First quarter of 2020:The Covid-19 epidemic that appeared in Vietnam at the end of January 2020has so far directly affected the labor market participation of workers.Unemployment has ris
Trang 1VIETNAM INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOIUNIVERSITY OF LANGUAGES AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
ASSIGNMENTMACROECONOMICS
TOPIC: Analyze the unemployment situation of Vietnam in the last 5 yearsand analyze the measures used by the government to reduceunemployment
Lecturer : Mr Hoang Anh Tuan
Group 3: : Ngô Th0y Linh
Trang 2Class : KTTC.20E6PREAMBLE
Today, with the advancement of science and technology, the world has not made a leap in many aspects, making the human civilization text more and more new In recent years, along with the rise of the world, our country has also achieved certain achievements in science and technology in industries such as tourism, services, exports, etc But besides these successes That, we also have a lot of issues that need to be taken care of and actions taken to minimize such as social evils, unemployment, transportation, etc There are too many problems in today's society that need to be solved decisive decision, but maybe the problem of reuse and top concern today is unemployment.
Unemployment - one of the chronic problems of the economy Any country, no matter how developed, still has failures, it's just a matter of low or high failure Vietnam's economy in recent years has encountered many difficulties and is influenced by the global economy, with the unemployment rate in our country increasing Unemployment leads to many problems for society such as: increasing social evils, discrimination between rich and poor, reducing the economy, etc Although Vietnam has made significant changes in the economy, the problem is solved and creating jobs for workers is still a dilemma of today's society.
With the topic "Analysis of unemployment in Vietnam in the last 5 years and measures that the government uses to reduce failure", group 3 hopes to learn more about unemployment issues Measures to reduce unemployment of our country to have the most accurate knowledge and understanding for these issues.
Research on object and scope: Unemployment in Vietnam in the last 5 years (2011 -2015)
Research method: data collection, synthesis, analysis and evaluation.
The group of 3 of us would like to sincerely thank Ms Ngo Hai Thanh – Lecturer of Macroeconomics I for dedicatedly guiding us throughout the process of learning, learning, discussing and building topics We hope that we can receive your comments and evaluations after presenting the topic of discussion so that our topic is more complete.
The discussion consists of 4 main topics:
Part I: The basis of reasoning
Part II: Unemployment in Vietnam in the last 5 years (2011 - 2015)
Part III: Measures the Government of Vietnam Uses to Reduce Unemployment
Trang 4PART I: THE BASIS OF REASONINGConcepts and classifications of unemployment
What is unemployment and unemployment rate
- The social labor force is a part of the population consisting of people of
working age who are able to work, have labor needs (and those who are out of age but in fact engaged in labor).
- Unemployed are people in the social workforce who are out of work and are
actively looking for work.
- The unemployment rate is the percentage of the unemployed compared to
the total number of people in the labor force.
- Formula calculation
:
Labor force = Employed + Unemployed
1 Classification of unemployment
Unemployment is a complex phenomenon that needs to be classified in order to understand it It can be divided into the following categories: 1.1 Phân theo loại hình thất nghiệp
- Unemployment divided by gender (male - female) - Unemployment divided by age (age - occupation) - Unemployment divided by territory (urban, rural, ) - Unemployment divided by ethnicity, race
1.2 Divided by reasons of unemployment
- Quit their jobs: Those who voluntarily asked to quit their jobs for different
reasons such as low wages, not suitable for the profession,
- Job loss: People who are dismissed by production and business units for
Trang 5- Enter new: People who are first-time additions to the workforce, but have
not yet found a job, are actively looking for work.
- Re-entry: People who have left the workforce now want to return to work but have not yet found a job.
1 Feces by origin of unemployment
- Temporary unemployment occurs when some workers are in the process of
finding work or looking for other work better, tailored to their own needs.
- - Structural unemployment: Occurs due to the mismatch between the
structure of supply and demand of labor in terms of skills, occupations, locations,
These two types of unemployment occur only in one part of the labor market.
- - Cyclical unemployment (unemployment due to lack of demand): Occurs
when the overall demand for labor decreases The main reason is the decline in total demand in the economy and associated with the recession period of the economic cycle This unemployment occurs across the entire labor market.
- - Unemployment due to out-of-market factors: Occurs when wages are fixed
higher than the actual balanced wages of the labor market This type of unemployment is influenced by socio-political factors.
1.3 According to modern analysis of unemployment
- Voluntary unemployment: Only those who "voluntarily" do not want to work
due to employment and salary is not in line with the desired salary.
- Involuntary unemployment: Only those who want to work at the current
salary but are not hired.
Trang 6- Natural unemployment is the level of unemployment when the labor market
is in equilibrium There, wages and prices are reasonable, the markets are achieve long-term balance.
Describe the types of unemployment
Trang 7EF is unemployment according to classical theory, FG is natural unemployment, EG = EF + FG is voluntary unemployment
Natural unemployment is always voluntary unemployment, but voluntary unemployment is not necessarily natural unemployment
3 Causes of unemployment
Workers need time to find the job that works best for them.
- Due to the change in labor demand between businesses - Due to the change in the working needs of employees
- There are always new people entering or re-entering the workforce The excess of supply versus labor demand.
- Due to the Minimum Wage Law, the impact of trade unions.- Due to the changing economic structure.
- Due to the cyclicality of the economy.
2 Impact of unemployment
Trang 8• Economic perspective:
- The economy is underperforming.
- The social labor force is not mobilized into production and business activities
increases; is the waste of social labor - the basic factor for socio-economic development
- The economy is in recession due to the lower-than-potential total real national
income; deterioration due to lack of investment capital (because the budget capital is reduced due to tax losses, due to having to support workers who lose their jobs )
- The cause of the economy comes (the brink) of inflation.
Social perspective:
- It is easy to create many social evils.
- The government has to pay a lot of unemployment benefits.
Political angle:
- Workers have reduced confidence in government policy.
3 Measures to reduce the unemployment rate
For natural unemployment:
- Increase the operation of job placement services.- Enhance training and retraining of resources.- Cut unemployment benefits.
- Facilitate labor migration.
For voluntary unemployment:
Trang 9- Create better jobs and wages at all levels of wages that attract more
- Organize vocational training programs and organize well the labor
For cyclical unemployment:
- Apply fiscal and monetary policies to increase total demand to stimulate
enterprises to expand production scale, attract more worke
Trang 10PART II: UNEMPLOYMENT IN VIETNAM IN THELAST 5 YEARS
(2017 – 2021))
Unemployment is one of the four most important factors of a country (high growth, low inflation, low unemployment, and balance of payments with balances) Reducing unemployment, maintaining stability and developing the economy is also one of the economic goals set by our government In the last five years, Vietnam's economic growth rate has always remained quite high and stable: Gross domestic product (GDP) in the first 6 months of 2015 is estimated to increase by 6.28% (compared to the same period in 2014 is 5.22% and in 2013 is 4.90%) This has strengthened Vietnam's position as one of the fastest growing economies in the Asia-Pacific region However, besides the recovery and economic development, Vietnam also faces many difficulties, especially the issue of unemployment and employment settlement According to Minister of Education and Training Pham Vu Luan: "Although in the period of 2010-2014, the number of workers with university degrees and employees with jobs increased, but the unemployed also increased higher than the number of graduates and the number of jobs While employed people increased by only 38%, the unemployed doubled in this group of workers." Indeed, although the unemployment rate of our country over the years has been volatile, but it has decreased only slightly and is now trending up again (The unemployment rate in 2012 was 1.8%, down 0.5% compared to 2011 In 2013, 2014 and 2015, the unemployment rate was 2.77%, 2.08%, 2.31%, respectively – all increased a lot compared to 2012 Through analysis from many aspects, it has been shown that the reason for the high unemployment rate is mainly
Trang 11due to the lack of quality labor and local labor supply and demand imbalances that still occur regularly, causing the unemployment rate to increase, putting pressure
Trang 12on the problem of solving jobs.
Statistics on unemployment and underemployment rates from 2017 to 2021 The following are detailed analyses of the unemployment situation in Vietnam in the years from 2017 to 2021.
Before Covid 19 exploded
I.Unemployment in Vietnam in 2017
The unemployment rate in 2017 fell by 0.06% from 2.30% in 2016
- The labor force aged 15 and over of the country is estimated at 54.52 million people, an increase of 162.2 thousand people compared to 2016.
Workers 15 years and older working in economic sectors in 2017 were estimated at 53.7 million, an increase of 416.1 thousand compared to 2016.
- The unemployment rate in urban areas is 3.18%; The rural area is 1.78% Lowest in the last four years The youth unemployment rate (Aged 15-24) is 7.51%, of which the urban area is 11.75%; The rural area is 5.87%
- The underemployment rate of workers of working age in 2017 was 1.63%, lower than the 1.66% in 2016, of which the urban area was 0.85% (0.73 in 2016); rural areas were 2.07% (2.12% in 2016).
In general, Vietnam's unemployment rate in 2017 tends to decrease but not much
II.Unemployment in Vietnam in 2018
- Although the global unemployment rate has stabilized, shortages of quality work remain widespread, as the world economy still does not create enough jobs.
- The whole country has more than 1.1 million unemployed people; in which the urban area accounted for 48.3% and the number of women accounted for 51.1% of the total unemployed.
Trang 13- The unemployment rate in working age (men aged 15-59 years old and women aged 15-54 years old) of Vietnam in 2018 was 2.19%, of which it was 3.10% in urban areas, and in urban areas rural area is 73%
-The number of unemployed 15-24 year olds accounted for 44.17% of the total unemployed
-The youth unemployment rate is 5.42 times higher than the unemployment rate for those aged 25 and over At the national level, the unemployment rate of young women is higher than that of young men It is now 7.9% vs 6.05%
III UNEMPLOYMENT IN VIETNAM IN 2019
Before the Covid 19 pandemic, in 2019 Vietnam had the number of unemployed people and unemployment cabinets remained low and decreased slightly compared to 2018.
- According to the General Statistics Office, the country's overall unemployment rate was 1.98% (the first quarter was 2.00%; the second quarter was 1.98%; the third quarter was 1.99%; the fourth quarter was 1.98%) The overall unemployment rate of urban areas is 2.93%, and rural areas are 1.51%.
- The underemployment rate of workers in the age group in 2019 is estimated at
1.26% (the first quarter of 2019 was 1.21%; the second and third quarters were 1.38%; the fourth quarter was estimated at 1.07%), of which the urban area was 0.67%; rural areas are 1.57%
- The country has more than 1.1 million workers aged 15 and over who are
unemployed Of these, 47.3% of workers were unemployed in urban areas (equivalent to 529.9 thousand people) In terms of gender, male unemployed workers make up the larger number.
-VI UNEMPLOYMENT IN VIETNAM IN 2020
When the Covid 19 pandemic broke out: The Covit-19 pandemic that appeared in
Vietnam directly affected the labor and employment situation in all industries and in every region of the country from rural to urban areas In particular, the most pronounced impact is in the second quarter of 2020 when the situation is complicated, many dangerous infections in the community and especially the application of regulations on social distancing increase the unemployment rate The economy is stagnant, many businesses have to stop, relax or quit their jobs This has caused the labor-age unemployment rate to rise to a record high in the last
Trang 14five years, along with the fact that many workers are leaving the labor market.
Figure 1 The unemployment rate in the working age in the quarter of 2019-2021 in urban and rural areas Source: The Bank Times.
1 First quarter of 2020:
The Covid-19 epidemic that appeared in Vietnam at the end of January 2020has so far directly affected the labor market participation of workers.Unemployment has risen, and the underemployment rate forunderemployed workers of the age group is at its highest level in fiveyears.
The number of unemployed people of working age in the first quarter of 2020 was
nearly 1.1 million, an increase of 26.1 thousand people compared to the previous quarter and an increase of 26.8 thousand people compared to the same period last
year The unemployment rate of working age in the first quarter of 2020 was
2.22%, up 0.07 percentage points from the previous quarter and up 0.05 percentage points compared to the same period last year The age unemployment rate of urban areas was 3.18%, up 0.08 percentage points from the previous quarter and the same period last year; this rate of rural areas was 1.73%, up 0.06 percentage points q-o-q and up 0.03 percentage points year-on-year.
Trang 15The number of unemployed young people (aged 15 to 24) it is estimated at
492.9 thousand people That's 44.1% of the total unemployed The youth unemployment rate in the first quarter of 2020 is estimated at 7.0%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous quarter and up 0.56 percentage points compared to the same period last year The youth unemployment rate is 5.4 times higher than the unemployment rate of the adult population (those aged 25 and over).
2 Quý II năm 2020:
Workers' employment was most pronounced in the second quarter of 2020when the covid-19 situation was complicated, many infections in thecommunity appeared and especially the application of regulations onsocial distancing The unemployment rate is the highest in 10 years.Number of unemployed in the second quarter working age was nearly 1.3 million
people, an increase of 192.8 thousand people compared to the previous quarter and an increase of 221 thousand people compared to the same period last year.
Unemployment rate in the working age in the second quarter of 2020 was 2.73%,
an increase of 0.51 percent q-o-q and an increase of 0.57 percentage points over the same period last year The ageless unemployment rate of urban areas was 4.46%, up 1.28 percentage points q-o-q and up 1.36 percentage points year-on-year; This is the quarter with the highest unemployment rate in urban areas in the past 10 years.
The number of unemployed young people (aged 15 to 24) in the second quarter of
2020 about 410.3 thousand people, accounting for 30.7% of the total unemployed The youth unemployment rate in the second quarter of 2020 was 6.98%, equivalent to the previous quarter and increased by 0.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year Youth unemployment in the second quarter increased due to the overall impact of the Covid-19 epidemic.
The unemployment rate of working age of the group of workers with technical qualifications from intermediate level or higher in the second quarter of 2020 decreased compared to the previous quarter and increased compared to the same period last year Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in the second quarter of 2020 of the group of workers with low technical qualifications (primary) or no technical qualifications increased compared to the previous quarter and compared to the same period last year This shows that when the economy is in shock, low-skilled or unqualified workers have more difficulty in terms of job opportunities than workers with intermediate and higher technical qualifications.
Trang 16Figure 2: The unemployment rate of working age in the second quarter of the2011-2020 period is divided by urban and rural areas Source: Vietnambiz.
https://vietnambiz.vn/ti-le-that-nghiep-tai-viet-nam-cao-nhat-trong-10-nam-qua-2020071023171888.htm
1.Third quarter of 2020:
Sau khi n5n After the global economy as well as Vietnam almost bottomedout in the second quarter, by the third quarter of 2020 there were alittle more positive signs The number of unemployed as well as theunemployment rate decreased slightly compared to the previousquarter but remained at the highest level compared to the same periodin previous years.
The number of unemployed people of working age in the third quarter of 2020
was more than 1.2 million, down 63.0 thousand people compared to the previous quarter and up 148.2 thousand people compared to the same period last year The unemployment rate of working age in the third quarter of 2020 was 2.50%, down 0.23 percentage points from the previous quarter and up 0.33 percentage points compared to the same period last year The rate in urban areas was 4.0%, down 0.46 percentage points q-o-q and up 0.89 percentage points year-on-year.
The number of unemployed young people (aged 15 to 24) In the third quarter of
2020 about 410.3 thousand people, accounting for 30.7% of the total unemployed The youth unemployment rate in the third quarter of 2020 was