ECONOMIC CHANGE AND MILITARY CONFLICT FROM 1500 TO 2000 THERM: ANDE4LL TV G R E A T Tai Lieu Chat Luong FPT $24.95 l s Y it that throughout history / some nations gain power while others lose it? This question is ^HT^HF y °f historical interest, but also important for underW W standing today's world as the • • new century dawns, for just as the great empires of the past flourished and fell, will today's—and tomorrow's—empires rise and fell as well In this wide-ranging analysis of global politics over the past five centuries, Ydle historian Paul Kennedy focuses on the critical relationship of economic to military power as it affects the rise and fell of empires Nations project their military power according to their economic resources and in defense of their broad economic interests But, Kennedy argues, the cost of projecting that mili tary power is more than even the largest econo mies can afford indefinitely, especially when new technologies and new centers of production shift economic power away from established Great Powers—hence the rise and fell of nations Professor Kennedy begins this story around the year 1500, when a combination of economic and military-technological breakthroughs so strength ened the nation-states of Europe that soon they prevailed over the great empires of the East; but European dynastic and religious rivalries, along with new technologies, made it impossible for any single power to dominate the continent From the campaigns of Emperor Charles V to the struggles against Napoleonic France, victory repeatedly went to the economically strong side, while states that were militarily top heavy usually crashed to eventual defeat This is a pattern, Professor Kennedy shows, that also applied in the two world wars of the present century, where superior eco nomic and technological resources twice defeated the German war machine In what will probably be the most widely dis cussed part of this book, Professor Kennedy devotes his closing chapters to an analysis of Great Power politics since 1945 through the year 2000 Here, too, his focus is not only on the military abilities and policies of the leading states, but also ^^^T A ^^^J^^Lf n o t (continued on back flap) o n r (continued from front flap) on those profound shifts in the world's productive balances that—as in the Renaissance—cause cer tain Great Powers to rise as others fall Professor Kennedy's discussion of the implications of these changes for the United States, the Soviet Union, the countries of western Europe, and the emerging Asian powers of China and Japan makes this one of the most important political studies of recent time Both for the policy maker and the general public, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers transcends its historical scholarship Educated at the universities of Newcastle, Oxford, and Bonn, PAUL KENNEDY is now Dilworth Pro fessor of History at Yale University, where he teaches modern international and strategic history A former research assistant to Sir Basil Liddell Hart, he has written and edited ten books on sub jects such as naval history, imperialism, AngloGerman relations, strategy, and diplomacy A visiting fellow and guest lecturer at many universi ties, he reviews widely in daily and weekly jour nals as well as for professional magazines Paul Kennedy is married, has three children, and lives in Hamden, Connecticut Jacket design: Bob Silverman Jacket art: Van Howell Random House, Inc., New York, NY 10022 Printed in U.S.A 1/88 © 1988 Random House, Inc From T H E R I S E A N D FALL T&GREATPOWERS "Although the United States is at present still in a class of its own economically and perhaps even militarily, it cannot avoid confronting the two great tests which challenge the longevity of every major power that occupies the 'number one' position in world affairs: whether, in the military/strategical realm, it can preserve a reasonable balance between the nation's perceived defense requirements and the means it possesses to maintain those commitments; and whether, as an intimately related point, it can preserve the technological and economic bases of its power from relative erosion in the face of the ever-shift ing patterns of global production This test of American abili ties will be the greater because it, like imperial Spain around 1600 or the British Empire around 1900, is the inheritor of a vast array of strategical commitments which had been made decades earlier, when the nation's political, economic, and mili tary capacity to influence world affairs seemed so much more assured In consequence, the United States now runs the risk, so familiar to historians of the rise and fall of previous Great Powers, of what might roughly be called imperial overstretch': that is to say, decision makers in Washing ton must face the awkward and enduring fact that the sum total of the United States' global interests and obligations is nowadays far larger than the country's power to defend them all simultaneously." 49 n M 780394 546742 ISBN 0-3T4-5Mb7M-l The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers ALSO BY PAUL KENNEDY Pacific Onslaught 1941-1943 Pacific Victory 1943-1945 The Samoan Tangle The Rise and Fall of British Naval Mastery The Realities Behind Diplomacy The Rise of the Anglo-German Antagonism 1860-1914 Strategy and Diplomacy 1860-1945 THE RISE A N D FALL OF THE G R E A T POWERS Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 0 BY PAUL KENNEDY Random House New York Copyright © 1987 by Paul Kennedy All rights reserved under International and Pan-American Copyright Conventions Published in the United States by Random House, Inc., New York Grateful acknowledgment is made to the following for permission to reprint previously published material: Lexington Books, D C Heath and Company: An illustration from American Defense Annual 1987-1988, edited by Joseph Kruzel Copyright © 1987, D C Heath and Company (Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books, D C Heath and Company) Reprinted by permission of the publisher Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Kennedy, Paul M., 1945The rise and fall of the great powers Includes index History, Modern Economic history Military history, Modern Armaments—Economic aspects Balance of power I Title D210.K46 1988 909.82 87-9690 ISBN 0-394-54674-1 Book design by Charlotte Staub Maps by Jean Paul Tremblay Manufactured in the United States of America 89 To Cath 664 B-l bomber, 442, 523 B-17 bomber, 331, 442 B-29 bomber, 358 B-36 bomber, 358 Babur, King of Kabul, 9, 10 Bacon, Francis, 35 Baghdad Pact (1955), 389, 391 Baghdad Railway, 213, 231 Bairoch, P., 148-49, 201, 215, 222, 413-14, 415, 425, 432 Baldwin, Stanley, 315, 318, 337 Balfour, Michael, 432-33 Balfour Declaration (1926), 315 Balkan crisis (1908-1909), 253 Balkan League, 253 Balkans, 221-22, 308, 319 Bandung conference (1955), 392 banking crisis of 1907, 245-46 Bank of England, 80, 123, 282, 314 Bank of France, 132, 310 Bank of Italy, 297 Barnett, Correlli, 202, 367 Bartlett, C J., 379 Baruch Plan (1946), 387 Bavarian Succession, War of, 119 Bayer corporation, 211 Bazaine, Achille, 186 Begin, Menachem, 411 Belgium, 257, 314, 353 Belize, 482 Benedek, Ludwig August von, 186 Beria, Lavrenty, 370 Berkeley, George, 81-82 Berlin blockade (1948-1949), 378 Berlin Wall, 379, 384 Berlin Wall crisis (1961), 390 Berlin West Africa Conference, 194, 246, 287 Béthune, Maximilien de, Duc de Sully, 57 bipolar world: in Carter/Reagan period, 409-13 determining forces in, 197-98 ideology in, 371-72 Kissinger and, 408, 411 middle powers in, 365-69 military power shifts and, 538-39 nuclear weapons in, 369-70 Sino-American rapprochement and, 408-9 Sino-Soviet split in, 397-400, 402, 412 western camp fissures and, 400-403 Bismark, Otto von, 161, 166, 185-87, 189-91, 193, 206, 211, 213, 221, 371, 540 fixed military alliances established by, 249-50 Bison bomber, 387 Blum, Léon, 311, 312 Boeing, 463 Boer War, 249, 250, 406 Bohemia, 32, 33, 39 Bolsheviks, 236, 272, 277, 281, 284, 285, 286, 292, 321 Bonaparte, Joseph, 136 Borneo, 302, 343 Brandt, Willy, 399, 402, 479 Brazil, 40, 76, 415 INDEX Brest-Litovsk, Treaty of (1918), 272 Bretton Woods system, 434 Brezhnev, Leonid, 399 Brezhnev Doctrine, 379 Briand, Aristide, 278 British Defence White Paper (1985), 507-8 Brunei, 482 Brussels Treaty (1948), 377 Brzezinski, Zbigniew, 410 Bukharin, Nikolay, 492 Bulgaria, 273, 361 Bulow, Bernhard, 211, 213, 252 Burma, 353, 390, 394 Burma Army, 354 Calleo, D., 215, 435 Cambodia (Kampuchea), 394, 400 Cambrai, Treaty of (1529), 36 Camp David agreement (1978), 409-10 Campo Formio, Peace of (1797), 123 Canada, 93, 97, 111, 114, 226, 235, 279, 378, 389, 441 cannons, 22-25 Carlsbad Decrees (1819), 163 Carnegie, Andrew, 243 Carter, Jimmy, 409-10, 411, 412 "Carthaginian peace" (1919), 285 Castlereagh, Robert Stewart, Lord, 139 Cateau-Cambrésis, Treaty of (1559), 37, 47 Catherine the Great, Czarina of Russia, 94, 95, 115, 117, 119, 122, 236 Catholic League, 38, 39 cavalry, 44 Central Intelligence Agency, see CIA Central Treaty Organization (CENTO), 389 Ceylon, 40 Chad, 519 Chamberlain, Austen, 278 Chamberlain, Joseph, 196, 229, 250 Chamberlain, Neville, 283-84, 292, 315, 318, 319, 320, 337 Charlemagne, 17, 32 Charles I, King of England, 63 Charles II, King of England, 100 Charles V, Holy Roman Emperor, 21, 33, 35-37, 41, 46, 47, 49, 52, 54-55 Charles VI, Holy Roman Emperor, 105, 108-9 Charles X, King of Sweden, 66 Charles XI, King of Sweden, 66 Charles XII, King of Sweden, 106-7 Chassepot rifle, 185, 186 Chaumont, Treaty of (1814), 137 Cheng Ho, 6-7, 24 Chernobyl nuclear power plant disaster, 494 Chesterton, G K., 530 Chiang Kai-shek, 302, 381, 383, 397 Chile, 407 China: deindustrialization in, 148 interwar nationalism in, 287 Japanese invasion of, 301-3 INDEX Open Door policy and, 246-47 in World War II, 350 China, Ming, 4-9, 23 China, People's Republic of, 381, 383, 447-58 agricultural production in, 451-52 Asian Communism and, 403-4 Cultural Revolution in, 399, 403, 419, 453-54 economic growth in, 418-20, 451-55 "encirclement" of, 447 foreign trade and investment in, 454, 455-56 "four modernizations" in, 454, 456 GNP of, 448, 453 industrial takeoff in, 419-20 international status of, 456-58 Japan and, 469-70 manufacturing in, 451, 452-53 military power of, 399, 448, 449-51 military spending in, 454 navy of, 449, 450 as nuclear power, 398-99, 449-50, 505-7 peace strategy in, 456 People's Liberation Army (PLA) in, 449, 450, 451 population of, 448, 452 recent reforms in, 448-49 savings and investment in, 453 Soviet relations with, 447, 509-10 Soviet split with, 397-400, 402, 407-8, 412, 419 superpower intervention and, 456-57 U.S rapprochement with, 408-9, 456-57 in Vietnam War, 400, 403-4, 407 Choiseul, Etienne-Franỗois de, 113, 115-16, 117 Christian IV, King of Denmark, 39 Churchill, John, Duke of Marlborough, 87-88, 98, 104 Churchill, Winston, 88, 292, 318, 326, 359, 365, 367, 373, 388 "Iron Curtain" speech by, 371, 377 in World War II, 341, 342, 343, 347, 354 CIA (Central Intelligence Agency), 407, 409, 421, 432, 494, 498, 500 Civil War, U.S., xviii, 144, 178-82 Confederate finances in, 181 as first industrialized "total war," 180 national resources transformed in, 179-80 Northern advantages in, 180-82 Clemenceau, Georges, 270, 284 Cobden, Richard, 152 Colbert, Jean-Baptiste, 58, 101 Cold War, 360, 364, 371, 372, 373 arms race in, 383-89 containment policy in, 376, 380-81, 382, 389 European bifurcation in, 374-75 German issues in, 377-78 Khrushchev and, 390-91 lateral escalation of, 379-82 665 Reagan and, 410-11 Sino-American rapprochement and, 408-9 Third World in, 390-95, 396 Colt, 243 Columbian era, 25 Comecon (Council of Mutual Economic Assistance), 377 Cominform, 377, 389, 390, 393 Committee of Imperial Defence, British, 329 Common Market, 423, 424, 427, 428 Communism, 318, 372 Communist International, 371 Communist Party, Chinese, 397, 419 Communist Party, French, 366 Communist Party, German, 374, 375 Communist Party, Greek, 375 Communist Party, Indian, 394 Communist Party, Indonesian, 394 Communist Party, Iraqi, 394 Communist Party, Italian, 374, 375 Congo, 194, 219, 394, 397 Congress of Berlin (1878), 190 Conrad von Hôtzendorf, Count Franz, 217, 218, 219 containment policy, 376, 380-81, 382, 389 Cordoba, Gonzalo de, 44 Cornwallis, Charles, Lord, 118 Council of Mutual Economic Assistance (Comecon), 377 Counter-Reformation, 29, 32, 35, 49, 53, 61 Crédit Mobilier, 175 Crimean War, xviii, xxii, 144, 153, 162, 169, 170-77, 233, 406 logistical problems in, 174 military expenditures in, 176-77 political aftermath of, 182-83 Croats, 217 Cromwell, Thomas, 60, 62-63, 71 cruise missiles, 396 Cuba, 27, 391, 396, 397, 512, 516 Cuban missile crisis (1962), 384, 386, 390-91, 394, 395 Cyprus, 10, 394, 482 Czechoslovakia, 275, 277, 289, 308, 314, 318, 326, 338-39, 361, 364, 391 1968 revolt in, 379, 402 Darby, Abraham, Dawes Plan (1924), 278, 281 decolonization, 393 Defense Department, U.S., 417, 462, 517-18, 523-24 defense manufacturers, 442-43 de Gaulle, Charles, 313, 366, 427, 434 U.S hegemony and, 400-402 Dehio, L., 107, 318 Delcassé, Théophile, 216, 224, 252 Deng Xiaoping, 448, 449, 452, 454, 456, 470 Denmark, 340, 353 DePorte, A., 357 de Ruyter, Michiel, 87, 101 Destour Party, 286 666 détente policy, 384, 390-91, 398, 399 economic, 402, 403 Reagan and, 410 Dewoitine 520 fighter aircraft, 312 dialectical materialism, 397 Diego Garcia, 397 diplomatic revolution (1756), 111 diplomatic revolution (1904-1905), 252 Disraeli, Benjamin, 184 Doenitz, Karl, 348 dollar, value of, 434-35, 438, 527-28 Dollfuss, Engelbert, 335 Dominican Republic, 246, 407 Doran, C F., 241 Doyle, Michael, xxi Dragimirov, Mikhail, 194 Dreadnought-type battleships, 247, 370 Dual Alliance, 250, 251, 257 Dulles, John Foster, 382, 383, 387, 401 Dunkirk Treaty (1947), 377 Du Pont, 243 Eastern Crisis of 1876-1878, 190 East India Company, 13, 148 East Indies, Dutch, 302, 303, 343 economic growth, uneven, 416, 436-37, 439 economic statistics, 145, 413 Economist, The, 455, 458, 462-63, 480, 506, 513 Eden, Anthony, 338 EEC, see European Economic Community Egypt, 10, 124-25, 219, 286, 316, 391, 394, 397, 409-10 Eighty Years War, 36, 50 Eisenhower, Dwight D., 348, 372, 384, 387, 532 Eisenhower Doctrine, 389 Elizabeth, Czarina of Russia, 111, 114 Elizabeth I, Queen of England, 38, 61, 62 Empires (Doyle), xxi Estonia, 275, 361 Ethiopia (Abyssinia), 287, 292, 293, 296-97, 313, 336, 341, 396, 397, 512 Eurodollars, 434, 527 Euro-fighters, 482 Europe, early-modern, 16-30 armaments spiral in, 22 commerce and trade in, 19-20, 28-29 decentralization of, 17-22 financial revolution in, 76-86 government expenditures in, 71-72 military manpower in, 56 military power in, 20-22, 70-71 military revolution in, 45 military spending in, 71-72 multipolar system in, 73-74 nation-states in, 70-71 overseas expansion of, 24-29 political plurality of, 17, 30, 31 regional vs continental conflicts in, 31, 32 scientific and technological advancement in, 29 variegated geography of, 17, 19 INDEX see also Habsburg Empire; specific countries Europe, modern: defense barrier provided for, 422 definitions of, 420 after German unification, 187-89 internationalized political problems in, 160 interwar rearmament of, 295-96 post-World War I relations in, 275-78, 284-86 post-World War II conditions in, 368-69 post-World War II economic growth in, 420-29 trade in, 422 see also specific countries European Economic Community (EEC), 401, 403, 424, 519 disputes in, 428 economic size of, 429 Japan and, 460-61 as trading unit, xx European Economic Community (EEC) member countries, 471-88 agricultural production in, 473-74, 476 economic integration of, 473-74 GNP of, 472, 474 high technology in, 474-75 military power of, 472-73 population of, 472 potential power of, 471-72 stagnation in, 474-75 unemployment in, 474 Evangelical Union, 39 Exxon, 433 factory system, 145, 146-47 Falkenhayn, Erich von, 260, 261 Falkland Islands, 116, 155, 482 Farrar, L L., 215 fascism, 285-86 Fashoda incident (1898-1899), 195 Federal Reserve, U.S., 282 Ferdinand, Archduke of Austria, 253 Ferdinand, King of Spain, 32, 160 Ferdinand I, Holy Roman Emperor, 33, 37, 39, 49 FIAT, 423 Fiat CR42 biplane, 294 Fiat L.3 tank, 295 financial revolution of seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, 76-86 banking system in, 76-77 public credit in, 80 United Provinces in, 78 wars and, 77-78, 85-86 Finland, 275, 321, 326, 353, 361, 373, 379, 389, 390 firearms technology, 20-21 firepower revolution, 150 First Coalition, War of, 121-23 flintlock rifle, 75 Ford, Gerald R., 409 Ford, Henry, 221 Foreman-Peck, J A., 415 Four-Power Control Council, 377 INDEX France: agricultural production in, 131, 484 air force of, 312 in American Revolution, 84, 116-19 armaments production in, - 6 British colonial clashes with, - British détente with, 107 as classic hybrid power, 169 commercial development in, 83 competitiveness problems in, 168-69 Continental System in, 129-30, 131, 134, 135 in Crimean War, 175, 176-77 under de Gaulle, 400-403 early maritime power of, 89 e c o n o m i c conservatism in, 131-32 e c o n o m i c expansion in, 220-23 e c o n o m i c weakness of, 83-85 as European leader, 428 financial system in, 79-80, - First Coalition against, 121-23 foreign investments of, 2 - 2 franc devaluations in, 310-11 geopolitics of, 8 - German resurgence feared by, 277, 288-89, 334-35 in German unification wars, 186-87 Great Depression in, 310-11 Habsburgs and, 33, - , 47, 58-59, 90-91 imperial policy of, - Industrial Revolution in, 168-69 interwar period in, 277-78, 310-15, 334-37 isolation of, 188-89 military spending in, 311-12, 486 military weaknesses in, 313 Napoleonic overstretch in, 135-36 national bankruptcy in, 84-85 national debt of, 57-58 navy of, 220 "New Atlanticism" of, 486 in nineteenth century, 166-69 in Nine Years War, 102-3 as nuclear power, 401, 484-87, 505-7 patriotic revival in, 2 - in Piedmont conflict, 183 plundering by, 132-33 Popular Front government in, 311 post-World War II e c o n o m i c growth in, 422, 427-28 post-World War II reconstruction in, 366 public morale in, 312-13 recovery period in, 167-69 social divisions in, 312-13, 427-28 Socialist government in, 484 Soviet Union and, 485-86 strategical fragmentation in, - successor states and, 289 taxes in, 57, 58-59, 82 United Provinces and, 101-2 U.S h e g e m o n y and, 400-403 Valois kings of, 33 "waiting for Britain" strategy in, 314-15 in War of Spanish Succession, 104-6 667 war ministry of, 75 west-central Europe dominated by, 74 West Germany and, - , - in World War I, 257, 262, 265-66, 273-74 Francis I, King of France, - Francis Joseph, Emperor of Austria-Hungary, 183, 216, 217 Franco-Austrian War (1859), 144 Franco-Prussian War, xviii, 186-87 Franco-Russian pact (1935), 314 Frederick IV, Elector, 39 Frederick the Great, 85, 91, 92, 94, 98, 110, 111, 113, 114 Frederick William I, 91 Frederick William III, 92, 161 Frederick William IV, 161, 162, 170, 182 Free French, 366 French Plan XVII, 254, 261, 267 French Revolution, 90, 119, 121-22, 131, 159, 164, 172 Fujitsu, 462 Fulbright, William, 406 Gaddis, J L., 407 Gama, Vasco da, 25, 26 Gamelin, Gustave-Maurice, 313 Gandhi, Mohandas K., 286 Gatling gun, 150 Geer, Louis de, 64 General Agreement o n Tariffs and Trade (GATT), 360 General Motors, 433, 442 geopolitics, 86-100, 197 George I, King of England, 106 George III, King of England, 115, 116 German Customs Union (Zollverein), 161, 164 German Navy League, 211 German unification wars, 144, 182-91 Germany, Democratic Republic of (East Germany), 379, 402, 426, 509 West Germany and, - Germany, early-modern: Charles V and, 33, 37 religious divisions in, 39 Swedish role in, 40, - 6 Germany, Federal Republic of (West Germany), 379, 385, 399 big business in, - détente policy of, - East Germany and, - e c o n o m i c growth in, 422, - France and, - , - industrial production in, 426 international status of, - military power of, 479 trade surplus of, - u n e m p l o y m e n t in, 476 Germany, Imperial, xix, 187-88 agricultural production in, 270, 272 e c o n o m i c growth in, expansionism of, 1 - geographic disadvantages of, 2 - Great Power status of, 209-10, 214-15 Hindenburg Program in, - industrialization in, 187, 210-11 668 Germany (continued) military buildup in, 212-13 navy of, 212, 213-14 overseas trade in, 259 "special path" view of, 214 wartime economy of, 269-70 in World War I, 257, 260-62, 268-74 Germany, Nazi: Anglo-French perceptions of, 334-36 armaments production in, 353-57 Czechoslovakia invaded by, 308-9 economic instability in, 306-7, 340 military spending in, 304-7 military strength of, 307-8 nationalist continuity in, 304, 309 operational strengths of, 340, 352 as overstretched, 352-53 raw material supplies for, 307, 341 rearmament in, 304-9 Soviet Union invaded by, 341-42, 348-49 strategical errors of, 349-50, 352 see also Hitler, Adolf Germany, occupied, 374-75 Germany, Weimar: demilitarization in, 275-76 in international power balance, 288-89 reparation payments in, 275, 277, 278, 281, 283 revisionism in, 288, 304 Gerschrenkon, A., 204 Ghana, 391 Gibraltar, 104-5, 116, 118, 482 Gilbert, Felix, 249 Gladstone, William, 192, 284, 371 global economy: Britain's nineteenth-century role in, 157-58 after 1860, 192-93 merchant vs warrior states in, 445-46 militarization of, 443-44 nineteenth-century growth of, 143 Pacific region in, 441-42 post-World War I instability in, 280-82 technology transfers in, 198 trading states in, 445 uneven growth in, 416, 438-40 U.S deficits and, 527-28 U.S role in, 329-30, 357-58 see also manufacturing output, world Glorious Revolution, 97, 103 Gneisenau, August von, 139 Goering, Hermann, 306 gold standard, 281, 316 gold supply, 245, 434 Gorbachev, Mikhail, 489-90, 494, 498, 499 Gorchakov, Aleksandr, 189 Gorschkov, Sergei Georgievich, 386, 387 Great Britain: in American Revolution, 116-19 appeasement diplomacy in, 317-19, 337-39 armaments production in, 229, 267 capital exported from, 156 challenger states and, 226-28 colonial empire of, 155 INDEX "continental commitment" of, 61-62 continental strategy of, 97-98 in Crimean War, 174-77 economic hegemony of, 143, 145, 151-58, 224, 226 export dependency of, 157-58 financial system in, 79-82, 155-58 French colonial clashes with, 219-20 geographic insularity of, 230-31 geopolitics of, 95-100 GNP of (19th century), 146, 152, 153 Great Depression in, 316-17 in "imperial-policing" activities, 316 industrial renaissance in, 481 Industrial Revolution in, 130, 146-47, 151-58 interwar years in, 310, 315-20, 334-38 laissez-faire liberalism in, 152-53, 155, 157, 158 manufacturing decline in, 424-25, 480-81 as mature power, 231-32 mercantilist measures eliminated in, 152-53 military spending in (16th and 17th centuries), 60-61, 62, 63 military spending in (19th century), 152-54 military spending in (current), 482-83 after Napoleon's fall, 138-39 navalist view of, 96-97 naval power of (19th century), 154-55 nineteenth-century growth of, 145, 155 North Sea oil and, 480-81 as nuclear power, 370, 505, 506-7 post-World War I financial policies in, 281-82 post-World War II conditions in, 367-68, 423-25 public credit in, 80-83 R&D in, 481-82 relative economic decline in, 228-30, 425 in Seven Years War, 113-15 "social" question in, 315 strategic posture of, 482 taxation system in, 79-80 Tudor century in, 59-60 United Provinces and, 81, 87-88 U.S independence and, 94 in War of Spanish Succession, 104-6 as world trading center, 151-52, 156-58 in World War I, 257-59, 266-68, 273-74 in World War II, 341-42, 347-48, 352, 354-56 Great Depression, 282-83, 285, 310-11, 316-17, 329, 331-32 Great Illusion, The (Angell), 537 Great Society programs, 406 Greece, 339, 376, 380, 381, 389, 473 Green Party, 480 Grenada, 397, 411, 517, 519 Grey, Sir Edward, 231 Grossman, G., 235 INDEX Guderian, Heinz Wilhelm, 313 Guiana, British, 227 Guinea, 391, 394, 397 gunpowder empires, 20-21, 22 Gustavus Adolphus II, King of Sweden, 40, 63, 64-65, 67, 71 Gyulai, Franz, 183 Habsburg Empire, xvii, 31-56 American revenues for, 43, 45, 48, 49, 50, 53, 55 Castile in, 53-54 European mastery and, 35-36 European status quo position of, 162-63 financial resources of, 43-44, 46-47 France and, 33, 40-41, 47, 58-59, 90-91 geopolitics of, 90-91 in German unification wars, 185-86 Holy Roman emperor status in, 32 independence movements in, 164-65 Industrial Revolution in, 165 insolvency of, 46-48, 52-55 localism in, 52 as marginal first-class power, 91 maritime power of, 46 marriage and inheritance link-ups in, 32-33 material power of, 41, 43 military power of, 44, 56 military revolution in, 36, 45, 56 military spending in, 45-48, 52-53, 165-66 multinational character of, 164-65, 166 in multipolar system, 73-74 Netherlands revolt and, 36, 38-39, 50-53 in nineteenth century, 162-66 Ottoman Empire and, 37-38, 90 Prussia and, 90-91 religious conflict in, 33-34, 37, 39 resource mobilization in, 51—55 scope of, 32 strategic overstretch in, 48-52 taxes in, 52-54 weaknesses of, 46-55 Haig, Alexander, 411 Haig, Douglas, 261, 262, 266, 268 Haiti, 246 Halberstam, David, 465 Haldane, Richard Burdon, Lord, 253 Haider, Franz, 348-49 Hassan II, King of Morocco, 410 Hassner, Pierre, 535 Hay, John, 246-47 Hayashi, Baron, 208 Helsinki Accords (1975), 402 Henry II, King of France, 37 Henry IV, King of France (Henry of Navarre), 38, 57-58 Henry VII, King of England, 59-60 Henry VIII, King of England, 46, 60, 61 Hewins, W.A.S., 228-29, 530 Hideyoshi, Toyotomi, 14 Hindenburg, Paul von, 261 Hindenburg Program (1916), 269-70 Hindu Kush, 227 669 Hindus, 9, 13 Hiroshima, atomic bombing of, 356-57, 370, 387 Hispaniola, 27 Hitachi, 462 Hitler, Adolf, 283, 292 popularity of, 305, 306 "specialness" of, 304-5 Stalin and, 326-27 war incentives for, 308-10 in World War II, 343, 349, 350 Hoare-Laval Pact (1935), 336 Hobsbawm, Eric, 151, 227 Ho Chi Minh, 381, 406 Hoechst corporation, 211 Hollweg, Theodor von Bethmann, 214 Holy League, 106 Hong Kong, 155, 208, 367, 441, 445, 482 Hoover, Herbert, 329, 334 Hornigk, Philip von, xxii hot line communications, 395 Howard, Michael, 187 Hufton, Olwen, 91 Huguenots, 38, 58, 102 Hull, Cordell, 330, 359, 361 human-rights violations, 410 Hundred Years War, 57 Hungary, 32, 33, 275, 361, 373 1848 revolution in, 160, 172 1956 uprising in, 379, 390 Turkish invasion of, 10 see also Austro-Hungarian Empire; Habsburg Empire hydrogen bomb, 370, 387-88 IBM, 442 ICI, 424 ideology, 371-72 IMF (International Monetary Fund), 360, 375, 456 imperialism, 392 India, 9, 13, 279, 280, 316, 382, 398, 400, 403, 447, 450 deindustrialization of, 148-49 Mogul, 20, 23 in nonaligned movement, 393-94 in World War I, 258, 286 in World War II, 347 Indian Congress movement, 286 Indian Mutiny (1857), 177 Indochina, 183, 303, 343, 366, 401 Indonesia, 286, 287, 382, 383, 394, 441, 469 industrialization: in 1890-1938 period, 198-202 energy consumption and, 199, 201 iron and steel output in, 199, 200 military power and, 198, 199 World War I and, 279-80 Industrial Revolution, xviii, 95, 120, 130, 144 British hegemony and, 151-58 in continental Europe, 158-60 deindustrialization and, 148-49 in Middle Powers, 158-69 military and naval technology enhanced by, 144, 150, 183-84, 192 670 Industrial Revolution (continued) non-European countries and, 147-50 obstacles to, 159-60 productivity increases in, 145-47, 148 infantry, 43, 44 Influence of Sea Power upon History, The (Mahan), 96 Institute for International Economics, 465-66 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), 388, 449-50 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 360, 375 International Harvester, 243 International Institute of Strategic Studies, 503 International Monetary Fund (IMF), 360, 375, 456 Iran, 380, 389, 445 Iranian hostage crisis, 410, 516 Iraq, 11, 316, 389, 391, 394, 396, 445 Ireland, 38, 60, 96, 286, 473 Isabella, Queen of Spain, 32 Islam, 9-13, 393, 412, 510 Ismail I, Israel, 389, 391, 393, 396, 409-10, 411, 445, 516 Italian city-states, 21, 22, 23 French attacks on, 36 Habsburg Empire and, 36, 42, 49, 51 military security of, 23 Italy, 203-6 army of, 205 economic retardation in, 204, 293-94 Great Power status of, 204, 206 industrialization in, 204-5, 292, 294 interwar period in, 291-98 manufacturing boom in, 423 military leadership in, 297 military spending in, 292-93, 294-97 navy of, 205-6 post-World War II conditions in, 365-66 post-World War II economic growth in, 422-23 unification of, 203-4 in World War I, 256-57, 263 see also Mussolini, Benito Ivan the Terrible, 16 James II, King of England, 74, 102 Japan, Imperial, 206-9, 280 Allied occupation of, 365 banking system in, 299-300 China invaded by, 301-2 economic expansion of, 298-99 geographic isolation of, 208 government factions in, 301 Great Power status of, 206-8 industrialization in, 207-8, 298-99 interwar period in, 298-303 in Manchuria, 333-34, 350 Meiji transformation of, 206-7 military manpower in, 301 military spending in, 300, 302 modernization of, 206-7 moral forces in, 208-9 INDEX navy of, 300-301, 350, 351 raw materials imported in, 300, 302 strategical errors of, 350, 352, 353 Tokugawa period in, 14-15, 23 under Washington Treaty, 277, 300 Western prejudices toward, 298 in World War I, 256 in World War II, 342-43, 347-48, 350, 352, 354, 355-56 Japan, postwar, 458-71 capital outflow from, 465-66 China and, 469-70 computer industry in, 462, 463 as creditor nation, 465-66 economic growth in, 458-68 EEC relations with, 460-61 energy economies in, 461-62 future economic strength of, 467-68 GNP of, 417, 418, 467 high technology in, 462-63 manufacturing boom in, 417-18 military spending in, 445, 468-69, 470 national savings in, 464 "omnidirectional peaceful diplomacy" in, 458-59, 469, 470-71 overseas assets of, 465-67 R&D in, 463-64 raw materials for, 461-62 "scissors effect" reaction against, 459-60 social ethos in, 417 structural advantages in, 463-65 U.S trade deficits with, 460-61 work force in, 464-65 zaibatsu in, 417 Japanese Aircraft Development Corporation, 463 Jervis, R., 505 Jevons, William, 151-52 Jews, 285, 309, 364, 389 Jodl, Alfred, 352 Johnson, Louis, 382 Johnson, Lyndon B., 404, 405, 406, 434 Joint Chiefs of Staff, U.S., 519, 521, 522 Jones, E L., 24 Jordan, 389 Kahn, Herman, 467 Kampuchea (Cambodia), 394, 400 Kellogg-Briand Treaty, see Paris, Pact of Kemp, T., 204 Kennan, George, 376, 408 Kennedy, John F., 399, 401, 405, 407, 434, 532 Kenya, 397 Kerensky, Aleksandr, 265 Keynes, John Maynard, 367, 368 KGB, 495 Khrushchev, Nikita, 379, 386, 489 détente policy of, 384, 390-91, 398 economic policies of, 430, 431 Third World nations and, 390, 399 Kingsley, Charles, 158 Kissinger, Henry, 407-9, 411, 534 Kondratieff cycles, xxi Konstantin Nikolayevich, Grand Duke, 177 INDEX Korea, 14, 208-9, 300 Korea, North, 361, 382, 521 Korea, South, 389, 416, 441, 469, 521 Korean War, 359, 364 military spending in, 369, 383-85 outbreak of, 382-83 U.S Navy in, 386 Krupp, 238 Kublai Khan, 6, 10 Kutusov, Mikhail, 139 Labor Party, British, 315, 333 La Gloire, 168, 169 Lagos, 155 Landes, D., 146, 147 Laos, 405 Latvia, 275, 361 League of Armed Neutrality, 117 League of Nations, 277, 278, 285, 286, 287, 289, 299, 336 Japanese aggression and, 334 Soviet Union and, 290, 326, 335 Lebanon, 366, 386, 516 Lend-Lease, 87-88, 341, 367 Lenin, V I., 284, 287, 321, 397, 436 Leopold I, Holy Roman Emperor, 90, 102 less-developed countries (LDCs), 415-16 liberalism, 372 Libya, 205, 292, 396, 397 Life, 360 L'Inflexible, 506 Lippmann, Walter, 534 Lisbon Agreement (1952), 385 List, Friedrich, 539 Lithuania, 31, 275, 361 Little Entente (1921), 277, 337 Lloyd George, David, 264, 267, 270, 284, 290 Lloyd, C, 154 Locarno Treaty (1925), 277, 290, 291, 336 Louis, King of Hungary, 33 Louis XIV, King of France, xvii, 58, 73, 75, 87, 90, 91, 108, 121 European ambitions of, 100, 101-2 foreign policy of, 88-89 government debts under, 106 in Nine Years War, 102-3 in War of Spanish Succession, 104, 105, 106 Louis XV, King of France, 116 Louis XVI, King of France, 121 Louis XVIII, King of France, 137 Luce, Henry, 360, 407 Ludendorff, Erich von, 260, 261, 270, 272-73 Lumumba, Patrice, 394 Luther, Martin, 32, 37 Luxembourg, 443 Lynch, J., 44 Lytton Commission, 334 M-4 missile, 506 MacArthur, Douglas, 382-83 McCarthy, Joe, 372, 382 MacDonald, James, 333 Mackensen, August von, 265 671 Mackinder, H J., 196, 364, 537 McKinley, William, 246 Mackintosh, M., 326 Macmillan, Harold, 424 MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction), 395 Magyars, 216, 217 Mahan, A T., 96-97, 247 Malaya, 208, 298, 300, 303, 343, 383 Malaysia, 416, 441, 469 Mali, 391 Mamatey, V S., 37 Manchu dynasty, Manchuria, 300, 324, 326, 333-34, 350, 361 Manifest Destiny, 246, 360 manufacturing output, world: Asian/European shares of, 148-49 British share of, 151 China's share of, 419-20 1880-1938, 202 during Great Depression, 329-30 historical statistics on, 145 during Industrial Revolution, 148-49, 151 post-World War II growth rates in, 413-15 Third World share of, 415-16 U.S share of, 432 World War I and, 279-80 in World War II, 354-55, 358 Mao Tse-tung, 361-62, 375, 383, 389, 390, 397, 419, 447, 449 Soviet relations with, 398-99 Maria Theresa, Empress, 108, 110 Marine Corps, U.S., 331, 358, 523 maritime technology: cannons in, 24-25 colonial rivalry and, 29 galleys in, 25, 46 Industrial Revolution and, 144, 150 long-range sailing vessels in, 25-26 royal navies and, 46 Marlborough, Duke of, see Churchill, John Marshall Plan, 360, 368, 376-77, 401, 421, 422 Marx, Karl, 429 Mason, Tim, 309 Matsu, 398, 403 Maurice of Nassau, 63, 67 Maximilian II, Holy Roman emperor, 32, 37 Maxim machine gun, 150 Mayer, Arno, 284 May Fourth Movement, 286 Mazarin, Jules, 58 Mehmet II, Sultan, 4, 10, 11 Meiji Restoration, 188, 203, 206 Méline tariff (1892), 221 Mercedes automobile company, 426 Metternich, Klemens von, 159, 161, 163-64, 167, 371, 374 Mexico, 26, 27, 178, 246, 271, 517 MiG-15 jet fighter, 363 Military Balance, The, 468 672 military manpower: in early modern Europe, 55, 56 1816-1880, 153-54 1880-1914, 203 military power: eighteenth-century organizational changes and, 75-76 military potential vs., 198 nation-states and, 70-71, 75-76 turn-of-the-century shifts in, 198-99 uneven economic growth and, 439 military revolutions: 1520-1670, 36, 45, 56 mid-nineteenth-century, 191-92 military spending: economic growth and, 444-46 in eighteenth-century wars, 85-86 global economy and, 443-44 on interwar rearmament, 296 in Korean War era, 369, 383-85 in post-World War II period, 369 resources diverted in, 444-45 strategic vs economic security and, 445 by superpowers, 395-96 in Third World, 443 in Vietnam War, 406-7 in World War I, 262, 274 see also specific countries military technology: in 1850s and 1860s, 183-84 in eighteenth century, 75 Industrial Revolution and, 144, 150, 183-84, 192 in interwar period, 291, 295-96 Ming dynasty, see China, Ming Ministry for International Trade and Industry (MITI), Japanese, 417, 460, 462, 463, 465, 475 missile gap, 388 MITI, see Ministry for International Trade and Industry, Japanese Mitsubishi company, 463, 468 Mobutu, Joseph, 394, 410 Mohammed Reza Shah Pahlavi, 410 Molotov, Vyacheslav, 361, 365, 374, 377, 390 Molotov-Ribbentrop pact (1939), 339 Moltke, Count Helmuth von, 184-85, 186-87 Moltke, Helmuth von, 232, 234 monetary system, world, 245-46 Mongols, 4, 6, 7, 9, 12-13, 17, 20, 23 Monnet, Jean, 427 Monroe Doctrine, 178, 246 Montgomery, Bernard, 348 Morgan, J P., 243 Morocco, 224, 252, 253, 366, 410 Mozambique, 397 Mughal Empire, 10 Munich settlement (1938), 291-92, 326 Murray, Gilbert, 211 Muslim fundamentalism, 393, 412, 510 Muslims, 9-13 Mussolini, Benito, 277, 293, 294, 313, 330, 335, 336-37, 340, 365 leadership of, 297-98 modernization under, 292 INDEX muzzle-loading gun, 150 MX missile, 523 Nagasaki, atomic bombing of, 356, 370, 387 Napoleon I, Emperor of France, xvii, 73, 90, 91, 92, 100, 122, 127, 139 "Continental System" of, 129 Egypt invaded by, 124-25 French overstretch under, 135 plundering by, 132-33 in Russia, 136 Spain invaded by, 133, 134 Napoleon III, Emperor of France, 164, 166, 169, 175, 183, 186 Napoleon, 168 Napoleonic War, xxiv, 77, 98, 166, 174 Nasser, Gamal Abdel, 393 National Fascist Party, Italian, 277, 298 National Guard, U.S., 248 National Security Council, U.S., 329, 524 National Security Council Memorandum 68 (1950), 385 National Socialist Party, German, 214, 288 nation-states, 44, 70-71, 75-76, 77, 440 after World War I, 275 NATO, see North Atlantic Treaty Organization Naumann, Friedrich, 211 navalist school of strategy, 96 Navy, U.S., 358, 385-86, 387, 459, 511 "Navy Second to None" Act (1938), 331 Nazi-Soviet pact (1939), 326 Necker, Jacques, 82, 84 Nehru, Jawaharlal, 382, 393 394 Nemesis, 150 neocolonialism, 391 Netherlands, xxiii, 340 Netherlands, Revolt of, 24, 29, 36, 38-39, 50-53, 67-70 New Atlanticism, 486 Newcastle, Duke of (Thomas Pelham-Holles), 98 New Deal, 331, 357 Newfoundland, 28 New Guinea, 348 New Model Army (English), 62-63, 71 new navalism, 250 New World, 43, 46, 47, 48, 49, 52, 54 New York Herald, 246 New York Times, 371, 463 New Zealand, 383, 389, 441, 469 Nicaragua, 246, 397, 516 Nicholas I, Czar of Russia, 161, 166, 170, 172, 371 Nicholas II, Czar of Russia, 240 Nine Years War, 90, 102-3 Nitze, Paul, 382 Nivelle, Robert-Georges, 262, 265, 266, 268 Nixon, Richard, 391, 407, 408, 409, 413, 420, 434 Nomura Research Institute, 466 nonalignment, 392-94 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), 385, 389, 401, 402-3, 428, 443, 473, 476-77 673 INDEX disputes within, 508-9 European forces in, 507-9 founding of, 378 naval strength of, 511 nuclear-deterrence strategy of, 479 "out-of-area" thrust for, 483 U.S forces in, 378-79, 518, 519 Northedge, F S., 268-69 North German Federation, 186 Norway, 340, 353, 378 Nova Scotia, 93 nuclear test-ban treaty (1963), 395 nuclear weapons, xx, 369-70, 385-86, 388 in China, 398-99, 449-50, 505-7 conventional wars and, 537-38 delivery vehicles for, 395-96 in France, 401, 484-87, 505-7 in Great Britain, 370, 505, 506-7 in NATO, 479 proliferation of, 505-6 in Soviet Union, 503-7 superpower stalemate in, 504-5 "surrogate" wars and, 537 see also atomic weapons; hydrogen bomb nuclear winter, 504 Nymegen peace treaties (1678-1679), 102 Nystad, Peace of (1721), 107 Oelmuetz agreement (1850), 161 Ogaden, 394 Ogarkov, N V., 502 oil crisis (1973-1974), 417, 461-62, 474 Olivares, Count-Duke of, 40 Oman, 397 Open Door policy, 246-47 Operation Barbarossa, 342, 352, 371 Opium War, 150 Ottawa Conference (1932), 283 Ottoman Empire, 3-4, 9-13, 29-30, 48-49 Austro-Russian war against, 108 conservatism in, 12 cultural unity in, 10-11 decline of, 11-12 Habsburgs and, 37-38, 90 Italian city-states and, 49 maritime power of, 26 overextension of, 11, 56 territories conquered by, 9-10 Pacific rim countries, xxii, 441-42 Paixhans, Henri-Joseph, 168 Pakistan, 389, 394, 400, 408-9, 447 Palestine, 287, 316, 368 Palestinians, 516, 524 Palmerston, Henry John Temple, Lord, 170, 176, 232 Pan African Congress, 286 Panama Canal, 247, 409 Pan-Arabism, 393 Panay, U.S.S., 337 Pan-German League, 211 Panslavs, 392 Paris, Congress of (1856), 162 Paris, Pact of (1928), 278, 290 Parma, Duke of (Alessandro Farnese), 38, 67 Parsons, W., 241 Paul I, Czar of Russia, 125 Pax Americana, 359, 364, 432 Peleponnesian War, The (Thucydides), 198 Peninsular War, 175, 259 Pentagon Papers, 404 Perry, Matthew C, 15 Pershing II missile, 396, 479 Persia, 9, 11, 12, 250, 379 Peru, 26, 27, 28 Pétain, Philippe, 266, 313 Peter the Great, Czar of Russia, 76, 93, 107 Philip II, King of Spain, 33, 35, 37, 38, 44, 46, 47, 50, 52, 61, 62 Philip III, King of Spain, 41, 58 Philip IV, King of Spain, 33, 40, 41, 51, 52 Philip V, King of Spain, 104 Philippines, 114, 208, 247, 248, 298, 382, 383, 389, 392, 441, 469 Pitt, William, 113, 120, 121, 123, 126, 127, 139 Poincaré, Raymond, 310 Poland, 277, 289 German invasion of, 309 Russia and, 74 Soviet Union and, 373-74 in Warsaw Pact, 509 in World War II, 339, 340 Polaris missile, 386 Pollack, Jonathan, 457-58 Pompidou, Georges, 427 population, world: eighteenth-century surge in, 146 military power and, 198-99 in 1980, 436 urban, 199, 200 Porter, Bernard, 158 Portugal, 25-29, 40 Pravda, 398 Prussia: geopolitics of, 90, 91-92 German question in, 161-62 in German unification wars, 184-87 Habsburgs and, 90-91 Industrial Revolution and, 160 military revolution in, 184-85 military spending in, 85 in nineteenth century, 160-62 officer staff system in, 184-85 power vacuum filled by, 92 rise of, 91-92 in Seven Years War, 113-14, 115 short-service conscript system in, 184, 187 Pugachev revolt, 115 Pyrenees, Treaty of (1659), 31, 35, 41, 59, 74 Qaddafi, Muammar, 397 Quemoy, 398, 401, 403 Raeder, Erich, 305, 307 Ranke, Leopold von, xxiv-xxv 674 Rapid Deployment Joint Task Force, U.S., 522 Rastadt, Treaty of (1714), 105 Rathenau, Walther, 269 Reagan, Ronald, 410-12, 466, 527 defense buildup under, 411, 412, 527 détente and, 410 SDI under, 501 Taiwan and, 410, 413 Reformation, 21, 29, 32, 33, 36, 70 Reinsurance Treaty (1887), 250 Rhine, Confederation of the, 127 Rhodes, Cecil, 392 Richelieu, Cardinal, 39, 40, 58, 59, 71 Rio Pact, 389 Roberts, M., 66 Robertson, William, 268 Rommel, Erwin, 341, 347, 348 Roosevelt, Franklin D., 283, 303, 329-31, 337, 338, 342 Lend-Lease and, 341 "quarantine" speech by, 330-31 Roosevelt, Theodore, 246, 247, 248 Rosecrance, R., 416 Rostow, W W., 414 Royal Air Force (RAF), British, 314, 316, 367 Royal Navy, British, 80, 83, 89, 96, 104-5, 114-19, 126-27, 129, 207, 226, 251, 316, 385-86 in nineteenth century, 154-55 in World War I, 267 in World War II, 341, 367 Rudolf II, Holy Roman Emperor, 39, 41 Ruhr crisis (1923), 277 Rumania, 218, 277, 283, 319, 339, 361, 373, 398 Rusk, Dean, 382, 390 Russia, czarist, xix agricultural production in, 234-36 armaments production in, 263 army in, 94-95, 172-74 British blockade of, 174 in Crimean War, 173-77 eighteenth-century modernization in, 95 European trade with, 28 foreign investment in, 233, 234 geopolitics of, 93, 94-95 GNP of, 171 governmental weaknesses in, 240-41 immature economy of, 234 industrialization in, 170-72, 177 industrial output of (1860-1913), 233-34 military expansionism in, 15-16 mobilization and deployment problem in, 239-40 Napoleon's army in, 136 navy of, 173 under Nicholas II, 240-41 as peasant society, 234-35, 238 personnel deficiencies in, 238 Poland and, 74 popular unrest in, 236-37 pre-World War I growth of, 232 relative economic decline in, 237-38 INDEX serfdom abolished in, 177 social conditions in, 236-38 southern frontier of, 119-20 Swedish war with, 106-7 in World War I, 257, 261-65 Russian Orthodox Church, 15, 16 Russo-Japanese War, 247, 252 Ryswick, Treaty of (1697), 103 Saarland, 313 Sadat, Anwar, 394 Safavid dynasty, Saint-Arnaud, Armand-Jacques de, 175 Salisbury, Robert Gascoyne-Cecil, Lord, 195, 231 Samoa, 229, 247 Sarehat Islam, 286 Saudi Arabia, 389, 516 Savoy, 102 Schleswig-Holstein affair (1864), 153 Schlieffen Plan, 254 Schmidt, Helmut, 486 Scotland, 14, 60 Scotland, Act of Union with (1707), 96 SEATO (Southeast Asia Treaty Organization), 389 Second Anglo-Dutch War, 101 Second Coalition, War of, 94, 125 Selective Service Act (1948), 378 Selective Service and Training Act (1940), 331 Senate, U.S., 277 Serbia, 218, 219, 239, 253-54 Servan-Schreiber, Jean-Jacques, 433 Seven Years War, xxiv, 85, 88, 92, 93, 94, 95, 113-15, 116 Shaw, George Bernard, 533 Shi'ite Muslims, 11, 12 Siam (Thailand), 220, 389, 441 Siemens corporation, 210-11 Singapore, 155, 287, 319, 347, 416, 441 Singer company, 234, 243 Slim, William, 354 Smith, Adam, 20, 30, 152, 539 Smoot-Hawley Tariff (1930), 282, 329 Social Darwinism, 246, 392 Social Democracy, 214 Social Democrats, German, 480, 486 Solidarity movement, 509 Somalia, 341, 396-97 SOMUA-35 tank, 313 South Africa, 279, 505, 524 Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO), 389 Soviet Military Encyclopedia, 513 Soviet Union, 285, 290, 302-3, 314, 488-514 agricultural production in, 321-22, 323, 430, 431, 490-92 arms buildup in, 324-27 Asian "flank" of, 510 Brezhnev Doctrine in, 379 China and, 447, 509-10 Chinese split with, 397-400, 402, 407-8, 412, 419 "command economy" in, 321-23 INDEX contradictory policies in, 488-89 conventional weapons in, 507-13 declining growth rates in, 430 demographic trends in, 496-97, 502 East Germany and, 477-78, 480 economic weaknesses in, 489-90 energy supplies in, 493-94 food subsidies in, 490, 491 France and, 485-86 German invasion of, 341-42, 348-49 "German problem" and, 373-74 gigantism in, 323, 324-25 global coalition war potential of, 513 grains imported by, 490-91 high technology in, 494-96 industrialization in, 322-23 industrial production in, 429-30 industrial stagnation in, 492-94 interwar period in, 285, 320-27 Japan and, 301, 302-3 League of Nations and, 290, 326, 335 military leadership in, 325 military manpower in, 502 military spending in (current), 498-500, 513-14 military spending in (interwar), 324-25 military strength of, 499-500, 503, 513-14 nationality problem in, 502-3 naval expansion in, 386-87, 396, 511 nuclear weapons in, 503-7 "outward thrust" foreign policy of, 391, 396 overseas bases of, 511-12 party bureaucrats in, 498 personal consumption in, 322, 430 political obstacles in, 498-99 post-World War II borders of, 361, 373-74 post-World War II economic growth in, 429-31 post-World War II recovery in, 362-64 purges in, 323-24, 325 relative economic standing of, 430-32 SDI program and, 501 Sino-Russian war potential and, 450-51, 509-10 territorial security for, 512-13 weapons technology in, 500-502 western Europe and, 518-19 western imports in, 495-96 work force in, 322-23, 325, 497 in World War II, 341-42, 348-49, 352-53, 354, 355-56, 361-62 Spain, Imperial, xxiii French invasion of, 133, 134 overseas explorations by, 27, 28, 29 Spanish-American War, 242, 246, 249 Spanish Civil War, 292, 294, 312, 314, 325, 326, 336, 337 Spanish Succession, War of, xxiv, 87, 90, 104-6 Speer, Albert, 356 Spencer, Herbert, 248 Sputnik, 388 SS-3 missile, 388 SS-20 missile, 396, 479 675 Stalin, Joseph, 291, 324, 327, 335, 337, 339, 363, 365, 370, 371, 373, 389 agricultural policy of, 321-22 appeasement policy of, 326 in Berlin crisis, 378 China and, 397, 398 conformism under, 364 diplomacy of, 325-26 navy expanded under, 386 in World War II, 342, 349, 361 Standard Oil, 243 State Department, U.S., 246, 330, 381, 523, 524 Stavka, 265 Stead, W T., 245 Stealth bomber, 523 steam engine, 145, 147, 150 Stimson, Henry, 328, 334 Stolypin, Pyotr, 237 Stone, Norman, 236-37 Strategic Air Command, 387 Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT I) (1972), 395-96, 409 Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT II) (1979), 396, 410 Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) ("Star Wars"), 486, 494, 501, 504 Stresemann, Gustav, 278, 303 Suez Canal, 368, 401, 424 Sukarno, Achmed, 287, 381, 394 Suleiman I, 10, 11 Sully, Duc de, see Béthune, Maximilien de Sunday Times (London), 483 Sung dynasty, Sunni Muslims, 11 Sun Yat-sen, 286 Sweden, 319, 379, 445 foreign entrepreneurs in, 64 Gustavus' reforms in, 64-65 military power of, 65-67 Russian war with, 106-7 Switzerland, 379, 445 Syria, 273, 366, 391, 396 T-54 battle tank, 508 Taiwan, 300, 383, 389, 398, 400, 410, 413, 416, 441, 447, 450, 469, 518 Takahashi, Korekiyo, 300 Tanzania, 400 Tartars, 16 Taylor, A.J.P., 286, 288 TB-3 strategic bomber, 325 Testament Politique (Richelieu), 71 Teutonic Knights, 31 Thailand (Siam), 220, 389, 441 Third World countries, xx agricultural production in, 525-26 in Cold War, 390-95, 396 Industrial Revolution and, 147-50 inequalities in wealth of, 415-16 military spending in, 443 post-World War II industrialization in, 415-16 Soviet Union and, 511-12 trading states in, 416 in United Nations, 391, 392-93 676 Thirty Years War, 36, 39, 41, 44, 47-48, 50, 52, 58, 62, 66, 72 Three Emperors' League, 189, 190 Three World Empires, theory of, 196 Thucydides, 198 Tilak, Bal Gangadhar, 286 Times (London), 176 Tirpitz, Alfred von, 196, 211, 212, 253, 387 Tito (Josip Broz), 375, 377, 389, 393, 394 Tocqueville, Alexis de, 95, 178, 195, 343, 365 Togo, HeihachirO, 209 Tokugawa clan, 14-15 Touré, Sékou, 394 Toyota, 417 trace italienne, 45 trade, world, 414-15, 416 EEC in, 428-29 Pacific region in, 441-42 Trade and Navigation Acts, British, 115 trading states, 416, 445 Trans-Siberian Railway, 510, 512 Treasury bonds, U.S., 466 Treasury Department, U.S., 245 Trident submarine, 483, 506 Tripartite Pact (1940), 342 Triple Alliance (1882), 188, 190, 203-4, 218, 221, 224, 250, 251 Tromp, Maarten, 87 Truman, Harry, 371-72, 378, 380-81, 382, 383, 387 Truman Doctrine, 371-72, 376, 381 Tudeh Party, 380 Tukhachevsky, Mikhail, 324, 325 Tunisia, 191, 286, 348, 366 Turkey, 376, 379-80, 381, 389, 473 in World War I, 257, 263 see also Ottoman Empire U-2 incident, 390 U-boats, 259, 260, 267, 268, 269, 271, 308, 341, 347, 348, 353, 354 Ulam, A., 380-81, 411-12 UNESCO, 411 United Nations, 372, 407, 411 in Korean War, 383 Security Council of, 379, 393 Third World nations in, 391, 392-93 United Provinces, xxiv, 67-70, 72 in Anglo-Dutch conflict of 1672-1674, 101-2 financial system of, 78 France and, 87-88 geopolitics of, 86-88 Great Britain and, 81, 87-88 as rentier economy, 78 see also Netherlands, Revolt of United States, 514-35 activist diplomacy in, 246 agricultural production in, 242, 243, 245, 525-26 armaments production in, 271-72 army of (1898-1914), 248 banking crisis in (1907), 245-46 capital outflows from, 433-34 INDEX Chinese rapprochement with, 408-9, 456-57 Civil War in, xviii, 144, 178-82 as debtor nation, 526-28 defense manufacturers in, 442-43 "defense reform" debate in, 522, 523 dollar value fluctuations in, 434-35, 527-28 early manufacturing growth in, 93-94 East Asia and, 517 as emerging power, 93-94 European commitments of, 518-19 federal government deficits in, 434-35, 523, 527-28 financial system in, 281-82 foreign funds in, 527-28 foreign-policy decision making in, 524-25 foreign trade in, 244-45 geopolitics of, 93-94 gigantism in, 243 GNP of, 357 Great Depression in, 329, 331-32 Great Power status of, 248-49 high technology in, 433, 525, 528, 530 imports and exports in, 327-28, 329, 358, 526-27 industrial erosion in, 528, 529-30 interservice rivalry in, 522 interwar period in, 327-33 isolationism in, 277, 328, 329-30 Japanese investments in, 466 in Korean War, 382-83, 417 Latin America and, 516-17 low productivity in, 432-33, 434 manufacturing boom in, 327-29 Middle East and, 515-16, 524 military manpower in, 521 military procurement in, 522 military spending in (1938), 331 military spending in (current), 522-23, 531-33 Monroe Doctrine in, 246 "natural" world share for, 533-34 naval buildup in, 247-48 nineteenth-century growth of, 178-79, 242-45 as nuclear power, 515 Open Door policy of, 246-47 overstretch in, 360-61, 515-21 Pacific region and, 441 political consensus in, 531 post-World War II power of, 357-61 protectionism in, 526 rearmament in, 331-32 relative economic decline of, 432-35, 514-17, 525-35 service sector in, 528 transportation revolution in, 244 underutilized productive capacity in, 331 in Vietnam War, 403-8 world financial system and, 245-46 in World War I, 270-72 World War I economy of, 279-80 in World War II, 341, 342, 343, 347-48, 350, 352, 353, 354-56 677 INDEX United States-Japan security treaty (1951), 468 United States Steel, 243 Utrecht, Treaty of (1713), 105 Venezuela, 227, 246 Versailles, Peace of (1783), 119 Versailles, Treaty of (1919), 275, 277, 290, 303, 305, 306, 336 Vervins, Peace of (1598), 38 Victor Emmanuel III, King of Italy, 298 Victoria, Queen of England, 146, 226, 227 Vietcong, 400, 403, 405-6 Vietminh, 381, 383, 400 Vietnam, 445, 450, 512 Vietnam, North, 391, 400 Vietnam War, 400, 403-8 military spending in, 406-7 military superiority in, 405-6 psychological impact of, 404-5 Sino-Soviet split and, 407-8 Vinci, Leonardo da, 23 Vladivostock agreement (1975), 396 Vogel, Ezra, 467 Volkswagen, 425-26 Voroshilov, Kliment, 325 Wafd Party, 286 Wallenstein, Albrecht von, 39, 47, 65, 72 Wall Street crash of 1929, 282, 329 Wall Street Journal, 462-63 Walpole, Robert, 108 War of 1812, 130, 137 War Powers Act (1973), 409 Warrior, H.M.S., 169 Warsaw Pact, 379, 390, 443, 507, 508, 509, 511, 519 warship tonnage, 203 Wars of the Roses, 59 Washington Conference (1921-1922), 277 Washington Treaty (1922), 300 Watergate scandal, 404, 409 Wealth of Nations, The (Smith), 152 Weigley, R F., 181 Weinberger, Caspar, 522 Welby, Lord, 210 Wellesley, Arthur, Duke of Wellington, 72, 98, 135, 136, 137 West Africa, 194, 229, 231 West Indies, 97, 114, 116, 120 Westinghouse, 463 Westminister, Statute of (1931), 315 Westmoreland, William C, 405 Westphalia, Peace of (1648), 36, 41, 59, 65 Weygand, Maxime, 313 White, William, 243 Wilhelm I, King of Prussia, 182, 184 Wilhelm II, Kaiser, 211, 213, 245, 250, 252 William III, King of England (William of Orange), 87, 97, 102, 103 Willmott, H P., 302 Wilson, Woodrow, 271, 284, 287, 392 Wolsey, Thomas, 60 World Bank, 435-36, 456 World Communist Parties' meeting, 398 World Economic Conference (1933), 283, 335 World Economic Survey (League of Nations), 299 World War I, xix, 166, 256-74 alliance diplomacy and, 249-53, 256 Allies' superiority in, 258-61 armaments production in, 262-63 Austro-German combination in, 257 casualties in, 261, 264, 266, 268, 269, 273, 278 colonialism and, 286-88 commercial gains in, 279-80 economic distortions caused by, 280-81 economic/military lag time in, 271-72 financing of, 281-82 German advantages in, 260-62 logistical difficulties in, 260-61 maritime blockade in, 259 material costs of, 279 military spending in, 262, 274 national economies in, 262-63 naval forces in, 259-60 "old diplomacy" and, 284, 287-88 population losses in, 278-79 productive resources in, 258, 271-72, 274 Russian and French burdens in, 262 U.S entry into, 270-72 U.S financial aid in, 268 war plans in, 253-54, 256 World War II, xx, 339-43, 347-57 aircraft production in, 353-54 armaments production in, 353-57 atomic bomb in, 356-57 Axis strategical errors in, 349-50, 352 casualties in, 349, 356, 361, 362 critical campaigns in, 353 eastern front in, 348-49, 352 Lend-Lease in, 341 outbreak of, 339-41 Pacific counteroffensive in, 348, 350, 356-57 productive forces in, 354-57 tank production in, 353 Worldwatch Institute, 443 Wright, Q., 223 Yamamoto, Isoroku, 303, 332 Yamato, 350 Yemen, North, 391, 400 Yemen, South, 396, 512 Young Plan (1929), 278 Yugoslavia, 275, 277, 337, 361, 375, 379, 380, 390 Zaire, 410, 415 Zeppelins, 259 Zero fighter aircraft, 301 Zhao Ziyang, 453 Zhukov, Georgy, 327, 364, 385 "Zimmermann Telegram," 271 Zollverein (German Customs Union), 161, 164 About the Author P A U L K E N N E D Y was born in the north of England, at Wallsend-onTyne, in 1945 He attended the University of Newcastle, where he graduated with first class honors in history, and received his doctorate from Oxford Professor Kennedy has researched and lectured at a variety of places in Europe and North America He is a Fellow of the Royal Historical Society, a former Visiting Fellow of the Institute for Ad vanced Study at Princeton, and of the Alexander von Humboldt Foun dation in West Germany In 1983 Kennedy moved to Yale to become the J Richardson Dilworth Professor of History, with a focus on mod ern strategic and international affairs A frequent reviewer for and contributor to The New York Times, The New Republic, The Washing ton Post, The Atlantic and The Economist, Paul Kennedy lives in Hamden, Connecticut, with his wife, Catherine, and their three sons