MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING THE STATE BANK OF VIETNAM HO CHI MINH UNIVERSITY OF BANKING LUU THANH HUONG IMPACT OF COVID 19 ON VIETNAM’S STOCK MARKET GRADUATION THESIS MAJOR FINANCE – BANKING CO[.]
MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING THE STATE BANK OF VIETNAM HO CHI MINH UNIVERSITY OF BANKING LUU THANH HUONG IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON VIETNAM’S STOCK MARKET GRADUATION THESIS MAJOR: FINANCE – BANKING CODE: 34 02 01 HO CHI MINH CITY, 2022 Tai ngay!!! Ban co the xoa dong chu nay!!! MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING THE STATE BANK OF VIETNAM HO CHI MINH UNIVERSITY OF BANKING NAME: LUU THANH HUONG STUDENT CODE: 050607190189 CLASS: HQ7-GE16 IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON VIETNAM’S STOCK MARKET GRADUATION THESIS MAJOR: FINANCE – BANKING CODE: 34 02 01 ACADEMIC ADVISOR DR NGUYEN DUY LINH HO CHI MINH CITY, 2022 i ABSTRACT The outbreak of COVID-19 hurt the socioeconomic activities and stock markets of many countries around the world Although Vietnam is one of the countries that responded well to COVID-19, its impact on the economy is not small Especially for the Vietnamese stock market The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Vietnamese stock market Event Study is the main methodology of this thesis The three events selected for the study include: (i) On March 30, 2020, the Government issued a directive to implement nationwide social distancing; (ii) On July 28, 2020, announced the implementation of social isolation in Da Nang; and (iii) On July 9, 2021, Ho Chi Minh City applied directive 16 The paper shows that the effects of the three events on stock prices are inconsistent The cumulative abnormal return (CAR) is negative after the first and third events are announced, but the CAR is positive after the second event is announced Of the three events, the stock price response to the first event was insignificant, while the other two events were statistically significant after the event The results from this study add further insights into the effects of disease on stock price responses ii DECLARATION I honestly declare that this graduation thesis entitled ―Impact of COVID-19 on Vietnam’s stock market‖ is the result of my original research work under the guidance of Dr Nguyen Duy Linh, my academic advisor This thesis has never been submitted for a bachelor's degree anywhere else before This thesis is the result of the author's own research, and the results of the research are trustworthy The thesis does not consist of any previously published content or content made by others, except for citations that are fully cited in the thesis Ho Chi Minh City, November 2022 Luu Thanh Huong iii ACKNOWLEDGMENT First and foremost, I would like to express my sincere thanks to Dr Nguyen Duy Linh, the supervisor who directly guides my thesis From the comments, the guidance is extremely valuable It has created the best conditions for me to complete this thesis I would also like to express my sincere thanks to the teachers at the Ho Chi Minh University of Banking, who devotedly imparted knowledge during my study at the school I am also very grateful to my family, friends, and relatives, who have always been by my side to encourage me throughout the process of completing the thesis iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT i DECLARATION ii ACKNOWLEDGMENT iii TABLE OF CONTENTS iv LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS vii LIST OF TABLES vii LIST OF FIGURES vii CHAPTER RESEARCH OVERVIEW 1.1 Introduction .1 1.2 Research situation related to the thesis content 1.3 Research objectives 1.3.1 Overall objective 1.3.2 Specific objectives .3 1.4 Research questions 1.5 Research subject and scope of study 1.5.1 Research subject 1.5.2 Scope of the research 1.6 Research methods .4 1.7 Thesis structure CHAPTER LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Theoretical basis .7 2.1.1 Securities market v 2.1.2 Stocks 2.2 Related theories 10 2.2.1 The theory efficient market .11 2.2.2 The theory of behavioral finance 12 2.2.3 The random walk theory of stock prices 12 2.3 Review of previous studies .13 2.3.1 Studies in the world 13 2.3.2 Studies in Vietnam 17 CONCLUSION OF CHAPTER 24 CHAPTER RESEARCH MODEL 25 3.1 Research model .25 3.2 Research hypothesis 29 CONCLUSION OF CHAPTER 31 CHAPTER RESEARCH DATA 32 4.1 Overview of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the international market 32 4.2 Overview of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Vietnam's stock market 33 4.3 Research data 36 CONCLUSION OF CHAPTER 37 CHAPTER RESEARCH RESULTS 38 5.1 Research results 38 5.2 Discuss the results 40 5.2.1 The first event: On March 30, 2020 41 vi 5.2.2 The second event: On July 28, 2020 43 5.2.3 The third event: On July 9, 2021 .44 5.3 Hypothesis testing 45 CONCLUSION CHAPTER .48 CHAPTER CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .49 6.1 Conclusions .49 6.2 Recommendations 50 REFERENCES 52 APPENDICES 56 Appendix 1: 30 firms that were in the VN30 basket at the time of the research 56 Appendix 2: Results of abnormal return and cumulative abnormal return 57 Appendix 3: Hypothesis testing .59 vii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS Abbreviations Definition ADB Asian Development Bank AR Abnormal Returns CAR Cumulative Abnormal Returns GDP Gross Domestic Product ODV Open Development Vietnam WHO World Health Organization LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1: Previous research results 20 Table 5.1: Abnormal returns (AR) and t-test results for three lockdown times due to COVID-19 in Vietnam 40 Table 5.2: Cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) and t-test results for three lockdowns due to COVID-19 in Vietnam .41 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 3.1: Event window 29 Figure 5.1: The cumulative abnormal return (CAR) findings for Event .38 Figure 5.2: The cumulative abnormal return (CAR) findings for Event .39 Figure 5.3: The cumulative abnormal return (CAR) findings for Event .39 50 lockdown in Da Nang was much smaller than the first lockdown event across Vietnam at the end of March 2020 At the third event, when Ho Chi Minh City, one of the country's key economies accounting for 22% of the country's GDP, announced a lockdown, to limit the spread of coronavirus This has greatly affected the supply chain and business results of businesses, especially those in the South The research has shown that stock prices tend to decrease in the first and third events and tend to increase in the second event This study contributes to the previous literature on the impact of the epidemic on the stock prices of companies listed on the Vietnamese stock market, the sample selected for the research stocks in the VN30 index It considered the full impact of all three events related to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 and 2021 in Vietnam on the stock market An important market for the nation's businesses and economy It also clarifies the timely responses and decisions of Vietnamese leaders to achieve the dual goal of both fighting the COVID-19 pandemic and supporting businesses to recover soon after the pandemic 6.2 Recommendations In the face of the undeniable adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, it has also caused significant impacts on the business activities of businesses as well as the entire economy Meanwhile, during the outbreak of COVID-19 in Vietnam, the number of investors opening new securities accounts increased at a record speed The main reason comes from the Government's social blockade policy, causing the real estate market to freeze, banks cutting interest rates to support businesses in difficulty due to COVID-19, causing savings interest rates to decrease This has led to massive cash flow being pushed into the stock market And the stock market has appeared many new investors New individual investors (F0) are mainly amateurs, so even though they participate in large numbers, they have a lower degree of portfolio diversification, and a smaller trading size and volume compared to other institutional investors Individual investors often not have a long-term 51 investment strategy and not follow specific investment philosophies Therefore, based on research results on the impact of COVID-19 on Vietnam's stock market, this study offers some implications for investors Firstly, during the COVID-19 pandemic, some businesses have a high risk of increasing bad debt, and unusually large-scale withdrawals can cause corporate crises or even bankruptcy Therefore, investors should learn carefully about investment enterprises before making investment decisions to avoid making wrong decisions when investing in businesses that are not good or have no growth potential Secondly, before each investment decision, investors need to update information, especially information that is likely to have a strong impact on the economy and the stock market (such as the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic), to analyze and have a timely response strategy Investors need to pay close attention to quickly check official information and its developments Keeping up to date with current events along with correct information handling in the market is essential This will help investors seize investment opportunities to gain profits or minimize losses Thirdly, investors when investing in the stock market during this period Especially for new investors (F0), need to be very careful with misleading information to preserve profit margins and minimize investment risks 52 REFERENCES VIETNAMESE Open Development Vietnam, 2020 Timeline of COVID -19 and Vietnam policy actions at a glance [Online] Available at: 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56 APPENDICES Appendix 1: 30 firms that were in the VN30 basket at the time of the research Number Stock Free-Float (%) Number of shares outstanding (share) Market capitalization (billion VND) ACB 85,00% 3.377.435.134 68.899,68 BID 5,00% 5.058.523.776 164.907,88 CTG 15,00% 4.805.750.653 104.044,50 GVR 5,00% 4.000.000.000 60.400,00 BVH 10,00% 742.322.764 35.668,61 FPT 85,00% 1.091.294.390 81.070,26 PLX 10,00% 1.270.296.099 40.023,66 GAX 5,00% 1.913.950.000 205.175,44 HDB 70,00% 2.505.039.160 41.501,81 10 HPG 55,00% 5.814.785.700 98.269,88 11 POW 25,00% 2.341.871.600 24.121,28 12 KDH 65,00% 703.422.152 17.096,40 13 MBB 55,00% 4.533.986.161 72.997,18 14 MSN 45,00% 1.417.074.447 106.494,61 15 TCB 65,00% 3.511.476.908 80.544,76 16 MWG 70,00% 1.449.381.835 79.617,22 17 NVL 40,00% 1.934.234.703 146.237,54 18 PDR 40,00% 670.912.886 32.709,17 19 PNJ 85,00% 231.683.357 25.756,42 20 VIC 25,00% 3.868.111.144 216.631,54 21 SAB 11,00% 641.281.186 123.767,27 22 SSI 70,00% 1.110.380.604 24.124,05 23 STB 100,00% 1.880.231.338 30.069,19 24 TPB 50,00% 1.590.771.529 31.793,29 25 VCB 11,00% 4.732.516.523 321.811,13 26 VHM 30,00% 4.348.200.803 208.791,92 27 VJC 50,00% 541.611.334 58.981,47 28 VNM 40,00% 2.089.349.467 160.926,57 29 VPB 70,00% 6.686.954.035 104.390,32 30 VRE 40,00% 2.272.318.400 54.535,64 57 Appendix 2: Results of abnormal return and cumulative abnormal return Results of abnormal return (AR) t 30/03/2020 28/07/2020 09/07/2021 AR t-test AR t-test AR t-test -15 0,009 1,752* -0,014 -4,732*** 0,009 2,175** -14 0,002 0,321 0,005 2,351** -0,004 -1,191 -13 -0,003 -0,868 0,008 2,819*** 0,004 1,342 -12 0,007 1,753* -0,022 -7,541*** -0,004 -0,981 -11 0,004 0,915 -0,005 -3,449*** 0,000 -0,032 -10 0,001 0,186 -0,005 -1,846* 0,009 2,628** -9 0,006 0,928 0,004 2,271** 0,010 3,165*** -8 -0,005 -1,229 0,011 5,087*** 0,000 0,068 -7 0,006 1,716* -0,011 -5,263*** -0,005 -1,46 -6 0,015 2,277** -0,020 -7,14*** 0,007 2,727** -5 0,007 1,614 -0,016 -5,984*** 0,005 1,313 -4 0,008 1,225 -0,010 -4,879*** -0,006 -1,095 -3 -0,010 -2,339** 0,015 4,938*** -0,045 -7,092*** -2 -0,018 -2,573** -0,033 -14,338*** 0,017 1,987* -1 -0,014 -2,564** -0,056 -16,075*** -0,010 -2,505** 0,004 0,858 0,027 7,196*** -0,023 -4,805*** -0,003 -0,589 -0,036 -5,544*** -0,047 -4,775*** -0,002 -0,45 0,021 8,402*** -0,001 -0,282 -0,003 -0,757 0,002 0,766 -0,020 -4,014*** -0,006 -1,513 0,040 9,074*** 0,008 2,225** -0,004 -0,775 0,020 9,174*** 0,002 0,804 0,000 -0,016 0,016 7,069*** -0,046 -10,639*** -0,009 -1,679 0,005 1,823* 0,023 6,505*** 0,000 0,09 -0,001 -1,095 -0,007 -2,94*** 0,001 0,171 0,010 4,44*** 0,015 5,494*** 10 0,006 1,216 0,005 1,786* -0,021 -6,572*** 11 0,003 0,734 0,010 5,346*** 0,000 -0,124 12 -0,002 -0,64 0,012 6,319*** 0,005 1,881* 13 0,000 -0,147 -0,001 -0,4 -0,004 -1,91* 14 -0,005 -1,123 0,002 1,162 0,011 6,046*** 15 -0,003 -0,848 -0,014 -6,775*** 0,012 3,39*** 58 Results of cumulative abnormal return (CAR) 30/03/2020 [-t;0) 28/07/2020 09/07/2021 CAR t-test CAR t-test CAR t-test -15 0,013 0,881 -0,147 -11,609*** -0,012 -0,579 -14 0,005 0,314 -0,133 -12,834*** -0,021 -1,166 -13 0,003 0,211 -0,138 -13,059*** -0,016 -0,929 -12 0,006 0,437 -0,147 -13,455*** -0,021 -1,237 -11 -0,001 -0,038 -0,125 -13,084*** -0,016 -1,052 -10 -0,005 -0,285 -0,12 -12,561*** -0,016 -1,034 -9 -0,006 -0,361 -0,115 -11,577*** -0,025 -1,623 -8 -0,012 -0,946 -0,119 -12,642*** -0,035 -2,307** -7 -0,007 -0,567 -0,131 -14,429*** -0,035 -2,445** -6 -0,013 -1,038 -0,12 -12,981*** -0,031 -2,385** -5 -0,028 -2,106** -0,1 -12,261*** -0,038 -3,037*** -4 -0,035 -2,519** -0,083 -11,853*** -0,043 -3,715*** -3 -0,042 -3,081*** -0,074 -12,738*** -0,037 -3,31*** -2 -0,032 -2,879*** -0,088 -17,86*** 0,007 0,753 -0,005 -0,612 -0,015 -2,173** -0,048 -4,589*** -0,008 -0,846 -0,013 -1,508 -0,069 -5,096*** -0,013 -1,269 0,027 2,821*** -0,061 -4,429*** -0,017 -1,413 0,047 4,381*** -0,058 -4,026*** -0,017 -1,289 0,063 6,113*** -0,105 -6,081*** -0,027 -1,922* 0,068 6,149*** -0,081 -4,797*** -0,026 -1,846* 0,067 6,078*** -0,089 -5,185*** -0,026 -1,779* 0,077 6,883*** -0,074 -4,066*** 10 -0,02 -1,295 0,082 6,58*** -0,095 -4,856*** 11 -0,017 -1,122 0,092 6,827*** -0,095 -4,251*** 12 -0,019 -1,18 0,104 7,285*** -0,09 -3,998*** 13 -0,02 -1,13 0,103 6,802*** -0,094 -4,238*** 14 -0,024 -1,236 0,105 6,697*** -0,083 -3,778*** 15 -0,027 -1,375 0,091 6,355*** -0,07 -3,415*** 59 Appendix 3: Hypothesis testing Check for the existence of AR Results of the first event t-test t 30/03/2020 Sig (2-tailed) AR t-test Hypothesis testing -15 0,009 1,752* 0,090 Reject H0 -14 0,002 0,321 0,751 Do not reject H0 -13 -0,003 -0,868 0,393 Do not reject H0 -12 0,007 1,753* 0,090 Reject H0 -11 0,004 0,915 0,368 Do not reject H0 -10 0,001 0,186 0,854 Do not reject H0 -9 0,006 0,928 0,361 Do not reject H0 -8 -0,005 -1,229 0,229 Do not reject H0 -7 0,006 1,716* 0,097 Reject H0 -6 0,015 2,277** 0,030 Reject H0 -5 0,007 1,614 0,117 Do not reject H0 -4 0,008 1,225 0,230 Do not reject H0 -3 -0,010 -2,339** 0,026 Reject H0 -2 -0,018 -2,573** 0,015 Reject H0 -1 -0,014 -2,564** 0,016 Reject H0 0,004 0,858 0,398 Do not reject H0 -0,003 -0,589 0,560 Do not reject H0 -0,002 -0,45 0,656 Do not reject H0 -0,003 -0,757 0,455 Do not reject H0 -0,006 -1,513 0,141 Do not reject H0 -0,004 -0,775 0,444 Do not reject H0 0,000 -0,016 0,987 Do not reject H0 -0,009 -1,679 0,104 Do not reject H0 0,000 0,09 0,929 Do not reject H0 0,001 0,171 0,865 Do not reject H0 10 0,006 1,216 0,234 Do not reject H0 11 0,003 0,734 0,469 Do not reject H0 12 -0,002 -0,64 0,527 Do not reject H0 13 0,000 -0,147 0,884 Do not reject H0 14 -0,005 -1,123 0,271 Do not reject H0 15 -0,003 -0,848 0,404 Do not reject H0 60 Results of the second event t-test t 28/07/2020 Sig (2-tailed) AR t-test Hypothesis testing -15 -0,014 -4,732*** 0,000 Reject H0 -14 0,005 2,351** 0,026 Reject H0 -13 0,008 2,819*** 0,009 Reject H0 -12 -0,022 -7,541*** 0,000 Reject H0 -11 -0,005 -3,449*** 0,002 Reject H0 -10 -0,005 -1,846* 0,075 Reject H0 -9 0,004 2,271** 0,031 Reject H0 -8 0,011 5,087*** 0,000 Reject H0 -7 -0,011 -5,263*** 0,000 Reject H0 -6 -0,020 -7,14*** 0,000 Reject H0 -5 -0,016 -5,984*** 0,000 Reject H0 -4 -0,010 -4,879*** 0,000 Reject H0 -3 0,015 4,938*** 0,000 Reject H0 -2 -0,033 -14,338*** 0,000 Reject H0 -1 -0,056 -16,075*** 0,000 Reject H0 0,027 7,196*** 0,000 Reject H0 -0,036 -5,544*** 0,000 Reject H0 0,021 8,402*** 0,000 Reject H0 0,002 0,766 0,450 Do not reject H0 0,040 9,074*** 0,000 Reject H0 0,020 9,174*** 0,000 Reject H0 0,016 7,069*** 0,000 Reject H0 0,005 1,823* 0,079 Reject H0 -0,001 -1,095 0,283 Do not reject H0 0,010 4,44*** 0,000 Reject H0 10 0,005 1,786* 0,085 Reject H0 11 0,010 5,346*** 0,000 Reject H0 12 0,012 6,319*** 0,000 Reject H0 13 -0,001 -0,4 0,692 Do not reject H0 14 0,002 1,162 0,255 Do not reject H0 15 -0,014 -6,775*** 0,000 Reject H0 61 Results of the third event t-test t 09/07/2021 Sig (2-tailed) AR t-test Hypothesis testing -15 0,009 2,175** 0,038 Reject H0 -14 -0,004 -1,191 0,243 Do not reject H0 -13 0,004 1,342 0,190 Do not reject H0 -12 -0,004 -0,981 0,335 Do not reject H0 -11 0,000 -0,032 0,975 Do not reject H0 -10 0,009 2,628** 0,014 Reject H0 -9 0,010 3,165*** 0,004 Reject H0 -8 0,000 0,068 0,946 Do not reject H0 -7 -0,005 -1,46 0,155 Do not reject H0 -6 0,007 2,727** 0,011 Reject H0 -5 0,005 1,313 0,199 Do not reject H0 -4 -0,006 -1,095 0,282 Do not reject H0 -3 -0,045 -7,092*** 0,000 Reject H0 -2 0,017 1,987* 0,056 Reject H0 -1 -0,010 -2,505** 0,018 Reject H0 -0,023 -4,805*** 0,000 Reject H0 -0,047 -4,775*** 0,000 Reject H0 -0,001 -0,282 0,780 Do not reject H0 -0,020 -4,014*** 0,000 Reject H0 0,008 2,225** 0,034 Reject H0 0,002 0,804 0,428 Do not reject H0 -0,046 -10,639*** 0,000 Reject H0 0,023 6,505*** 0,000 Reject H0 -0,007 -2,94*** 0,006 Reject H0 0,015 5,494*** 0,000 Reject H0 10 -0,021 -6,572*** 0,000 Reject H0 11 0,000 -0,124 0,902 Do not reject H0 12 0,005 1,881* 0,070 Reject H0 13 -0,004 -1,91* 0,066 Reject H0 14 0,011 6,046*** 0,000 Reject H0 15 0,012 3,39*** 0,002 Reject H0 62 Check for the existence of CAR Results of the first event t-test [t;0) 30/03/2020 Sig (2-tailed) CAR t-test Hypothesis testing -15 0,013 0,881 0,386 Do not reject H0 -14 0,005 0,314 0,755 Do not reject H0 -13 0,003 0,211 0,834 Do not reject H0 -12 0,006 0,437 0,666 Do not reject H0 -11 -0,001 -0,038 0,970 Do not reject H0 -10 -0,005 -0,285 0,778 Do not reject H0 -9 -0,006 -0,361 0,720 Do not reject H0 -8 -0,012 -0,946 0,352 Do not reject H0 -7 -0,007 -0,567 0,575 Do not reject H0 -6 -0,013 -1,038 0,308 Do not reject H0 -5 -0,028 -2,106** 0,044 Reject H0 -4 -0,035 -2,519** 0,018 Reject H0 -3 -0,042 -3,081*** 0,004 Reject H0 -2 -0,032 -2,879*** 0,007 Reject H0 -0,005 -0,612 0,545 Do not reject H0 -0,008 -0,846 0,404 Do not reject H0 -0,013 -1,269 0,215 Do not reject H0 -0,017 -1,413 0,168 Do not reject H0 -0,017 -1,289 0,207 Do not reject H0 -0,027 -1,922* 0,064 Reject H0 -0,026 -1,846* 0,075 Reject H0 -0,026 -1,779* 0,086 Reject H0 10 -0,020 -1,295 0,206 Do not reject H0 11 -0,017 -1,122 0,271 Do not reject H0 12 -0,019 -1,18 0,248 Do not reject H0 13 -0,020 -1,13 0,268 Do not reject H0 14 -0,024 -1,236 0,227 Do not reject H0 15 -0,027 -1,375 0,180 Do not reject H0 63 Results of the second event t-test [t;0) 28/07/2020 Sig (2-tailed) CAR t-test Hypothesis testing -15 -0,147 -11,609*** 0,000 Reject H0 -14 -0,133 -12,834*** 0,000 Reject H0 -13 -0,138 -13,059*** 0,000 Reject H0 -12 -0,147 -13,455*** 0,000 Reject H0 -11 -0,125 -13,084*** 0,000 Reject H0 -10 -0,120 -12,561*** 0,000 Reject H0 -9 -0,115 -11,577*** 0,000 Reject H0 -8 -0,119 -12,642*** 0,000 Reject H0 -7 -0,131 -14,429*** 0,000 Reject H0 -6 -0,120 -12,981*** 0,000 Reject H0 -5 -0,100 -12,261*** 0,000 Reject H0 -4 -0,083 -11,853*** 0,000 Reject H0 -3 -0,074 -12,738*** 0,000 Reject H0 -2 -0,088 -17,86*** 0,000 Reject H0 -0,015 -2,173** 0,038 Reject H0 -0,013 -1,508 0,142 Do not reject H0 0,027 2,821*** 0,009 Reject H0 0,047 4,381*** 0,000 Reject H0 0,063 6,113*** 0,000 Reject H0 0,068 6,149*** 0,000 Reject H0 0,067 6,078*** 0,000 Reject H0 0,077 6,883*** 0,000 Reject H0 10 0,082 6,58*** 0,000 Reject H0 11 0,092 6,827*** 0,000 Reject H0 12 0,104 7,285*** 0,000 Reject H0 13 0,103 6,802*** 0,000 Reject H0 14 0,105 6,697*** 0,000 Reject H0 15 0,091 6,355*** 0,000 Reject H0 64 Results of the third event t-test [t;0) 09/07/2021 Sig (2-tailed) CAR t-test Hypothesis testing -15 -0,012 -0,579 0,567 Do not reject H0 -14 -0,021 -1,166 0,253 Do not reject H0 -13 -0,016 -0,929 0,361 Do not reject H0 -12 -0,021 -1,237 0,226 Do not reject H0 -11 -0,016 -1,052 0,301 Do not reject H0 -10 -0,016 -1,034 0,310 Do not reject H0 -9 -0,025 -1,623 0,115 Do not reject H0 -8 -0,035 -2,307** 0,028 Reject H0 -7 -0,035 -2,445** 0,021 Reject H0 -6 -0,031 -2,385** 0,024 Reject H0 -5 -0,038 -3,037*** 0,005 Reject H0 -4 -0,043 -3,715*** 0,001 Reject H0 -3 -0,037 -3,31*** 0,003 Reject H0 -2 0,007 0,753 0,457 Do not reject H0 -0,048 -4,589*** 0,000 Reject H0 -0,069 -5,096*** 0,000 Reject H0 -0,061 -4,429*** 0,000 Reject H0 -0,058 -4,026*** 0,000 Reject H0 -0,105 -6,081*** 0,000 Reject H0 -0,081 -4,797*** 0,000 Reject H0 -0,089 -5,185*** 0,000 Reject H0 -0,074 -4,066*** 0,000 Reject H0 10 -0,095 -4,856*** 0,000 Reject H0 11 -0,095 -4,251*** 0,000 Reject H0 12 -0,090 -3,998*** 0,000 Reject H0 13 -0,094 -4,238*** 0,000 Reject H0 14 -0,083 -3,778*** 0,001 Reject H0 15 -0,070 -3,415*** 0,002 Reject H0