Understanding Probability: Chance Rules in Everyday Life pptx

[...]... been made self-contained for a first course in probability by adding more explanations and examples in almost every chapter Also, the second part has been expanded by adding an introductory chapter on Markov chains, particularly suited for students in computer science and engineering In the same style as the other chapters, the topic of Markov chains is taught by presenting interesting and realistic examples... theory His text Van Rekeningh in Spelen van Geluck (On Reasoning in Games of Chance) , published in 1660, had enormous in uence on later developments in probability theory (this text had already been translated into Latin under the title De Ratiociniis de Ludo Aleae in 1657) It was Huygens who originally introduced the concept of expected value, which plays such an important role in probability theory... unpainted number on the ticket Do you think the probability of at least one winner in the Andorran Lottery is significantly different from the probability of at least one winner in Spain? What is your estimate of the probability of a win occurring in each of the lotteries? Question 4 A lotto problem (§4.2.3) In each drawing of Lotto 6/45, six distinct numbers are drawn from the numbers 1, , 45 In. .. average, it rained 7 of 30 days in June, with no definite pattern for which particular days it rained Assuming things do not change, then the probability of rain on June 15 7 the following year has the numerical value 30 In this case, the past relative frequency of rainy days in June is used to assign a numerical value to the probability of rain on a given day in June during the following year Put another... paid to collecting exercises that appeal to the understanding and creativity of the reader rather than requiring the reader to plug numbers into formulas Several of the examples and exercises in this book are inspired by material from the website of Chance News.” This website contains a wealth of material on probability and statistics Finally, the text is enlivened with cartoons combining chance and humor,... A coincidence problem (§4.3) Two people, perfect strangers to one another, both living in the same city of one million inhabitants, meet each other Each has approximately 500 acquaintances in the city Assuming that for each of the two people, the acquaintances represent a random sampling of the city’s various population sectors, what is the probability of the two people having an acquaintance in common?... approach of interweaving intuition and formal mathematics This book, about probability as it applies to our daily lives, is written very much in the same spirit It introduces the reader to the world of probability in an informal way It is not written in a theorem-proof style Instead, it aims to teach the novice the concepts of probability through the use of motivating and insightful examples In the book,... than three, in order to have about an equal chance of rolling at least one six Modern probability theory Although probability theory was initially the product of questions posed by gamblers about their odds in the various games of chance, in its modern form, it has far outgrown any boundaries associated with the gaming room These days, probability theory plays an increasingly greater roll in many fields... of the probability tree concept will be considered, including the famous Monty Hall dilemma and the test paradox In addition, we will also look at the Bayes formula in Chapter 6 This formula is a descriptive rule for revising probabilities in light of new information Among other things, the Bayes rule is used in legal argumentation and in formulating medical diagnoses for specific illnesses This eighteenth... success rate in free throw shots Assuming that the outcomes of all free throws are independent from one another, what is the probability that, within a sequence of 20 shots, the player can score five baskets in a row? 11 12 Probability questions Question 3 A scratch-and-win lottery (§4.2.3) A scratch-and-win lottery dispenses 10,000 lottery tickets per week in Andorra and ten million in Spain In both countries, . optimization for international journals, including Applied Probability and Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences. Understanding Probability Chance Rules in Everyday Life Second. Rekeningh in Spelen van Geluck (On Reasoning in Games of Chance) , published in 1660, had enormous in uence on later developments in probabil- ity theory (this text had already been translated into. by presenting interesting and realistic examples. A solutions manual containing solutions to all of the exercises was prepared for instructors. Finally, educational software supporting this book