Climate Change and Variability Part 9 potx

Climate Change and Variability268 (like NO x and VOC), surface emissions, and meteorology leads to strong nonlinearities for the atmospheric ozone chemistry. The interaction between ozone precursor’s emissions and ozone formation and depletion may be deeply impacted under future climatic scenarios. The knowledge of these relationships constitutes an important tool to correctly evaluate the role of forest fires on air quality under a changing climate. The projected impacts of forest fire emissions on O 3 and PM10 levels in the atmosphere raise the concern regarding the application of prescribed burning as a management tool. It is recognized that forest fires release high amounts of pollutants to the atmosphere that, in the short term, may lead to acute air pollution episodes with important human health injuries. An adequate prescribed burning planning should also consider the potential impacts of forest fire emissions on the air quality of a region. The obligation for the fulfilment of the European and national air quality standards is an important issue to be taken into account during these initiatives. The achieved results point to dramatic consequences of climate change on future forest fire activity and on air quality over Portugal. Future developments should consider other variables that could better represent the relationship between climate change, forestry dynamics, land-use change and future human activities. The use of dynamic vegetation models and/or landscape models could better represent the interaction between weather, vegetation changes, forest fires and human activities. The application of today’s developed statistical models implies that the relationships between forest fires and weather would remain the same under future climatic scenario and this may not correspond to the truth. A dynamic analysis of these interactions could lead to a better representation of the weather, fire and climate relationships. The human influence on forest fire activity is another variable that should be addressed. Due to lack of information it was not possible to effectively assess the influence of human activities and human behaviour on forest fire numbers. This variable may change dramatically in future and thus influencing the forest fire statistics and their related impacts. The application of more than one climatic scenario gives the opportunity to better characterize the range of possible changes that can be detected in future. An ensemble of the several possible scenarios for future climate may give important information regarding uncertainty analysis and promote a better characterization of the future forest fire activity and air quality over Portugal. The use of an ensemble approach will be particularly important to provide uncertainty information and bracket the response. This would represent an important added value to the already projected changes. The analysis of the impacts of climate change and designed pollutant emissions reduction policies would constitute an important step forward to effectively assess the impact of the implemented measures on the air quality of the next 20 to 30 years. This work represents an important attempt to relate climate change, forest fires and air quality over Portugal. The achieved results and main outcomes constitute an adequate scientific tool to support the implementation of measures and plans in the forest fire management and in the air quality fields. 7. References Amiro, B.D.; Todd, J.B., Wotton; B.M., Logan, K.A.; Flannigan, M.D.; Stocks, B.J.; Mason, J.A.; Martell, D.L. & Hirsch, K.G. (2001a). Direct carbon emissions from Canadian forest fires, 1959 to 1999. Canadian Journal of Forestry Research 31, 512-525. Amiro, B.D.; Stocks, B.J.; Alexander, M.E.; Flannigan, M.D. & Wotton, B.M. (2001b). Fire, climate change, carbon and fuel management in the Canadian boreal forest. International Journal of Wildland Fire 10, 405–413. APIF – Agência para a Prevenção de Incêndios Florestais (Agency for the Forests Fires Prevention) (2005). Proposta Técnica de Plano Nacional de Defesa da Floresta contra Incêndios – Plano de Acção. Vol. II, (Lisboa, Portugal). Aquilina, N.; Dudek, A.V.; Carvalho, A.; Borrego, C. & Nordeng, T.E. (2005). MM5 high resolution simulations over Lisbon. Geophysical Research Abstracts. Vol. 7, 08685, SRef- ID: 1607-7962/gra/EGU05-A-08685. European Geosciences Union 2005. Bessagnet, B.; Hodzic, A.; Vautard, R.; Beekmann, M.; Cheinet, S.; Honore; C.; Liousse, C. & Rouil, L. (2004). Aerosol modeling with CHIMERE— Preliminary evaluation at the continental scale. Atmospheric Environment 38, 2803– 2817. Boo, K.; Kwon, W.; Oh, J. & Baek, H. (2004). Response of global warming on regional climate change over Korea: An experiment with the MM5 model. Geophysical Research Letters 31, L21206, doi: 10.1029/2004GL021171 Borrego, C.; Miranda, A.I.; Carvalho, A.C. & Fernandez, C. (2000). Climate change impact on the air quality: the Portuguese case. Global Nest – the International Journal 2(2), 199-208. Borrego, C.; Valente, J.; Carvalho, A.; Sá, E.; Lopes, M. & Miranda, A.I. (2010). Contribution of residential wood combustion to the PM10 levels in the atmosphere. Atmospheric Environment 44, 642-651, DOI:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.11.020 Brown, T.J.; Hall, B.L. & Westerling, A.L. (2004). The impacts of twenty-first century climate change on wildland fire danger in the western United States: an application perspective. Climatic Change 62, 365-388. Carvalho, A. (2008). Forest fires and air quality under a climate change scenario. PhD Thesis. Department of Environment and Planning. University of Aveiro. Aveiro. Carvalho, A.; Flannigan, M.; Logan, K.; Gowman, L.; Miranda, A.I. & Borrego C. (2010a). The impact of spatial resolution on area burned and fire occurrence projections in Portugal under climate change. Climatic Change 98, 177–197 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-009-9667-2 Carvalho, A.; Flannigan, M.; Logan, K.; Miranda, A.I. & Borrego, C., 2008: Fire activity in Portugal and its relationship to weather and the Canadian Fire Weather Index System. International Journal of Wildland Fire 17, 328-338. Carvalho, A., Monteiro, A., Solman, S., Miranda, A.I., Borrego, C., 2010b. Climate-driven changes in air quality over Europe by the end of the 21st century, with special reference to Portugal. Environment Science & Policy, DOI: 10.1016/ j.envsci.2010.05.001. Carvalho, A.C.; Carvalho, A.; Gelpi, I.; Barreiro, M.; Borrego, C.; Miranda, A.I. & Perez- Munuzuri, V. (2006). Influence of topography and land use on pollutants dispersion in the Atlantic coast of Iberian Peninsula. Atmospheric Environment 40 (21), 3969-3982. Christensen, J.H. & Christensen, O.B. (2007). A summary of the PRUDENCE model projections of changes in European climate by the end of this century. Climatic Change, doi: 10.1007/s10584-006-9210-7. Christensen, J.H.; Christensen, O.B.; Lopez, P.; van Meijgaard, E. & Botzet, M. (1996). The HIRHAM4 Regional Atmospheric Climate Model. Scientific Report 96-4, DMI, Copenhagen. Crutzen, P.; Heidt, L.; Krasnec, J.; Pollock, W. & Seiler, W. (1979). Biomass burning as a source of atmospheric gases CO, H2, N2O, NO, CH3Cl and COS. Nature 282(5736), 253-256. Climate change, forest res and air quality in Portugal in the 21 st century 269 (like NO x and VOC), surface emissions, and meteorology leads to strong nonlinearities for the atmospheric ozone chemistry. The interaction between ozone precursor’s emissions and ozone formation and depletion may be deeply impacted under future climatic scenarios. The knowledge of these relationships constitutes an important tool to correctly evaluate the role of forest fires on air quality under a changing climate. The projected impacts of forest fire emissions on O 3 and PM10 levels in the atmosphere raise the concern regarding the application of prescribed burning as a management tool. It is recognized that forest fires release high amounts of pollutants to the atmosphere that, in the short term, may lead to acute air pollution episodes with important human health injuries. An adequate prescribed burning planning should also consider the potential impacts of forest fire emissions on the air quality of a region. The obligation for the fulfilment of the European and national air quality standards is an important issue to be taken into account during these initiatives. The achieved results point to dramatic consequences of climate change on future forest fire activity and on air quality over Portugal. Future developments should consider other variables that could better represent the relationship between climate change, forestry dynamics, land-use change and future human activities. The use of dynamic vegetation models and/or landscape models could better represent the interaction between weather, vegetation changes, forest fires and human activities. The application of today’s developed statistical models implies that the relationships between forest fires and weather would remain the same under future climatic scenario and this may not correspond to the truth. A dynamic analysis of these interactions could lead to a better representation of the weather, fire and climate relationships. The human influence on forest fire activity is another variable that should be addressed. Due to lack of information it was not possible to effectively assess the influence of human activities and human behaviour on forest fire numbers. This variable may change dramatically in future and thus influencing the forest fire statistics and their related impacts. The application of more than one climatic scenario gives the opportunity to better characterize the range of possible changes that can be detected in future. An ensemble of the several possible scenarios for future climate may give important information regarding uncertainty analysis and promote a better characterization of the future forest fire activity and air quality over Portugal. The use of an ensemble approach will be particularly important to provide uncertainty information and bracket the response. This would represent an important added value to the already projected changes. The analysis of the impacts of climate change and designed pollutant emissions reduction policies would constitute an important step forward to effectively assess the impact of the implemented measures on the air quality of the next 20 to 30 years. This work represents an important attempt to relate climate change, forest fires and air quality over Portugal. The achieved results and main outcomes constitute an adequate scientific tool to support the implementation of measures and plans in the forest fire management and in the air quality fields. 7. References Amiro, B.D.; Todd, J.B., Wotton; B.M., Logan, K.A.; Flannigan, M.D.; Stocks, B.J.; Mason, J.A.; Martell, D.L. & Hirsch, K.G. (2001a). Direct carbon emissions from Canadian forest fires, 1959 to 1999. Canadian Journal of Forestry Research 31, 512-525. Amiro, B.D.; Stocks, B.J.; Alexander, M.E.; Flannigan, M.D. & Wotton, B.M. (2001b). Fire, climate change, carbon and fuel management in the Canadian boreal forest. International Journal of Wildland Fire 10, 405–413. APIF – Agência para a Prevenção de Incêndios Florestais (Agency for the Forests Fires Prevention) (2005). Proposta Técnica de Plano Nacional de Defesa da Floresta contra Incêndios – Plano de Acção. Vol. II, (Lisboa, Portugal). Aquilina, N.; Dudek, A.V.; Carvalho, A.; Borrego, C. & Nordeng, T.E. (2005). MM5 high resolution simulations over Lisbon. Geophysical Research Abstracts. Vol. 7, 08685, SRef- ID: 1607-7962/gra/EGU05-A-08685. European Geosciences Union 2005. Bessagnet, B.; Hodzic, A.; Vautard, R.; Beekmann, M.; Cheinet, S.; Honore; C.; Liousse, C. & Rouil, L. (2004). Aerosol modeling with CHIMERE— Preliminary evaluation at the continental scale. Atmospheric Environment 38, 2803– 2817. Boo, K.; Kwon, W.; Oh, J. & Baek, H. (2004). Response of global warming on regional climate change over Korea: An experiment with the MM5 model. Geophysical Research Letters 31, L21206, doi: 10.1029/2004GL021171 Borrego, C.; Miranda, A.I.; Carvalho, A.C. & Fernandez, C. (2000). Climate change impact on the air quality: the Portuguese case. Global Nest – the International Journal 2(2), 199-208. Borrego, C.; Valente, J.; Carvalho, A.; Sá, E.; Lopes, M. & Miranda, A.I. (2010). Contribution of residential wood combustion to the PM10 levels in the atmosphere. Atmospheric Environment 44, 642-651, DOI:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.11.020 Brown, T.J.; Hall, B.L. & Westerling, A.L. (2004). The impacts of twenty-first century climate change on wildland fire danger in the western United States: an application perspective. Climatic Change 62, 365-388. Carvalho, A. (2008). Forest fires and air quality under a climate change scenario. PhD Thesis. Department of Environment and Planning. University of Aveiro. Aveiro. Carvalho, A.; Flannigan, M.; Logan, K.; Gowman, L.; Miranda, A.I. & Borrego C. (2010a). The impact of spatial resolution on area burned and fire occurrence projections in Portugal under climate change. Climatic Change 98, 177–197 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-009-9667-2 Carvalho, A.; Flannigan, M.; Logan, K.; Miranda, A.I. & Borrego, C., 2008: Fire activity in Portugal and its relationship to weather and the Canadian Fire Weather Index System. International Journal of Wildland Fire 17, 328-338. Carvalho, A., Monteiro, A., Solman, S., Miranda, A.I., Borrego, C., 2010b. Climate-driven changes in air quality over Europe by the end of the 21st century, with special reference to Portugal. Environment Science & Policy, DOI: 10.1016/ j.envsci.2010.05.001. Carvalho, A.C.; Carvalho, A.; Gelpi, I.; Barreiro, M.; Borrego, C.; Miranda, A.I. & Perez- Munuzuri, V. (2006). Influence of topography and land use on pollutants dispersion in the Atlantic coast of Iberian Peninsula. Atmospheric Environment 40 (21), 3969-3982. Christensen, J.H. & Christensen, O.B. (2007). A summary of the PRUDENCE model projections of changes in European climate by the end of this century. Climatic Change, doi: 10.1007/s10584-006-9210-7. Christensen, J.H.; Christensen, O.B.; Lopez, P.; van Meijgaard, E. & Botzet, M. (1996). The HIRHAM4 Regional Atmospheric Climate Model. Scientific Report 96-4, DMI, Copenhagen. Crutzen, P.; Heidt, L.; Krasnec, J.; Pollock, W. & Seiler, W. (1979). Biomass burning as a source of atmospheric gases CO, H2, N2O, NO, CH3Cl and COS. Nature 282(5736), 253-256. Climate Change and Variability270 Dentener, F.; Stevenson, D.; Ellingsen, K.; van Noije, T.; Schultz, M.; Amann, M.; Atherton, C.; Bell, N.; Bergmann, D.; Bey, I.; Bouwman, L.; Butler, T.; Cofala, J.; Collins, B.; Drevet, J.; Doherty, R.; Eickhout, B.; Eskes, H.; Fiore, A.; Gauss, M.; Hauglustaine, D.; Horowitz, L.; Isaksen, I.; Josse, B.; Lawrence, M.; Krol, M.; Lamarque, J. F.; Montanaro, V.; Mϋller, J. F.; Peuch, V. H.; Pitari, G.; Pyle, J.; Rast, S.; Rodriguez, J.; Sanderson, M.; Savage, N.; Shindell, D.; Strahan, S.; Szopa, S.; Sudo, K.; Wild, O. & Zeng, G. (2006). The Global Atmospheric Environment for the Next Generation. Environment Science and Technology 40, 3586-3594. DGRF – Direcção Geral dos Recursos Florestais (Forestry Resources General Directorate), 2006: Inventário Florestal Nacional de 1995-1998 (3ª Revisão). Divisão de Planeamento e Estatística, Direcção Geral dos Recursos Florestais. (Lisboa, Portugal) EC - European Commission (2003). Forest Fires in Europe: 2002 fire campaign. Directorate- General Joint Research Centre, Directorate-General Environment, S.P.I.03.83 EN. (Ispra, Italy) EC - European Commission (2005). Forest Fires in Europe 2004. Directorate-General Joint Research Centre, Directorate-General Environment, S.P.I.05.147 EN. (Ispra, Italy) Fernández, J.; Montávez, J.P; Sáenz, J.; González-Rouco, J.F. & Zorita, E. (2007). Sensitivity of the MM5 mesoscale model to physical parameterizations for regional climate studies: Annual cycle. Journal of Geophysical Research 112, D04101, doi:10.1029/2005JD006649. Ferreira, J.; Salmim, L.; Monteiro, A.; Miranda, A. I. & Borrego, C. (2004). Avaliação de episódios de ozono em Portugal através da modelação fotoquímica. In: Actas da 8ª Conferência Nacional de Ambiente, 27-29 Outubro, Lisboa, Portugal, 383-384. (Proceedings in CD Rom). Flannigan, M.D.; Logan, K.A.; Amiro, B.D.; Skinner, W.R. & Stocks, B.J. (2005). Future area burned in Canada. Climatic Change 72, 1-16. Flannigan, M.D.; Krawchuk, M.A.; de Groot, W.J.; Wotton, B.M. & Gowman, L.M. (2009). Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18, 483–507. GENEMIS – Generation of European Emission Data for Episodes Project (1994). EUROTRAC Annual Report, 1993, Part 5. EUROTRAC International Scientific Secretariat, Garmisch- Partenkirchen. Ginoux, P.; Chin, M.; Tegen, I.; Prospero, J.M.; Holben, B.; Dubovik, O. & Lin, S.J. (2001). Sources and distributions of dust aerosols simulated with the GOCART model. Journal of Geophysical Research 106, 20255 - 20273. Grell, G.A.; Dudhia, J. & Stauffer, D.R. (1994). A description of the fifth-generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5), Tech. Rep. NCAR/TN-398+STR, Natl. Cent. for Atmos. Res., Boulder, Colorado. Hansen, M.C.; DeFries, R.S.; Townsend, J.R. & Sohlberg, R. (2000). Global land cover classification at 1 km spatial resolution using a classification tree approach. International Journal of Remote Sensing 21(6,7), 1331-1364. Hauglustaine, D.A.; Hourdin, F.; Jourdain, L.; Filiberti, M A.; Walters, S.; Lamarque, J F. & Holland, E.A. (2004). Interactive chemistry in the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique general circulation model: description and background tropospheric chemistry evaluation. Journal of Geophysical Research 109, D04314, doi:10.1029/2003JD003957. Hodzic, A.; Vautard, R.; Bessagnet, B.; Lattuati, M. & Moreto, F. (2005). Long-term urban aerosol simulation versus routine particulate matter. Atmospheric Environment 39, 5851-5864. Hogrefe, C.; Leung, L.R.; Mickley, L.J.; Hunt, S.W. & Winner, D.A. (2005). Considering climate change in U.S. air quality management. Environmental Manager, 19-23. Hoinka, K.; Carvalho, A. & Miranda, A.I. (2009). Regional-scale weather patterns and wildland fires in Central Portugal. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18, 36–49 DOI: 10.1071/WF07045 INE – Instituto Nacional de Estatística (2003). XIV Recenseamento Geral da População, resultados definitivos. INE, Estimativas Provisórias de População Residente para 31.12.2002, aferidas dos resultados definitivos dos Censos 2001, ajustados com as taxas de cobertura. Instituto Geográfico Português (IGP), Carta Adminisrativa Oficial de Portugal. (Lisboa, Portugal) IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor & H.L. Miller (Eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 996 pp. Jones, R.G.; Murphy, J.M.; Hassel, D.C. & Woodage, M.J. (2005). A high resolution atmospheric GCM for the generation of regional climate scenarios. Hadley Center Technical Note 63, Met Office, Exeter, UK. Jones, R.G.; Murphy, J.M.; Hassel, D.C. & Woodage, M.J. (2005). A high resolution atmospheric GCM for the generation of regional climate scenarios. Hadley Center Technical Note 63, Met Office, Exeter, UK. Lattuati, M. (1997). Contribution à l’étude du bilan de l’ozone troposphérique à l’interface de l’Europe et de l’Atlantique Nord: modélisation lagrangienne et mesures en altitude. Thèse de sciences, Université Paris 6, France. Miller, M. (2007). The San Diego Declaration on Climate Change and Fire Management. 4th International Wildland Fire Conference, 13-17 May, Seville, Spain. (Proceedings in CD Rom) Miranda, A.I.; Borrego, C.; Santos, P.; Sousa, M. & Valente, J. (2004). Database of Forest Fire Emission Factors. Departamento de Ambiente e Ordenamento, Universidade de Aveiro: 2004, AMB-QA-08/2004. Deliverable D251 of SPREAD Project [EVG1-CT-2001- 00043]. Miranda, A.I.; Ferreira, J.; Valente, J.; Santos; P.; Amorim, J.H. & Borrego, C. (2005a). Smoke measurements during Gestosa 2002 experimental field fires. International Journal of Wildland Fire 14, 107–116. Miranda, A.I.; Borrego, C.; Sousa, M.; Valente, J.; Barbosa, P. & Carvalho, A. (2005b). Model of Forest Fire Emissions to the Atmosphere. Deliverable D252 of SPREAD Project (EVG1- CT-2001-00043). Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro AMB- QA-07/2005, Aveiro, Portugal, 48 pp. Monteiro, A.; Miranda, A.I.; Borrego, C.; Vautard, R., Ferreira, J. & Perez, A.T. (2007). Long-term assessment of particulate matter using CHIMERE model. Atmospheric Environment, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2007.06.008 Monteiro, A.; Vautard, R.; Borrego, C. & Miranda, A.I. (2005). Long-term simulations of photo oxidant pollution over Portugal using the CHIMERE model. Atmospheric Environment 39, 3089-3101. Climate change, forest res and air quality in Portugal in the 21 st century 271 Dentener, F.; Stevenson, D.; Ellingsen, K.; van Noije, T.; Schultz, M.; Amann, M.; Atherton, C.; Bell, N.; Bergmann, D.; Bey, I.; Bouwman, L.; Butler, T.; Cofala, J.; Collins, B.; Drevet, J.; Doherty, R.; Eickhout, B.; Eskes, H.; Fiore, A.; Gauss, M.; Hauglustaine, D.; Horowitz, L.; Isaksen, I.; Josse, B.; Lawrence, M.; Krol, M.; Lamarque, J. F.; Montanaro, V.; Mϋller, J. F.; Peuch, V. H.; Pitari, G.; Pyle, J.; Rast, S.; Rodriguez, J.; Sanderson, M.; Savage, N.; Shindell, D.; Strahan, S.; Szopa, S.; Sudo, K.; Wild, O. & Zeng, G. (2006). The Global Atmospheric Environment for the Next Generation. Environment Science and Technology 40, 3586-3594. DGRF – Direcção Geral dos Recursos Florestais (Forestry Resources General Directorate), 2006: Inventário Florestal Nacional de 1995-1998 (3ª Revisão). Divisão de Planeamento e Estatística, Direcção Geral dos Recursos Florestais. (Lisboa, Portugal) EC - European Commission (2003). Forest Fires in Europe: 2002 fire campaign. Directorate- General Joint Research Centre, Directorate-General Environment, S.P.I.03.83 EN. (Ispra, Italy) EC - European Commission (2005). Forest Fires in Europe 2004. Directorate-General Joint Research Centre, Directorate-General Environment, S.P.I.05.147 EN. (Ispra, Italy) Fernández, J.; Montávez, J.P; Sáenz, J.; González-Rouco, J.F. & Zorita, E. (2007). Sensitivity of the MM5 mesoscale model to physical parameterizations for regional climate studies: Annual cycle. Journal of Geophysical Research 112, D04101, doi:10.1029/2005JD006649. Ferreira, J.; Salmim, L.; Monteiro, A.; Miranda, A. I. & Borrego, C. (2004). Avaliação de episódios de ozono em Portugal através da modelação fotoquímica. In: Actas da 8ª Conferência Nacional de Ambiente, 27-29 Outubro, Lisboa, Portugal, 383-384. (Proceedings in CD Rom). Flannigan, M.D.; Logan, K.A.; Amiro, B.D.; Skinner, W.R. & Stocks, B.J. (2005). Future area burned in Canada. Climatic Change 72, 1-16. Flannigan, M.D.; Krawchuk, M.A.; de Groot, W.J.; Wotton, B.M. & Gowman, L.M. (2009). Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18, 483–507. GENEMIS – Generation of European Emission Data for Episodes Project (1994). EUROTRAC Annual Report, 1993, Part 5. EUROTRAC International Scientific Secretariat, Garmisch- Partenkirchen. Ginoux, P.; Chin, M.; Tegen, I.; Prospero, J.M.; Holben, B.; Dubovik, O. & Lin, S.J. (2001). Sources and distributions of dust aerosols simulated with the GOCART model. Journal of Geophysical Research 106, 20255 - 20273. Grell, G.A.; Dudhia, J. & Stauffer, D.R. (1994). A description of the fifth-generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5), Tech. Rep. NCAR/TN-398+STR, Natl. Cent. for Atmos. Res., Boulder, Colorado. Hansen, M.C.; DeFries, R.S.; Townsend, J.R. & Sohlberg, R. (2000). Global land cover classification at 1 km spatial resolution using a classification tree approach. International Journal of Remote Sensing 21(6,7), 1331-1364. Hauglustaine, D.A.; Hourdin, F.; Jourdain, L.; Filiberti, M A.; Walters, S.; Lamarque, J F. & Holland, E.A. (2004). Interactive chemistry in the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique general circulation model: description and background tropospheric chemistry evaluation. Journal of Geophysical Research 109, D04314, doi:10.1029/2003JD003957. Hodzic, A.; Vautard, R.; Bessagnet, B.; Lattuati, M. & Moreto, F. (2005). Long-term urban aerosol simulation versus routine particulate matter. Atmospheric Environment 39, 5851-5864. Hogrefe, C.; Leung, L.R.; Mickley, L.J.; Hunt, S.W. & Winner, D.A. (2005). Considering climate change in U.S. air quality management. Environmental Manager, 19-23. Hoinka, K.; Carvalho, A. & Miranda, A.I. (2009). Regional-scale weather patterns and wildland fires in Central Portugal. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18, 36–49 DOI: 10.1071/WF07045 INE – Instituto Nacional de Estatística (2003). XIV Recenseamento Geral da População, resultados definitivos. INE, Estimativas Provisórias de População Residente para 31.12.2002, aferidas dos resultados definitivos dos Censos 2001, ajustados com as taxas de cobertura. Instituto Geográfico Português (IGP), Carta Adminisrativa Oficial de Portugal. (Lisboa, Portugal) IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor & H.L. Miller (Eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 996 pp. Jones, R.G.; Murphy, J.M.; Hassel, D.C. & Woodage, M.J. (2005). A high resolution atmospheric GCM for the generation of regional climate scenarios. Hadley Center Technical Note 63, Met Office, Exeter, UK. Jones, R.G.; Murphy, J.M.; Hassel, D.C. & Woodage, M.J. (2005). A high resolution atmospheric GCM for the generation of regional climate scenarios. Hadley Center Technical Note 63, Met Office, Exeter, UK. Lattuati, M. (1997). Contribution à l’étude du bilan de l’ozone troposphérique à l’interface de l’Europe et de l’Atlantique Nord: modélisation lagrangienne et mesures en altitude. Thèse de sciences, Université Paris 6, France. Miller, M. (2007). The San Diego Declaration on Climate Change and Fire Management. 4th International Wildland Fire Conference, 13-17 May, Seville, Spain. (Proceedings in CD Rom) Miranda, A.I.; Borrego, C.; Santos, P.; Sousa, M. & Valente, J. (2004). Database of Forest Fire Emission Factors. Departamento de Ambiente e Ordenamento, Universidade de Aveiro: 2004, AMB-QA-08/2004. Deliverable D251 of SPREAD Project [EVG1-CT-2001- 00043]. Miranda, A.I.; Ferreira, J.; Valente, J.; Santos; P.; Amorim, J.H. & Borrego, C. (2005a). Smoke measurements during Gestosa 2002 experimental field fires. International Journal of Wildland Fire 14, 107–116. Miranda, A.I.; Borrego, C.; Sousa, M.; Valente, J.; Barbosa, P. & Carvalho, A. (2005b). Model of Forest Fire Emissions to the Atmosphere. Deliverable D252 of SPREAD Project (EVG1- CT-2001-00043). Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro AMB- QA-07/2005, Aveiro, Portugal, 48 pp. Monteiro, A.; Miranda, A.I.; Borrego, C.; Vautard, R., Ferreira, J. & Perez, A.T. (2007). Long-term assessment of particulate matter using CHIMERE model. Atmospheric Environment, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2007.06.008 Monteiro, A.; Vautard, R.; Borrego, C. & Miranda, A.I. (2005). Long-term simulations of photo oxidant pollution over Portugal using the CHIMERE model. Atmospheric Environment 39, 3089-3101. Climate Change and Variability272 Moriondo, M.; Good, P.; Durão, R.; Bindi, M.; Giannakopoulos, C. & Corte-Real, J. (2006). Potential impact of climate change on fire risk in the Mediterranean area. Climate Research 31, 85-95. doi: 10.3354/cr031085 Nakicenovic, N.; Alcamo, J.; Davis, G.; de Vries, B.; Fenhann, J.; Gaffin, S.; Gregory, K.; Grübler, A.; Jung, T. Y.; Kram, T.; La Rovere, E. L.; Michaelis, L.; Mori, S.; Morita, T.; Pepper, W.; Pitcher, H.; Price, L.; Raihi, K.; Roehrl, A.; Rogner, H-H.; Sankovski, A.; Schlesinger, M.; Shukla, P.; Smith, S.; Swart, R.; van Rooijen, S.; Victor, N. & Dadi, Z. (2000). IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 599 pp. Passant, N.R. (2002). Speciation of U.K. emissions of non-methane VOC, AEAT/ENV/0545. Pausas, J.G. & Vallejo, V.R. (1999). 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Fire weather during the 2003, 2004 and 2005 fire seasons in Portugal. In V International Conference on Forest Fire Research. Ed D.X. Viegas, Figueira-da-Foz, 2006. Proceedings in CD. Climate change, forest res and air quality in Portugal in the 21 st century 273 Moriondo, M.; Good, P.; Durão, R.; Bindi, M.; Giannakopoulos, C. & Corte-Real, J. (2006). Potential impact of climate change on fire risk in the Mediterranean area. Climate Research 31, 85-95. doi: 10.3354/cr031085 Nakicenovic, N.; Alcamo, J.; Davis, G.; de Vries, B.; Fenhann, J.; Gaffin, S.; Gregory, K.; Grübler, A.; Jung, T. Y.; Kram, T.; La Rovere, E. L.; Michaelis, L.; Mori, S.; Morita, T.; Pepper, W.; Pitcher, H.; Price, L.; Raihi, K.; Roehrl, A.; Rogner, H-H.; Sankovski, A.; Schlesinger, M.; Shukla, P.; Smith, S.; Swart, R.; van Rooijen, S.; Victor, N. & Dadi, Z. (2000). IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 599 pp. Passant, N.R. (2002). Speciation of U.K. emissions of non-methane VOC, AEAT/ENV/0545. Pausas, J.G. & Vallejo, V.R. (1999). The role of fire in European Mediterranean Ecosystems. In: Chuvieco E. (ed.) Remote sensing of large wildfires in the European Mediterranean basin, Springer-Verlag, 3-16. Pyne, S. (2007). Megaburning: The Meaning of Megafires and the Means of the Management. 4th International Wildland Fire Conference, 13-17 May, Seville, Spain (http://www.wildfire07.es/doc/cd/INTRODUCTORIAS_ST/Pyne_ST1.pdf) Riebau, A. & Fox, D. (2001). The new smoke management. International Journal of Wildland Fire 10, 415–427. Santos, F.D.; Forbes, K. & Moita, R. (2002). Climate Change in Portugal. Scenarios, Impacts and Adaptation Measures – SIAM Project, Gradiva, Lisboa, Portugal, 454 pp. SAS Institude Inc. (2004). SAS OnlineDoc®, Version 9.1.3, SAS Institude Inc., Cary, NC. Schmidt, H.; Derognat, C.; Vautard, R. & Beekmann, M. (2001). A comparison of simulated and observed ozone mixing ratios for the summer of 1998 in Western Europe. Atmospheric Environment 35(36), 6277– 6297. Schumaker, L.L. (1981). Spline functions, basic theory. Wiley–Interscience, 553 pp. Sitch, S.; Cox, P.; Collins, W. & Huntingford, C. (2007). Indirect radiative forcing of climate change through ozone effects on the land-carbon sink. Nature 448(7155), 791-794. Solman, S.; Nuñez, M. & Cabré, M.F. (2007). Regional climate change experiments over southern South America. I: present climate. Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-007-0304-3 Spracklen, D.V.; Mickley, L.J.; Logan, J.A.; Hudman, R.C.; Yevich, R.; Flannigan, M.D. & Westerling, A.L. (2009). Impacts of climate change from 2000 to 2050 on wildfire activity and carbonaceous aerosol concentrations in the western United States. Journal of Geophysical Research 114, D20301, doi:10.1029/2008JD010966. Stohl, A.; Williams, E.; Wotawa, G. & Kromp-Kolb, H. (1996). A European inventory for soil nitric oxide emissions and the effect of these emissions on the photochemical formation of ozone. Atmospheric Environment 30, 374-3755. Szopa, S.; Hauglustaine, D.A.; Vautard, R. & Menut, L. (2006). Future global tropospheric ozone changes and impact on European air quality. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L14805, doi:10.1029/2006GL025860. Valente, J.; Miranda, A.I.; Lopes, A.G.; Borrego, C.; Viegas, D.X. & Lopes, M. (2007). A local-scale modelling system to simulate smoke dispersion. International Journal of Wildland Fire 16, 196-203. Van Dijck, S.; Laouina, A.; Carvalho, A.; Loos, S.; Schipper, A.; Kwast, H.; Nafaa R.; Antari, M.; Rocha, A.; Borrego, C. & Ritsema, C. (2005). Desertification in Northern Morocco due to effects of climate change on groundwater recharge. Desertification in the Mediterranean Region. A Security Issue. Eds. Kepner, W., Rubio, J., Mouat, D., Pedrazzini, F., Springer New York, 614 p., ISBN:1-4020-3758-9. Van Wagner, C.E. (1987). Development and Structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. Canadian Forest Service, Forestry Technical Report 35, Ottowa, Canada Vautard, R.; Bessagnet, B.; Chin, M. & Menut, L. (2005). On the contribution of natural Aeolian sources to particulate matter concentrations in Europe: testing hypotheses with a modelling approach. Atmospheric Environment 39 (18), 3291-3303 Vestreng, V. (2003). Review and revision of emission data reported to CLRTAP, EMEP Status Report, July 2003. Viegas, D.X.; Reis, R.M.; Cruz, M.G. & Viegas, M.T. (2004). Calibração do Sistema Canadiano de Perigo de Incêndio para Aplicação em Portugal (Calibration of the Canadian Fire Weather Index System for application over Portugal). Silva Lusitana 12(1), 77-93. Viegas, D.X.; Sol. B.; Bovio, G.; Nosenzo, A. & Ferreira, A.D. (1999). Comparative study of various methods of fire danger. International Journal of Wildland Fire 9(4), 235-246. Viegas, D.X.; Abrantes, T.; Palheiro, P.; Santo, F.E.; Viegas, M.T.; Silva, J. & Pessanha, L. (2006). Fire weather during the 2003, 2004 and 2005 fire seasons in Portugal. In V International Conference on Forest Fire Research. Ed D.X. Viegas, Figueira-da-Foz, 2006. Proceedings in CD. Climate Change and Variability274 The role of mycorrhizas in forest soil stability with climate change 275 The role of mycorrhizas in forest soil stability with climate change Simard, Suzanne W. and Austin, Mary E. x The role of mycorrhizas in forest soil stability with climate change Simard 1 , Suzanne W., and Austin 2 , Mary E. 1 University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada, and 2 Corvallis, USA 1. Introduction Global change and the related loss of biodiversity as a result of explosive human population growth and consumption are the most important issues of our time. Global change, including climate change, nitrogen deposition, land-use change and species invasions, are altering the function, structure and stability of the Earth’s ecosystems (Vitousek, 1994; Lovelock, 2009). Climate change specifically has been marked by an 80% increase in atmospheric CO 2 levels and a 0.74 °C increase in average global near-surface temperature over the period 1906–2005, with average temperature projected to increase by an additional 1 to 6 o C by 2100 (IPCC, 2007). Warming is expected to continue for centuries, even if greenhouse gas emission are stabilized, owing to time lags associated with climate processes and feedbacks (IPCC, 2007). Precipitation patterns have changed along with temperature, with average annual increases up to 20% in high-latitude regions but decreases up to 20% in mid- and low-latitudinal regions. The changes in temperature and precipitation patterns have resulted in higher sea levels, decreases in the extent of snow and ice, earlier timing of species spring events, upward and poleward shifts in species ranges, increases and earlier spring run-offs, and increases in forest disturbances by fires, insects and diseases. Of critical importance are the effects of global change on soils. Soils store one-third of the Earth’s carbon and, therefore, small shifts in soil biogeochemistry could affect the global carbon balance (Schlesinger & Andrews, 2004). The effects of global change on soils are complex, however, with multiple feedbacks across broad spatiotemporal scales that have the potential to further amplify climate change effects on the ecology of the Earth. Changes in soils are already occuring as a result of climate change, and include increased soil temperatures, increased nutrient availability, melting of permafrost, increased ground instability in mountainous regions, and increased erosion from floods (IPCC, 2007). Forests are especially important in the carbon balance of the Earth. Even though forests comprise only 30% of the terrestrial ecosystems, they store 86% of the above-ground carbon and 73% of the world’s soil carbon (Sedjo, 1993). On average, forests store two-thirds of their carbon in soils, where much of it is protected against turnover in soil aggregates or in chemical complexes (FAO, 2006). Forest soils not only absorb and store large quantities of carbon, they also release greenhouse gases such as CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O. The carbon sink and source strengths of soils have been considered relatively stable globally, with the strong sink strength of northern-mid latitudes roughly balanced by the strong source strength of the 15 Climate Change and Variability276 tropics (Houghton et al., 2000). However, climate change can upset the soil carbon balance, or its functional stability, by reducing carbon storage and causing a large positive feedback to atmospheric CO 2 levels. Indeed, the amount of CO 2 emissions being sequestered by terrestrial ecosystems is declining and they may become a source by the middle of the 21st century (Cox et al., 2000; Kurz et al., 2008a). When this happens, the atmospheric carbon trajectory will become less dependent on human activities and more so on the much larger carbon pools in terrestrial ecosystems and oceans (Cox et al., 2000). To underscore the gravity of this shift, the magnitude of total belowground respiration is already approximately 10 times greater than fossil fuel emissions annually (Lal, 2004). The effect of climate change on soil functional stability is particularly concerning in high latitude ecosystems (boreal forests, taiga, tundra and polar regions) because these systems store 30% of the Earth‘s carbon, and are currently warming at the fastest rates globally (IPCC, 2007; Schuur et al., 2009). The tundra-polar regions recently became a net source of atmospheric CO 2 (Apps et al., 2005). The functional stability of soils or ecosystems is defined in this paper as the maintenance of soil or ecological complexity within certain bounds so that key processes (e.g., carbon cycling, productivity) are protected and maintained (Levin, 2005). Although the climate change forecasts by the IPCC (2007) have the illusion of predictable and steady change over the next century, the real changes in climate will likely be sudden and unexpected (Lovelock, 2009). Indeed, non-linearity, unpredictability and disequilibrium characterize the Earth and its ecosystems as complex systems (Levin, 2005). Congruently, the IPCC (2007) is predicting an increase in the frequency of climatic extremes, such as heavy rains, heat waves and hot days/nights. These will affect disturbances caused by fire, drought, hurricanes, windstorms, icestorms, insect and disease outbreaks, and invasion by exotic species, and these are projected to increase in frequency, extent, severity and intensity as climate changes (Dale et al., 2001). Changes in natural disturbance regimes have the potential to increase the uncertainty in climate change projections because of their large effects on terrestrial carbon pools (Houghton et al., 2000; Kurz et al., 2008b). Disturbances could greatly overshadow the direct incremental effects of climate change on forest soil and ecosystem stabililty, or the effect of mitigation efforts (Kurz et al., 2008b). Large increases in forest fire and insect disturbances in Canada since 1980 have already reduced ecosystem carbon storage (Kurz & Apps, 1999). Disturbances not only kill plants and affect soil carbon storage, but they also accelerate nutrient cycling, alter mycorrhizal communities, and change soil foodweb dynamics. Carbon storage in soils involves complex feedbacks between plants and soil organisms. Carbon storage depends on the balance between carbon inputs through photosynthesis and outputs through autotrophic (root and mycorrhiza) and heterotrophic (soil microbial) respiration (Bardgett et al., 2008). Both photosynthesis and respiration are directly affected by climate change factors; including atmpospheric CO 2 level, soil nutrient availability, and temperature and precipitation patterns. They are also clearly affected by tree mortality. The direct effects of these climate change factors on plants then feed back to indirectly affect the structure and activity of soil microbial communities, which drive nutrient cycling, soil carbon storage, and soil stability (Bever et al., 2002a). The intimate cascading interaction between plants and soil microbes in their response to climate change factors is likely of critical importance in predicting the consequences of climate change to ecosystem stability and the carbon balance. Although the feedbacks are complex and poorly understood, we are already measuring climate change effects on soil carbon in high latitude ecosystems (Apps et al., 2005; Schuur et al., 2009) as well as on the composition and activity of soil communities involved in soil nutrient cycling in northern forests (Treseder, 2008). Of the soil microbes, mycorrhizal fungi are likely the most intimately involved and responsive to carbon fluxes between plants, soils and the atmosphere, and hence are important to consider in climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. This is because of their pivotal position at the root-soil interface, where they link the aboveground and belowground components of biogeochemical cycles. Mycorrhizal fungi are obligate symbionts with all forest tree species, where they scavenge soil nutrients and water from the soil in exchange for photosynthate from the tree. Without their fungal symbionts, most trees cannot acquire enough soil resources to grow or reproduce; without the trees, the fungi have insufficient energy to carry out their life cycle. Because of this obligatory exchange, mycorrhizal fungi are considered the primary vectors for plant carbon to soils (Talbot et al., 2008) and, conversely, the primary vectors of soil nutrients to plants (Hobbie & Hobbie, 2006). The fungal partner plays a role in other essential services as well, such as increasing soil structure, protecting soil carbon against mineralization, and protecting tree roots against disease or drought. A single mycorrhizal fungus can also link different plants together, thus forming mycorrhizal networks. These networks have been shown to facilitate regeneration of new seedlings, alter species interactions, and change the dynamics of plant communities (Selosse et al., 2006). As such, mycorrhizas are considered key players in the organization and stability of terrestrial ecosystems (Smith & Read, 1997; Simard, 2009). The objective of this synthesis paper is to review the role of mycorrhizas and mycorrhizal networks in the stability of forest ecosystems and forest soils as climate changes. We start by reviewing the role mycorrhizal fungi play in soil carbon flux dynamics. We then review some of the direct effects of climate change factors (specifically increased CO 2 , nutrient availability, temperature and drought) on plants and mycorrhizal fungi. Next, we briefly review the current and potential effects of climate change on forests in North America. The crux of our review, however, is on the role of mycorrhizas and mycorrhizal networks in helping to mitigate the effects of climate change through their stabilizing effects on forest ecosystems. We use our own research in the interior Douglas-fir forests of western North America to illustrate these stabilizing effects, including the role of mycorrhizal networks in forest recovery following disturbance and in soil carbon flux dynamics. We then discuss the potential roles that management can play in helping maintain forest stability as climate changes. The body of studies suggests that mycorrhizal fungi, and their capacity to stabilize forests, will have a significant impact on the terrestrial portion of the global carbon budget. 2. The role of mycorrhizal fungi in soil carbon fluxes The soil carbon pool is 3.3 times larger than the atmospheric carbon pool and 4.5 times larger than the biological carbon pool (Lal, 2004). As a result, the global carbon balance is strongly influenced by soil carbon flux dynamics. The global soil carbon pool is 2500 Gt, and is comprised of 1500 Gt organic carbon (70%) and 950 Gt inorganic carbon (30%) (Schlesinger & Andrews, 2004; Lal, 2004). The organic portion of the soil pool is comprised of plant roots, fungal biomass, microbial biomass, and decaying residues. It includes fast- cycling sugars, amino acids and proteins, and slow-cycling cellulose, hemicellulose and lignin. The soil organic pool is highly dynamic, variable, and greatly influenced by land use practices (Rice et al., 2004). [...]... balance 4 Effects of climate change on forests and their mycorrhizal communities The effects of climate change on forests are expected to be profound (Aber et al., 2001; Dale et al., 2001) Climate change is expected to affect tree species and forest distributions, forest dynamics and succession, the interactions and co-evolution between trees, mycorrhizal fungi and other mutualists, and ecosystem function... increased by 3-5 times through industrial fixation and fossil fuel burning, and now exceeds levels of 282 Climate Change and Variability natural nitrogen fixation world-wide (Vitousek, 199 4) Because plant productivity is nitrogen-limited globally, NPP has increased and plant distributions have shifted in response to nitrogen enrichment (Vitousek, 199 4; Treseder et al., 2005) Currently most nitrogen... 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Functional Ecology 22: 93 7 -94 0 The role of mycorrhizas in forest soil stability with climate change 299 Peter, M., Ayer F & Egli, S 2001 Nitrogen addition in a Norway spruce stand altered macromycete... change, impacts, and adaptation secenarios: climate change and forest and range management in British Columbia B.C Min For Range, Res Br., Victoria, BC Tech Rep 045 Staddon, P.L., & Fitter, A.H 199 8 Does elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide affect arbuscular mycorrhizas? Trends in Ecology & Evolution 13: 455-458 Staddon, P.L., Fitter, A.H & Robinson, D 199 9 Effects of mycorrhizal colonization and elevated... increase with atmospheric CO2 (Bazazz, 199 0) 3.4 Overall climate change effects The inter-related effects of climate change factors on forest ecosystems, plants and mycorrhizal fungi are complex and difficult to predict The results of field studies generally suggest that increased CO2, soil warming and soil drying should increase plant carbon allocation to mycorrhizas and shift the fungal community to species... Hoeksema & Forde, 2008; Kliejunas et al., 20 09) Specific changes in plant growth and physiology, population genetics, and interactions with changes in the mycorrhizal community, will also affect interplant interactions, plant community composition, and mycorrhizal fungal community composition Therefore, the direct and indirect effects of climate change on both plants and mycorrhizas should have direct consequences... direct effects of climate change factors (specifically increased CO2, nutrient availability, temperature and drought) on plants and mycorrhizal fungi Next, we briefly review the current and potential effects of climate change on forests in North America The crux of our review, however, is on the role of mycorrhizas and mycorrhizal networks in helping to mitigate the effects of climate change through their... Whitham et al., 2006) Forest productivity can change slowly in response to the relatively slow and directional changes in mean CO2 levels, temperature and precipitation, but it can also change rapidly in response to extreme events (e.g., drought, fire, insect outbreaks), which are occurring with greater frequency and severity world-wide (IPCC, 286 Climate Change and Variability 2007; Liu et al., 2010) There . fires, 195 9 to 199 9. Canadian Journal of Forestry Research 31, 512-525. Amiro, B.D.; Stocks, B.J.; Alexander, M.E.; Flannigan, M.D. & Wotton, B.M. (2001b). Fire, climate change, carbon and. fires, 195 9 to 199 9. Canadian Journal of Forestry Research 31, 512-525. Amiro, B.D.; Stocks, B.J.; Alexander, M.E.; Flannigan, M.D. & Wotton, B.M. (2001b). Fire, climate change, carbon and. Environment 39, 30 89- 3101. Climate Change and Variability2 72 Moriondo, M.; Good, P.; Durão, R.; Bindi, M.; Giannakopoulos, C. & Corte-Real, J. (2006). Potential impact of climate change on