The technical analysis the case of stock code drc da nang rubber joint stock company, viet nam,masters thesis

BERLIN SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND LAW Institute of Management Berlin (1MB) THE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: THE CASE OF STOCK CODE DRC - DA NANG RUBBER JOINT STOCK COMPANY, VIET NAM Name of Student THAO DUONG PHUONG Matr No: 582573 MASTER'S THESIS Submiited in partial fulfiment for the degree of "MASTER OF ARTS" Supervisor 1: Prof Dr Stachuletz Rainer Supervisor 2: PhD Tran Thi Xuan Anh Date: 30 Nov 2018 THE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: THE CASE OF STOCK CODE DRC - DA NANG RUBBER JOINT STOCK COMPANY, VIET NAM Thao Duong P/i uong Abstract This paperwork studies about the technical analysis of securities for a sample of a stock code named DRC, presented for Da Nang Rubber Joint Stock Company, which was listed on Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HSX) in Viet Nam in 2006, for the time from 2006 until now The paper identifies that some of the hypotheses presented by the optimal heding literature are possible to illustrate the technicians' experiences on investment in the stock market in Viet Nam, especially investing in stock DRC in recent years Moreover, the paper shows that the macroeconomic effect of technical analysis on investment's behaviour in Vietnam PREFACE In a globalization world, economic lessons and the modern business spread out and fulfill the gap of economic-financial matters of countries all over the global The developing countries are effectively taking advantages of achivements from other nations and improving the domestics business activities Vietnam is one of the fastest financial transformers in the Asia, and brings the effort to become one of Top Southeast Asia in economy, culture, and technology.Since the mid-1980s with opening policies, when the country embarked on a trasitional path to a market-oriented economic system, Vietnam adopted a lot of techniques to boost up finance' health In 1996, State Security Company of Viet Nam (S SC) was established and led to the growth of stock market in Vietnam Until now, the stock market of Vietnam had gained alot of positive results, and gradually attracted the interest from foreigners' investors To keep moving forward a economic system, stock market has applied a lot suitable legal corridor and modern techniques, and helped to eliminate negative factors in the domestic economy In particular, that stock market of Vietnam is growth well has promoted the playground of those who are interested in investment and financing Yet they are not sastified if there are no beneficial supporting tools to recommend and advise the investment The global open knowledge can fulfill all the chasm, and a lot of techniques are used nowadays in stock trading, and securitiy players has started to invest money by analyzing data wisely However, to make the decision when there is doubt of using which specific analysis method becomes a big question The introduction of technical analysis in stock market is mentioned in my thesis, especially using this in the case of a popular traded stock in Vietnam, then offers to investors a useful preference The aim of my thesis is to contribute to knowledge in this economic area by selecting technical market analysis, then provide recommendation for potential investors In the details, I propose to to employ main methods of analysis to support my own thesis conclusion Definition and characteristics of technical analysis Features of technical indicators and chart patterns Research of stock trading performance that using technical analysis Statistics, analytical review and synthesis Limitation and conclusion The thesis brings the main methodology with analysis techniques, descriptions, comparison, deduction and provision ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to show great appreciation for people helping me and contributing in writing this thesis American economist Fisher Black mentioned I would love most that "By its nature, research involves many false starts and blind alleys" I think it is true with my own paperwork However, thanks to inspiration from beloved family and devoted lecturers in my master's program, my subject was finally delighted on technical market analysis Specially, I take this opportunity to thank the one having big influence on me from FAMA 5- Vietnam, Prof Dr Stachuletz Rainer In addition, thank Professor for his supervision throughout the course of my master's degree and Mrs Tran Thi Xuan Anh for providing me invaluable advice on my subject The foundation of my paper would be vague without all of their support I also would like to thank all my friends in my master's course for their mutual support and spiritual encouragement The last, I am grateful to my parent's scarif' to give me the chance of pursuing academic path Without them, my paperwork could not become existence CONTENTS CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION 1.Overview Methodology CHAPTER II: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Theoretical Background 1.1 Definition 1.2 Chart Analysis Main Indicators 10 2.1 Moving Averages 10 2.2 Relative Strength Index (RSI) 13 2.3 Moving Average Convergence — Divergence (MACD) 14 CHAPTER III EMPIRICAL RESEARCH — STOCK CODE DRC 16 Introduction of Danang Rubber Joint Stock Company (DRC) 16 Empirical Research - DRC 21 2.1 Overview of the stock market 21 2.2 Empirical Research - DRC 21 CHAPTER IV: CONCLUSION 24 BIBLIOGRAPHY 25 LIST OF FIGURES Figure Model trend of International Business Machines (IBM) from Oct 1998 to Oct 1999 Figure Resistance and Support Level Figure Stock closing prices of Eastman Kodak Co from Nov to Dec 1999 — with Simple Moving Average 11 Figure Stock closing prices of Eastman Kodak Co from Nov to Dec 1999 — with Exponential Moving Average 12 Figure RSI Model — Overbought and Oversold Region 13 Figure MACD line 14 Figure 7: DRC trading from Jan to Dec 2017 22 Figure 8: DRC trading from Jan to Jun 2018 23 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Main Indexes of Da Nang Rubber Joint Stock Company 2018 17 Table 2: Income Statement of Da Nang Rubber Joint Stock Company — first months of 2018 18 Table 3: Business Plan of 2018 of Da Nang Rubber Joint Stock Company 20 Table 4: Demonstration about the Gain and Loss of Business Operation in Quarter 111/2018 21 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION Overview The stock market in Viet Nam has developed in recent years, especially in the latest years The operation of stock market is getting gradually dynamic and attracts more and more investors not only domestics ones but also foreigners This has attribute the vast volumes in trading and created a strong healthy playground for those who are interested in the finance's investment in Viet Nam Remarkably, the number of investors, employees using of technical analysis in the stock market activities is signigicantly escalated The technical analysis method as well as the fundamental analysis way are more and more popularized in security investment in the world for centuries Then both of them are applied in the daily stock trading in Vietnam as timely catching-up trend by Vietnamese investors in the desire to build up domestics finance as a remarkable point in area's economy and in the world Moreover, the technical analysis is preferred and approached to use broadly in recent decades, possibly due to the fact that using fundamental information to determine value of assets has become notoriously difficult However, the effective of its application in Vietnamese stock market is not yet fulifilled because of that the use of security analysis method is not consistent and coherent Investors are confused to adopt new methodology in specific cases, and the information in Vietnam is not transpatent enough to manipulate analysis tools in practice Furthermore, the flaw of existent literature is that most previous papers analyze the fundamental analysis over than the others, and experts bring bias in argument to the modern technical analysis in application in Vietnamese stock market Therefore, this paper would discuss primarily about technical analysis which is encourageed to broaden and apply much frequently as a effective investing method in Vietnam I also hope to mention about the strengths and weaknesses of it here From my point of view, it helps invesotrs, vendors, and speculators and managers have right consideration about techinical analysis in the Vietnamese stock market and make their own exact decisions As the result, the thesis is named "The Technical Analysis: The case of stock code DRC — Da Nang Joint Stock Company" By picking up a stock code DRC, which was listed in 2006 by Ho Chi Minh Trading Stock Center (HSX), I decide this stock have many characteristics of a Vietnamese State Capitalization Company, a Manufacturing as well as Importing-exporting Company and a rubber tire industry with the precursor of a heavy industrial organzation in Vietnam established in 1975 What is shown about DRC stock trading by technical market analysis? Finally, the research question is raised that "Is it possible to make profitable investment decision based on Technical Analysis?" was answered by the results of the thesis Retail potential investors want to increase benefits and create many strategies to analyze market with both pattern recognitions and statistical indicators Growing awareness of technical analysis on the financial market in the recent years has been motivating the demand of exploring more deeply its advantages and eliminating any disadvantages of technical market analysis tools By this way, investors or traders can optimize their profits Methodology In order to achieve the aim of the thesis, I used methodologies of statistical analysis, description, synthesis, comparison and probability To generate last recommendation, statistical probability analysis method is taken to explore opportunity of investment based only on teclmical market analysis Elements of methodologies are essential to identify the relationship between the literature of analysis and stock market practicing Financial markets, and stock market in particular, are illustrated with complex data input and interesting technical indicators A different method used in my thesis is "description" This one kind of method presents details of information and characteristics of all the subjects given in the thesis Significantly, description method is heavily used in first chapters, chapter on theory of technical analysis where it describes background of stock market and investors' behavior in using technical analysis Another method "synthesis" helps to link the constituent perspectives into the whole complex data output This method is used for the last part of the thesis where findings shown during the research are elaborated and synthesized 2.3 Moving Average Convergence — Divergence (MACD) Moving Average Convergence — Divergence tools illustrate the difference between fast and slow moving average of a financial instrument's prices Nevertheless, it is designed to identify significant trend changes and price foreseeing signals MACD is presented that there is signal line, mostly 9-period EMA line of the MACD line Besides, there is a histogram representing the visual differences of MACD line and signal line And MACD line has gap between the 12 and 26-period of EMA As the result, the crossovers of MACD line are the enlightened signals of buying and selling Moreover, this kind of indicator shows the change of momentum that helps to identify the trading opportunities around support and resistance levels Figure MACD line 12-fic EMA !Th'U! -nc EMA -.iiflhii IIIINI7 UMLlSr u -i1r EA kl.LC D I, M.Airi L MA(.D Li.i In the summary, tecimical indicators are mathematical calculations based on historical prices, trading volume, and others The primary characteristic of indicators is that they present processed market information to predict financial market direction It is clear that we can approach the indicators, overlay them on the price chart pattern to indicate trending of market 14 Confirmedly, technical Analysis Method is necessary to create the success of security investors Not a basic one, technical analysis is focused to predict the movement of prices by investigating market statistics in the past, then thanks to results, trending is foreseen Like weather forecasting, technical analysis does not result in exact number of prices as well as information about market in next trading sessions Though, thanks to this method, investors can be anticipate what likely happen with prices over the time 15 CHAPTER III EMPIRICAL RESEARCH — STOCK CODE DRC There are substantial quantities of published articles and literature on technical market analysis However, on academic level, there is still no consensus regarding benefits of using technical analysis in stock market of Vietnam Moreover, it is recorded that a variety of studies concluding security investment with technical analysis are not worked In the history, a lot of economists have controversial and negative opinions about technical analysis as a bias assumption and a forecasting tool On the other side, argument research papers and empirical evidence demonstrating that specific technical strategies success and make profitable Nowadays, most of potential investors use technical analysis only or as a supporting tool in their business So, in my thesis, I decide to choose a stock code which is interesting in Vietnamese stock market DRC is chosen because it has many special characteristics of a Vietnamese State Capitalization Company, a Manufacturing as well as Importing-exporting Company and a rubber tire industry with the precursor of a heavy industrial organzation in Vietnam established in 1975 Introduction of Danang Rubber Joint Stock Company (DRC) DRC (Da Nang Rubber Joint Stock Company) (HSX: DRC) is a tire manufacturer and rubber-processing company in Da Nang, Vietnam It manufactures, and distributes tires and other rubber-derived products for industrial and automotive use Besides, the company also merchandises machinery, imports and exports rubber products and supplies for rubber processing activitnies, as well performing installations for this equipment in the rubber industry Da Nang Rubber Joint Stock Company belongs to 16 Vietnam Chemical Group, its precursor is a carpentry workshop was taken over by the General Department of Chemicals of Vietnam and officially established in December, 1975 On December 25, 2006, the Ho Chi Minh City Securities Trading Center (HSX) announced the listing of Da Nang Rubber Joint Stock Company No 859 / TTGDHCM / NY The number of listed shares is 9,247,500 shares with the total value of listed shares: VND 92,475,000,000 (par value: VND10,000 / share) Listed date of entry into force: November 28, 2006 Official trading date: 29/12/2006 Until now, the number of listed ones is 118,792,605 shares that integrated charter capital of company in 2018 approximately 1.5 times of that in years ago, VND 830,73 8,490,000 The number of employment is 1,752 and the company has two more branches in Hanoi and in Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam Nevertheless, DRC also develops market share in more than 35 countries in the world, mainly in Asia, South America, Africa, and Europe Table 1: Main Indexes of Da Nang Rubber Joint Stock Company 2018 FINANCE Market Capitalization 2470.89 Billion Revenue (4 quarters) 3578.73 Billion Numbers of shares in the 118.79 Million Profits (4 quarters) 137.13 Billion Free stocks 50.89 Million Equity ( The latest quarter) 2894.27 Billion EPS 1,154 ROE (4 quarters) 8.99% PIE 18.02 Beta (120 weeks) 0.73 circulation Equipments and machines those are modern and improved by Company in recent years help business operation increasingly effective, help products more qualified, and create more new brands in order to meet various market demands Company's share in the market is developing and has reputation in many years Moreover, distribution system is solid and strong, spreads all 17 over the country The result is that there is augment in the volume of consumption in the fiercely competitive market On October, 2018, DRC posted Income Statement Quarter III 2018 with Net Sales of VND 890 Billion, increasing more than VND 10 Billion compared to the same period last year Capital cost fell tenderly due to lower raw material price which helped bring total profit to VND 109 Billion, up 11% In the operation, Company spared a lot of sales cost and business management cost; however, financial expenses rocketed from VND 17.4 Billion to 31 Billion as the consequence of exchange rate fluctuation According to report, DRC had a net profit of VND 31 Billion in the third quarter, redoubled up to 22% in the comparison of that in last year Table 2: Income Statement of Da Nang Rubber Joint Stock Company -9 first months of 2018 Period Lndtiu.: 2018 2018 2018 2017 30-Sep 30-Jun 31-Mar 31-Dec TotaiRevenue 890479.59 927609.37 733581.68 1027450.82 Revenue 890479.59 927609.37 733581.68 1027450.82 Cost of Revenue, Total 781696.94 795160.52 657339.73 912214.1 Gross Profit 108782.65 132448.85 76241.95 115236.71 Total Operating Expenses 849475.98 859411.38 707796.94 983029.83 SellinglGeneral/Admin Expenses, Total 39905.57 39586.06 34280.83 531 07.2 I Research & Development - Depreciation / Amortization 1852.32 1942.32 1710.21 2019.48 Interest Expense (Income) - Net Operating 19401.6 14780.96 9601 34 7978.67 Unusual Expense (Income) -1781.6 1821.6 - Other Operating Expenses, Total 8401.15 6119.93 4864.83 7710.37 Operating Income 41003.61 68197.99 25784.74 44420.99 Interest Income (Expense), Net Non-Operating 20.25 172.1 27.78 - Other Revenue, Total Gain (Loss) on Sale of Assets Other, Net -2148.55 18 -39.31 Net Income Before Taxes 38855.06 68246.02 25956.84 44381.67 Provision for Income Taxes 7904.47 13869.31 5224.86 8956.39 NetincomeAfterTaxes 30950.59 54376.7 20731.98 35425.28 Minority Interest - Equity In Affiliates - - - U.S GAAP Adjustment - - - Net Income Before Extraordinary Items 30950.59 54376.7 20731.98 35425.28 - - - 54376.7 20731.98 35425.28 - - 35425.28 Total Extraordinary Items Net Income 30950.59 Total Adjustments to Net Income Income Available to Common Excluding Extraordinary Items 30950.59 54376.7 20731.98 Dilution Adjustment - - - Diluted Net Income 30950.59 54376.7 20731.98 35425.28 Diluted Weighted Average Shares 118.79 118.89 118.79 ii 8.79 Diluted EPS Excluding Extraordinary Items 260.54 457.36 174.52 298.21 DPS - Common Stock Primary Issue - Diluted Normalized EPS 248.6 469.43 760 173.37 298.21 * In Millions of VND (except for per share items Accumulated for nine first months of 2018, Da Nang Rubber Joint Stock Company revenues went down 3% compared to that in last year, to VND 2,551.7 Billion Net income before taxes was VND 133 Billion and after taxes was VND 106 Billion As the plan of 2018, total revenue of 2018 is \TND 4,592 Billion, net income after taxes to VND 205.6 Billion Consequently, DRC was just completed 8.5% of planned revenue and 65% of planned net income before taxes 19 Table 3: Business Plan of 2018 of Da Nang Rubber Joint Stock Company Unit: Billion VND Value perform in Value performed in first months of Remained Plan in Targets Q3/2018 2018 Q4/2018 Production Value in Fact 953.2 2,756.40 1,749.50 Sales Revenue 935.6 2,690 1,902.60 Net income Before Taxes 38.8 133 72.6 In the Quarter IV, the number must be executed VND 1,902.6 Billion in Sales and \TND 72.6 Billion in Net income before Taxes However, it is informed that performing possibility of sales in the last quarter of year is VND 998 Billion and that of net income before taxes is \TND 22.6 Billion, by Administrative Council of DRC So, it is meant to be uncompleted the business plan of 2018 by Da Nang Rubber Joint Stock Company The reason to explain above forecasting is that the business plan passed in the DRC's General Meeting of Shareholders was remarked much high expectation on company's operation, risks in operation and market are getting out of expect On the other hand, according to DRC's demonstration documentary of company to State Security Commission of Vietnam (SSC) and HSX, Net income after Taxes of DRC in Quarter 111/2018 augmented to VND 5,646,154,868, equivalently up 22% compared with that of Quarter 111/20 17 The detail is following: 20 Table 4: Demonstration about the Gain and Loss of Business Operation in Quarter 1111 2018 Unit: VND No Effect on Net income Main Targets Increase Decrease Total Net income increased mainly thanks to decreasing raw materials compared with the same quarter in last year 10,611,417,165 Financial cost increased mainly due to the fluctuation of exchange rate Business Management 13,558,587,248 cost decreased leading to redouble profit 7,567,318,942 Other factors such as increasing revenue, other expenses, taxes relating to increase profit 1,026,006,009 19,204,742,116 Difference 13,558,587,248 5,646,154,868 Empirical Research - DRC 2.1 Overview of the stock market Recently, market is exciting, and green was shown in many groups of stocks In a recent few months, banking group continued to keep the position of leader in the market Besides, big capitalized group, such as SAB, GAS, VNM rocketed up leading to the increase of indexes Others also attracted buying flow to get high and ceiling position It was recommended that market showed the positive trending and investors could take more attention in the stock codes which were being bought a lot 2.2 Empirical Research - DRC • Significant technical index: (MarchI2O 18) - Trending now: Avoid long-term decreasing trend - Indicator MACD: increase, keep on the red line - Indicator RSI: increase, outside the over-buying zone 21 - Indicator MFI: strongly increase Identification: After closed today trading session, DRC increased and got away of decreasing trend for a long time and reached to line 29.7 Indicator MACD went up and up on the red line, showing the signal of continuing rise Indicator RSI augmented and still outside the region of overbuying Figure 7: DRC trading from Jan to Dec 2017 X fl D 11112Q017 Opui Ui Fl 242 La 23.5 (300124(1.3%) VII 179500 I 25.72, L3tl 21.98, 2640 .IA1 - 32.0 - 30.0 20.0 ck.i S.pl.mb.r 91$, ()RC-Volum.() • 70.500.00 MA(VoIw08015)= 773.803.31 l4A1(VolumeO.50) • 605230.63 Od0b Dicembor 291 1.514 1.201 I98C-RSI(15).5&50 70.0 - 300 NI S55) TheII6XTh0II0/U.r 2017 witnessed the downward trend of DRC prices The moving average went up tenderly from May and much more increased for a month from Jun to July, 2017 and got the peak of price VND 34,300 In the next period of five months, the movement gradually gauged to the bottom in November of price VND 19,700 The recommendation in the end of 2017 was provided to buy this stock because of increasing trend in the last month of the year The expected price was in the region price 23.5 to 24, and aimed shortterm up to 30 It is not deniable that DRC set recovering trend in the short time and kept the liquidity of DRC remaining, so the consequence is that price was maintained in the region price \TND 24,000 and continued to raise DRC 22 experienced to test MA2O with low liquidity, and it was positive signal to drag price of stock up Besides, resistance level of DRC was set 30 So experts advised to buy DRC in the region oF 23.5 to 24, and short-term aim at 30 to cut loss (at closing price) or breakout the increasing trend Figure 8: DRC trading from Jan to Jun 2018 127:2% 120C% r:iJJ_ 2Z8 882% 21)18 •-)1l212I) MAV-p're11))45255O Mr p1 iif fttil r:oc i-itiThTi P.I(i Turning into 2018, the price trending was fluctuated with gradual lift in first months of the year, and got the peak of \ND 31,400 in few days After that period, price movement went down sharply for two months, breakout the support level and reached the bottom at point of VND 18,850 It was seen clearly that stock DRC after tested successfully resistance level, and decreased the price down to the support level in short time Looking at the above figure, the recovery of price after reaching the bottom showed the escalator gradually and kept continue up Recently, the price of DRC was higher than resistance level with MA200 relating to price 22.8-23 The investors expected the price of DRC still getting increase in short-term trending Until now, short-term aim of DRC prices is VND 27,600 and it is recommended that investors should maintain securities instead of buying at low price because of risky restriction 23 CHAPTER IV CONCLUSION The primary aim of this thesis is to demonstrate that it is possible to be profitable on the financial market through the use of technical analysis Firstly, the theoretical definition and characteristics of technical analysis were mentioned as the essential source of literature for financial investments Also, the investors or potential speculators can have recognition in the investment with the new modern tool — technical analysis The former part of paper illustrates the main basis of knowledge helpfully for new corners And the later were the example of specific charts of price trending of DRC, a stock listed in HSX of Vietnamese Stock Market It is partially useful to provide the practice of technical analysis There were strong graphical representations of the chart patterns and indicators, used in the case of perceiving stock price movements by technical analysis My paper still retains a few limitations One of them is mentioned that there are not enough sources to demonstrate the rising number of people using technical analysis It is also my expectation to accomplish my academic literature about the usage of technical analysis in stock market in Vietnam, which is still not yet worked fluently and frequently Moreover, investors still not completely trust in using the technical analysis as an only tool in their trading practice, and just consider it as supporting and useful method to assume the stock market movement In my conclusion, it is summarized that using technical analysis a the only tool of investment analysis can create consistent profits On the other hand, die to a limitation of the research, my study can be improved in the future 24 BIBLIOGRAPHY • Bailey, R.E The Economics of Financial Markets: Cambridge University Press, 2005 • Bartels, Ann Mary and JR Fred Miessner, "Concepts in Technical Analysis": A Handbook of the Basics (2007) • Fama, E.F (1970) Efficient capital markets: a review oF theory and empirical work, Journal of Finance 205 • Murphy, John J Technical Analysis of the financial markets: A Comprehensive Guide To Trading Methods And Application.1St edition New York: NYIF, 1999 • Reilly, Frank K and Brown Keith C: Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management, 101h edition, 2012 Online sources: • https ://wikiflnancepedia com/ • https://stockcharts coin/school/doku.php? id=chartschool:overview technical_analysis • https ://www investing com/equities/danang-rubber-jsc-incomestatement • https://www ssc.gov 25 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