(LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) the causal relationship between money supply, inflation and economic growth in vietnam

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY VIETNAM INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES THE HAGUE THE NETHERLANDS VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MONEY SUPPLY, INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN VIETNAM BY NGUYỄN TRỌNG TÍN MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY, DECEMBER 2013 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY VIETNAM INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES THE HAGUE THE NETHERLANDS VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MONEY SUPPLY, INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN VIETNAM A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ART IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS By NGUYỄN TRỌNG TÍN Academic Supervisor: Assoc Prof Dr NGUYỄN VĂN NGÃI HO CHI MINH CITY, DECEMBER 2013 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com Declaration “This thesis is submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Art in Development Economic to Vietnam - The Netherlands Programme I certify that the thesis has not already been submitted for any degree To the best of my knowledge, the thesis comprises only my original work All sources used have been cited and acknowledged in the thesis.” Nguyễn Trọng Tín i TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com Acknowledgement I would like to express my deep gratitude to my academic supervisor, Assoc Prof Dr Nguyễn Văn Ngãi for his advices and helpful comments in this thesis My dearest thanks to Assoc Prof Dr Nguyễn Trọng Hoài and Dr Phạm Khánh Nam, who gave me many profound comments when this thesis was just in form of ideas My special thanks to Dr Nguyễn Hoàng Bảo and Dr Phùng Thanh Bình, I would not complete this thesis without their support in term of econometric techniques I would like to thank to all lecturers and staffs at the Vietnam – Netherlands Programme for their knowledge and patience during the period I studied at the program Finally, I would like to thank to my family, close friends, colleagues for their love and everything they gave me in life ii TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com List of Abbreviations ADF Augmented Dickey-Fuller AIC Akaike’s Information Criterion AS-AD Aggregate Demand – Aggregate Supply model CPI Consumer Price Index ECT Error Correction Term GDP Gross Domestic Product GSO General Statistic Office HQ Hannan-Quinn information criterion IFS International Finance Statistic LR Likelihood ratio test M2 Broad money PP Phillips and Perron SIC Schwarz’s Information Criterion VECM Vector Error Correction Model iii TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam Abstract This study analyzes the causal relationships between money supply, inflation and economic growth in Vietnam in the period of 1999Q2 – 2012Q3 Quarterly macroeconomic data were collected from IFS and GSO The thesis employs the Granger test in the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) environment to find the Granger causal nexus of three variables for both in short run and long run There is one cointegration was found from Johansen’s test for cointegration The results show that there is a bidirectional relationship between economic growth and inflation for both in the short run and long run, and there are two unidirectional causalities from money supply to growth and inflation However, there is no evidence for the effectiveness of monetary policy in the short run Keywords: Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality, VECM, money supply, inflation, economic growth iv TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam TABLE OF CONTENTS Declaration i Acknowledgement ii List of abbreviations iii Abstract iv Table of contents v List of tables viii List of figures ix CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Problem statement 1.2 Research objectives .4 1.3 Research questions 1.4 Scope of the study and methodology .5 1.5 Organization of the thesis CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Theoretical literature 2.1.1 Theories about the Inflation – Economic growth relationship 2.1.2 Theories about the Inflation – Money supply relationship .9 2.1.3 Theories about the Money supply – Economic growth relationship 11 v TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam Appendix 3: Vector Error Correction Estimates Vector Error Correction Estimates Date: 11/27/13 Time: 12:15 Sample (adjusted): 54 Included observations: 49 after adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ] Cointegrating Eq: CointEq1 LNCPI(-1) 1.000000 LNM2(-1) -0.431159 (0.03537) [-12.1891] GROWTH(-1) -7.056420 (7.35880) [-0.95891] C 1.458701 Error Correction: D(LNCPI) D(LNM2) D(GROWTH) CointEq1 -0.069841 (0.01972) [-3.54162] -0.024474 (0.04380) [-0.55879] -0.024740 (0.01175) [-2.10508] D(LNCPI(-1)) 0.550027 (0.16871) [ 3.26020] 0.081486 (0.37470) [ 0.21747] -0.187057 (0.10055) [-1.86042] D(LNCPI(-2)) -0.060593 (0.19866) [-0.30501] -0.682706 (0.44121) [-1.54734] -0.051458 (0.11839) [-0.43464] D(LNCPI(-3)) -0.203900 (0.19263) [-1.05851] 0.781259 (0.42782) [ 1.82613] -0.130241 (0.11480) [-1.13450] D(LNCPI(-4)) 0.050090 (0.13816) [ 0.36257] -0.321450 (0.30684) [-1.04762] 0.083226 (0.08234) [ 1.01080] D(LNM2(-1)) -0.131542 (0.08290) [-1.58679] 0.759739 (0.18411) [ 4.12646] -0.060792 (0.04940) [-1.23050] D(LNM2(-2)) 0.180141 -0.733170 -0.034805 61 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam (0.09311) [ 1.93474] (0.20679) [-3.54546] (0.05549) [-0.62723] D(LNM2(-3)) -0.027470 (0.05872) [-0.46784] 0.325212 (0.13041) [ 2.49384] -0.003418 (0.03499) [-0.09767] D(LNM2(-4)) 0.100593 (0.05098) [ 1.97302] -0.055591 (0.11323) [-0.49093] 0.022821 (0.03038) [ 0.75105] D(GROWTH(-1)) -0.643154 (0.32302) [-1.99108] -0.169388 (0.71741) [-0.23611] -1.473605 (0.19251) [-7.65476] D(GROWTH(-2)) -0.483212 (0.29992) [-1.61115] -0.142992 (0.66611) [-0.21467] -1.449226 (0.17874) [-8.10796] D(GROWTH(-3)) -0.343503 (0.28548) [-1.20325] -0.138134 (0.63404) [-0.21786] -1.430917 (0.17014) [-8.41037] D(GROWTH(-4)) -0.275048 (0.27474) [-1.00112] -0.042562 (0.61019) [-0.06975] -0.363777 (0.16374) [-2.22172] C 0.008656 (0.00850) [ 1.01863] 0.045145 (0.01887) [ 2.39205] 0.012176 (0.00506) [ 2.40425] 0.806970 0.735272 0.004160 0.010902 11.25527 160.1388 -5.964850 -5.424329 0.020152 0.021188 0.550742 0.383874 0.020518 0.024212 3.300476 121.0395 -4.368961 -3.828441 0.059769 0.030846 0.999863 0.999812 0.001477 0.006497 19663.14 185.4996 -6.999985 -6.459465 -0.007223 0.474157 R-squared Adj R-squared Sum sq resids S.E equation F-statistic Log likelihood Akaike AIC Schwarz SC Mean dependent S.D dependent Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.) 2.05E-12 Determinant resid covariance 7.46E-13 Log likelihood 475.5507 Akaike information criterion -17.57350 Schwarz criterion -15.83611 62 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam Appendix 4: Inflation equation in VECM model Dependent Variable: D(LNCPI) Method: Least Squares Date: 11/27/13 Time: 12:23 Sample (adjusted): 54 Included observations: 49 after adjustments D(LNCPI) = C(1)*( LNCPI(-1) - 0.431158887994*LNM2(-1) 7.05642021657*GROWTH(-1) + 1.45870102328 ) + C(2)*D(LNCPI(-1)) + C(3)*D(LNCPI(-2)) + C(4)*D(LNCPI(-3)) + C(5)*D(LNCPI(-4)) + C(6) *D(LNM2(-1)) + C(7)*D(LNM2(-2)) + C(8)*D(LNM2(-3)) + C(9)*D(LNM2( -4)) + C(10)*D(GROWTH(-1)) + C(11)*D(GROWTH(-2)) + C(12) *D(GROWTH(-3)) + C(13)*D(GROWTH(-4)) + C(14) Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic C(1) C(2) C(3) C(4) C(5) C(6) C(7) C(8) C(9) C(10) C(11) C(12) C(13) C(14) -0.069841 0.550027 -0.060593 -0.203900 0.050090 -0.131542 0.180141 -0.027470 0.100593 -0.643154 -0.483212 -0.343503 -0.275048 0.008656 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.806970 0.735272 0.010902 0.004160 160.1388 11.25527 0.000000 0.019720 0.168710 0.198658 0.192629 0.138155 0.082898 0.093109 0.058716 0.050984 0.323018 0.299917 0.285480 0.274741 0.008498 -3.541622 3.260200 -0.305010 -1.058513 0.362565 -1.586791 1.934745 -0.467842 1.973022 -1.991080 -1.611153 -1.203246 -1.001118 1.018625 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat Prob 0.0011 0.0025 0.7622 0.2971 0.7191 0.1216 0.0611 0.6428 0.0564 0.0543 0.1161 0.2370 0.3236 0.3154 0.020152 0.021188 -5.964850 -5.424329 -5.759777 1.637705 63 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam Appendix 5: Money supply equation in VECM model Dependent Variable: D(LNM2) Method: Least Squares Date: 11/27/13 Time: 12:24 Sample (adjusted): 54 Included observations: 49 after adjustments D(LNM2) = C(15)*( LNCPI(-1) - 0.431158887994*LNM2(-1) 7.05642021657*GROWTH(-1) + 1.45870102328 ) + C(16)*D(LNCPI( -1)) + C(17)*D(LNCPI(-2)) + C(18)*D(LNCPI(-3)) + C(19)*D(LNCPI(-4)) + C(20)*D(LNM2(-1)) + C(21)*D(LNM2(-2)) + C(22)*D(LNM2(-3)) + C(23)*D(LNM2(-4)) + C(24)*D(GROWTH(-1)) + C(25)*D(GROWTH(-2)) + C(26)*D(GROWTH(-3)) + C(27)*D(GROWTH(-4)) + C(28) Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic C(15) C(16) C(17) C(18) C(19) C(20) C(21) C(22) C(23) C(24) C(25) C(26) C(27) C(28) R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) -0.024474 0.081486 -0.682706 0.781259 -0.321450 0.759739 -0.733170 0.325212 -0.055591 -0.169388 -0.142992 -0.138134 -0.042562 0.045145 0.550742 0.383874 0.024212 0.020518 121.0395 3.300476 0.002420 0.043797 0.374699 0.441214 0.427823 0.306838 0.184114 0.206792 0.130406 0.113235 0.717413 0.666107 0.634043 0.610191 0.018873 -0.558793 0.217472 -1.547337 1.826128 -1.047621 4.126455 -3.545455 2.493844 -0.490933 -0.236109 -0.214668 -0.217862 -0.069752 2.392045 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat Prob 0.5799 0.8291 0.1308 0.0764 0.3020 0.0002 0.0011 0.0175 0.6265 0.8147 0.8313 0.8288 0.9448 0.0223 0.059769 0.030846 -4.368961 -3.828441 -4.163888 1.928925 64 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam Appendix 6: Growth equation in VECM model Dependent Variable: D(GROWTH) Method: Least Squares Date: 11/27/13 Time: 12:25 Sample (adjusted): 54 Included observations: 49 after adjustments D(GROWTH) = C(29)*( LNCPI(-1) - 0.431158887994*LNM2(-1) 7.05642021657*GROWTH(-1) + 1.45870102328 ) + C(30)*D(LNCPI( -1)) + C(31)*D(LNCPI(-2)) + C(32)*D(LNCPI(-3)) + C(33)*D(LNCPI(-4)) + C(34)*D(LNM2(-1)) + C(35)*D(LNM2(-2)) + C(36)*D(LNM2(-3)) + C(37)*D(LNM2(-4)) + C(38)*D(GROWTH(-1)) + C(39)*D(GROWTH(-2)) + C(40)*D(GROWTH(-3)) + C(41)*D(GROWTH(-4)) + C(42) Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic C(29) C(30) C(31) C(32) C(33) C(34) C(35) C(36) C(37) C(38) C(39) C(40) C(41) C(42) R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) -0.024740 -0.187057 -0.051458 -0.130241 0.083226 -0.060792 -0.034805 -0.003418 0.022821 -1.473605 -1.449226 -1.430917 -0.363777 0.012176 0.011752 0.100546 0.118394 0.114801 0.082336 0.049405 0.055490 0.034993 0.030385 0.192508 0.178741 0.170137 0.163737 0.005064 0.999863 0.999812 0.006497 0.001477 185.4996 19663.14 0.000000 -2.105076 -1.860422 -0.434638 -1.134498 1.010803 -1.230499 -0.627235 -0.097667 0.751052 -7.654762 -8.107965 -8.410373 -2.221716 2.404254 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat Prob 0.0425 0.0712 0.6665 0.2643 0.3190 0.2267 0.5346 0.9228 0.4576 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0329 0.0216 -0.007223 0.474157 -6.999985 -6.459465 -6.794913 2.087720 65 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam Appendix 7: VEC Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Tests VEC Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Tests Date: 11/26/13 Time: 20:56 Sample: 54 Included observations: 49 Dependent variable: D(GROWTH) Excluded Chi-sq df Prob D(LNCPI) D(LNM2) 19.85389 1.621918 4 0.0005 0.8048 All 23.88853 0.0024 Dependent variable: D(LNCPI) Excluded Chi-sq df Prob D(GROWTH) D(LNM2) 30.82912 7.718190 4 0.0000 0.1025 All 40.89568 0.0000 Dependent variable: D(LNM2) Excluded Chi-sq df Prob D(GROWTH) D(LNCPI) 7.122175 5.221820 4 0.1296 0.2653 All 18.49413 0.0178 66 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam Appendix 8: Impulse response to Cholesky Period Period Period Response of LNCPI: LNCPI GROWTH 0.010902 0.017596 0.017668 0.012406 0.004776 -0.001450 -0.004707 -0.005495 0.000000 -0.000776 -9.50E-05 0.000505 0.001044 0.001795 0.002794 0.003716 Response of GROWTH: LNCPI GROWTH -0.002167 -0.001101 -0.001302 -0.001506 -0.001570 -5.70E-05 -4.80E-05 -0.000648 0.006125 -0.001760 0.000929 -0.000293 0.006436 -0.001947 0.000857 -0.000472 Response of LNM2: LNCPI GROWTH -0.011178 -0.019175 -0.024645 -0.023358 -0.019902 -0.019256 -0.020395 -0.021277 -0.001432 -0.002514 -0.002202 -0.001086 -0.001185 -0.001428 -0.001136 -0.001118 LNM2 0.000000 -0.002174 -0.000224 0.004729 0.010016 0.012875 0.012943 0.011513 LNM2 0.000000 -0.001074 -0.000563 -0.000203 0.000342 -0.002290 -0.001693 -0.000515 LNM2 0.021430 0.037937 0.035039 0.029692 0.029483 0.030611 0.029819 0.029102 Cholesky Ordering: LNCPI GROWTH LNM2 67 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.causal.relationship.between.money.supply inflation.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam