(Luận văn) an analysis of housing credit program for urban hoausehold case study in hcmc housing development bank(hdbank)

INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES THE HAGUE THE NETHERLANDS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY VIETNAM =======oOo======= ng ep hi VIETNAM- NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS w n ad lo y th ju yi AN ANALYSIS OF HOUSING CREDIT PROGRAM FOR · URBAN HOUSEHOLD pl n ua al n va CASE STUDY IN HCMC HOUSING DEVELOPMENT BANK (HDBANK) fu ll BQ GIAO D~C E>AO Tl;\0 TRUONG Dl;\1 H9C KINH TE TP.HCM a nh oi m tz THUVIEN • z ht vb A THESIS PRESENTED BY k jm DOHONGNGOC gm co l m IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR THE an Lu DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS y te re Ho Chi Minh City, February 2009 n DR TRAN TIEN KHAI va SUPERVISOR CERTIFICATION "I certify that the substance of this study has not already been submitted for any degree and is not being currently submitted for any other degree ng ep hi I certify that to the best of my knowledge any help received in preparing this thesis, and all sources used, have been acknowledged in this dissertation." Ho Chi Minh City, February 2009 w n lo ad Do HongNgoc y th yi ju pl n ua al n va ll fu tz a nh oi m z k jm ht vb gm m co l an Lu n va y te re th i ACKNOWLEDGEMENT i would like to express deeply my appreciation and many thanks to the following individuals and organization helped me to finish this thesis ng ep hi Doctor Tran Tien Khai, the academic supervisor who has spent much time to give me his guides, comments, assistance in this research w n lo ad All lecturer and staff of Viet Nam-Netherland master program which is helpful program for me to obtain the knowledge and the method of science studying with international standard y th yi ju pl n ua al All my classmates, especiaily my group have encouragement, cooperation and help during my stUdying and doing the thesis va n All ofmy family members have help and encouragement for me to try my best to finish this research ll fu tz a nh oi m z j ht vb m k om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re th ii ABSTRACT ng ep hi w VietNam is going on the way of modernization, industrialization and especially of globalization with the purpose of economic development and enhancing the life standard of the resident This implies· to· increase further with a rise in the urbanization levels and in the population along with increasing the demand for housing in urban of VietNam To solve the d~mand of urban household, the government has many policies to support the resident such as housing finance system from bank or other financial institution, housing program for low inconie : This study only concentrates to analysis housing credit program from bank for urban household on two major aspects The first is the determinants of probability to get a housing loan And the second is the determinants of housing loan amount SO the household should improve their character and capacity to be able to borrow housing loan from bank Conversely, the bank also should have-suitable credit policy and condition for the customer to speed up effective and sustainable credit development n ad lo y th yi ju pl n ua al n va ll fu tz a nh oi m z j ht vb m k om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re th iii TABLES OF CONTENTS ·fi C ertl 1cat1on ··················~····· ng Acknowledgement : ii ep hi Abstract iii Contents :······· iv w List of tables and figures viii n ad lo ··Abbreviation ix y th CHAPTER I·: INTRODUCTION • · ~ ! ju yi 1.1 Prob-em statement ~········································································································· I pl 1.2 Objectives ofihe stlldy ~ l al n ua 1.2.1 General objective ~ va 1.2.2 Specific objective n · 1.3 Research questions ~·~··············································•···················································2 fu ll ·1.4 SuJi:J.macy on rese8.rch· methQdology- and data • m a nh oi 1.5 ·The organization of the thCsis ···~····················································································3 CHAPTER II: LITERATURE REVIEW tz z TheOry ba~kground vb 2.1.1 Major concepts j ht m Household Credit Borrowing Household credit market 2.1.2 Banking theory · k om l.c gm n a Lu Credit management Credit analysis and loan decision Issues in credit market 2.2' Experiences of housing development in some Asian countries •• • .•• ; n va 2.2.1 In Singapore ; , y te 2.2.3 In Thailand 10 re 2.2.2 In China , t iv 2.2.4 In Korea 11 2.3 Theoretical models and empirical studies for house demand 12 2.3.1 General observations 12 ng 2.3.2 Determinants ofhousingloan.- 13 ep hi 2.3.3.Determinants of loan amount 15 2.3.4 Theoretical models 16 w The basic models 16 n ad lo :The extended models ; 16 2.3 Empirical models applied in previous studies 17 y th ju yi CHAPTER III: RESEARCH METHODOLOGV 20 pl ·3·.1 AnalyticiJJ· framework ········~······················•·····································································20 al n ua 3.1.1 Hypotheses , 20 3.1.2Detenninants ofthe probability 20 va n 3, 1.3 Determinants of loan amount • 21 fu ll 3.1·.4 Specific empirical models • 22 m a nh oi Model1 _ 22 Description of the model1 22 tz Definition and explanation of variables of the model 22 z Expected signs of the variables' coefficients 23 vb j ht Model2 24 m Description of the model , • ; 24 k gm ·Definition and explanation of variables of the model2 24 om l.c Expected signs of the variables' coefficients 25 3.2 Data source· aild sa~pling 26 3.2.1 Data source 26 a Lu n Where is data source? : 26 Its va•I d.Ity? _ 26 What-Is n va When are they collected? 26 y t v te 3.2.2 Sampling • 27 re Population : : ; 26 (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) sample size 27 Sampling method 27 3.3 Analysi-s methods ······~····································································································29 3.3 !Statistical tests for descriptive analysis 29 ng ep hi 3.3 Correlation analysis 29 3.3.3 Statistical tests for validity of specific models 30 3.4 Analysis· too1 _ ~ 30 w n ad lo y th CHAPTER IV: ~SU~TS AND DISCUSSION , 31 yi ju 4.1 Situation ofhousingcreditprogram for urban household in Ho Chi Minh City 31 pl 4.1.1 Housing demand of urban household : 31 n ua al 4.1.2 National strategy on housing up to the year 2010 31 n va 4.1.3 The overview of urban finaricial system, borrowing by urban households and housing finance project 32 Financial system and source of credit to urban households in VietNam 32 fu ll Overview ofborrowing by urban households 32 · m a nh oi 4.1.4 HCMC Housing development program 35 4.2 IiCMC Housing D-evelopment Bank ·························~······-············································35 tz ·4~2.l.Overview ofHDBank 35 z vb 4.2.2 Housing credit program ofHDBank 38 j ht 4.3 HCMC ·aousing D.eveloprri.ent Bank ·····································································~·····40 m 4J~1Analysis ofborrower' characteristics .40 k gm 4.3.2 Correlation.analysis 44 om l.c 4.3.3 Statistical tests for validity of specific models 47 4.3 Description collecting data and choosing suitable method .48 ~esting and explanation 49 a Lu ·4.4 Results ·of ~odels n 4.4.1 ·:Empirical result- Model I ; 49 n va 4.4.1.1 Enter method ; 49 y te re 4.4.1.2 Backward LR method : ; ;· 50 t vi (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) 4.4.1.3 Analysis the factor affect to the probability to get housing loan for household : 50 4.4~2 Empiricalresult- Mod.el2 : 54 4.4.2.1 Enter method 54 ng 4.4.2.2 Backward LR method 54 ep hi 4.4.2.3 Analysis the factor affectto the probability to get housing loan for household , 54 w n CHAPTER V: CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATION 58 lo ad 5.1 Conclusion on the applied methodology and limitation • • •.••.•.• • .•• 58 y th 5.2Conclusi0n On the studie.d results 58 ju 5.3 Po.licy impli~ation in macro levCI • 59 yi pl 5.4 Policy implication for HDBank as well as housing credit program • • •• .•• 59 n va Annex n ua al References ll fu tz a nh oi m z j ht vb m k om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re t vii (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1: Compare mean of variable Table 1.2: Correlation Matrix Table L3: Durbin:_ Watson in model! ng ep hi Tahie 1.4: Durbin- Watson in model Table 1.5: Regression result of model from step to step by back ward method w Table 1.6: Regression result ofmodel2 froni stepl to step by back ward method n ad lo LIST OF FIGURES y th Figure 2.1: Structure ofprobability to get housing loan ju yi Figure 2.2: Structure of samples possibility to get a housing loan pl Figure 2.3: Growth oftotal assets and chartered capital in HDBank al n ua Figure 2.4: Growth ofloan outstanding debts in HDBank n va Figure 2.5: Outstanding ofhousing credit program and total loan outstanding in HDBank fu ll Figure 2.6: Regression standardized residual tz a nh oi m LIST OF ANNEXS: Annex 1: T-Test result z gm Annex 5: The result ofmodel2- Backward method k Annex 4:Theresult ofniodel2- Enter method jm Annex3: The resultofmodell- Backward method ht vb Annex 2: The result of model 1- Enter method m co l an Lu n va y te re t viii (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) ·ABBREVIATION HDBank: Housing Development Bank ng ADB: Asian Development Bank ep hi SBV: State Bank of VietNam SOB: State Owned Bank w · DLH: Department of Land and House n ad lo y th yi ju pl n ua al n va ll fu tz a nh oi m z j ht vb m k om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re t ix (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chisquare Sig df Step 346.401 10 000 Block 346.401 10 000 Model 346.401 10 000 -.052 820 Block 346.350 000 lo Model 346.350 000 Step 3(a) Step -.131 717 346.219 000 ju 346.219 000 Step -.984 321 345.235 000 345.235 000 -1.018 313 000 000 107 000 000 ng Step ep hi Step 2(a) Step w n ad y th Block yi Model pl Step 4(a) Model Block 344~217 Model 344.217 Step n Model 341.617 tz 341.617 a nh oi Block m -2.600 Step ll fu Step 6(a) va Step 5(a) n ua al Block z a A negative Chi-squares value indicates that the Chi-squares value has decreased from the previous step j ht vb Model Summary m k Nagelkerke R Square 697 968 ~3.289(a) 697 968 23.420(a) 697 967 966 25.422(b) 695 964 28.022(b) 692 961 18 (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) t · a EstimatiOn termmated at Jteratwn number 20 because maximum iterations has been reached Final solution cannot be found y te 696 re 24.404(a) n va n 23.237(a) a Lu om l.c Step Cox& SnellR Square gm ~2Log likelihoo d (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) b Estimation terminated at iteration number I because parameter estimates changed by Jess than 00 I Classification Table(a) ng ep hi 1Observed Predicted B Percentage Correct 94 96.9 1 192 99.5 w n Step B ad lo Overall Percentage y th B Step 98.6 yi ju 95 97.9 1 192 99.5 Overall Percentage pl 99.0 B n ua al Step 95 97.9 191 99.0 Overall Percentage Step4 B n va 98.6 96.9 191 99.0 B 96.9 191 99.0 98.3 94 96.9 190 98.4 97.9 k Overall Percentage jm ht vb B 94 z Overall Percentage Step 98.3 tz a nh oi Step m Overall Percentage ll fu 94 gm a The cut value IS 500 m co l an Lu n va y te re 19 (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) Variables in the Equation B ng ep hi 009 12.523 000 967 029 015 3.626 057 1.030 SEX -1.412 1.423 985 321 244 AGE -.181 146 1.552 213 834 EDU -.613 2.752 050 824 542 903 309 8.553 003 2.467 -1.727 1.145 2.275 131 178 1.110 2.972 139 709 3.034 007 003 6.612 010 1.007 19.476 4396.54 000 996 2873999 26.014 -13.519 4396.55 000 998 000 009 12.518 000 967 015 3.577 059 1.029 1.424 921 337 255 145 1.449 229 840 305 003 2.442 132 176 726 2.836 010 1.007 997 1795480 85.712 MATUR w n ad lo INCOME y th SIZE yi ju HHNO HOUSEVAL pl · Constant n ua al COLL n va -.033 LA AGE -.174 8.564 -1.737 1.152 2.273 1.043 2.971 ;123 007 003 6.582 19.006 4540.62 000 -13.650 4540.62 000 -.033 009 12.492 028 015 3.597 SEX -1.303 1.411 AGE -.171 143 967 058 1.028 852 356 1.442 230 843 305 9.072 003 2.508 -1.538 980 2.460 117 215 007 003 7.707 005 1.007 18.421 4617.60 000 997 1000706 y te t (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) re 20 n va 919 272 n COLL 000 a Lu HOUSEVAL 000 998 om l.c SIZE INCOME gm MATUR k LA m Constant j ht COLL vb HOUSEVAL z SIZE HHNO .893 tz a nh oi -1.366 m SEX INCOME Step J(a) 028 ll MATUR fu Step 2(a) Exp(B) Sig df -.033 LA Step 1(a) Wald S.E (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) S.E B Sig df Wald 75374 Constant ng ep hi -12.298 4617.61 000 998 000 -.031 008 13.848 000 969 024 012 3.638 056 1.024 -.151 134 1.269 260 860 873 286 9.296 002 2.394 -1.584 944 2.813 093 205 006 002 8.703 003 1.006 17.990 4795.83 000 997 6501364 7.068 000 998 000 LA· Step 4(a) MATUR AGE w INCOME n ad lo SIZE HOUSEVAL y th COLL ju yi Constant pl 009 16.098 000 966 024 011 4.431 035 1.024 -.245 093 6.971 008 782 n MATUR 4795.83 -.035 1.007 279 12.991 000 2.738 -1.239 837 2.192 139 290 002 9.818 002 1.007 n ua LA va AGE SIZE a nh oi 007 m HOUSEVAL ll fu INCOME 025 011 -.298 109 7.474 INCOME 891 235 14.340 HOUSEVAL 007 002 9.155 5.387 3.171 2.887 Constant 6.660 3.261 4.171 041 780.672 LA -.033 008 17.913 000 968 4.844 028 1.025 006 742 000 2.437 002 1.007 089 218.605 j ht m k gm Constant vb AGE z MATUR tz Step 6(a) -12.559 al Step 5(a) Exp(B) a Variable(s) entered on step 1: LA, MATUR, SEX, AGE, EDU, INCOME, SIZE, HHNO, HOUSEVAL, COLL~ om l.c a Lu 21 (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) t Sig ofthe Change y df te re Change in -2Log Likelihoo d n va Variable Model Log Likelihoo d n Model ifTerm Removed (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) ·step ng ep hi w n ad lo -54.513 85.788 000 MATUR -14.261 5.284 022 SEX AGE -12.178 1.119 290 -12.446 1.655 198 EDU -11.644 052 820 INCOME -28.774 34.310 000 SIZE -13.130 3.023 082 HiiNo -11.693 148 700 -17.706 12.176 000 COLL -12.227 1.217 270 LA -55.937 88.586 000 -14.306 5.323 021 -12.178 1.067 302 -12.466 1.643 200 -31.260 39.232 000 3.017 082 131 717 12.358 000 1.231 267 93.665 000 5.307 021 321 HOUSEVAL y th ju Step LA MATUR yi I pl SEX INCOME n ua al AGE va -13.153 SIZE -11.710 HOUSEVAL -17.823 COLL -12.260 LA -58.543 MATUR -14.363 SEX -12.202 984 AQE -12.524 1.628 vb 202 INCOME -31.336 39.252 000 SIZE -13.350 3.281 HOUSEVAL -18.816 14.213 gm ·caLL -12.260 1.101 294 LA -58.544 92.685 000 MATUR -14.571 4.739 029 AGE -12.893 1.381 240 INCOME -31.363 38.322 000 SIZE -13.922 3.441 064 iiOUSEVAL -18.930 13.456 000 COLL -12.711 1.018 313• LA -66.759 108.097 000 ll fu tz a nh oi m z j ht m 070 k 000 om l.c Step4 n Step3 HHNO n a Lu n va y te re t Step 22 (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) ng ep hi Step6 MATUR -15.402 5.383 020 AGE -20.020 14.618 000 INCOME -49.005 72.588 000 SIZE -14.011 2.600 107 HOUSEVAL -20.386 15.351 000 LA -69.172 110.322 000 -17.041 6.059 014 AGE -22.800 17.578 000 INCOME -49.013 70.005 000 HOUSEVAL -21.572 15.123 000 · MATuR w n ad lo y th Variables not in the Equation yi ju pl Score al Variables EDU n ua Step 2(a) Overall Statistics Variables va Step 3(b) EDU n Variables SEX EDU 824 033 856 122 727 17J 918 907 341 000 993 830 774 359 756 046 1.114 840 EDU 096 HHNO 018 COLL 722 1.620 805 SEX 1.046 306 EDU 003 955 SIZE 2.460 117 ·HHNO 618 432 COLL 101 751 4.461 485 m k 395 om l.c n a Lu n va y te re t a yanable(s) removed on step 2: EDU b Variable(s) removed on step 895 gm Overall Statistics j ht Variables SEX Overall Statistics Step 6(e) 049 vb Variables 824 z Step 5(d) tz HHNO Overall Statistics 049 a nh oi Step 4(c) m Overall Statistics ll fu HHNO Sig df 3: HHNO 23 (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) c Variable(s)removed on step 4: SEX d Variable(s) removed on step 5: COLL e Variable(s) removed tm step 6: SIZE ng ep hi w n ad lo y th yi ju pl n ua al n va ll fu tz a nh oi m z k jm ht vb gm m co l an Lu n va y te re 24 (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) ANNEX 4: THE RESULT OF MODEL 2- ENTER METHOD Regression Notes ng 09-DEC-2008 17:04:02 ep hi Output Created Comments Input w n ad lo y th yi ju ' Weight Split File N ofRows in Working Data File 193 Definition of Missing User-defined missing values are treated as missing pl Missing V~ilue · Handling Filter al Statistics are based on cases with no missing values for any variable used n ua Cases Used n va Syntax ll fu REGRESSION /MISSING LISTWISE /STATISTICS COEFF OUTS R ANOVA /CRITERIA=PIN(.05) POUT(.l 0) /NOORIGIN !DEPENDENT LA /METHOD=ENTER MATUR SEX AGE EDU INCOME SIZE HHNO HOUSEVAL Elapsed Time a nh oi m Resources 0:00:00.07 tz Additional ·Memory· Required for Residual Plots bytes j ht vb 3980 bytes z Memory Required m k om l.c gm n a Lu n va re y te yariables Entered/Removed(b) t 25 (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) Variables Removed Mode Variables Entered I Method HOUSEV AL, SEX, MATUR,· EDU, HHNO, INCOME AGE,.· 'SIZE(a) I ng ep hi Enter w n ·a All requested variables entered lo b Dependent Variable: LA ad y th Model Summary yi ju Std Error of the Estimate pl R 724 736 va 858(a) n ua Adjusted R Square R Square al Mode I 75.596 n a Predictors: (Constant), HOUSEVAL, SEX, MATUR, EDU, HHNO, INCOME, AGE, SIZE ll fu Sum of Squares Model 365913.057 64.030 OOO(a) k gm 192 m 3978806 561 5714.685 j ht 184 vb Residual 1051502 108 Total Sig F z Regressi 2927304 on 453 Mean Square tz df a nh oi m ANOVA(b) a Predictors: (Constant), HOUSEV AL, SEX, MATUR, EDU, HHNO, INCOME, AGE, SIZE om l.c b Dependent Variable: LA n a Lu t Sig y Standardized Coefficients te Unstandardized Coefficients re Model n va Coefficients(a) t 26 (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) Std Error B -220.666 60.377 353 140 SEX·· 1.799 AGE EDU (Constant) -3.655 000 097 2.526 012 11.266 006 160 873 1.370 1.503 058 911 363 44.821 33.372 054 1.343 181 15.146 1.300 562 11.653 000 -10.074 10.446 -.067 -.964 336 35.802 18.183 101 1.969 050 131 014 394 9.356 000 ng MATUR ep hi w INCOME n ad lo SIZE Beta HHNO y th HOUSEVAL ju a Dependent Variable: LA yi pl n ua al n va ll fu tz a nh oi m z j ht vb m k om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re t 27 (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) ANNEX 5: THE RESULT OF MODEL 2- BACKWARD METHOD Regression Notes ng 09-DEC-2008 17:05:45 Output Created ep hi Comments Filter Weight Split File NofRowsin Working Data File 193 Definition of Missing User-defined missing values are treated as missing Input w n ad lo y th ju yi Missing Value Handling pl Statistics are based on cases with no missing values for any variable used Resources Elapsed Time 0:00:00.17 Memory Required· 4516 bytes Additional Memory Required for Residual Plots bytes n va Syntax ,, n ua al Cases Used ll fu REGRESSION /MISSING LISTWISE /STATISTICS COEFF OUTS R ANOVA /CRITERIA=PIN(.05) POUT(.1 0) /NOORIGIN /DEPENDENT LA IMETHOD=BACKWARD MATUR SEX AGE EDU INCOME SIZE HHNO HOUSEVAL tz a nh oi m z k jm ht vb gm m co l an Lu n va y te re t 28 (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) Variables Entered/Removed(b) Variables Removed ng Mode Variables I Entered Method HOUSE\TAL,· ep hi SEX~ MATUR · · ' EDU,HHNO, INCOME, AGE, SIZE(a) w n lo ad SEX Backward (criterion: Probability ofFto-remove >= 00) AGE Backward (criterion: Probability ofFto-remove >= 00) SIZE Backward (criterion: Probability ofFto-remove >= 00) y th yi ju Enter pl n ua al Backward (criterion: Probability ofFto-remove>= 100) n va EDU ll a nh oi m b Dependent Variable: LA Model Summary 858(b) 736 726 75.396 857(c) 735 726 75,358 857(d) 734 727 75.204 855(e) 732 726 75.343 om l.c 75.596 gm 724 k 736 m 858(a) j ht vb R Std Error of the Estimate z a Adjusted R Square R Square tz Mode I fu a All requested vanables entered Predictors: (Constant), HOUSEVAL, SEX, MATUR, EDU, HHNO, INCOME, AGE, SIZE e Predictors: (Constant), HOUSEV AL, MATUR, HHNO, INCOME n va d Predictors: (Constant), HOUSEVAL, MATUR, EDU, HHNO, INCOME n c Predictors: (Constant), HOUSEV AL, MATUR, EDU, HHNO, INCOME, SIZE a Lu b Predictors: (Constant), HOUSEVAL, MATUR, EDU, HHNO, INCOME, AGE, SIZE y te re ANOVA(f) t 29 (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) Sum of Squares Model Mean Square df ng Regression 2927304.453 Residual 1051502.108 184 3978806.561 192 Regres.sion 2927158.717 Residual· 1051647.844 185 Total 3978806.561 192 Regression 2922545.608 Residual 1056260.953 186 3978806.561 192 w 64.030 OOO(a) 73.561 OOO(b) 85.7'73 OOO(c) 103.303 OOO(d) 128.232 OOO(e) 365913.057 ad ep hi Total Sig F 5714.685 418165.531 5684.583 n lo y th Total ju Regression 5678.822 584240.968 2921204.838 yi Residual 1057601.723 187 Total 3978806.561 192 pl n ua al 487090.935 5655.624 2911625.704 727906.426 Residual 1067180.857 188 5676.494 3978806.561 192 n Total va Regression fu ll a Predtctors: (Constant), HOUSEVAL, SEX; MATUR, EDU, HHNO, INCOME, AGE, SIZE m b Predictors: (Constant), HOUSEVAL, MATUR, EDU, HHNO, INCOME, AGE, SIZE a nh oi c Predictors: (Constant), HOUSEVAL, MATUR, EDU, HHNO, INCOME, SIZE d Predictors: (Constant), HOUSEVAL, MATUR, EDU, HHNO, INCOME tz e Predictors: (Constant), HOUSEV AL, MATUR, HHNO, INCOME z f Dependent Variable: LA j ht vb m k om l.c gm n a Lu n va Coefficients(a) 30 (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) t Sig t Standardized Coefficients y · Unstandardized Coefficients te re Model (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) Std Error B l -3.655 000 097 2.526 012 11.266 006 160 873 1.370 1.503 058 911 363 EDU 44.821 33.372 054 1.343 181 INCOME 15.146 1.300 562 11.653 000 -10.074 10.446 -.067 -.964 336 35.802 18.183 101 1.969 050 131 014 394 9.356 000 J.736 000 -220.666 60.377 353 140 SEX 1.799 AGE (Constant) MATUR ng ep hi w n SIZE ad lo HHNO y th HOUSEVAL -218.346 ju (Constant) - 139 096 2.531 012 1.341 1.489 .057 901 369 44.316 33.134 054 1.337 183 15.136 1.295 11.691 000 -9.852 10.326 -.066 -.954 341 fu yi 35.787 18.135 101 1.973 050 131 014 395 9.394 000 -3.930 000 2.611 010 1.214 226 567 11.883 000 -.025 628 047 9.399 ;000 -3.958 000 pl EDU n ua al AGE 562 a nh oi 099 39.720 32.722 048 INCOME 15.272 1.285 SIZE -3.815 7.852 j ht -.486 HHNO 36.178 18.121 102 1.997 131 014 395 -189.006 47.747 360 138 099 2.614 010 EDU 42.043 32.305 051 1.301 195 ·INCOME 15.11() L239 561 12.197 000 HHNO 31.498 15.317 089 2.056 a Lu 131 014 394 9.407 000 -'140.962 30.339 -4.646 000 346 138 095 2.511 013 15.345 1.228 570 12.496 000 om l.c 041 n va y te re MATlJR gm (Constant) k HOUSEVAL m MATUR vb (Constant) 138 z HOUSEVAL 47.876 tz EDU -188.173 n 361 (Constant) MATUR m · HOUSEVAL ll iiHNo n SIZE va INCOME· 58.449 351 MATUR Beta 31 (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) th INCOME (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank) (Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)(Luận.văn).an.analysis.of.housing.credit.program.for.urban.hoausehold.case.study.in.hcmc.housing.development.bank(hdbank)