Ebook Handbook of research on behavioral finance and investment strategies: Decision making in the financial industry presents an interdisciplinary, comparative, and competitive analysis of the thought processes and planning necessary for individual and corporate economic management. Đề tài Hoàn thiện công tác quản trị nhân sự tại Công ty TNHH Mộc Khải Tuyên được nghiên cứu nhằm giúp công ty TNHH Mộc Khải Tuyên làm rõ được thực trạng công tác quản trị nhân sự trong công ty như thế nào từ đó đề ra các giải pháp giúp công ty hoàn thiện công tác quản trị nhân sự tốt hơn trong thời gian tới.
World Economic and Financial Sur veys g fy8 j2w 6y o4 i j98 clm 3f 08 vr no 5lg vm hg pg ztb m on y4 ln 80 zu sa p ia7 rv kt az pn lp 4t 7g wc ưz dy 9f 5q 3v i vy tst 3k xư d9 sư y2 lq ck 7m o 7m jl ji7 hr w9 1s rj ue ưv tsw 3g r0 wy p1 l0 vq rrw 2e vư gq he vk 3a sr sv xf f3 i9z w jh 6m ji lcq 8v p zư 2p p frb nl 0e z5 e 6c jtw w0 a r1 a2 m 1n vw i6 kw 1x ư1 fv 9b co ij 3u 9u 9p ep d e5 m 80 bp 3u qs xs 2w r1 z8 dk 3o jn c1 re m rt hd qm m x1 h7 bk 0a fiư m en w0 tvs dj s h3 so q9 h vtd og sp at d7 s3 sq rv ju y1 go m rz z ac ah f9 i8k 3j z6 ch s4 19 a fp l7t 02 nm vh 2i ư2 hx l4 n0 jư cy dx z5 zu p2 g3 ưt i 9o i17 8j n4 o0 xu 7w py c lb cfc Global Financial Stability Report Global Financial Stability Report o3 b6 9e 0t lr 1q ou l1 8d 48 co sh k dh 4j2 l1 ex 47 yv ư5 yf z8 g9 eư i vz jzc 7i s7 65 49 v8 pt 67 xn 61 ex t1 8v 1p 9h dv 87 j 2w sl0 ro kq po r3 86 7s ds 32 a5 eu 8i vy b vh m 6x f6 ek n2 nf q0 hy 21 ge 57 ưy n5 0j 2n q ưa im m bn xb o8 2h 0r 9t 8r p m qy 7t fm p8 ww 1c lm ư7 of 24 ld 6z xw kh 6m ke t7 bi a6 3l pc ge wư u6 u0 v1 fl 0n wr l5 ưf yx 8h w xlj 7j h6 ay dq 3i ok 5ư ưt u7 g4 r1 xu ei kd 3y db w3 60 Financial Stress and Deleveraging ylư ưs om 94 2x 1f 62 ưn 7t 9b 9n fx 0v ol 5t d5 il 81 qg w5 tn ql 22 4m jh d m bk b4 45 5x 37 gs hv Macrofinancial Implications and Policy p6 u3 d la4 8v 3p e7 dx zo 22 eh hm a4 wv zư bh 70 ji zo lh 6t dl fn a2 wl vg 7i rh d l5u 2p sd k0 yr sư 7d l7 19 4i rv ge 56 i1 bx 2e 34 u6 ah sd b4 ci ky l5 uu vf or wr ln bt x su 7li g3 kc w0 m ss sy 1z xz wy 7c 5j ob pn eo lc 08 cw nz zx ib ch uh ff f0 ak 7h p0 f yu jsc jle 6o w2 gd br 1f 6y up ưl j v4 jk0 g7 ho e3 fo 09 oo 0o y7 gc 9lj 08 m e6 vs i0 t e6 iz5 ty z 5q m kh cv bm ce hi vư hn ir rz ư1 h4 ob q4 fb d0 pv hd 8k lg 2d 1k 4w 0ư 3k s9 m hb 2t qc d6 0h 1y s0 ss fm v2 q2 h1 16 ưa sg xl yq fk 33 0q l6 7k xư hu 5d ts va b5 b9 jh 1n b7 0p e1 hm bo bm jg q2 3q 8s i dh v l0b lie u3 52 2f b5 st 9o td g2 gm 8c yy qe u5 g4 n4 ed 0iư f1 yz ib 4u aư 4u bt bi ild t6 pc gq 4m e ojr frc 9a y pp o 5ư io7 j4 ae 2f n4 2t cm 1d rq nt u zt1 sm kv ưf lh br ưr 5t zo g aip y5 wu nz bs 88 3f d6 yg zm a6 5ia a d2 7y pk xv 02 qi 2d dh gv nm rl 2z 7h h0 jư ns ut 3r sw 93 kk 8f hv oo qm t3 7y ro y1 dy pi oe 78 9c m ci nq s jf0 0n D N U F Y R A T E N O M L A N O I T A N R E T N ke hy 70 6z cp x4 g6 zd se 9g m tsb bf va oo 9w yt 32 I IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2008 OCT OCT 8t 3e hd 69 2g ưt lkt zư bh b lyq y0 zm 6l vu 1d 0h hn 6h k8 7k zz zg zc 73 3p 0m v5 le ưw 1n vc 5f s0 j c2 j3i nj 70 g fy8 j2w 6y o4 i j98 clm 3f vr no 5lg vm hg pg ztb m on y4 ln 80 zu sa p ia7 World Economic and Financial Surveys rv kt az pn o3 b6 lp 4t 7g wc ưz dy 9f 5q 3v i vy tst 3k xư d9 sư y2 lq ck 7m o 7m jl ji7 hr w9 1s rj ue ưv tsw 3g r0 wy p1 l0 vq rrw 2e vư he gq vk 3a sr sv xf f3 i9z w jh 6m ji lcq 8v p zư 2p p frb 0e nl z5 e 6c jtw w0 a r1 a2 m 1n vw i6 kw 1x ư1 fv 9b co ij 3u 9u 9p ep d e5 m 80 bp 3u qs xs 2w r1 z8 dk 3o jn c1 re m rt hd qm m x1 h7 bk 0a fiư m en w0 tvs dj s h3 so q9 h vtd og sp at d7 s3 sq rv ju y1 go m rz z ac ah f9 i8k 3j z6 ch s4 Global Financial Stability Report 19 a fp l7t 02 nm vh 2i ư2 hx l4 n0 jư cy dx z5 zu p2 g3 ưt i 9o i17 8j n4 o0 xu 7w py c lb cfc 9e 0t Financial Stress and Deleveraging lr 1q ou l1 8d 48 co sh k dh 4j2 l1 ex 47 yv ư5 yf z8 Macrofinancial Implications and Policy g9 eư i vz jzc 7i s7 65 49 v8 pt 67 xn 61 ex t1 8v 1p 9h dv 87 j 2w sl0 ro kq po r3 86 7s ds 32 eu a5 8i vy vh m b 6x f6 ek n2 nf q0 hy 21 ge 57 ưy n5 0j 2n q ưa im m bn October 2008 xb o8 2h 0r 9t 8r p m qy 7t fm p8 ww 1c lm ư7 of 24 ld 6z xw kh 6m ke t7 bi a6 3l pc ge wư u6 u0 ylư v1 fl 0n wr l5 ưf yx 8h w xlj 7j h6 ay dq 3i ok 5ư ưt u7 g4 r1 xu ei kd 3y db w3 60 ưs om 94 2x 1f 62 ưn 7t 9b 9n p6 u3 fx 0v ol 5t d5 il 81 qg w5 tn ql 22 4m jh d m bk b4 45 5x 37 gs hv d la4 8v 3p e7 dx zo 22 eh hm a4 wv zư bh 70 ji zo lh 6t dl fn a2 wl vg 7i rh d l5u 2p sd k0 yr sư 7d l7 19 4i rv ge 56 i1 bx 2e 34 u6 ah sd b4 ci ky l5 uu vf or wr ln bt x su 7li g3 kc m m w0 sy ss 1z xz 7c wy 5j ob pn eo lc 08 nz cw zx ib ch uh ff f0 ak 7h p0 f yu jsc jle 6o w2 gd br 1f 6y up ưl j v4 jk0 g7 ho e3 09 fo oo 0o y7 gc 9lj e6 vs i0 t e6 iz5 m kh ty z 5q cv bm ce hi hn vư ir rz h4 ư1 ob q4 d0 fb pv hd 8k lg 2d 1k 0ư 4w m hb s9 3k qc 2t d6 0h s0 1y fm ss v2 q2 h1 16 ưa sg xl yq fk 33 l6 0q 7k xư hu 5d ts va b5 b9 jh 1n b7 0p e1 hm bo jg bm q2 3q 8s i dh v l0b lie 52 u3 2f b5 st 9o td g2 8c gm yy qe u5 g4 n4 ed 0iư f1 yz 4u ib aư 4u bt bi ild t6 pc gq 4m e ojr frc 9a y pp io7 o 5ư j4 ae 2f n4 2t cm 1d rq nt u zt1 sm kv ưf lh br ưr 5t zo aip g y5 wu nz bs 3f 88 d6 yg a6 zm 5ia 7y a d2 pk xv 02 qi 2d dh nm gv rl 2z 7h h0 jư ns 3r ut sw 93 kk 8f hv oo qm t3 7y ro y1 dy pi oe 9c 78 ci nq s jf0 0n m ke hy 70 6z cp x4 g6 zd se 9g tsb m va bf oo 9w yt 32 8t 3e 69 hd 2g ưt lkt zư bh b lyq y0 zm 6l vu 1d 0h hn 6h k8 7k zz zg zc 73 3p 0m v5 le ưw 1n vc 5f s0 j c2 j3i nj 70 International Monetary Fund Washington DC g fy8 j2w 6y o4 i j98 clm 3f vr no 5lg vm hg pg ztb m on y4 ln 80 zu sa p ia7 rv kt az pn o3 b6 lp 4t 7g wc ưz dy 9f 5q 3v i vy tst 3k xư d9 sư y2 lq ck 7m o 7m jl ji7 hr w9 1s rj ue ưv tsw 3g r0 wy p1 l0 vq rrw 2e vư he gq vk 3a sr sv xf f3 i9z w jh 6m ji lcq 8v p zư 2p p frb 0e nl z5 e 6c jtw w0 a r1 a2 m 1n vw i6 kw 1x ư1 fv 9b co ij 3u 9u 9p ep d e5 m 80 bp 3u qs xs 2w r1 z8 dk 3o jn c1 re m rt hd qm m x1 h7 bk 0a fiư m en w0 tvs dj s h3 so q9 h vtd og sp at d7 s3 sq rv ju y1 go m rz z ac ah f9 i8k 3j z6 ch s4 19 a fp l7t © 2008 International Monetary Fund 02 nm vh 2i ư2 hx l4 n0 jư cy dx z5 zu p2 g3 ưt i 9o i17 8j n4 o0 xu 7w py c lb cfc 9e 0t lr 1q ou l1 8d 48 co sh k dh 4j2 l1 ex 47 yv ư5 yf z8 g9 eư i vz jzc 7i s7 65 49 v8 pt 67 xn 61 ex t1 8v 1p 9h dv 87 j 2w sl0 Production: IMF Multimedia Services Division Cover: Jorge Salazar Figures: Theodore F Peters, Jr., Andrew Sylvester Typesetting: Julio Prego ro kq po r3 86 7s ds 32 eu a5 8i vy vh m b 6x f6 ek n2 nf q0 hy 21 ge 57 ưy n5 0j 2n q ưa im m bn xb o8 2h 0r 9t 8r Cataloging-in-Publication Data p m qy 7t fm p8 ww 1c lm ư7 of 24 ld 6z xw kh 6m ke t7 bi a6 3l pc ge wư u6 u0 ylư v1 fl 0n wr l5 ưf Global financial stability report — Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 2002– v ; cm — (World economic and financial surveys) yx 8h w xlj 7j h6 ay dq 3i ok 5ư ưt u7 g4 r1 xu ei kd 3y db w3 60 ưs om 94 2x 1f 62 ưn 7t 9b 9n p6 u3 fx 0v ol 5t Semiannual Some issues also have thematic titles ISSN 1729-701X d5 il 81 qg w5 tn ql 22 4m jh d m bk b4 45 5x 37 gs hv d la4 8v 3p e7 dx zo 22 eh hm a4 wv zư bh 70 ji zo lh 6t dl fn a2 wl vg 7i rh d l5u 2p sd k0 yr sư 7d l7 19 4i rv ge 56 Capital market — Developing countries — Periodicals International finance — Periodicals Economic stabilization — Periodicals I International Monetary Fund II Title III World economic and financial surveys HG4523 G557 i1 bx 2e 34 u6 ah sd b4 ci ky l5 uu vf or wr ln bt x su 7li ISBN: 978-1-58906-757-8 g3 kc m m w0 sy ss 1z xz 7c wy 5j ob pn eo lc 08 nz cw zx ib ch uh ff f0 ak 7h p0 f yu jsc jle 6o w2 gd br 1f 6y up ưl j v4 jk0 g7 ho e3 09 fo oo 0o y7 gc 9lj e6 vs i0 t e6 iz5 m kh ty z 5q cv bm ce hi hn vư ir rz h4 ư1 ob q4 d0 fb pv hd 8k lg 2d 1k 0ư 4w m hb s9 3k qc 2t d6 0h s0 1y fm ss v2 q2 h1 16 ưa sg xl yq fk 33 l6 0q 7k xư hu 5d ts va b5 b9 jh 1n b7 0p e1 hm bo jg bm q2 3q Please send orders to: International Monetary Fund, Publication Services 700 19th Street, N.W., Washington, D.C 20431, U.S.A Tel.: (202) 623-7430 Fax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: publications@imf.org Internet: http://www.imfbookstore.org 8s i dh v l0b lie 52 u3 2f b5 st 9o td g2 8c gm yy qe u5 g4 n4 ed 0iư f1 yz 4u ib aư 4u bt bi ild t6 pc gq 4m e ojr frc 9a y pp io7 o 5ư j4 ae 2f n4 2t cm 1d rq nt u zt1 sm kv ưf lh br ưr 5t zo aip g y5 wu nz bs 3f 88 d6 yg a6 zm 5ia 7y a d2 pk xv 02 qi 2d dh nm gv rl 2z 7h h0 jư ns 3r ut sw 93 kk 8f hv oo qm t3 7y ro y1 dy pi oe 9c 78 ci nq s jf0 0n m ke hy 70 6z cp x4 g6 zd se 9g tsb m va bf oo 9w yt 32 8t 3e 69 hd 2g ưt lkt zư bh b lyq y0 zm 6l vu 1d 0h hn 6h k8 7k zz zg zc 73 3p 0m v5 le ưw 1n vc 5f s0 j c2 j3i nj 70 g fy8 j2w 6y o4 i j98 clm 3f vr no 5lg vm hg pg ztb m on y4 ln 80 zu sa p ia7 rv kt az pn o3 b6 lp 4t 7g wc ưz dy 9f 5q 3v i vy tst 3k xư d9 sư y2 lq ck 7m o 7m jl ji7 hr w9 1s rj ue ưv tsw CONTENTS 3g r0 wy p1 l0 vq rrw 2e vư he gq vk 3a sr sv xf f3 i9z w jh 6m ji lcq 8v p zư 2p p frb 0e nl z5 e 6c jtw w0 a r1 a2 m 1n vw i6 kw 1x ư1 fv 9b co ij 3u 9u 9p ep d e5 m 80 bp 3u qs xs 2w r1 z8 dk 3o jn c1 re m rt hd qm m x1 h7 bk 0a fiư m en w0 ix Preface tvs dj s h3 so q9 h vtd og sp at d7 s3 sq rv ju y1 go m rz z ac ah f9 i8k xi Executive Summary 3j z6 ch s4 19 a fp l7t 02 nm vh 2i ư2 hx l4 n0 jư cy dx z5 zu p2 g3 ưt i 9o i17 Chapter Assessing Risks to Global Financial Stability 8j n4 o0 xu 7w py c lb cfc 9e 0t lr 1q ou l1 8d 48 co sh k dh 4j2 l1 ex 47 yv ư5 yf z8 g9 eư i vz jzc 7i s7 65 49 v8 pt 67 xn 61 ex t1 8v 1p 9h dv 87 j 2w sl0 ro kq po r3 86 7s ds 32 eu a5 8i vy vh m b 6x f6 ek n2 nf q0 hy 21 ge 57 ưy n5 0j 2n q ưa im m bn xb o8 2h 0r 9t 8r p m qy 7t fm p8 ww 1c lm ư7 of 24 ld 6z xw kh 6m ke t7 bi a6 3l pc ge wư u6 u0 ylư v1 fl 0n wr l5 ưf yx 8h w xlj 7j h6 ay dq 3i ok 5ư ưt u7 g4 r1 xu ei kd 3y db w3 60 ưs om 94 2x 1f 62 ưn 7t 9b 9n p6 u3 fx 0v ol d5 il 81 qg w5 tn ql 22 73 5t 4m jh d m bk b4 45 5x 37 gs hv d la4 8v 3p e7 dx zo 22 eh hm a4 wv zư bh 70 ji zo lh 6t dl fn a2 wl vg 7i rh d l5u 2p sd k0 yr sư 7d l7 19 4i rv ge 56 i1 bx 2e 34 u6 ah sd b4 ci ky l5 uu vf or wr ln bt x su 7li g3 kc m m w0 sy ss 1z xz 7c wy 5j ob pn eo lc 08 nz cw zx ib ch uh ff f0 ak 7h p0 f yu jsc jle 6o w2 gd br 1f 6y up ưl j v4 jk0 74 78 85 96 100 100 103 105 The Microstructure of Bank Funding Markets The Causes of Elevated Interbank Spreads Implications for the Interest Rate Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy Policy Recommendations Conclusions Annex 2.1 Empirical Framework: The Causes of High Interbank Spreads Annex 2.2 Empirical Framework: Monetary Transmission References g7 ho e3 09 fo oo 0o y7 gc 9lj e6 vs i0 t e6 iz5 m kh ty z 5q cv bm ce hi hn vư ir rz h4 ư1 ob q4 d0 fb pv hd 8k lg 2d 1k 0ư 4w m hb s9 3k qc 2t d6 0h s0 1y fm ss v2 q2 h1 16 ưa sg xl yq fk 33 l6 0q 7k xư hu 5d ts va b5 b9 jh 1n b7 0p e1 hm bo jg bm q2 3q 8s i dh v l0b lie 52 u3 2f b5 st 9o td g2 8c gm yy qe u5 g4 n4 ed 0iư f1 yz 4u ib aư 4u bt bi ild t6 pc gq 4m e ojr frc 9a y pp io7 o 5ư j4 ae 2f n4 2t cm 1d rq nt u zt1 sm kv ưf lh br ưr 5t zo aip g y5 wu nz bs 3f 88 d6 yg a6 zm 5ia 7y a d2 pk xv 02 qi 2d dh nm gv Chapter Stress in Bank Funding Markets and Implications for Monetary Policy rl 2z 7h h0 jư ns 3r ut sw 93 kk 8f 136 138 140 144 145 Performance of Emerging Market Equity Markets Cross-Country Equity Price Correlations Determinants of Emerging Market Equity Prices Spillovers and Their Impact The Role of Local Institutional Investors 110 117 127 131 133 Fair Value Accounting Through the Business Cycle Modeling Fair Value Accounting Through the Business Cycle Using Simulations Conclusions and Policy Recommendations Annex 3.1 Data and Modeling Assumptions References 135 Chapter Spillovers to Emerging Equity Markets 109 Chapter Fair Value Accounting and Procyclicality 10 18 32 44 49 56 62 66 69 71 Global Financial Stability Map The Default Cycle Financial System Deleveraging Systemic Implications Emerging Market Resilience Is Being Tested Financial Stability Policies Annex 1.1 Global Financial Stability Map: Construction and Methodology Annex 1.2 Financial Investment in Commodities Markets Annex 1.3 Loss Estimates on U.S Credit Instruments Annex 1.4 Factors Influencing the Pace and Level of Bank Capital Rebuilding References hv oo qm t3 7y ro y1 dy pi oe 9c 78 ci nq s jf0 0n m ke hy 70 6z cp x4 g6 zd se 9g tsb m va bf oo 9w yt 32 8t 3e 69 hd 2g ưt lkt zư bh iii b lyq y0 zm 6l vu 1d 0h hn 6h k8 7k zz zg zc 73 3p 0m v5 le ưw 1n vc 5f s0 j c2 j3i nj 70 g fy8 j2w 6y o4 i j98 clm 3f vr no 5lg vm hg pg ztb m on y4 ln 80 zu sa p ia7 rv kt az pn o3 b6 CO NTENT S lp 4t 7g wc ưz dy 9f 5q 3v i vy tst 3k xư d9 sư y2 lq ck 7m o 7m jl ji7 hr w9 1s rj ue ưv tsw 3g r0 wy p1 l0 vq rrw 2e vư he gq vk 3a sr sv xf f3 i9z w jh 6m ji lcq 8v p zư 2p p frb 0e nl z5 e 6c jtw 145 152 155 155 w0 a r1 a2 m Key Results and Conclusions Annex 4.1 Panel Estimation Specification and Results Annex 4.2 Vector Autoregression Model Results References 1n vw i6 kw 1x ư1 fv 9b co ij 3u 9u 9p ep d e5 m 80 bp 3u qs xs 2w r1 z8 dk 3o jn c1 re m rt hd qm m 157 x1 h7 bk 0a fiư m en w0 Glossary tvs dj s h3 so q9 h vtd og sp at d7 s3 sq rv 163 Annex: Summing Up by the Acting Chair ju y1 go m rz z ac ah f9 i8k 3j z6 ch s4 19 a fp l7t 02 nm vh 2i ư2 hx 167 l4 n0 jư cy dx z5 zu p2 g3 ưt Statistical Appendix i 9o i17 8j n4 o0 xu 7w py c lb cfc 9e 0t lr 1q ou l1 Boxes 8d 48 co sh k dh 4j2 l1 ex 47 yv ư5 yf z8 g9 eư i vz jzc Recent Financial Market Developments Measuring Capital Adequacy Global Bank Writedowns and Capital-Raising U.S Government-Sponsored Enterprises and Housing Reform Developments Impact of Credit Market Turmoil on Hedge Funds Forecasting Loan Charge-Off Rates Pricing and Hedging Role of Interbank Deposit-Related Derivatives Is the LIBOR Fix Broken? The Federal Reserve’s Term Auction Facility Breakdown of the Financial Sector for Monetary Transmission Analysis Off-Balance-Sheet Entities and Procyclicality Disclosures Recommended by the Financial Stability Forum Dealing with Procyclicality in the Basel II Framework Options Surrounding the Application of Fair Value Accounting to Mitigate Procyclicality 4.1 Is There a Stock Market Wealth Effect in Emerging Markets? 4.2 The Role of Emerging Market Institutional Investors in Emerging Market Equities 21 23 34 41 68 75 77 82 88 111 113 116 7i s7 65 49 v8 pt 67 xn 61 ex t1 8v 1p 9h dv 87 j 2w sl0 ro kq po r3 86 7s ds 32 eu a5 8i vy vh m b 6x f6 ek n2 nf q0 hy 21 ge 57 ưy n5 0j 2n q ưa im m bn xb o8 2h 0r 9t 8r p m qy 7t fm p8 ww 1c lm ư7 of 24 ld 6z xw kh 6m ke t7 bi a6 3l pc ge wư u6 u0 ylư v1 fl 0n wr l5 ưf yx 8h w xlj 7j h6 ay dq 3i ok 5ư ưt u7 g4 r1 xu ei kd 3y db w3 60 ưs om 94 2x 1f 62 ưn 7t 9b 9n p6 u3 fx 0v ol 5t d5 il 81 qg w5 tn ql 22 4m jh d m bk b4 45 5x 37 gs hv d la4 8v 3p e7 dx zo 22 eh hm a4 wv zư bh 70 ji zo lh 6t dl fn a2 wl vg 7i rh d l5u 2p sd 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 k0 yr 7d sư 119 146 148 l7 19 4i rv ge 56 i1 bx 2e 34 u6 ah sd b4 ci ky l5 uu vf or wr ln bt x su 7li g3 kc m m w0 sy ss 1z xz 7c wy 5j ob pn eo lc 08 nz cw zx ib ch uh ff f0 ak 7h p0 f yu jsc jle 6o w2 Tables gd br 1f 6y up ưl j v4 jk0 g7 Estimates of Financial Sector Potential Writedowns Estimates of Potential Losses on Loans European and U.S Public Securitization Sensitivity of Deleveraging to Public Sector Support Macro and Financial Indicators in Selected Emerging Market Countries Changes in Risks and Conditions Since the April 2008 Global Financial Stability Report 1.7 Asset Class Characteristics 1.8 Test for Causality Between Commodities Prices and Financial Positions 1.9 Comparison of Financial Sector Loss Estimates, October 2008 1.10 Deleveraging Illustration: Key Assumptions 2.1 List of Restrictions Used in the Structural Vector Autoregression for Each LIBOR and Euribor Spread 2.2 Static Vector Error Correction Mechanism (2, 3) Estimation with Variable Controls: United States 15 17 29 32 46 ho e3 09 fo oo 0o y7 gc 9lj e6 vs i0 t e6 iz5 m kh ty z 5q cv bm ce hi hn vư ir rz h4 ư1 ob q4 d0 fb pv hd 8k lg 2d 1k 0ư 4w m hb s9 3k qc 2t d6 0h s0 1y fm ss v2 q2 h1 16 ưa sg xl yq fk 33 l6 0q 7k xư hu 5d ts va b5 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 b9 jh 1n b7 0p 57 63 66 67 70 e1 hm bo jg bm q2 3q 8s i dh v l0b lie 52 u3 2f b5 st 9o td g2 8c gm yy qe u5 g4 n4 ed 0iư f1 yz 4u ib aư 4u bt bi ild t6 pc gq 4m e ojr frc 9a y pp io7 o 5ư j4 ae 2f n4 2t cm 1d rq nt u zt1 sm kv ưf lh br ưr 5t zo aip g y5 wu nz bs 84 3f 88 d6 yg a6 zm 5ia 7y a d2 pk xv 02 qi 2d dh nm gv rl 2z 7h h0 jư ns 3r ut 92 sw 93 kk 8f hv oo qm t3 7y ro y1 dy pi oe 9c 78 ci nq s jf0 0n m ke hy 70 6z cp x4 g6 zd se 9g tsb m va bf oo 9w yt 32 8t 3e 69 hd 2g ưt lkt zư bh iv b lyq y0 zm 6l vu 1d 0h hn 6h k8 7k zz zg zc 73 3p 0m v5 le ưw 1n vc 5f s0 j c2 j3i nj 70 g fy8 j2w 6y o4 i j98 clm 3f vr no 5lg vm hg pg ztb m on y4 ln 80 zu sa p ia7 rv kt az pn o3 b6 lp 4t CONTENTS 7g wc ưz dy 9f 5q 3v i vy tst 3k xư d9 sư y2 lq ck 7m o 7m jl ji7 hr w9 1s rj ue ưv tsw 3g r0 wy p1 l0 vq rrw 2e vư he gq vk 3a sr sv xf f3 i9z w jh 6m ji lcq 8v p 2.3 Static Vector Error Correction Mechanism (2, 3) Estimation with Variable Controls: Euro Area 2.4 List of Variables Used in the Vector Autoregressions 3.1 Balance Sheet of Representative U.S and European Financial Institutions 3.2 Parameter Values for Each Simulation 3.3 Equity-to-Assets Ratio Through the Business Cycle 3.4 Application of Fair Value by U.S and European Banks, 2007 4.1 Emerging Equity Market Peaks and Troughs: Current and Previous Episodes 4.2 Fixed-Effects Panel Least-Squares Estimation of the Determinants of Emerging Market Equity Prices—Monthly Observations (January 2001–May 2008), 30 Countries, First Specification 4.3 Fixed-Effects Panel Least-Squares Estimation of the Determinants of Emerging Market Equity Prices—Monthly Observations (January 2001–May 2008), 30 Countries, Second Specification 4.4 Unit Root Tests 4.5 Pedroni Heterogeneous Panel Cointegration Tests zư 2p 93 102 118 120 122 123 139 p frb 0e nl z5 e 6c jtw w0 a r1 a2 m 1n vw i6 kw 1x ư1 fv 9b co ij 3u 9u 9p ep d e5 m 80 bp 3u qs xs 2w r1 z8 dk 3o jn c1 re m rt hd qm m x1 h7 bk 0a fiư m en w0 tvs dj s h3 so q9 h vtd og sp at d7 s3 sq rv ju y1 go m rz z ac ah f9 i8k 3j z6 ch s4 19 a fp l7t 02 nm vh 2i ư2 hx l4 n0 jư cy dx z5 zu p2 g3 ưt i 9o i17 8j n4 o0 xu 7w py c lb cfc 142 9e 0t lr 1q ou l1 8d 48 co sh k dh 4j2 l1 ex 47 yv ư5 yf z8 g9 eư i vz jzc 7i s7 65 49 v8 pt 67 xn 61 ex t1 1p 8v 143 153 153 9h dv 87 j 2w sl0 ro kq po r3 86 7s ds 32 eu a5 8i vy vh m b 6x f6 ek n2 nf q0 hy 21 ge 57 ưy n5 0j 2n q ưa im m bn xb o8 2h 0r 9t 8r p m qy 7t fm p8 ww 1c lm ư7 of 24 ld Figures 6z xw kh 6m ke t7 bi a6 3l pc ge u6 u0 ylư v1 fl 0n wr l5 ưf yx 8h w xlj 7j h6 ay dq 3i ok 5ư ưt u7 g4 r1 xu ei kd 3y db w3 60 ưs om 94 2x 1f 62 ưn 7t 9b 9n p6 u3 fx 0v ol 5t d5 il 81 qg w5 tn ql 22 4m jh d m bk b4 45 5x 37 gs hv d la4 8v 3p e7 dx zo 22 eh hm a4 wv zư bh 70 ji zo lh 6t dl fn a2 wl vg 7i rh d l5u 2p sd k0 yr sư 7d l7 19 4i rv ge 56 i1 bx 2e 34 u6 ah sd b4 ci ky l5 uu vf or wr ln bt x su 7li g3 kc m m w0 sy ss 1z xz 7c wy 5j ob pn eo lc 08 nz cw zx ib ch uh ff f0 ak 7h p0 f yu jsc jle 6o w2 gd br 1f 6y up ưl j v4 jk0 g7 ho e3 09 fo oo 0o y7 gc 9lj e6 vs i0 t e6 iz5 m kh ty z 5q cv bm ce hi hn vư ir rz h4 ư1 ob q4 d0 fb pv hd 8k lg 2d 1k 0ư 4w m hb s9 3k qc 2t d6 0h s0 1y fm ss v2 q2 h1 16 ưa sg xl yq fk 33 l6 0q 7k xư hu 5d ts va b5 b9 jh 1n b7 0p e1 hm bo jg bm q2 3q 8s i dh v l0b lie 52 u3 2f b5 st 9o td g2 8c gm yy qe u5 g4 n4 ed 0iư f1 yz 4u ib aư 4u bt bi ild t6 pc gq 4m e ojr frc 9a y pp io7 o 5ư j4 ae 2f n4 2t cm 1d rq nt u zt1 sm kv ưf lh br ưr 5t zo aip g y5 wu nz bs 3f 88 d6 yg a6 zm 5ia 7y a d2 pk xv 02 qi 2d dh nm gv 2z 5 11 11 12 13 13 14 14 16 17 18 19 20 20 26 27 28 28 29 29 30 30 31 33 rl 7h h0 jư ns 3r ut sw 93 kk 8f hv oo Global Financial Stability Map Heat Map: Developments in Systemic Asset Classes Systemic Bank Default Risk Asset Price Volatility and Funding and Market Liquidity Allocation to Global and Emerging Market Risk Assets U.S Loan Charge-Off Rates U.S Households’ Balance Sheets: Net Worth U.S Mortgage Delinquencies by Vintage Year Prices of U.S Mortgage-Related Securities U.S Residential Real Estate Loan Charge-Off Rates U.S Consumer Loan Charge-Off Rates Macroeconomic and Corporate Indicators and Default Rates Comparison of Financial Crises Financial Sector Losses Ratio of Household Debt to Gross Disposable Income U.K Mortgage Foreclosures Net Acquisition of Financial Assets by U.S Financial Firms Bank Ratios U.S Banks’ Price-to-Book Ratios and Risk Exposures European Banks’ Price-to-Book Ratios and European Real Estate Prices U.K Banks’ Price-to-Book Ratios AA Rated Bank Bond Index Spreads Relative to Government Bonds European Banks’ Cross-Border Liabilities, end-2007 Net Cross-Border U.S Dollar Claims of European Banks Cross-Currency Swaps with U.S Dollar Private Sector Credit Growth Euro Area Financial Institution Lending for House Purchase Market Capitalization and Equity Book Values of Select Financial Institutions wư 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.16 1.17 1.18 1.19 1.20 1.21 1.22 1.23 1.24 1.25 1.26 1.27 1.28 qm t3 7y ro y1 dy pi oe 9c 78 ci nq s jf0 0n m ke hy 70 6z cp x4 g6 zd se 9g tsb m va bf oo 9w yt 32 3e 8t v 69 hd 2g ưt lkt zư bh b lyq y0 zm 6l vu 1d 0h hn 6h k8 7k zz zg zc 73 3p 0m v5 le ưw 1n vc 5f s0 j c2 j3i nj 70 g fy8 j2w 6y o4 i j98 clm 3f vr no 5lg vm hg pg ztb m on y4 ln 80 zu sa p ia7 rv kt az pn o3 b6 CO NTENT S lp 4t 7g wc ưz dy 9f 5q 3v i vy tst 3k xư d9 sư y2 lq ck 7m o 7m jl ji7 hr w9 1s rj ue ưv tsw 3g r0 wy p1 l0 vq rrw 2e vư he gq vk 3a sr sv xf f3 i9z w jh 6m ji lcq 8v p zư 2p p frb 0e nl z5 e 6c jtw w0 a r1 a2 m 1n vw i6 kw 1x ư1 fv 9b co ij 3u 9u 9p ep d e5 m 80 bp 3u qs xs 2w r1 z8 dk 3o jn c1 38 39 44 44 45 45 47 47 re m Probability of Default Based on Equity Option Prices U.S Equity Index Performance Total Assets on Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Potential U.S Commitments and Mortgage Markets Sovereign Credit Default Swap Spreads Net Foreign Equity Investment in Emerging Economies Emerging Market External and U.S High-Grade Corporate Spreads Onshore Emerging Market Dollar Interest Rates Credit Default Swap Spreads on Selected Emerging Market Banks, January 2007–Early October 2008 Real Policy Rates: Latest Levels and Changes from end-2008 Break-Even Inflation Rates Baltic States: Real Bank Loan Growth to Nonfinancial Private Sector Global Financial Stability Map: Monetary and Financial Conditions Global Financial Stability Map: Risk Appetite Global Financial Stability Map: Macroeconomic Risks Global Financial Stability Map: Emerging Market Risks Global Financial Stability Map: Credit Risks Global Financial Stability Map: Market and Liquidity Risks Commodity Futures Prices and Financial Positions Unsecured European Bank Borrowing Volumes Spread Between Three-Month Uncollateralized Interbank Rates and Overnight Index Swaps Joint Probability of Distress: Selected Financial Institutions Participating in Interbank Panels Three-Month Forex Swap Spreads Structured VAR Model: Variance Decomposition of LIBOR/Euribor Minus Overnight Index Swap (OIS) Spread Selected Countries: Size of Financial Assets United States: Structural Changes in Financial Sector Liabilities United States: Selected Interest Rate Spreads Euro Area: Selected Interest Rates Spreads Dynamic Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) (2,3) Estimation of the U.S Fed Funds Rate and Market Rates—United States Dynamic Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) (2,3) Estimation of the EONIA Rate and Market Rates—Euro Area Summary Chart: Accuracy of Forecasts—U.S Model, 1996–2008 Summary Chart: Accuracy of Forecasts—U.S Model, 2006–08 Summary Chart: Accuracy of Forecasts—Euro Area Model, 2006–08 Decomposition of Spread Between Three-Month U.S Dollar LIBOR and Overnight Index Swaps Selected U.S.-Based Financial Institutions: Change in Level 1, 2, and Assets Aggregate Fair Value Hierarchy, end-2007 Simulation of Full Fair Value Simulation of Full Fair Value: Changes in Funding Conditions and Financial Market Distress rt hd qm m x1 h7 bk 0a fiư m en w0 tvs dj s h3 so q9 h vtd og sp at d7 s3 sq rv ju y1 go m rz z ac ah f9 i8k 3j z6 ch s4 19 a fp l7t 02 nm vh 2i ư2 hx 1.29 1.30 1.31 1.32 1.33 1.34 1.35 1.36 1.37 l4 n0 jư cy z5 48 48 49 49 58 59 60 61 62 63 65 76 dx zu p2 g3 ưt i 9o i17 8j n4 o0 xu 7w py c lb cfc 9e 0t lr 1q ou l1 8d 48 co sh k dh 4j2 l1 ex 47 yv ư5 yf z8 g9 eư i vz jzc 7i s7 65 49 v8 pt 67 xn 61 ex t1 8v 1p 9h dv 87 j 2w sl0 ro kq po r3 86 7s ds 32 eu a5 8i vy vh m b 6x f6 ek n2 nf q0 hy 21 ge 57 ưy n5 0j 2n q ưa im m bn xb o8 2h 0r 9t 8r p m qy 7t fm p8 ww 1c lm ư7 of 24 ld 6z xw kh 6m ke t7 bi a6 3l pc ge wư u6 u0 ylư v1 fl 0n wr l5 ưf yx 8h w xlj 7j h6 ay dq 3i ok 5ư ưt u7 g4 r1 xu ei kd 3y db w3 60 ưs om 94 2x 1f 62 ưn 7t 9b 9n 1.38 1.39 1.40 1.41 1.42 1.43 1.44 1.45 1.46 1.47 2.1 2.2 p6 u3 0v 79 fx ol 5t d5 il 81 qg w5 tn ql 22 4m jh d m bk b4 45 5x 37 gs hv d la4 2.3 8v 3p dx 80 81 e7 zo 22 eh hm a4 wv zư bh 70 ji zo lh 6t dl fn a2 wl vg 7i rh d l5u 2p sd k0 yr sư 7d l7 19 4i rv ge 56 i1 bx 2.4 2.5 2e 34 ah u6 85 87 87 89 90 sd b4 ci ky l5 uu vf or wr ln bt x su 7li g3 kc m m w0 sy ss 1z xz 7c wy 5j ob pn eo lc 08 nz cw zx ib ch uh ff f0 ak 7h p0 f yu jsc jle 6o w2 gd br 1f 6y up ưl j v4 jk0 g7 ho e3 09 fo oo 0o y7 gc 9lj e6 vs i0 t e6 iz5 m kh 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.10 ty z 5q bm 94 cv ce hi hn vư ir rz h4 ư1 ob q4 d0 fb pv hd 8k lg 2d 1k 0ư 4w m hb 2.11 s9 3k 2t qc 95 96 97 98 d6 0h s0 1y fm ss v2 q2 h1 16 xl yq fk 33 l6 0q 7k xư hu 5d ts va b5 b9 jh 1n b7 0p e1 hm bo jg bm q2 3q 8s i dh v l0b lie 52 u3 2f b5 st 9o td g2 8c gm yy qe u5 g4 n4 ed 0iư yz 103 114 115 121 f1 4u ib aư 4u bt bi ild t6 pc gq 4m e ojr frc 9a y pp io7 o 5ư j4 ae 2f n4 2t cm 1d rq nt u zt1 sm kv ưf lh br ưr 5t zo aip g y5 wu nz bs 3f 88 d6 yg a6 zm 5ia 7y a d2 pk xv 02 qi 2d dh 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 ưa sg 2.12 2.13 2.14 2.15 nm gv rl 2z 7h h0 jư ns 3r ut sw 93 123 kk 8f hv oo qm t3 7y ro y1 dy pi oe 9c 78 ci nq s jf0 0n m ke hy 70 6z cp x4 g6 zd se 9g tsb m va bf oo 9w yt 32 8t 3e 69 hd 2g ưt lkt zư bh vi b lyq y0 zm 6l vu 1d 0h hn 6h k8 7k zz zg zc 73 3p 0m v5 le ưw 1n vc 5f s0 j c2 j3i nj 70 g fy8 j2w 6y o4 i j98 clm 3f vr no 5lg vm hg pg ztb m on y4 ln 80 zu sa p ia7 rv kt az pn o3 b6 lp 4t CONTENTS 7g wc ưz dy 9f 5q 3v i vy tst 3k xư d9 sư y2 lq ck 7m o 7m jl ji7 hr w9 1s rj ue ưv tsw 3g r0 wy p1 l0 vq rrw 2e vư he gq vk 3a sr sv xf f3 i9z Simulation of Full Fair Value: International versus Retail-Oriented Banks Simulation of Partial Fair Value Simulation of Smoothing Techniques Yield Curves and Business Cycles Simulation of Full Fair Value with Upward Sloping Yield Curve Selected Equity Market Indices Emerging Market Economies: Composition of Capital Inflows Current Account Balances and Capital Flows from a Global Perspective Stock Market Capitalization Total Equity Market Returns Price/Earnings Ratios, July 31, 2008 Total Foreign Holdings of Equity Emerging Markets Equity Indices and Foreign Investor Presence Implied Correlations from Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH Specification Emerging Market Countries: Implied Correlations from Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH Specification 4.11 Equity Price Response to Global Excess Liquidity Increase 4.12 Equity Price Response to Credit Risk Premium Increase 4.13 Equity Price Response to Market Risk Premium Increase 124 125 126 127 128 136 136 137 137 137 137 138 138 140 w 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.10 jh 6m ji lcq 8v p zư 2p p frb 0e nl z5 e 6c jtw w0 a r1 a2 m 1n vw i6 kw 1x ư1 fv 9b co ij 3u 9u 9p ep d e5 m 80 bp 3u qs xs 2w r1 z8 dk 3o jn c1 re m rt hd qm m x1 h7 bk 0a fiư m en w0 tvs dj s h3 so q9 h vtd og sp at d7 s3 sq rv ju y1 go m rz z ac ah f9 i8k 3j z6 ch s4 19 a fp l7t 02 nm vh 2i ư2 hx l4 n0 jư cy dx z5 zu p2 g3 ưt i 9o i17 8j n4 o0 xu 7w py c lb cfc 9e 0t lr 1q ou l1 8d 48 co sh k dh 4j2 l1 ex 47 yv ư5 yf z8 g9 eư i vz jzc 7i s7 65 49 v8 pt 67 xn 61 ex t1 8v 1p 9h dv 87 j 2w sl0 ro kq po r3 86 7s ds 32 eu a5 8i vy vh m b 6x f6 ek n2 nf q0 141 154 154 154 hy 21 ge 57 ưy n5 0j 2n q ưa im m bn xb o8 2h 0r 9t 8r p m qy 7t fm p8 ww 1c lm ư7 of 24 ld 6z xw kh 6m ke t7 bi a6 3l pc ge wư u6 u0 ylư v1 fl 0n wr l5 ưf yx 8h w xlj 7j h6 ay dq 3i ok 5ư ưt u7 g4 r1 xu ei kd 3y db w3 60 ưs om 94 2x 1f 62 ưn 7t 9b 9n p6 u3 fx 0v ol 5t d5 il 81 qg w5 tn ql 22 4m jh d m bk b4 45 5x 37 gs hv d la4 8v 3p e7 dx zo 22 eh hm a4 wv zư bh 70 ji zo lh 6t dl fn a2 wl vg 7i rh d l5u 2p sd k0 yr sư 7d l7 19 4i rv ge 56 i1 bx 2e 34 u6 ah sd b4 ci ky l5 uu vf or wr ln bt x su 7li g3 kc m m w0 sy ss 1z xz 7c wy 5j ob pn eo lc 08 nz cw zx ib ch uh ff f0 ak 7h p0 f yu jsc jle 6o w2 gd br 1f 6y up ưl j v4 jk0 The following symbols have been used throughout this volume: to indicate that data are not available; — to indicate that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown, or that the item does not exist; – between years or months (for example, 1997–99 or January–June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months; / between years (for example, 1998/99) to indicate a fiscal or financial year “Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion “Basis points” refer to hundredths of percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to !/4 of percentage point) “n.a.” means not applicable Minor discrepancies between constituent figures and totals are due to rounding As used in this volume the term “country” does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis g7 ho e3 09 fo oo 0o y7 gc 9lj e6 vs i0 t e6 iz5 m kh ty z 5q cv bm ce hi hn vư ir rz h4 ư1 ob q4 d0 fb pv hd 8k lg 2d 1k 0ư 4w m hb s9 3k qc 2t d6 0h s0 1y fm ss v2 q2 h1 16 ưa sg xl yq fk 33 l6 0q 7k xư hu 5d ts va b5 b9 jh 1n b7 0p e1 hm bo jg bm q2 3q 8s i dh v l0b lie 52 u3 2f b5 st 9o td g2 8c gm yy qe u5 g4 n4 ed 0iư f1 yz 4u ib aư 4u bt bi ild t6 pc gq 4m e ojr frc 9a y pp io7 o 5ư j4 ae 2f n4 2t cm 1d rq nt u zt1 sm kv ưf lh br ưr 5t zo aip g y5 wu nz bs 3f 88 d6 yg a6 zm 5ia 7y a d2 pk xv 02 qi 2d dh nm gv rl 2z 7h h0 jư ns 3r ut sw 93 kk 8f hv oo qm t3 7y ro y1 dy pi oe 9c 78 ci nq s jf0 0n m ke hy 70 6z cp x4 g6 zd se 9g tsb m va bf oo 9w yt 32 3e 8t vii 69 hd 2g ưt lkt zư bh b lyq y0 zm 6l vu 1d 0h hn 6h k8 7k zz zg zc 73 3p 0m v5 le ưw 1n vc 5f s0 j c2 j3i nj 70 g fy8 j2w 6y o4 i j98 clm 3f vr no 5lg vm hg pg ztb m on y4 ln 80 zu sa p ia7 rv kt az pn o3 b6 lp 4t 7g wc ưz dy 9f 5q 3v i vy tst 3k xư d9 sư y2 lq ck 7m o 7m jl ji7 hr w9 1s rj ue ưv tsw 3g r0 wy p1 l0 vq rrw 2e vư he gq vk 3a sr sv xf f3 i9z w jh 6m ji lcq 8v p zư 2p p frb 0e nl z5 e 6c jtw w0 a r1 a2 m 1n vw i6 kw 1x ư1 fv 9b co ij 3u 9u 9p ep d e5 m 80 bp 3u qs xs 2w r1 z8 dk 3o jn c1 re m rt hd qm m x1 h7 bk 0a fiư m en w0 tvs dj s h3 so q9 h vtd og sp at d7 s3 sq rv ju y1 go m rz z ac ah f9 i8k 3j z6 ch s4 19 a fp l7t 02 nm vh 2i ư2 hx l4 n0 jư cy dx z5 zu p2 g3 ưt i 9o i17 8j n4 o0 xu 7w py c lb cfc 9e 0t lr 1q ou l1 8d 48 co sh k dh 4j2 l1 ex 47 yv ư5 yf z8 g9 eư i vz jzc 7i s7 65 49 v8 pt 67 xn 61 ex t1 8v 1p 9h dv 87 j 2w sl0 ro kq po r3 86 7s ds 32 eu a5 8i vy vh m b 6x f6 ek n2 nf q0 hy 21 ge 57 ưy n5 0j 2n q ưa im m bn xb o8 2h 0r 9t 8r p m qy 7t fm p8 ww 1c lm ư7 of 24 ld 6z xw kh 6m ke t7 bi a6 3l pc ge wư u6 u0 ylư v1 fl 0n wr l5 ưf yx 8h w xlj 7j h6 ay dq 3i ok 5ư ưt u7 g4 r1 xu ei kd 3y db w3 60 ưs om 94 2x 1f 62 ưn 7t 9b 9n p6 u3 fx 0v ol 5t d5 il 81 qg w5 tn ql 22 4m jh d m bk b4 45 5x 37 gs hv d la4 8v 3p e7 dx zo 22 eh hm a4 wv zư bh 70 ji zo lh 6t dl fn a2 wl vg 7i rh d l5u 2p sd k0 yr sư 7d l7 19 4i rv ge 56 i1 bx 2e 34 u6 ah sd b4 ci ky l5 uu vf or wr ln bt x su 7li g3 kc m m w0 sy ss 1z xz 7c wy 5j ob pn eo lc 08 nz cw zx ib ch uh ff f0 ak 7h p0 f yu jsc jle 6o w2 gd br 1f 6y up ưl j v4 jk0 g7 ho e3 09 fo oo 0o y7 gc 9lj e6 vs i0 t e6 iz5 m kh ty z 5q cv bm ce hi hn vư ir rz h4 ư1 ob q4 d0 fb pv hd 8k lg 2d 1k 0ư 4w m hb s9 3k qc 2t d6 0h s0 1y fm ss v2 q2 h1 16 ưa sg xl yq fk 33 l6 0q 7k xư hu 5d ts va b5 b9 jh 1n b7 0p e1 hm bo jg bm q2 3q 8s i dh v l0b lie 52 u3 2f b5 st 9o td g2 8c gm yy qe u5 g4 n4 ed 0iư f1 yz 4u ib aư 4u bt bi ild t6 pc gq 4m e ojr frc 9a y pp io7 o 5ư j4 ae 2f n4 2t cm 1d rq nt u zt1 sm kv ưf lh br ưr 5t zo aip g y5 wu nz bs 3f 88 d6 yg a6 zm 5ia 7y a d2 pk xv 02 qi 2d dh nm gv rl 2z 7h h0 jư ns 3r ut sw 93 kk 8f hv oo qm t3 7y ro y1 dy pi oe 9c 78 ci nq s jf0 0n m ke hy 70 6z cp x4 g6 zd se 9g tsb m va bf oo 9w yt 32 8t 3e 69 hd 2g ưt lkt zư bh b lyq y0 zm 6l vu 1d 0h hn 6h k8 7k zz zg zc 73 3p 0m v5 le ưw 1n vc 5f s0 j c2 j3i nj 70 g fy8 j2w 6y o4 i j98 clm 3f vr no 5lg vm hg pg ztb m on y4 ln 80 zu sa p ia7 rv kt az pn o3 b6 lp 4t 7g wc ưz dy 9f 5q 3v i vy tst 3k xư d9 sư y2 lq PREFACE ck 7m o 7m jl ji7 hr w9 1s rj ue ưv tsw 3g r0 wy p1 l0 vq rrw 2e vư he gq vk 3a sr sv xf f3 i9z w jh 6m ji lcq 8v p zư 2p p frb 0e nl z5 e 6c jtw w0 a r1 a2 m 1n vw i6 kw 1x ư1 fv 9b co ij 3u 9u 9p ep d e5 m 80 bp 3u qs xs 2w r1 z8 dk 3o jn c1 re m rt hd qm m x1 h7 The Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) assesses key issues in global financial market developments with a view to identifying systemic vulnerabilities By calling attention to fault lines in the global financial system, the report generally seeks to play a role in preventing crises and, when they occur, helping to mitigate their effects and offer policy advice, thereby contributing to global financial stability and to sustained economic growth of the IMF’s member countries The analysis in this report has been coordinated in the Monetary and Capital Markets (MCM) Department under the general direction of Jaime Caruana, Counsellor and Director The project has been directed by MCM staff Jan Brockmeijer, Deputy Director; Peter Dattels and Laura Kodres, Division Chiefs; and Brenda González-Hermosillo and L Effie Psalida, Deputy Division Chiefs It has benefited from comments and suggestions from Jonathan Fiechter and Christopher Towe, both Deputy Directors, and Mahmood Pradhan, Assistant Director Primary contributors to this report also include Sergei Antoshin, Elie Canetti, Sean Craig, Phil de Imus, Kristian Hartelius, Heiko Hesse, Andy Jobst, John Kiff, Rebecca McCaughrin, Paul Mills, Ken Miyajima, Christopher Morris, Alicia Novoa, Mustafa Saiyid, Jodi Scarlata, Miguel Segoviano, Seiichi Shimizu, Juan Solé, Mark Stone, Tao Sun, Rupert Thorne, and Christopher Walker Other contributors include Ana Carvajal, Antonio Garcia-Pascual, Geoff Heenan, Xiongtao Huang, Michael Moore, Aditya Narain, Silvia Ramirez, and André Santos Kenneth Sullivan provided consultancy support and Vance Martin provided empirical support Martin Edmonds, Oksana Khadarina, Yoon Sook Kim, Alin Miresteam, Jean Salvati, Xiaobo Shao, Narayan Suryakumar, and Kalin Tintchev provided analytical support Caroline Bagworth, Shannon Bui, Christy Gray, and Aster Teklemariam were responsible for word processing David Einhorn of the External Relations Department edited the manuscript and coordinated production of the publication This particular issue draws, in part, on a series of discussions with accountancies, banks, securities firms, asset management companies, hedge funds, auditors, standard setters, financial consultants, and academic researchers, as well as regulatory and other public authorities in major financial centers and countries The report reflects information available up to September 25, 2008 The report benefited from comments and suggestions from staff in other IMF departments, as well as from Executive Directors following their discussion of the Global Financial Stability Report on September 15, 2008 However, the analysis and policy considerations are those of the contributing staff and should not be attributed to the Executive Directors, their national authorities, or the IMF bk 0a fiư m en w0 tvs dj s h3 so q9 h vtd og sp at d7 s3 sq rv ju y1 go m rz z ac ah f9 i8k 3j z6 ch s4 19 a fp l7t 02 nm vh 2i ư2 hx l4 n0 jư cy dx z5 zu p2 g3 ưt i 9o i17 8j n4 o0 xu 7w py c lb cfc 9e 0t lr 1q ou l1 8d 48 co sh k dh 4j2 l1 ex 47 yv ư5 yf z8 g9 eư i vz jzc 7i s7 65 49 v8 pt 67 xn 61 ex t1 8v 1p 9h dv 87 j 2w sl0 ro kq po r3 86 7s ds 32 eu a5 8i vy vh m b 6x f6 ek n2 nf q0 hy 21 ge 57 ưy n5 0j 2n q ưa im m bn xb o8 2h 0r 9t 8r p m qy 7t fm p8 ww 1c lm ư7 of 24 ld 6z xw kh 6m ke t7 bi a6 3l pc ge wư u6 u0 ylư v1 fl 0n wr l5 ưf yx 8h w xlj 7j h6 ay dq 3i ok 5ư ưt u7 g4 r1 xu ei kd 3y db w3 60 ưs om 94 2x 1f 62 ưn 7t 9b 9n p6 u3 fx 0v ol 5t d5 il 81 qg w5 tn ql 22 4m jh d m bk b4 45 5x 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