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MINISTRYOFEDUCATIONANDTRAINING THESTATEBANKOFVIETNAMHOCHIMINHUNIVERSITYOFBA NKING NGUYEN XUANDUNG ASYMMETRICIMPACTOFPUBLICDEBTONECONOMICGR OWTH–EMPIRICALEVIDENCE FROMVIETNAM DOCTORALDISSERTATIONOF FINANCEANDBANKING HOCHI MINHCITY-2023 1- MINISTRYOFEDUCATIONANDTRAINING THESTATEBANKOFVIETNAMHOCHIMINHUNIVERSITYOFBA NKING NGUYEN XUANDUNG ASYMMETRICIMPACTOFPUBLICDEBTONECONOMICGR OWTH-EMPIRICALEVIDENCE FROMVIETNAM DOCTORALDISSERTATIONOF FINANCEANDBANKING Major:Finance BankingCODE:9 PhD.Supervisor:Assoc.Prof.,Dr.NguyenDucTrung HOCHI MINHCITY-2023 DECLARATIONOFORIGINALITY I am Nguyen Xuan Dung, PhD student of Course 23, Academic Year 2019 2022, hereby declare that the research work is entirely my own original work underthe guidance and supervision of Assoc Prof., Dr.Nguyen Duc Trung I affirm thatthis work has not been previously submitted to any other institution or organizationfor any academic or professional qualification I acknowledge and properly cite allthe sources used in this work, ensuring that all information, data, and materials areaccurate, reliable, and appropriately referenced I take full responsibility for theauthenticity,originality,and integrityof thecontent presentedinthis work HoChiMinhCity,daym o n t h y e a r Author ACKNOWLEDGMENT Iwouldliketoexpressmydeepestgratitudetotheindividualsa n d institutions who have played a crucial role in the completion of this doctoral thesis.First and foremost, my sincere appreciation goes to my esteemed supervisor, Assoc.Prof., Dr.Nguyen Duc Trung, for his unwavering guidance, exceptional mentorship,and valuable insights throughout this research journey His expertise and dedicationhavebeeninvaluableinshapingthetrajectoryandqualityofthisstudy I am immensely grateful to the members of my doctoral committee for theirinvaluable feedback, constructive criticism, and rigorous evaluation Their scholarlycontributionshavesignificantlyenhancedtheintellectualrigorandacademicmeritof this thesis I would like to extend my heartfelt thanks to the faculty and staff ofPostgraduate Education of Ho Chi Minh University of Banking for providing aconduciveacademicenvironment,accesstoresources,andopportunitiesforintellectual growth.Theirsupporthasbeeninstrumentalinthes u c c e s s f u l completion of thisresearch Lastly, I wish to acknowledge the contributions of the countless researchers,scholars,andauthorswhoseworkshavepavedthewayforthisstudy.Theirgro undbreaking research and seminal publications have provided foundationuponwhichthisthesisisbuilt HoChiMinhCity,daym o n t h y e a r Author the SUMMARYOFTHESIS The thesis explores the relationship between fiscal policy, public debt, andeconomic growth in the context of Vietnam It delves into the different approachestofiscalpolicyadoptedbydevelopedanddevelopingnations,highlightingco untercyclicalpoliciesindevelopedcountriesandprocyclicalpoliciesindeveloping nations The primary aim of the study is to assess the impact of publicdebt on economic growth in Vietnam, analyzing the determinants of fiscal policyandtheir influence on economicoutcomes Using quarterly data from 2000 to 2021, the researchers employ regressionmodels to examine the effects of fiscal policy decisions on Vietnam's economicperformance.Thestudy'ssignificanceliesinitsapplicationoftheoreticalfoundatio ns to the specific context of Vietnam, providing empirical evidence toinform policy development related to public debt management The study yieldsseveral noteworthy results First, it confirms the prevailing pattern of procyclicalfiscal policy in Vietnam, with increased government spending during economicupswingsandreducedspendingduringdownturns.Thiscyclicalitycanposecha llengestosustainableeconomicgrowth,asfiscalpolicyisnoteffectivelycounteractingec onomicfluctuations.Second,theanalysisrevealsanonlinearrelationshipbetweenpublicdebtandeconomicgrowthinVietnam.Whileamoderat e level of debt can be conducive to economic expansion, excessively highlevels of debt can hamper growth and stability Therefore, it is crucial to identify thethresholdatwhichincreasingdebtlevelsbecomedetrimentaltoeconomicperformance Third, the study uncovers specific determinants of fiscal policy thatsignificantly influence economic outcomes in Vietnam These determinants includegovernmentrevenue,expenditure,andborrowing.Thefindingssuggestthatpolic ymakersshouldfocusonoptimizingthesefactorstoachievesustainableeconomicgrowth andprudentdebtmanagement Buildingo n t h e s e r e s u l t s , t h e c o n t e n t p r o p o s e s n e w a v e n u e s f o r r e s e a r c h One potential area of investigation is the exploration of alternative fiscal policyframeworksthatcouldbetteralignwithVietnam'seconomiccontext.Forexa mple, the study suggests examining the feasibility and effectiveness of adopting a morecountercyclicalfiscalpolicyapproachinVietnamtomitigatethenegativei mpactsofeconomicfluctuationsandpromotestability.Furthermore,thec o n t e n t em phasizestheimportanceofassessingthequalityandcompositionofpublicexpenditure.Itsugge stsinvestigatingtheallocationofgovernmentspendinginsectorssuchasinfrastructure,educ ation,andhealthcare,toensurethatpublicresources are utilized efficiently and effectively Such research could shed light onthe areas where targeted investments can yield the greatest economic returns andlong-term development benefits In terms of policy recommendations, the studyhighlights the need for prudent debt management in Vietnam It emphasizes theimportance of implementing fiscal reforms that aim to maintain a sustainable debt-to-GDP ratio This can be achieved through measures such as enhancing revenuecollection, improving expenditure efficiency, and exploring innovative financingmechanisms Additionally, the study underscores the significance of strengthening fiscalinstitutionsandgovernanceframeworks.Transparentandaccountablepublicfinan cial management systems can help minimize the risks associated with publicdebt accumulation, ensure effective utilization of resources, and enhance investorconfidence in Vietnam's economy The study also suggests the establishment of acomprehensive debt monitoring mechanism to regularly assess and manage publicdebtlevels.Thismechanismshouldconsiderbothquantitativeandqualitativefacto rs,takingintoaccountthepotentialrisksandimplicationsofd e b t accumulationon economic stability and growth Inconclusion,thethesisprovidesdetailedinsightsintotherelationshipbetween fiscal policy, public debt, and economic growth in Vietnam It highlightsthe importance of adopting appropriate fiscal policy frameworks, managing publicdebtprudently,andoptimizinggovernmentexpendituretoachievesustainableeco nomicdevelopment.Thestudy'sresults,alongwiththeproposedareasf o r furtherresearc handpolicyrecommendations,offervaluableguidanceforpolicymakersi n V i e t n a m a s t h e y n a v i g a t e t h e c o m p l e x d y n a m i c s o f f i s c a l p o l i c y anddebtmanagement TABLEOFCONTENT CHAPTER1:INTRODUCTIONOF THERESEARCH .1 1.1 THERATIONALEOFRESEARCH 1.2 RESEARCHOBJECTIVES 1.3 OBJECTS,SCOPEANDMETHODOLOGYOFTHERESEARCH .7 1.4 THESIGNIFICANEANDCONTRIBUTIONSOFTHERESEARCH .8 1.5 RESEARCHCONTENTS CHAPTER2:THEORIESANDLITERATUREREVIEW 11 2.1 THEORIESOFFISCALPOLICYANDBUSINESSCYCLE 11 2.1.1 Conceptsrelevanttotheresearchproblems .11 2.1.2 Theoriesof FiscalPolicyandBusiness Cycle 13 2.2 THEORETICALOFPUBLICDEBTANDECONOMICGROWTH 16 2.2.1 Theoriesof Publicdebt 16 2.2.2 Classicaltheoriesofpublic debtand economicgrowth 17 2.2.3 Neoclassicaltheoriesofpublicdebt and economicgrowth 21 2.2.4 Modernmonetarypolicyontherelationshipbetweenpublicdebtandeconomicgr owth 24 2.2.5 Theoriesofthelinearimpactofpublicdebtoneconomicgrowth 26 2.2.6 Theoriesofnonlineareffectsofpublicdebtoneconomicgrowth 29 2.3 RELEVANT EMPIRICAL STUDIES ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEENFISCALPOLICYANDTHEBUSINESSCYCLE 30 2.3.1 Literaturereviewof procyclicalfiscalpolicy 30 2.3.2 Literaturereviewofthecountercyclicalfiscalpolicy 39 2.3.3 Literaturereviewofrepresentativevariablesforthe economiccycleand fiscalpolicy 41 2.4 LITERATURE REVIEW BETWEEN PUBLIC DEBT AND ECONOMICGROWTH .43 2.4.1 Literaturereviewofthenegativeimpact ofpublicdebtoneconomic growth 43 2.4.2 Literaturereviewofthepositiveimpact ofpublicdebtoneconomic growth 48 2.4.3 Literaturereviewoftheneutraleffectofpublicdebt oneconomicgrowth 51 2.4.4 Literaturereviewofnonlineareffectsof publicdebt oneconomicgrowth .52 2.5 THEBASISOFDESIGNINGEMPIRICALRESEARCHMODEL .65 CHAPTER3:RESEARCHMETHODOLOGY 71 3.1 RESEARCHMODEL 71 3.1.1 VECMmodel 71 3.1.2 NARDLmodel 75 3.2 VARIABLESDESCRIPTIONSOFTHERESEARCHMODEL 79 3.2.1 Thevariablesofthemodeloftherelationshipbetweenfiscalpolicyand thebusinesscycle 79 3.2.2 Thevariablesofthemodelofpublic debt oneconomicgrowth .80 3.3 RESEARCHDATA .80 3.3.1 Researchdataof themodeloftherelationshipbetweenfiscalpolicyand thebusinesscycle 80 3.3.2 Researchdataofthemodelofpublicdebtoneconomicgrowth 82 CHAPTER4:RESEARCHRESULTSANDDISCUSSION 84 4.1 EXAMININGTHERELATIONSHIPBETWEENFISCALPOLICYAND THEBUSINESSCYCLE 84 4.1.1 Testsofthe researchmodel .84 4.1.2 Resultsoftestingtherelationshipbetweenfiscalpolicyandeconomic growth 88 4.2 EXAMININGT H E I M P A C T O F P U B L I C D E B T O N E C O N O M I C GROWTH 92 4.2.1 Testsofthe researchmodel .92 4.2.2 Researchresults 98 CHAPTER5:CONCLUSIONANDPOLICYIMPLICATIONS .107 5.1 CONCLUSION 107 5.2 POLICYIMPLICATIONS 109 5.3 LIMITATIONSOFTHERESEARCH 113 SUMMARY 114 REFERENCES 115 APPENDIXEXAMININGTHERELATIONSHIPBETWEENFISCAL POLICYAND THEBUSINESSCYCLE 135 APPENDIX1:STATIONARYTESTOFDATASERIES 135 APPENDIX2:COINTERGRATIONTEST 143 APPENDIX3:CAUSALITYTEST .144 APPENDIX4:LAGORDERSELECTIONCRITERIA 145 APPENDIX5:THESTABILITYTESTOFTHEMODEL 146 APPENDIX6:THEVECM 148 APPENDIX7:IMPULSERESPONSEFUNCTION .149 APPENDIX8:VARIANCEDECOMPOSTION 150 APPENDIXEXAMININGTHEIMPACT OFPUBLICDEBT ON ECONOMICGROWTH 151 APPENDIX1:UNITROOTTEST .151 APPENDIX2:DATADESCRIPTION 161 APPENDIX3:THEECRTEST 162 APPENDIX4:THENARDLMODEL 163 APPENDIX5:THEBREUSCHTEST 164 APPENDIX6:THELONGRUNANDBOUNDSTEST 165 APPENDIX7:THERAMSEYTEST 166 APPENDIX8:THEWALDTEST 167 APPENDIX9:PLOTOFCUMULATIVESUMOFRESIDUALSCUSUM .168 APPENDIX 10: PLOT OF THE CUMULATIVE SUM OF SQUARES OFRECURSIVERESIDUALS(CUSUMSQ) 169 APPENDIX 11: PLOT OF ASYMMETRIC CUMULATIVE DYNAMICMULTIPLIER 170
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