Evaluation of decision making policy on public private partnership transport projects in vietnam

TRY OF EDUCATION FOREIGN TRADE AND TRAINI UNIVERSITY MASTER THESIS EVALUATION OF DECISION-MAKING POLICY ON PUBLIC - PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP TRANSPORT PROJECTS IN VIETNAM Specialization: International Trade Policy and Law NGUYEN THI MINH HIEU Hanoi - 2023 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION FOREIGN TRADE AND TRAINI UNIVERSITY MASTER THESIS EVALUATION OF DECISION-MAKING POLICY ON PUBLIC - PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP TRANSPORT PROJECTS IN VIETNAM Major: International Economics Specialization: International Trade Policy and Law Code: 8310106 Full name: Nguyen Thi Minh Hieu Supervisor: Dr Ly Hoang Phu Hanoi - 2023 DECLARATION I hereby state that the work is that of the author solely acknowledgement has been made The contents and results completely honest The information, data and documents which various sources for analysis and evaluation have been fully cited except where due of this Thesis are are collected from in the main content and in the references list of this master thesis as well I make this statement in full knowledge of and understanding that, should it be found to be false, I will not receive a grade and may face disciplinary proceedings Nguyen Thi Minh Hieu July 2023 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Master program in International Trade Policy and Law at the Foreign Trade University presents a remarkable opportunity for me to fulfill my aspirations to find effective tools for policy creation and evaluation I would like to express my deepest gratitude to Foreign Trade University, Faculty of Graduate Studies, teachers, and other specialists, who always supports during my study with their knowledge, encouragement and sharing My sincerest gratitude goes to my supervisor, Dr Ly Hoang Phu, for his intellectual advice and guidance over my thesis His knowledgeable advice is a compass for my journey throughout my dissertation This endeavor would not have been possible without inspiration, enthusiasm, and dedication from the lecturers of Assoc Prof Hoang Xuan Binh, Assoc Prof Nguyen Thi Tuong Anh, Dr Luong Thi Ngoc Oanh I have been enlightened with new horizons from knowledge from each session, which I have applied in this thesis iii TABLE OF CONTENT DECLARATION ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS TABLE OF CONTENT LIST OF EQUATIONS LIST OF FIGURES LIST OF TABLES LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ABSTRACT INTRODUCTION 1, Rationales for the research Objective and scope of the study Research question Methodology 3 Literature review Thesis structure CHAPTER Theoretical framework OF EVALUATION OF DECISIONMAKING POLICY ON PPP TRANSPORT PROJECT 1.1 Overview of Evaluation of Decision-making policy on PPP transport project 1.1.1 Key definitions and History of Evaluation of Decision-making policy on PPP transport project Process of Evaluation of Decision-making policy on PPP transport project 1 Stakeholders of Evaluation of Decision-making policy on PPP transport project 1.2 Criteria to Evaluate Decision-making policy on PPP transport project 16 1.2 Effectiveness criteri Efficiency criteria iv 1.3 Case studies of evaluating decision-making policy on PPP transport project in some countries 24 1.3.1 Evaluate policy on decision-making in Koudougou Bus Station in Burkina Faso 24 1.3.2 Evaluate policy on decision-making in Delhi-Gurgaon Toll Road Project in India 25 CHAPTER ANALYSIS OF DECISION-MAKING POLICY ON PPP 27 TRANSPORT PROJECT IN VIETNAM 2.1 Overview of Evaluation of Decision-making policy on PPP transport project in Vietnam 27 2.1.1 Key Definitions and History of Evaluation of Decision-making policy on PPP transport project in Vietnam 27 2.1.2 Process of Evaluation of Decision-making policy on PPP transport projects in Vietnam 31 2.1.3 Stakeholder of Evaluation of Decision-making policy on PPP transport project in Vietnam project in Vietnam 2.2.1 Effectiveness criteria 2.2.2 Efficiency criteria 2.3 Some case studies of Decision-making poli Vietnam 2.3.1 Evaluate policy on decision-making in Binh Loi PPP project 2.3.2 Evaluate policy on decision-making North-South expressway PPP project 52 2.3.3 Evaluate policy on decision-making Thai Nguyen - Cho Moi PPP project 52 2.4 Assessment of Decision-making policy on PPP transport project in Vietnam 54 24.1 Strengths of Decision-making policy on PPP transport project in Vietnam 54 2.4.2 Weaknesses of Decision-making policy on PPP transport project in Vietnam 57 CHAPTER RECOMMENDATIONS FOR DECISION-MAKING POLICY ON PPP TRANSPORT PROJECT IN VIETNAM transport project in Vietnam 3.2 Recommendations to Policymakers transport project 3.3.1 Recommendations to Decision-making Authority 3.3.2 Recommendations to Competent Authority 3.3.3 Recommendations to Project Assessment Board 3.3.4, Recommendations to Preparing Unit CONCLUSION LIST OF REFERENCE! LIST OF LEGAL DOCUMENTS Appendix an example of legal basis ofa PPP project Appendix an example ofa BOT project financial analysi: vi LIST OF EQUATIONS Equation Equation Equation Equation Equation Equation Equation Equation Equation Equation 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 NPV by Discounted Cash Flow method 22:-22222 NPV by Adjusted Present Value method .-.- -2 IRR by algebraic method :-22:2222222.12 re BCR by Traditional method +-2222222.2222.rerrer BCR by Present value method -2.+:222222 222tr Economie NPV as regulated by Vietnam law .-Economic IRR as regulated by Vietnam law BCR as regulated by Vietnam law +-2222tc re Return on Equity as regulated by Vietnam law Discount rate as regulated by Vietnam law -s 21 22 23 23 24 47 48 48 49 50 vii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1 Criteria to evaluate policy on decision-making PPP transport project 16 Figure 2.1 Process of PPP project in Vietnam -2+22.22 re 31 Figure 2.2 Process of decision-making PPP transport project in Vietnam 32 viii LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1 Current legal framework on PPP transport project decision-making in „` 37 Table 2.2 Bases for PPP transport project decision-making in Vietnam 39 Table 2.3 Benefits for users of North - South expressways compared to national ƠƠƯƠƯƠƯƠƯƠƯƠƯƠƯƠƯ'.: 46 Table 3.1 Advantages and disadvantages of DCF and APV method in NPV ` 68 Table 3.2 Advantages and disadvantages of Trial and Error or Iterative and Algebraic Approach method in IRR calculation 2-+::222-222::22.-zt 69 Table 3.3 Advantages and disadvantages of Traditional and Present Value method in BCR calculation 73 can lead to biased results and unreliable decision-making; Time lag: BCR analysis often assumes that project costs and benefits are incurred and realized at the same time, which can be unrealistic in practice There can be a time lag between when costs are incurred and when benefits are realized, which can affect the accuracy of the BCR; Externalities: BCR does not account for externalities or the knock-on effects of a project on society For example, a transport project may reduce congestion and travel times, but it may also have negative environmental impacts that are not considered in the BCR analysis; Intangible benefits: BCR analysis is limited to the quantifiable and monetizable benefits of a project It does not capture the non-monetized, intangible benefits of a project that may be important to stakeholders, such as improved quality of life or social cohesion; Comparability’ BCR analysis assumes that the costs and benefits of different projects are comparable However, this may not be the case, particularly when comparing projects with different objectives or impacts Therefore, it is recommended to the Board of Assessment to require: (i) comparison between methods to calculate BCR; and (ii) presentation of the shortcomings of the BCR result, as mentioned above 3.3.4, Recommendations to Preparing Unit The preparing unit plays a significant role in assessing the technical feasibility and of a project They are responsible for conducting in-depth studies and analyses to determine if the project is technically viable and achievable Therefore, preparing unit should evaluate the project's technical feasibility to ensure that the proposed solution is feasible and can be implemented successfilly This can include an assessment of the technical specifications, equipment, and infrastructure required for the project To ensure the technical feasibility of a project, here are some recommendations: (1) Conduct a comprehensive feasibility study: Start by conducting a thorough feasibility study to assess the technical requirements and challenges of the project 74 This study should include an analysis of the existing technology, infrastructure, and resources needed to successfully implement the project Identify any potential technical constraints or risks that could impact the project's viability (2) qualified industry potential Engage qualified technical experts: Seek the input and expertise of technical professionals who have experience in the specific field or related to your project They can provide valuable insights, identify technical hurdles, and offer suggestions to ensure feasibility (3) Set realistic and achievable goals: Clearly define the project's technical objectives and ensure they are realistic and attainable within the given constraints Avoid setting unrealistic expectations, which can result in technical challenges and failed outcomes (4) Conduct a prototype or proof of concept: Before fully committing to the project, develop a prototype or proof of concept to test the technical feasibility This allows you to evaluate and validate the project's technical aspects, identify any potential issues early on, and make necessary adjustments or improvements based on the feedback received (5) Collaborate with stakeholders: Involve relevant stakeholders, including technical experts, vendors, suppliers, and end-users, throughout the project development phase Their insights and feedback can help identify potential technical feasibility issues and provide valuable input to enhance the project's success (6) Continuously monitor and adapt: Regularly monitor the project's progress and performance, and be prepared to adapt and make necessary adjustments as challenges or new technologies emerge Embrace a flexible approach that allows for agility and responsiveness to changing technical requirements (7) Keep abreast of technological advancements: Stay up to date with the latest technological advancements, industry best practices, and emerging trends relevant to your project Incorporating innovative solutions and technologies can enhance the technical feasibility and overall success of the project 75 It should be noted that technical feasibility is just one aspect of project feasibility It should be analyzed in conjunction with other factors, such as economic, legal, operational, and scheduling feasibility, to ensure a comprehensive assessment of the project's viability and likelihood of success 76 CONCLUSION Overall, this dissertation has provided material to approach three objectives (as mentioned in the Introduction): - To introduce and analyze Generality of Evaluation of Decision-making policy on PPP transport project over the world - Applied the analysis in Chapter to review and analyze Decision-making policy on PPP transport project in Vietnam and identify its strengths and weaknesses - To provide recommendations for improving the Decision-making policy on PPP transport project in Vietnam to ensure the success of PPP projects and promote effectiveness and efficiency It is concluded that, the Hypothesis (The current policy on decision-making for PPP transport projects in Vietnam is not fully efficient in terms of resource utilization and cost-effectiveness) is suitable Although there have been studies BOT projects Meanwhile, there are BOO, BTL, BLT, mixed) The reason Vietnam has mainly implemented BOT and surveys, the thesis data is mainly about types of PPP projects (BOT, BOT, O&M, for this limitation is that in the past time, projects, there is no data on other types of contracts Thus, a limitation and also possible future research, is the study of policy on decision-making with other types of contracts of the PPP method In which, the type of O&M project contract is the most potential topic, so as to increase the mobilization of social resources in Operate and Maintain traffic projects have been built as: Project to build a number of expressway sections on the East North - 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p 233 The United Nations Development Program, Handbook on Planning, Monitoring and Evaluating for Development Results, 2009 Theodolou, S Z and C Kofinis, The art of the game: Understanding American public policy making, 2004 UK Treasury, Guidance on the Pre-Qualification Questionnaire and Selection stage for Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects, UK 2022 United Nations Development Program (UNDP), Handbook on monitoring and evaluating for results, 1997 83 61 62 63 Van Du, Nguyen, et al, Assessing Stakeholder Satisfaction in PPP Transport Projects in Developing Countries: Evidence from Vietnam, Built Environment Project and Asset Management, 12.2/2022, p 309 - p 324 Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Public-Private Partnership in Infrastructure Development - From Theory to Practice, Hanoi 2015 Ward, John, et al, The Planning and Appraisal of Mega Transport Infrastructure Projects Delivered by Public-Private Partnerships: The Case for the Use of Policy-Led Multi-Criteria Analysis, Organization, Technology & Management in Construction: An International Journal, 11.1/2019, p 1992 ~p.2008 World Bank Group, Public-Private Partnership (PPP) in Transport Sector in Vietnam, Washington 2017 84 LIST OF LEGAL DOCUMENTS, Law on Investment under the mode of public-private partnership dated June 18, 2020; Law on Road Traffic dated November 13, 2008; Law on Public Investment dated June 13, 2019; Law on Construction dated June 18, 2014 and the Law amending and supplementing a number of articles of the Law on Construction dated June 17, 2020; Law on Bidding dated November 26, 2013; Law on Enterprises dated June 17, 2020; Law on State Budget dated June 25, 2015; Law on Environmental Protection dated November 17, 2020; Decree No 35/2021/ND-CP dated March 29", 2021 of Government on elaboration of some Articles of the Law on PPP (Decree No 35) Decree No 28/2021/ND-CP dated March 26", 2021 of Government guiding on financial management mechanisms of PPP projects (Decree No 28) Circular No 09 of Ministry of Planning and Investment providing guidelines for selection of investors executing PPP projects and investment projects involving land use Circular No 09 dated June 22", 2022 of Ministry of Transport providing guidance on bid evaluation methods and criteria for selection of investors executing PPP projects and template of build-operate-transfer contract in transport sector (Circular No 09) Circular No 22 dated August 31°, 2022 of Ministry of Transport providing guidelines on some contents of pre-feasibility study reports and feasibility study reports of investment projects in the forms of public-private partnership, buildoperate-transfer contracts in transport sector (Circular No 22) And other legal documents./ 85 APPENDIX AN EXAMPLE OF LEGAL BASIS OF A PPP PROJECT Law on Public Investment dated June 13, 2019; Law on Road Traffic dated November 13, 2008; Law on Prices dated June 20, 2012; Law on Capital dated November 21, 2012; Law on Bidding dated November 26, 2013; Law on Land dated November 29, 2013; Law on State Budget dated June 25, 2015; Law on Construction dated June 18, 2014 and the Law amending and supplementing a number of articles of the Law on Construction dated June 17, 2020; Law on Enterprises dated June 17, 2020; Law on Investment under the mode of public-private partnership dated June 18, 2020; Law on Environmental Protection dated November 17, 2020; Resolution of the 13 National Party Congress; Conclusion No 11-KL-TW dated July 13, 2021 of the 13th Party Central Committee at the Third Conference on the national socio-economic development plan, medium-term public investment the year 2021-2025; Resolution No 16/2021/QH15 dated July 27, 2021 of the National Assembly on the 5-year socio-economic development plan 2021 - 2025; Resolution No 29/2021/QH15 dated July 28, 2021 of the National Assembly on the medium-term public investment plan for the 2021-2025 period; Resolution No 06-NQ/TW dated January 24, 2022 of the Central Committee on planning, construction, management and sustainable development of urban areas in Vietnam until 2030, with a vision to 2045; 86 Resolution No 15-NQ/TW dated May 5, 2022 of the Politburo on orientations and tasks to develop Hanoi Capital until 2030, with a vision to 2045; Decision No 1454/QD-TTg dated September 1, 2021 of the Prime Minister approving the road network planning for the period of 2021 - 2030, with a vision to 2050; Decision No 1769/QD-TTg dated October 19, 2021 of the Prime Minister approving the railway network planning for the period 2021 - 2030, with a vision to 2050; Other relevant documents W APPENDIX 2, AN EXAMPLE OF A BOT PROJECT FINANCIAL ANALYSIS tú ol fi : Vor} (ot Mot " ww | an M (io vey | alate (oe) est | cnn ib lun ¥0C fot) and (a yee ETI om Ụ NI bedi nl snl so EE Sei eit unl yan ssi II) Sun es Ls) OT TT EO foe ” ml | km noi i) | ” Aen | beet Wi) el asl sia sun] sn “Sasol T oss ETTIETTIETTIETT)ETTDI] cay aon] au ue it [TYIETTTIEDTTIRTU)RTTTETTT] (unt aut soa al wal TT A TT —=h———— al