Mid term presentation course tourism planning topic the impact of the russia ukraine conflict on vietnam's tourism industry

In particular, due to the impact of the pandemic and conflict, the number of international tourists in general and Russian tourists, in particular, has decreased continuously.. Nguyen Du

VIETNAM GENERAL CONFEDERATION OF LABOR

TON DUC THANG UNIVERSITY

FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES AND HUMANITIES

BAI HOC TON ĐỨC THẮNG TON DUC THANG LINIVERSITY

MID-TERM PRESENTATION COURSE: TOURISM PLANNING

TOPIC:

THE IMPACT OF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT

ON VIETNAM'S TOURISM INDUSTRY

Lecture: MR HA THE LINH Students:

DƯƠNG CHÍ TOÀN - 320H0244

TA NGUYEN THUY KHA - 320H0294 HUYNH HOANG LONG - 320H0303 VĂN NGỌC ĐAN THANH - 320H0344

HO CHI MINH CITY, MARCH 2023

4.1.1 The period before the COVID-19 pandemic

4.1.2 After the pandemic

4.2 Impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on Vietnam's economy and tourism market: -

4.2.2 On Vietnam’s tourism: 21 4.3 Opportunities of Vietnam tourism in the period of conflict between Russia - Ukraine -24

4.1.1 Travel behavior and trends of international tourists after covid and during the conflict period of Russia and Ukraine

4.1.2 The importance of the Russian visitor market

4.2 Vietnam's tourism policy in the post-covid-19 context and the Russia-Ukraine conflict:

Policies and solutions to recover and develop the inbound market in Vietnam:

Focus on exploiting the available market:

Exploiting potential markets:

Issuing visa exemption policy

Changing the way to approach customers:

Investment in tourism infrastructure:

Applying digital technology in marketing:

Developing types of night tourism 38

ABSTRACT: The world has gone through an extremely stressful period due to the impact of Covid-19 Under that context, Vietnam cannot avoid bearing the negative impacts and heavy

losses caused by the pandemic Specifically, in early 2020, for the first time in Vietnam's history, recorded a decrease in domestic and international tourists Not fully recovered from the pandemic, Vietnam continues to suffer the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict In particular, due to the impact of the pandemic and conflict, the number of international tourists

in general and Russian tourists, in particular, has decreased continuously Facing that impact, the government and related parties have also actively issued policies to create conditions for inbound tourism to recover In general, the above context has caused negative impacts on Vietnam's tourism but also created many opportunities for Vietnam's tourism to have many new changes

Keywords: Russia-Ukraine conflict, post-Covid-19, Vietnam's tourism industry, inbound

tourism

I Introduction

According to a survey and investigation by the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), for a country with a developing or developed economy, tourism has become an indispensable need for most people

However, since the end of 2019 - the beginning of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has exploded and spread to most countries in the world, causing the tourism industry to be significantly affected not only in Vietnam but in the whole world In Vietnam, the beginning

of summer 2021 is considered the peak tourist season in many places This is also considered the 4th outbreak of the epidemic, the period that has the most impact on the smokeless tourism industry, causing the largest drop in tourist arrivals to date In particular, the decline in the number of tourists to Vietnam has affected many tourism service businesses including

restaurants, hotels, transportation services,

Besides, in February 2022 a declaration of war between Russian President Vladimir

Putin announcing the opening of a military operation in Ukraine led to the conflict between the two countries serious impact on the global economy This war led to many economic threats and short-term and long-term consequences, the threat of shortages, disruptions in the supply chain of Vietnam, causing inflation in many countries such as the US, Europe and Vietnam increased and the prices of goods continued to rise Those are the reasons that lead to the fact that most countries in the world and Vietnam have indirectly suffered damage to the

economy in general - the tourism industry in particular from the war between Russia - Ukraine According to an interview with Mr Nguyen Duc Tan - General Director of Anex

Vietnam Trade and Tourism Co., Ltd., said that about the two countries war, which affects the

tourism industry as follows: Russia - Ukraine devalued the ruble, causing the company to lose

a number of Russian customers in the mid-range and low-end segments, while others have shelved their intention to travel for fear of economic difficulties."

Since then, some questions about the impact of the covid pandemic and the Russia- Ukraine conflict on Vietnam's tourism or what to do to recover and develop the international tourism market in the context of the Russian conflict - Ukraine and the lack of a large source

of visitors from Russia will be mentioned and resolved in this report

II Literature review

2.1 Background

It can be said that the political as well as cultural and social context has caused significant negative impacts on global tourism in general and Vietnam tourism in particular Specifically, the covid-19 pandemic along with the political conflict between Russia and Ukraine has upheaved and caused negative effects that tourism in the world has faced until now

The World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020 The pandemic is predicted to have many sociocultural, political, and economic impacts Clearly, the global tourism industry is highly vulnerable to such crises and the impact on global travel destinations will be profound and long-lasting Specifically, a significant 78% drop in the share of global tourists and the loss of about 120 million jobs led

to a loss of $1.2 trillion in export revenue This shows that the global economic damage caused by the pandemic is enormous, especially in destinations whose economic systems are largely dependent on the business of tourism

The tourism industry in Asia has also suffered heavily during the first outbreaks of the COVID-19 pandemic More specifically, many businesses are unemployed, bankrupt, lost revenue and budget deficits because of the severe impacts brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic In the study "How much did the Tourism Industry Lost? Estimating Earning Loss

of Tourism in the Philippines" by Raffy S Centeno and Judith P Marquez in 2020, the impact

of COVID 19 on the national tourism business in the Philippines was estimated to cause losses

of more than $7 billion due to the pandemic crisis that lasted until July 2020 In addition, many Asian countries consider tourism as a key economic sector such as Thailand, South

Korea, Indonesia, China, Japan, also suffered the severe consequences of the pandemic Besides the Covid pandemic, the recent intense conflict between Russia and Ukraine has also shaken the tourism industry worldwide The war has added to uncertainty for the

global economy, already reeling from the Covid-19 pandemic, leading to record public debt,

an inflation-driven cost-of-living crisis and labor shortages in essential industries The economic sanctions against Russia come as barriers to world trade increase following an era of rapid globalization Sweeping Western economic sanctions against Russia, especially the removal of Russian banks from the global financial system, have caused the exchange rate of the Russian ruble against the dollar to plummet and rapidly This will negatively affect the income of the Russian people, how they spend and their plans to travel abroad On the other hand, the fact that the Central Bank of Russia also introduced restrictions on individuals

transacting in dollars, will make it difficult for Russians to travel abroad

In many Middle Eastern countries, the tourism industry plays an extremely important role in driving economic growth, creating jobs, and providing a large supply of foreign exchange After controlling the pandemic, countries in the region are optimistic about the recovery of tourism, especially with the lifting of travel restrictions of many countries However, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has exacerbated difficulties for the tourism industry in Middle Eastern countries, especially after the damage caused by the Covid-19 pandemic The conflict took place, posing a series of problems affecting tourism in the region, specifically:

reducing the number of visitors from Eastern Europe, travel activities from Russia and

Ukraine to Middle Eastern tourist destinations facing many difficulties,

As one of the countries that considers Russian tourists as the main market for

exploitation, Vietnam, Thailand and some countries in the region have been severely affected

by the conflict Bhunanan Patanasin, chairman of the Pattaya Business and Tourism

Association (PBTA), said Russian and Ukrainian visitors are the "pillars" of the tourism industry in Pattaya, Phuket, etc When the conflict took place, Thai tourism was also partly affected, specifically the number of Russian visitors to Thailand also decreased significantly Especially Thailand — one of the countries actively in introducing policies to attract international tourists, this is one of the great influences on this service industry of their country

2.2 Theories:

Inbound tourism: In-bound tours are trips to visit and explore the natural beauty and people

of that country where foreigners act as tourists They are people who live and work abroad,

visit that country and stay for a certain period of time In addition, "Inbound Tour" is also

understood as a tour to explore the host country for international visitors (also known as Inbound visitors)

According to UNWTO - World Tourism Organization, Inbound tourism is a tourist activity of

no less than 24 hours and no more than 1 year when arriving outside their home country And

the purpose of the trip is not to work for a long time, but to rest - relax - leisure

Inbound tourist: The definition of a tourist of an international nature was formed at the Rome Conference organized by the United Nations in 1963: "An international tourist is a person who stays temporarily abroad and lives outside their permanent residence for a period of 24 hours

or more.”

According to the Vietnam Tourism Law: "A tourist is a person who travels or combines tourism, except for the case of studying, working or practicing a profession to receive income

at the place of destination"

Tourism's behavior: According to the American Marketing Association, "it is the interaction

between environmental stimuli and human cognition and behavior through which people change their lives." Or, "consumer behavior is a process that allows an individual or group of people to choose, purchase, use, or discard a product/service, existing thoughts, experience, or

accumulation, in order to satisfy their needs or desires."

According to Philip Kotler, “are the specific behaviors of an individual when making decisions to purchase, use, and dispose of a product or service." Travel consumer behavior Travel consumers: According to Assoc Dr Nguyen Van Manh, tourism consumer "is a buyer

of tourism products to satisfy personal needs and desires They are the last consumers of the

tourism product created by the production process A travel consumer can be an individual, a household or a group of (collective) people."

Tourism consumer behavior: "is the whole action that travelers/tourists perform in the process of searching, buying, using and evaluating tourism products to satisfy the needs of their trip”

Ill Results

4.1 Tourism in Vietnam before the influence of the Covid pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict

4.1.1 The period before the COVID-19 pandemic

e Tourism's contribution to the country's GDP

Before the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, the contribution of the tourism industry

to the country's GDP was not small Specifically, in the period 2011 - 2019, Vietnam's tourism

industry achieved encouraging achievements, making an important contribution to promoting socio-economic development, and enhancing the country's position and image 2019 is the 10th year in a row that the tourism industry has had a high and stable growth rate since the global economic-financial crisis in 2009 Total revenue from tourists and the tourism industry's contribution to GDP also increased significantly If in 1990, the total revenue from

tourism only reached VND 1,340 billion, by 2019, that figure will be VND 755,000 billion

(equivalent to USD 32.8 billion), of which the total revenue from international tourists will reach 421,000 billion VND (18.3 billion USD), and total revenue from domestic tourists

reached 334 trillion VND (14.5 billion USD)

Graph 1: Graph of total revenue from tourists, period 1990-2019 (billion VND)

In 2011, total revenue from tourists was only VND 130,000 billion, contributing 3.1%

to GDP By 2019, the total revenue from tourists has increased to 726,000 billion VND (an

increase of more than 5.5 times compared to 2011), the average growth rate for the whole period of 2011 - 2019 is 24%/year, the contribution of tourism m GDP reached 9.2%, Thereby, it can be affirmed that tourism is gradually moving towards becoming a spearhead economic sector according to the target of Resolution 08-NQ/TW dated January 16, 2017 of the Politburo

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 _

Along with the cause of national renewal, the tourism industry has risen and grown rapidly in both scale and quality, affirming its important role and position in the economy The

system of tourist accommodation establishments nationwide is invested more and more strongly, in 1990 there were only 350 establishments with 16,700 sadly, by the end of 2019, the whole country had 30,000 tourist accommodation establishments with 650,000 rooms

Thus, after more than 30 years of renovation and opening to integrate with the world

economy, the system of tourist accommodation establishments of Vietnam's tourism industry

has increased 85 times in number of establishments and 39 times in number of rooms The average growth rate of rooms for the whole period 2011 - 2019 is about 12.3%/year, the average occupancy rate of rooms is about 59%/year Types of accommodation are increasingly

diverse, from a system of high-class accommodation facilities (4-5 star hotels, luxury tourist apartments, tourist villas) to a system of hotels ranked from 1-3 stars, tourist motels, houses

with rooms for tourists to rent (homestay), tourist villages, cruise ships for tourist

The team of international travel business enterprises is growing stronger, in 2019 there were 2,667 enterprises in the whole country, compared to 1990 there were only 4 enterprises,

in 1996 there were 76 enterprises, in 2005 there were 428 enterprises By the end of 2019, the whole country had 27,683 tour guides, including 17,825 international tour guides, 9,134

domestic tour guides and 724 on-site tour guides Regarding international tourists, if in 1990

there were only 250,000 international visitors to Vietnam, in 2019 it will reach more than 18

million arrivals, an increase of 72 times compared to 1990 The annual growth rate usually

reaches 2 numbers, especially in the period 2015-2019 reached 22.7% per year Along with the country's development in the period of opening up and international integration, Vietnamese people's lives are increasingly improved, the demand for and ability to travel is increasing, contributing to improving the spiritual life and promote economic activity in the country In 2019, Vietnam Tourism was honored to receive a series of prestigious awards from prestigious international organizations around the world The most prominent are the awards presented by the World Travel Awards such as: World's leading heritage destination; Leading

Golf Destination in the World and Asia; Asia's top destination; Asia's Leading Cultural Destination and Asia's Leading Culinary Destination Along with that, there are many

prestigious regional and world awards for hotels, resorts, tourist attractions, restaurants, travel companies, airlines

Regarding the total revenue from tourists, in 2019 Vietnam's tourism reached 755

trillion VND (equivalent to 32.8 billion USD), while in 1990 it reached 1,340 billion VND Of which, total revenue from international tourists reached VND 421,000 billion ($18.3 billion),

total revenue from domestic tourists reached VND 334 trillion ($14.5 billion) Tourism's direct

contribution to GDP is also increasing 2015 reached 6.3%; 2016: 6.9%; 2017; 7.9%; in 2018:

8.3% and in 2019: 9.2% With continuous efforts to improve quality, Vietnam has become an attractive destination in the world, respected by international organizations and press honored with prestigious regional and international awards

KHÁCH QUỐC TẾ DEN VIET NAM TRONG QUÝ 1/2020 S0 VỚI CÙNG KỲ NĂM 2019 (%)

Đến bằng Đến bằng Đến từ Đến từ Đến từ Đến từ

Tổng số không

= 3,1

-20,2 -18,1

-21,1

Nguồn: Tổng cục Thống kê Graph 4: Chart of the number of international visitors to Vietnam fluctuated strongly

in the first quarter of 2020

Generaly in the first 3 months of 2019, there were 4,500,114 international visitors to

Vietnam, up 7% over the same period in 2018 Many tourist markets grew, especially key

tourist markets Vietnam's calendar The Northeast Asian market with Korea reached

1,107,794 arrivals, up 24.1%; Taiwan reached 207,095 turns, up 26%; Japan reached 233,355

turns, up 8.3% The Southeast Asian market has Thailand with the strongest growth, reaching 124,588 turns, up 49.3%; Malaysia reached 143,629 arrivals, up 11.1% The European market

has Russia as a prominent market, reaching 215,618 arrivals, up 6.2%; Sweden reached 27,969 tums, up 10.4%; Britain reached 89,879 turns, up 4.7%; France reached 87,322 tums, up 4.1%; Germany reached 72,211 turns, up 6.2%; Italy reached 22,927 arrivals, up 10.3% The

US market also achieved an impressive growth rate with 219,700 arrivals, up 7.9% The

Australian market reached 108,522 turns Also in the first 3 months of the year, domestic tourists reached 24.9 million visitors, of which 12.6 million visitors stayed Total revenue from tourists reached VND 175,100 billion, up 8.35% over the same period in 2018

e Travel trends before the pandemic

With such rapid growth of domestic and international visitors to Vietnam, tourism has become one of the main pillars of international trade and an important source of income for many developing countries UNWTO forecasts that global tourism will grow by about 3-4%

in 2019

Along with the rapidly increasing number of tourists, the trend of different types of tourism has changed significantly The choice of tourists around the globe shows eco-friendly

tourism types such as ecotourism, community tourism, resort tourism and tourism serving

health and beauty needs becoming more and more popular It is forecasted that by the beginning of 2019, tourists traveling for the purpose of visiting, health and religion will account for 31% of the total number of tourists; for the purpose of sightseeing, convalescence, entertainment and entertainment, accounting for 54%; with work and professional purposes accounting for 15%

In fact, the world tourism industry is witnessing the development of many other tourism trends such as self-designed tours, adventure tourism, experiential travel, leisure tourism with modern equipment The trend of tourists is more interested in the quality of experience at the destination instead of the destination image alone, guests will stay more days

if the destination has many interesting experiences and vice versa In the past, beach tourism was popular, but in recent years, it has turned to mountain resorts and experiencing local culture New generation tourists are people who love the environment, respect and are responsible for the environment, so the trend of looking for unique cultural values and pristine

ecology is also becoming popular High-tech tourism such as smart tourism, virtual reality tourism, e-tourism through modern amusement parks, parks and entertainment complexes also increasingly attract a large number of visitors

4.1.2 After the pandemic

e Tourism's contribution to the country's GDP

Tourism is one of the industries hardest hit by the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic In

2020, the tourism industry lost about 4.5 trillion USD, the total revenue of the whole industry was only 4.8 trillion USD, a decrease of 49.1%, the industry's contribution to global GDP was

only 5.3% However, the good news is that the tourism industry has shown signs of recovery

in 2021 Total tourism revenue reached $ 5.8 trillion, contributing 6.1% to global GDP, creating 18 million more jobs jobs, bringing the total number of jobs in the industry to 289 million, but still 44 million fewer than before the pandemic The World Travel and Tourism

Council (WTTC) forecasts that the tourism industry's contribution to GDP is expected to reach

8.5% of the total global economic GDP, or $8.4 trillion by the end of 2022, still 13.3% lower

than the contribution of 9.2 trillion in 2019, the number of jobs will increase by 3.5%, 10%

lower than the total of 333 million jobs in 2019 Under an optimistic scenario In general, tourism's contribution to global GDP and employment in the industry could return to pre- pandemic levels by 2023 In the long-term, the tourism industry's contribution to world GDP

is forecast to grow at an average rate of 5.8%/year in the period 2022-2032, far exceeding the average growth rate of 2.7% of the global economy By 2032, the tourism industry will contribute 14.6 trillion USD, accounting for 11.3% of the total global economic GDP, creating

126 million more jobs in the next decade However, the opening and attracting visitors of countries today depends a lot on the opening of partners The concern of catching Covid-19 and being stuck abroad while traveling makes tourists apprehensive The risks of isolation, health effects, high costs make tourists not really ready to travel internationally at this time

The Covid-19 epidemic has negatively impacted all areas of the economy, including

Vietnam's tourism industry, the number of international tourists as well as domestic tourism

has dropped significantly compared to before the epidemic presently International visitors to

our country in May 2021 were estimated at 13.4 thousand arrivals, down 30.8% over the

previous month and down 40.6% over the same period last year

Generally, in the first 5 months of 2021, international visitors to our country were estimated at 81,000 arrivals, down 97.8% over the same period last year, of which arrivals by air reached 50.5 thousand arrivals down 98.3%; by road reached 30.3 thousand turns of people, down 94.5%; by sea reached 193 arrivals, down 99.9%, In the first 5 months of 2021, visitors from Asia reached 71.6 thousand arrivals, accounting for 88.4% of the total number of international visitors to our country, down 97.4% over the same period last year In which, visitors from main markets all decreased sharply: China reached nearly 34.1 thousand arrivals, down 96.3% over the same period last year; South Korea 16.9 thousand arrivals, down 97.9%; Tatwan 6.2 thousand arrivals, down 96.8%; Laos 4.3 thousand tums of people, down 88.5%; Japan reached nearly 4.2 thousand arrivals, down 97.9% Visitors from Europe in the first 5 months of 2021 were estimated at 6.1 thousand arrivals, down 99.1% over the same period last year; visitors from the Americas reached nearly 2.2 thousand arrivals, down 99.1%; visitors from Australia reached 590 arrivals, down 99.4%; Visitors from Africa reached 590 arrivals, down 95.1%

KHACH QUOC TE DEN VIET NAM GIAI DOAN 2016-2020

18,0

(Triệu lượt người)

15,5

123

201%6 2017 2018 2019 2020

Chart of international tourists to Vietnam in the period 2016-2020

Due to the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic, our country's tourism stimulus policy had

to be temporarily suspended to continue implementing measures to prevent and control the epidemic From the end of April 2021, the Covid-19 epidemic re-emerged, causing some

localities to implement social distancing, many tourists canceled tours and many cultural

festival events canceled, some places visited The closure of the agency has affected tourism revenue Some localities have tourism revenue in the first 5 months of 2021 down much compared to the same period last year: Khanh Hoa down 85.6%; Quang Nam down 68.4%;

Thua Thien - Hue down 48.8%; Ho Chi Minh City decreased by 46.7%; Bac Ninh decreased

by 38.1%; Binh Dinh down 33%; Hanoi decreased by 29.7%; Quang Ninh down 16.6%; Hai Phong down 14.3%; Can Tho fell 13.6%

e Tourism trends after the pandemic

Before the pandemic, tourists just needed to "pack their backpacks and go" regardless

of whether the destination is in the country or abroad, now, tourists need to go through medical examination procedures Accordingly, vaccination certificates, masks, etc will be

indispensable items that tourists need to carry for a long time, when the epidemic is still complicated

Touchless tourism — an inevitable trend to limit contact and prevent disease From the

recommendations of the health authorities, contactless travel has become a hot trend now and

in the near future No-touch while traveling is not only limiting contact between people, between people and objects and surfaces, but also the travel experience with automation

devices and technologies Previously, travel documents were handed over when checking in,

checking, controlling This caused people to wait in line and increased the risk of infection But with COVID-19 travel, every process at the check-in counter and the front desk will be automated

Working in combination with a resort is a type of choice for many people in the context of the trend of remote working becoming popular 2021 will see more and more people working on the islands instead of at home According to the World Travel and Tourism Council, about 34% of travelers would consider booking another destination to stay and work, while 43% would be willing to quarantine if they could work from far away Guest rooms will

be designed as home offices to attract this new wave of "digital nomads"

Domestic travel and close to home is a prominent trend in the context that travel between countries still has many strict regulations According to UNWTO, in 2021, positive signals about domestic tourism are happening in many markets, with people tending to travel close to their places of residence The rise of domestic tourism will boost the demand for

outdoor activities, closeness to nature and rural tourism Experts also mentioned the

emergence of the trend of "slow travel" and community tourism, towards authentic, responsible and sustainable experiences

4.2 Impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on Vietnam's economy and

tourism market:

4.2.1 On the economy

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has sent shockwaves through the world

economy Accordingly, countries around the world are expected to be affected by the conflicts

between Russia and Ukraine in the short and long term The Russia-Ukraine conflict, accompanied by strong Western economic sanctions as well as Russia's reactions, has had a comprehensive and profound negative impact on the world economy, and Vietnam is no exception rate The risks to the Vietnamese economy include:

According to Mr Le Trung Hieu - Director of the National Accounts System Department, Vietnam's import and export will not be directly affected by the war in Ukraine The data from the Ministry of Industry and Trade announced that the import-export turnover between Vietnam and Russia in 2021 will reach 5.5 billion USD, up 13.8% compared to 2020

In which, the export turnover of goods from Russia to Vietnam reached 2.3 billion USD;

Import turnover from Vietnam reached 3.2 billion USD For Ukraine, two-way trade between Vietnam and Ukraine has just reached over US$720 million Thus, both of these markets

account for just over 1.2% of Vietnam's total import and export turnover in 2021

Tăng trưởng GDP năm 2021 và 2022 của một số quốc gia Đông Nam Á

dg hòng F lền char

Indenez Malaysia hil ippene: Thai Lan Singapore Việt Nom

@ Uéc tinh năm 2021 Go ni 22

Phần trăm tăng trưởng GDP của ngành du lịch của một số quốc gia Đông Nam C

With the above import-export statistics, many views believe that the Russia-Ukraine

conflict has little impact on Vietnam However, if you look at some items in detail, there are

many things to pay attention to

° Import:

Imports from Russia, Ukraine and Belarus are small, but belong to the group of goods with high efficiency and strategy of Vietnam In 2021, wood products from Russia are

imported to Vietnam with a value of 55 million USD Although they account for only a low

percentage of the total wood import turnover, these are special types of wood for making special products according to special orders When Russian supplies were cut, Vietnam was forced to compete with companies from other countries looking for alternative sources in the United States and Europe

According to the World Trade Organization, Russia is a major producer of palladium and rhodium, both of which are important components in the production of catalytic converters for vehicles Meanwhile, semiconductor production relies heavily on neon gas supplied by Ukraine Automakers could be harmed if supplies of these materials are disrupted

at a time when the sector is recovering from semiconductor shortages In the first quarter of

2022, the Russia-Ukraine crisis increased the import costs of many raw materials and inputs for domestic production, compared to the same period last year, such as: import prices of tron and steel an increase of 43.87%; gasoline prices increased by 40.44%; price of animal feed

and raw materials increased by 27.73%

° Export:

Vietnamese enterprises that have import-export activities with Russia and Ukraine face difficulties, but the export sector has to face more consequences Currently, Vietnam mainly exports to Russia 3 groups of goods: phones and components; computers, electronic products and components; textiles, accounting for about 57% of exports to Russia These will be the most affected commodity groups in the near future Agricultural and fishery products account for about 15.8% of total exports, a product group that could be affected, despite the fact that Russia is not an important market for these commodities

SSE ¬—- Sty USD @ xXuat khau

715.8% so với cùng kỳ năm trước

I Cơ cấu mặt hàng xuất khẩu:

+20,9% so với cùng kỳ năm trLưrớC

Nhóm nong san chinh Các mật hàng nông sản chính

Sản phẩm chăn nuôi Nhom san phdim chan nudi

2.9 ty USD, T17,0% Ngudn: BO NN-PTNT 982,6 trigu USD, T2,8%

Total export turnover of agriculture, forestry and fishery products in the first 2 months

of 2022 in Vietnam

Regarding the transportation and circulation of products, some shipping lines are currently refusing to accept orders to ship goods from Vietnam to Russia Shipping costs will continue to rise, as will shipping delays, negatively impacting trade in goods An air embargo would also force airlines to choose longer routes, leading to higher costs, more strain on the global logistics system and increasing cargo prices Therefore, the disruption of the supply

chain will also affect other related markets, related to payment transactions with businesses

Many Vietnamese export enterprises have had their orders stopped, the supply of raw materials interrupted, and payment measures delayed The Russia-Ukraine conflict caused a sudden and prolonged decline in food exports from Ukraine and Russia, which continued to put pressure on international commodity prices to the detriment of vulnerable countries economy

Russia and Ukraine have important positions in the global energy and supply chains In particular, Russia is a major supplier in the global market with many items Disruptions in the production or distribution of products lead to disruptions in the supply chain, affecting the prices of many key commodities When the conflict occurred, the prices of Russia's strong

commodities such as wheat, fertilizer, coal, steel, and basic metals all skyrocketed

Russia and Ukraine are two major suppliers of nickel, neon, krypton, aluminum and palladium - important materials for the production of materials that make up electronic devices Therefore, any restriction or stagnation in the supply of goods from Russia could disrupt the electronic equipment production chain Vietnam does not import these materials

directly from Russia and Ukraine, but buys from South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, about $ 59

billion importing machinery, phones, and electronic equipment from other countries East Asian market (accounting for 17.6% of Vietnam's total import turnover in 2021) Therefore, when Russia has economic restrictions, it indirectly affects Vietnam The global supply chain was disrupted, especially for the export of electrical and electronic goods Vietnam faces difficulties in the supply of raw materials and fuels for production Rising fuel prices lead to higher consumer and producer prices

As soon as there was information about Russia's military attack on Ukraine, crude oil

prices quickly set a record price since 2014: Over $102/barrel Currently, the price of gasoline

in the domestic market has exceeded the mark of 26,000 VND/liter Thus, with the world

crude oil price still remaining above 100 USD/barrel, the price of finished petroleum products

in Vietnam is likely to continue to rise in the near future

Pham Luu Hung, Deputy Director of SSI Research Securities, said that a sharp increase in gasoline prices will negatively affect the economy, reducing the effectiveness of the Government's support packages for economic recovery and development underway this year “In addition, the increase in gasoline prices will affect the prices of other goods, which in

tur will make business operations difficult for businesses, and consumers’ income and

spending will also be significantly affected This slows down the economic recovery process," Hung said Some other experts see that the high crude oil price has both positive and negative impacts on the Vietnamese economy, but the negative effects are more On the positive side, rising crude oil prices helped increase budget revenue and tax revenues from gasoline Data from the Ministry of Finance shows that revenue from crude oil in January 2022 is estimated

at VND3,900 billion, up nearly 45% over the same period last year Revenue from import and export tax on petroleum during this period also increased by nearly 17% Many oil and gas companies also benefit from rising crude oil prices

In the opposite direction, a sharp increase in crude oil and petroleum product prices will negatively affect the economy and people's lives Mr Nguyen Bich Lam, former General

Director of the General Statistics Office, said that Vietnam's economy depends heavily on

imported raw materials Therefore, the fact that the world oil price is still on the rise

continuously will increase the price of imported and domestic raw materials Another concern

is that when crude oil price exceeds USD 100/barrel, it will have a great impact on businesses, especially the transportation industry and the manufacturing industry that uses petroleum as raw materials and input fuel, thereby pushing up production costs products escalate, putting pressure on inflation Especially, when the price of petrol increases, people will cut part of their spending, reducing the total demand of the economy

4 Rising prices put pressure on inflation

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine may affect the global commodity market,

causing the price of Brent oil to rise and affect Vietnam's inflation In the gloomy global economic picture covered by the risk of recession and stagnation of inflation, Vietnam's economy emerges as a bright spot Inflation was controlled below target when the average CPI (consumer goods index) in the first 11 months of 2022 increased by 3.02% over the same period last year thanks to solutions to reduce value-added tax and control prices electricity, petrol and essential goods and services managed by the State and solutions to increase interest rates Thereby, helping to stabilize the macroeconomy, supporting production and business activities to continue to recover positively Vietnam is the only Asian country whose economic growth forecast has been raised in 2022 by the IMF thanks to the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions, vaccine coverage efforts, and economic development and recovery programs - society The IMF (October 2022) has raised its growth forecast for Vietnam from 6% to 7% in

2022 and is the country with the highest growth rate in the group of 5 emerging economies in

Southeast Asia including Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand

Previously, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) also kept its forecast for Vietnam's economic

growth at 6.5% and 6.7% for this year and next year, respectively The IMF forecasts

Vietnam's inflation to be 3.7% in 2022 and rise to 3.9% in 2023

of recession, and potential risks on finance, currency and public debt The world economy fell

into a state of stagnant inflation, and the pressure to increase interest rates in major economies has and will have a significant impact on Vietnam

First of all, Vietnam's economy is quite dependent on imported raw materials The increase in prices of energy and raw materials along with the appreciation of the US dollar had

a significant impact on production stability and increased the impact of cost-push inflation due

to imported inflation This creates the risk of imported inflation because the energy crisis, the world food price crisis is still ongoing The CPI (consumer price index) in November increased by 4.56% compared to December 2021 and increased in recent months mainly due

to the increase in the price of essential consumer goods and services in line with raw material prices input materials; some localities increase tuition fees and rent increases In addition, persistent inflationary pressures and the prospect of stronger monetary tightening, especially in the United States and developed economies, could lead to volatility in global financial markets, weakening the economy reduce Vietnam's economic growth, especially at a time when economic activities are slowing down An increase in USD interest rates as a consequence of high inflation in the United States will increase the interest rate level in the international capital market, negatively affecting the ability of emerging economies to borrow

money in the international market In addition, the increase in USD interest rates also makes

investors afraid of risks, shifting capital flows from emerging markets to investing in the US market and some other developed markets to avoid risks and enjoy high interest rates

to increase Specifically, according to statistics of the Vietnam National Administration of

Tourism, in 2018, the tourism industry directly contributed 8.3% and in 2019 contributed 9.2% to the total GDP of the country

However, due to the dual crisis of the Covid19 pandemic recently experienced and followed by the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the proportion of tourism's direct contribution to GDP tends to decrease Specifically, in 2020, at the beginning of the epidemic, total GDP revenue from tourism will only reach 3.58% in 2020, down nearly 5%

from the same period last year Next, in 2021, Vietnam's tourism industry received the

sharpest decline ever in total revenue from tourism in general and contributed to the country's GDP in particular, the contribution rate only reached 1.97%

From there, it shows that there are problems arising that affect the contribution of the

tourism industry to the total GDP of the country

The reason for the decrease in the contribution of direct tourism to GDP is that tourism

has been affected by the war between Russia and Ukraine during the period when Vietnam's

tourism industry has not yet recovered

The war between Russia and Ukraine has also impacted the national economy as fuel prices spike has led to increased transportation and commodity costs The increase in gasoline prices affects the price of transportation services, catering, sightseeing and accommodation services also increase, leading to an increase in the price of tourism services

First, rising gas prices immediately affect passenger car prices The cost of passenger cars increases week by week unlike each unexpected increase in gas prices, making many

travel businesses not take timely measures Because if the abnormal price increase easily causes disfavor for tourists when the tourism industry has just recovered, the important thing now is to retain tourists, so tourism businesses must struggle to keep tour prices stable for tourists Thus, it is possible to pull tourists back after the epidemic season For example, in

2022 the cost of passenger car rides increased by 15-25% 45-seater cars running from Hanoi

to Got Ferry to Cat Ba cost from 8-8.5 million VND/return trip After covid19, the price increased from 9-9.5 million VND/return trip This time up to 10.5-11 million VND/return trip Thus, tourist transport alone increased from: 30-35%

Secondly, not only the price of transportation increased, but accommodation and food services also increased Specifically, the previous popular meal of tourists was from 150,000-

170,000 VND/person/full meal But by this time, each meal has reached a new price of 200,000-220,000 VND/serving In addition, a great burden on travel businesses is the increase

in air tickets According to the survey, domestic ticket prices increased by 2.5-4 million

VND/roundtrip, excluding peak days A series of other accommodation services such as: laundry increased from 20-25%, toothpaste, shower gel A 10% increase caused hotel prices

to rise Therefore, now not only tourists are concerned about rising costs in tourism, but also

travel businesses to compete with domestic visitors, only about 5-7% instead of 10% as before

In recent years, Vietnam has been considered one of the ideal destinations of some international tourist sources The source of inbound tourists brings a great source of revenue for tourism from travelers' travel spending However, in the past three years, the number of international tourists to Vietnam has been interrupted due to the impact of post-covid and the

war situation between Russia and Ukraine

After Vietnam's tourism is taking the first steps in recovering development and

welcoming international tourists back, the war between Russia and Ukraine has once again

made the international visitor market to Vietnam stagnant and tend to reduce the number of visitors In particular, the tourism industry is worried that prolonged hostilities and economic

difficulties will slow down the recovery of Russian tourist flows and the international tourism market In 2022, arrivals by air reached 3.277 million, accounting for 89.5% of international

arrivals to Vietnam and 29.5 times higher than the previous year Arrivals from Asia reached 2.595 million, 19.5 times higher than the previous year; visitors from Europe reached 508,400