of 2022, LPB's total assets reached VND 327,745 billion, reflecting a 13.33% growth from the previous year In the first quarter of 2023, total assets increased to VND 337,196 billion, marking a 2.88% rise Loans to customers constituted the largest share at 70.64%, followed by investment securities at 14.36% The primary drivers for the growth in total assets were significant increases in money lent to other financial institutions, customer loans, investment securities, and receivables.

In 2022, LPB enhanced its charter capital through three key methods: issuing 225.5 million shares as a 15% dividend from its undistributed after-tax profit for 2021, conducting a private placement of nearly 96 million shares to foreign investors with a maximum foreign ownership limit of 9.99%, and offering 300 million shares to existing shareholders at a rate of 16.44%.

Table 4.4: LPB - Customer deposit mobilization

Industry average P/E and P/B rate

Appendix 1: Industry average P/E and P/B rate

LPB’s share valuation using the multiple price methods

Actual Financial Statement Data for LPB

Suggested value of equity (I x II)

Target share value = Mean market equity value/ total outstading shares

LPB’s share valuation using the residual income valuation methods

Risk free rate = 2.7% (Investing, 2023) Risk Premium = 10% (VnDirect, 2023) Long - term growth rate of LPB = 3%

Required rate of returns = r = Rf + β*(Rm - Rf) = 13.70%

Present value of Residual income 4510 3542.15 3208.81 2906.84 2633.28

Share price Vo = Total present value of Residual income = 16,801

TPB’s share valuation using the multiple price methods

Actual Financial Statement Data for TPB

Suggested value of equity (I x II)

Target share value = Mean market equity value/ total outstading shares

TPB’s share valuation using the residual income valuation methods

Risk free rate = 2.7% (Investing, 2023) Risk Premium = 10% (VnDirect, 2023) Long - term growth rate of TPB = 3%

Required rate of returns = r = Rf + β*(Rm - Rf) = 10.60%

Present value of Residual income 6260 5229.87 4870.49 4535.81 4224.13 Share price Vo = Total present value of Residual income = 25,120

SSB’s share valuation using the multiple price methods

Actual Financial Statement Data for SSB

Suggested value of equity (I x II)

Target share value = Mean market equity value/ total outstading shares

SSB’s share valuation using the residual income valuation methods

Risk free rate = 2.7% (Investing, 2023) Risk Premium = 10% (VnDirect, 2023) Long - term growth rate of SSB = 3%

Required rate of returns = r = Rf + β*(Rm - Rf) = 9.80%

Present value of Residual income 4052 3439.40 3226.39 3026.58 2839.14 Share price Vo = Total present value of Residual income = 16,584

VIB’s share valuation using the multiple price methods

Actual Financial Statement Data for VIB

Suggested value of equity (I x II)

Target share value = Mean market equity value/ total outstading shares

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