Tape Reading And Day Trading_4 pptx

$20.70 is a good idea, because this level doesn’t show good support. It cannot serve as a reliable indication of weakness if this level is broken. Essentially, it all comes to the dilemma of, “Do I let the stock hit the trail- ing stop and give up a significant portion of the current paper profit? Or do I take the profit now and kill the chance for a bigger move?” That’s where we use a confidence level, placing it at $20.75. If this level is broken on the downside, we change our original plan. While our trailing stop is still in place, our exit strategy is now to sell our shares on the first worthy bounce. If the confidence level is broken, we don’t expect the stock to go to new highs anymore, and any bounce between the price range $20.90–$21 is to be used to exit our remaining shares. 122 PART TWO Trading System CHAPTER 12 Trading Setups In this chapter, we discuss setups that we apply in our everyday trading. They will look familiar to an experienced trader although there is a cer- tain spin on classic setups. For instance, the well-known cup-and-handle formation is tweaked somewhat for intraday trading. Also, such a com- monly known setup as the ascending (descending) triangle has a certain twist that we describe. Most of our setups with the exception of capitulation and euphoria are trend-continuation formations. Capitulation and euphoria are the only trend-reversal setups in our arsenal. But, as you know from the previous discussion, there are many ways to trade the same setup. If a trade fails as a trend continuation, it could be faded for a trend reversal. This approach is in keeping with what we discuss about the role of setups. Although they do not predict the direction itself, they show the signs of direction, and if the signs tell us that upward movement has failed, then a short could be justified. Breaking of the stop level indicates failure. Breaking of the stop level before the setup is triggered invalidates the setup. This way we can define a stop level as a level for fading the setup. This is also known as trading of pattern failure and can be one’s trading style. Also, as you know from early chapters, every setup can be played with a different degree of aggressiveness. So, as you see the description of the setup with a recommendation to buy on the breakout (regular entry), you can apply to this all the possibilities we discuss earlier: buy- ing before confirmation or buying after the breakout and test of new support. 123 Copyright © 2004 by GST Captial Group, LLC. Click here for terms of use. JUMP-BASE–EXPLOSION (JBE) SETUP The jump-base–explosion setup can be described as consolidation near the high after initial upward movement. The idea of this setup is that an initial upward movement (the J phase) shows the direction of major inter- est. Then a stock meets resistance and consolidates under this level (the B phase). If the stock is strong enough to stay close to the resistance level without sharp retracement, it means that the path of least resistance is still upward and that the stock is likely to continue in the same direction as soon as it digests the distribution. We prefer the range of the consolida- tion to be narrow, usually not more than 25 cents. The first stage of the setup (Jump) should be not less than 1.5 times, but preferably 2 times, the size of the range (Base). With a range of 25 cents we get ideally 50 cents or more of the initial movement. This setup has several variations. They differ by the formation within the consolidation range. 1. Flatline at the High. Entry should be taken as the flatline makes a new high. The stop is placed under the nearest support, or, if the initial run-up has no pullbacks to indicate where support is, the stop is defined by risk tolerance. (See Figure 12.1.) 2. Consolidation after a Shallow Pullback. Volume should decrease on the consolidation phase. The buy signal is a break of the upper limit of the range (U). The stop is placed under the lower limit of the range (L). (See Figure 12.2.) 3. Narrow Range Near the High. Volume should dry up on pullbacks and increase on upward pushes. Buy and stop triggers are similar to setup 2. (See Figure 12.3.) 4. Ascending Triangle. The ascending triangle is similar to setups 2 and 3, with a somewhat stronger indication of successful breakout. This setup is sim- ilar to the classic ascending triangle, with the only distinction being that we want this formation to occur within the consolidation range. (See Figure 12.4.) DROP-BASE–IMPLOSION (DBI) SETUP The drop-base–implosion setup mirrors the JBE on the downside for a short play. Everything that was valid for the JBE setup is valid for the DBI as well. It has the same formations and the same rules for entry and stop placement. An ascend- ing triangle is going to reverse to a descending one, of course. (See Figure 12.5.) 124 PART TWO Trading System 125 FIGURE 12.1 Flatline at the high. 126 FIGURE 12.2 Consolidation after a shallow pullback. 127 FIGURE 12.3 Narrow range near the high. 128 FIGURE 12.4 Ascending triangle. 129 FIGURE 12.5 Drop-base–implosion setup. OPEN-HIGH– AND OPEN-LOW–BREAK SETUPS Open-high– and open-low–break setups are breaks of the range that are played similarly to JBE and DBI setups. The only difference is that these are setups for the beginning of the trading day, so they usually don’t have initial movement. The idea is to define the most likely direction of the price movement by the direction of the break of the opening range. For these setups we want the stock to move within the range, not more than 25 cents. These are setups for the first 15–20 minutes of the trading day. If the stock breaks the high of the range, we go long with the stop at the low of the range. If the stock breaks the low of the range, we go short with a stop at the high of the range. Since the opening is often quite volatile, this setup is frequently used for scalps unless the market shows a strong trend. Scalpers look for a 1:1 or 2:1 ratio of reward to risk. Holders scale out into a 2:1 reward/risk ratio and look for a trend. (See Figures 12.6 and 12.7.) CUP-AND-HANDLE SETUP The cup and handle is also a breakout setup and is very common for longer time frames. It works best on a day’s high, although it can be applied in the middle of the daily range as well. In Figure 12.8, points 1 and 3 are the cup edges at the day’s high. Point 2 is the cup bottom. The volume should dry up close to point 2 and pick up close to points 1 and 3. The cup should continue for a minimum of 30 minutes. But more than 30 minutes is desirable. In our experience, the optimal time for a cup forming is 1 hour or more. Point 4 is the bottom of the handle, and volume should dry up here. The handle should not have retracement deeper than 50 percent of cup depth. The volume should pick up at point 5. The handle should continue no longer than 30 percent of the time of cup formation, 25 percent is desir- able. The stop is placed below the handle bottom. The entry point can be taken aggressively or conservatively as described earlier. CAPITULATION Capitulation is a reversal setup. It’s that fast, sharp decline with vertical movement and volume-pace pickup that are necessary components because they suggest panic. Capitulation is one of the riskiest setups. It requires fast reactions and well-developed scalping skills because it sometimes provides just a 130 PART TWO Trading System 131 FIGURE 12.6 Open-high–break setup. [...]... add tape reading to your favorite indicators in order to deepen your understanding In the description of the trades, you will see many references to the psychological issues discussed in Part One Also, there are some repetitions in applying different tape- reading principles The authors did this deliberately because we want this part to be a way of “putting it all together” for both the technical and. .. shorting those that were weak before and didn’t break down because of the overall market strength As soon as the market weakens, this support disappears and the breakdown comes A similar approach can be used for finding candidates for a long play during a downtrending market, where you would buy the breakout on market reversal from the lows Expanding Range The expanding range is the worst market we’ve... of trading candidates and timing of entries and exits more fine-tuned, although somewhat more cumbersome Some of the most popular are the Semiconductor index (SOX) and the Biotechnology index (BTK) This page intentionally left blank PART THREE Practical Examples I n Part Three, we provide a number of practical examples, which are trades taken from the actual experiences of both authors and dissected... frames in which we trade, now and then we run into a ranging market You need recipes for this market condition TRADING RANGES There are three types of ranges we would like to discuss Those are regular, narrow, and expanding Each requires a different approach and presents a different challenge We have to add that as for trend traders, a ranging market is very tough for us, and we tend to decrease our... time of consolidation, since it is different for active and dull markets A careful observer can develop an intuitive feeling of “too short” and “too long.” When a stock makes several consecutive consolidations and breakouts, each next step of the ladder should be shorter than the previous one Ideally the length of each next step is between 50 percent and 75 percent of the length of the previous step If... According to tape- reading principles, slow movement with steady volume indicates a stage where you continue to hold your position Vertical spikes with sharp volume increases indicate an area and time interval to exit, either fully or partially Be willing to exit in full in a choppy market by taking the scalp Ride your position in a trending market, protecting the profit by partialling out and trailing... being made in technology, the core of the market remains the same, and the principles based on human reactions remain intact Different time frames are used in the charts, from 1 minute and higher, to show that traders within any time frame can apply the principles You will see that many of the trades were based not only on pure tape reading but also in combination with simple technical analysis We do... for profit, and the market drops back effectively, stopping the traders out This vicious cycle repeats at levels C, E, and D This kind of action is very hard to recognize in time In theory, you can reverse your position as the market bounces and breaks your stop level In reality, this is much easier said than done You can’t recognize this kind of action on a first or second failed break, and you don’t... always the last to know” or “Buy the rumor, sell the news” usually leads to distribution at some higher level on the day any public attention is drawn to the stock Therefore, for PRSF on this day, I was looking for a good, defined range and to have a short setup with expectations that this day would have a reasonable distribution at high levels There were morning impressions of the stock showing the strong... wouldn’t hold This is usually how an amateur thinks and often gets killed because of it I wanted to see a reasonable range defined and to trade from the continuation of either direction, with expectations that I would see the selloff By defining the ranges, instead of just gambling on some arbitrary figure, I can bring structure to the trade and review my entries and exits, using reality, not thoughts of “I . ratio and look for a trend. (See Figures 12.6 and 12.7.) CUP -AND- HANDLE SETUP The cup and handle is also a breakout setup and is very common for longer time frames. It works best on a day s high,. more. Point 4 is the bottom of the handle, and volume should dry up here. The handle should not have retracement deeper than 50 percent of cup depth. The volume should pick up at point 5. The handle. profit by par- tialling out and trailing the stop. 136 PART TWO Trading System CHAPTER 13 Trading Market Ranges and Miscellaneous Points In this chapter we review some points and cases that “surround”