Climate Change and Water Resources in South Asia Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK Climate Change and Water Resources in South Asia Edited by M. Monirul Qader Mirza Adaptation and Impacts Research Group (AIRG) Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada c/o-Institute for Environmental Studies (IES) University of Toronto Canada Q. K. Ahmad Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad (BUP) Niketon, Gulshan-1 Dhaka, Bangladesh A.A. BALKEMA PUBLISHERS LEIDEN / LONDON / NEW Y ORK / PHILADELPHIA / SINGAPORE Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK All rights reserved. No part of this publication or the information contained herein may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, by photocopying, recording or otherwise, without written prior permission from the publishers. Although all care is taken to ensure the integrity and quality of this publication and the information herein, no responsibility is assumed by the publishers nor the authors for any damage to property or persons as a result of operation or use of this publication and/or the information contained herein. Published by: A.A. Balkema Publishers, Leiden, The Netherlands, a member of Taylor & Francis Group plc www.balkema.nl, www.tandf.co.uk, www.crcpress.com Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data ISBN 0 415 36442 6 Printed in Great Britain Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK In memory of my uncles M. Akramuzzaman, Dr Mirza Muzibul Huq and Dr M. Ashrafuzzaman. M. Monirul Qader Mirza To my sons Rushdy and Urfi and daughter-in-law Farzin. Q. K. Ahmad Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK Table of Contents Foreword R. K. Pachauri xi Foreword Don MacIver xiii Preface xv About the Editors xix About the Authors xxi Acronyms xxiii 1 CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER RESOURCES IN SOUTH ASIA: AN INTRODUCTION M. Monirul Qader Mirza Q. K. Ahmad 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Water Availability and Demand in South Asia 2 1.3 Climate Change and Water Resources 8 1.4 Climate Change and Future Water Challenges 8 2 HYDROLOGIC MODELING APPROACHES FOR CLIMATE IMPACT ASSESSMENT IN SOUTH ASIA M. Monirul Qader Mirza 2.1 Introduction 23 2.2 Hydrologic Models 23 2.3 Advantages and Limitations of Hydrologic Models in Climate Change Application 32 2.4 Application of Hydrologic Models for Climate Change Impact Assessment in Bangladesh 35 2.5 Application of Hydrologic Model in India 45 2.6 Application of Models in Pakistan 46 2.7 Summary and Concluding Remarks 48 Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK 3 ARE FLOODS GETTING WORSE IN THE GANGES, BRAHMAPUTRA AND MEGHNA BASINS? M. Monirul Qader Mirza R. A. Warrick N. J. Ericksen G. J. Kenny 3.1 Introduction 55 3.2 Hydro-Meteorology of the GBM Basins 57 3.3 The Flood Problem 59 3.4 The Data 63 3.5 Statistical Analyses Methods 65 3.6 Results 65 3.7 Discussion 67 3.8 Conclusions 69 4 CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER RESOURCES ASSESSMENT IN SOUTH ASIA: ADDRESSING UNCERTAINTIES Gary Yohe Kenneth Strzepek 4.1 Introduction 77 4.2 Defining Uncertainties 78 4.3 Hydro-Climatic Analysis of Flooding in Bangladesh 80 4.4 A Hydrologic Model for the Rivers 83 4.5 Future Climate Scenarios 86 4.6 Assessing Adaptation Under Conditions of Profound Uncertainty 89 4.7 Concluding Remarks 99 5 THE IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RIVER DISCHARGE IN BANGLADESH M. Monirul Qader Mirza 5.1 Introduction 103 5.2 Objectives 107 5.3 Methodology 107 5.4 Estimation of Changes in Annual Discharge 115 5.5 Effects on Mean Peak Discharge 119 5.6 Effects on Depth and Spatial Extent of Flooding 123 5.7 Socio-Economic Effects of Changes in Inundation Categories 131 5.8 Concluding Remarks 132 viii TABLE OF CONTENTS Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK 6 CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLACIER LAKE OUTBURST FLOODS AND THE ASSOCIATED VULNERABILITY IN NEPAL AND BHUTAN Motilal Ghimire 6.1 Introduction 137 6.2 GLOF Hydrology 138 6.3 Studies About Glacier Lakes and Their Outburst Events in Nepal and Bhutan 139 6.4 GLOF Events’ Impact, Vulnerability and Adaptation 144 6.5 Glacier Retreat, GLOF Events and Climate Change 147 6.6 Concluding Remarks 150 7 CLIMATIC CHANGE - IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA’S WATER RESOURCES M. Lal 7.1 Background 155 7.2 India’s Geography, Population and Water Needs 156 7.3 Climate of India 160 7.4 Floods and Droughts 171 7.5 Water Resources of India 177 7.6 Future Demand and Supply of Water 188 7.7 Government Policy and Legislative Tools 189 7.8 Coping with Climate Change and Adaptation 190 7.9 Research Needs 193 7.10 Concluding Remarks 193 8 CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN PAKISTAN Asad Sarwar Qureshi 8.1 Introduction 197 8.2 Water Resources in Pakistan 200 8.3 Major Challenges 207 8.4 Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources: The Way Forward 218 8.5 Concluding Remarks 228 TABLE OF CONTENTS ix Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK 9 CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN BANGLADESH Hossain Shahid Mozaddad Faruque Md. Liakath Ali 9.1 Introduction 231 9.2 Water Resources Problems and Their Management 232 9.3 Water Management Practices 237 9.4 Major Studies, Policies and Plans 242 9.5 Climate Change and Water Resources Sector in Bangladesh 244 9.6 Future Framework of Management 246 9.7 Concluding Remarks 252 10 ADAPTATION OPTIONS FOR MANAGING WATER-RELATED EXTREME EVENTS UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME: BANGLADESH PERSPECTIVES Ahsan Uddin Ahmed 10.1 Introduction 255 10.2 Water-Related Extreme Events and Climate Variability 255 10.3 Climate Change and Its Implications for Water Resources 260 10.4 Coping with Climate Variability 266 10.5 Towards Framework of Future Adaptations 269 10.6 Concluding Remarks 275 11 USING THE ADAPTATION POLICY FRAMEWORK TO ASSESS CLIMATE RISKS AND RESPONSE MEASURES IN SOUTH ASIA: THE CASE OF FLOODS AND DROUGHTS IN BANGLADESH AND INDIA M. Monirul Qader Mirza Ian Burton 11.1 Introduction 279 11.2 Adaptation Policy Framework 282 11.3 Vulnerability and Adaptation: A Brief Synthesis 284 11.4 Present Vulnerability and Adaptation Measures and Policies in South Asia: Urban Flooding in Dhaka 287 11.5 Vulnerability of Gujarat to Drought Hazard 296 11.6 Stakeholders’ Participation 299 11.7 Present Adaptation Policies 303 11.8 Future Climate Change, Risks and Adaptation 305 11.9 Adaptation Policy Framework: Opportunities and Challenges 307 11.10 Concluding Remarks 310 xTABLE OF CONTENTS Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK Foreword South Asia is home to a population of more than a billion and a quarter. The original settlers on the subcontinent made this region their home essentially on the attraction of rich and fertile land and abundant water resources. With rapid growth in the population, particularly during the last century, the scarcity of water resources has reached an alarming level, making this a subject deserving of deep attention and an area where major policy initiatives become essential. Agriculture is still a significant contributor to the GDP of the countries of South Asia, and well over half the population of the region is dependent on agriculture or agriculture-related activities. The dominance of the monsoon as a major source of water supply and the seasonal nature of precipitation in the region, makes the management of water through irrigation a crucial determinant of agricultural activity. With industrial growth and urbanization, the demand for water in the industrial sector and in towns and cities is also increasing rapidly. The problem is compounded by periodic droughts in certain years and excessive floods particularly during the monsoon season. Both these phenomena lead to large-scale destruction of infrastructure, property and lives of livestock and human beings. The problem of climate change is likely to amplify these problems in the future. The Third Assessment Report of the IPCC clearly highlights the likelihood of droughts and floods increasing in the future. The Fourth Assessment Report is likely to shed further light on this problem, particularly given the fact that water has been included as a cross-cutting theme for this report. Possible shifts in the onset and adequacy of monsoons, the retreat of glaciers and changes in magnitude and variability in temperature will introduce significant changes in water resources availability and uses in South Asia. The anthology “Climate Change and Water Resources in South Asia” is a timely contribution to improving knowledge on the impacts of climate variability and changes in water resources in South Asia and related adaptation measures. The editors and the contributors are to be congratulated on an important publication. R. K. Pachauri Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Geneva, Switzerland & Director-General, The Energy & Resources Institute (TERI), New Delhi, India Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK Foreword There is a growing concern across the world about climate variability and change, and associated vulnerability, impacts and adaptation for various economic sectors. Over the last decade, the Adaptation and Impacts Research Group (AIRG), Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada has contributed significantly to the science of vulnerability, impacts and adaptation (VIA) research nationally and internationally. In Canada, the AIRG led and contributed to a number of climate change and VIA projects that include: Canada Country Study; Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios Project; CCME Climate Change Indicators Project; Natural Hazards and Disasters in Canada; Climate Change-Human and Animal Diseases; Climate Change and Water Resources in the Great Lakes and Climate Change and the Canadian Energy Sector. One of the mandates of the AIRG is to contribute to international research projects and initiatives in the field of climate change and VIA research. The AIRG significantly contributed to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations (UN); the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment of the UN; the Canada-China Cooperation in Climate Change (C5) Project; The AIACC AS25 Project, THORPEX-A Global Atmospheric Program and the STARDEX Project. In addition to East Asia and the Caribbean, South Asia is also becoming an area of interest of the AIRG in terms of climate change and VIA studies. This anthology is the third initiative of our international commitment towards South Asia. Previously, Dr. M. Monirul Mirza edited the anthology “Flood Problem and Management in South Asia”and “The Ganges Water Diversion: Envronmental Effects and Implications” published by the Kluwer Academic Publishers, the Netherlands. South Asia is a region of diverse climates. Livelihood and sustenance of development are highly climate driven. Floods, droughts and cyclones regularly batter economic sectors and infrastructure and cause deaths to human and livestock population. Future changes in the South Asian climates and the sea level rise especially the monsoon, will have significant impacts on water supply and demand, floods and droughts, changes in soil moisture, soil degradation, saline water intrusion, pollution of surface and ground waters and faster melting of the Himalayan glaciers. These changes will have profound effects on various economic sectors and the livelihoods of millions of people, especially the poorest section of the South Asian society. In order to reduce vulnerability, there is an urgent need to design and implement adaptation measures. It is also warranted that adaptation be integrated into national development plans of the South Asian nations, as a continuous process. These issues are discussed in the 11 Chapters of this anthology “Climate Change and Water Resources in South Asia”. It is indeed a significant contribution from which scientists, vulnerability, adaptation and impact researchers and Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK [...]... between 19 77 and 19 90, the rate of recession was went up to 28 m/year (Table 1. 4) Table 1. 4 Retreating Himalayan Glaciers Glacier Magnitude of Retreat (m) Period (years) Average Retreat (m/year) Gangotri Pindari Milam Poting Triloknath Bara Shigri Chota Shigri Shankulpa 364 2,840 1, 350 262 400 650 60 518 13 (19 77 and 19 90) 12 0 (18 4 5 -1 966) 10 7 (18 4 9 -1 957) 50 (19 0 6 -1 957) 26 (19 6 9 -1 995) 18 (19 7 7 -1 995) 9 (19 8 6 -1 995)... times during the cropping season Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK 14 CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER RESOURCES IN SOUTH ASIA SRES A1 Storyline A2 Storyline A1 Family A1F1 A1T B1 Storyline A2 Family A1B B2 Storyline B1 Family A2 B2 Family B1 B2 Fig 1. 10 SRES storylines and six illustrative “marker” scenarios Source: Taylor et al., 2003 Note: A1: Rapid Convergent Growth- The A1 scenarios... Greenhouse Gas Increases Increases in Radiative Forcing Increases in Temperature Snow and Ice Melt Sea Level Rise Backwater Effect by Tidal Flow Changes in Precipitation and Evapo-Transpiration Changes in Drought Changes in Soil Moisture Changes in Runoff Changes in River Flow Changes in Floods Changes in Ground Water Fig 1. 6 Relationship between climate change and hydrology Shaded boxes indicate important... on economic and human sectors 90 80 Drought area (%) 70 Rainfall less normal (%) 60 50 40 30 20 10 82 19 74 19 66 19 51 19 20 19 11 19 04 19 99 18 18 73 0 Fig 1. 7 Departure of rainfall from normal and drought affected area in India Normal rainfall for the period 18 7 1- 1 994 = 853 mm (Data source: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM)) Flooding is largely dependent on extreme rainfall events... space and time There is also a clear association between El Niño events and weak monsoons During the period 18 7 1- 2 0 01, 11 of 22 drought years were El Niño years (Kumar et al., 2003) Between 19 01 and 19 90, rainfall was deficient in all seven strong El Niño cases Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK 2 CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER RESOURCES IN SOUTH ASIA Fig 1. 1 South Asia region and major... UK 12 CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER RESOURCES IN SOUTH ASIA uncertain and, for a given change in climate, will vary considerably between catchments (Arnell et al., 19 96) Fig 1. 8 The Ganges basin and Farakka Barrage Boundaries of the Brahmaputra and Meghna basins are also shown Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK M M Q MIRZA AND Q K AHMAD 13 Box 1. 4 Bangladesh Floods in 19 87, 19 88 and 19 98... London, UK 8 CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER RESOURCES IN SOUTH ASIA population (mainly middle class consumers), size of the economy and versatile investment opportunities for foreign and overseas Indian investors According to one estimate, industrial water demand in India doubles every ten years [Central Water Commission (CWC), 19 89] In Bangladesh, the rate of increase in industrial water demand has been... Agency Water Resources Planning Organization Water and Power Development Authority Water and Energy Commission Secretariat World Meteorological Organization Water Resources Development and Training Centre Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK 1 Climate Change and Water Resources in South Asia: An Introduction M MONIRUL QADER MIRZA Q K AHMAD 1. 1 INTRODUCTION The South Asia region contains... reduce water demand and structural reforms are required to improve water management Due to rapid urbanization, domestic water demand is gradually increasing With rapid economic and urban development water, demand will continue to increase Climate change will act as an additional factor to the increasing drinking water demand Water- borne diseases contribute to high infant mortality in South Asia where... driven indirectly by Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK 6 CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER RESOURCES IN SOUTH ASIA increases in population through: the demand for food (cereals and corns), and the demand for non-food (industrial) and farm products The increased demand for food may be met by taking one or more of the following measures suggested by Kulshrestha (19 93): expanding the rainfed . xxiii 1 CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER RESOURCES IN SOUTH ASIA: AN INTRODUCTION M. Monirul Qader Mirza Q. K. Ahmad 1. 1 Introduction 1 1.2 Water Availability and Demand in South Asia 2 1. 3 Climate Change. 15 0 7 CLIMATIC CHANGE - IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA’S WATER RESOURCES M. Lal 7 .1 Background 15 5 7.2 India’s Geography, Population and Water Needs 15 6 7.3 Climate of India 16 0 7.4 Floods and Droughts 17 1 7.5 Water. uses in South Asia. The anthology Climate Change and Water Resources in South Asia is a timely contribution to improving knowledge on the impacts of climate variability and changes in water resources