Financial forecast

LOGO   • Nguyễn Thu Huyền • Nguyễn Minh Kha • Nguyễn Định Luật • Lê Thị Kim Luyến Group’s members      !  " # $   % % A financial forecast is simply a financial plan or budget for your business. How often should we do a financial forecast? Monthly Weekly An annual % % Compare: forecast vs reality + Identify the cause of variation -> make right decision (before it becomes a major trouble). + Prepare the forecast more correctly next year. How to create a financial forecast? How to create a financial forecast? Collect the annual incomes & expenses Collect the annual incomes & expenses Assess the incomes Assess the incomes Assess the expense => estimate increase or decrease it for the next year Assess the expense => estimate increase or decrease it for the next year Total incomes & expenses => total net income Total incomes & expenses => total net income & &  Qualitative methods: Judgmental, Consensus, Expert  Quantitative methods: Trend Analysis, Multiple Regression Analysis, Time-Series Analysis. In fact, we usually combine both of 2 methods above to improve forecasting accuracy. Demonstrates the financial viability of a new business To measure the actual financial operation of the business against the forecast financial plan => make adjustments Guide your business in the right direction and take control of your cash flow. Provides a benchmark against which to measure future performance Identifies potential risks & cash shortfalls Estimate of future cash needs and whether additional private equity or borrowing Secure a bank loan or other funding THE ADVANTAGES OF AN EFFECTIVE FINANCIAL FORECAST    Development history over 100 years with the first project in Hai Phong Cement Factory, built in 1889, marking the advent of the Vietnam Cement industry  1926 – 1936, three small cement factory with equipment from Denmark was installed.  1965 - 1968, installed 4 rotary kiln cement factory by method of Romania. HISTORY HISTORY [...]... and Construction  Port services, warehouse rental, transportation, labour services OVERVIEW Analysis and Forecasting ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING Group solvency HT1 Current ratio 2013 2012 2011 0,4 0,41 0,4 Quick ratio 0,16 0,17 0,13 Cash ratio 0,48 0,048 0,028 ratio of not much but this  Current financialHT1 over 3 years fluctuated to repay the debts number HT1 is in a negative situation, there... expenses to be a burden of company => Not good for the company 2 Debt to capital shows that weak financial strength of HT1 3 Debt to equity ratio: had a weak financial strength of MPC compared to industry => HT1 faces to increase risks of finance due to burden of interest expenses , less solvency ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING Group Profitability HT1 2013 2012 2011 ROA 0% 0% 0% ROE 0% 1% 0% ROA over 3 years... many were stagnant ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING Revenue Growth Rate 2013 2012 2011 HT1 6% 11% 21% Industry 4% 2% 20% Compared to HT1 growth rate high so it is period of development ⇒However, the industryrate ofhad revenuenot necessarily associatedinwith growth rates higher growth revenue is profits HT1 had unstable growth => investors are not interested ⇒ ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING It was found that over... shareholders' equity with borrowed capital to exploit its competitive advantage in the process of raising capital, scaling => the stock of the HT1 can not cause the attention of investors ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING Group Performance HT1 2013 2012 2011 Payables turnover 23% 18% 16% Total asset turnover 48% 44% 43% Inventories turnover 510% 405% 261% Payables Turnover increased over 3 years from 16% to... about ability of HT1 to  mostThe ratios were low, so HT1 needs to improve themeet short term liabilities becauserisks of ratios to rise liquidity and reduce when meeting current liabilities ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING HT1 2013 2012 2011 Debt to assets ratio 76% 63% 83% 60% 70% Debt to capital ratio 76% 64% 86% 62% 86% 53% Debt to equity ratio 310% 120% 606% 117% 629% 141% 1 Debt to assets ratio, HT1 has... of HT No.1 increased from 2012 to 1 st quarter of 2014 This shows that HT No.1 has worked greater efficiency and has had inefficiency or relative capital intensity of the business  The World Bank has forecast Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2014 at 5.5 percent in its latest Global Economic Prospect report, unchanged from its previous projection released earlier this year  Vicem Ha Tien 1 Cement Joint Stock . !  " # $   % % A financial forecast is simply a financial plan or budget for your business. How often should we do a financial forecast? Monthly Weekly An annual % % Compare: forecast. (before it becomes a major trouble). + Prepare the forecast more correctly next year. How to create a financial forecast? How to create a financial forecast? Collect the annual incomes & expenses Collect. above to improve forecasting accuracy. Demonstrates the financial viability of a new business To measure the actual financial operation of the business against the forecast financial plan =>