Trading winning in today forex marke_7 pot

The FOREX Marketplace 173 or bad—that occurs in a mostly contiguous area of the matrix (clusters) can tell you much about the manager’s trading methods. A short track record with a broad ME sample may be better than a long track record with hot and cold ME clusters. See Chapter 18, “Improving Your Trading Skills,” for more on ME applications to trading. Peter Panholzer One of the most respected names in the managed FOREX business is Peter Panholzer. Already in 1979 Peter Panholzer ran what is today believed to be the first-ever systematically managed currency program offered to the general public at large, the Magnum Program at ContiCommodity, with over 300 accounts, indeed a very early example of currency alpha as a separate independent asset class. (See Figure 13.10.) Table 13.1 A 10 ×× 10 DP/V ME Matrix 12345678910 1111111111 12345678910 2222222222 12345678910 3333333333 3333333333 4444444444 12345678910 5555555555 12345678910 6666666666 12345678910 7777777777 12345678910 8888888888 12345678910 9999999999 12345678910 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Chapter 13_[157-178].qxd 2/24/10 10:12 PM Page 173 THE TOOLS OF THE TRADE 174 Mr. Panholzer, Partner of DynexCorp, offers our readers a brief summary of the latest managed money trend, Investable FX Indices. FXSelect utilizes a pool of managers and rotates them in and out of action based on proprietary performance algorithms: FIGURE 13.10 DynexCorp Source: DynexCorp, Ltd, www.dynexcorp.com After 30 years of toiling to achieve episodic profits in currency trading, my whole outlook on life (and stress) has changed since I am involved in what I deem the best—and unmatched—risk-adjusted returns currently available in the FX field. DynexCorp was invited by Deutsche Bank London AG, alongside with Mercer Consulting and Parker Global Strategies, to be index archi- tects for Deutsche Bank’s FXSelect platform. Highlights: • Index developed and managed by DynexCorp, by invitation of Deutsche Bank • Investable Custom FX Index designed and managed by DynexCorp using the pioneering Deutsche Bank FXSelect Platform • This index is superior to any single FX manager performance, and also superior to simple equally weighted allocation – the index dynamically represents the best 5 to 15 of 70 currency alpha managers at any point in time Chapter 13_[157-178].qxd 2/24/10 10:12 PM Page 174 The FOREX Marketplace A number of companies track individual and fund FOREX account per- formance. • www.parkerglobal.com • www.managedfutures.com • www.mainfo.org Advisory Services Almost every magazine and newsletter today is either online or available online. Gone forever are the glory days of the hardcopy Harry Schultz Letter, Dines Letter, Holt Advisory, and Myer’s Energy and Finance. FOREX Market letters and signal services are reviewed on www .forexpeacearmy.com WDFX www.wdfx.co.uk Trust me on this. I do not normally recommend Signal services. But Mark at WDFX Forex is good. He’s a longer term trader in a world of scalpers. They also offer a Trading Room forum and an Expert Advisor. 175 • High Sharpe Ratio, Low Volatility • Daily Liquidity • Stop-Loss monitored and guaranteed by Deutsche Bank Why investable FX index? Single currency manager performances are notoriously EPISODIC. The message to investors is: Don’t hire single currency managers. This is our FXSelect edge: 1. Our quantitative and qualitative selection algorithm: As veteran FX manager we are familiar with many traders and their styles; our quantitative model very quickly determines “exclusions.” 2. We use only “real” daily data achieved on the FXSelect platform: Historic data supplied “on a reported basis” are not as reliable as the “real” daily data achieved on the FXSelect platform. 3. We can switch managers on any day and at no cost: When investing in conventional multi-manager currency funds, consider that the manager selection process is costly and the manager selection length is quite inflexible. —Peter Panholzer Chapter 13_[157-178].qxd 2/24/10 10:12 PM Page 175 THE TOOLS OF THE TRADE 176 An excellent supplement to your own trading tools. Of course, past per- formance is never a guarantee of future results, but WDFX has some solid FX benchmarks indicating some long-term staying power. Currency Bulletin www.currencybulletin.com An interesting FOREX newsletter/advi- sory with a long track record in FOREX. The author uses this serv- ice as a check on his own long-term chart analysis. GoodmanWorks www.goodmanworks.com The author publishes the GoodmanWorks Blog 6–8 times each week. It focuses on the Goodman trading methods—Goodman Wave Theory and Market Environments, offering instruction as well as trading ideas. The web site also updates this book, answers readers questions, and digs deeper on topics in this book with the Getting Started Blog. EuroTrader www.eurusdtrader.com Jimmy Young’s advisory service has attracted a loyal following. One focus is trading vis-à-vis the fre- quent news releases in the FOREX arena. If you plan to be a self-directed trader, consider using two advi- sory services: one of them to complement your own analysis and one of them “out-of-the-box” to give you a fresh perspective. I use two services to confirm my own work but rarely follow the trade recommendations unless they also match up with my own thinking. Online Reference Guides www.investopedia.com Superior reference on technical analysis, charting, and other aspects of trading. New articles are published almost daily. Material is geared to the new and inexperienced trader and leading-edge ideas are discouraged. Spread and Binary Betting Spread Betting It has been said that retail FOREX market makers are essen- tially bookmakers. You might wish to consider spread or binary betting on cur- rencies. Be sure to check the legality where you reside. Most of these offer binary options on currencies in a variety of flavors. www.deltaindex.com One of the oldest spread betting web sites. Chapter 13_[157-178].qxd 2/24/10 10:12 PM Page 176 The FOREX Marketplace www.fxbt.com This web site offers binary options in a number of markets, including FOREX. You take a yes or no side to a financial question such as “Will the EUR/USD go over 1.3700?” Or you can speculate on the likelihood of a hurricane. Government-regulated and open only to U.S. citizens. www.nadax.com Trade the political, financial, and weather events that make up at least part of the fundamental picture for currencies. www.igindex.co.uk Offers a dealing platform and charts. Periodicals—In Print and Online www.forexjournal.com Forex Journal is the sister publication to Trader’s Journal. Editor Dickson Yap does an excellent job with both. Unlike many editors in this space he is not afraid of new ideas. Content is varied and stimulating. See Figure 13.11. www.currencytradermag.com Excellent content although it tends to mainstream ideas for the most part. www.e-FOREX.net By subscription, pricey but excellent if you are serious about the inner workings of the FOREX industry. 177 FIGURE 13.11 Forex Journal Chapter 13_[157-178].qxd 2/24/10 10:12 PM Page 177 THE TOOLS OF THE TRADE 178 Euro Money Magazine www.euromoney.com Futures Magazine www.futuresmag.com Just a shell of its former glory days when Darrell Jobman was editor. FX – Week Magazine www.fxweek.com Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities www.traders.com A 25-year treasure trove of technical analysis. If you can afford it, buy their complete articles volumes, available in hard copy or dvd. Books www.traderspress.com I would be remiss if I did not accord special mention to Ed Dobson’s Traders Press, www.traderspress.com, which has been around for decades. They carry a number of FOREX-specific books as well as hundreds of newly published and reprinted books on technical analysis. One of the author’s all-time favorite market books is Mr. Dobson’s The Trading Rule That Can Make You Rich (Traders Press, 1979). For specific titles and out-of-print books, see www.abebooks.com, www.amazon.com, www.bn.com, www.alibris.com, and the ubiquitous www.ebay.com. Summary As I stated at the beginning of the chapter, this is but a small sampling of what is available to the currency market participant. Armed with these links and a reliable bookmark manager, you should be able to navigate to almost anything in the burgeoning FOREX marketplace. Begin with some idea of what you want and need, but be open to new and out-of-the-box ideas, also. Chapter 13_[157-178].qxd 2/24/10 10:12 PM Page 178 14 Retail FX Platforms Chapter M any FOREX brokers use their own proprietary platform, but the trend is to use one of a number of standard cross-broker platforms that have become popular. This is a potential win-win-win situation. The broker wins by not having to invest large amounts of money in constant development, the platform vendor can concentrate on upgrading their service with new fea- tures and more stability, and the trader just sits back and makes money trading. Platform vendors make every effort to get as many brokers to offer their platform as possible, not just because it means more business. When traders shop platforms they want to know that if Broker ABC does not pan out for them they can go to Broker XYZ and use the platform they have become accus- tomed to trading. Here I am discussing the front-end trading terminal. There is the back-end server software and setup, which is required (in most cases) for the broker to have installed to run the client terminals. TIP: You may need to dig deep on a broker’s web site to find which trad- ing platforms it supports. Sometimes the Search function will help. The vendors also usually list the brokers who currently use their platforms. The reviews below are ordered on a mix of popularity, broker support, and feature-richness, based on my research. Many brokers use multiple platforms and some offer one of these exclusively. Of course, popularity should not be your only criteria. You want to be comfortable with both your broker and your trading platform. Table 14.1 lists the candidates. 179 Chapter 14_[179-190].qxd 2/24/10 10:12 PM Page 179 Professional FX Platforms There are a number of trading platforms designed for the professional trader, which are beyond the scope of this work but merit a mention. (See Table 14.2.) Several retail FOREX brokers now offer the Currenex platform to their clients. Trading Platform Features A trading platform is defined by the features it offers to users. Brokers look for what the platform offers to them on the server side. For each platform we review the following: Connectivity to the broker’s data feed. Integrated order entry and management. Without these two features a platform is not fully integrated with the broker- dealer. Charts and indicators Almost every retail FX trader uses charts and indicators. The sheer number and permutations of these available—especially indicators— is simply staggering. TABLE 14.1 Retail FOREX Platforms NinjaTrader www.ninjatrader.com eSignal www.esignal.com ProTrader www.protrader.com MetaTrader www.metaquotes.net TradeStation www.tradestation.com StrategyRunner www.strategyrunner.com FXCM www.fxcm.com TABLE 14.2 Professional FOREX Platform Currenex www.currenex.com FlexFX www.flextrade.com FXall www.fxall.com HotspotFX www.hotspotfx.com ProTraderPlus www.fxbridge.com THE TOOLS OF THE TRADE 180 Chapter 14_[179-190].qxd 2/24/10 10:12 PM Page 180 Depth of market (DOM) This shows standing orders in the market and the amount bid or asked at prices near the last price. It is useful information for placing orders—especially large ones that might eat several bids or asks in execution. Scripting or programming language Advanced traders often wish to program their own indicators and trading systems or EAs. These can vary in ease of use and capabili- ties. Generally, the easier they are to use, the less robust. Testing and historical data Traders want to test their ideas and their programs on the same plat- form on which they will ultimately live trade them. Simulated trad- ing, a form of back-testing, is all the rage. API connectivity Advanced traders may wish to create a program too complex for the trading platform’s scripting language, in which case they will need to tap into the broker’s data feed, then port the program in some fash- ion to the trading platform. As the capabilities of these platforms advance, I predict this need will all but disappear in the next few years. NinjaScript version 7 is in many respects superior to API. Automated trading The ability to automatically execute the trades generated by a trad- ing system or EA is becoming more and more popular. But it is not for the novice. In the past stability has been an issue for currency trading plat- forms. But all of those listed here may be considered stable and reli- able with two caveats—some tend to take more computer resources than others and all have at least a few small bugs. In combination with a live data feed these are enormously complex programs requir- ing a sophisticated server-client arrangement. The author has used the MetaTrader platform for years but is migrating to NinjaTrader. I am something of a service fanatic. NinjaTrader’s support is excellent whereas multiple e-mails to Metaquotes went unanswered. NinjaTrader’s feature set and script- ing language is better than MQL4 or MQL5—at least for my needs. I have worked with all of the platforms listed and they all are sta- ble and feature-rich. Some are definitely better than others but much of the decision on which one you choose is based on personal needs Retail FX Platforms 181 Chapter 14_[179-190].qxd 2/24/10 10:12 PM Page 181 and personal tastes. All of them have many loyal and adoring fans. The new trader can definitely live without Depth of Market, Scripting Language, API Connectivity, and Automated Trading. NinjaTrader NinjaTrader is currently on version 6.5. A major upgrade, version 7.0 was expected in the first quarter of 2010—it has been anxiously awaited by NinjaTrader aficionados. The author was in the beta group and came away very impressed. NinjaTrader is more customizable than MetaTrader. The flip side of the coin is that it is more difficult to set up and learn. Pre-built configurations or a modular approach would help the neophyte ease into this truly awesome plat- form. NinjaTrader does offer many live and on-demand webcasts to assist traders with all aspects of application. Support from the vendor is stellar. Their user forum is lively and offers much advice on using the platform and develop- ing systems and methods with NinjaScript. NinjaTrader has some excellent features. Two the author appreciates are Market Replay and Strategy Analyzer. For U.S. traders who miss the ability to hedge positions, Ninja allows all orders to be entered into its system—and only sent for execution as price targets and other parameters are met in real time. The NinjaScript language is a C# subset with add-on functions and objects for system development. Navigation is a little tricky as the charts in a Workspace cannot be docked. Also, if you have very high resolution monitors you may need to make font size adjustments to allow all text to fit in some NinjaTrader windows. Version 7 is much less a resource hog than previous versions and—it appears—the list of frustrating little bugs is down substantially. The number of NinjaTrader users is growing quickly and more broker support in FOREX is likely to follow. Report Card: Broker Support: B, Features: A+, Stability: B, Vendor Support: A+, Ergonomics and Ease of Use: B, Third-Party Support: B+. See Figure 14.1. MetaTrader The current leader of the pack. Dozens of foreign and domestic brokers offer MetaTrader as either their primary platform of as one of the platforms in their stable. I have no numbers but MetaTrader through the life of their MetaTrader- 4 (MT4) has garnished a substantial percentage of the business. While MetaTrader has its own forum and there are three other popular MetaTrader forums, the company itself does not offer direct support to end-users. They THE TOOLS OF THE TRADE 182 Chapter 14_[179-190].qxd 2/24/10 10:12 PM Page 182 [...]... I detail a basic, simple FOREX trading plan and some examples of how it works for me in real-time trading You certainly want to modify it and customize it to your own needs, skills, experience, and techniques I am assuming that you have selected a broker, created a KIS toolbox for making trading decisions, and are comfortable with the broker’s trading platform You can certainly practice your plan with... back-end In that regard I recommend carefully reading the reviews for this broker Report Card: Broker Support: B−, Features: B+, Stability: B+, Vendor Support: B−, Ergonomics and Ease of Use: B+, Third-Party Support: N/A TIP: Know your trading platform inside and out before live trading Navigating a trading platform and such mechanical tasks as order placement and management must be second nature FOREX trading. .. Session Planning This is your reference for however you find a prospective trade Its primary purpose is to make sure you do not skip important parts of finding a trade and following through on it Go from general to specific, gradually qualifying trades as they meet your trading method benchmarks A heuristic is a series of questions or operations you must work through to find a trade I call finding a trade... 14.1 183 NinjaTrader www.ninjatrader.com seem a tad cocky and are obviously enjoying their well-earned success in the marketplace But there is a Yin and a Yang to everything As this book goes to press MetaTrader-5 (MT5) with its new object-oriented scripting language (MQL5) was just released to the public beta testing; unfortunately too late for a full review It was scheduled for release in the summer... answered Kid in a Candy Store All of these platforms are great fun to explore But keep focused on your current requirements and where you anticipate you will be in one or two years Switching platforms is certainly possible—I have done it twice in ten years But that is not fun Beginning with a well thought out list of your needs and a thorough due diligence of several candidates, a trading platform... the time of this writing although it is not yet available to brokers and is still in beta testing Indicators and expert advisors for MT4 will not work as-is—upward compatibility is limited; only the simplest of indicators will not need to be rebuilt The client terminal of MT5 has a dazzling array of graphic features, new indicators, and 21 time frames for charts The new scripting language, MQL5, is... having no plan at all—is making it too complicated and involved TIP: The Plan—Keep It Simple! It is of no value if you do not use it consistently F 193 194 THE COMPLETE FOREX TRADER Parts of the Plan The Plan may be separated into three steps: 1 Pretrade Planning 2 Trade Session Planning 3 Post-Trade Planning The FX markets run 24 hours nonstop from Sunday afternoon to Saturday afternoon, the continental... Again, feel free to add, subtract, or modify them accordingly See Table 15.1 You can keep all of this information in longhand or on a computer I much prefer keeping them on computer files—Word documents and Excel Table 15.1 Trade Plan Materials Mission-Critical Information Sheet Trading Tables (from Chapter 6) 30 Trade Campaign Worksheet Log Charts Biofeedback Chart Trade Heuristic Worksheet Continuation... the way to go That said, I make hard copies of much of it for study and ready reference TIP: All of these are in the Getting Started section of www goodmanworks.com Mission-Critical Information Sheet This should be information at your fingertips during every trading session Most of it pertains to your broker and your account See Figure 15.1 Biofeedback Form I know, this sounds really silly and so 1960s... who wish to get a feel for building their own indicators and trading systems The TradeStation MATRIX may be the best of the Depth of Market tools in the class The historical database is extensive The platform design and layout is intuitive and comfortable, but the single broker aspect is an issue for many FOREX traders TradeStation did not reply to multiple requests for information The above review is . Matrix 12345 678 910 1111111111 12345 678 910 2222222222 12345 678 910 3333333333 3333333333 4444444444 12345 678 910 5555555555 12345 678 910 6666666666 12345 678 910 77 777 777 77 12345 678 910 8888888888 12345 678 910 9999999999 12345 678 910 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Chapter 13_[1 57- 178 ].qxd 2/24/10 10:12 PM Page 173 THE TOOLS. are serious about the inner workings of the FOREX industry. 177 FIGURE 13.11 Forex Journal Chapter 13_[1 57- 178 ].qxd 2/24/10 10:12 PM Page 177 THE TOOLS OF THE TRADE 178 Euro Money Magazine www.euromoney.com Futures. spread betting web sites. Chapter 13_[1 57- 178 ].qxd 2/24/10 10:12 PM Page 176 The FOREX Marketplace www.fxbt.com This web site offers binary options in a number of markets, including FOREX. You