Learning Techniques for Stock and Commodity Options_3 pptx

c06 JWBK147-Smith May 8, 2008 9:52 Char Count= 80 OPTION STRATEGIES FIGURE 6.2 IBM HV-IV The most obvious first strategy to look at would be a covered call write. Let’s start with the idea of buying 100 shares and selling one contract of the Oct 115 calls. We would be receiving a premium of $2.50 and our greeks would be: Option Premium Imp Vol Delta Gamma Theta Vega Oct 115 C 2.50 22.39 .57 .0748 −.0789 .0919 Let’s now combine that with the underlying instrument to see what our net position is: Option Premium Imp Vol Delta Gamma Theta Vega Oct 115 C −2.50 22.39 −.57 −.0748 .0789 −.0919 IBM 115.55 1.00 Net Position $9,055 .43 −.0748 .0789 −.0919 c06 JWBK147-Smith May 8, 2008 9:52 Char Count= Selecting a Strategy 81 FIGURE 6.3 October Calls We would pay $11,555 for the 100 shares and receive $2,500 for our short call for a net investment of $9,055. However, the position is not ac- ceptable. We wanted to own the equivalent of 100 shares but we are only long 43 shares using this strategy. On the other hand, we like the theta and the vega. We always like the time decay working in our favor. And we have decided that we want to be short options because we think that the implied volatility is going to drop. The simple solution is to simply buy an additional 57 shares of the un- derlying IBM shares. This would give us a net position of: Option Premium Imp Vol Delta Gamma Theta Vega Oct 115 C −2.50 22.39 −.57 −.0748 .0789 −.0919 IBM 18,141 1.57 Net Position 15,641 1.00 −.0748 .0789 −.0919 Now we have exactly what we were looking for, a position that is long the stock in the correct amount but also short implied volatility and will c06 JWBK147-Smith May 8, 2008 9:52 Char Count= 82 OPTION STRATEGIES receive positive time decay every day! However, we had to come up with an additional $6,586 to accomplish it. Let’s take another look at this same situation but let’s only focus on using options to see what we come up with. Still, we want to be long about 100 shares of the stock and be short implied volatility. This time, let’s try going long an in-the-money option instead of being long the stock. Let’s start with buying the 105 call. Option Premium Imp Vol Delta Gamma Theta Vega Oct 115 C −2.50 22.39 −.57 −.0748 .0789 −.0919 Oct 105 C 11.20 31.75 .94 .016 −.0452 .0279 Net Position 8,700 .37 −.0588 .0337 −.0640 In this case, we are having to come up with $8,700 to initiate the po- sition. We are not making as much on time decay but still have good ex- posure to a decline in implied volatility. However, we are only long the equivalent of 37 shares. One alternative would be to simply triple the po- sition which would put us long slightly more than 100 shares. We would then have to come up with $26,100 for t he whole position but would have a large position in both time decay and implied volatility. Let’s try another approach. We can try selling the 120 C instead of the 115 C. Option Premium Imp Vol Delta Gamma Theta Vega Oct 120 C −.50 20.33 −.20 −.059 .0483 −.0658 Oct 105 C 11.20 31.75 .94 .016 −.0452 .0279 Net Position 10,700 .74 −.043 .0031 −.0379 Interesting. We had to come up with an additional $2 per share but we doubled our delta, basically eliminated time decay as a factor, but cut our exposure to vega by a third. Let’s take a look at the last three tables. The first choice, the covered call write is the most bullish and receives the most time decay and can capitalize the most on a decline in implied volatility. But we have to come up with the most amount of money. The second choice requires the least amount of money, about half of the first strategy. However, we receive half as much time decay which is fair given that we are investing half as much money. But notice that we are still receiving about 2 / 3 of the vega compared to the first strategy. We have gained a little efficiency here. We are getting a little more bang for c06 JWBK147-Smith May 8, 2008 9:52 Char Count= Selecting a Strategy 83 our buck. In addition, it is quite possible that we have to go for the least expensive option because we don’t have a lot of money or we need to use what money we have to diversify into other positions. The final strategy allows us to cut our investment by about 1 / 3 but we get about 3 / 4 of the price action so we are getting more price action for our investment. However, we are getting virtually no time decay so we are actually getting less bang for our buck in this category. In addition, we are investing 1 / 3 less but getting roughly 2 / 3 less vega for our money. In sum, we are getting extra power on price action but significantly less action on time decay and vega. Which strategy should we select? I usually look for the strategy that gives me the most bang for the buck, in this case the second strategy. It’s not an easy decision because they are all fairly close. You will need to look at other factors to decide, particularly how much capital you have. NOW WHAT DO I DO? Time has ticked by for about a month. Let’s see where we are now (see Figure 6.4). Prices have moved down, then up, then down and we are pretty close to where we started. Prices didn’t really follow our plan of higher prices. Neither did the implied volatility. Figure 6.5 shows that implied volatility stayed very high even though historical volatility collapsed. But we are still bullish on the stock and even more bearish on implied volatility. Let’s now see how our three strategies are doing and try to figure out what to do with each of them. FIGURE 6.4 IBM Price Chart c06 JWBK147-Smith May 8, 2008 9:52 Char Count= 84 OPTION STRATEGIES FIGURE 6.5 IBM HV-IV Strategy number one is now looking like this: Option Premium Imp Vol Delta Gamma Theta Vega Oct 115 C −3.50 27.33 −.61 −.0597 .0922 −.0907 IBM 18,141 1.57 Net Position and Profit/Loss +18.10 .96 −.0597 .0922 −.0907 Basically, nothing has happened. We’ve made $18 (big deal!), the gamma dropped, time decay has increased, and vega is roughly the same. What about the strategy that gave us more bang for the buck: Option Premium Imp Vol Delta Gamma Theta Vega Oct 115 C −3.50 27.33 −.61 −.0597 .0922 −.0907 Oct 105 C 11.40 31.67 .98 .006 −.021 .0081 Net Position −$80 .37 −.0591 .0901 −.0826 We’ve lost a grand total of $80, our delta is the same, the gamma is essentially the same, theta has almost tripled, and vega has increased. This position is even more set up for our scenario but has lost a little money. Finally, here is the third scenario: Option Premium Imp Vol Delta Gamma Theta Vega Oct 120 C −1.20 26.24 −30 −.056 .0766 −.0821 Oct 105 C 11.40 31.67 .98 .006 −.0210 .0081 Net Position −$70 .68 −.050 .0566 −.064 c06 JWBK147-Smith May 8, 2008 9:52 Char Count= Selecting a Strategy 85 We also have a little loss here, our delta is a little lower, gamma is a little higher, theta is higher, and vega has basically doubled. What do we do now? We are still bullish on the stock and bearish on the implied volatility. The first thing to do is to read the rest of the chapters in this book. They will guide you through the correct thinking to make the right moves. Now we will go through a few exercises that will help you see this book in action. Let’s start with a look at the next expiration (see Figure 6.6). Now let’s repeat where we stand with strategy number one. Option Premium Imp Vol Delta Gamma Theta Vega Oct 115 C −3.50 27.33 −.61 −.0597 .0922 −.0907 IBM 18,141 1.57 Net Position and Profit/Loss +18.10 .96 −.0597 .0922 −.0907 The Oct 115 C is just barely in-the-money. We should expect that 100 of our 157 shares will be called away when it expires. We expect that because it is in-the-money and because we are bullish. There is about $2.00 in time premium left in the short option and we should collect that even if the price of the stock is unchanged. We are in a good position with our positions in theta and vega. But let’s take a look at some alternatives. What would happen if we closed out the Oct 115 C and sold short the Nov 115 C? We’d sell the Nov at $4.50 and pick up an additional $1.00 of time premium which gives us additional $1.00 of potential profit. The gamma is about the same, time decay is must less, and vega is slightly lower. The main advantage of this would be to give us more time to FIGURE 6.6 November Calls c06 JWBK147-Smith May 8, 2008 9:52 Char Count= 86 OPTION STRATEGIES collect on the gains we expect. The Nov’s still have 43 days to expiration so we have an additional 30 days for our expected scenario to make money for us. What about buying back the Oct 115 C and sold short the Nov 120 C? Our maximum profit goes up by $5.00 per share because we have sold short an option with a strike price $5.00 higher. We are only going to receive $2.15 in premium from our short position but it gives us that $5.00 in higher profit potential. So a key part of our decision is when we think the stock price will rally and how strongly. For example, we might as well keep the Oct if we think that the price will limp along over the coming 43 days. It has more time premium and higher theta to create higher profits over the near term. However, if we believe that the price will rally sharply over the near term, then we should definitely eliminate the short Oct call and write the Nov. That will give us higher profits. What if we were to look at the Nov 120 C and sell that? The big differ- ence is that the delta is only .37. That is .24 less than the Oct 115 C that we currently have on. That means that we can sell some of our long IBM shares for a profit. The net delta would go from the current .96 up to 1.20 if we did this swap. So we could take some profits on 20 shares of IBM stock and move our net delta down to 1.00. Let’s go through the same procedure with the second strategy. Option Premium Imp Vol Delta Gamma Theta Vega Oct 115 C −3.50 27.33 −.61 −.0597 .0922 −.0907 Oct 105 C 11.40 31.67 .98 .006 −.021 .0081 Net Position −$80 .37 −.0591 .0901 −.0826 The 105 C is so far in-the-money that we can consider it as similar to being long the underlying stock. So we can simply use the analysis above to consider what to do with the 115 C. The difference is that it will expire in a short time. If it would, then both positions would expire in-the-money and be exercised, thus giving us a nice profit. However, let’s consider changing this spread into a calendar spread. Figure 6.7 shows t he January expirations. What if we were to cover the short Oct 115 C and sell a Jan 120 C? Option Premium Imp Vol Delta Gamma Theta Vega Jan 120 C −4.30 21.73 .46 −.0294 .0325 −.2509 Oct 105 C 11.40 31.67 .98 .0060 −.0210 .0081 Net Position $8,010 .52 −.0234 .0115 −.2428 c06 JWBK147-Smith May 8, 2008 9:52 Char Count= Selecting a Strategy 87 FIGURE 6.7 January Expirations Notice that we now have taken some money off the table because we are receiving more premium for the short position. Our delta is now almost 50 percent higher, our gamma gets sharply reduced, our theta is reduced to a negligible amount, but our vega is tripled. In other words, we are now getting far more of what we want for actually a lower investment. We are more long than we were before and have far more ability to make money from a decline in implied volatility. The only give up is that we won’t be earning much time decay. The idea would be to hold this position until expiration when you go through the process again. At that time, you may exercise the Oct C and turn this position from a bull calendar spread to a covered call write. Or perhaps roll the Oct C into a Nov or even Jan. USING THE TABLES Remember when we said that you will need to look at such factors as market opinion, volatility, and time decay. You will then be able to make a statement like, “I think that Widgets will move slightly higher in price, volatility will decline, and time premium will decay rapidly because we are approaching expiration.” Now you can look through the tables to find the strategy that best fits your outlook. In this case, a covered call write posi- tion probably fits the bill. Here’s how to use the table for Strategy Selection (see Figure 6.8). You need to first make a decision on your opinion of future prices. Do you think c06 JWBK147-Smith May 8, 2008 9:52 Char Count= 88 OPTION STRATEGIES Strategy Selection You are looking for: Future Implied Prices Volatility Strategy Time Decay Higher Higher Buy Call Hurts Higher Higher Bull Spread Hurts Higher Higher Buy Instrument/Buy Put Hurts Higher Lower Sell Put Helps Higher Lower Covered Call Helps Higher Neutral Conversion Neutral Lower Higher Buy Put Hurts Lower Higher Bear Spread Hurts Lower Higher Sell Instrument/Buy Call Hurts Lower Lower Sell Call Helps Lower Lower Covered Put Write Helps Lower Neutral Reverse Conversion Neutral Stable Lower Sell Straddle Helps Stable Lower Sell Strangle Helps Stable Lower Ratio Write Helps Stable Higher Sell Butterfly Neutral Stable Neutral Ratio Spread Helps Volatile Higher Buy Straddle Hurts Volatile Lower Buy Butterfly Neutral FIGURE 6.8 Strategy Selection that they will be higher, lower, stable, or volatile in the future? You then look at the table to find those strategies that fit that outlook. As you can see, the first six strategies are for when you are looking for higher prices in the future. You then look at the second column. Here, the first three strategies are supported by higher implied volatility. So assume that you are bullish on the stock but bearish on implied volatility. The chart then tells you that you have two possible strategies to focus on: sell a put or do a covered call write. These are the two strategies that will profit the most by a bullish price scenario but a bearish outlook on implied volatility. You can then look at the final column to see if time decay will help you or hurt you. This table provides all you need to make the initial cut at what strategy you should use. In this case, you have narrowed the choice down to two strategies. Now you should go to those two chapters in the book to make the final decision. c06 JWBK147-Smith May 8, 2008 9:52 Char Count= TABLE 6.1 List of Strategies Strategy Price Action Implied Volatility Time Decay Gamma Profit Potential Risk Buy a call Bullish Increasing helps Hurts Helps Unlimited Limited Buy a put Bearish Increasing helps Hurts Helps Limited Limited Naked call writing Bearish Decreasing helps Helps Hurts Limited Unlimited Covered call writing Bullish Decreasing helps Helps Hurts Limited Limited Ratio covered call writing NA NA Helps Helps Limited Unlimited Naked put writing Bullish Decreasing helps Helps Hurts Limited Unlimited Covered put 2riting Bearish Decreasing helps Helps Hurts Limited Unlimited Ratio covered put writing NA NA Helps Hurts Limited Unlimited Bull spreads Bullish Increasing helps Hurts Helps Limited Limited Bear spreads Bearish Increasing helps Hurts Helps Limited Limited Butterfly spreads Usually neutral Calendar spreads Either Either Either Either Either Either Ratio spreads Either Either Either Either Either Either Long straddles Either way a lot Increasing helps Hurts Helps Unlimited Limited Short straddles Stay stable Decreasing helps Helpts Hurts Limited Unlimited Long strangles Either way a lot Increasing helps Hurts Helps Unlimited Limited Short strangles Stay stable Decreasing helps Helpts Hurts Limited Unlimited 89 [...]... up and down, even though you are examining these particular stocks because you think they will rally This is so you can estimate their prices after both rises and falls and so you can estimate the reward from the expected rally and the risk if there is no rally Thus, for an excellent guide to the relative risk and reward of holding various options, take the implied or estimated volatility for each stock, ... is the strike price plus the call premium The formula for the simple break-even point for calls is: Simple break-even point = Strike price + call premium The price of the UI must climb by some amount before expiration for you to make any money at expiration For example, assume you bought OEX 580 options at 12 and the OEX was at 575 If the option expires and c07 JWBK147-Smith May 8, 2008 9:56 Char Count=... for a cash transaction will only be the opportunity cost and the interest income if you are posting Treasury bills for margin or if the brokerage house pays you interest on balances Carrying costs for trades on margin include the financing for the additional quantity of the UI The Maximum Risk The maximum risk is the premium paid for the option For example, your risk on the purchase of an Exxon call... Count= 94 OPTION STRATEGIES The Investment Return The investment return on a call is the profit or loss divided by the initial investment The formula is: Return = (Profit or loss) ÷ initial investment For example, if you buy an IBM option for 5 and sell it for 71 /2 , for a profit of 21 /2 , your return on investment is 50 percent (21 /2 ÷ 5 = 0.50, or 50 percent) Annualizing the return will give you another... is to first determine how much money you are willing to lose on the trade and how bullish you are, and then determine the best call strike For example, assume that you are willing to lose $2,000 on this particular trade Further assume that the at-the-money options are trading for $4 and the out-of-the-money options are trading for $2 This means that you could have twice as many of the out-of-the-money... transaction costs and carrying costs Thus, the formula is: Actual break-even point = Simple break-even point −transaction costs + carrying costs The break-even point is affected by the type of account and transaction The trade can take place using cash or on margin Transaction costs for margin trades will be more than for cash trades because interest payments must be made The carrying cost for a cash transaction... pay a higher price for a farther month just to have more time for the trade to work The extra time premium might be a cheap price to pay for several more months for the trade to work The total time decay will be larger for the longer expiration date, but the cost per day will be much less Remember, you can always liquidate the position before the time decay starts to accelerate, thus reducing significantly... much greater than near options, and you will be able to profit handsomely if the implied volatility moves significantly higher The final consideration is liquidity Far-dated options may not have good liquidity and may have to be avoided This is a lesser problem if you intend to hold the position to expiration and will not have to exit early In sum, the critical considerations for the selection of the expiration... of intrinsic value with the OEX at 582 At expiration, the option has no time value You, therefore, bought the option at 12, and, at expiration, it was worth 2 The OEX needed to rise to 592 before you would have profited You can lose money before the expiration of the contract if the price of the UI declines For example, suppose the UI went from 550 to 545 the first day after you bought a call The value... but you do not know which stock or option to buy because you do not pick specific stocks You could rank the options of the computer stocks by criteria that fit your trading style As a suggestion, consider ranking the options by a risk/reward ratio First, pick a time horizon For example, you expect the move to higher prices to occur over the coming three months Assume that each stock in the industry group . C and sell a Jan 120 C? Option Premium Imp Vol Delta Gamma Theta Vega Jan 120 C −4 .30 21. 73 .46 −.0294 . 032 5 −.2509 Oct 105 C 11.40 31 .67 .98 .0060 −.0210 .0081 Net Position $8,010 .52 −.0 234 . divided by the initial investment. The formula is: Return = (Profit or loss) ÷ initial investment For example, if you buy an IBM option for 5 and sell it for 7 1 / 2 ,fora profit of 2 1 / 2 , your return. are trading for $4 and the out-of-the-money options are trading for $2. This means that you could have twice as many of the out-of-the-money options as you could of the at-the-money options. This