macroeconomics group assignment collecting data and analyzing vietnams economic growth in the period 2016 2021 and the first 3 quarters of 2022

Investment at current prices by types of ownership in the period 2016-2021 Investment at current prices by types of ownership in the period 2016 -2021... The chart shows the volatility i

NATIONAL ECONOMICS UNIVERSITYNEU BUSINESS SCHOOL

- 

 -MACROECONOMICS GROUP ASSIGNMENT

Collecting data and analyzing Vietnam's economic growth in the period 2021 and the first 3 quarters of 2022

Nguyễn Hải Anh – 11219017Đỗ Quang Đăng – 11219047Hồ Sĩ Minh – 11219093

Phạm Thị Mỹ Ngọc – 11219014Lê Kiều Oanh – 11219111Nguyễn Mai Dương – 11219042Vũ Tú Oanh – 11219113

Lê Thu Hường – 11219066Lê Thị Thùy Dương – 11219014

Ha Noi, October 2022

1.1.Investment in the period 2016-2021 -4

1.2.Investment in the first 3 quarters of 2022 -7

2.State budget and insurance - 8

2.1.Accumulation of state budget revenue and expenditure in the period 2016-2021 -8

2.2.State budget deficit for the period 2016-2021 -9

2.3.Accumulation of state budget revenue and expenditure in the third quarter of 2022 -10

5.3.Passenger transport in the first three quarters of 2022 -26

5.4.Freight transport in the first three quarters of 2022 -27

II.Economic Growth - 27

1.GDP Growth Rate in the period 2016-2021 -27

2.GDP Growth Rate in the first three quarters of 2022 -28

In the context of the world and the region, there are factors of advantages anddisadvantages intertwined The Asia-Pacific region remains the dynamic developmentcenter of the world economy ASEAN's central role of connectivity in regionalinstitutions continues to be confirmed, but challenges remain Peace and developmentcooperation is a big trend, but extreme nationalism, ethnic and religious conflicts, andterrorist activities continue to increase Major countries strengthen their militarypower and strategic competition in the region is increasingly fierce Territorialdisagreements, especially those in the East Sea, have become fierce and complicated.Science and technology develop very rapidly along with globalization andinternational integration, which has a strong impact on the economic development ofcountries The implementation of existing free trade agreements and participation innew-generation free trade agreements, along with the formation of the ASEANCommunity in 2015 open up many favorable opportunities for development but alsoset out many difficulties and challenges for the period from 2016-2020 The re-emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic has tightened the labor market, disruptedsupply chains, and caused - growth to slow down in 2021 Growth will flourish in2022 when many service activities are active come back The weather conditions arerelatively favorable for winter-spring rice to grow and develop, but the complicateddevelopments of the Covid-19 epidemic have greatly affected the production andconsumption of agricultural products Livestock production is in recovery but facingdifficulties due to the high price of animal feed The development of forestryproduction, wood processing, and export in the first months of 2022 has manypositive signs.

BODYI.Growth factors

1 Investment

1.1.Investment in the period 2016-2021

a Investment at current prices by types of ownership in the period 2016-2021

Investment at current prices by types of ownership in the period 2016 -2021

Figure 1 The chart shows the volatility in investment at current prices by types ofownership in the period 2016-2021 (Billions dong)

Overall, the state, non-state, and foreign-investedsectors of the entire society's totalinvestment capital at present prices is modest but has experienced sustained growth from2016 to 2019.

By 2020, due to the effects of the Covid outbreak, realized social investment capital atcurrent prices will increase by 5.7% to VND 2164.5 trillion This is the lowest growthrate between 2011 and 2020 because of the COVID-19 epidemic's detrimental effects onall commercial and manufacturing activities In which the non-state sector reached 972.2trillion dong, equaling 44.9% and growing by 3.1%; the state sector reached 729 trillionVND, accounting for 33.7% of the total capital and up 14.5% from 2019; and the foreigndirect investment sector reached 463.3 trillion dong, equaling 21.4% and declining 1.3%.

In 2021, the realized investment capital of the whole society at current prices willreach VND 2,891.9 trillion, up 3.2% over the previous year, of which: State capital willreach VND 713.6 trillion, accounting for 24.7% total capital and decreased by 2.9% overthe previous year; the non-state sector reached 1720.2 trillion dong, equaling 59.5% andincreasing by 7.2%; FDI sector reached 458.1 trillion dong, equaling 15.8% anddecreasing 1.1% Although this is the lowest increase in many years, it is a positive resultin the context of the complicated developments of the COVID-19 pandemic in thecountry and in the world.

In short, the Covid pandemic epidemic had a negative impact on the economy,delaying business and production operations and causing investment capital growth,albeit at a very low level.

b Foreign direct investment projects licensed by kinds of economic activity in theperiod 2016-2021

 Number of projects

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Electricity, gas, steam, and air

Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor 514 619 788 1140 722 507

vehicles and motorcycles

 Total registered capital (Mil USD)

Electricity, gas,steam, and airconditioning supply

Wholesale and retailtrade; repair of motor

vehicles andmotorcycles

Total registered capital of foreign direct investment projects licensed by kinds of economic activity in the period 2016-2021

ManufacturingReal estate activities

Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply

Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles

Over the 2016–2021 period, foreign investors made investments in 19 differentindustries, although the processing and manufacturing sector has consistently drawn themost of their attention Additionally, industries receiving foreign direct investment areparticularly prominent in sectors like real estate, wholesale, retail, or power productionand distribution.

With a total registered capital of 115.2 billion USD, the manufacturing and processingindustry was the sector that received the most interest from investors during this time.With 5860 projects, this industry has the most investment projects overall With a total

registered capital of 26.2 billion USD, real estate came in second The industries that getthe most FDI are, generally speaking, those that deal with processing technology, realestate, electricity production, and distribution, etc.

1.2.Investment in the first 3 quarters of 2022

a Investment at current prices by types of ownership in the first 3 quarters of 2022At current exchange rates, the amount of Investment at current prices by types ofownership is projected to be VND 2,130.3 trillion in the first nine months of 2022, anincrease of 12.5% over the same period in 2017 This rise is attributable to themanufacturing sector's robust recovery In which the amount of foreign direct investmentin Vietnam reached 15.4 billion USD, an increase of 16.3% over the same time period,and the highest level for the first nine months of any year from 2018 to the present

Investment at current prices by types of ownership was estimated to be 833.8 trilliondong in the third quarter of 2022 at current prices, an increase of 18.1% over the sameperiod in the previous year This figure includes capital from the state, which increasedby 27.8%, the non-state sector, which increased by 11% to reach 491.2 trillion dong, andthe foreign direct investment sector, which increased by 34.5% to reach 126.1 trilliondong.

We can see from the data above that there have been many good improvements in theproduction, business, and investment situations The majority of industries, fields, andregions are seeing a recovery and growth trend In order to help businesses overcomeobstacles, create favorable conditions for them to limit damage, maintain and expandoutput, and maintain and develop commercial operations, the government is alsoimplementing support packages for socio-economic recovery.

b Foreign direct investment projects licensed by kinds of economic activity in the first 3 quarters of 2022

In the first nine months of 2022, Vietnam received an estimated 15.43 billion USD inforeign direct investment, an increase of 16.3% over the same period in 2017 Thequantity of foreign direct investment capital realized in the last five years has not beenhigher in nine months than it is now In which the production and distribution ofelectricity, gas, hot water, steam, and air conditioners reached USD 1.15 billion,

accounting for 7.5% of the total realized foreign direct investment capital, while theprocessing and manufacturing industry reached USD 12.05 billion, accounting for 78.1%.There are also definite indicators of improvement when you look at the number ofprojects that were filed for foreign investment in the first nine months of 2022: 1,355 newprojects around the nation have received investment registration certificates, an increaseof 11.8% from the previous period 769 projects, up 13.4%, are registered to adjustinvestment capital during the year 2021.

This unmistakably confirms that foreign investors have faith in Vietnam's businessenvironment, view it as a safe and alluring investment destination, and continue toincrease investment when Vietnam adopts a new policy to lure investors and push for theeconomy's reopening following almost two years of restrictions due to the Covid-19epidemic.

2 State budget and insurance

2.1.Accumulation of state budget revenue and expenditure in the period 2016-2021

Figure 3 The chart shows the total state budget revenue and expenditure as of December31, 2021 and the years 2016,2017,2018,2019,2020 (Trillion VND)

Total state budget revenue in the period from 2016-2019 has grown steadily year byyear However, in 2020, due to the serious impact of the Covid pandemic, the total statebudget revenue decreased Decreased by VND 43.2 trillion (down 2.8%) and this numberhas increased by VND 60.7 trillion (8.5%) in 2021 - the beginning of economic recovery.

State budget expenditure has also grown steadily year by year And especially, 2018was the year when the total state budget expenditure increased the highest in 6 years,increasing by 153.4 trillion VND (19.3%) The fact that the total state budget expenditureis larger than the total revenue leads to the fact that during the 2016-2021 period, Vietnamis always in a state of overspending.

2.2.State budget deficit for the period 2016-2021

Figure 4 State budget deficit as of December 31, 2021 and the years2016,2017,2018,2019

Although the state budget deficit in 2016-2021 has increased and decreased year byyear, this situation has always existed up to the present time and has not shown any signsof improvement And especially in 2020 as mentioned above, due to the serious influenceof Covid, the state has to spend on many issues such as social security, health care, butthe overspending rate increased significantly ( 76.7 trillion VND).

Objective reasons: Due to a cyclical economic downturn The unstable situation ofworld security and complicated developments of natural disasters will also increase theneed for spending on defense and social order and security, increasing the need for statebudget spending to overcome the consequences of disaster.

Subjective causes: Unreasonable management and administration of the state budgetis reflected in the poor assessment and exploitation of revenue sources; There are stillmany shortcomings in the allocation and use of the state budget, causing losses and wasteof state financial resources.

2.3.Accumulation of state budget revenue and expenditure in the third quarter of 2022

Figure 5 Accumulation of state budget revenues and expenditures as of the third quarterof 2022

At the regular press conference of the Ministry of Finance, held on September 29,leaders of the Ministry of Finance said that the total state budget revenue in 9 months wasestimated at 1,327.3 trillion VND, equal to 94% of the estimate, up 22% compared withthe same period in 2021 Based on the implementation of state budget revenue in the firstnine months of 2022, the Ministry of Planning and Investment's economic forecast in

2022 is expected to grow 7-7.5% State budget revenue is estimated to exceed theestimate.

In the opposite direction, the total state budget expenditure in 9 months reached1,086.3 trillion VND, equaling 60.8% of the estimate, up 5.4% over the same period in2021 State budget expenditure tasks 9 monthly is carried out according to the estimate,meeting the needs of socio-economic development, national defense, security, and statemanagement; ensuring funding for overcoming consequences of natural disasters,epidemics and social security spending tasks, taking care of beneficiaries of salaries,pensions and social allowances from the state budget.

Figure 6 Total insurance revenue by three sectors: Social insurance, health insurance,unemployment insurance in the period 2016-2021

Figure 7 Total insurance expenditures by three sectors: Social insurance, healthinsurance, unemployment insurance in the period 2016-2021

Social insurance is the insurance sector with the most participants and unemploymentinsurance with the fewest participants Total insurance revenue in the past 6 years haschanged significantly This number increased by 53.1% (97.4 trillion VND) in 2017 butthen decreased by 41.8 trillion VND the following year and continued to increase steadilyuntil reaching 433.1 trillion VND VND in 2021

Total insurance spending grew at a steady rate from 2016-2021 and grew at a muchhigher rate in 2020 But then in 2021, this figure decreased significantly (16.7 %)

Especially during the Covid period, the number of people buying insurance has alsoincreased significantly Insurance enterprises have promoted forms of insurancedistribution, deployed online insurance products, diversified premium collectionchannels; while increasing investment in technology, building a digital ecosystem ,helping customers to be proactive in accessing and participating in insurance services,this is an opportunity for the insurance market to continue to grow.

The total accumulated collection of Social Insurance, Health Insurance, andUnemployment Insurance by the end of September 2022 is estimated at nearly VND

308,000 billion, up 8.67% over the same period in 2021 The insurance market can beexpected Insurance will continue to grow more than in 2021.

3 Agriculture, forestry, and seafood

a Food crops

Grain food production and rice production in 2016-2021

Rice production

The production of food crops in the period 2016-2021 has a rather complicatedsituation as it continuously increases and decreases, the reason is because of abnormalclimatic weather causing natural disasters, storms, floods, droughts and besides Therewas also the appearance of the Covid-19 pandemic, which broke the chain of export,import and consumption of agricultural products.

However, there are still positive records such as the growth of grain food production

varieties, an increase of 1063.2 thousand tons compared to 2017 2021 also marked therecovery of grain agriculture, an increase of 975.8 thousand tons compared to 2020.

The winter-spring rice crop in 2022 will reach 19.98 million tons, a decrease of 649thousand tons compared to the winter-spring crop in 2021, mainly due to the reduction ofthe sown area to switch to non-agricultural land for urbanization and to grow crops.perennial crops or switch to aquaculture for higher economic efficiency Most of thecultivated area of cash crops decreased compared to the same period last year due tounfavorable weather conditions, inundation in many areas, and economic efficiency fromcrops such as corn, sweet potato, and peanuts is not high, so farmers reduce production.

b Industrials plan

Production of industrial crops in the period 2016-2021